Diff for /imach/src/imach.c between versions 1.46 and 1.188

version 1.46, 2002/05/30 17:44:35 version 1.188, 2015/04/30 08:27:53
Line 1 Line 1
 /* $Id$  /* $Id$
    Interpolated Markov Chain    $State$
     $Log$
   Short summary of the programme:    Revision 1.188  2015/04/30 08:27:53  brouard
      *** empty log message ***
   This program computes Healthy Life Expectancies from  
   cross-longitudinal data. Cross-longitudinal data consist in: -1- a    Revision 1.187  2015/04/29 09:11:15  brouard
   first survey ("cross") where individuals from different ages are    *** empty log message ***
   interviewed on their health status or degree of disability (in the  
   case of a health survey which is our main interest) -2- at least a    Revision 1.186  2015/04/23 12:01:52  brouard
   second wave of interviews ("longitudinal") which measure each change    Summary: V1*age is working now, version 0.98q1
   (if any) in individual health status.  Health expectancies are  
   computed from the time spent in each health state according to a    Some codes had been disabled in order to simplify and Vn*age was
   model. More health states you consider, more time is necessary to reach the    working in the optimization phase, ie, giving correct MLE parameters,
   Maximum Likelihood of the parameters involved in the model.  The    but, as usual, outputs were not correct and program core dumped.
   simplest model is the multinomial logistic model where pij is the  
   probability to be observed in state j at the second wave    Revision 1.185  2015/03/11 13:26:42  brouard
   conditional to be observed in state i at the first wave. Therefore    Summary: Inclusion of compile and links command line for Intel Compiler
   the model is: log(pij/pii)= aij + bij*age+ cij*sex + etc , where  
   'age' is age and 'sex' is a covariate. If you want to have a more    Revision 1.184  2015/03/11 11:52:39  brouard
   complex model than "constant and age", you should modify the program    Summary: Back from Windows 8. Intel Compiler
   where the markup *Covariates have to be included here again* invites  
   you to do it.  More covariates you add, slower the    Revision 1.183  2015/03/10 20:34:32  brouard
   convergence.    Summary: 0.98q0, trying with directest, mnbrak fixed
   
   The advantage of this computer programme, compared to a simple    We use directest instead of original Powell test; probably no
   multinomial logistic model, is clear when the delay between waves is not    incidence on the results, but better justifications;
   identical for each individual. Also, if a individual missed an    We fixed Numerical Recipes mnbrak routine which was wrong and gave
   intermediate interview, the information is lost, but taken into    wrong results.
   account using an interpolation or extrapolation.    
     Revision 1.182  2015/02/12 08:19:57  brouard
   hPijx is the probability to be observed in state i at age x+h    Summary: Trying to keep directest which seems simpler and more general
   conditional to the observed state i at age x. The delay 'h' can be    Author: Nicolas Brouard
   split into an exact number (nh*stepm) of unobserved intermediate  
   states. This elementary transition (by month or quarter trimester,    Revision 1.181  2015/02/11 23:22:24  brouard
   semester or year) is model as a multinomial logistic.  The hPx    Summary: Comments on Powell added
   matrix is simply the matrix product of nh*stepm elementary matrices  
   and the contribution of each individual to the likelihood is simply    Author:
   hPijx.  
     Revision 1.180  2015/02/11 17:33:45  brouard
   Also this programme outputs the covariance matrix of the parameters but also    Summary: Finishing move from main to function (hpijx and prevalence_limit)
   of the life expectancies. It also computes the prevalence limits.  
      Revision 1.179  2015/01/04 09:57:06  brouard
   Authors: Nicolas Brouard (brouard@ined.fr) and Agnès Lièvre (lievre@ined.fr).    Summary: back to OS/X
            Institut national d'études démographiques, Paris.  
   This software have been partly granted by Euro-REVES, a concerted action    Revision 1.178  2015/01/04 09:35:48  brouard
   from the European Union.    *** empty log message ***
   It is copyrighted identically to a GNU software product, ie programme and  
   software can be distributed freely for non commercial use. Latest version    Revision 1.177  2015/01/03 18:40:56  brouard
   can be accessed at http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach .    Summary: Still testing ilc32 on OSX
   **********************************************************************/  
      Revision 1.176  2015/01/03 16:45:04  brouard
 #include <math.h>    *** empty log message ***
 #include <stdio.h>  
 #include <stdlib.h>    Revision 1.175  2015/01/03 16:33:42  brouard
 #include <unistd.h>    *** empty log message ***
   
 #define MAXLINE 256    Revision 1.174  2015/01/03 16:15:49  brouard
 #define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "gnuplot"    Summary: Still in cross-compilation
 /*#define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "..\\gp37mgw\\wgnuplot"*/  
 #define FILENAMELENGTH 80    Revision 1.173  2015/01/03 12:06:26  brouard
 /*#define DEBUG*/    Summary: trying to detect cross-compilation
 #define windows  
 #define GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH              -1      /* empty path */    Revision 1.172  2014/12/27 12:07:47  brouard
 #define GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD              -2      /* cannot get cwd */    Summary: Back from Visual Studio and Intel, options for compiling for Windows XP
   
 #define MAXPARM 30 /* Maximum number of parameters for the optimization */    Revision 1.171  2014/12/23 13:26:59  brouard
 #define NPARMAX 64 /* (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel */    Summary: Back from Visual C
   
 #define NINTERVMAX 8    Still problem with utsname.h on Windows
 #define NLSTATEMAX 8 /* Maximum number of live states (for func) */  
 #define NDEATHMAX 8 /* Maximum number of dead states (for func) */    Revision 1.170  2014/12/23 11:17:12  brouard
 #define NCOVMAX 8 /* Maximum number of covariates */    Summary: Cleaning some \%% back to %%
 #define MAXN 20000  
 #define YEARM 12. /* Number of months per year */    The escape was mandatory for a specific compiler (which one?), but too many warnings.
 #define AGESUP 130  
 #define AGEBASE 40    Revision 1.169  2014/12/22 23:08:31  brouard
     Summary: 0.98p
   
 int erreur; /* Error number */    Outputs some informations on compiler used, OS etc. Testing on different platforms.
 int nvar;  
 int cptcovn, cptcovage=0, cptcoveff=0,cptcov;    Revision 1.168  2014/12/22 15:17:42  brouard
 int npar=NPARMAX;    Summary: update
 int nlstate=2; /* Number of live states */  
 int ndeath=1; /* Number of dead states */    Revision 1.167  2014/12/22 13:50:56  brouard
 int ncovmodel, ncovcol;     /* Total number of covariables including constant a12*1 +b12*x ncovmodel=2 */    Summary: Testing uname and compiler version and if compiled 32 or 64
 int popbased=0;  
     Testing on Linux 64
 int *wav; /* Number of waves for this individuual 0 is possible */  
 int maxwav; /* Maxim number of waves */    Revision 1.166  2014/12/22 11:40:47  brouard
 int jmin, jmax; /* min, max spacing between 2 waves */    *** empty log message ***
 int mle, weightopt;  
 int **mw; /* mw[mi][i] is number of the mi wave for this individual */    Revision 1.165  2014/12/16 11:20:36  brouard
 int **dh; /* dh[mi][i] is number of steps between mi,mi+1 for this individual */    Summary: After compiling on Visual C
 double jmean; /* Mean space between 2 waves */  
 double **oldm, **newm, **savm; /* Working pointers to matrices */    * imach.c (Module): Merging 1.61 to 1.162
 double **oldms, **newms, **savms; /* Fixed working pointers to matrices */  
 FILE *fic,*ficpar, *ficparo,*ficres,  *ficrespl, *ficrespij, *ficrest,*ficresf,*ficrespop;    Revision 1.164  2014/12/16 10:52:11  brouard
 FILE *ficgp,*ficresprob,*ficpop, *ficresprobcov, *ficresprobcor;    Summary: Merging with Visual C after suppressing some warnings for unused variables. Also fixing Saito's bug 0.98Xn
 FILE *ficreseij;  
   char filerese[FILENAMELENGTH];    * imach.c (Module): Merging 1.61 to 1.162
  FILE  *ficresvij;  
   char fileresv[FILENAMELENGTH];    Revision 1.163  2014/12/16 10:30:11  brouard
  FILE  *ficresvpl;    * imach.c (Module): Merging 1.61 to 1.162
   char fileresvpl[FILENAMELENGTH];  
     Revision 1.162  2014/09/25 11:43:39  brouard
 #define NR_END 1    Summary: temporary backup 0.99!
 #define FREE_ARG char*  
 #define FTOL 1.0e-10    Revision 1.1  2014/09/16 11:06:58  brouard
     Summary: With some code (wrong) for nlopt
 #define NRANSI  
 #define ITMAX 200    Author:
   
 #define TOL 2.0e-4    Revision 1.161  2014/09/15 20:41:41  brouard
     Summary: Problem with macro SQR on Intel compiler
 #define CGOLD 0.3819660  
 #define ZEPS 1.0e-10    Revision 1.160  2014/09/02 09:24:05  brouard
 #define SHFT(a,b,c,d) (a)=(b);(b)=(c);(c)=(d);    *** empty log message ***
   
 #define GOLD 1.618034    Revision 1.159  2014/09/01 10:34:10  brouard
 #define GLIMIT 100.0    Summary: WIN32
 #define TINY 1.0e-20    Author: Brouard
   
 static double maxarg1,maxarg2;    Revision 1.158  2014/08/27 17:11:51  brouard
 #define FMAX(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)>(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))    *** empty log message ***
 #define FMIN(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)<(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))  
      Revision 1.157  2014/08/27 16:26:55  brouard
 #define SIGN(a,b) ((b)>0.0 ? fabs(a) : -fabs(a))    Summary: Preparing windows Visual studio version
 #define rint(a) floor(a+0.5)    Author: Brouard
   
 static double sqrarg;    In order to compile on Visual studio, time.h is now correct and time_t
 #define SQR(a) ((sqrarg=(a)) == 0.0 ? 0.0 :sqrarg*sqrarg)    and tm struct should be used. difftime should be used but sometimes I
 #define SWAP(a,b) {temp=(a);(a)=(b);(b)=temp;}    just make the differences in raw time format (time(&now).
     Trying to suppress #ifdef LINUX
 int imx;    Add xdg-open for __linux in order to open default browser.
 int stepm;  
 /* Stepm, step in month: minimum step interpolation*/    Revision 1.156  2014/08/25 20:10:10  brouard
     *** empty log message ***
 int estepm;  
 /* Estepm, step in month to interpolate survival function in order to approximate Life Expectancy*/    Revision 1.155  2014/08/25 18:32:34  brouard
     Summary: New compile, minor changes
 int m,nb;    Author: Brouard
 int *num, firstpass=0, lastpass=4,*cod, *ncodemax, *Tage;  
 double **agev,*moisnais, *annais, *moisdc, *andc,**mint, **anint;    Revision 1.154  2014/06/20 17:32:08  brouard
 double **pmmij, ***probs, ***mobaverage;    Summary: Outputs now all graphs of convergence to period prevalence
 double dateintmean=0;  
     Revision 1.153  2014/06/20 16:45:46  brouard
 double *weight;    Summary: If 3 live state, convergence to period prevalence on same graph
 int **s; /* Status */    Author: Brouard
 double *agedc, **covar, idx;  
 int **nbcode, *Tcode, *Tvar, **codtab, **Tvard, *Tprod, cptcovprod, *Tvaraff;    Revision 1.152  2014/06/18 17:54:09  brouard
     Summary: open browser, use gnuplot on same dir than imach if not found in the path
 double ftol=FTOL; /* Tolerance for computing Max Likelihood */  
 double ftolhess; /* Tolerance for computing hessian */    Revision 1.151  2014/06/18 16:43:30  brouard
     *** empty log message ***
 /**************** split *************************/  
 static  int split( char *path, char *dirc, char *name, char *ext, char *finame )    Revision 1.150  2014/06/18 16:42:35  brouard
 {    Summary: If gnuplot is not in the path try on same directory than imach binary (OSX)
    char *s;                             /* pointer */    Author: brouard
    int  l1, l2;                         /* length counters */  
     Revision 1.149  2014/06/18 15:51:14  brouard
    l1 = strlen( path );                 /* length of path */    Summary: Some fixes in parameter files errors
    if ( l1 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );    Author: Nicolas Brouard
 #ifdef windows  
    s = strrchr( path, '\\' );           /* find last / */    Revision 1.148  2014/06/17 17:38:48  brouard
 #else    Summary: Nothing new
    s = strrchr( path, '/' );            /* find last / */    Author: Brouard
 #endif  
    if ( s == NULL ) {                   /* no directory, so use current */    Just a new packaging for OS/X version 0.98nS
 #if     defined(__bsd__)                /* get current working directory */  
       extern char       *getwd( );    Revision 1.147  2014/06/16 10:33:11  brouard
     *** empty log message ***
       if ( getwd( dirc ) == NULL ) {  
 #else    Revision 1.146  2014/06/16 10:20:28  brouard
       extern char       *getcwd( );    Summary: Merge
     Author: Brouard
       if ( getcwd( dirc, FILENAME_MAX ) == NULL ) {  
 #endif    Merge, before building revised version.
          return( GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD );  
       }    Revision 1.145  2014/06/10 21:23:15  brouard
       strcpy( name, path );             /* we've got it */    Summary: Debugging with valgrind
    } else {                             /* strip direcotry from path */    Author: Nicolas Brouard
       s++;                              /* after this, the filename */  
       l2 = strlen( s );                 /* length of filename */    Lot of changes in order to output the results with some covariates
       if ( l2 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );    After the Edimburgh REVES conference 2014, it seems mandatory to
       strcpy( name, s );                /* save file name */    improve the code.
       strncpy( dirc, path, l1 - l2 );   /* now the directory */    No more memory valgrind error but a lot has to be done in order to
       dirc[l1-l2] = 0;                  /* add zero */    continue the work of splitting the code into subroutines.
    }    Also, decodemodel has been improved. Tricode is still not
    l1 = strlen( dirc );                 /* length of directory */    optimal. nbcode should be improved. Documentation has been added in
 #ifdef windows    the source code.
    if ( dirc[l1-1] != '\\' ) { dirc[l1] = '\\'; dirc[l1+1] = 0; }  
 #else    Revision 1.143  2014/01/26 09:45:38  brouard
    if ( dirc[l1-1] != '/' ) { dirc[l1] = '/'; dirc[l1+1] = 0; }    Summary: Version 0.98nR (to be improved, but gives same optimization results as 0.98k. Nice, promising
 #endif  
    s = strrchr( name, '.' );            /* find last / */    * imach.c (Module): Trying to merge old staffs together while being at Tokyo. Not tested...
    s++;    (Module): Version 0.98nR Running ok, but output format still only works for three covariates.
    strcpy(ext,s);                       /* save extension */  
    l1= strlen( name);    Revision 1.142  2014/01/26 03:57:36  brouard
    l2= strlen( s)+1;    Summary: gnuplot changed plot w l 1 has to be changed to plot w l lt 2
    strncpy( finame, name, l1-l2);  
    finame[l1-l2]= 0;    * imach.c (Module): Trying to merge old staffs together while being at Tokyo. Not tested...
    return( 0 );                         /* we're done */  
 }    Revision 1.141  2014/01/26 02:42:01  brouard
     * imach.c (Module): Trying to merge old staffs together while being at Tokyo. Not tested...
   
 /******************************************/    Revision 1.140  2011/09/02 10:37:54  brouard
     Summary: times.h is ok with mingw32 now.
 void replace(char *s, char*t)  
 {    Revision 1.139  2010/06/14 07:50:17  brouard
   int i;    After the theft of my laptop, I probably lost some lines of codes which were not uploaded to the CVS tree.
   int lg=20;    I remember having already fixed agemin agemax which are pointers now but not cvs saved.
   i=0;  
   lg=strlen(t);    Revision 1.138  2010/04/30 18:19:40  brouard
   for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {    *** empty log message ***
     (s[i] = t[i]);  
     if (t[i]== '\\') s[i]='/';    Revision 1.137  2010/04/29 18:11:38  brouard
   }    (Module): Checking covariates for more complex models
 }    than V1+V2. A lot of change to be done. Unstable.
   
 int nbocc(char *s, char occ)    Revision 1.136  2010/04/26 20:30:53  brouard
 {    (Module): merging some libgsl code. Fixing computation
   int i,j=0;    of likelione (using inter/intrapolation if mle = 0) in order to
   int lg=20;    get same likelihood as if mle=1.
   i=0;    Some cleaning of code and comments added.
   lg=strlen(s);  
   for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {    Revision 1.135  2009/10/29 15:33:14  brouard
   if  (s[i] == occ ) j++;    (Module): Now imach stops if date of birth, at least year of birth, is not given. Some cleaning of the code.
   }  
   return j;    Revision 1.134  2009/10/29 13:18:53  brouard
 }    (Module): Now imach stops if date of birth, at least year of birth, is not given. Some cleaning of the code.
   
 void cutv(char *u,char *v, char*t, char occ)    Revision 1.133  2009/07/06 10:21:25  brouard
 {    just nforces
   int i,lg,j,p=0;  
   i=0;    Revision 1.132  2009/07/06 08:22:05  brouard
   for(j=0; j<=strlen(t)-1; j++) {    Many tings
     if((t[j]!= occ) && (t[j+1]== occ)) p=j+1;  
   }    Revision 1.131  2009/06/20 16:22:47  brouard
     Some dimensions resccaled
   lg=strlen(t);  
   for(j=0; j<p; j++) {    Revision 1.130  2009/05/26 06:44:34  brouard
     (u[j] = t[j]);    (Module): Max Covariate is now set to 20 instead of 8. A
   }    lot of cleaning with variables initialized to 0. Trying to make
      u[p]='\0';    V2+V3*age+V1+V4 strb=V3*age+V1+V4 working better.
   
    for(j=0; j<= lg; j++) {    Revision 1.129  2007/08/31 13:49:27  lievre
     if (j>=(p+1))(v[j-p-1] = t[j]);    Modification of the way of exiting when the covariate is not binary in order to see on the window the error message before exiting
   }  
 }    Revision 1.128  2006/06/30 13:02:05  brouard
     (Module): Clarifications on computing e.j
 /********************** nrerror ********************/  
     Revision 1.127  2006/04/28 18:11:50  brouard
 void nrerror(char error_text[])    (Module): Yes the sum of survivors was wrong since
 {    imach-114 because nhstepm was no more computed in the age
   fprintf(stderr,"ERREUR ...\n");    loop. Now we define nhstepma in the age loop.
   fprintf(stderr,"%s\n",error_text);    (Module): In order to speed up (in case of numerous covariates) we
   exit(1);    compute health expectancies (without variances) in a first step
 }    and then all the health expectancies with variances or standard
 /*********************** vector *******************/    deviation (needs data from the Hessian matrices) which slows the
 double *vector(int nl, int nh)    computation.
 {    In the future we should be able to stop the program is only health
   double *v;    expectancies and graph are needed without standard deviations.
   v=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));  
   if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in vector");    Revision 1.126  2006/04/28 17:23:28  brouard
   return v-nl+NR_END;    (Module): Yes the sum of survivors was wrong since
 }    imach-114 because nhstepm was no more computed in the age
     loop. Now we define nhstepma in the age loop.
 /************************ free vector ******************/    Version 0.98h
 void free_vector(double*v, int nl, int nh)  
 {    Revision 1.125  2006/04/04 15:20:31  lievre
   free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));    Errors in calculation of health expectancies. Age was not initialized.
 }    Forecasting file added.
   
 /************************ivector *******************************/    Revision 1.124  2006/03/22 17:13:53  lievre
 int *ivector(long nl,long nh)    Parameters are printed with %lf instead of %f (more numbers after the comma).
 {    The log-likelihood is printed in the log file
   int *v;  
   v=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));    Revision 1.123  2006/03/20 10:52:43  brouard
   if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");    * imach.c (Module): <title> changed, corresponds to .htm file
   return v-nl+NR_END;    name. <head> headers where missing.
 }  
     * imach.c (Module): Weights can have a decimal point as for
 /******************free ivector **************************/    English (a comma might work with a correct LC_NUMERIC environment,
 void free_ivector(int *v, long nl, long nh)    otherwise the weight is truncated).
 {    Modification of warning when the covariates values are not 0 or
   free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));    1.
 }    Version 0.98g
   
 /******************* imatrix *******************************/    Revision 1.122  2006/03/20 09:45:41  brouard
 int **imatrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)    (Module): Weights can have a decimal point as for
      /* allocate a int matrix with subscript range m[nrl..nrh][ncl..nch] */    English (a comma might work with a correct LC_NUMERIC environment,
 {    otherwise the weight is truncated).
   long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1,ncol=nch-ncl+1;    Modification of warning when the covariates values are not 0 or
   int **m;    1.
      Version 0.98g
   /* allocate pointers to rows */  
   m=(int **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(int*)));    Revision 1.121  2006/03/16 17:45:01  lievre
   if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");    * imach.c (Module): Comments concerning covariates added
   m += NR_END;  
   m -= nrl;    * imach.c (Module): refinements in the computation of lli if
      status=-2 in order to have more reliable computation if stepm is
      not 1 month. Version 0.98f
   /* allocate rows and set pointers to them */  
   m[nrl]=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));    Revision 1.120  2006/03/16 15:10:38  lievre
   if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");    (Module): refinements in the computation of lli if
   m[nrl] += NR_END;    status=-2 in order to have more reliable computation if stepm is
   m[nrl] -= ncl;    not 1 month. Version 0.98f
    
   for(i=nrl+1;i<=nrh;i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;    Revision 1.119  2006/03/15 17:42:26  brouard
      (Module): Bug if status = -2, the loglikelihood was
   /* return pointer to array of pointers to rows */    computed as likelihood omitting the logarithm. Version O.98e
   return m;  
 }    Revision 1.118  2006/03/14 18:20:07  brouard
     (Module): varevsij Comments added explaining the second
 /****************** free_imatrix *************************/    table of variances if popbased=1 .
 void free_imatrix(m,nrl,nrh,ncl,nch)    (Module): Covariances of eij, ekl added, graphs fixed, new html link.
       int **m;    (Module): Function pstamp added
       long nch,ncl,nrh,nrl;    (Module): Version 0.98d
      /* free an int matrix allocated by imatrix() */  
 {    Revision 1.117  2006/03/14 17:16:22  brouard
   free((FREE_ARG) (m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));    (Module): varevsij Comments added explaining the second
   free((FREE_ARG) (m+nrl-NR_END));    table of variances if popbased=1 .
 }    (Module): Covariances of eij, ekl added, graphs fixed, new html link.
     (Module): Function pstamp added
 /******************* matrix *******************************/    (Module): Version 0.98d
 double **matrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)  
 {    Revision 1.116  2006/03/06 10:29:27  brouard
   long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1;    (Module): Variance-covariance wrong links and
   double **m;    varian-covariance of ej. is needed (Saito).
   
   m=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));    Revision 1.115  2006/02/27 12:17:45  brouard
   if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");    (Module): One freematrix added in mlikeli! 0.98c
   m += NR_END;  
   m -= nrl;    Revision 1.114  2006/02/26 12:57:58  brouard
     (Module): Some improvements in processing parameter
   m[nrl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));    filename with strsep.
   if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");  
   m[nrl] += NR_END;    Revision 1.113  2006/02/24 14:20:24  brouard
   m[nrl] -= ncl;    (Module): Memory leaks checks with valgrind and:
     datafile was not closed, some imatrix were not freed and on matrix
   for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;    allocation too.
   return m;  
 }    Revision 1.112  2006/01/30 09:55:26  brouard
     (Module): Back to gnuplot.exe instead of wgnuplot.exe
 /*************************free matrix ************************/  
 void free_matrix(double **m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)    Revision 1.111  2006/01/25 20:38:18  brouard
 {    (Module): Lots of cleaning and bugs added (Gompertz)
   free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));    (Module): Comments can be added in data file. Missing date values
   free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));    can be a simple dot '.'.
 }  
     Revision 1.110  2006/01/25 00:51:50  brouard
 /******************* ma3x *******************************/    (Module): Lots of cleaning and bugs added (Gompertz)
 double ***ma3x(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long nll, long nlh)  
 {    Revision 1.109  2006/01/24 19:37:15  brouard
   long i, j, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1, nlay=nlh-nll+1;    (Module): Comments (lines starting with a #) are allowed in data.
   double ***m;  
     Revision 1.108  2006/01/19 18:05:42  lievre
   m=(double ***) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));    Gnuplot problem appeared...
   if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");    To be fixed
   m += NR_END;  
   m -= nrl;    Revision 1.107  2006/01/19 16:20:37  brouard
     Test existence of gnuplot in imach path
   m[nrl]=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));  
   if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");    Revision 1.106  2006/01/19 13:24:36  brouard
   m[nrl] += NR_END;    Some cleaning and links added in html output
   m[nrl] -= ncl;  
     Revision 1.105  2006/01/05 20:23:19  lievre
   for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;    *** empty log message ***
   
   m[nrl][ncl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol*nlay+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));    Revision 1.104  2005/09/30 16:11:43  lievre
   if (!m[nrl][ncl]) nrerror("allocation failure 3 in matrix()");    (Module): sump fixed, loop imx fixed, and simplifications.
   m[nrl][ncl] += NR_END;    (Module): If the status is missing at the last wave but we know
   m[nrl][ncl] -= nll;    that the person is alive, then we can code his/her status as -2
   for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++)    (instead of missing=-1 in earlier versions) and his/her
     m[nrl][j]=m[nrl][j-1]+nlay;    contributions to the likelihood is 1 - Prob of dying from last
      health status (= 1-p13= p11+p12 in the easiest case of somebody in
   for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) {    the healthy state at last known wave). Version is 0.98
     m[i][ncl]=m[i-1l][ncl]+ncol*nlay;  
     for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++)    Revision 1.103  2005/09/30 15:54:49  lievre
       m[i][j]=m[i][j-1]+nlay;    (Module): sump fixed, loop imx fixed, and simplifications.
   }  
   return m;    Revision 1.102  2004/09/15 17:31:30  brouard
 }    Add the possibility to read data file including tab characters.
   
 /*************************free ma3x ************************/    Revision 1.101  2004/09/15 10:38:38  brouard
 void free_ma3x(double ***m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch,long nll, long nlh)    Fix on curr_time
 {  
   free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl][ncl]+ nll-NR_END));    Revision 1.100  2004/07/12 18:29:06  brouard
   free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));    Add version for Mac OS X. Just define UNIX in Makefile
   free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));  
 }    Revision 1.99  2004/06/05 08:57:40  brouard
     *** empty log message ***
 /***************** f1dim *************************/  
 extern int ncom;    Revision 1.98  2004/05/16 15:05:56  brouard
 extern double *pcom,*xicom;    New version 0.97 . First attempt to estimate force of mortality
 extern double (*nrfunc)(double []);    directly from the data i.e. without the need of knowing the health
      state at each age, but using a Gompertz model: log u =a + b*age .
 double f1dim(double x)    This is the basic analysis of mortality and should be done before any
 {    other analysis, in order to test if the mortality estimated from the
   int j;    cross-longitudinal survey is different from the mortality estimated
   double f;    from other sources like vital statistic data.
   double *xt;  
      The same imach parameter file can be used but the option for mle should be -3.
   xt=vector(1,ncom);  
   for (j=1;j<=ncom;j++) xt[j]=pcom[j]+x*xicom[j];    Agnès, who wrote this part of the code, tried to keep most of the
   f=(*nrfunc)(xt);    former routines in order to include the new code within the former code.
   free_vector(xt,1,ncom);  
   return f;    The output is very simple: only an estimate of the intercept and of
 }    the slope with 95% confident intervals.
   
