Tables of reproduction (mortality, fertility and stable population) before the HIV epidemic

African Populations and AIDS

Tables of reproduction (mortality, fertility and stable population) before the HIV epidemic

Reminder: hypotheses before the epidemic Life expectancy=50 ans Men 49.00 years, women 51.00 years( model west) Fertility (african): 6.70 births/woman corresponding to 12.06 births/man Mean age at crude childbearing : women 27.5 years, men 43.8 years Mean age at net childbearing : women 27.0 years, men 41.2 years which conduct to : a net reproduction rate of 2.43 daughters per girl or 3.81 sons per boy growth rate of 3.41% per year decomposed into 46.7 per thousand per year for natality and 12.6 for mortality
Men						Women
Age	Prob. of death	Sur- vivors	Deaths	Life expectancy	Total stable population	Prob. of death	Sur- vivors	Deaths	Life expectancy	Fertility	Cumulative fertility children per woman	Cumulative net fert. daughters/ girl	Total stable pop.
Age	Qx X100000	lx X100000	d(x,x+1) X100000	ex	blx exp(-rx) p.million	Qx X100000	lx X100000	d(x,x+1) X100000	ex	fx X1000	Fx X1000	FNx X1000	blx exp(-rx) p.million
0	12871	100000	12871	49.0	46747	11366	100000	11366	51.0	0	0.00	0.00	46747
1	2466	87129	2148	55.2	39363	2593	88634	2298	56.5	0	0.00	0.00	40043
2	1925	84981	1636	55.5	37104	2039	86336	1761	56.9	0	0.00	0.00	37696
3	1342	83345	1119	55.6	35169	1432	84575	1211	57.1	0	0.00	0.00	35687
4	716	82227	589	55.4	33532	770	83364	642	56.9	0	0.00	0.00	33996
5	400	81638	327	54.8	32174	430	82722	355	56.4	0	0.00	0.00	32602
6	409	81311	333	54.0	30970	437	82367	360	55.6	0	0.00	0.00	31372
7	398	80979	322	53.2	29808	426	82007	349	54.9	0	0.00	0.00	30186
8	368	80656	296	52.4	28693	398	81658	325	54.1	0	0.00	0.00	29049
9	317	80360	255	51.6	27628	352	81333	286	53.3	0	0.00	0.00	27962
10	273	80105	219	50.8	26616	311	81047	252	52.5	1	1.70	0.67	26929
11	260	79886	208	49.9	25652	297	80795	240	51.7	7	15.40	6.04	25944
12	261	79679	208	49.0	24727	299	80554	241	50.8	21	58.20	22.75	24998
13	276	79471	219	48.2	23834	316	80314	253	50.0	43	145.55	56.74	24087
14	305	79252	242	47.3	22971	347	80060	278	49.1	69	287.29	111.70	23205
15	335	79010	265	46.4	22132	383	79782	306	48.3	97	485.20	188.11	22348
16	363	78745	286	45.6	21317	414	79477	329	47.5	121	732.93	283.32	21515
17	400	78459	314	44.8	20527	447	79148	354	46.7	139	1016.99	391.98	20707
18	446	78145	349	43.9	19759	482	78794	380	45.9	149	1321.69	507.93	19923
19	502	77797	390	43.1	19010	519	78414	407	45.1	152	1633.99	626.11	19161
20	545	77407	422	42.3	18280	549	78007	428	44.3	151	1944.45	742.93	18422
21	568	76985	437	41.6	17570	570	77579	442	43.6	148	2247.28	856.20	17706
22	587	76548	449	40.8	16884	590	77137	455	42.8	143	2540.07	965.05	17014
23	602	76098	458	40.0	16222	611	76681	468	42.1	138	2822.40	1069.35	16346
24	614	75640	465	39.3	15583	630	76213	480	41.3	133	3094.50	1169.23	15701
25	622	75175	468	38.5	14967	644	75733	488	40.6	128	3357.04	1264.96	15078
26	629	74708	470	37.8	14375	654	75245	492	39.8	124	3611.03	1356.96	14478
27	637	74238	473	37.0	13805	665	74753	497	39.1	120	3857.81	1445.75	13901
28	647	73765	477	36.2	13257	680	74256	505	38.4	117	4098.57	1531.76	13345
29	658	73288	482	35.5	12729	697	73751	514	37.6	115	4333.89	1615.23	12809
30	681	72806	496	34.7	12221	714	73237	523	36.9	112	4563.68	1696.14	12293
31	712	72310	515	33.9	11730	731	72714	531	36.1	109	4787.15	1774.24	11795
32	737	71795	529	33.2	11255	746	72183	539	35.4	105	5002.89	1849.06	11316
33	756	71266	539	32.4	10797	761	71644	545	34.7	101	5209.25	1920.08	10855
34	769	70727	544	31.7	10356	775	71099	551	33.9	95	5404.73	1986.81	10411
35	799	70183	561	30.9	9931	793	70547	559	33.2	89	5587.99	2048.87	9983
36	844	69622	588	30.1	9521	812	69988	569	32.4	83	5757.93	2105.94	9571
37	882	69034	609	29.4	9124	829	69420	575	31.7	76	5913.62	2157.79	9175
38	914	68425	625	28.6	8740	843	68844	580	31.0	69	6054.36	2204.25	8794
39	939	67800	637	27.9	8370	854	68264	583	30.2	61	6179.67	2245.26	8427
