DEMOGRAPHIC ASPECTS AND CONSEQUENCES OF THE AIDS EPIDEMIC (p. 161bis)

Figure 27. -- Cumulative net fertility according to age of the mother, (A) before the epidemic et (B) during a stable epidemic, with the following hypotheses: (A) Life expectancy is 50 years before the epidemic (ouest model), total female fertility african is 6.7 children per woman, HIV prevalence among population aged 15 and over reaches 15 %, mother to child transmission is 30 %, mean survival time (incub.+AIDS) of an adult is 10 years and 2 years for an infected new-born. The hypothesis concerns the HIV+ prevalence of population aged 15 and over. Prevalence during infancy is computed according to the vertical transmission and mean survival time of infected new-born. distinguishing the contribution of seronegative mothers and seropositive mothers.