 /*****************brent *************************/    Current limitations:
 double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx, double (*f)(double), double tol,  double *xmin)    A) Even if you enter covariates, i.e. with the
 {    model= V1+V2 equation for example, the programm does only estimate a unique global model without covariates.
   int iter;    B) There is no computation of Life Expectancy nor Life Table.
   double a,b,d,etemp;  
   double fu,fv,fw,fx;    Revision 1.97  2004/02/20 13:25:42  lievre
   double ftemp;    Version 0.96d. Population forecasting command line is (temporarily)
   double p,q,r,tol1,tol2,u,v,w,x,xm;    suppressed.
   double e=0.0;  
      Revision 1.96  2003/07/15 15:38:55  brouard
   a=(ax < cx ? ax : cx);    * imach.c (Repository): Errors in subdirf, 2, 3 while printing tmpout is
   b=(ax > cx ? ax : cx);    rewritten within the same printf. Workaround: many printfs.
   x=w=v=bx;  
   fw=fv=fx=(*f)(x);    Revision 1.95  2003/07/08 07:54:34  brouard
   for (iter=1;iter<=ITMAX;iter++) {    * imach.c (Repository):
     xm=0.5*(a+b);    (Repository): Using imachwizard code to output a more meaningful covariance
     tol2=2.0*(tol1=tol*fabs(x)+ZEPS);    matrix (cov(a12,c31) instead of numbers.
     /*          if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret)))*/  
     printf(".");fflush(stdout);    Revision 1.94  2003/06/27 13:00:02  brouard
 #ifdef DEBUG    Just cleaning
     printf("br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);  
     /*          if ((fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a)))||(2.0*fabs(fu-ftemp) <= ftol*1.e-2*(fabs(fu)+fabs(ftemp)))) { */    Revision 1.93  2003/06/25 16:33:55  brouard
 #endif    (Module): On windows (cygwin) function asctime_r doesn't
     if (fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a))){    exist so I changed back to asctime which exists.
       *xmin=x;    (Module): Version 0.96b
       return fx;  
     }    Revision 1.92  2003/06/25 16:30:45  brouard
     ftemp=fu;    (Module): On windows (cygwin) function asctime_r doesn't
     if (fabs(e) > tol1) {    exist so I changed back to asctime which exists.
       r=(x-w)*(fx-fv);  
       q=(x-v)*(fx-fw);    Revision 1.91  2003/06/25 15:30:29  brouard
       p=(x-v)*q-(x-w)*r;    * imach.c (Repository): Duplicated warning errors corrected.
       q=2.0*(q-r);    (Repository): Elapsed time after each iteration is now output. It
       if (q > 0.0) p = -p;    helps to forecast when convergence will be reached. Elapsed time
       q=fabs(q);    is stamped in powell.  We created a new html file for the graphs
       etemp=e;    concerning matrix of covariance. It has extension -cov.htm.
       e=d;  
       if (fabs(p) >= fabs(0.5*q*etemp) || p <= q*(a-x) || p >= q*(b-x))    Revision 1.90  2003/06/24 12:34:15  brouard
         d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x));    (Module): Some bugs corrected for windows. Also, when
       else {    mle=-1 a template is output in file "or"mypar.txt with the design
         d=p/q;    of the covariance matrix to be input.
         u=x+d;  
         if (u-a < tol2 || b-u < tol2)    Revision 1.89  2003/06/24 12:30:52  brouard
           d=SIGN(tol1,xm-x);    (Module): Some bugs corrected for windows. Also, when
       }    mle=-1 a template is output in file "or"mypar.txt with the design
     } else {    of the covariance matrix to be input.
       d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x));  
     }    Revision 1.88  2003/06/23 17:54:56  brouard
     u=(fabs(d) >= tol1 ? x+d : x+SIGN(tol1,d));    * imach.c (Repository): Create a sub-directory where all the secondary files are. Only imach, htm, gp and r(imach) are on the main directory. Correct time and other things.
     fu=(*f)(u);  
     if (fu <= fx) {    Revision 1.87  2003/06/18 12:26:01  brouard
       if (u >= x) a=x; else b=x;    Version 0.96
       SHFT(v,w,x,u)  
         SHFT(fv,fw,fx,fu)    Revision 1.86  2003/06/17 20:04:08  brouard
         } else {    (Module): Change position of html and gnuplot routines and added
           if (u < x) a=u; else b=u;    routine fileappend.
           if (fu <= fw || w == x) {  
             v=w;    Revision 1.85  2003/06/17 13:12:43  brouard
             w=u;    * imach.c (Repository): Check when date of death was earlier that
             fv=fw;    current date of interview. It may happen when the death was just
             fw=fu;    prior to the death. In this case, dh was negative and likelihood
           } else if (fu <= fv || v == x || v == w) {    was wrong (infinity). We still send an "Error" but patch by
             v=u;    assuming that the date of death was just one stepm after the
             fv=fu;    interview.
           }    (Repository): Because some people have very long ID (first column)
         }    we changed int to long in num[] and we added a new lvector for
   }    memory allocation. But we also truncated to 8 characters (left
   nrerror("Too many iterations in brent");    truncation)
   *xmin=x;    (Repository): No more line truncation errors.
   return fx;  
 }    Revision 1.84  2003/06/13 21:44:43  brouard
     * imach.c (Repository): Replace "freqsummary" at a correct
 /****************** mnbrak ***********************/    place. It differs from routine "prevalence" which may be called
     many times. Probs is memory consuming and must be used with
 void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb, double *fc,    parcimony.
             double (*func)(double))    Version 0.95a3 (should output exactly the same maximization than 0.8a2)
 {  
   double ulim,u,r,q, dum;    Revision 1.83  2003/06/10 13:39:11  lievre
   double fu;    *** empty log message ***
    
   *fa=(*func)(*ax);    Revision 1.82  2003/06/05 15:57:20  brouard
   *fb=(*func)(*bx);    Add log in  imach.c and  fullversion number is now printed.
   if (*fb > *fa) {  
     SHFT(dum,*ax,*bx,dum)  */
       SHFT(dum,*fb,*fa,dum)  /*
       }     Interpolated Markov Chain
   *cx=(*bx)+GOLD*(*bx-*ax);  
   *fc=(*func)(*cx);    Short summary of the programme:
   while (*fb > *fc) {    
     r=(*bx-*ax)*(*fb-*fc);    This program computes Healthy Life Expectancies from
     q=(*bx-*cx)*(*fb-*fa);    cross-longitudinal data. Cross-longitudinal data consist in: -1- a
     u=(*bx)-((*bx-*cx)*q-(*bx-*ax)*r)/    first survey ("cross") where individuals from different ages are
       (2.0*SIGN(FMAX(fabs(q-r),TINY),q-r));    interviewed on their health status or degree of disability (in the
     ulim=(*bx)+GLIMIT*(*cx-*bx);    case of a health survey which is our main interest) -2- at least a
     if ((*bx-u)*(u-*cx) > 0.0) {    second wave of interviews ("longitudinal") which measure each change
       fu=(*func)(u);    (if any) in individual health status.  Health expectancies are
     } else if ((*cx-u)*(u-ulim) > 0.0) {    computed from the time spent in each health state according to a
       fu=(*func)(u);    model. More health states you consider, more time is necessary to reach the
       if (fu < *fc) {    Maximum Likelihood of the parameters involved in the model.  The
         SHFT(*bx,*cx,u,*cx+GOLD*(*cx-*bx))    simplest model is the multinomial logistic model where pij is the
           SHFT(*fb,*fc,fu,(*func)(u))    probability to be observed in state j at the second wave
           }    conditional to be observed in state i at the first wave. Therefore
     } else if ((u-ulim)*(ulim-*cx) >= 0.0) {    the model is: log(pij/pii)= aij + bij*age+ cij*sex + etc , where
       u=ulim;    'age' is age and 'sex' is a covariate. If you want to have a more
       fu=(*func)(u);    complex model than "constant and age", you should modify the program
     } else {    where the markup *Covariates have to be included here again* invites
       u=(*cx)+GOLD*(*cx-*bx);    you to do it.  More covariates you add, slower the
       fu=(*func)(u);    convergence.
     }  
     SHFT(*ax,*bx,*cx,u)    The advantage of this computer programme, compared to a simple
       SHFT(*fa,*fb,*fc,fu)    multinomial logistic model, is clear when the delay between waves is not
       }    identical for each individual. Also, if a individual missed an
 }    intermediate interview, the information is lost, but taken into
     account using an interpolation or extrapolation.  
 /*************** linmin ************************/  
     hPijx is the probability to be observed in state i at age x+h
 int ncom;    conditional to the observed state i at age x. The delay 'h' can be
 double *pcom,*xicom;    split into an exact number (nh*stepm) of unobserved intermediate
 double (*nrfunc)(double []);    states. This elementary transition (by month, quarter,
      semester or year) is modelled as a multinomial logistic.  The hPx
 void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,double (*func)(double []))    matrix is simply the matrix product of nh*stepm elementary matrices
 {    and the contribution of each individual to the likelihood is simply
   double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx,    hPijx.
                double (*f)(double), double tol, double *xmin);  
   double f1dim(double x);    Also this programme outputs the covariance matrix of the parameters but also
   void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb,    of the life expectancies. It also computes the period (stable) prevalence. 
               double *fc, double (*func)(double));    
   int j;    Authors: Nicolas Brouard (brouard@ined.fr) and Agnès Lièvre (lievre@ined.fr).
   double xx,xmin,bx,ax;             Institut national d'études démographiques, Paris.
   double fx,fb,fa;    This software have been partly granted by Euro-REVES, a concerted action
      from the European Union.
   ncom=n;    It is copyrighted identically to a GNU software product, ie programme and
   pcom=vector(1,n);    software can be distributed freely for non commercial use. Latest version
   xicom=vector(1,n);    can be accessed at http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach .
   nrfunc=func;  
   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {    Help to debug: LD_PRELOAD=/usr/local/lib/libnjamd.so ./imach foo.imach
     pcom[j]=p[j];    or better on gdb : set env LD_PRELOAD=/usr/local/lib/libnjamd.so
     xicom[j]=xi[j];    
   }    **********************************************************************/
   ax=0.0;  /*
   xx=1.0;    main
   mnbrak(&ax,&xx,&bx,&fa,&fx,&fb,f1dim);    read parameterfile
   *fret=brent(ax,xx,bx,f1dim,TOL,&xmin);    read datafile
 #ifdef DEBUG    concatwav
   printf("retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);    freqsummary
 #endif    if (mle >= 1)
   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {      mlikeli
     xi[j] *= xmin;    print results files
     p[j] += xi[j];    if mle==1 
   }       computes hessian
   free_vector(xicom,1,n);    read end of parameter file: agemin, agemax, bage, fage, estepm
   free_vector(pcom,1,n);        begin-prev-date,...
 }    open gnuplot file
     open html file
 /*************** powell ************************/    period (stable) prevalence      | pl_nom    1-1 2-2 etc by covariate
 void powell(double p[], double **xi, int n, double ftol, int *iter, double *fret,     for age prevalim()             | #****** V1=0  V2=1  V3=1  V4=0 ******
             double (*func)(double []))                                    | 65 1 0 2 1 3 1 4 0  0.96326 0.03674
 {      freexexit2 possible for memory heap.
   void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,  
               double (*func)(double []));    h Pij x                         | pij_nom  ficrestpij
   int i,ibig,j;     # Cov Agex agex+h hpijx with i,j= 1-1 1-2     1-3     2-1     2-2     2-3
   double del,t,*pt,*ptt,*xit;         1  85   85    1.00000             0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 0.00000
   double fp,fptt;         1  85   86    0.68299             0.22291 0.09410 0.71093 0.00000 0.28907
   double *xits;  
   pt=vector(1,n);         1  65   99    0.00364             0.00322 0.99314 0.00350 0.00310 0.99340
   ptt=vector(1,n);         1  65  100    0.00214             0.00204 0.99581 0.00206 0.00196 0.99597
   xit=vector(1,n);    variance of p one-step probabilities varprob  | prob_nom   ficresprob #One-step probabilities and stand. devi in ()
   xits=vector(1,n);     Standard deviation of one-step probabilities | probcor_nom   ficresprobcor #One-step probabilities and correlation matrix
   *fret=(*func)(p);     Matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities |  probcov_nom ficresprobcov #One-step probabilities and covariance matrix
   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) pt[j]=p[j];  
   for (*iter=1;;++(*iter)) {    forecasting if prevfcast==1 prevforecast call prevalence()
     fp=(*fret);    health expectancies
     ibig=0;    Variance-covariance of DFLE
     del=0.0;    prevalence()
     printf("\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f",*iter,*fret);     movingaverage()
     for (i=1;i<=n;i++)    varevsij() 
       printf(" %d %.12f",i, p[i]);    if popbased==1 varevsij(,popbased)
     printf("\n");    total life expectancies
     for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {    Variance of period (stable) prevalence
       for (j=1;j<=n;j++) xit[j]=xi[j][i];   end
       fptt=(*fret);  */
 #ifdef DEBUG  
       printf("fret=%lf \n",*fret);  /* #define DEBUG */
 #endif  /* #define DEBUGBRENT */
       printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);  #define POWELL /* Instead of NLOPT */
       linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func);  /* #define POWELLORIGINAL /\* Don't use Directest to decide new direction but original Powell test *\/ */
       if (fabs(fptt-(*fret)) > del) {  /* #define MNBRAKORIGINAL /\* Don't use mnbrak fix *\/ */
         del=fabs(fptt-(*fret));  
         ibig=i;  #include <math.h>
       }  #include <stdio.h>
 #ifdef DEBUG  #include <stdlib.h>
       printf("%d %.12e",i,(*fret));  #include <string.h>
       for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {  
         xits[j]=FMAX(fabs(p[j]-pt[j]),1.e-5);  #ifdef _WIN32
         printf(" x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);  #include <io.h>
       }  #include <windows.h>
       for(j=1;j<=n;j++)  #include <tchar.h>
         printf(" p=%.12e",p[j]);  #else
       printf("\n");  #include <unistd.h>
 #endif  #endif
     }  
     if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret))) {  #include <limits.h>
 #ifdef DEBUG  #include <sys/types.h>
       int k[2],l;  
       k[0]=1;  #if defined(__GNUC__)
       k[1]=-1;  #include <sys/utsname.h> /* Doesn't work on Windows */
       printf("Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));  #endif
       for (j=1;j<=n;j++)  
         printf(" %.12e",p[j]);  #include <sys/stat.h>
       printf("\n");  #include <errno.h>
       for(l=0;l<=1;l++) {  /* extern int errno; */
         for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {  
           ptt[j]=p[j]+(p[j]-pt[j])*k[l];  /* #ifdef LINUX */
           printf("l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);  /* #include <time.h> */
         }  /* #include "timeval.h" */
         printf("func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));  /* #else */
       }  /* #include <sys/time.h> */
 #endif  /* #endif */
   
   #include <time.h>
       free_vector(xit,1,n);  
       free_vector(xits,1,n);  #ifdef GSL
       free_vector(ptt,1,n);  #include <gsl/gsl_errno.h>
       free_vector(pt,1,n);  #include <gsl/gsl_multimin.h>
       return;  #endif
     }  
     if (*iter == ITMAX) nrerror("powell exceeding maximum iterations.");  
     for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {  #ifdef NLOPT
       ptt[j]=2.0*p[j]-pt[j];  #include <nlopt.h>
       xit[j]=p[j]-pt[j];  typedef struct {
       pt[j]=p[j];    double (* function)(double [] );
     }  } myfunc_data ;
     fptt=(*func)(ptt);  #endif
     if (fptt < fp) {  
       t=2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del)-del*SQR(fp-fptt);  /* #include <libintl.h> */
       if (t < 0.0) {  /* #define _(String) gettext (String) */
         linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func);  
         for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {  #define MAXLINE 1024 /* Was 256. Overflow with 312 with 2 states and 4 covariates. Should be ok */
           xi[j][ibig]=xi[j][n];  
           xi[j][n]=xit[j];  #define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "gnuplot"
         }  /*#define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "..\\gp37mgw\\wgnuplot"*/
 #ifdef DEBUG  #define FILENAMELENGTH 132
         printf("Direction changed  last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);  
         for(j=1;j<=n;j++)  #define GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH              -1      /* empty path */
           printf(" %.12e",xit[j]);  #define GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD              -2      /* cannot get cwd */
         printf("\n");  
 #endif  #define MAXPARM 128 /**< Maximum number of parameters for the optimization */
       }  #define NPARMAX 64 /**< (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel */
     }  
   }  #define NINTERVMAX 8
 }  #define NLSTATEMAX 8 /**< Maximum number of live states (for func) */
   #define NDEATHMAX 8 /**< Maximum number of dead states (for func) */
 /**** Prevalence limit ****************/  #define NCOVMAX 20 /**< Maximum number of covariates, including generated covariates V1*V2 */
   #define codtabm(h,k)  1 & (h-1) >> (k-1) ;
 double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double x[], double age, double **oldm, double **savm, double ftolpl, int ij)  #define MAXN 20000
 {  #define YEARM 12. /**< Number of months per year */
   /* Computes the prevalence limit in each live state at age x by left multiplying the unit  #define AGESUP 130
      matrix by transitions matrix until convergence is reached */  #define AGEBASE 40
   #define AGEGOMP 10 /**< Minimal age for Gompertz adjustment */
   int i, ii,j,k;  #ifdef _WIN32
   double min, max, maxmin, maxmax,sumnew=0.;  #define DIRSEPARATOR '\\'
   double **matprod2();  #define CHARSEPARATOR "\\"
   double **out, cov[NCOVMAX], **pmij();  #define ODIRSEPARATOR '/'
   double **newm;  #else
   double agefin, delaymax=50 ; /* Max number of years to converge */  #define DIRSEPARATOR '/'
   #define CHARSEPARATOR "/"
   for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)  #define ODIRSEPARATOR '\\'
     for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){  #endif
       oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);  
     }  /* $Id$ */
   /* $State$ */
    cov[1]=1.;  
    char version[]="Imach version 0.98q1, April 2015,INED-EUROREVES-Institut de longevite-Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research 25293121), Intel Software 2015";
  /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */  char fullversion[]="$Revision$ $Date$"; 
   for(agefin=age-stepm/YEARM; agefin>=age-delaymax; agefin=agefin-stepm/YEARM){  char strstart[80];
     newm=savm;  char optionfilext[10], optionfilefiname[FILENAMELENGTH];
     /* Covariates have to be included here again */  int erreur=0, nberr=0, nbwarn=0; /* Error number, number of errors number of warnings  */
      cov[2]=agefin;  int nagesqr=0, nforce=0; /* nagesqr=1 if model is including age*age, number of forces */
    /* Number of covariates model=V2+V1+ V3*age+V2*V4 */
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {  int cptcovn=0; /**< cptcovn number of covariates added in the model (excepting constant and age and age*product) */
         cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];  int cptcovt=0; /**< cptcovt number of covariates added in the model (excepting constant and age) */
         /*      printf("ij=%d k=%d Tvar[k]=%d nbcode=%d cov=%lf codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]=%d \n",ij,k, Tvar[k],nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]],cov[2+k], codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]);*/  int cptcovs=0; /**< cptcovs number of simple covariates V2+V1 =2 */
       }  int cptcovage=0; /**< Number of covariates with age: V3*age only =1 */
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];  int cptcovprodnoage=0; /**< Number of covariate products without age */   
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)  int cptcoveff=0; /* Total number of covariates to vary for printing results */
         cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];  int cptcov=0; /* Working variable */
   int npar=NPARMAX;
       /*printf("ij=%d cptcovprod=%d tvar=%d ", ij, cptcovprod, Tvar[1]);*/  int nlstate=2; /* Number of live states */
       /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf cov[4]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3],cov[4]);*/  int ndeath=1; /* Number of dead states */
       /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3]);*/  int ncovmodel=0, ncovcol=0;     /* Total number of covariables including constant a12*1 +b12*x ncovmodel=2 */
     out=matprod2(newm, pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate),1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm);  int popbased=0;
   
     savm=oldm;  int *wav; /* Number of waves for this individuual 0 is possible */
     oldm=newm;  int maxwav=0; /* Maxim number of waves */
     maxmax=0.;  int jmin=0, jmax=0; /* min, max spacing between 2 waves */
     for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++){  int ijmin=0, ijmax=0; /* Individuals having jmin and jmax */ 
       min=1.;  int gipmx=0, gsw=0; /* Global variables on the number of contributions 
       max=0.;                     to the likelihood and the sum of weights (done by funcone)*/
       for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++) {  int mle=1, weightopt=0;
         sumnew=0;  int **mw; /* mw[mi][i] is number of the mi wave for this individual */
         for(k=1; k<=ndeath; k++) sumnew+=newm[i][nlstate+k];  int **dh; /* dh[mi][i] is number of steps between mi,mi+1 for this individual */
         prlim[i][j]= newm[i][j]/(1-sumnew);  int **bh; /* bh[mi][i] is the bias (+ or -) for this individual if the delay between
         max=FMAX(max,prlim[i][j]);             * wave mi and wave mi+1 is not an exact multiple of stepm. */
         min=FMIN(min,prlim[i][j]);  int countcallfunc=0;  /* Count the number of calls to func */
       }  double jmean=1; /* Mean space between 2 waves */
       maxmin=max-min;  double **matprod2(); /* test */
       maxmax=FMAX(maxmax,maxmin);  double **oldm, **newm, **savm; /* Working pointers to matrices */
     }  double **oldms, **newms, **savms; /* Fixed working pointers to matrices */
     if(maxmax < ftolpl){  /*FILE *fic ; */ /* Used in readdata only */
       return prlim;  FILE *ficpar, *ficparo,*ficres, *ficresp, *ficrespl, *ficrespij, *ficrest,*ficresf,*ficrespop;
     }  FILE *ficlog, *ficrespow;
   }  int globpr=0; /* Global variable for printing or not */
 }  double fretone; /* Only one call to likelihood */
   long ipmx=0; /* Number of contributions */
 /*************** transition probabilities ***************/  double sw; /* Sum of weights */
   char filerespow[FILENAMELENGTH];
 double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate )  char fileresilk[FILENAMELENGTH]; /* File of individual contributions to the likelihood */
 {  FILE *ficresilk;
   double s1, s2;  FILE *ficgp,*ficresprob,*ficpop, *ficresprobcov, *ficresprobcor;
   /*double t34;*/  FILE *ficresprobmorprev;
   int i,j,j1, nc, ii, jj;  FILE *fichtm, *fichtmcov; /* Html File */
   FILE *ficreseij;
     for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){  char filerese[FILENAMELENGTH];
     for(j=1; j<i;j++){  FILE *ficresstdeij;
       for (nc=1, s2=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){  char fileresstde[FILENAMELENGTH];
         /*s2 += param[i][j][nc]*cov[nc];*/  FILE *ficrescveij;
         s2 += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-1)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];  char filerescve[FILENAMELENGTH];
         /*printf("Int j<i s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e\n",s1,s2);*/  FILE  *ficresvij;
       }  char fileresv[FILENAMELENGTH];
       ps[i][j]=s2;  FILE  *ficresvpl;
       /*printf("s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e\n",s1,s2);*/  char fileresvpl[FILENAMELENGTH];
     }  char title[MAXLINE];
     for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){  char optionfile[FILENAMELENGTH], datafile[FILENAMELENGTH],  filerespl[FILENAMELENGTH];
       for (nc=1, s2=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){  char plotcmd[FILENAMELENGTH], pplotcmd[FILENAMELENGTH];
         s2 += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-2)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];  char tmpout[FILENAMELENGTH],  tmpout2[FILENAMELENGTH]; 
         /*printf("Int j>i s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e %lx %lx\n",s1,s2,s1,s2);*/  char command[FILENAMELENGTH];
       }  int  outcmd=0;
       ps[i][j]=s2;  
     }  char fileres[FILENAMELENGTH], filerespij[FILENAMELENGTH], filereso[FILENAMELENGTH], rfileres[FILENAMELENGTH];
   }  
     /*ps[3][2]=1;*/  char filelog[FILENAMELENGTH]; /* Log file */
   char filerest[FILENAMELENGTH];
   for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){  char fileregp[FILENAMELENGTH];
      s1=0;  char popfile[FILENAMELENGTH];
     for(j=1; j<i; j++)  
       s1+=exp(ps[i][j]);  char optionfilegnuplot[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilehtm[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilehtmcov[FILENAMELENGTH] ;
     for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)  
       s1+=exp(ps[i][j]);  /* struct timeval start_time, end_time, curr_time, last_time, forecast_time; */
     ps[i][i]=1./(s1+1.);  /* struct timezone tzp; */
     for(j=1; j<i; j++)  /* extern int gettimeofday(); */
       ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];  struct tm tml, *gmtime(), *localtime();
     for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)  
       ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];  extern time_t time();
     /* ps[i][nlstate+1]=1.-s1- ps[i][i];*/ /* Sum should be 1 */  
   } /* end i */  struct tm start_time, end_time, curr_time, last_time, forecast_time;
   time_t  rstart_time, rend_time, rcurr_time, rlast_time, rforecast_time; /* raw time */
   for(ii=nlstate+1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){  struct tm tm;
     for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){  
       ps[ii][jj]=0;  char strcurr[80], strfor[80];
       ps[ii][ii]=1;  
     }  char *endptr;
   }  long lval;
   double dval;
   
   /*   for(ii=1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){  #define NR_END 1
     for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){  #define FREE_ARG char*
      printf("%lf ",ps[ii][jj]);  #define FTOL 1.0e-10
    }  
     printf("\n ");  #define NRANSI 
     }  #define ITMAX 200 
     printf("\n ");printf("%lf ",cov[2]);*/  
 /*  #define TOL 2.0e-4 
   for(i=1; i<= npar; i++) printf("%f ",x[i]);  
   goto end;*/  #define CGOLD 0.3819660 
     return ps;  #define ZEPS 1.0e-10 
 }  #define SHFT(a,b,c,d) (a)=(b);(b)=(c);(c)=(d); 
   
 /**************** Product of 2 matrices ******************/  #define GOLD 1.618034 
   #define GLIMIT 100.0 
 double **matprod2(double **out, double **in,long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long ncolol, long ncoloh, double **b)  #define TINY 1.0e-20 
 {  
   /* Computes the matrix product of in(1,nrh-nrl+1)(1,nch-ncl+1) times  static double maxarg1,maxarg2;
      b(1,nch-ncl+1)(1,ncoloh-ncolol+1) into out(...) */  #define FMAX(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)>(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))
   /* in, b, out are matrice of pointers which should have been initialized  #define FMIN(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)<(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))
      before: only the contents of out is modified. The function returns    
      a pointer to pointers identical to out */  #define SIGN(a,b) ((b)>0.0 ? fabs(a) : -fabs(a))
   long i, j, k;  #define rint(a) floor(a+0.5)
   for(i=nrl; i<= nrh; i++)  /* http://www.thphys.uni-heidelberg.de/~robbers/cmbeasy/doc/html/myutils_8h-source.html */
     for(k=ncolol; k<=ncoloh; k++)  #define mytinydouble 1.0e-16
       for(j=ncl,out[i][k]=0.; j<=nch; j++)  /* #define DEQUAL(a,b) (fabs((a)-(b))<mytinydouble) */
         out[i][k] +=in[i][j]*b[j][k];  /* http://www.thphys.uni-heidelberg.de/~robbers/cmbeasy/doc/html/mynrutils_8h-source.html */
   /* static double dsqrarg; */
   return out;  /* #define DSQR(a) (DEQUAL((dsqrarg=(a)),0.0) ? 0.0 : dsqrarg*dsqrarg) */
 }  static double sqrarg;
   #define SQR(a) ((sqrarg=(a)) == 0.0 ? 0.0 :sqrarg*sqrarg)
   #define SWAP(a,b) {temp=(a);(a)=(b);(b)=temp;} 
 /************* Higher Matrix Product ***************/  int agegomp= AGEGOMP;
   
 double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstepm, double age, int hstepm, double *x, int nlstate, int stepm, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij )  int imx; 
 {  int stepm=1;
   /* Computes the transition matrix starting at age 'age' over 'nhstepm*hstepm*stepm' month  /* Stepm, step in month: minimum step interpolation*/
      duration (i.e. until  
      age (in years)  age+nhstepm*stepm/12) by multiplying nhstepm*hstepm matrices.  int estepm;
      Output is stored in matrix po[i][j][h] for h every 'hstepm' step  /* Estepm, step in month to interpolate survival function in order to approximate Life Expectancy*/
      (typically every 2 years instead of every month which is too big).  
      Model is determined by parameters x and covariates have to be  int m,nb;
      included manually here.  long *num;
   int firstpass=0, lastpass=4,*cod, *ncodemax, *Tage,*cens;
      */  double **agev,*moisnais, *annais, *moisdc, *andc,**mint, **anint;
   double **pmmij, ***probs;
   int i, j, d, h, k;  double *ageexmed,*agecens;
   double **out, cov[NCOVMAX];  double dateintmean=0;
   double **newm;  
   double *weight;
   /* Hstepm could be zero and should return the unit matrix */  int **s; /* Status */
   for (i=1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)  double *agedc;
     for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){  double  **covar; /**< covar[j,i], value of jth covariate for individual i,
       oldm[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);                    * covar=matrix(0,NCOVMAX,1,n); 
       po[i][j][0]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);                    * cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*age; */
     }  double  idx; 
   /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */  int **nbcode, *Tvar; /**< model=V2 => Tvar[1]= 2 */
   for(h=1; h <=nhstepm; h++){  int *Ndum; /** Freq of modality (tricode */
     for(d=1; d <=hstepm; d++){  int **codtab; /**< codtab=imatrix(1,100,1,10); */
       newm=savm;  int **Tvard, *Tprod, cptcovprod, *Tvaraff;
       /* Covariates have to be included here again */  double *lsurv, *lpop, *tpop;
       cov[1]=1.;  
       cov[2]=age+((h-1)*hstepm + (d-1))*stepm/YEARM;  double ftol=FTOL; /**< Tolerance for computing Max Likelihood */
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];  double ftolhess; /**< Tolerance for computing hessian */
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++)  
         cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];  /**************** split *************************/
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)  static  int split( char *path, char *dirc, char *name, char *ext, char *finame )
         cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];  {
     /* From a file name with (full) path (either Unix or Windows) we extract the directory (dirc)
        the name of the file (name), its extension only (ext) and its first part of the name (finame)
       /*printf("hxi cptcov=%d cptcode=%d\n",cptcov,cptcode);*/    */ 
       /*printf("h=%d d=%d age=%f cov=%f\n",h,d,age,cov[2]);*/    char  *ss;                            /* pointer */
       out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,    int   l1=0, l2=0;                             /* length counters */
                    pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));  
       savm=oldm;    l1 = strlen(path );                   /* length of path */
       oldm=newm;    if ( l1 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );
     }    ss= strrchr( path, DIRSEPARATOR );            /* find last / */
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)    if ( ss == NULL ) {                   /* no directory, so determine current directory */
       for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {      strcpy( name, path );               /* we got the fullname name because no directory */
         po[i][j][h]=newm[i][j];      /*if(strrchr(path, ODIRSEPARATOR )==NULL)
         /*printf("i=%d j=%d h=%d po[i][j][h]=%f ",i,j,h,po[i][j][h]);        printf("Warning you should use %s as a separator\n",DIRSEPARATOR);*/
          */      /* get current working directory */
       }      /*    extern  char* getcwd ( char *buf , int len);*/
   } /* end h */  #ifdef WIN32
   return po;      if (_getcwd( dirc, FILENAME_MAX ) == NULL ) {
 }  #else
           if (getcwd(dirc, FILENAME_MAX) == NULL) {
   #endif
 /*************** log-likelihood *************/        return( GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD );
 double func( double *x)      }
 {      /* got dirc from getcwd*/
   int i, ii, j, k, mi, d, kk;      printf(" DIRC = %s \n",dirc);
   double l, ll[NLSTATEMAX], cov[NCOVMAX];    } else {                              /* strip direcotry from path */
   double **out;      ss++;                               /* after this, the filename */
   double sw; /* Sum of weights */      l2 = strlen( ss );                  /* length of filename */
   double lli; /* Individual log likelihood */      if ( l2 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );
   long ipmx;      strcpy( name, ss );         /* save file name */
   /*extern weight */      strncpy( dirc, path, l1 - l2 );     /* now the directory */
   /* We are differentiating ll according to initial status */      dirc[l1-l2] = '\0';                 /* add zero */
   /*  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) printf("%f ", x[i]);*/      printf(" DIRC2 = %s \n",dirc);
   /*for(i=1;i<imx;i++)    }
     printf(" %d\n",s[4][i]);    /* We add a separator at the end of dirc if not exists */
   */    l1 = strlen( dirc );                  /* length of directory */
   cov[1]=1.;    if( dirc[l1-1] != DIRSEPARATOR ){
       dirc[l1] =  DIRSEPARATOR;
   for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) ll[k]=0.;      dirc[l1+1] = 0; 
   for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){      printf(" DIRC3 = %s \n",dirc);
     for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];    }
     for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){    ss = strrchr( name, '.' );            /* find last / */
       for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)    if (ss >0){
         for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);      ss++;
       for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){      strcpy(ext,ss);                     /* save extension */
         newm=savm;      l1= strlen( name);
         cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;      l2= strlen(ss)+1;
         for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {      strncpy( finame, name, l1-l2);
           cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];      finame[l1-l2]= 0;
         }    }
          
         out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,    return( 0 );                          /* we're done */
                      1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));  }
         savm=oldm;  
         oldm=newm;  
          /******************************************/
          