40	987	67163	663	27.2	8013	875	67681	592	29.5	53	6289.28	2280.81	8074
41	1055	66500	702	26.4	7667	904	67089	607	28.7	46	6383.14	2310.97	7735
42	1109	65799	730	25.7	7332	926	66482	616	28.0	38	6461.46	2335.89	7408
43	1149	65069	748	25.0	7007	940	65866	619	27.3	31	6524.77	2355.85	7093
44	1175	64322	756	24.3	6694	948	65247	618	26.5	24	6574.14	2371.26	6790
45	1231	63566	783	23.6	6393	979	64629	633	25.8	18	6611.10	2382.68	6500
46	1318	62783	828	22.8	6103	1032	63996	661	25.0	13	6637.70	2390.81	6221
47	1393	61956	863	22.1	5820	1078	63335	683	24.3	9	6656.41	2396.47	5950
48	1455	61093	889	21.4	5546	1114	62653	698	23.5	6	6669.63	2400.42	5688
49	1505	60204	906	20.8	5282	1143	61955	708	22.8	5	6679.25	2403.26	5436
50	1617	59297	959	20.1	5028	1234	61247	756	22.0	4	6686.58	2405.39	5193
51	1775	58338	1036	19.4	4781	1370	60491	829	21.3	3	6692.29	2407.03	4957
52	1899	57303	1088	18.7	4538	1471	59662	878	20.6	2	6696.51	2408.22	4725
53	1990	56214	1119	18.1	4303	1538	58784	904	19.9	1	6699.12	2408.94	4499
54	2047	55096	1128	17.4	4075	1569	57880	908	19.2	0	6700.00	2409.18	4281
55	2178	53968	1175	16.8	3858	1662	56972	947	18.5	0	6700.00	2409.18	4073
56	2383	52793	1258	16.2	3647	1824	56025	1022	17.8	0	6700.00	2409.18	3871
57	2556	51535	1317	15.5	3441	1960	55003	1078	17.1	0	6700.00	2409.18	3672
58	2697	50217	1354	14.9	3240	2073	53925	1118	16.5	0	6700.00	2409.18	3480
59	2806	48863	1371	14.3	3047	2160	52807	1141	15.8	0	6700.00	2409.18	3293
60	3057	47492	1452	13.7	2862	2389	51667	1234	15.1	0	6700.00	2409.18	3114
61	3421	46040	1575	13.2	2682	2723	50432	1373	14.5	0	6700.00	2409.18	2937
62	3711	44465	1650	12.6	2503	2979	49059	1461	13.9	0	6700.00	2409.18	2762
63	3927	42815	1681	12.1	2329	3159	47598	1503	13.3	0	6700.00	2409.18	2589
64	4070	41134	1674	11.5	2163	3262	46094	1504	12.7	0	6700.00	2409.18	2423
65	4398	39460	1735	11.0	2005	3531	44591	1574	12.1	0	6700.00	2409.18	2266
66	4895	37725	1847	10.5	1852	3963	43016	1705	11.5	0	6700.00	2409.18	2112
67	5297	35878	1900	10.0	1703	4317	41311	1783	11.0	0	6700.00	2409.18	1960
68	5605	33978	1905	9.5	1558	4593	39528	1815	10.5	0	6700.00	2409.18	1813
69	5821	32073	1867	9.1	1422	4791	37713	1807	10.0	0	6700.00	2409.18	1672
70	6306	30206	1905	8.6	1294	5270	35906	1892	9.4	0	6700.00	2409.18	1538
71	7065	28301	2000	8.1	1172	6013	34014	2045	8.9	0	6700.00	2409.18	1408
72	7742	26302	2036	7.7	1052	6659	31969	2129	8.5	0	6700.00	2409.18	1279
73	8338	24266	2023	7.3	938	7211	29840	2152	8.0	0	6700.00	2409.18	1154
74	8854	22242	1969	7.0	831	7670	27688	2124	7.6	0	6700.00	2409.18	1035
75	9710	20273	1968	6.6	732	8434	25564	2156	7.2	0	6700.00	2409.18	923
76	10810	18304	1979	6.2	639	9436	23408	2209	6.8	0	6700.00	2409.18	817
77	11696	16326	1910	5.9	551	10250	21199	2173	6.5	0	6700.00	2409.18	715
78	12376	14416	1784	5.7	470	10882	19027	2070	6.2	0	6700.00	2409.18	620
79	12852	12632	1623	5.4	398	11334	16956	1922	5.9	0	6700.00	2409.18	534
80	13598	11009	1497	5.1	335	12058	15034	1813	5.5	0	6700.00	2409.18	458
81	14650	9512	1393	4.8	280	13072	13222	1728	5.2	0	6700.00	2409.18	389
82	15565	8118	1264	4.6	231	13947	11493	1603	4.9	0	6700.00	2409.18	327
83	16345	6855	1120	4.3	188	14684	9890	1452	4.7	0	6700.00	2409.18	272
84	16995	5734	975	4.1	152	15289	8438	1290	4.4	0	6700.00	2409.18	224
85	18231	4760	868	3.8	122	16449	7148	1176	4.1	0	6700.00	2409.18	183
86	19922	3892	775	3.5	97	18050	5972	1078	3.8	0	6700.00	2409.18	148
87	21310	3117	664	3.3	75	19363	4894	948	3.5	0	6700.00	2409.18	117
88	22410	2452	550	3.0	57	20402	3947	805	3.2	0	6700.00	2409.18	91
89	23233	1903	442	2.8	43	21177	3141	665	2.9	0	6700.00	2409.18	70
90	24755	1461	362	2.5	32	22647	2476	561	2.6	0	6700.00	2409.18	54
91	26881	1099	295	2.1	23	24715	1915	473	2.2	0	6700.00	2409.18	40
92	28629	804	230	1.7	16	26409	1442	381	1.8	0	6700.00	2409.18	29
93	30022	574	172	1.2	11	27752	1061	294	1.2	0	6700.00	2409.18	21

Click to get the reproduction tables during the HIV epidemic

Nicolas Brouard Version 1.2, September 15, 1995