Tables of reproduction (mortality, fertility and stable population) during the HIV epidemic

Populations africaines et sida

Tables of reproduction (mortality, fertility and stable population) during the HIV epidemic under some hypotheses

Hypotheses before the HIV epidemic
Life expectancy=50 years
Men 49.00 years, Women 51.00 years (model west)
Fertility (african): 6.70 births/woman corresponding to 12.06 births/man
conducting to:
a net reproduction rate of 2.43 daughters per girl or 3.81 sons per boy
a growth rate of 3.41% per year decomposed into 46.7 pre thousand per year for natality and 12.6 for mortality

Hypotheses during the epidemic:
Prevalence of HIV among population age 15 and over at the stable state=15%,
Mother to child transmission =30 %,
Mean survival time of an infected adults (incub.+aids)=10 years
Mean survival time of an infected new-born (incub.+aids)=2 years
Consequences :
Life expectancy : 36.04 years (men 35.83, women 36.24)
Net reproduction rate : 1.86 daughters/girl
Growth rate : 2.48% per year, 49.8 per thousand per year for natality and 25.0 for mortality (both AIDS and non AIDS cases)
Crude mortality rate for AIDS is 10.9 per thousand per year from which 2.8 for infected new-borns and 8.0 adults,
Prevalence of HIV among pregnant women =18.7 %,
Prevalence of HIV among total population =8.3 %,
Men Women
Age Pr. of
death
Sur-
vivors
Deaths Life
expectancy
HIV
Prevalence
Stable
pop.
with HIV
Total
stable
pop.
Pr. of
death
Sur-
vivors
Deaths Life
expectancy
Cumul. fertil. due to futures HIV neg. womenHIV+
Prevalence
HIV+
stable
pop.
Tot.
stable
pop.
Age Qx
X100000
lx
X100000
d(x,x+1)
X100000
ex yx
X10000
yx*b*lx*
exp(-rx)
p. million
b*lx*
exp(-rx)
p. million
Qx
X100000
lx
X100000
d(x,x+1)
X100000
ex -
X1000
+
X1000
total
- et +
X1000
0142791000001427935.8532264849786128541000001285436.2000532264849786
1385485721330340.7323134341630395487146344640.5000323136642322
2281382418231941.319676439044291283700243741.200019677639652
3190580099152641.511943937015198681263161441.400011944637553
410707857384141.3722553541911197964989141.20007225835905
56197773248140.844149341816457875850840.70004415134632
65437725141940.02688331365687825044539.9000268933565
74807683236839.21652321485067780539439.2000165232555
84177646331938.41030312094477741134638.4000103131596
93477614426437.6618303173827706529437.500061830683
102927588022136.7411294703297677125336.710141129817
112717565820535.826286643097651923635.86062628990
122677545320234.914278853477628326534.923023246728191
132807525121134.012271285057601838434.05605717548027404
143087504123133.101263897717563458333.21092111418111326597
153377481025232.2012566210877505181632.41796185707182025745
163937455829331.3163924949141274235104831.8263122751008250424841
175327426539530.412430024241172973187126531.2355223771299310223889
187557386955829.630571823521202371922145530.8448344821564358322900
1910327331275628.8531121022770228670467161130.4539485871797393221887
2013197255595728.1780171521983250468856172430.1625636881991415320862
21159071598113927.51035218921161267567132179629.9705787832145425619841
22185270460130526.91283260720314280965336183529.7779938722261426018836
23209669154145026.41517295019448290663501184629.58481089562341418117858
24231667705156825.91730321418574297261656183229.491212210342388403916914
25250866137165925.51919339717698300359823179629.397113511072406385116009
26267364478172325.22082350516831300558027174429.2102714811752398363215147
27281362755176624.92219354515980298856284168229.0108015912392369339514332
28293060989178724.62328352715149295754602161528.9113117013012322314913563
29302359202179024.32413346114345291552987154528.8117918013592261290212839
30310557413178224.02473335613570286351442147328.6122518914142189266112159
31317255630176523.82512322212826280149970139928.5126919714662108242911521
32321553865173223.62531306612115273348570132728.3131120515162022220910924
33323552133168623.32531289511438266147243125728.0135121115621933200410365