       } /* end mult */  void replace_back_to_slash(char *s, char*t)
        {
       lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]);    int i;
       /* printf(" %f ",out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]);*/    int lg=0;
       ipmx +=1;    i=0;
       sw += weight[i];    lg=strlen(t);
       ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;    for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {
     } /* end of wave */      (s[i] = t[i]);
   } /* end of individual */      if (t[i]== '\\') s[i]='/';
     }
   for(k=1,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++) l += ll[k];  }
   /* printf("l1=%f l2=%f ",ll[1],ll[2]); */  
   l= l*ipmx/sw; /* To get the same order of magnitude as if weight=1 for every body */  char *trimbb(char *out, char *in)
   return -l;  { /* Trim multiple blanks in line but keeps first blanks if line starts with blanks */
 }    char *s;
     s=out;
     while (*in != '\0'){
 /*********** Maximum Likelihood Estimation ***************/      while( *in == ' ' && *(in+1) == ' '){ /* && *(in+1) != '\0'){*/
         in++;
 void mlikeli(FILE *ficres,double p[], int npar, int ncovmodel, int nlstate, double ftol, double (*func)(double []))      }
 {      *out++ = *in++;
   int i,j, iter;    }
   double **xi,*delti;    *out='\0';
   double fret;    return s;
   xi=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);  }
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)  
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)  /* char *substrchaine(char *out, char *in, char *chain) */
       xi[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);  /* { */
   printf("Powell\n");  /*   /\* Substract chain 'chain' from 'in', return and output 'out' *\/ */
   powell(p,xi,npar,ftol,&iter,&fret,func);  /*   char *s, *t; */
   /*   t=in;s=out; */
    printf("\n#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter,func(p));  /*   while ((*in != *chain) && (*in != '\0')){ */
   fprintf(ficres,"#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f \n",iter,func(p));  /*     *out++ = *in++; */
   /*   } */
 }  
   /*   /\* *in matches *chain *\/ */
 /**** Computes Hessian and covariance matrix ***/  /*   while ((*in++ == *chain++) && (*in != '\0')){ */
 void hesscov(double **matcov, double p[], int npar, double delti[], double ftolhess, double (*func)(double []))  /*     printf("*in = %c, *out= %c *chain= %c \n", *in, *out, *chain);  */
 {  /*   } */
   double  **a,**y,*x,pd;  /*   in--; chain--; */
   double **hess;  /*   while ( (*in != '\0')){ */
   int i, j,jk;  /*     printf("Bef *in = %c, *out= %c *chain= %c \n", *in, *out, *chain);  */
   int *indx;  /*     *out++ = *in++; */
   /*     printf("Aft *in = %c, *out= %c *chain= %c \n", *in, *out, *chain);  */
   double hessii(double p[], double delta, int theta, double delti[]);  /*   } */
   double hessij(double p[], double delti[], int i, int j);  /*   *out='\0'; */
   void lubksb(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double b[]) ;  /*   out=s; */
   void ludcmp(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double *d) ;  /*   return out; */
   /* } */
   hess=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);  char *substrchaine(char *out, char *in, char *chain)
   {
   printf("\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");    /* Substract chain 'chain' from 'in', return and output 'out' */
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){    /* in="V1+V1*age+age*age+V2", chain="age*age" */
     printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);  
     hess[i][i]=hessii(p,ftolhess,i,delti);    char *strloc;
     /*printf(" %f ",p[i]);*/  
     /*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][i]);*/    strcpy (out, in); 
   }    strloc = strstr(out, chain); /* strloc points to out at age*age+V2 */
      printf("Bef strloc=%s chain=%s out=%s \n", strloc, chain, out);
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {    if(strloc != NULL){ 
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)  {      /* will affect out */ /* strloc+strlenc(chain)=+V2 */ /* Will also work in Unicode */
       if (j>i) {      memmove(strloc,strloc+strlen(chain), strlen(strloc+strlen(chain))+1);
         printf(".%d%d",i,j);fflush(stdout);      /* strcpy (strloc, strloc +strlen(chain));*/
         hess[i][j]=hessij(p,delti,i,j);    }
         hess[j][i]=hess[i][j];        printf("Aft strloc=%s chain=%s in=%s out=%s \n", strloc, chain, in, out);
         /*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][j]);*/    return out;
       }  }
     }  
   }  
   printf("\n");  char *cutl(char *blocc, char *alocc, char *in, char occ)
   {
   printf("\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");    /* cuts string in into blocc and alocc where blocc ends before FIRST occurence of char 'occ' 
         and alocc starts after first occurence of char 'occ' : ex cutv(blocc,alocc,"abcdef2ghi2j",'2')
   a=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);       gives blocc="abcdef" and alocc="ghi2j".
   y=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);       If occ is not found blocc is null and alocc is equal to in. Returns blocc
   x=vector(1,npar);    */
   indx=ivector(1,npar);    char *s, *t;
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)    t=in;s=in;
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=hess[i][j];    while ((*in != occ) && (*in != '\0')){
   ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);      *alocc++ = *in++;
     }
   for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {    if( *in == occ){
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;      *(alocc)='\0';
     x[j]=1;      s=++in;
     lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);    }
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){   
       matcov[i][j]=x[i];    if (s == t) {/* occ not found */
     }      *(alocc-(in-s))='\0';
   }      in=s;
     }
   printf("\n#Hessian matrix#\n");    while ( *in != '\0'){
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {      *blocc++ = *in++;
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {    }
       printf("%.3e ",hess[i][j]);  
     }    *blocc='\0';
     printf("\n");    return t;
   }  }
   char *cutv(char *blocc, char *alocc, char *in, char occ)
   /* Recompute Inverse */  {
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)    /* cuts string in into blocc and alocc where blocc ends before LAST occurence of char 'occ' 
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=matcov[i][j];       and alocc starts after last occurence of char 'occ' : ex cutv(blocc,alocc,"abcdef2ghi2j",'2')
   ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);       gives blocc="abcdef2ghi" and alocc="j".
        If occ is not found blocc is null and alocc is equal to in. Returns alocc
   /*  printf("\n#Hessian matrix recomputed#\n");    */
     char *s, *t;
   for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {    t=in;s=in;
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;    while (*in != '\0'){
     x[j]=1;      while( *in == occ){
     lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);        *blocc++ = *in++;
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){        s=in;
       y[i][j]=x[i];      }
       printf("%.3e ",y[i][j]);      *blocc++ = *in++;
     }    }
     printf("\n");    if (s == t) /* occ not found */
   }      *(blocc-(in-s))='\0';
   */    else
       *(blocc-(in-s)-1)='\0';
   free_matrix(a,1,npar,1,npar);    in=s;
   free_matrix(y,1,npar,1,npar);    while ( *in != '\0'){
   free_vector(x,1,npar);      *alocc++ = *in++;
   free_ivector(indx,1,npar);    }
   free_matrix(hess,1,npar,1,npar);  
     *alocc='\0';
     return s;
 }  }
   
 /*************** hessian matrix ****************/  int nbocc(char *s, char occ)
 double hessii( double x[], double delta, int theta, double delti[])  {
 {    int i,j=0;
   int i;    int lg=20;
   int l=1, lmax=20;    i=0;
   double k1,k2;    lg=strlen(s);
   double p2[NPARMAX+1];    for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {
   double res;    if  (s[i] == occ ) j++;
   double delt, delts, nkhi=10.,nkhif=1., khi=1.e-4;    }
   double fx;    return j;
   int k=0,kmax=10;  }
   double l1;  
   /* void cutv(char *u,char *v, char*t, char occ) */
   fx=func(x);  /* { */
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];  /*   /\* cuts string t into u and v where u ends before last occurence of char 'occ'  */
   for(l=0 ; l <=lmax; l++){  /*      and v starts after last occurence of char 'occ' : ex cutv(u,v,"abcdef2ghi2j",'2') */
     l1=pow(10,l);  /*      gives u="abcdef2ghi" and v="j" *\/ */
     delts=delt;  /*   int i,lg,j,p=0; */
     for(k=1 ; k <kmax; k=k+1){  /*   i=0; */
       delt = delta*(l1*k);  /*   lg=strlen(t); */
       p2[theta]=x[theta] +delt;  /*   for(j=0; j<=lg-1; j++) { */
       k1=func(p2)-fx;  /*     if((t[j]!= occ) && (t[j+1]== occ)) p=j+1; */
       p2[theta]=x[theta]-delt;  /*   } */
       k2=func(p2)-fx;  
       /*res= (k1-2.0*fx+k2)/delt/delt; */  /*   for(j=0; j<p; j++) { */
       res= (k1+k2)/delt/delt/2.; /* Divided by because L and not 2*L */  /*     (u[j] = t[j]); */
        /*   } */
 #ifdef DEBUG  /*      u[p]='\0'; */
       printf("%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);  
 #endif  /*    for(j=0; j<= lg; j++) { */
       /*if(fabs(k1-2.0*fx+k2) <1.e-13){ */  /*     if (j>=(p+1))(v[j-p-1] = t[j]); */
       if((k1 <khi/nkhi/2.) || (k2 <khi/nkhi/2.)){  /*   } */
         k=kmax;  /* } */
       }  
       else if((k1 >khi/nkhif) || (k2 >khi/nkhif)){ /* Keeps lastvalue before 3.84/2 KHI2 5% 1d.f. */  #ifdef _WIN32
         k=kmax; l=lmax*10.;  char * strsep(char **pp, const char *delim)
       }  {
       else if((k1 >khi/nkhi) || (k2 >khi/nkhi)){    char *p, *q;
         delts=delt;           
       }    if ((p = *pp) == NULL)
     }      return 0;
   }    if ((q = strpbrk (p, delim)) != NULL)
   delti[theta]=delts;    {
   return res;      *pp = q + 1;
        *q = '\0';
 }    }
     else
 double hessij( double x[], double delti[], int thetai,int thetaj)      *pp = 0;
 {    return p;
   int i;  }
   int l=1, l1, lmax=20;  #endif
   double k1,k2,k3,k4,res,fx;  
   double p2[NPARMAX+1];  /********************** nrerror ********************/
   int k;  
   void nrerror(char error_text[])
   fx=func(x);  {
   for (k=1; k<=2; k++) {    fprintf(stderr,"ERREUR ...\n");
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];    fprintf(stderr,"%s\n",error_text);
     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;    exit(EXIT_FAILURE);
     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;  }
     k1=func(p2)-fx;  /*********************** vector *******************/
    double *vector(int nl, int nh)
     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;  {
     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;    double *v;
     k2=func(p2)-fx;    v=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
      if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in vector");
     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;    return v-nl+NR_END;
     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;  }
     k3=func(p2)-fx;  
    /************************ free vector ******************/
     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;  void free_vector(double*v, int nl, int nh)
     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;  {
     k4=func(p2)-fx;    free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
     res=(k1-k2-k3+k4)/4.0/delti[thetai]*k/delti[thetaj]*k/2.; /* Because of L not 2*L */  }
 #ifdef DEBUG  
     printf("%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);  /************************ivector *******************************/
 #endif  int *ivector(long nl,long nh)
   }  {
   return res;    int *v;
 }    v=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));
     if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");
 /************** Inverse of matrix **************/    return v-nl+NR_END;
 void ludcmp(double **a, int n, int *indx, double *d)  }
 {  
   int i,imax,j,k;  /******************free ivector **************************/
   double big,dum,sum,temp;  void free_ivector(int *v, long nl, long nh)
   double *vv;  {
      free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
   vv=vector(1,n);  }
   *d=1.0;  
   for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {  /************************lvector *******************************/
     big=0.0;  long *lvector(long nl,long nh)
     for (j=1;j<=n;j++)  {
       if ((temp=fabs(a[i][j])) > big) big=temp;    long *v;
     if (big == 0.0) nrerror("Singular matrix in routine ludcmp");    v=(long *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(long)));
     vv[i]=1.0/big;    if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");
   }    return v-nl+NR_END;
   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {  }
     for (i=1;i<j;i++) {  
       sum=a[i][j];  /******************free lvector **************************/
       for (k=1;k<i;k++) sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j];  void free_lvector(long *v, long nl, long nh)
       a[i][j]=sum;  {
     }    free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
     big=0.0;  }
     for (i=j;i<=n;i++) {  
       sum=a[i][j];  /******************* imatrix *******************************/
       for (k=1;k<j;k++)  int **imatrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch) 
         sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j];       /* allocate a int matrix with subscript range m[nrl..nrh][ncl..nch] */ 
       a[i][j]=sum;  { 
       if ( (dum=vv[i]*fabs(sum)) >= big) {    long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1,ncol=nch-ncl+1; 
         big=dum;    int **m; 
         imax=i;    
       }    /* allocate pointers to rows */ 
     }    m=(int **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(int*))); 
     if (j != imax) {    if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()"); 
       for (k=1;k<=n;k++) {    m += NR_END; 
         dum=a[imax][k];    m -= nrl; 
         a[imax][k]=a[j][k];    
         a[j][k]=dum;    
       }    /* allocate rows and set pointers to them */ 
       *d = -(*d);    m[nrl]=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(int))); 
       vv[imax]=vv[j];    if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()"); 
     }    m[nrl] += NR_END; 
     indx[j]=imax;    m[nrl] -= ncl; 
     if (a[j][j] == 0.0) a[j][j]=TINY;    
     if (j != n) {    for(i=nrl+1;i<=nrh;i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol; 
       dum=1.0/(a[j][j]);    
       for (i=j+1;i<=n;i++) a[i][j] *= dum;    /* return pointer to array of pointers to rows */ 
     }    return m; 
   }  } 
   free_vector(vv,1,n);  /* Doesn't work */  
 ;  /****************** free_imatrix *************************/
 }  void free_imatrix(m,nrl,nrh,ncl,nch)
         int **m;
 void lubksb(double **a, int n, int *indx, double b[])        long nch,ncl,nrh,nrl; 
 {       /* free an int matrix allocated by imatrix() */ 
   int i,ii=0,ip,j;  { 
   double sum;    free((FREE_ARG) (m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END)); 
      free((FREE_ARG) (m+nrl-NR_END)); 
   for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {  } 
     ip=indx[i];  
     sum=b[ip];  /******************* matrix *******************************/
     b[ip]=b[i];  double **matrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)
     if (ii)  {
       for (j=ii;j<=i-1;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j];    long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1;
     else if (sum) ii=i;    double **m;
     b[i]=sum;  
   }    m=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));
   for (i=n;i>=1;i--) {    if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");
     sum=b[i];    m += NR_END;
     for (j=i+1;j<=n;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j];    m -= nrl;
     b[i]=sum/a[i][i];  
   }    m[nrl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
 }    if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");
     m[nrl] += NR_END;
 /************ Frequencies ********************/    m[nrl] -= ncl;
 void  freqsummary(char fileres[], int agemin, int agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, double dateprev1,double dateprev2,double jprev1, double mprev1,double anprev1,double jprev2, double mprev2,double anprev2)  
 {  /* Some frequencies */    for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;
      return m;
   int i, m, jk, k1,i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;    /* print *(*(m+1)+70) or print m[1][70]; print m+1 or print &(m[1]) or &(m[1][0])
   double ***freq; /* Frequencies */  m[i] = address of ith row of the table. &(m[i]) is its value which is another adress
   double *pp;  that of m[i][0]. In order to get the value p m[i][0] but it is unitialized.
   double pos, k2, dateintsum=0,k2cpt=0;     */
   FILE *ficresp;  }
   char fileresp[FILENAMELENGTH];  
    /*************************free matrix ************************/
   pp=vector(1,nlstate);  void free_matrix(double **m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)
   probs= ma3x(1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);  {
   strcpy(fileresp,"p");    free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));
   strcat(fileresp,fileres);    free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));
   if((ficresp=fopen(fileresp,"w"))==NULL) {  }
     printf("Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);  
     exit(0);  /******************* ma3x *******************************/
   }  double ***ma3x(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long nll, long nlh)
   freq= ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,agemin,agemax+3);  {
   j1=0;    long i, j, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1, nlay=nlh-nll+1;
      double ***m;
   j=cptcoveff;  
   if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}    m=(double ***) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));
      if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");
   for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){    m += NR_END;
     for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){    m -= nrl;
       j1++;  
       /*printf("cptcoveff=%d Tvaraff=%d", cptcoveff,Tvaraff[1]);    m[nrl]=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
         scanf("%d", i);*/    if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");
       for (i=-1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)      m[nrl] += NR_END;
         for (jk=-1; jk<=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)      m[nrl] -= ncl;
           for(m=agemin; m <= agemax+3; m++)  
             freq[i][jk][m]=0;    for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;
        
       dateintsum=0;    m[nrl][ncl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol*nlay+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
       k2cpt=0;    if (!m[nrl][ncl]) nrerror("allocation failure 3 in matrix()");
       for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {    m[nrl][ncl] += NR_END;
         bool=1;    m[nrl][ncl] -= nll;
         if  (cptcovn>0) {    for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++) 
           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++)      m[nrl][j]=m[nrl][j-1]+nlay;
             if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]])    
               bool=0;    for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) {
         }      m[i][ncl]=m[i-1l][ncl]+ncol*nlay;
         if (bool==1) {      for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++) 
           for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){        m[i][j]=m[i][j-1]+nlay;
             k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);    }
             if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {    return m; 
               if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=agemax+1;    /*  gdb: p *(m+1) <=> p m[1] and p (m+1) <=> p (m+1) <=> p &(m[1])
               if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=agemax+2;             &(m[i][j][k]) <=> *((*(m+i) + j)+k)
               if (m<lastpass) {    */
                 freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];  }
                 freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int) agemax+3] += weight[i];  
               }  /*************************free ma3x ************************/
                void free_ma3x(double ***m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch,long nll, long nlh)
               if ((agev[m][i]>1) && (agev[m][i]< (agemax+3))) {  {
                 dateintsum=dateintsum+k2;    free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl][ncl]+ nll-NR_END));
                 k2cpt++;    free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));
               }    free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));
             }  }
           }  
         }  /*************** function subdirf ***********/
       }  char *subdirf(char fileres[])
          {
       fprintf(ficresp, "#Count between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);    /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
     strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
       if  (cptcovn>0) {    strcat(tmpout,"/"); /* Add to the right */
         fprintf(ficresp, "\n#********** Variable ");    strcat(tmpout,fileres);
         for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresp, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);    return tmpout;
         fprintf(ficresp, "**********\n#");  }
       }  
       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)  /*************** function subdirf2 ***********/
         fprintf(ficresp, " Age Prev(%d) N(%d) N",i,i);  char *subdirf2(char fileres[], char *preop)
       fprintf(ficresp, "\n");  {
          
       for(i=(int)agemin; i <= (int)agemax+3; i++){    /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
         if(i==(int)agemax+3)    strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
           printf("Total");    strcat(tmpout,"/");
         else    strcat(tmpout,preop);
           printf("Age %d", i);    strcat(tmpout,fileres);
         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){    return tmpout;
           for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)  }
             pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];  
         }  /*************** function subdirf3 ***********/
         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){  char *subdirf3(char fileres[], char *preop, char *preop2)
           for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)  {
             pos += freq[jk][m][i];    
           if(pp[jk]>=1.e-10)    /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
             printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);    strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
           else    strcat(tmpout,"/");
             printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);    strcat(tmpout,preop);
         }    strcat(tmpout,preop2);
     strcat(tmpout,fileres);
         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){    return tmpout;
           for(m=0, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)  }
             pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];  
         }  char *asc_diff_time(long time_sec, char ascdiff[])
   {
         for(jk=1,pos=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++)    long sec_left, days, hours, minutes;
           pos += pp[jk];    days = (time_sec) / (60*60*24);
         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){    sec_left = (time_sec) % (60*60*24);
           if(pos>=1.e-5)    hours = (sec_left) / (60*60) ;
             printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);    sec_left = (sec_left) %(60*60);
           else    minutes = (sec_left) /60;
             printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);    sec_left = (sec_left) % (60);
           if( i <= (int) agemax){    sprintf(ascdiff,"%ld day(s) %ld hour(s) %ld minute(s) %ld second(s)",days, hours, minutes, sec_left);  
             if(pos>=1.e-5){    return ascdiff;
               fprintf(ficresp," %d %.5f %.0f %.0f",i,pp[jk]/pos, pp[jk],pos);  }
               probs[i][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;  
               /*printf("\ni=%d jk=%d j1=%d %.5f %.0f %.0f %f",i,jk,j1,pp[jk]/pos, pp[jk],pos,probs[i][jk][j1]);*/  /***************** f1dim *************************/
             }  extern int ncom; 
             else  extern double *pcom,*xicom;
               fprintf(ficresp," %d NaNq %.0f %.0f",i,pp[jk],pos);  extern double (*nrfunc)(double []); 
           }   
         }  double f1dim(double x) 
          { 
         for(jk=-1; jk <=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)    int j; 
           for(m=-1; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)    double f;
             if(freq[jk][m][i] !=0 ) printf(" %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);    double *xt; 
         if(i <= (int) agemax)   
           fprintf(ficresp,"\n");    xt=vector(1,ncom); 
         printf("\n");    for (j=1;j<=ncom;j++) xt[j]=pcom[j]+x*xicom[j]; 
       }    f=(*nrfunc)(xt); 
     }    free_vector(xt,1,ncom); 
   }    return f; 
   dateintmean=dateintsum/k2cpt;  } 
    
   fclose(ficresp);  /*****************brent *************************/
   free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) agemin,(int) agemax+3);  double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx, double (*f)(double), double tol,  double *xmin) 
   free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);  {
      /* Given a function f, and given a bracketing triplet of abscissas ax, bx, cx (such that bx is
   /* End of Freq */     * between ax and cx, and f(bx) is less than both f(ax) and f(cx) ), this routine isolates
 }     * the minimum to a fractional precision of about tol using Brent’s method. The abscissa of
      * the minimum is returned as xmin, and the minimum function value is returned as brent , the
 /************ Prevalence ********************/     * returned function value. 
 void prevalence(int agemin, float agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, double dateprev1,double dateprev2, double calagedate)    */
 {  /* Some frequencies */    int iter; 
      double a,b,d,etemp;
   int i, m, jk, k1, i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;    double fu=0,fv,fw,fx;
   double ***freq; /* Frequencies */    double ftemp=0.;
   double *pp;    double p,q,r,tol1,tol2,u,v,w,x,xm; 
   double pos, k2;    double e=0.0; 
    
   pp=vector(1,nlstate);    a=(ax < cx ? ax : cx); 
   probs= ma3x(1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);    b=(ax > cx ? ax : cx); 
      x=w=v=bx; 
   freq=ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,agemin,agemax+3);    fw=fv=fx=(*f)(x); 
   j1=0;    for (iter=1;iter<=ITMAX;iter++) { 
        xm=0.5*(a+b); 
   j=cptcoveff;      tol2=2.0*(tol1=tol*fabs(x)+ZEPS); 
   if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}      /*          if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret)))*/
        printf(".");fflush(stdout);
   for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){      fprintf(ficlog,".");fflush(ficlog);
     for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){  #ifdef DEBUGBRENT
       j1++;      printf("br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);
            fprintf(ficlog,"br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);
       for (i=-1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)        /*          if ((fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a)))||(2.0*fabs(fu-ftemp) <= ftol*1.e-2*(fabs(fu)+fabs(ftemp)))) { */
         for (jk=-1; jk<=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)    #endif
           for(m=agemin; m <= agemax+3; m++)      if (fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a))){ 
             freq[i][jk][m]=0;        *xmin=x; 
              return fx; 
       for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {      } 
         bool=1;      ftemp=fu;
         if  (cptcovn>0) {      if (fabs(e) > tol1) { 
           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++)        r=(x-w)*(fx-fv); 
             if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]])        q=(x-v)*(fx-fw); 
               bool=0;        p=(x-v)*q-(x-w)*r; 
         }        q=2.0*(q-r); 
         if (bool==1) {        if (q > 0.0) p = -p; 
           for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){        q=fabs(q); 
             k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);        etemp=e; 
             if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {        e=d; 
               if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=agemax+1;        if (fabs(p) >= fabs(0.5*q*etemp) || p <= q*(a-x) || p >= q*(b-x)) 
               if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=agemax+2;          d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x)); 
               if (m<lastpass) {        else { 
                 if (calagedate>0)          d=p/q; 
                   freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)(agev[m][i]+1-((int)calagedate %12)/12.)] += weight[i];          u=x+d; 
                 else          if (u-a < tol2 || b-u < tol2) 
                   freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];            d=SIGN(tol1,xm-x); 
                 freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)(agemax+3)] += weight[i];        } 
               }      } else { 
             }        d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x)); 
           }      } 
         }      u=(fabs(d) >= tol1 ? x+d : x+SIGN(tol1,d)); 
       }      fu=(*f)(u); 
       for(i=(int)agemin; i <= (int)agemax+3; i++){      if (fu <= fx) { 
         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){        if (u >= x) a=x; else b=x; 
           for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)        SHFT(v,w,x,u) 
             pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];        SHFT(fv,fw,fx,fu) 
         }      } else { 
         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){        if (u < x) a=u; else b=u; 
           for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)        if (fu <= fw || w == x) { 
             pos += freq[jk][m][i];          v=w; 
         }          w=u; 
                  fv=fw; 
         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){          fw=fu; 
           for(m=0, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)        } else if (fu <= fv || v == x || v == w) { 
             pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];          v=u; 
         }          fv=fu; 
                } 
         for(jk=1,pos=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++) pos += pp[jk];      } 
            } 
         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){        nrerror("Too many iterations in brent"); 
           if( i <= (int) agemax){    *xmin=x; 
             if(pos>=1.e-5){    return fx; 
               probs[i][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;  } 
             }  
           }  /****************** mnbrak ***********************/
         }  
          void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb, double *fc, 
       }              double (*func)(double)) 
     }  { /* Given a function func , and given distinct initial points ax and bx , this routine searches in
   }  the downhill direction (defined by the function as evaluated at the initial points) and returns
   new points ax , bx , cx that bracket a minimum of the function. Also returned are the function
    values at the three points, fa, fb , and fc such that fa > fb and fb < fc.
   free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) agemin,(int) agemax+3);     */
   free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);    double ulim,u,r,q, dum;
      double fu; 
 }  /* End of Freq */  
     double scale=10.;
 /************* Waves Concatenation ***************/    int iterscale=0;
   
