Tables de reproduction (mortalité, fécondité et population stable) avant l'épidémie de sida

Populations africaines et sida

Tables de reproduction (mortalité, fécondité et population stable) avant l'épidémie

Rappel: hypothèses avant l'épidémie
Espérance de vie=50 ans
Hommes 49.00 ans, Femmes 51.00 ans (modèle ouest)
Fécondité africaine: 6.70 enf/femme soit environ 12.06 enf./homme
Age moyen à la reproduction brute : femmes 27.5 ans, hommes 43.8 ans
Age moyen à la reproduction nette : femmes 27.0 ans, hommes 41.2 ans
ce qui conduit à :
un taux net de reproduction de 2.43 filles/fille ou 3.81 garçons par garçon
une croissance de 3.41 % par an dont 46.7 pour mille par an pour la natalité et 12.6 pour la mortalité
Hommes Femmes
Age Quotient Sur-
vivants
Décès Espérance
de vie
Pop.
stable
totale
Quotient Sur-
vivants
Décès Espérance
de vie
Fécon-
dité
Desc.
brute
enfants
par
femme
Desc-
endance
nette
filles/
fille
Pop.
stable
totale
Age Qx
X100000
lx
X100000
d(x,x+1)
X100000
ex b*lx*
exp(-rx)
p.million
Qx
X100000
lx
X100000
d(x,x+1)
X100000
ex fx
X1000
snrf
X1000
descnette
X1000
b*lx*
exp(-rx)
p.million
0128711000001287149.046747113661000001136651.000.000.0046747
1246687129214855.239363259388634229856.500.000.0040043
2192584981163655.537104203986336176156.900.000.0037696
3134283345111955.635169143284575121157.100.000.0035687
47168222758955.4335327708336464256.900.000.0033996
54008163832754.8321744308272235556.400.000.0032602
64098131133354.0309704378236736055.600.000.0031372
73988097932253.2298084268200734954.900.000.0030186
83688065629652.4286933988165832554.100.000.0029049
93178036025551.6276283528133328653.300.000.0027962
102738010521950.8266163118104725252.511.700.6726929
112607988620849.9256522978079524051.7715.406.0425944
122617967920849.0247272998055424150.82158.2022.7524998
132767947121948.2238343168031425350.043145.5556.7424087
143057925224247.3229713478006027849.169287.29111.7023205
153357901026546.4221323837978230648.397485.20188.1122348
163637874528645.6213174147947732947.5121732.93283.3221515
174007845931444.8205274477914835446.71391016.99391.9820707
184467814534943.9197594827879438045.91491321.69507.9319923
195027779739043.1190105197841440745.11521633.99626.1119161
205457740742242.3182805497800742844.31511944.45742.9318422
215687698543741.6175705707757944243.61482247.28856.2017706
225877654844940.8168845907713745542.81432540.07965.0517014
236027609845840.0162226117668146842.11382822.401069.3516346
246147564046539.3155836307621348041.31333094.501169.2315701
256227517546838.5149676447573348840.61283357.041264.9615078
266297470847037.8143756547524549239.81243611.031356.9614478
276377423847337.0138056657475349739.11203857.811445.7513901
286477376547736.2132576807425650538.41174098.571531.7613345
296587328848235.5127296977375151437.61154333.891615.2312809
306817280649634.7122217147323752336.91124563.681696.1412293
317127231051533.9117307317271453136.11094787.151774.2411795
327377179552933.2112557467218353935.41055002.891849.0611316
337567126653932.4107977617164454534.71015209.251920.0810855
347697072754431.7103567757109955133.9955404.731986.8110411
357997018356130.999317937054755933.2895587.992048.879983
368446962258830.195218126998856932.4835757.932105.949571
378826903460929.491248296942057531.7765913.622157.799175
389146842562528.687408436884458031.0696054.362204.258794
399396780063727.983708546826458330.2616179.672245.268427
409876716366327.280138756768159229.5536289.282280.818074
4110556650070226.476679046708960728.7466383.142310.977735
4211096579973025.773329266648261628.0386461.462335.897408
4311496506974825.070079406586661927.3316524.772355.857093
4411756432275624.366949486524761826.5246574.142371.266790
4512316356678323.663939796462963325.8186611.102382.686500
4613186278382822.8610310326399666125.0136637.702390.816221
4713936195686322.1582010786333568324.396656.412396.475950
4814556109388921.4554611146265369823.566669.632400.425688
4915056020490620.8528211436195570822.856679.252403.265436
5016175929795920.1502812346124775622.046686.582405.395193
51177558338103619.4478113706049182921.336692.292407.034957
52189957303108818.7453814715966287820.626696.512408.224725
53199056214111918.1430315385878490419.916699.122408.944499
54204755096112817.4407515695788090819.206700.002409.184281
55217853968117516.8385816625697294718.506700.002409.184073
56238352793125816.23647182456025102217.806700.002409.183871
57255651535131715.53441196055003107817.106700.002409.183672
58269750217135414.93240207353925111816.506700.002409.183480
59280648863137114.33047216052807114115.806700.002409.183293
60305747492145213.72862238951667123415.106700.002409.183114
61342146040157513.22682272350432137314.506700.002409.182937
62371144465165012.62503297949059146113.906700.002409.182762
63392742815168112.12329315947598150313.306700.002409.182589
64407041134167411.52163326246094150412.706700.002409.182423
65439839460173511.02005353144591157412.106700.002409.182266
66489537725184710.51852396343016170511.506700.002409.182112
67529735878190010.01703431741311178311.006700.002409.181960
6856053397819059.51558459339528181510.506700.002409.181813
6958213207318679.11422479137713180710.006700.002409.181672
7063063020619058.6129452703590618929.406700.002409.181538
7170652830120008.1117260133401420458.906700.002409.181408
7277422630220367.7105266593196921298.506700.002409.181279
7383382426620237.393872112984021528.006700.002409.181154
7488542224219697.083176702768821247.606700.002409.181035
7597102027319686.673284342556421567.206700.002409.18923
76108101830419796.263994362340822096.806700.002409.18817
77116961632619105.9551102502119921736.506700.002409.18715
78123761441617845.7470108821902720706.206700.002409.18620
79128521263216235.4398113341695619225.906700.002409.18534
80135981100914975.1335120581503418135.506700.002409.18458
8114650951213934.8280130721322217285.206700.002409.18389
8215565811812644.6231139471149316034.906700.002409.18327
8316345685511204.318814684989014524.706700.002409.18272
841699557349754.115215289843812904.406700.002409.18224
851823147608683.812216449714811764.106700.002409.18183
861992238927753.59718050597210783.806700.002409.18148
872131031176643.3751936348949483.506700.002409.18117
882241024525503.0572040239478053.206700.002409.1891
892323319034422.8432117731416652.906700.002409.1870
902475514613622.5322264724765612.606700.002409.1854
912688110992952.1232471519154732.206700.002409.1840
92286298042301.7162640914423811.806700.002409.1829
93300225741721.2112775210612941.206700.002409.1821

Cliquez pour obtenir le tableau de reproduction de la situation durant l'épidémie

Nicolas Brouard Version 1.2, 8 septembre 1995