34323450447163123.12517271710796258645986118927.813872171604184218139841
35323548816157922.82488253610191251544797112727.514212221643175116389352
36324147236153122.6244923569619244743670106927.214522261679166214788893
37323145705147722.3240021799079237842601101326.914812301711157413328463
38320744228141922.123432008857023104158896126.515062331739149012018059
39317142810135721.822801845809222424062891126.215282361763141010827679
40315341452130721.522121691764321883971786925.71547238178413339767323
41315140145126521.221411546722121473884883425.31563239180212618816987
42313338881121820.820681411682221023801479924.81576241181711947966670
43310037663116820.519941285644620553721576524.41587242182811317206369
44305436495111520.119201170609320043645073123.91595242183710726526085
45303835380107519.718461064576219823572070823.41601243184310185925817
46305334305104719.31774967545019863501269522.8160524318489685385562
47305733258101718.91703877515419853431668122.3160824318519214905318
4830523224198418.51633796487419793363566621.7161024318538784475084
4930363125794918.11566722460919683296964921.1161124318558384084862
5030833030893517.61502655436020223232065320.5161224318568013724649
5131792937493417.21439593412121233166767220.0161324418577663404443
5232432844092216.71379537389321903099567919.4161424418577323114242
5332762751890116.31321485367422253031667418.8161424418587002834048
5432782661687215.81265438346622262964166018.2161424418586692583860
5533542574486415.31210396327122892898266317.6161424418586392353682
5635062488087214.81157357308324202831868517.0161424418586092143509
5736282400887114.41106321290225272763369816.4161424418585801943341
5837192313786013.91055288272826102693570315.9161424418585501753176
5937792227784213.41006258256326682623270015.3161424418585211573017
6039802143585312.9957230240528672553273214.7161424418584911412865
6142952058288412.4909205225331712480078614.1161424418584621252715
6245381969889412.0862181210333982401381613.5161424418584321112564
6347081880488511.5816160195935492319882313.016142441858403972416
6448061791986111.0770140182136242237481112.416142441858375852273
6550891705786810.6726123169138652156483411.916142441858347742137
6655411618989710.1682107156542702073088511.416142441858320642004
675901152929029.764092144245981984591210.816142441858294551871
686169143908889.359979132448491893291810.316142441858269471742
696346135028578.85596812125025180149059.816142441858246401617
706792126458598.45215811075482171099389.316142441858224331498
717514117878868.048449100662031617110038.816142441858203281381
728156109018897.64494190868301516810368.416142441858184231263
738719100128737.24173481373651413210418.016142441858166191148
74920591398416.93852872478081309110227.616142441858149151038
751003182988326.53562364285571206910337.21614244185813413933
761110274658296.23281856395451103610536.81614244185812010832
771196366367945.93031548810347998310336.5161424418581088734
781261958437375.6278124191096789509826.116142441858966642
791307551056685.325693571141079689095.816142441858865558
801380144386125.123573031212570598565.516142441858774482
811483438255674.821652551313262038155.216142441858683413
821573232585134.519842121399953897544.916142441858612350
831649727454534.318131741473046346834.716142441858542294
841713322923934.116621421532939526064.416142441858481244
851835419003493.815121151648433465524.116142441858421202
862003315513113.51381911808027945053.816142441858381164
872141012402663.31261711939022894443.516142441858330131
88225009752193.01151552042518453773.216142441858290103
89233147551762.81050412119714683112.91614244185826080
90248275791442.5960312266511572622.61614244185823062
91269454351172.188023247308952212.21614244185820047
9228686318911.780016264226741781.81614244185818034
9330073227681.273011277644961381.21614244185816025

Click to get the reproduction tables before the HIV epidemic

Nicolas Brouard Version 1.2, September 15, 1995