 void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int **mw, int **s, double *agedc, double **agev, int  firstpass, int lastpass, int imx, int nlstate, int stepm)    *fa=(*func)(*ax); /*  xta[j]=pcom[j]+(*ax)*xicom[j]; fa=f(xta[j])*/
 {    *fb=(*func)(*bx); /*  xtb[j]=pcom[j]+(*bx)*xicom[j]; fb=f(xtb[j]) */
   /* Concatenates waves: wav[i] is the number of effective (useful waves) of individual i.  
      Death is a valid wave (if date is known).  
      mw[mi][i] is the mi (mi=1 to wav[i])  effective wave of individual i    /* while(*fb != *fb){ /\* *ax should be ok, reducing distance to *ax *\/ */
      dh[m][i] of dh[mw[mi][i][i] is the delay between two effective waves m=mw[mi][i]    /*   printf("Warning mnbrak *fb = %lf, *bx=%lf *ax=%lf *fa==%lf iter=%d\n",*fb, *bx, *ax, *fa, iterscale++); */
      and mw[mi+1][i]. dh depends on stepm.    /*   *bx = *ax - (*ax - *bx)/scale; */
      */    /*   *fb=(*func)(*bx);  /\*  xtb[j]=pcom[j]+(*bx)*xicom[j]; fb=f(xtb[j]) *\/ */
     /* } */
   int i, mi, m;  
   /* int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl,jmin=1e+5, jmax=-1;    if (*fb > *fa) { 
      double sum=0., jmean=0.;*/      SHFT(dum,*ax,*bx,dum) 
       SHFT(dum,*fb,*fa,dum) 
   int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl;    } 
   double sum=0.;    *cx=(*bx)+GOLD*(*bx-*ax); 
   jmin=1e+5;    *fc=(*func)(*cx); 
   jmax=-1;  #ifdef DEBUG
   jmean=0.;    printf("mnbrak0 *fb=%.12e *fc=%.12e\n",*fb,*fc);
   for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){    fprintf(ficlog,"mnbrak0 *fb=%.12e *fc=%.12e\n",*fb,*fc);
     mi=0;  #endif
     m=firstpass;    while (*fb > *fc) { /* Declining a,b,c with fa> fb > fc */
     while(s[m][i] <= nlstate){      r=(*bx-*ax)*(*fb-*fc); 
       if(s[m][i]>=1)      q=(*bx-*cx)*(*fb-*fa); 
         mw[++mi][i]=m;      u=(*bx)-((*bx-*cx)*q-(*bx-*ax)*r)/ 
       if(m >=lastpass)        (2.0*SIGN(FMAX(fabs(q-r),TINY),q-r)); /* Minimum abscissa of a parabolic estimated from (a,fa), (b,fb) and (c,fc). */
         break;      ulim=(*bx)+GLIMIT*(*cx-*bx); /* Maximum abscissa where function should be evaluated */
       else      if ((*bx-u)*(u-*cx) > 0.0) { /* if u_p is between b and c */
         m++;        fu=(*func)(u); 
     }/* end while */  #ifdef DEBUG
     if (s[m][i] > nlstate){        /* f(x)=A(x-u)**2+f(u) */
       mi++;     /* Death is another wave */        double A, fparabu; 
       /* if(mi==0)  never been interviewed correctly before death */        A= (*fb - *fa)/(*bx-*ax)/(*bx+*ax-2*u);
          /* Only death is a correct wave */        fparabu= *fa - A*(*ax-u)*(*ax-u);
       mw[mi][i]=m;        printf("mnbrak (*ax=%.12f, *fa=%.12lf), (*bx=%.12f, *fb=%.12lf), (*cx=%.12f, *fc=%.12lf),  (*u=%.12f, fu=%.12lf, fparabu=%.12f)\n",*ax,*fa,*bx,*fb,*cx,*fc,u,fu, fparabu);
     }        fprintf(ficlog, "mnbrak (*ax=%.12f, *fa=%.12lf), (*bx=%.12f, *fb=%.12lf), (*cx=%.12f, *fc=%.12lf),  (*u=%.12f, fu=%.12lf, fparabu=%.12f)\n",*ax,*fa,*bx,*fb,*cx,*fc,u,fu, fparabu);
         /* And thus,it can be that fu > *fc even if fparabu < *fc */
     wav[i]=mi;        /* mnbrak (*ax=7.666299858533, *fa=299039.693133272231), (*bx=8.595447774979, *fb=298976.598289369489),
     if(mi==0)          (*cx=10.098840694817, *fc=298946.631474258087),  (*u=9.852501168332, fu=298948.773013752128, fparabu=298945.434711494134) */
       printf("Warning, no any valid information for:%d line=%d\n",num[i],i);        /* In that case, there is no bracket in the output! Routine is wrong with many consequences.*/
   }  #endif 
   #ifdef MNBRAKORIGINAL
   for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){  #else
     for(mi=1; mi<wav[i];mi++){        if (fu > *fc) {
       if (stepm <=0)  #ifdef DEBUG
         dh[mi][i]=1;        printf("mnbrak4  fu > fc \n");
       else{        fprintf(ficlog, "mnbrak4 fu > fc\n");
         if (s[mw[mi+1][i]][i] > nlstate) {  #endif
           if (agedc[i] < 2*AGESUP) {          /* SHFT(u,*cx,*cx,u) /\* ie a=c, c=u and u=c; in that case, next SHFT(a,b,c,u) will give a=b=b, b=c=u, c=u=c and *\/  */
           j= rint(agedc[i]*12-agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12);          /* SHFT(*fa,*fc,fu,*fc) /\* (b, u, c) is a bracket while test fb > fc will be fu > fc  will exit *\/ */
           if(j==0) j=1;  /* Survives at least one month after exam */          dum=u; /* Shifting c and u */
           k=k+1;          u = *cx;
           if (j >= jmax) jmax=j;          *cx = dum;
           if (j <= jmin) jmin=j;          dum = fu;
           sum=sum+j;          fu = *fc;
           /*if (j<0) printf("j=%d num=%d \n",j,i); */          *fc =dum;
           }        } else { /* end */
         }  #ifdef DEBUG
         else{        printf("mnbrak3  fu < fc \n");
           j= rint( (agev[mw[mi+1][i]][i]*12 - agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12));        fprintf(ficlog, "mnbrak3 fu < fc\n");
           k=k+1;  #endif
           if (j >= jmax) jmax=j;          dum=u; /* Shifting c and u */
           else if (j <= jmin)jmin=j;          u = *cx;
           /*        if (j<10) printf("j=%d jmin=%d num=%d ",j,jmin,i); */          *cx = dum;
           sum=sum+j;          dum = fu;
         }          fu = *fc;
         jk= j/stepm;          *fc =dum;
         jl= j -jk*stepm;        }
         ju= j -(jk+1)*stepm;  #endif
         if(jl <= -ju)      } else if ((*cx-u)*(u-ulim) > 0.0) { /* u is after c but before ulim */
           dh[mi][i]=jk;  #ifdef DEBUG
         else        printf("mnbrak2  u after c but before ulim\n");
           dh[mi][i]=jk+1;        fprintf(ficlog, "mnbrak2 u after c but before ulim\n");
         if(dh[mi][i]==0)  #endif
           dh[mi][i]=1; /* At least one step */        fu=(*func)(u); 
       }        if (fu < *fc) { 
     }  #ifdef DEBUG
   }        printf("mnbrak2  u after c but before ulim AND fu < fc\n");
   jmean=sum/k;        fprintf(ficlog, "mnbrak2 u after c but before ulim AND fu <fc \n");
   printf("Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%f\n\n ",jmin, jmax,jmean);  #endif
  }          SHFT(*bx,*cx,u,*cx+GOLD*(*cx-*bx)) 
 /*********** Tricode ****************************/          SHFT(*fb,*fc,fu,(*func)(u)) 
 void tricode(int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int imx)        } 
 {      } else if ((u-ulim)*(ulim-*cx) >= 0.0) { /* u outside ulim (verifying that ulim is beyond c) */
   int Ndum[20],ij=1, k, j, i;  #ifdef DEBUG
   int cptcode=0;        printf("mnbrak2  u outside ulim (verifying that ulim is beyond c)\n");
   cptcoveff=0;        fprintf(ficlog, "mnbrak2 u outside ulim (verifying that ulim is beyond c)\n");
    #endif
   for (k=0; k<19; k++) Ndum[k]=0;        u=ulim; 
   for (k=1; k<=7; k++) ncodemax[k]=0;        fu=(*func)(u); 
       } else { /* u could be left to b (if r > q parabola has a maximum) */
   for (j=1; j<=(cptcovn+2*cptcovprod); j++) {  #ifdef DEBUG
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {        printf("mnbrak2  u could be left to b (if r > q parabola has a maximum)\n");
       ij=(int)(covar[Tvar[j]][i]);        fprintf(ficlog, "mnbrak2  u could be left to b (if r > q parabola has a maximum)\n");
       Ndum[ij]++;  #endif
       /*printf("i=%d ij=%d Ndum[ij]=%d imx=%d",i,ij,Ndum[ij],imx);*/        u=(*cx)+GOLD*(*cx-*bx); 
       if (ij > cptcode) cptcode=ij;        fu=(*func)(u); 
     }      } /* end tests */
       SHFT(*ax,*bx,*cx,u) 
     for (i=0; i<=cptcode; i++) {      SHFT(*fa,*fb,*fc,fu) 
       if(Ndum[i]!=0) ncodemax[j]++;  #ifdef DEBUG
     }        printf("mnbrak2 (*ax=%.12f, *fa=%.12lf), (*bx=%.12f, *fb=%.12lf), (*cx=%.12f, *fc=%.12lf),  (*u=%.12f, fu=%.12lf)\n",*ax,*fa,*bx,*fb,*cx,*fc,u,fu);
     ij=1;        fprintf(ficlog, "mnbrak2 (*ax=%.12f, *fa=%.12lf), (*bx=%.12f, *fb=%.12lf), (*cx=%.12f, *fc=%.12lf),  (*u=%.12f, fu=%.12lf)\n",*ax,*fa,*bx,*fb,*cx,*fc,u,fu);
   #endif
     } /* end while; ie return (a, b, c, fa, fb, fc) such that a < b < c with f(a) > f(b) and fb < f(c) */
     for (i=1; i<=ncodemax[j]; i++) {  } 
       for (k=0; k<=19; k++) {  
         if (Ndum[k] != 0) {  /*************** linmin ************************/
           nbcode[Tvar[j]][ij]=k;  /* Given an n -dimensional point p[1..n] and an n -dimensional direction xi[1..n] , moves and
            resets p to where the function func(p) takes on a minimum along the direction xi from p ,
           ij++;  and replaces xi by the actual vector displacement that p was moved. Also returns as fret
         }  the value of func at the returned location p . This is actually all accomplished by calling the
         if (ij > ncodemax[j]) break;  routines mnbrak and brent .*/
       }    int ncom; 
     }  double *pcom,*xicom;
   }    double (*nrfunc)(double []); 
    
  for (k=0; k<19; k++) Ndum[k]=0;  void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,double (*func)(double [])) 
   { 
  for (i=1; i<=ncovmodel-2; i++) {    double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx, 
       ij=Tvar[i];                 double (*f)(double), double tol, double *xmin); 
       Ndum[ij]++;    double f1dim(double x); 
     }    void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb, 
                 double *fc, double (*func)(double)); 
  ij=1;    int j; 
  for (i=1; i<=10; i++) {    double xx,xmin,bx,ax; 
    if((Ndum[i]!=0) && (i<=ncovcol)){    double fx,fb,fa;
      Tvaraff[ij]=i;  
      ij++;    double scale=10., axs, xxs, xxss; /* Scale added for infinity */
    }   
  }    ncom=n; 
      pcom=vector(1,n); 
     cptcoveff=ij-1;    xicom=vector(1,n); 
 }    nrfunc=func; 
     for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
 /*********** Health Expectancies ****************/      pcom[j]=p[j]; 
       xicom[j]=xi[j]; 
 void evsij(char fileres[], double ***eij, double x[], int nlstate, int stepm, int bage, int fage, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij, int estepm,double delti[],double **matcov )    } 
   
 {    axs=0.0;
   /* Health expectancies */    xxss=1; /* 1 and using scale */
   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm, k, cptj;    xxs=1;
   double age, agelim, hf;    do{
   double ***p3mat,***varhe;      ax=0.;
   double **dnewm,**doldm;      xx= xxs;
   double *xp;      mnbrak(&ax,&xx,&bx,&fa,&fx,&fb,f1dim);  /* Outputs: xtx[j]=pcom[j]+(*xx)*xicom[j]; fx=f(xtx[j]) */
   double **gp, **gm;      /* brackets with inputs ax=0 and xx=1, but points, pcom=p, and directions values, xicom=xi, are sent via f1dim(x) */
   double ***gradg, ***trgradg;      /* xt[x,j]=pcom[j]+x*xicom[j]  f(ax) = f(xt(a,j=1,n)) = f(p(j) + 0 * xi(j)) and  f(xx) = f(xt(x, j=1,n)) = f(p(j) + 1 * xi(j))   */
   int theta;      /* Outputs: fa=f(p(j)) and fx=f(p(j) + xxs * xi(j) ) and f(bx)= f(p(j)+ bx* xi(j)) */
       /* Given input ax=axs and xx=xxs, xx might be too far from ax to get a finite f(xx) */
   varhe=ma3x(1,nlstate*2,1,nlstate*2,(int) bage, (int) fage);      /* Searches on line, outputs (ax, xx, bx) such that fx < min(fa and fb) */
   xp=vector(1,npar);      /* Find a bracket a,x,b in direction n=xi ie xicom, order may change. Scale is [0:xxs*xi[j]] et non plus  [0:xi[j]]*/
   dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate*2,1,npar);      if (fx != fx){
   doldm=matrix(1,nlstate*2,1,nlstate*2);          xxs=xxs/scale; /* Trying a smaller xx, closer to initial ax=0 */
            printf("\nLinmin NAN : input [axs=%lf:xxs=%lf], mnbrak outputs fx=%lf <(fb=%lf and fa=%lf) with xx=%lf in [ax=%lf:bx=%lf] \n",  axs, xxs, fx,fb, fa, xx, ax, bx);
   fprintf(ficreseij,"# Health expectancies\n");      }
   fprintf(ficreseij,"# Age");    }while(fx != fx);
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)  
     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)    *fret=brent(ax,xx,bx,f1dim,TOL,&xmin); /* Giving a bracketting triplet (ax, xx, bx), find a minimum, xmin, according to f1dim, *fret(xmin),*/
       fprintf(ficreseij," %1d-%1d (SE)",i,j);    /* fa = f(p[j] + ax * xi[j]), fx = f(p[j] + xx * xi[j]), fb = f(p[j] + bx * xi[j]) */
   fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");    /* fmin = f(p[j] + xmin * xi[j]) */
     /* P+lambda n in that direction (lambdamin), with TOL between abscisses */
   if(estepm < stepm){    /* f1dim(xmin): for (j=1;j<=ncom;j++) xt[j]=pcom[j]+xmin*xicom[j]; */
     printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);  #ifdef DEBUG
   }    printf("retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);
   else  hstepm=estepm;      fprintf(ficlog,"retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);
   /* We compute the life expectancy from trapezoids spaced every estepm months  #endif
    * This is mainly to measure the difference between two models: for example    printf("linmin end ");
    * if stepm=24 months pijx are given only every 2 years and by summing them    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
    * we are calculating an estimate of the Life Expectancy assuming a linear      /* printf(" before xi[%d]=%12.8f", j,xi[j]); */
    * progression inbetween and thus overestimating or underestimating according      xi[j] *= xmin; /* xi rescaled by xmin: if xmin=-1.237 and xi=(1,0,...,0) xi=(-1.237,0,...,0) */
    * to the curvature of the survival function. If, for the same date, we      if(xxs <1.0)
    * estimate the model with stepm=1 month, we can keep estepm to 24 months        printf(" after xi[%d]=%12.8f, xmin=%12.8f, ax=%12.8f, xx=%12.8f, bx=%12.8f, xxs=%12.8f", j,xi[j], xmin, ax, xx, bx,xxs );
    * to compare the new estimate of Life expectancy with the same linear      p[j] += xi[j]; /* Parameters values are updated accordingly */
    * hypothesis. A more precise result, taking into account a more precise    } 
    * curvature will be obtained if estepm is as small as stepm. */    printf("\n");
     printf("Comparing last *frec(xmin)=%12.8f from Brent and frec(0.)=%12.8f \n", (*func)(p));
   /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */    free_vector(xicom,1,n); 
   /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm.    free_vector(pcom,1,n); 
      nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim  } 
      nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin.  
      Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size  
      and note for a fixed period like estepm months */  /*************** powell ************************/
   /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the  /*
      survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it  Minimization of a function func of n variables. Input consists of an initial starting point
      means that if the survival funtion is printed only each two years of age and if  p[1..n] ; an initial matrix xi[1..n][1..n] , whose columns contain the initial set of di-
      you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same  rections (usually the n unit vectors); and ftol , the fractional tolerance in the function value
      results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.  such that failure to decrease by more than this amount on one iteration signals doneness. On
   */  output, p is set to the best point found, xi is the then-current direction set, fret is the returned
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */  function value at p , and iter is the number of iterations taken. The routine linmin is used.
    */
   agelim=AGESUP;  void powell(double p[], double **xi, int n, double ftol, int *iter, double *fret, 
   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */              double (*func)(double [])) 
     /* nhstepm age range expressed in number of stepm */  { 
     nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm);    void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret, 
     /* Typically if 20 years nstepm = 20*12/6=40 stepm */                double (*func)(double [])); 
     /* if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;*/    int i,ibig,j; 
     nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */    double del,t,*pt,*ptt,*xit;
     p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);    double directest;
     gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate*2);    double fp,fptt;
     gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*2);    double *xits;
     gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*2);    int niterf, itmp;
   
     /* Computed by stepm unit matrices, product of hstepm matrices, stored    pt=vector(1,n); 
        in an array of nhstepm length: nhstepm=10, hstepm=4, stepm=6 months */    ptt=vector(1,n); 
     hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm, savm, ij);      xit=vector(1,n); 
      xits=vector(1,n); 
     *fret=(*func)(p); 
     hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) pt[j]=p[j]; 
       rcurr_time = time(NULL);  
     /* Computing Variances of health expectancies */    for (*iter=1;;++(*iter)) { 
       fp=(*fret); /* From former iteration or initial value */
      for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){      ibig=0; 
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){      del=0.0; 
         xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);      rlast_time=rcurr_time;
       }      /* (void) gettimeofday(&curr_time,&tzp); */
       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);        rcurr_time = time(NULL);  
        curr_time = *localtime(&rcurr_time);
       cptj=0;      printf("\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f %ld sec. %ld sec.",*iter,*fret, rcurr_time-rlast_time, rcurr_time-rstart_time);fflush(stdout);
       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){      fprintf(ficlog,"\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f %ld sec. %ld sec.",*iter,*fret,rcurr_time-rlast_time, rcurr_time-rstart_time); fflush(ficlog);
         for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++){  /*     fprintf(ficrespow,"%d %.12f %ld",*iter,*fret,curr_time.tm_sec-start_time.tm_sec); */
           cptj=cptj+1;     for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {
           for(h=0, gp[h][cptj]=0.; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){        printf(" %d %.12f",i, p[i]);
             gp[h][cptj] = (p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.;        fprintf(ficlog," %d %.12lf",i, p[i]);
           }        fprintf(ficrespow," %.12lf", p[i]);
         }      }
       }      printf("\n");
            fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
            fprintf(ficrespow,"\n");fflush(ficrespow);
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)      if(*iter <=3){
         xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);        tml = *localtime(&rcurr_time);
       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);          strcpy(strcurr,asctime(&tml));
              rforecast_time=rcurr_time; 
       cptj=0;        itmp = strlen(strcurr);
       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){        if(strcurr[itmp-1]=='\n')  /* Windows outputs with a new line */
         for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++){          strcurr[itmp-1]='\0';
           cptj=cptj+1;        printf("\nConsidering the time needed for the last iteration #%d: %ld seconds,\n",*iter,rcurr_time-rlast_time);
           for(h=0, gm[h][cptj]=0.; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){        fprintf(ficlog,"\nConsidering the time needed for this last iteration #%d: %ld seconds,\n",*iter,rcurr_time-rlast_time);
             gm[h][cptj] = (p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.;        for(niterf=10;niterf<=30;niterf+=10){
           }          rforecast_time=rcurr_time+(niterf-*iter)*(rcurr_time-rlast_time);
         }          forecast_time = *localtime(&rforecast_time);
       }          strcpy(strfor,asctime(&forecast_time));
       for(j=1; j<= nlstate*2; j++)          itmp = strlen(strfor);
         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){          if(strfor[itmp-1]=='\n')
           gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];          strfor[itmp-1]='\0';
         }          printf("   - if your program needs %d iterations to converge, convergence will be \n   reached in %s i.e.\n   on %s (current time is %s);\n",niterf, asc_diff_time(rforecast_time-rcurr_time,tmpout),strfor,strcurr);
      }          fprintf(ficlog,"   - if your program needs %d iterations to converge, convergence will be \n   reached in %s i.e.\n   on %s (current time is %s);\n",niterf, asc_diff_time(rforecast_time-rcurr_time,tmpout),strfor,strcurr);
            }
 /* End theta */      }
       for (i=1;i<=n;i++) { /* For each direction i */
      trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*2,1,npar);        for (j=1;j<=n;j++) xit[j]=xi[j][i]; /* Directions stored from previous iteration with previous scales */
         fptt=(*fret); 
      for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++)  #ifdef DEBUG
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate*2;j++)            printf("fret=%lf, %lf, %lf \n", *fret, *fret, *fret);
         for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)            fprintf(ficlog, "fret=%lf, %lf, %lf \n", *fret, *fret, *fret);
           trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];  #endif
                  printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout); /* print direction (parameter) i */
         fprintf(ficlog,"%d",i);fflush(ficlog);
      for(i=1;i<=nlstate*2;i++)        linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func); /* Point p[n]. xit[n] has been loaded for direction i as input.*/
       for(j=1;j<=nlstate*2;j++)                                      /* Outputs are fret(new point p) p is updated and xit rescaled */
         varhe[i][j][(int)age] =0.;        if (fabs(fptt-(*fret)) > del) { /* We are keeping the max gain on each of the n directions */
           /* because that direction will be replaced unless the gain del is small */
      printf("%d|",(int)age);fflush(stdout);          /* in comparison with the 'probable' gain, mu^2, with the last average direction. */
      for(h=0;h<=nhstepm-1;h++){          /* Unless the n directions are conjugate some gain in the determinant may be obtained */
       for(k=0;k<=nhstepm-1;k++){          /* with the new direction. */
         matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate*2,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);          del=fabs(fptt-(*fret)); 
         matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate*2,1,npar,1,nlstate*2,gradg[k]);          ibig=i; 
         for(i=1;i<=nlstate*2;i++)        } 
           for(j=1;j<=nlstate*2;j++)  #ifdef DEBUG
             varhe[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j]*hf*hf;        printf("%d %.12e",i,(*fret));
       }        fprintf(ficlog,"%d %.12e",i,(*fret));
     }        for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
           xits[j]=FMAX(fabs(p[j]-pt[j]),1.e-5);
                printf(" x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);
     /* Computing expectancies */          fprintf(ficlog," x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)        }
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)        for(j=1;j<=n;j++) {
         for (h=0, eij[i][j][(int)age]=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){          printf(" p(%d)=%.12e",j,p[j]);
           eij[i][j][(int)age] += (p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.0*hf;          fprintf(ficlog," p(%d)=%.12e",j,p[j]);
                  }
 /* if((int)age==70)printf("i=%2d,j=%2d,h=%2d,age=%3d,%9.4f,%9.4f,%9.4f\n",i,j,h,(int)age,p3mat[i][j][h],hf,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/        printf("\n");
         fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
         }  #endif
       } /* end loop on each direction i */
     fprintf(ficreseij,"%3.0f",age );      /* Convergence test will use last linmin estimation (fret) and compare former iteration (fp) */ 
     cptj=0;      /* But p and xit have been updated at the end of linmin, *fret corresponds to new p, xit  */
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)      /* New value of last point Pn is not computed, P(n-1) */
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){      if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret))) { /* Did we reach enough precision? */
         cptj++;        /* We could compare with a chi^2. chisquare(0.95,ddl=1)=3.84 */
         fprintf(ficreseij," %9.4f (%.4f)", eij[i][j][(int)age], sqrt(varhe[cptj][cptj][(int)age]) );        /* By adding age*age in a model, the new -2LL should be lower and the difference follows a */
       }        /* a chisquare statistics with 1 degree. To be significant at the 95% level, it should have */
     fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");        /* decreased of more than 3.84  */
            /* By adding age*age and V1*age the gain (-2LL) should be more than 5.99 (ddl=2) */
     free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*2);        /* By using V1+V2+V3, the gain should be  7.82, compared with basic 1+age. */
     free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*2);        /* By adding 10 parameters more the gain should be 18.31 */
     free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate*2);  
     free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*2,1,npar);        /* Starting the program with initial values given by a former maximization will simply change */
     free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);        /* the scales of the directions and the directions, because the are reset to canonical directions */
   }        /* Thus the first calls to linmin will give new points and better maximizations until fp-(*fret) is */
   free_vector(xp,1,npar);        /* under the tolerance value. If the tolerance is very small 1.e-9, it could last long.  */
   free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate*2,1,npar);  #ifdef DEBUG
   free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate*2,1,nlstate*2);        int k[2],l;
   free_ma3x(varhe,1,nlstate*2,1,nlstate*2,(int) bage, (int)fage);        k[0]=1;
 }        k[1]=-1;
         printf("Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));
 /************ Variance ******************/        fprintf(ficlog,"Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));
 void varevsij(char fileres[], double ***vareij, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij, int estepm)        for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
 {          printf(" %.12e",p[j]);
   /* Variance of health expectancies */          fprintf(ficlog," %.12e",p[j]);
   /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double ** savm,double ftolpl);*/        }
   double **newm;        printf("\n");
   double **dnewm,**doldm;        fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm ;        for(l=0;l<=1;l++) {
   int k, cptcode;          for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
   double *xp;            ptt[j]=p[j]+(p[j]-pt[j])*k[l];
   double **gp, **gm;            printf("l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);
   double ***gradg, ***trgradg;            fprintf(ficlog,"l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);
   double ***p3mat;          }
   double age,agelim, hf;          printf("func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));
   int theta;          fprintf(ficlog,"func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));
         }
   fprintf(ficresvij,"# Variance and covariance of health expectancies e.j \n#  (weighted average of eij where weights are the stable prevalence in health states i\n");  #endif
   fprintf(ficresvij,"# Age");  
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)  
     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)        free_vector(xit,1,n); 
       fprintf(ficresvij," Cov(e%1d, e%1d)",i,j);        free_vector(xits,1,n); 
   fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");        free_vector(ptt,1,n); 
         free_vector(pt,1,n); 
   xp=vector(1,npar);        return; 
   dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);      } 
   doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);      if (*iter == ITMAX) nrerror("powell exceeding maximum iterations."); 
        for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { /* Computes the extrapolated point P_0 + 2 (P_n-P_0) */
   if(estepm < stepm){        ptt[j]=2.0*p[j]-pt[j]; 
     printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);        xit[j]=p[j]-pt[j]; 
   }        pt[j]=p[j]; 
   else  hstepm=estepm;        } 
   /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */      fptt=(*func)(ptt); /* f_3 */
   /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm.      if (fptt < fp) { /* If extrapolated point is better, decide if we keep that new direction or not */
      nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim        /* (x1 f1=fp), (x2 f2=*fret), (x3 f3=fptt), (xm fm) */
      nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin.        /* From x1 (P0) distance of x2 is at h and x3 is 2h */
      Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size        /* Let f"(x2) be the 2nd derivative equal everywhere.  */
      and note for a fixed period like k years */        /* Then the parabolic through (x1,f1), (x2,f2) and (x3,f3) */
   /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the        /* will reach at f3 = fm + h^2/2 f"m  ; f" = (f1 -2f2 +f3 ) / h**2 */
      survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it        /* Conditional for using this new direction is that mu^2 = (f1-2f2+f3)^2 /2 < del */
      means that if the survival funtion is printed only each two years of age and if        /* t=2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del)-del*SQR(fp-fptt); */
      you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same  #ifdef NRCORIGINAL
      results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.        t=2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del)- del*SQR(fp-fptt); /* Original Numerical Recipes in C*/
   */  #else
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */        t=2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del); /* Intel compiler doesn't work on one line; bug reported */
   agelim = AGESUP;        t= t- del*SQR(fp-fptt);
   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */  #endif
     nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */        directest = fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt - 2.0 * del; /* If del was big enough we change it for a new direction */
     nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */  #ifdef DEBUG
     p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);        printf("t1= %.12lf, t2= %.12lf, t=%.12lf  directest=%.12lf\n", 2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del),del*SQR(fp-fptt),t,directest);
     gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);        fprintf(ficlog,"t1= %.12lf, t2= %.12lf, t=%.12lf directest=%.12lf\n", 2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del),del*SQR(fp-fptt),t,directest);
     gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);        printf("t3= %.12lf, t4= %.12lf, t3*= %.12lf, t4*= %.12lf\n",SQR(fp-(*fret)-del),SQR(fp-fptt),
     gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);               (fp-(*fret)-del)*(fp-(*fret)-del),(fp-fptt)*(fp-fptt));
         fprintf(ficlog,"t3= %.12lf, t4= %.12lf, t3*= %.12lf, t4*= %.12lf\n",SQR(fp-(*fret)-del),SQR(fp-fptt),
     for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){               (fp-(*fret)-del)*(fp-(*fret)-del),(fp-fptt)*(fp-fptt));
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */        printf("tt= %.12lf, t=%.12lf\n",2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*(fp-(*fret)-del)*(fp-(*fret)-del)-del*(fp-fptt)*(fp-fptt),t);
         xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);        fprintf(ficlog, "tt= %.12lf, t=%.12lf\n",2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*(fp-(*fret)-del)*(fp-(*fret)-del)-del*(fp-fptt)*(fp-fptt),t);
       }  #endif
       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);    #ifdef POWELLORIGINAL
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);        if (t < 0.0) { /* Then we use it for new direction */
   #else
       if (popbased==1) {        if (directest*t < 0.0) { /* Contradiction between both tests */
         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)        printf("directest= %.12lf, t= %.12lf, f1= %.12lf,f2= %.12lf,f3= %.12lf, del= %.12lf\n",directest, t, fp,(*fret),fptt,del);
           prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];        printf("f1-2f2+f3= %.12lf, f1-f2-del= %.12lf, f1-f3= %.12lf\n",fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt, fp -(*fret) -del, fp-fptt);
       }        fprintf(ficlog,"directest= %.12lf, t= %.12lf, f1= %.12lf,f2= %.12lf,f3= %.12lf, del= %.12lf\n",directest, t, fp,(*fret),fptt, del);
          fprintf(ficlog,"f1-2f2+f3= %.12lf, f1-f2-del= %.12lf, f1-f3= %.12lf\n",fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt, fp -(*fret) -del, fp-fptt);
       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){      } 
         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){        if (directest < 0.0) { /* Then we use it for new direction */
           for(i=1, gp[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)  #endif
             gp[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];          linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func); /* computes minimum on the extrapolated direction: changes p and rescales xit.*/
         }          for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
       }            xi[j][ibig]=xi[j][n]; /* Replace direction with biggest decrease by last direction n */
                xi[j][n]=xit[j];      /* and this nth direction by the by the average p_0 p_n */
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */          }
         xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);          printf("Gaining to use new average direction of P0 P%d instead of biggest increase direction %d :\n",n,ibig);
       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);            fprintf(ficlog,"Gaining to use new average direction of P0 P%d instead of biggest increase direction %d :\n",n,ibig);
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);  
    #ifdef DEBUG
       if (popbased==1) {          printf("Direction changed  last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);
         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)          fprintf(ficlog,"Direction changed  last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);
           prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];          for(j=1;j<=n;j++){
       }            printf(" %.12e",xit[j]);
             fprintf(ficlog," %.12e",xit[j]);
       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){          }
         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){          printf("\n");
           for(i=1, gm[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)          fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
             gm[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];  #endif
         }        } /* end of t negative */
       }      } /* end if (fptt < fp)  */
     } 
       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++)  } 
         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){  
           gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];  /**** Prevalence limit (stable or period prevalence)  ****************/
         }  
     } /* End theta */  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double x[], double age, double **oldm, double **savm, double ftolpl, int ij)
   {
     trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);    /* Computes the prevalence limit in each live state at age x by left multiplying the unit
        matrix by transitions matrix until convergence is reached */
     for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++)    
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)    int i, ii,j,k;
         for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)    double min, max, maxmin, maxmax,sumnew=0.;
           trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];    /* double **matprod2(); */ /* test */
     double **out, cov[NCOVMAX+1], **pmij();
     hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */    double **newm;
     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)    double agefin, delaymax=50 ; /* Max number of years to converge */
       for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)    
         vareij[i][j][(int)age] =0.;    for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
       for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
     for(h=0;h<=nhstepm;h++){        oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
       for(k=0;k<=nhstepm;k++){      }
         matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);    
         matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg[k]);    cov[1]=1.;
         for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)    
           for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)    /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */
             vareij[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j]*hf*hf;    for(agefin=age-stepm/YEARM; agefin>=age-delaymax; agefin=agefin-stepm/YEARM){
       }      newm=savm;
     }      /* Covariates have to be included here again */
       cov[2]=agefin;
     fprintf(ficresvij,"%.0f ",age );      if(nagesqr==1)
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)        cov[3]= agefin*agefin;;
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){      for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {
         fprintf(ficresvij," %.4f", vareij[i][j][(int)age]);        cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];
       }        /*printf("prevalim ij=%d k=%d Tvar[%d]=%d nbcode=%d cov=%lf codtab[%d][Tvar[%d]]=%d \n",ij,k, k, Tvar[k],nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]],cov[2+k], ij, k, codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]);*/
     fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");      }
     free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);      /*wrong? for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2]; */
     free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);      for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+nagesqr+Tage[k]]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]]*cov[2];
     free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);      for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++) /* Useless */
     free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);        cov[2+nagesqr+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]] * nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];
     free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);      
   } /* End age */      /*printf("ij=%d cptcovprod=%d tvar=%d ", ij, cptcovprod, Tvar[1]);*/
        /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf cov[4]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3],cov[4]);*/
   free_vector(xp,1,npar);      /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3]);*/
   free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);      /* savm=pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate); */
   free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);      /* out=matprod2(newm, pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate),1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm); /\* Bug Valgrind *\/ */
       out=matprod2(newm, pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate),1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm); /* Bug Valgrind */
 }      
       savm=oldm;
 /************ Variance of prevlim ******************/      oldm=newm;
 void varprevlim(char fileres[], double **varpl, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij)      maxmax=0.;
 {      for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++){
   /* Variance of prevalence limit */        min=1.;
   /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double ** savm,double ftolpl);*/        max=0.;
   double **newm;        for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++) {
   double **dnewm,**doldm;          sumnew=0;
   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm;          for(k=1; k<=ndeath; k++) sumnew+=newm[i][nlstate+k];
   int k, cptcode;          prlim[i][j]= newm[i][j]/(1-sumnew);
   double *xp;          /*printf(" prevalim i=%d, j=%d, prmlim[%d][%d]=%f, agefin=%d \n", i, j, i, j, prlim[i][j],(int)agefin);*/
   double *gp, *gm;          max=FMAX(max,prlim[i][j]);
   double **gradg, **trgradg;          min=FMIN(min,prlim[i][j]);
   double age,agelim;        }
   int theta;        maxmin=max-min;
            maxmax=FMAX(maxmax,maxmin);
   fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Standard deviation of prevalence's limit\n");      } /* j loop */
   fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Age");      if(maxmax < ftolpl){
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)        return prlim;
       fprintf(ficresvpl," %1d-%1d",i,i);      }
   fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");    } /* age loop */
     return prlim; /* should not reach here */
   xp=vector(1,npar);  }
   dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);  
   doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);  /*************** transition probabilities ***************/ 
    
   hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every year of age */  double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate )
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */  {
   agelim = AGESUP;    /* According to parameters values stored in x and the covariate's values stored in cov,
   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */       computes the probability to be observed in state j being in state i by appying the
     nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */       model to the ncovmodel covariates (including constant and age).
     if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;       lnpijopii=ln(pij/pii)= aij+bij*age+cij*v1+dij*v2+... = sum_nc=1^ncovmodel xij(nc)*cov[nc]
     nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */       and, according on how parameters are entered, the position of the coefficient xij(nc) of the
     gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);       ncth covariate in the global vector x is given by the formula:
     gp=vector(1,nlstate);       j<i nc+((i-1)*(nlstate+ndeath-1)+j-1)*ncovmodel
     gm=vector(1,nlstate);       j>=i nc + ((i-1)*(nlstate+ndeath-1)+(j-2))*ncovmodel
        Computes ln(pij/pii) (lnpijopii), deduces pij/pii by exponentiation,
     for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){       sums on j different of i to get 1-pii/pii, deduces pii, and then all pij.
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */       Outputs ps[i][j] the probability to be observed in j being in j according to
         xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);       the values of the covariates cov[nc] and corresponding parameter values x[nc+shiftij]
       }    */
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);    double s1, lnpijopii;
       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)    /*double t34;*/
         gp[i] = prlim[i][i];    int i,j, nc, ii, jj;
      
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */      for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
         xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);        for(j=1; j<i;j++){
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);          for (nc=1, lnpijopii=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)            /*lnpijopii += param[i][j][nc]*cov[nc];*/
         gm[i] = prlim[i][i];            lnpijopii += x[nc+((i-1)*(nlstate+ndeath-1)+j-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
   /*       printf("Int j<i s1=%.17e, lnpijopii=%.17e\n",s1,lnpijopii); */
       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)          }
         gradg[theta][i]= (gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];          ps[i][j]=lnpijopii; /* In fact ln(pij/pii) */
     } /* End theta */  /*      printf("s1=%.17e, lnpijopii=%.17e\n",s1,lnpijopii); */
         }
     trgradg =matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);        for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
           for (nc=1, lnpijopii=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)            /*lnpijopii += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-2)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];*/
       for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)            lnpijopii += x[nc + ((i-1)*(nlstate+ndeath-1)+(j-2))*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
         trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];  /*        printf("Int j>i s1=%.17e, lnpijopii=%.17e %lx %lx\n",s1,lnpijopii,s1,lnpijopii); */
           }
     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)          ps[i][j]=lnpijopii; /* In fact ln(pij/pii) */
       varpl[i][(int)age] =0.;        }
     matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);      }
     matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);      
     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)      for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
       varpl[i][(int)age] = doldm[i][i]; /* Covariances are useless */        s1=0;
         for(j=1; j<i; j++){
     fprintf(ficresvpl,"%.0f ",age );          s1+=exp(ps[i][j]); /* In fact sums pij/pii */
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)          /*printf("debug1 %d %d ps=%lf exp(ps)=%lf s1+=%lf\n",i,j,ps[i][j],exp(ps[i][j]),s1); */
       fprintf(ficresvpl," %.5f (%.5f)",prlim[i][i],sqrt(varpl[i][(int)age]));        }
     fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");        for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
     free_vector(gp,1,nlstate);          s1+=exp(ps[i][j]); /* In fact sums pij/pii */
     free_vector(gm,1,nlstate);          /*printf("debug2 %d %d ps=%lf exp(ps)=%lf s1+=%lf\n",i,j,ps[i][j],exp(ps[i][j]),s1); */
     free_matrix(gradg,1,npar,1,nlstate);        }
     free_matrix(trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar);        /* s1= sum_{j<>i} pij/pii=(1-pii)/pii and thus pii is known from s1 */
   } /* End age */        ps[i][i]=1./(s1+1.);
         /* Computing other pijs */
   free_vector(xp,1,npar);        for(j=1; j<i; j++)
   free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);          ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
   free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);        for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)
           ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
 }        /* ps[i][nlstate+1]=1.-s1- ps[i][i];*/ /* Sum should be 1 */
       } /* end i */
 /************ Variance of one-step probabilities  ******************/      
 void varprob(char fileres[], double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, double bage, double fage, int ij, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax)      for(ii=nlstate+1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){
 {        for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
   int i, j, i1, k1, j1, z1;          ps[ii][jj]=0;
   int k=0,l, cptcode;          ps[ii][ii]=1;
   double **dnewm,**doldm;        }
   double *xp;      }
   double *gp, *gm;      
   double **gradg, **trgradg;      
   double age,agelim, cov[NCOVMAX];      /* for(ii=1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){ */
   int theta;      /*   for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){ */
   char fileresprob[FILENAMELENGTH];      /*  printf(" pmij  ps[%d][%d]=%lf ",ii,jj,ps[ii][jj]); */
   char fileresprobcov[FILENAMELENGTH];      /*   } */
   char fileresprobcor[FILENAMELENGTH];      /*   printf("\n "); */
       /* } */
   strcpy(fileresprob,"prob");      /* printf("\n ");printf("%lf ",cov[2]);*/
   strcat(fileresprob,fileres);      /*
   if((ficresprob=fopen(fileresprob,"w"))==NULL) {        for(i=1; i<= npar; i++) printf("%f ",x[i]);
     printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);        goto end;*/
   }      return ps;
   strcpy(fileresprobcov,"probcov");  }
   strcat(fileresprobcov,fileres);  
   if((ficresprobcov=fopen(fileresprobcov,"w"))==NULL) {  /**************** Product of 2 matrices ******************/
     printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);  
   }  double **matprod2(double **out, double **in,int nrl, int nrh, int ncl, int nch, int ncolol, int ncoloh, double **b)
   strcpy(fileresprobcor,"probcor");  {
   strcat(fileresprobcor,fileres);    /* Computes the matrix product of in(1,nrh-nrl+1)(1,nch-ncl+1) times
   if((ficresprobcor=fopen(fileresprobcor,"w"))==NULL) {       b(1,nch-ncl+1)(1,ncoloh-ncolol+1) into out(...) */
     printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);    /* in, b, out are matrice of pointers which should have been initialized 
   }       before: only the contents of out is modified. The function returns
   printf("Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);       a pointer to pointers identical to out */
   printf("Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);    int i, j, k;
   printf("and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);    for(i=nrl; i<= nrh; i++)
        for(k=ncolol; k<=ncoloh; k++){
   fprintf(ficresprob,"#One-step probabilities and stand. devi in ()\n");        out[i][k]=0.;
   fprintf(ficresprob,"# Age");        for(j=ncl; j<=nch; j++)
   fprintf(ficresprobcov,"#One-step probabilities and covariance matrix\n");          out[i][k] +=in[i][j]*b[j][k];
   fprintf(ficresprobcov,"# Age");      }
   fprintf(ficresprobcor,"#One-step probabilities and correlation matrix\n");    return out;
   fprintf(ficresprobcov,"# Age");  }
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)  
     for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){  
       fprintf(ficresprob," p%1d-%1d (SE)",i,j);  /************* Higher Matrix Product ***************/
       fprintf(ficresprobcov," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);  
       fprintf(ficresprobcor," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);  double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstepm, double age, int hstepm, double *x, int nlstate, int stepm, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij )
     }    {
   fprintf(ficresprob,"\n");    /* Computes the transition matrix starting at age 'age' over 
   fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n");       'nhstepm*hstepm*stepm' months (i.e. until
   fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n");       age (in years)  age+nhstepm*hstepm*stepm/12) by multiplying 
   xp=vector(1,npar);       nhstepm*hstepm matrices. 
   dnewm=matrix(1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);       Output is stored in matrix po[i][j][h] for h every 'hstepm' step 
   doldm=matrix(1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));       (typically every 2 years instead of every month which is too big 
         for the memory).
   cov[1]=1;       Model is determined by parameters x and covariates have to be 
   j=cptcoveff;       included manually here. 
   if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}  
   j1=0;       */
   for(k1=1; k1<=1;k1++){  
     for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){    int i, j, d, h, k;
     j1++;    double **out, cov[NCOVMAX+1];
     double **newm;
     if  (cptcovn>0) {    double agexact;
       fprintf(ficresprob, "\n#********** Variable ");  
       fprintf(ficresprobcov, "\n#********** Variable ");    /* Hstepm could be zero and should return the unit matrix */
       fprintf(ficresprobcor, "\n#********** Variable ");    for (i=1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)
       for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprob, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);      for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
       fprintf(ficresprob, "**********\n#");        oldm[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
       for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprobcov, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);        po[i][j][0]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
       fprintf(ficresprobcov, "**********\n#");      }
       for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprobcor, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);    /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */
       fprintf(ficresprobcor, "**********\n#");    for(h=1; h <=nhstepm; h++){
     }      for(d=1; d <=hstepm; d++){
            newm=savm;
       for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){        /* Covariates have to be included here again */
         cov[2]=age;        cov[1]=1.;
         for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {        agexact=age+((h-1)*hstepm + (d-1))*stepm/YEARM;
           cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[j1][Tvar[k]]];        cov[2]=agexact;
         }        if(nagesqr==1)
         for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];          cov[3]= agexact*agexact;
         for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) 
           cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];          cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];
                for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) /* Should start at cptcovn+1 */
         gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,9);          /* cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2]; */
         trgradg=matrix(1,9,1,npar);          cov[2+nagesqr+Tage[k]]=nbcode[Tvar[Tage[k]]][codtab[ij][Tvar[Tage[k]]]]*cov[2];
         gp=vector(1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));        for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++) /* Useless because included in cptcovn */
         gm=vector(1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));          cov[2+nagesqr+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];
      
         for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){  
           for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)        /*printf("hxi cptcov=%d cptcode=%d\n",cptcov,cptcode);*/
             xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);        /*printf("h=%d d=%d age=%f cov=%f\n",h,d,age,cov[2]);*/
                  out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, 
           pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);                     pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
                  savm=oldm;
           k=0;        oldm=newm;
           for(i=1; i<= (nlstate+ndeath); i++){      }
             for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){      for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)
               k=k+1;        for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
               gp[k]=pmmij[i][j];          po[i][j][h]=newm[i][j];
             }          /*if(h==nhstepm) printf("po[%d][%d][%d]=%f ",i,j,h,po[i][j][h]);*/
           }        }
                /*printf("h=%d ",h);*/
           for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)    } /* end h */
             xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);  /*     printf("\n H=%d \n",h); */
        return po;
           pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);  }
           k=0;  
           for(i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath); i++){  #ifdef NLOPT
             for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){    double  myfunc(unsigned n, const double *p1, double *grad, void *pd){
               k=k+1;    double fret;
               gm[k]=pmmij[i][j];    double *xt;
             }    int j;
           }    myfunc_data *d2 = (myfunc_data *) pd;
        /* xt = (p1-1); */
           for(i=1; i<= (nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath); i++)    xt=vector(1,n); 
             gradg[theta][i]=(gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];      for (j=1;j<=n;j++)   xt[j]=p1[j-1]; /* xt[1]=p1[0] */
         }  
     fret=(d2->function)(xt); /*  p xt[1]@8 is fine */
         for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)    /* fret=(*func)(xt); /\*  p xt[1]@8 is fine *\/ */
           for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)    printf("Function = %.12lf ",fret);
             trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) printf(" %d %.8lf", j, xt[j]); 
            printf("\n");
         matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,9,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);   free_vector(xt,1,n);
         matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,9,1,npar,1,9,gradg);    return fret;
          }
         pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate);  #endif
          
         k=0;  /*************** log-likelihood *************/
         for(i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath); i++){  double func( double *x)
           for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){  {
             k=k+1;    int i, ii, j, k, mi, d, kk;
             gm[k]=pmmij[i][j];    double l, ll[NLSTATEMAX+1], cov[NCOVMAX+1];
           }    double **out;
         }    double sw; /* Sum of weights */
          double lli; /* Individual log likelihood */
         /*printf("\n%d ",(int)age);    int s1, s2;
      for (i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath-1);i++){    double bbh, survp;
        printf("%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));    long ipmx;
      }*/    double agexact;
     /*extern weight */
         fprintf(ficresprob,"\n%d ",(int)age);    /* We are differentiating ll according to initial status */
         fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n%d ",(int)age);    /*  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) printf("%f ", x[i]);*/
         fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n%d ",(int)age);    /*for(i=1;i<imx;i++) 
       printf(" %d\n",s[4][i]);
         for (i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath-1);i++)    */
           fprintf(ficresprob,"%12.3e (%12.3e) ",gm[i],sqrt(doldm[i][j]));  
         for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++){    ++countcallfunc;
           fprintf(ficresprobcov,"%12.3e ",gm[i]);  
           fprintf(ficresprobcor,"%12.3e ",gm[i]);    cov[1]=1.;
         }  
         i=0;    for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) ll[k]=0.;
         for (k=1; k<=(nlstate);k++){  
           for (l=1; l<=(nlstate+ndeath);l++){    if(mle==1){
             i=i++;      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
             fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n%d %d-%d",(int)age,k,l);        /* Computes the values of the ncovmodel covariates of the model
             fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n%d %d-%d",(int)age,k,l);           depending if the covariates are fixed or variying (age dependent) and stores them in cov[]
             for (j=1; j<=i;j++){           Then computes with function pmij which return a matrix p[i][j] giving the elementary probability
               fprintf(ficresprobcov," %12.3e",doldm[i][j]);           to be observed in j being in i according to the model.
               fprintf(ficresprobcor," %12.3e",doldm[i][j]/sqrt(doldm[i][i])/sqrt(doldm[j][j]));         */
             }        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++){ /* Simple and product covariates without age* products */
           }            cov[2+nagesqr+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
         }        }
       }        /* In model V2+V1*V4+age*V3+V3*V2 Tvar[1] is V2, Tvar[2=V1*V4] 
     }           is 6, Tvar[3=age*V3] should not be computed because of age Tvar[4=V3*V2] 
     free_vector(gp,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));           has been calculated etc */
     free_vector(gm,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));        for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
     free_matrix(trgradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
     free_matrix(gradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);            for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
   }              oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
   free_vector(xp,1,npar);              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
   fclose(ficresprob);            }
   fclose(ficresprobcov);          for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
   fclose(ficresprobcor);            newm=savm;
 }            agexact=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
             cov[2]=agexact;
             if(nagesqr==1)
 /******************* Printing html file ***********/              cov[3]= agexact*agexact;
 void printinghtml(char fileres[], char title[], char datafile[], int firstpass, \            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
                   int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[],\              cov[Tage[kk]+2+nagesqr]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*agexact; /* Tage[kk] gives the data-covariate associated with age */
                   int imx,int jmin, int jmax, double jmeanint,char optionfile[], \            }
                   char optionfilehtm[],char rfileres[], char optionfilegnuplot[],\            out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
                   char version[], int popforecast, int estepm ,\                         1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
                   double jprev1, double mprev1,double anprev1, \            savm=oldm;
                   double jprev2, double mprev2,double anprev2){            oldm=newm;
   int jj1, k1, i1, cpt;          } /* end mult */
   FILE *fichtm;        
   /*char optionfilehtm[FILENAMELENGTH];*/          /*lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]);*/ /* Original formula */
           /* But now since version 0.9 we anticipate for bias at large stepm.
   strcpy(optionfilehtm,optionfile);           * If stepm is larger than one month (smallest stepm) and if the exact delay 
   strcat(optionfilehtm,".htm");           * (in months) between two waves is not a multiple of stepm, we rounded to 
   if((fichtm=fopen(optionfilehtm,"w"))==NULL)    {           * the nearest (and in case of equal distance, to the lowest) interval but now
     printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtm), exit(0);           * we keep into memory the bias bh[mi][i] and also the previous matrix product
   }           * (i.e to dh[mi][i]-1) saved in 'savm'. Then we inter(extra)polate the
            * probability in order to take into account the bias as a fraction of the way
   fprintf(fichtm,"<body> <font size=\"2\">%s </font> <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n           * from savm to out if bh is negative or even beyond if bh is positive. bh varies
 Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>\n           * -stepm/2 to stepm/2 .
 \n           * For stepm=1 the results are the same as for previous versions of Imach.
 Total number of observations=%d <br>\n           * For stepm > 1 the results are less biased than in previous versions. 
 Interval (in months) between two waves: Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%.2lf<br>\n           */
 <hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
  <ul><li>Parameter files<br>\n          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
  - Copy of the parameter file: <a href=\"o%s\">o%s</a><br>\n          bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm; 
  - Gnuplot file name: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br></ul>\n",version,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt,model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,fileres,fileres,optionfilegnuplot,optionfilegnuplot);          /* bias bh is positive if real duration
            * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
    fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li>Result files (first order: no variance)<br>\n           */
  - Observed prevalence in each state (during the period defined between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf): <a href=\"p%s\">p%s</a> <br>\n          /* lli= (savm[s1][s2]>1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]));*/
  - Estimated transition probabilities over %d (stepm) months: <a href=\"pij%s\">pij%s</a><br>\n          if( s2 > nlstate){ 
  - Stable prevalence in each health state: <a href=\"pl%s\">pl%s</a> <br>\n            /* i.e. if s2 is a death state and if the date of death is known 
  - Life expectancies by age and initial health status (estepm=%2d months):               then the contribution to the likelihood is the probability to 
    <a href=\"e%s\">e%s</a> <br>\n</li>", \               die between last step unit time and current  step unit time, 
   jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,fileres,fileres,stepm,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,estepm,fileres,fileres);               which is also equal to probability to die before dh 
                minus probability to die before dh-stepm . 
  fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li> Result files (second order: variances)<br>\n               In version up to 0.92 likelihood was computed
  - Parameter file with estimated parameters and covariance matrix: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n          as if date of death was unknown. Death was treated as any other
  - Variance of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"prob%s\">prob%s</a> <br>\n          health state: the date of the interview describes the actual state
  - Variance-covariance of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"probcov%s\">probcov%s</a> <br>\n          and not the date of a change in health state. The former idea was
  - Correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"probcor%s\">probcor%s</a> <br>\n          to consider that at each interview the state was recorded
  - Variances and covariances of life expectancies by age and initial health status (estepm=%d months): <a href=\"v%s\">v%s</a><br>\n          (healthy, disable or death) and IMaCh was corrected; but when we
  - Health expectancies with their variances (no covariance): <a href=\"t%s\">t%s</a> <br>\n          introduced the exact date of death then we should have modified
  - Standard deviation of stable prevalences: <a href=\"vpl%s\">vpl%s</a> <br>\n",rfileres,rfileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres, estepm, fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres);          the contribution of an exact death to the likelihood. This new
           contribution is smaller and very dependent of the step unit
  if(popforecast==1) fprintf(fichtm,"\n          stepm. It is no more the probability to die between last interview
  - Prevalences forecasting: <a href=\"f%s\">f%s</a> <br>\n          and month of death but the probability to survive from last
  - Population forecasting (if popforecast=1): <a href=\"pop%s\">pop%s</a> <br>\n          interview up to one month before death multiplied by the
         <br>",fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres);          probability to die within a month. Thanks to Chris
  else          Jackson for correcting this bug.  Former versions increased
    fprintf(fichtm,"\n No population forecast: popforecast = %d (instead of 1) or stepm = %d (instead of 1) or model=%s (instead of .)<br><br></li>\n",popforecast, stepm, model);          mortality artificially. The bad side is that we add another loop
 fprintf(fichtm," <li>Graphs</li><p>");          which slows down the processing. The difference can be up to 10%
           lower mortality.
  m=cptcoveff;            */
  if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}          /* If, at the beginning of the maximization mostly, the
              cumulative probability or probability to be dead is
  jj1=0;             constant (ie = 1) over time d, the difference is equal to
  for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){             0.  out[s1][3] = savm[s1][3]: probability, being at state
    for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){             s1 at precedent wave, to be dead a month before current
      jj1++;             wave is equal to probability, being at state s1 at
      if (cptcovn > 0) {             precedent wave, to be dead at mont of the current
        fprintf(fichtm,"<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">************ Results for covariates");             wave. Then the observed probability (that this person died)
        for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++)             is null according to current estimated parameter. In fact,
          fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtab[jj1][cpt]]);             it should be very low but not zero otherwise the log go to
        fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");             infinity.
      }          */
      /* Pij */  /* #ifdef INFINITYORIGINAL */
      fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i %d (stepm) months before: pe%s%d1.png<br>  /*          lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]); */
 <img src=\"pe%s%d1.png\">",stepm,strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1);      /* #else */
      /* Quasi-incidences */  /*        if ((out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]) < mytinydouble)  */
      fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i %d (stepm) months before but expressed in per year i.e. quasi incidences if stepm is small and probabilities too: pe%s%d2.png<br>  /*          lli=log(mytinydouble); */
 <img src=\"pe%s%d2.png\">",stepm,strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1);  /*        else */
        /* Stable prevalence in each health state */  /*          lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]); */
        for(cpt=1; cpt<nlstate;cpt++){  /* #endif */
          fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Stable prevalence in each health state : p%s%d%d.png<br>              lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
 <img src=\"p%s%d%d.png\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1);  
        }          } else if  (s2==-2) {
     for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {            for (j=1,survp=0. ; j<=nlstate; j++) 
        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Observed and stationary prevalence (with confident              survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
 interval) in state (%d): v%s%d%d.png <br>            /*survp += out[s1][j]; */
 <img src=\"v%s%d%d.png\">",cpt,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1);              lli= log(survp);
      }          }
      for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {          
         fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Health life expectancies by age and initial health state (%d): exp%s%d%d.png <br>          else if  (s2==-4) { 
 <img src=\"exp%s%d%d.png\">",cpt,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1);            for (j=3,survp=0. ; j<=nlstate; j++)  
      }              survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
      fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Total life expectancy by age and            lli= log(survp); 
 health expectancies in states (1) and (2): e%s%d.png<br>          } 
 <img src=\"e%s%d.png\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1);  
 fprintf(fichtm,"\n</body>");          else if  (s2==-5) { 
    }            for (j=1,survp=0. ; j<=2; j++)  
  }              survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
 fclose(fichtm);            lli= log(survp); 
 }          } 
           
 /******************* Gnuplot file **************/          else{
 void printinggnuplot(char fileres[],char optionfilefiname[],char optionfile[],char optionfilegnuplot[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double fage , char pathc[], double p[]){            lli= log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]); /* linear interpolation */
             /*  lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*(savm[s1][s2])):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]));*/ /* linear interpolation */
   int m,cpt,k1,i,k,j,jk,k2,k3,ij,l;          } 
   int ng;          /*lli=(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]);*/
   strcpy(optionfilegnuplot,optionfilefiname);          /*if(lli ==000.0)*/
   strcat(optionfilegnuplot,".gp");          /*printf("bbh= %f lli=%f savm=%f out=%f %d\n",bbh,lli,savm[s1][s2], out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]],i); */
   if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"w"))==NULL) {          ipmx +=1;
     printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot);          sw += weight[i];
   }          ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
           /* if (lli < log(mytinydouble)){ */
 #ifdef windows          /*   printf("Close to inf lli = %.10lf <  %.10lf i= %d mi= %d, s[%d][i]=%d s1=%d s2=%d\n", lli,log(mytinydouble), i, mi,mw[mi][i], s[mw[mi][i]][i], s1,s2); */
     fprintf(ficgp,"cd \"%s\" \n",pathc);          /*   fprintf(ficlog,"Close to inf lli = %.10lf i= %d mi= %d, s[mw[mi][i]][i]=%d\n", lli, i, mi,s[mw[mi][i]][i]); */
 #endif          /* } */
 m=pow(2,cptcoveff);        } /* end of wave */
        } /* end of individual */
  /* 1eme*/    }  else if(mle==2){
   for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
    for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+nagesqr+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
         for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
 #ifdef windows          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"v%s%d%d.png\" \n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);            for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
      fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"vpl%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",ageminpar,fage,fileres,k1-1,k1-1);              oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
 #endif              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
 #ifdef unix            }
 fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"v%s%d%d.png\" \n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);          for(d=0; d<=dh[mi][i]; d++){
 fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nplot [%.f:%.f] \"vpl%s\" u 1:2 \"\%%lf",ageminpar,fage,fileres);            newm=savm;
 #endif            agexact=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
             cov[2]=agexact;
 for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {            if(nagesqr==1)
   if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");              cov[3]= agexact*agexact;
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
 }              cov[Tage[kk]+2+nagesqr]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*agexact;
     fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"Stationary prevalence\" w l 0,\"vpl%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+2*$3) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);            }
     for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {            out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
   if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");                         1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");            savm=oldm;
 }            oldm=newm;
   fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"95\%% CI\" w l 1,\"vpl%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-2*$3) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);          } /* end mult */
      for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {        
   if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
 }            bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm; 
      fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 1,\"p%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d) t\"Observed prevalence \" w l 2",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,2+4*(cpt-1));          lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*(savm[s1][s2])):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* linear interpolation */
 #ifdef unix          ipmx +=1;
 fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\n");          sw += weight[i];
 #endif          ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
    }        } /* end of wave */
   }      } /* end of individual */
   /*2 eme*/    }  else if(mle==3){  /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
       for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
   for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+nagesqr+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"e%s%d.png\" \n",strtok(optionfile, "."),k1);        for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
     fprintf(ficgp,"set ylabel \"Years\" \nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nplot [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,fage);          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
                for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
     for (i=1; i<= nlstate+1 ; i ++) {              oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
       k=2*i;              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
       fprintf(ficgp,"\"t%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);            }
       for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {          for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
   if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");            newm=savm;
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");            agexact=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
 }              cov[2]=agexact;
       if (i== 1) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"TLE\" w l ,");            if(nagesqr==1)
       else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"LE in state (%d)\" w l ,",i-1);              cov[3]= agexact*agexact;
     fprintf(ficgp,"\"t%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-$3*2) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
       for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {              cov[Tage[kk]+2+nagesqr]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*agexact;
         if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");            }
         else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");            out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
 }                           1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
       fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");            savm=oldm;
      fprintf(ficgp,"\"t%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+$3*2) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);            oldm=newm;
       for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {          } /* end mult */
   if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");        
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
 }            s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
       if (i== (nlstate+1)) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0");          bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm; 
       else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");          lli= (savm[s1][s2]>1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
     }          ipmx +=1;
   }          sw += weight[i];
            ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
   /*3eme*/        } /* end of wave */
       } /* end of individual */
   for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {    }else if (mle==4){  /* ml=4 no inter-extrapolation */
     for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
       k=2+nlstate*(2*cpt-2);        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+nagesqr+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"exp%s%d%d.png\" \n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);        for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
       fprintf(ficgp,"set ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d1\" w l",ageminpar,fage,fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,cpt);          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
       /*fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d-2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);            for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
  for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");              oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
 fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
 fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d+2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);            }
  for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");          for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
 fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);            newm=savm;
             agexact=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
 */            cov[2]=agexact;
       for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {            if(nagesqr==1)
         fprintf(ficgp," ,\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k+2*i,cpt,i+1);              cov[3]= agexact*agexact;
             for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
       }              cov[Tage[kk]+2+nagesqr]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*agexact;
     }            }
   }          
              out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
   /* CV preval stat */                         1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {            savm=oldm;
     for (cpt=1; cpt<nlstate ; cpt ++) {            oldm=newm;
       k=3;          } /* end mult */
       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"p%s%d%d.png\" \n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);        
       fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"pij%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",ageminpar,agemaxpar,fileres,k1,k+cpt+1,k+1);          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
           s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
       for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++)          if( s2 > nlstate){ 
         fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+i+1);            lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
       fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l",cpt,cpt+1);          }else{
                  lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]); /* Original formula */
       l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;          }
       fprintf(ficgp,",\"pij%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",fileres,k1,l+cpt+1,l+1);          ipmx +=1;
       for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {          sw += weight[i];
         l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;          ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
         fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",l+i+1);  /*      printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
       }        } /* end of wave */
       fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l\n",cpt+1,cpt+1);        } /* end of individual */
     }    }else{  /* ml=5 no inter-extrapolation no jackson =0.8a */
   }        for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
          for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+nagesqr+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
   /* proba elementaires */        for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
    for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
     for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){            for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
       if (k != i) {              oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
         for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
                    }
           fprintf(ficgp,"p%d=%f ",jk,p[jk]);          for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
           jk++;            newm=savm;
           fprintf(ficgp,"\n");            agexact=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
         }            cov[2]=agexact;
       }            if(nagesqr==1)
     }              cov[3]= agexact*agexact;
    }            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
               cov[Tage[kk]+2+nagesqr]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*agexact;
    for(ng=1; ng<=2;ng++){ /* Number of graphics: first is probabilities second is incidence per year*/            }
      for(jk=1; jk <=m; jk++) {          
        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"pe%s%d%d.png\" \n",strtok(optionfile, "."),jk,ng);            out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
        if (ng==2)                         1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ylabel \"Quasi-incidence per year\"\n");            savm=oldm;
        else            oldm=newm;
          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset title \"Probability\"\n");          } /* end mult */
        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nset log y\nplot  [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,agemaxpar);        
        i=1;          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
        for(k2=1; k2<=nlstate; k2++) {          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
          k3=i;          lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]); /* Original formula */
          for(k=1; k<=(nlstate+ndeath); k++) {          ipmx +=1;
            if (k != k2){          sw += weight[i];
              if(ng==2)          ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
                fprintf(ficgp," %f*exp(p%d+p%d*x",YEARM/stepm,i,i+1);          /*printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]);*/
              else        } /* end of wave */
                fprintf(ficgp," exp(p%d+p%d*x",i,i+1);      } /* end of individual */
              ij=1;    } /* End of if */
              for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++) {    for(k=1,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++) l += ll[k];
                if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {    /* printf("l1=%f l2=%f ",ll[1],ll[2]); */
                  fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);    l= l*ipmx/sw; /* To get the same order of magnitude as if weight=1 for every body */
                  ij++;    return -l;
                }  }
                else  
                  fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);  /*************** log-likelihood *************/
              }  double funcone( double *x)
              fprintf(ficgp,")/(1");  {
                  /* Same as likeli but slower because of a lot of printf and if */
              for(k1=1; k1 <=nlstate; k1++){      int i, ii, j, k, mi, d, kk;
                fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1);    double l, ll[NLSTATEMAX+1], cov[NCOVMAX+1];
                ij=1;    double **out;
                for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++){    double lli; /* Individual log likelihood */
                  if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {    double llt;
                    fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);    int s1, s2;
                    ij++;    double bbh, survp;
                  }    double agexact;
                  else    /*extern weight */
                    fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);    /* We are differentiating ll according to initial status */
                }    /*  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) printf("%f ", x[i]);*/
                fprintf(ficgp,")");    /*for(i=1;i<imx;i++) 
              }      printf(" %d\n",s[4][i]);
              fprintf(ficgp,") t \"p%d%d\" ", k2,k);    */
              if ((k+k2)!= (nlstate*2+ndeath)) fprintf(ficgp,",");    cov[1]=1.;
              i=i+ncovmodel;  
            }    for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) ll[k]=0.;
          }  
        }    for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
      }      for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+nagesqr+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
    }      for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
    fclose(ficgp);        for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
 }  /* end gnuplot */          for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
             oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
             savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
 /*************** Moving average **************/          }
 void movingaverage(double agedeb, double fage,double ageminpar, double ***mobaverage){        for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
           newm=savm;
   int i, cpt, cptcod;          agexact=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
     for (agedeb=ageminpar; agedeb<=fage; agedeb++)          cov[2]=agexact;
       for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)          if(nagesqr==1)
         for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++)            cov[3]= agexact*agexact;
           mobaverage[(int)agedeb][i][cptcod]=0.;          for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
                cov[Tage[kk]+2+nagesqr]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*agexact;
     for (agedeb=ageminpar+4; agedeb<=fage; agedeb++){          }
       for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){  
         for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){          /* savm=pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate); */
           for (cpt=0;cpt<=4;cpt++){          out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
             mobaverage[(int)agedeb-2][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)agedeb-2][i][cptcod]+probs[(int)agedeb-cpt][i][cptcod];                       1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
           }          /* out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, */
           mobaverage[(int)agedeb-2][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)agedeb-2][i][cptcod]/5;          /*           1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate)); */
         }          savm=oldm;
       }          oldm=newm;
     }        } /* end mult */
            
 }        s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
         s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
         bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm; 
 /************** Forecasting ******************/        /* bias is positive if real duration
 prevforecast(char fileres[], double anproj1,double mproj1,double jproj1,double ageminpar, double agemax,double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double agedeb, double fage, int popforecast, char popfile[], double anproj2,double p[], int i2){         * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
           */
   int cpt, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j,k,c, cptcod, i,h;        if( s2 > nlstate && (mle <5) ){  /* Jackson */
   int *popage;          lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
   double calagedate, agelim, kk1, kk2, yp,yp1,yp2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean;        } else if  (s2==-2) {
   double *popeffectif,*popcount;          for (j=1,survp=0. ; j<=nlstate; j++) 
   double ***p3mat;            survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
   char fileresf[FILENAMELENGTH];          lli= log(survp);
         }else if (mle==1){
  agelim=AGESUP;          lli= log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]); /* linear interpolation */
 calagedate=(anproj1+mproj1/12.+jproj1/365.-dateintmean)*YEARM;        } else if(mle==2){
           lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* linear interpolation */
   prevalence(ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,dateprev1,dateprev2, calagedate);        } else if(mle==3){  /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
            lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
          } else if (mle==4){  /* mle=4 no inter-extrapolation */
   strcpy(fileresf,"f");          lli=log(out[s1][s2]); /* Original formula */
   strcat(fileresf,fileres);        } else{  /* mle=0 back to 1 */
   if((ficresf=fopen(fileresf,"w"))==NULL) {          lli= log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]); /* linear interpolation */
     printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);          /*lli=log(out[s1][s2]); */ /* Original formula */
   }        } /* End of if */
   printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);        ipmx +=1;
         sw += weight[i];
   if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;        ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
         /*printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
   if (mobilav==1) {        if(globpr){
     mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);          fprintf(ficresilk,"%9ld %6d %2d %2d %1d %1d %3d %11.6f %8.4f\
     movingaverage(agedeb, fage, ageminpar, mobaverage);   %11.6f %11.6f %11.6f ", \
   }                  num[i],i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],
                   2*weight[i]*lli,out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]);
   stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;          for(k=1,llt=0.,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++){
   if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;            llt +=ll[k]*gipmx/gsw;
              fprintf(ficresilk," %10.6f",-ll[k]*gipmx/gsw);
   agelim=AGESUP;          }
            fprintf(ficresilk," %10.6f\n", -llt);
   hstepm=1;        }
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm;      } /* end of wave */
   yp1=modf(dateintmean,&yp);    } /* end of individual */
   anprojmean=yp;    for(k=1,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++) l += ll[k];
   yp2=modf((yp1*12),&yp);    /* printf("l1=%f l2=%f ",ll[1],ll[2]); */
   mprojmean=yp;    l= l*ipmx/sw; /* To get the same order of magnitude as if weight=1 for every body */
   yp1=modf((yp2*30.5),&yp);    if(globpr==0){ /* First time we count the contributions and weights */
   jprojmean=yp;      gipmx=ipmx;
   if(jprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;      gsw=sw;
   if(mprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;    }
      return -l;
   fprintf(ficresf,"# Estimated date of observed prevalence: %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean);  }
    
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i2;cptcov++){  
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){  /*************** function likelione ***********/
       k=k+1;  void likelione(FILE *ficres,double p[], int npar, int nlstate, int *globpri, long *ipmx, double *sw, double *fretone, double (*funcone)(double []))
       fprintf(ficresf,"\n#******");  {
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {    /* This routine should help understanding what is done with 
         fprintf(ficresf," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);       the selection of individuals/waves and
       }       to check the exact contribution to the likelihood.
       fprintf(ficresf,"******\n");       Plotting could be done.
       fprintf(ficresf,"# StartingAge FinalAge");     */
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) fprintf(ficresf," P.%d",j);    int k;
        
          if(*globpri !=0){ /* Just counts and sums, no printings */
       for (cpt=0; cpt<=(anproj2-anproj1);cpt++) {      strcpy(fileresilk,"ilk"); 
         fprintf(ficresf,"\n");      strcat(fileresilk,fileres);
         fprintf(ficresf,"\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1+cpt);        if((ficresilk=fopen(fileresilk,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresilk);
         for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedate %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedate %12)/12.); agedeb--){        fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresilk);
           nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm);      }
           nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;      fprintf(ficresilk, "#individual(line's_record) s1 s2 wave# effective_wave# number_of_matrices_product pij weight -2ln(pij)*weight 0pij_x 0pij_(x-stepm) cumulating_loglikeli_by_health_state(reweighted=-2ll*weightXnumber_of_contribs/sum_of_weights) and_total\n");
                fprintf(ficresilk, "#num_i i s1 s2 mi mw dh likeli weight 2wlli out sav ");
           p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);      /*  i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],2*weight[i]*lli,out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;      for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) 
           hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);          fprintf(ficresilk," -2*gipw/gsw*weight*ll[%d]++",k);
              fprintf(ficresilk," -2*gipw/gsw*weight*ll(total)\n");
           for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){    }
             if (h==(int) (calagedate+YEARM*cpt)) {  
               fprintf(ficresf,"\n %.f %.f ",anproj1+cpt,agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);    *fretone=(*funcone)(p);
             }    if(*globpri !=0){
             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {      fclose(ficresilk);
               kk1=0.;kk2=0;      fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>File of contributions to the likelihood: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n",subdirf(fileresilk),subdirf(fileresilk));
               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {                    fflush(fichtm); 
                 if (mobilav==1)    } 
                   kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];    return;
                 else {  }
                   kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agedeb+1)][i][cptcod];  
                 }  
                  /*********** Maximum Likelihood Estimation ***************/
               }  
               if (h==(int)(calagedate+12*cpt)){  void mlikeli(FILE *ficres,double p[], int npar, int ncovmodel, int nlstate, double ftol, double (*func)(double []))
                 fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", kk1);  {
                            int i,j, iter=0;
               }    double **xi;
             }    double fret;
           }    double fretone; /* Only one call to likelihood */
           free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);    /*  char filerespow[FILENAMELENGTH];*/
         }  
       }  #ifdef NLOPT
     }    int creturn;
   }    nlopt_opt opt;
            /* double lb[9] = { -HUGE_VAL, -HUGE_VAL, -HUGE_VAL, -HUGE_VAL, -HUGE_VAL, -HUGE_VAL, -HUGE_VAL, -HUGE_VAL, -HUGE_VAL }; /\* lower bounds *\/ */
   if (mobilav==1) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);    double *lb;
     double minf; /* the minimum objective value, upon return */
   fclose(ficresf);    double * p1; /* Shifted parameters from 0 instead of 1 */
 }    myfunc_data dinst, *d = &dinst;
 /************** Forecasting ******************/  #endif
 populforecast(char fileres[], double anpyram,double mpyram,double jpyram,double ageminpar, double agemax,double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double agedeb, double fage, int popforecast, char popfile[], double anpyram1,double p[], int i2){  
    
   int cpt, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j,k,c, cptcod, i,h;    xi=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
   int *popage;    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
   double calagedate, agelim, kk1, kk2, yp,yp1,yp2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean;      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)
   double *popeffectif,*popcount;        xi[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
   double ***p3mat,***tabpop,***tabpopprev;    printf("Powell\n");  fprintf(ficlog,"Powell\n");
   char filerespop[FILENAMELENGTH];    strcpy(filerespow,"pow"); 
     strcat(filerespow,fileres);
   tabpop= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);    if((ficrespow=fopen(filerespow,"w"))==NULL) {
   tabpopprev= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
   agelim=AGESUP;      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
   calagedate=(anpyram+mpyram/12.+jpyram/365.-dateintmean)*YEARM;    }
      fprintf(ficrespow,"# Powell\n# iter -2*LL");
   prevalence(ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,dateprev1,dateprev2, calagedate);    for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
        for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
          if(j!=i)fprintf(ficrespow," p%1d%1d",i,j);
   strcpy(filerespop,"pop");    fprintf(ficrespow,"\n");
   strcat(filerespop,fileres);  #ifdef POWELL
   if((ficrespop=fopen(filerespop,"w"))==NULL) {    powell(p,xi,npar,ftol,&iter,&fret,func);
     printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", filerespop);  #endif
   }  
   printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", filerespop);  #ifdef NLOPT
   #ifdef NEWUOA
   if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;    opt = nlopt_create(NLOPT_LN_NEWUOA,npar);
   #else
   if (mobilav==1) {    opt = nlopt_create(NLOPT_LN_BOBYQA,npar);
     mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);  #endif
     movingaverage(agedeb, fage, ageminpar, mobaverage);    lb=vector(0,npar-1);
   }    for (i=0;i<npar;i++) lb[i]= -HUGE_VAL;
     nlopt_set_lower_bounds(opt, lb);
   stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;    nlopt_set_initial_step1(opt, 0.1);
   if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;    
      p1= (p+1); /*  p *(p+1)@8 and p *(p1)@8 are equal p1[0]=p[1] */
   agelim=AGESUP;    d->function = func;
      printf(" Func %.12lf \n",myfunc(npar,p1,NULL,d));
   hstepm=1;    nlopt_set_min_objective(opt, myfunc, d);
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm;    nlopt_set_xtol_rel(opt, ftol);
      if ((creturn=nlopt_optimize(opt, p1, &minf)) < 0) {
   if (popforecast==1) {      printf("nlopt failed! %d\n",creturn); 
     if((ficpop=fopen(popfile,"r"))==NULL) {    }
       printf("Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);exit(0);    else {
     }      printf("found minimum after %d evaluations (NLOPT=%d)\n", countcallfunc ,NLOPT);
     popage=ivector(0,AGESUP);      printf("found minimum at f(%g,%g) = %0.10g\n", p[0], p[1], minf);
     popeffectif=vector(0,AGESUP);      iter=1; /* not equal */
     popcount=vector(0,AGESUP);    }
        nlopt_destroy(opt);
     i=1;    #endif
     while ((c=fscanf(ficpop,"%d %lf\n",&popage[i],&popcount[i])) != EOF) i=i+1;    free_matrix(xi,1,npar,1,npar);
        fclose(ficrespow);
     imx=i;    printf("#Number of iterations & function calls = %d & %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter, countcallfunc,func(p));
     for (i=1; i<imx;i++) popeffectif[popage[i]]=popcount[i];    fprintf(ficlog,"#Number of iterations & function calls = %d & %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter, countcallfunc,func(p));
   }    fprintf(ficres,"#Number of iterations & function calls = %d & %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter, countcallfunc,func(p));
   
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i2;cptcov++){  }
    for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){  
       k=k+1;  /**** Computes Hessian and covariance matrix ***/
       fprintf(ficrespop,"\n#******");  void hesscov(double **matcov, double p[], int npar, double delti[], double ftolhess, double (*func)(double []))
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {  {
         fprintf(ficrespop," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);    double  **a,**y,*x,pd;
       }    double **hess;
       fprintf(ficrespop,"******\n");    int i, j;
       fprintf(ficrespop,"# Age");    int *indx;
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) fprintf(ficrespop," P.%d",j);  
       if (popforecast==1)  fprintf(ficrespop," [Population]");    double hessii(double p[], double delta, int theta, double delti[],double (*func)(double []),int npar);
          double hessij(double p[], double delti[], int i, int j,double (*func)(double []),int npar);
       for (cpt=0; cpt<=0;cpt++) {    void lubksb(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double b[]) ;
         fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);      void ludcmp(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double *d) ;
            double gompertz(double p[]);
         for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedate %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedate %12)/12.); agedeb--){    hess=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
           nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm);  
           nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;    printf("\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");
              fprintf(ficlog,"\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");
           p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;      printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);
           hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);        fprintf(ficlog,"%d",i);fflush(ficlog);
             
           for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){       hess[i][i]=hessii(p,ftolhess,i,delti,func,npar);
             if (h==(int) (calagedate+YEARM*cpt)) {      
               fprintf(ficrespop,"\n %3.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);      /*  printf(" %f ",p[i]);
             }          printf(" %lf %lf %lf",hess[i][i],ftolhess,delti[i]);*/
             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {    }
               kk1=0.;kk2=0;    
               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {                  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {
                 if (mobilav==1)      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)  {
                   kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];        if (j>i) { 
                 else {          printf(".%d%d",i,j);fflush(stdout);
                   kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agedeb+1)][i][cptcod];          fprintf(ficlog,".%d%d",i,j);fflush(ficlog);
                 }          hess[i][j]=hessij(p,delti,i,j,func,npar);
               }          
               if (h==(int)(calagedate+12*cpt)){          hess[j][i]=hess[i][j];    
                 tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod]=kk1;          /*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][j]);*/
                   /*fprintf(ficrespop," %.3f", kk1);        }
                     if (popforecast==1) fprintf(ficrespop," [%.f]", kk1*popeffectif[(int)agedeb+1]);*/      }
               }    }
             }    printf("\n");
             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){    fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
               kk1=0.;  
                 for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){    printf("\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");
                   kk1= kk1+tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod];    fprintf(ficlog,"\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");
                 }    
                   tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]=tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]/kk1*popeffectif[(int)(agedeb+(calagedate+12*cpt)*hstepm/YEARM*stepm-1)];    a=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
             }    y=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
     x=vector(1,npar);
             if (h==(int)(calagedate+12*cpt)) for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)    indx=ivector(1,npar);
               fprintf(ficrespop," %15.2f",tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb+1)][j][cptcod]);    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
           }      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=hess[i][j];
           free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);    ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);
         }  
       }    for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
        for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;
   /******/      x[j]=1;
       lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);
       for (cpt=1; cpt<=(anpyram1-anpyram);cpt++) {      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){ 
         fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);          matcov[i][j]=x[i];
         for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedate %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedate %12)/12.); agedeb--){      }
           nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm);    }
           nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;  
              printf("\n#Hessian matrix#\n");
           p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);    fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Hessian matrix#\n");
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) { 
           hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);        for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) { 
           for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){        printf("%.3e ",hess[i][j]);
             if (h==(int) (calagedate+YEARM*cpt)) {        fprintf(ficlog,"%.3e ",hess[i][j]);
               fprintf(ficresf,"\n %3.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);      }
             }      printf("\n");
             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {      fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
               kk1=0.;kk2=0;    }
               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {                
                 kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*tabpopprev[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];        /* Recompute Inverse */
               }    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
               if (h==(int)(calagedate+12*cpt)) fprintf(ficresf," %15.2f", kk1);      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=matcov[i][j];
             }    ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);
           }  
           free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);    /*  printf("\n#Hessian matrix recomputed#\n");
         }  
       }    for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
    }      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;
   }      x[j]=1;
        lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);
   if (mobilav==1) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){ 
         y[i][j]=x[i];
   if (popforecast==1) {        printf("%.3e ",y[i][j]);
     free_ivector(popage,0,AGESUP);        fprintf(ficlog,"%.3e ",y[i][j]);
     free_vector(popeffectif,0,AGESUP);      }
     free_vector(popcount,0,AGESUP);      printf("\n");
   }      fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
   free_ma3x(tabpop,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);    }
   free_ma3x(tabpopprev,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);    */
   fclose(ficrespop);  
 }    free_matrix(a,1,npar,1,npar);
     free_matrix(y,1,npar,1,npar);
 /***********************************************/    free_vector(x,1,npar);
 /**************** Main Program *****************/    free_ivector(indx,1,npar);
 /***********************************************/    free_matrix(hess,1,npar,1,npar);
   
 int main(int argc, char *argv[])  
 {  }
   
   int i,j, k, n=MAXN,iter,m,size,cptcode, cptcod;  /*************** hessian matrix ****************/
   double agedeb, agefin,hf;  double hessii(double x[], double delta, int theta, double delti[], double (*func)(double []), int npar)
   double ageminpar=1.e20,agemin=1.e20, agemaxpar=-1.e20, agemax=-1.e20;  {
     int i;
   double fret;    int l=1, lmax=20;
   double **xi,tmp,delta;    double k1,k2;
     double p2[MAXPARM+1]; /* identical to x */
   double dum; /* Dummy variable */    double res;
   double ***p3mat;    double delt=0.0001, delts, nkhi=10.,nkhif=1., khi=1.e-4;
   int *indx;    double fx;
   char line[MAXLINE], linepar[MAXLINE];    int k=0,kmax=10;
   char title[MAXLINE];    double l1;
   char optionfile[FILENAMELENGTH], datafile[FILENAMELENGTH],  filerespl[FILENAMELENGTH];  
   char optionfilext[10], optionfilefiname[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilehtm[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilegnuplot[FILENAMELENGTH], plotcmd[FILENAMELENGTH];    fx=func(x);
      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];
   char fileres[FILENAMELENGTH], filerespij[FILENAMELENGTH], filereso[FILENAMELENGTH], rfileres[FILENAMELENGTH];    for(l=0 ; l <=lmax; l++){  /* Enlarging the zone around the Maximum */
       l1=pow(10,l);
   char filerest[FILENAMELENGTH];      delts=delt;
   char fileregp[FILENAMELENGTH];      for(k=1 ; k <kmax; k=k+1){
   char popfile[FILENAMELENGTH];        delt = delta*(l1*k);
   char path[80],pathc[80],pathcd[80],pathtot[80],model[20];        p2[theta]=x[theta] +delt;
   int firstobs=1, lastobs=10;        k1=func(p2)-fx;   /* Might be negative if too close to the theoretical maximum */
   int sdeb, sfin; /* Status at beginning and end */        p2[theta]=x[theta]-delt;
   int c,  h , cpt,l;        k2=func(p2)-fx;
   int ju,jl, mi;        /*res= (k1-2.0*fx+k2)/delt/delt; */
   int i1,j1, k1,k2,k3,jk,aa,bb, stepsize, ij;        res= (k1+k2)/delt/delt/2.; /* Divided by because L and not 2*L */
   int jnais,jdc,jint4,jint1,jint2,jint3,**outcome,**adl,*tab;        
   int mobilav=0,popforecast=0;  #ifdef DEBUGHESS
   int hstepm, nhstepm;        printf("%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);
   double jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,jpyram, mpyram,anpyram,jpyram1, mpyram1,anpyram1, calagedate;        fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);
   #endif
   double bage, fage, age, agelim, agebase;        /*if(fabs(k1-2.0*fx+k2) <1.e-13){ */
   double ftolpl=FTOL;        if((k1 <khi/nkhi/2.) || (k2 <khi/nkhi/2.)){
   double **prlim;          k=kmax;
   double *severity;        }
   double ***param; /* Matrix of parameters */        else if((k1 >khi/nkhif) || (k2 >khi/nkhif)){ /* Keeps lastvalue before 3.84/2 KHI2 5% 1d.f. */
   double  *p;          k=kmax; l=lmax*10;
   double **matcov; /* Matrix of covariance */        }
   double ***delti3; /* Scale */        else if((k1 >khi/nkhi) || (k2 >khi/nkhi)){ 
   double *delti; /* Scale */          delts=delt;
   double ***eij, ***vareij;        }
   double **varpl; /* Variances of prevalence limits by age */      }
   double *epj, vepp;    }
   double kk1, kk2;    delti[theta]=delts;
   double dateprev1, dateprev2,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2;    return res; 
      
   }
   char version[80]="Imach version 0.8g, May 2002, INED-EUROREVES ";  
   char *alph[]={"a","a","b","c","d","e"}, str[4];  double hessij( double x[], double delti[], int thetai,int thetaj,double (*func)(double []),int npar)
   {
     int i;
   char z[1]="c", occ;    int l=1, lmax=20;
 #include <sys/time.h>    double k1,k2,k3,k4,res,fx;
 #include <time.h>    double p2[MAXPARM+1];
   char stra[80], strb[80], strc[80], strd[80],stre[80],modelsav[80];    int k;
    
   /* long total_usecs;    fx=func(x);
   struct timeval start_time, end_time;    for (k=1; k<=2; k++) {
        for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];
   gettimeofday(&start_time, (struct timezone*)0); */ /* at first time */      p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;
   getcwd(pathcd, size);      p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;
       k1=func(p2)-fx;
   printf("\n%s",version);    
   if(argc <=1){      p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;
     printf("\nEnter the parameter file name: ");      p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;
     scanf("%s",pathtot);      k2=func(p2)-fx;
   }    
   else{      p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;
     strcpy(pathtot,argv[1]);      p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;
   }      k3=func(p2)-fx;
   /*if(getcwd(pathcd, 80)!= NULL)printf ("Error pathcd\n");*/    
   /*cygwin_split_path(pathtot,path,optionfile);      p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;
     printf("pathtot=%s, path=%s, optionfile=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile);*/      p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;
   /* cutv(path,optionfile,pathtot,'\\');*/      k4=func(p2)-fx;
       res=(k1-k2-k3+k4)/4.0/delti[thetai]*k/delti[thetaj]*k/2.; /* Because of L not 2*L */
   split(pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);  #ifdef DEBUG
    printf("pathtot=%s, path=%s, optionfile=%s optionfilext=%s optionfilefiname=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);      printf("%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
   chdir(path);      fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
   replace(pathc,path);  #endif
     }
 /*-------- arguments in the command line --------*/    return res;
   }
   strcpy(fileres,"r");  
   strcat(fileres, optionfilefiname);  /************** Inverse of matrix **************/
   strcat(fileres,".txt");    /* Other files have txt extension */  void ludcmp(double **a, int n, int *indx, double *d) 
   { 
   /*---------arguments file --------*/    int i,imax,j,k; 
     double big,dum,sum,temp; 
   if((ficpar=fopen(optionfile,"r"))==NULL)    {    double *vv; 
     printf("Problem with optionfile %s\n",optionfile);   
     goto end;    vv=vector(1,n); 
   }    *d=1.0; 
     for (i=1;i<=n;i++) { 
   strcpy(filereso,"o");      big=0.0; 
   strcat(filereso,fileres);      for (j=1;j<=n;j++) 
   if((ficparo=fopen(filereso,"w"))==NULL) {        if ((temp=fabs(a[i][j])) > big) big=temp; 
     printf("Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);goto end;      if (big == 0.0) nrerror("Singular matrix in routine ludcmp"); 
   }      vv[i]=1.0/big; 
     } 
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){      for (i=1;i<j;i++) { 
     ungetc(c,ficpar);        sum=a[i][j]; 
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);        for (k=1;k<i;k++) sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j]; 
     puts(line);        a[i][j]=sum; 
     fputs(line,ficparo);      } 
   }      big=0.0; 
   ungetc(c,ficpar);      for (i=j;i<=n;i++) { 
         sum=a[i][j]; 
   fscanf(ficpar,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%lf stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n",title, datafile, &lastobs, &firstpass,&lastpass,&ftol, &stepm, &ncovcol, &nlstate,&ndeath, &maxwav, &mle, &weightopt,model);        for (k=1;k<j;k++) 
   printf("title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate,ndeath, maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);          sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j]; 
   fprintf(ficparo,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);        a[i][j]=sum; 
 while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){        if ( (dum=vv[i]*fabs(sum)) >= big) { 
     ungetc(c,ficpar);          big=dum; 
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);          imax=i; 
     puts(line);        } 
     fputs(line,ficparo);      } 
   }      if (j != imax) { 
   ungetc(c,ficpar);        for (k=1;k<=n;k++) { 
            dum=a[imax][k]; 
              a[imax][k]=a[j][k]; 
   covar=matrix(0,NCOVMAX,1,n);          a[j][k]=dum; 
   cptcovn=0;        } 
   if (strlen(model)>1) cptcovn=nbocc(model,'+')+1;        *d = -(*d); 
         vv[imax]=vv[j]; 
   ncovmodel=2+cptcovn;      } 
   nvar=ncovmodel-1; /* Suppressing age as a basic covariate */      indx[j]=imax; 
        if (a[j][j] == 0.0) a[j][j]=TINY; 
   /* Read guess parameters */      if (j != n) { 
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */        dum=1.0/(a[j][j]); 
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){        for (i=j+1;i<=n;i++) a[i][j] *= dum; 
     ungetc(c,ficpar);      } 
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);    } 
     puts(line);    free_vector(vv,1,n);  /* Doesn't work */
     fputs(line,ficparo);  ;
   }  } 
   ungetc(c,ficpar);  
    void lubksb(double **a, int n, int *indx, double b[]) 
   param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);  { 
     for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++)    int i,ii=0,ip,j; 
     for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath-1; j++){    double sum; 
       fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);   
       fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);    for (i=1;i<=n;i++) { 
       printf("%1d%1d",i,j);      ip=indx[i]; 
       for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){      sum=b[ip]; 
         fscanf(ficpar," %lf",&param[i][j][k]);      b[ip]=b[i]; 
         printf(" %lf",param[i][j][k]);      if (ii) 
         fprintf(ficparo," %lf",param[i][j][k]);        for (j=ii;j<=i-1;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j]; 
       }      else if (sum) ii=i; 
       fscanf(ficpar,"\n");      b[i]=sum; 
       printf("\n");    } 
       fprintf(ficparo,"\n");    for (i=n;i>=1;i--) { 
     }      sum=b[i]; 
        for (j=i+1;j<=n;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j]; 
     npar= (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel;      b[i]=sum/a[i][i]; 
     } 
   p=param[1][1];  } 
    
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */  void pstamp(FILE *fichier)
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){  {
     ungetc(c,ficpar);    fprintf(fichier,"# %s.%s\n#%s\n#%s\n# %s", optionfilefiname,optionfilext,version,fullversion,strstart);
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);  }
     puts(line);  
     fputs(line,ficparo);  /************ Frequencies ********************/
   }  void  freqsummary(char fileres[], int iagemin, int iagemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvaraff, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, char strstart[])
   ungetc(c,ficpar);  {  /* Some frequencies */
     
   delti3= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);    int i, m, jk, j1, bool, z1,j;
   delti=vector(1,npar); /* Scale of each paramater (output from hesscov) */    int first;
   for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){    double ***freq; /* Frequencies */
     for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath-1; j++){    double *pp, **prop;
       fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);    double pos,posprop, k2, dateintsum=0,k2cpt=0;
       printf("%1d%1d",i,j);    char fileresp[FILENAMELENGTH];
       fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);    
       for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){    pp=vector(1,nlstate);
         fscanf(ficpar,"%le",&delti3[i][j][k]);    prop=matrix(1,nlstate,iagemin,iagemax+3);
         printf(" %le",delti3[i][j][k]);    strcpy(fileresp,"p");
         fprintf(ficparo," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);    strcat(fileresp,fileres);
       }    if((ficresp=fopen(fileresp,"w"))==NULL) {
       fscanf(ficpar,"\n");      printf("Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);
       printf("\n");      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);
       fprintf(ficparo,"\n");      exit(0);
     }    }
   }    freq= ma3x(-5,nlstate+ndeath,-5,nlstate+ndeath,iagemin,iagemax+3);
   delti=delti3[1][1];    j1=0;
      
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */    j=cptcoveff;
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){    if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
     ungetc(c,ficpar);  
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);    first=1;
     puts(line);  
     fputs(line,ficparo);    /* for(k1=1; k1<=j ; k1++){ */  /* Loop on covariates */
   }    /*  for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){ */ /* Now it is 2 */
   ungetc(c,ficpar);    /*    j1++; */
      for (j1 = 1; j1 <= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff); j1++){
   matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);        /*printf("cptcoveff=%d Tvaraff=%d", cptcoveff,Tvaraff[1]);
   for(i=1; i <=npar; i++){          scanf("%d", i);*/
     fscanf(ficpar,"%s",&str);        for (i=-5; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)  
     printf("%s",str);          for (jk=-5; jk<=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)  
     fprintf(ficparo,"%s",str);            for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
     for(j=1; j <=i; j++){              freq[i][jk][m]=0;
       fscanf(ficpar," %le",&matcov[i][j]);        
       printf(" %.5le",matcov[i][j]);        for (i=1; i<=nlstate; i++)  
       fprintf(ficparo," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);          for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
     }            prop[i][m]=0;
     fscanf(ficpar,"\n");        
     printf("\n");        dateintsum=0;
     fprintf(ficparo,"\n");        k2cpt=0;
   }        for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
   for(i=1; i <=npar; i++)          bool=1;
     for(j=i+1;j<=npar;j++)          if  (cptcovn>0) { /* Filter is here: Must be looked at for model=V1+V2+V3+V4 */
       matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];            for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++)       
                  if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]){
   printf("\n");                  /* Tests if the value of each of the covariates of i is equal to filter j1 */
                 bool=0;
                 /* printf("bool=%d i=%d, z1=%d, Tvaraff[%d]=%d, covar[Tvarff][%d]=%2f, codtab[%d][%d]=%d, nbcode[Tvaraff][codtab[%d][%d]=%d, j1=%d\n", 
     /*-------- Rewriting paramater file ----------*/                  bool,i,z1, z1, Tvaraff[z1],i,covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i],j1,z1,codtab[j1][z1],
      strcpy(rfileres,"r");    /* "Rparameterfile */                  j1,z1,nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]],j1);*/
      strcat(rfileres,optionfilefiname);    /* Parameter file first name*/                /* For j1=7 in V1+V2+V3+V4 = 0 1 1 0 and codtab[7][3]=1 and nbcde[3][?]=1*/
      strcat(rfileres,".");    /* */              } 
      strcat(rfileres,optionfilext);    /* Other files have txt extension */          }
     if((ficres =fopen(rfileres,"w"))==NULL) {   
       printf("Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", fileres);goto end;          if (bool==1){
     }            for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){
     fprintf(ficres,"#%s\n",version);              k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);
                  /*if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {*/
     /*-------- data file ----------*/                if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=iagemax+1;
     if((fic=fopen(datafile,"r"))==NULL)    {                if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=iagemax+2;
       printf("Problem with datafile: %s\n", datafile);goto end;                if (s[m][i]>0 && s[m][i]<=nlstate) prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
     }                if (m<lastpass) {
                   freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
     n= lastobs;                  freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][iagemax+3] += weight[i];
     severity = vector(1,maxwav);                }
     outcome=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);                
     num=ivector(1,n);                if ((agev[m][i]>1) && (agev[m][i]< (iagemax+3))) {
     moisnais=vector(1,n);                  dateintsum=dateintsum+k2;
     annais=vector(1,n);                  k2cpt++;
     moisdc=vector(1,n);                }
     andc=vector(1,n);                /*}*/
     agedc=vector(1,n);            }
     cod=ivector(1,n);          }
     weight=vector(1,n);        } /* end i */
     for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0; /* Equal weights, 1 by default */         
     mint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);        /*      fprintf(ficresp, "#Count between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);*/
     anint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);        pstamp(ficresp);
     s=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);        if  (cptcovn>0) {
     adl=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);              fprintf(ficresp, "\n#********** Variable "); 
     tab=ivector(1,NCOVMAX);          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresp, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
     ncodemax=ivector(1,8);          fprintf(ficresp, "**********\n#");
           fprintf(ficlog, "\n#********** Variable "); 
     i=1;          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficlog, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
     while (fgets(line, MAXLINE, fic) != NULL)    {          fprintf(ficlog, "**********\n#");
       if ((i >= firstobs) && (i <=lastobs)) {        }
                for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) 
         for (j=maxwav;j>=1;j--){          fprintf(ficresp, " Age Prev(%d) N(%d) N",i,i);
           cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); s[j][i]=atoi(strb);        fprintf(ficresp, "\n");
           strcpy(line,stra);        
           cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); anint[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);        for(i=iagemin; i <= iagemax+3; i++){
           cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); mint[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);          if(i==iagemax+3){
         }            fprintf(ficlog,"Total");
                  }else{
         cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); andc[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);            if(first==1){
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); moisdc[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);              first=0;
               printf("See log file for details...\n");
         cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); annais[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);            }
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); moisnais[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);            fprintf(ficlog,"Age %d", i);
           }
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); weight[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
         for (j=ncovcol;j>=1;j--){            for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)
           cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); covar[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);              pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i]; 
         }          }
         num[i]=atol(stra);          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
                    for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)
         /*if((s[2][i]==2) && (s[3][i]==-1)&&(s[4][i]==9)){              pos += freq[jk][m][i];
           printf("%d %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]),weight[i], (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i])); ij=ij+1;}*/            if(pp[jk]>=1.e-10){
               if(first==1){
         i=i+1;                printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);
       }              }
     }              fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);
     /* printf("ii=%d", ij);            }else{
        scanf("%d",i);*/              if(first==1)
   imx=i-1; /* Number of individuals */                printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
               fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
   /* for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){            }
     if ((s[1][i]==3) && (s[2][i]==2)) s[2][i]=3;          }
     if ((s[2][i]==3) && (s[3][i]==2)) s[3][i]=3;  
     if ((s[3][i]==3) && (s[4][i]==2)) s[4][i]=3;          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
     }*/            for(m=0, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)
    /*  for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){              pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];
      if (s[4][i]==9)  s[4][i]=-1;          }       
      printf("%d %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]), (weight[i]), (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i]));}*/          for(jk=1,pos=0,posprop=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
              pos += pp[jk];
              posprop += prop[jk][i];
   /* Calculation of the number of parameter from char model*/          }
   Tvar=ivector(1,15);          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
   Tprod=ivector(1,15);            if(pos>=1.e-5){
   Tvaraff=ivector(1,15);              if(first==1)
   Tvard=imatrix(1,15,1,2);                printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);
   Tage=ivector(1,15);                    fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);
                }else{
   if (strlen(model) >1){              if(first==1)
     j=0, j1=0, k1=1, k2=1;                printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
     j=nbocc(model,'+');              fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
     j1=nbocc(model,'*');            }
     cptcovn=j+1;            if( i <= iagemax){
     cptcovprod=j1;              if(pos>=1.e-5){
                    fprintf(ficresp," %d %.5f %.0f %.0f",i,prop[jk][i]/posprop, prop[jk][i],posprop);
     strcpy(modelsav,model);                /*probs[i][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;*/
     if ((strcmp(model,"age")==0) || (strcmp(model,"age*age")==0)){                /*printf("\ni=%d jk=%d j1=%d %.5f %.0f %.0f %f",i,jk,j1,pp[jk]/pos, pp[jk],pos,probs[i][jk][j1]);*/
       printf("Error. Non available option model=%s ",model);              }
       goto end;              else
     }                fprintf(ficresp," %d NaNq %.0f %.0f",i,prop[jk][i],posprop);
                }
     for(i=(j+1); i>=1;i--){          }
       cutv(stra,strb,modelsav,'+');          
       if (nbocc(modelsav,'+')==0) strcpy(strb,modelsav);          for(jk=-1; jk <=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)
       /*      printf("i=%d a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n",i, stra,strb,modelsav);*/            for(m=-1; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)
       /*scanf("%d",i);*/              if(freq[jk][m][i] !=0 ) {
       if (strchr(strb,'*')) {              if(first==1)
         cutv(strd,strc,strb,'*');                printf(" %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);
         if (strcmp(strc,"age")==0) {                fprintf(ficlog," %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);
           cptcovprod--;              }
           cutv(strb,stre,strd,'V');          if(i <= iagemax)
           Tvar[i]=atoi(stre);            fprintf(ficresp,"\n");
           cptcovage++;          if(first==1)
             Tage[cptcovage]=i;            printf("Others in log...\n");
             /*printf("stre=%s ", stre);*/          fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
         }        }
         else if (strcmp(strd,"age")==0) {        /*}*/
           cptcovprod--;    }
           cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V');    dateintmean=dateintsum/k2cpt; 
           Tvar[i]=atoi(stre);   
           cptcovage++;    fclose(ficresp);
           Tage[cptcovage]=i;    free_ma3x(freq,-5,nlstate+ndeath,-5,nlstate+ndeath, iagemin, iagemax+3);
         }    free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);
         else {    free_matrix(prop,1,nlstate,iagemin, iagemax+3);
           cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V');    /* End of Freq */
           Tvar[i]=ncovcol+k1;  }
           cutv(strb,strc,strd,'V');  
           Tprod[k1]=i;  /************ Prevalence ********************/
           Tvard[k1][1]=atoi(strc);  void prevalence(double ***probs, double agemin, double agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, double dateprev1,double dateprev2, int firstpass, int lastpass)
           Tvard[k1][2]=atoi(stre);  {  
           Tvar[cptcovn+k2]=Tvard[k1][1];    /* Compute observed prevalence between dateprev1 and dateprev2 by counting the number of people
           Tvar[cptcovn+k2+1]=Tvard[k1][2];       in each health status at the date of interview (if between dateprev1 and dateprev2).
           for (k=1; k<=lastobs;k++)       We still use firstpass and lastpass as another selection.
             covar[ncovcol+k1][k]=covar[atoi(stre)][k]*covar[atoi(strc)][k];    */
           k1++;   
           k2=k2+2;    int i, m, jk, j1, bool, z1,j;
         }  
       }    double **prop;
       else {    double posprop; 
         /*printf("d=%s c=%s b=%s\n", strd,strc,strb);*/    double  y2; /* in fractional years */
        /*  scanf("%d",i);*/    int iagemin, iagemax;
       cutv(strd,strc,strb,'V');    int first; /** to stop verbosity which is redirected to log file */
       Tvar[i]=atoi(strc);  
       }    iagemin= (int) agemin;
       strcpy(modelsav,stra);      iagemax= (int) agemax;
       /*printf("a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n", stra,strb,modelsav);    /*pp=vector(1,nlstate);*/
         scanf("%d",i);*/    prop=matrix(1,nlstate,iagemin,iagemax+3); 
     }    /*  freq=ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,iagemin,iagemax+3);*/
 }    j1=0;
      
   /* printf("tvar1=%d tvar2=%d tvar3=%d cptcovage=%d Tage=%d",Tvar[1],Tvar[2],Tvar[3],cptcovage,Tage[1]);    /*j=cptcoveff;*/
   printf("cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);    if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
   scanf("%d ",i);*/    
     fclose(fic);    first=1;
     for(j1=1; j1<= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff);j1++){
     /*  if(mle==1){*/      /*for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
     if (weightopt != 1) { /* Maximisation without weights*/        j1++;*/
       for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0;        
     }        for (i=1; i<=nlstate; i++)  
     /*-calculation of age at interview from date of interview and age at death -*/          for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
     agev=matrix(1,maxwav,1,imx);            prop[i][m]=0.0;
        
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {        for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) { /* Each individual */
       for(m=2; (m<= maxwav); m++) {          bool=1;
        if ((mint[m][i]== 99) && (s[m][i] <= nlstate)){          if  (cptcovn>0) {
          anint[m][i]=9999;            for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) 
          s[m][i]=-1;              if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]) 
        }                bool=0;
      if(moisdc[i]==99 && andc[i]==9999 & s[m][i]>nlstate) s[m][i]=-1;          } 
       }          if (bool==1) { 
     }            for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){/* Other selection (we can limit to certain interviews*/
               y2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.); /* Fractional date in year */
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {              if ((y2>=dateprev1) && (y2<=dateprev2)) { /* Here is the main selection (fractional years) */
       agedc[i]=(moisdc[i]/12.+andc[i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+annais[i]);                if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=iagemax+1;
       for(m=1; (m<= maxwav); m++){                if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=iagemax+2;
         if(s[m][i] >0){                if((int)agev[m][i] <iagemin || (int)agev[m][i] >iagemax+3) printf("Error on individual =%d agev[m][i]=%f m=%d\n",i, agev[m][i],m); 
           if (s[m][i] >= nlstate+1) {                if (s[m][i]>0 && s[m][i]<=nlstate) { 
             if(agedc[i]>0)                  /*if(i>4620) printf(" i=%d m=%d s[m][i]=%d (int)agev[m][i]=%d weight[i]=%f prop=%f\n",i,m,s[m][i],(int)agev[m][m],weight[i],prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]]);*/
               if(moisdc[i]!=99 && andc[i]!=9999)                  prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
                 agev[m][i]=agedc[i];                  prop[s[m][i]][iagemax+3] += weight[i]; 
             /*if(moisdc[i]==99 && andc[i]==9999) s[m][i]=-1;*/                } 
            else {              }
               if (andc[i]!=9999){            } /* end selection of waves */
               printf("Warning negative age at death: %d line:%d\n",num[i],i);          }
               agev[m][i]=-1;        }
               }        for(i=iagemin; i <= iagemax+3; i++){  
             }          for(jk=1,posprop=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++) { 
           }            posprop += prop[jk][i]; 
           else if(s[m][i] !=9){ /* Should no more exist */          } 
             agev[m][i]=(mint[m][i]/12.+1./24.+anint[m][i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+1./24.+annais[i]);          
             if(mint[m][i]==99 || anint[m][i]==9999)          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){     
               agev[m][i]=1;            if( i <=  iagemax){ 
             else if(agev[m][i] <agemin){              if(posprop>=1.e-5){ 
               agemin=agev[m][i];                probs[i][jk][j1]= prop[jk][i]/posprop;
               /*printf(" Min anint[%d][%d]=%.2f annais[%d]=%.2f, agemin=%.2f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], agemin);*/              } else{
             }                if(first==1){
             else if(agev[m][i] >agemax){                  first=0;
               agemax=agev[m][i];                  printf("Warning Observed prevalence probs[%d][%d][%d]=%lf because of lack of cases\nSee others on log file...\n",jk,i,j1,probs[i][jk][j1]);
              /* printf(" anint[%d][%d]=%.0f annais[%d]=%.0f, agemax=%.0f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], agemax);*/                }
             }              }
             /*agev[m][i]=anint[m][i]-annais[i];*/            } 
             /*   agev[m][i] = age[i]+2*m;*/          }/* end jk */ 
           }        }/* end i */ 
           else { /* =9 */      /*} *//* end i1 */
             agev[m][i]=1;    } /* end j1 */
             s[m][i]=-1;    
           }    /*  free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath, iagemin, iagemax+3);*/
         }    /*free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);*/
         else /*= 0 Unknown */    free_matrix(prop,1,nlstate, iagemin,iagemax+3);
           agev[m][i]=1;  }  /* End of prevalence */
       }  
      /************* Waves Concatenation ***************/
     }  
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int **bh,  int **mw, int **s, double *agedc, double **agev, int  firstpass, int lastpass, int imx, int nlstate, int stepm)
       for(m=1; (m<= maxwav); m++){  {
         if (s[m][i] > (nlstate+ndeath)) {    /* Concatenates waves: wav[i] is the number of effective (useful waves) of individual i.
           printf("Error: Wrong value in nlstate or ndeath\n");         Death is a valid wave (if date is known).
           goto end;       mw[mi][i] is the mi (mi=1 to wav[i])  effective wave of individual i
         }       dh[m][i] or dh[mw[mi][i]][i] is the delay between two effective waves m=mw[mi][i]
       }       and mw[mi+1][i]. dh depends on stepm.
     }       */
   
 printf("Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx, agemin, agemax);    int i, mi, m;
     /* int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl,jmin=1e+5, jmax=-1;
     free_vector(severity,1,maxwav);       double sum=0., jmean=0.;*/
     free_imatrix(outcome,1,maxwav+1,1,n);    int first;
     free_vector(moisnais,1,n);    int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl;
     free_vector(annais,1,n);    double sum=0.;
     /* free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);    first=0;
        free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n);*/    jmin=100000;
     free_vector(moisdc,1,n);    jmax=-1;
     free_vector(andc,1,n);    jmean=0.;
     for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){
          mi=0;
     wav=ivector(1,imx);      m=firstpass;
     dh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);      while(s[m][i] <= nlstate){
     mw=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);        if(s[m][i]>=1 || s[m][i]==-2 || s[m][i]==-4 || s[m][i]==-5)
              mw[++mi][i]=m;
     /* Concatenates waves */        if(m >=lastpass)
       concatwav(wav, dh, mw, s, agedc, agev,  firstpass, lastpass, imx, nlstate, stepm);          break;
         else
           m++;
       Tcode=ivector(1,100);      }/* end while */
       nbcode=imatrix(0,NCOVMAX,0,NCOVMAX);      if (s[m][i] > nlstate){
       ncodemax[1]=1;        mi++;     /* Death is another wave */
       if (cptcovn > 0) tricode(Tvar,nbcode,imx);        /* if(mi==0)  never been interviewed correctly before death */
                 /* Only death is a correct wave */
    codtab=imatrix(1,100,1,10);        mw[mi][i]=m;
    h=0;      }
    m=pow(2,cptcoveff);  
        wav[i]=mi;
    for(k=1;k<=cptcoveff; k++){      if(mi==0){
      for(i=1; i <=(m/pow(2,k));i++){        nbwarn++;
        for(j=1; j <= ncodemax[k]; j++){        if(first==0){
          for(cpt=1; cpt <=(m/pow(2,cptcoveff+1-k)); cpt++){          printf("Warning! No valid information for individual %ld line=%d (skipped) and may be others, see log file\n",num[i],i);
            h++;          first=1;
            if (h>m) h=1;codtab[h][k]=j;codtab[h][Tvar[k]]=j;        }
            /*  printf("h=%d k=%d j=%d codtab[h][k]=%d tvar[k]=%d \n",h, k,j,codtab[h][k],Tvar[k]);*/        if(first==1){
          }          fprintf(ficlog,"Warning! No valid information for individual %ld line=%d (skipped)\n",num[i],i);
        }        }
      }      } /* end mi==0 */
    }    } /* End individuals */
    /* printf("codtab[1][2]=%d codtab[2][2]=%d",codtab[1][2],codtab[2][2]);  
       codtab[1][2]=1;codtab[2][2]=2; */    for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){
    /* for(i=1; i <=m ;i++){      for(mi=1; mi<wav[i];mi++){
       for(k=1; k <=cptcovn; k++){        if (stepm <=0)
       printf("i=%d k=%d %d %d ",i,k,codtab[i][k], cptcoveff);          dh[mi][i]=1;
       }        else{
       printf("\n");          if (s[mw[mi+1][i]][i] > nlstate) { /* A death */
       }            if (agedc[i] < 2*AGESUP) {
       scanf("%d",i);*/              j= rint(agedc[i]*12-agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12); 
                  if(j==0) j=1;  /* Survives at least one month after exam */
    /* Calculates basic frequencies. Computes observed prevalence at single age              else if(j<0){
        and prints on file fileres'p'. */                nberr++;
                 printf("Error! Negative delay (%d to death) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
                    j=1; /* Temporary Dangerous patch */
                    printf("   We assumed that the date of interview was correct (and not the date of death) and postponed the death %d month(s) (one stepm) after the interview. You MUST fix the contradiction between dates.\n",stepm);
     pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */                fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Negative delay (%d to death) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
     oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */                fprintf(ficlog,"   We assumed that the date of interview was correct (and not the date of death) and postponed the death %d month(s) (one stepm) after the interview. You MUST fix the contradiction between dates.\n",stepm);
     newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */              }
     savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */              k=k+1;
     oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */              if (j >= jmax){
                      jmax=j;
     /* For Powell, parameters are in a vector p[] starting at p[1]                ijmax=i;
        so we point p on param[1][1] so that p[1] maps on param[1][1][1] */              }
     p=param[1][1]; /* *(*(*(param +1)+1)+0) */              if (j <= jmin){
                 jmin=j;
     if(mle==1){                ijmin=i;
     mlikeli(ficres,p, npar, ncovmodel, nlstate, ftol, func);              }
     }              sum=sum+j;
                  /*if (j<0) printf("j=%d num=%d \n",j,i);*/
     /*--------- results files --------------*/              /*    printf("%d %d %d %d\n", s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i],j,i);*/
     fprintf(ficres,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle= 0 weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate, ndeath, maxwav, weightopt,model);            }
            }
           else{
    jk=1;            j= rint( (agev[mw[mi+1][i]][i]*12 - agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12));
    fprintf(ficres,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");  /*        if (j<0) printf("%d %lf %lf %d %d %d\n", i,agev[mw[mi+1][i]][i], agev[mw[mi][i]][i],j,s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]); */
    printf("# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");  
    for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){            k=k+1;
      for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){            if (j >= jmax) {
        if (k != i)              jmax=j;
          {              ijmax=i;
            printf("%d%d ",i,k);            }
            fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d ",i,k);            else if (j <= jmin){
            for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){              jmin=j;
              printf("%f ",p[jk]);              ijmin=i;
              fprintf(ficres,"%f ",p[jk]);            }
              jk++;            /*        if (j<10) printf("j=%d jmin=%d num=%d ",j,jmin,i); */
            }            /*printf("%d %lf %d %d %d\n", i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],j,s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);*/
            printf("\n");            if(j<0){
            fprintf(ficres,"\n");              nberr++;
          }              printf("Error! Negative delay (%d) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
      }              fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Negative delay (%d) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
    }            }
  if(mle==1){            sum=sum+j;
     /* Computing hessian and covariance matrix */          }
     ftolhess=ftol; /* Usually correct */          jk= j/stepm;
     hesscov(matcov, p, npar, delti, ftolhess, func);          jl= j -jk*stepm;
  }          ju= j -(jk+1)*stepm;
     fprintf(ficres,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");          if(mle <=1){ /* only if we use a the linear-interpoloation pseudo-likelihood */
     printf("# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");            if(jl==0){
      for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){              dh[mi][i]=jk;
       for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){              bh[mi][i]=0;
         if (j!=i) {            }else{ /* We want a negative bias in order to only have interpolation ie
           fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d",i,j);                    * to avoid the price of an extra matrix product in likelihood */
           printf("%1d%1d",i,j);              dh[mi][i]=jk+1;
           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){              bh[mi][i]=ju;
             printf(" %.5e",delti[jk]);            }
             fprintf(ficres," %.5e",delti[jk]);          }else{
             jk++;            if(jl <= -ju){
           }              dh[mi][i]=jk;
           printf("\n");              bh[mi][i]=jl;       /* bias is positive if real duration
           fprintf(ficres,"\n");                                   * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
         }                                   */
       }            }
      }            else{
                  dh[mi][i]=jk+1;
     k=1;              bh[mi][i]=ju;
     fprintf(ficres,"# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");            }
     printf("# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");            if(dh[mi][i]==0){
     for(i=1;i<=npar;i++){              dh[mi][i]=1; /* At least one step */
       /*  if (k>nlstate) k=1;              bh[mi][i]=ju; /* At least one step */
       i1=(i-1)/(ncovmodel*nlstate)+1;              /*  printf(" bh=%d ju=%d jl=%d dh=%d jk=%d stepm=%d %d\n",bh[mi][i],ju,jl,dh[mi][i],jk,stepm,i);*/
       fprintf(ficres,"%s%d%d",alph[k],i1,tab[i]);            }
       printf("%s%d%d",alph[k],i1,tab[i]);*/          } /* end if mle */
       fprintf(ficres,"%3d",i);        }
       printf("%3d",i);      } /* end wave */
       for(j=1; j<=i;j++){    }
         fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[i][j]);    jmean=sum/k;
         printf(" %.5e",matcov[i][j]);    printf("Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d (for indiviudal %ld) Max=%d (%ld) Mean=%f\n\n ",jmin, num[ijmin], jmax, num[ijmax], jmean);
       }    fprintf(ficlog,"Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d (for indiviudal %d) Max=%d (%d) Mean=%f\n\n ",jmin, ijmin, jmax, ijmax, jmean);
       fprintf(ficres,"\n");   }
       printf("\n");  
       k++;  /*********** Tricode ****************************/
     }  void tricode(int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int imx, int *Ndum)
      {
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){    /**< Uses cptcovn+2*cptcovprod as the number of covariates */
       ungetc(c,ficpar);    /*      Tvar[i]=atoi(stre);  find 'n' in Vn and stores in Tvar. If model=V2+V1 Tvar[1]=2 and Tvar[2]=1 
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);     * Boring subroutine which should only output nbcode[Tvar[j]][k]
       puts(line);     * Tvar[5] in V2+V1+V3*age+V2*V4 is 2 (V2)
       fputs(line,ficparo);     * nbcode[Tvar[j]][1]= 
     }    */
     ungetc(c,ficpar);  
     estepm=0;    int ij=1, k=0, j=0, i=0, maxncov=NCOVMAX;
     fscanf(ficpar,"agemin=%lf agemax=%lf bage=%lf fage=%lf estepm=%d\n",&ageminpar,&agemaxpar, &bage, &fage, &estepm);    int modmaxcovj=0; /* Modality max of covariates j */
     if (estepm==0 || estepm < stepm) estepm=stepm;    int cptcode=0; /* Modality max of covariates j */
     if (fage <= 2) {    int modmincovj=0; /* Modality min of covariates j */
       bage = ageminpar;  
       fage = agemaxpar;  
     }    cptcoveff=0; 
       
     fprintf(ficres,"# agemin agemax for life expectancy, bage fage (if mle==0 ie no data nor Max likelihood).\n");    for (k=-1; k < maxncov; k++) Ndum[k]=0;
     fprintf(ficres,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm);    for (k=1; k <= maxncov; k++) ncodemax[k]=0; /* Horrible constant again replaced by NCOVMAX */
     fprintf(ficparo,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm);  
      /* Loop on covariates without age and products */
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){    for (j=1; j<=(cptcovs); j++) { /* From model V1 + V2*age+ V3 + V3*V4 keeps V1 + V3 = 2 only */
     ungetc(c,ficpar);      for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) { /* Loop on individuals: reads the data file to get the maximum value of the 
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);                                 modality of this covariate Vj*/ 
     puts(line);        ij=(int)(covar[Tvar[j]][i]); /* ij=0 or 1 or -1. Value of the covariate Tvar[j] for individual i
     fputs(line,ficparo);                                      * If product of Vn*Vm, still boolean *:
   }                                      * If it was coded 1, 2, 3, 4 should be splitted into 3 boolean variables
   ungetc(c,ficpar);                                      * 1 => 0 0 0, 2 => 0 0 1, 3 => 0 1 1, 4=1 0 0   */
          /* Finds for covariate j, n=Tvar[j] of Vn . ij is the
   fscanf(ficpar,"begin-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf end-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf\n",&jprev1, &mprev1,&anprev1,&jprev2, &mprev2,&anprev2);                                        modality of the nth covariate of individual i. */
   fprintf(ficparo,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);        if (ij > modmaxcovj)
  fprintf(ficres,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);          modmaxcovj=ij; 
              else if (ij < modmincovj) 
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){          modmincovj=ij; 
     ungetc(c,ficpar);        if ((ij < -1) && (ij > NCOVMAX)){
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);          printf( "Error: minimal is less than -1 or maximal is bigger than %d. Exiting. \n", NCOVMAX );
     puts(line);          exit(1);
     fputs(line,ficparo);        }else
   }        Ndum[ij]++; /*counts and stores the occurence of this modality 0, 1, -1*/
   ungetc(c,ficpar);        /*  If coded 1, 2, 3 , counts the number of 1 Ndum[1], number of 2, Ndum[2], etc */
          /*printf("i=%d ij=%d Ndum[ij]=%d imx=%d",i,ij,Ndum[ij],imx);*/
         /* getting the maximum value of the modality of the covariate
    dateprev1=anprev1+mprev1/12.+jprev1/365.;           (should be 0 or 1 now) Tvar[j]. If V=sex and male is coded 0 and
    dateprev2=anprev2+mprev2/12.+jprev2/365.;           female is 1, then modmaxcovj=1.*/
       } /* end for loop on individuals */
   fscanf(ficpar,"pop_based=%d\n",&popbased);      printf(" Minimal and maximal values of %d th covariate V%d: min=%d max=%d \n", j, Tvar[j], modmincovj, modmaxcovj);
   fprintf(ficparo,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);        cptcode=modmaxcovj;
   fprintf(ficres,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);        /* Ndum[0] = frequency of 0 for model-covariate j, Ndum[1] frequency of 1 etc. */
       /*for (i=0; i<=cptcode; i++) {*/
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){      for (i=modmincovj;  i<=modmaxcovj; i++) { /* i=-1 ? 0 and 1*//* For each value of the modality of model-cov j */
     ungetc(c,ficpar);        printf("Frequencies of covariates %d ie V%d with value %d: %d\n", j, Tvar[j], i, Ndum[i]);
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);        if( Ndum[i] != 0 ){ /* Counts if nobody answered, empty modality */
     puts(line);          ncodemax[j]++;  /* ncodemax[j]= Number of non-null modalities of the j th covariate. */
     fputs(line,ficparo);        }
   }        /* In fact  ncodemax[j]=2 (dichotom. variables only) but it could be more for
   ungetc(c,ficpar);           historical reasons: 3 if coded 1, 2, 3 and 4 and Ndum[2]=0 */
       } /* Ndum[-1] number of undefined modalities */
   fscanf(ficpar,"starting-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf final-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mov_average=%d\n",&jproj1,&mproj1,&anproj1,&jproj2,&mproj2,&anproj2,&mobilav);  
 fprintf(ficparo,"starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilav);      /* j is a covariate, n=Tvar[j] of Vn; Fills nbcode */
 fprintf(ficres,"starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilav);      /* For covariate j, modalities could be 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. 
          If Ndum[1]=0, Ndum[2]=0, Ndum[3]= 635, Ndum[4]=0, Ndum[5]=0, Ndum[6]=27, Ndum[7]=125;
          modmincovj=3; modmaxcovj = 7;
 while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){         There are only 3 modalities non empty 3, 6, 7 (or 2 if 27 is too few) : ncodemax[j]=3;
     ungetc(c,ficpar);         which will be coded 0, 1, 2 which in binary on 2=3-1 digits are 0=00 1=01, 2=10;
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);         defining two dummy variables: variables V1_1 and V1_2.
     puts(line);         nbcode[Tvar[j]][ij]=k;
     fputs(line,ficparo);         nbcode[Tvar[j]][1]=0;
   }         nbcode[Tvar[j]][2]=1;
   ungetc(c,ficpar);         nbcode[Tvar[j]][3]=2;
       */
   fscanf(ficpar,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s popfiledate=%lf/%lf/%lf last-popfiledate=%lf/%lf/%lf\n",&popforecast,popfile,&jpyram,&mpyram,&anpyram,&jpyram1,&mpyram1,&anpyram1);      ij=1; /* ij is similar to i but can jumps over null modalities */
   fprintf(ficparo,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s popfiledate=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf last-popfiledate=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",popforecast,popfile,jpyram,mpyram,anpyram,jpyram1,mpyram1,anpyram1);      for (i=modmincovj; i<=modmaxcovj; i++) { /* i= 1 to 2 for dichotomous, or from 1 to 3 */
   fprintf(ficres,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s popfiledate=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf last-popfiledate=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",popforecast,popfile,jpyram,mpyram,anpyram,jpyram1,mpyram1,anpyram1);        for (k=0; k<= cptcode; k++) { /* k=-1 ? k=0 to 1 *//* Could be 1 to 4 */
           /*recode from 0 */
  freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,dateprev1,dateprev2,jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);          if (Ndum[k] != 0) { /* If at least one individual responded to this modality k */
             nbcode[Tvar[j]][ij]=k;  /* stores the modality k in an array nbcode. 
 /*------------ gnuplot -------------*/                                       k is a modality. If we have model=V1+V1*sex 
  printinggnuplot(fileres,optionfilefiname,optionfile,optionfilegnuplot, ageminpar,agemaxpar,fage, pathc,p);                                       then: nbcode[1][1]=0 ; nbcode[1][2]=1; nbcode[2][1]=0 ; nbcode[2][2]=1; */
              ij++;
 /*------------ free_vector  -------------*/          }
  chdir(path);          if (ij > ncodemax[j]) break; 
          }  /* end of loop on */
  free_ivector(wav,1,imx);      } /* end of loop on modality */ 
  free_imatrix(dh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);    } /* end of loop on model-covariate j. nbcode[Tvarj][1]=0 and nbcode[Tvarj][2]=1 sets the value of covariate j*/  
  free_imatrix(mw,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);      
  free_ivector(num,1,n);   for (k=-1; k< maxncov; k++) Ndum[k]=0; 
  free_vector(agedc,1,n);    
  /*free_matrix(covar,1,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/    for (i=1; i<=ncovmodel-2-nagesqr; i++) { /* -2, cste and age and eventually age*age */ 
  fclose(ficparo);     /* Listing of all covariables in statement model to see if some covariates appear twice. For example, V1 appears twice in V1+V1*V2.*/ 
  fclose(ficres);     ij=Tvar[i]; /* Tvar might be -1 if status was unknown */ 
      Ndum[ij]++; /* Might be supersed V1 + V1*age */
 /*--------- index.htm --------*/   } 
   
  printinghtml(fileres,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, stepm, weightopt,model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,optionfile,optionfilehtm,rfileres,optionfilegnuplot,version,popforecast,estepm,jprev1,mprev1,anprev1,jprev2,mprev2,anprev2);   ij=1;
    for (i=0; i<=  maxncov-1; i++) { /* modmaxcovj is unknown here. Only Ndum[2(V2),3(age*V3), 5(V3*V2) 6(V1*V4) */
       /*printf("Ndum[%d]=%d\n",i, Ndum[i]);*/
   /*--------------- Prevalence limit --------------*/     if((Ndum[i]!=0) && (i<=ncovcol)){
         /*printf("diff Ndum[%d]=%d\n",i, Ndum[i]);*/
   strcpy(filerespl,"pl");       Tvaraff[ij]=i; /*For printing (unclear) */
   strcat(filerespl,fileres);       ij++;
   if((ficrespl=fopen(filerespl,"w"))==NULL) {     }else
     printf("Problem with Prev limit resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);goto end;         Tvaraff[ij]=0;
   }   }
   printf("Computing prevalence limit: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);   ij--;
   fprintf(ficrespl,"#Prevalence limit\n");   cptcoveff=ij; /*Number of total covariates*/
   fprintf(ficrespl,"#Age ");  
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrespl,"%d-%d ",i,i);  }
   fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");  
    
   prlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);  /*********** Health Expectancies ****************/
   pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */  
   oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */  void evsij(double ***eij, double x[], int nlstate, int stepm, int bage, int fage, double **oldm, double **savm, int cij, int estepm,char strstart[] )
   newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */  
   savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */  {
   oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */    /* Health expectancies, no variances */
   k=0;    int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm;
   agebase=ageminpar;    int nhstepma, nstepma; /* Decreasing with age */
   agelim=agemaxpar;    double age, agelim, hf;
   ftolpl=1.e-10;    double ***p3mat;
   i1=cptcoveff;    double eip;
   if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}  
     pstamp(ficreseij);
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){    fprintf(ficreseij,"# (a) Life expectancies by health status at initial age and (b) health expectancies by health status at initial age\n");
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){    fprintf(ficreseij,"# Age");
         k=k+1;    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
         /*printf("cptcov=%d cptcod=%d codtab=%d nbcode=%d\n",cptcov, cptcod,Tcode[cptcode],codtab[cptcod][cptcov]);*/      for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
         fprintf(ficrespl,"\n#******");        fprintf(ficreseij," e%1d%1d ",i,j);
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)      }
           fprintf(ficrespl," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);      fprintf(ficreseij," e%1d. ",i);
         fprintf(ficrespl,"******\n");    }
            fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");
         for (age=agebase; age<=agelim; age++){  
           prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);    
           fprintf(ficrespl,"%.0f",age );    if(estepm < stepm){
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)      printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
           fprintf(ficrespl," %.5f", prlim[i][i]);    }
           fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");    else  hstepm=estepm;   
         }    /* We compute the life expectancy from trapezoids spaced every estepm months
       }     * This is mainly to measure the difference between two models: for example
     }     * if stepm=24 months pijx are given only every 2 years and by summing them
   fclose(ficrespl);     * we are calculating an estimate of the Life Expectancy assuming a linear 
      * progression in between and thus overestimating or underestimating according
   /*------------- h Pij x at various ages ------------*/     * to the curvature of the survival function. If, for the same date, we 
       * estimate the model with stepm=1 month, we can keep estepm to 24 months
   strcpy(filerespij,"pij");  strcat(filerespij,fileres);     * to compare the new estimate of Life expectancy with the same linear 
   if((ficrespij=fopen(filerespij,"w"))==NULL) {     * hypothesis. A more precise result, taking into account a more precise
     printf("Problem with Pij resultfile: %s\n", filerespij);goto end;     * curvature will be obtained if estepm is as small as stepm. */
   }  
   printf("Computing pij: result on file '%s' \n", filerespij);    /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
      /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm. 
   stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;       nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim 
   /*if (stepm<=24) stepsize=2;*/       nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin. 
        Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size
   agelim=AGESUP;       and note for a fixed period like estepm months */
   hstepm=stepsize*YEARM; /* Every year of age */    /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */       survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
         means that if the survival funtion is printed only each two years of age and if
   k=0;       you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same 
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){       results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){    */
       k=k+1;    hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */ 
         fprintf(ficrespij,"\n#****** ");  
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)    agelim=AGESUP;
           fprintf(ficrespij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);    /* If stepm=6 months */
         fprintf(ficrespij,"******\n");      /* Computed by stepm unit matrices, product of hstepm matrices, stored
                 in an array of nhstepm length: nhstepm=10, hstepm=4, stepm=6 months */
         for (agedeb=fage; agedeb>=bage; agedeb--){ /* If stepm=6 months */      
           nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */  /* nhstepm age range expressed in number of stepm */
           nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */    nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-bage)*YEARM/stepm); /* Biggest nstepm */
           p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);    /* Typically if 20 years nstepm = 20*12/6=40 stepm */ 
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;    /* if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;*/
           hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);      nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
           fprintf(ficrespij,"# Age");    p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)  
             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)    for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ 
               fprintf(ficrespij," %1d-%1d",i,j);      nstepma=(int) rint((agelim-bage)*YEARM/stepm); /* Biggest nstepm */
           fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");      /* Typically if 20 years nstepm = 20*12/6=40 stepm */ 
            for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){      /* if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;*/
             fprintf(ficrespij,"%d %.0f %.0f",k,agedeb, agedeb+ h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm );      nhstepma = nstepma/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepma=40/4=10 */
             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)  
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)      /* If stepm=6 months */
                 fprintf(ficrespij," %.5f", p3mat[i][j][h]);      /* Computed by stepm unit matrices, product of hstepma matrices, stored
             fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");         in an array of nhstepma length: nhstepma=10, hstepm=4, stepm=6 months */
              }      
           free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);      hpxij(p3mat,nhstepma,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm, savm, cij);  
           fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");      
         }      hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
     }      
   }      printf("%d|",(int)age);fflush(stdout);
       fprintf(ficlog,"%d|",(int)age);fflush(ficlog);
   varprob(fileres, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, (int) bage, (int) fage,k,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax);      
       /* Computing expectancies */
   fclose(ficrespij);      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
         for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
           for (h=0, eij[i][j][(int)age]=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
   /*---------- Forecasting ------------------*/            eij[i][j][(int)age] += (p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.0*hf;
   if((stepm == 1) && (strcmp(model,".")==0)){            
     prevforecast(fileres, anproj1,mproj1,jproj1, agemin,agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2,mobilav, agedeb, fage, popforecast, popfile, anproj2,p, i1);            /* if((int)age==70)printf("i=%2d,j=%2d,h=%2d,age=%3d,%9.4f,%9.4f,%9.4f\n",i,j,h,(int)age,p3mat[i][j][h],hf,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
     if (popforecast==1) populforecast(fileres, anpyram,mpyram,jpyram, agemin,agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2,mobilav, agedeb, fage, popforecast, popfile, anpyram1,p, i1);  
   }          }
   else{  
     erreur=108;      fprintf(ficreseij,"%3.0f",age );
     printf("Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model);      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
   }        eip=0;
          for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
           eip +=eij[i][j][(int)age];
   /*---------- Health expectancies and variances ------------*/          fprintf(ficreseij,"%9.4f", eij[i][j][(int)age] );
         }
   strcpy(filerest,"t");        fprintf(ficreseij,"%9.4f", eip );
   strcat(filerest,fileres);      }
   if((ficrest=fopen(filerest,"w"))==NULL) {      fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");
     printf("Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;      
   }    }
   printf("Computing Total LEs with variances: file '%s' \n", filerest);    free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
     printf("\n");
     fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
   strcpy(filerese,"e");    
   strcat(filerese,fileres);  }
   if((ficreseij=fopen(filerese,"w"))==NULL) {  
     printf("Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);  void cvevsij(double ***eij, double x[], int nlstate, int stepm, int bage, int fage, double **oldm, double **savm, int cij, int estepm,double delti[],double **matcov,char strstart[] )
   }  
   printf("Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);  {
     /* Covariances of health expectancies eij and of total life expectancies according
  strcpy(fileresv,"v");     to initial status i, ei. .
   strcat(fileresv,fileres);    */
   if((ficresvij=fopen(fileresv,"w"))==NULL) {    int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm, k, cptj, cptj2, i2, j2, ij, ji;
     printf("Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);    int nhstepma, nstepma; /* Decreasing with age */
   }    double age, agelim, hf;
   printf("Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);    double ***p3matp, ***p3matm, ***varhe;
   calagedate=-1;    double **dnewm,**doldm;
 prevalence(ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,dateprev1,dateprev2, calagedate);    double *xp, *xm;
     double **gp, **gm;
   k=0;    double ***gradg, ***trgradg;
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){    int theta;
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){  
       k=k+1;    double eip, vip;
       fprintf(ficrest,"\n#****** ");  
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)    varhe=ma3x(1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
         fprintf(ficrest,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);    xp=vector(1,npar);
       fprintf(ficrest,"******\n");    xm=vector(1,npar);
     dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
       fprintf(ficreseij,"\n#****** ");    doldm=matrix(1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate);
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)    
         fprintf(ficreseij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);    pstamp(ficresstdeij);
       fprintf(ficreseij,"******\n");    fprintf(ficresstdeij,"# Health expectancies with standard errors\n");
     fprintf(ficresstdeij,"# Age");
       fprintf(ficresvij,"\n#****** ");    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)      for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
         fprintf(ficresvij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);        fprintf(ficresstdeij," e%1d%1d (SE)",i,j);
       fprintf(ficresvij,"******\n");      fprintf(ficresstdeij," e%1d. ",i);
     }
       eij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);    fprintf(ficresstdeij,"\n");
       oldm=oldms;savm=savms;  
       evsij(fileres, eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k, estepm, delti, matcov);      pstamp(ficrescveij);
      fprintf(ficrescveij,"# Subdiagonal matrix of covariances of health expectancies by age: cov(eij,ekl)\n");
       vareij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);    fprintf(ficrescveij,"# Age");
       oldm=oldms;savm=savms;    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
        varevsij(fileres, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k, estepm);      for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
            cptj= (j-1)*nlstate+i;
         for(i2=1; i2<=nlstate;i2++)
            for(j2=1; j2<=nlstate;j2++){
       fprintf(ficrest,"#Total LEs with variances: e.. (std) ");            cptj2= (j2-1)*nlstate+i2;
       for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrest,"e.%d (std) ",i);            if(cptj2 <= cptj)
       fprintf(ficrest,"\n");              fprintf(ficrescveij,"  %1d%1d,%1d%1d",i,j,i2,j2);
           }
       epj=vector(1,nlstate+1);      }
       for(age=bage; age <=fage ;age++){    fprintf(ficrescveij,"\n");
         prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);    
         if (popbased==1) {    if(estepm < stepm){
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)      printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
             prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][k];    }
         }    else  hstepm=estepm;   
            /* We compute the life expectancy from trapezoids spaced every estepm months
         fprintf(ficrest," %4.0f",age);     * This is mainly to measure the difference between two models: for example
         for(j=1, epj[nlstate+1]=0.;j <=nlstate;j++){     * if stepm=24 months pijx are given only every 2 years and by summing them
           for(i=1, epj[j]=0.;i <=nlstate;i++) {     * we are calculating an estimate of the Life Expectancy assuming a linear 
             epj[j] += prlim[i][i]*eij[i][j][(int)age];     * progression in between and thus overestimating or underestimating according
             /*  printf("%lf %lf ", prlim[i][i] ,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/     * to the curvature of the survival function. If, for the same date, we 
           }     * estimate the model with stepm=1 month, we can keep estepm to 24 months
           epj[nlstate+1] +=epj[j];     * to compare the new estimate of Life expectancy with the same linear 
         }     * hypothesis. A more precise result, taking into account a more precise
      * curvature will be obtained if estepm is as small as stepm. */
         for(i=1, vepp=0.;i <=nlstate;i++)  
           for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++)    /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
             vepp += vareij[i][j][(int)age];    /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm. 
         fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[nlstate+1],sqrt(vepp));       nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim 
         for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++){       nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin. 
           fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[j],sqrt(vareij[j][j][(int)age]));       Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size
         }       and note for a fixed period like estepm months */
         fprintf(ficrest,"\n");    /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
       }       survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
     }       means that if the survival funtion is printed only each two years of age and if
   }       you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same 
 free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);       results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.
     free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n); free_imatrix(s,1,maxwav+1,1,n);    */
     free_vector(weight,1,n);    hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */ 
   fclose(ficreseij);  
   fclose(ficresvij);    /* If stepm=6 months */
   fclose(ficrest);    /* nhstepm age range expressed in number of stepm */
   fclose(ficpar);    agelim=AGESUP;
   free_vector(epj,1,nlstate+1);    nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-bage)*YEARM/stepm); 
      /* Typically if 20 years nstepm = 20*12/6=40 stepm */ 
   /*------- Variance limit prevalence------*/      /* if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;*/
     nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
   strcpy(fileresvpl,"vpl");    
   strcat(fileresvpl,fileres);    p3matp=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
   if((ficresvpl=fopen(fileresvpl,"w"))==NULL) {    p3matm=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
     printf("Problem with variance prev lim resultfile: %s\n", fileresvpl);    gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate*nlstate);
     exit(0);    trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
   }    gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
   printf("Computing Variance-covariance of Prevalence limit: file '%s' \n", fileresvpl);    gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
   
   k=0;    for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ 
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){      nstepma=(int) rint((agelim-bage)*YEARM/stepm); /* Biggest nstepm */
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){      /* Typically if 20 years nstepm = 20*12/6=40 stepm */ 
       k=k+1;      /* if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;*/
       fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n#****** ");      nhstepma = nstepma/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepma=40/4=10 */
       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)  
         fprintf(ficresvpl,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);      /* If stepm=6 months */
       fprintf(ficresvpl,"******\n");      /* Computed by stepm unit matrices, product of hstepma matrices, stored
               in an array of nhstepma length: nhstepma=10, hstepm=4, stepm=6 months */
       varpl=matrix(1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);      
       oldm=oldms;savm=savms;      hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
      varprevlim(fileres, varpl, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k);  
     }      /* Computing  Variances of health expectancies */
  }      /* Gradient is computed with plus gp and minus gm. Code is duplicated in order to
          decrease memory allocation */
   fclose(ficresvpl);      for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
         for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ 
   /*---------- End : free ----------------*/          xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
   free_matrix(varpl,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);          xm[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
          }
   free_ma3x(vareij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);        hpxij(p3matp,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, cij);  
   free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);        hpxij(p3matm,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xm,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, cij);  
      
          for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
   free_matrix(pmmij,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);          for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++){
   free_matrix(oldms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);            for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
   free_matrix(newms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);              gp[h][(j-1)*nlstate + i] = (p3matp[i][j][h]+p3matp[i][j][h+1])/2.;
   free_matrix(savms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);              gm[h][(j-1)*nlstate + i] = (p3matm[i][j][h]+p3matm[i][j][h+1])/2.;
              }
   free_matrix(matcov,1,npar,1,npar);          }
   free_vector(delti,1,npar);        }
   free_matrix(agev,1,maxwav,1,imx);       
   free_ma3x(param,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);        for(ij=1; ij<= nlstate*nlstate; ij++)
           for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
   if(erreur >0)            gradg[h][theta][ij]= (gp[h][ij]-gm[h][ij])/2./delti[theta];
     printf("End of Imach with error or warning %d\n",erreur);          }
   else   printf("End of Imach\n");      }/* End theta */
   /*  gettimeofday(&end_time, (struct timezone*)0);*/  /* after time */      
        
   /* printf("Total time was %d Sec. %d uSec.\n", end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec, end_time.tv_usec -start_time.tv_usec);*/      for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++)
   /*printf("Total time was %d uSec.\n", total_usecs);*/        for(j=1; j<=nlstate*nlstate;j++)
   /*------ End -----------*/          for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
             trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];
       
  end:  
 #ifdef windows       for(ij=1;ij<=nlstate*nlstate;ij++)
   /* chdir(pathcd);*/        for(ji=1;ji<=nlstate*nlstate;ji++)
 #endif          varhe[ij][ji][(int)age] =0.;
  /*system("wgnuplot graph.plt");*/  
  /*system("../gp37mgw/wgnuplot graph.plt");*/       printf("%d|",(int)age);fflush(stdout);
  /*system("cd ../gp37mgw");*/       fprintf(ficlog,"%d|",(int)age);fflush(ficlog);
  /* system("..\\gp37mgw\\wgnuplot graph.plt");*/       for(h=0;h<=nhstepm-1;h++){
  strcpy(plotcmd,GNUPLOTPROGRAM);        for(k=0;k<=nhstepm-1;k++){
  strcat(plotcmd," ");          matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
  strcat(plotcmd,optionfilegnuplot);          matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate*nlstate,gradg[k]);
  system(plotcmd);          for(ij=1;ij<=nlstate*nlstate;ij++)
             for(ji=1;ji<=nlstate*nlstate;ji++)
 #ifdef windows              varhe[ij][ji][(int)age] += doldm[ij][ji]*hf*hf;
   while (z[0] != 'q') {        }
     /* chdir(path); */      }
     printf("\nType e to edit output files, g to graph again, c to start again, and q for exiting: ");  
     scanf("%s",z);      /* Computing expectancies */
     if (z[0] == 'c') system("./imach");      hpxij(p3matm,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm, savm, cij);  
     else if (z[0] == 'e') system(optionfilehtm);      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
     else if (z[0] == 'g') system(plotcmd);        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
     else if (z[0] == 'q') exit(0);          for (h=0, eij[i][j][(int)age]=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
   }            eij[i][j][(int)age] += (p3matm[i][j][h]+p3matm[i][j][h+1])/2.0*hf;
 #endif            
 }            /* if((int)age==70)printf("i=%2d,j=%2d,h=%2d,age=%3d,%9.4f,%9.4f,%9.4f\n",i,j,h,(int)age,p3mat[i][j][h],hf,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
   
           }
   
       fprintf(ficresstdeij,"%3.0f",age );
       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
         eip=0.;
         vip=0.;
         for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
           eip += eij[i][j][(int)age];
           for(k=1; k<=nlstate;k++) /* Sum on j and k of cov(eij,eik) */
             vip += varhe[(j-1)*nlstate+i][(k-1)*nlstate+i][(int)age];
           fprintf(ficresstdeij," %9.4f (%.4f)", eij[i][j][(int)age], sqrt(varhe[(j-1)*nlstate+i][(j-1)*nlstate+i][(int)age]) );
         }
         fprintf(ficresstdeij," %9.4f (%.4f)", eip, sqrt(vip));
       }
       fprintf(ficresstdeij,"\n");
   
       fprintf(ficrescveij,"%3.0f",age );
       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
         for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
           cptj= (j-1)*nlstate+i;
           for(i2=1; i2<=nlstate;i2++)
             for(j2=1; j2<=nlstate;j2++){
               cptj2= (j2-1)*nlstate+i2;
               if(cptj2 <= cptj)
                 fprintf(ficrescveij," %.4f", varhe[cptj][cptj2][(int)age]);
             }
         }
       fprintf(ficrescveij,"\n");
      
     }
     free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
     free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
     free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate*nlstate);
     free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
     free_ma3x(p3matm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
     free_ma3x(p3matp,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
     printf("\n");
     fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
   
     free_vector(xm,1,npar);
     free_vector(xp,1,npar);
     free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
     free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate);
     free_ma3x(varhe,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
   }
   
   /************ Variance ******************/
   void varevsij(char optionfilefiname[], double ***vareij, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij, int estepm, int cptcov, int cptcod, int popbased, int mobilav, char strstart[])
   {
     /* Variance of health expectancies */
     /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double ** savm,double ftolpl);*/
     /* double **newm;*/
     /* int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav)*/
     
     int movingaverage();
     double **dnewm,**doldm;
     double **dnewmp,**doldmp;
     int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm ;
     int k;
     double *xp;
     double **gp, **gm;  /* for var eij */
     double ***gradg, ***trgradg; /*for var eij */
     double **gradgp, **trgradgp; /* for var p point j */
     double *gpp, *gmp; /* for var p point j */
     double **varppt; /* for var p point j nlstate to nlstate+ndeath */
     double ***p3mat;
     double age,agelim, hf;
     double ***mobaverage;
     int theta;
     char digit[4];
     char digitp[25];
   
     char fileresprobmorprev[FILENAMELENGTH];
   
     if(popbased==1){
       if(mobilav!=0)
         strcpy(digitp,"-populbased-mobilav-");
       else strcpy(digitp,"-populbased-nomobil-");
     }
     else 
       strcpy(digitp,"-stablbased-");
   
     if (mobilav!=0) {
       mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
       if (movingaverage(probs, bage, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
         fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
         printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
       }
     }
   
     strcpy(fileresprobmorprev,"prmorprev"); 
     sprintf(digit,"%-d",ij);
     /*printf("DIGIT=%s, ij=%d ijr=%-d|\n",digit, ij,ij);*/
     strcat(fileresprobmorprev,digit); /* Tvar to be done */
     strcat(fileresprobmorprev,digitp); /* Popbased or not, mobilav or not */
     strcat(fileresprobmorprev,fileres);
     if((ficresprobmorprev=fopen(fileresprobmorprev,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobmorprev);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobmorprev);
     }
     printf("Computing total mortality p.j=w1*p1j+w2*p2j+..: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobmorprev);
    
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing total mortality p.j=w1*p1j+w2*p2j+..: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobmorprev);
     pstamp(ficresprobmorprev);
     fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"# probabilities of dying before estepm=%d months for people of exact age and weighted probabilities w1*p1j+w2*p2j+... stand dev in()\n",estepm);
     fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"# Age cov=%-d",ij);
     for(j=nlstate+1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
       fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," p.%-d SE",j);
       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
         fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," w%1d p%-d%-d",i,i,j);
     }  
     fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"\n");
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Routine varevsij");
     /* fprintf(fichtm, "#Local time at start: %s", strstart);*/
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> Computing probabilities of dying over estepm months as a weighted average (i.e global mortality independent of initial healh state)</h4></li>\n");
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>%s  <br>\n",digitp);
   /*   } */
     varppt = matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
     pstamp(ficresvij);
     fprintf(ficresvij,"# Variance and covariance of health expectancies e.j \n#  (weighted average of eij where weights are ");
     if(popbased==1)
       fprintf(ficresvij,"the age specific prevalence observed (cross-sectionally) in the population i.e cross-sectionally\n in each health state (popbased=1) (mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
     else
       fprintf(ficresvij,"the age specific period (stable) prevalences in each health state \n");
     fprintf(ficresvij,"# Age");
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
         fprintf(ficresvij," Cov(e.%1d, e.%1d)",i,j);
     fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
   
     xp=vector(1,npar);
     dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
     doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
     dnewmp= matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar);
     doldmp= matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
   
     gradgp=matrix(1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
     gpp=vector(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
     gmp=vector(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
     trgradgp =matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar); /* mu or p point j*/
     
     if(estepm < stepm){
       printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
     }
     else  hstepm=estepm;   
     /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
     /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm. 
        nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim 
        nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin. 
        Look at function hpijx to understand why (it is linked to memory size questions) */
     /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
        survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
        means that if the survival funtion is printed every two years of age and if
        you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same 
        results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.
     */
     hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */ 
     agelim = AGESUP;
     for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
       nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */ 
       nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
       p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
       gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
       gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
       gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
   
   
       for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
         for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient x + delta*/
           xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
         }
         hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
         prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
   
         if (popbased==1) {
           if(mobilav ==0){
             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
               prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
           }else{ /* mobilav */ 
             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
               prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
           }
         }
     
         for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
           for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
             for(i=1, gp[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
               gp[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
           }
         }
         /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
            computed over hstepm matrices product = hstepm*stepm months) 
            as a weighted average of prlim.
         */
         for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
           for(i=1,gpp[j]=0.; i<= nlstate; i++)
             gpp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
         }    
         /* end probability of death */
   
         for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient x - delta */
           xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
         hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
         prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
    
         if (popbased==1) {
           if(mobilav ==0){
             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
               prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
           }else{ /* mobilav */ 
             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
               prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
           }
         }
   
         for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){  /* Sum of wi * eij = e.j */
           for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
             for(i=1, gm[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
               gm[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
           }
         }
         /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
            computed over hstepm matrices product = hstepm*stepm months) 
            as a weighted average of prlim.
         */
         for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
           for(i=1,gmp[j]=0.; i<= nlstate; i++)
            gmp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
         }    
         /* end probability of death */
   
         for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++) /* vareij */
           for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
             gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];
           }
   
         for(j=nlstate+1; j<= nlstate+ndeath; j++){ /* var mu */
           gradgp[theta][j]= (gpp[j]-gmp[j])/2./delti[theta];
         }
   
       } /* End theta */
   
       trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar); /* veij */
   
       for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++) /* veij */
         for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
           for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
             trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];
   
       for(j=nlstate+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) /* mu */
         for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
           trgradgp[j][theta]=gradgp[theta][j];
     
   
       hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
         for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
           vareij[i][j][(int)age] =0.;
   
       for(h=0;h<=nhstepm;h++){
         for(k=0;k<=nhstepm;k++){
           matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
           matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg[k]);
           for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
             for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
               vareij[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j]*hf*hf;
         }
       }
     
       /* pptj */
       matprod2(dnewmp,trgradgp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
       matprod2(doldmp,dnewmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,gradgp);
       for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
         for(i=nlstate+1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)
           varppt[j][i]=doldmp[j][i];
       /* end ppptj */
       /*  x centered again */
       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,x,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
    
       if (popbased==1) {
         if(mobilav ==0){
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
             prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
         }else{ /* mobilav */ 
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
             prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
         }
       }
                
       /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
          computed over hstepm (estepm) matrices product = hstepm*stepm months) 
          as a weighted average of prlim.
       */
       for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
         for(i=1,gmp[j]=0.;i<= nlstate; i++) 
           gmp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1]; 
       }    
       /* end probability of death */
   
       fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"%3d %d ",(int) age, ij);
       for(j=nlstate+1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
         fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," %11.3e %11.3e",gmp[j], sqrt(varppt[j][j]));
         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
           fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," %11.3e %11.3e ",prlim[i][i],p3mat[i][j][1]);
         }
       } 
       fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"\n");
   
       fprintf(ficresvij,"%.0f ",age );
       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
         for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
           fprintf(ficresvij," %.4f", vareij[i][j][(int)age]);
         }
       fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
       free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
       free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
       free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
       free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
       free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
     } /* End age */
     free_vector(gpp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
     free_vector(gmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
     free_matrix(gradgp,1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
     free_matrix(trgradgp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar); /* mu or p point j*/
     fprintf(ficgp,"\nunset parametric;unset label; set ter png small size 320, 240");
     /* for(j=nlstate+1; j<= nlstate+ndeath; j++){ *//* Only the first actually */
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n set log y; unset log x;set xlabel \"Age\"; set ylabel \"Force of mortality (year-1)\";");
   /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n plot \"%s\"  u 1:($3*%6.3f) not w l 1 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
   /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)*%6.3f) t \"95\%% interval\" w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
   /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)*%6.3f) not w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n plot \"%s\"  u 1:($3) not w l lt 1 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)) t \"95%% interval\" w l lt 2 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)) not w l lt 2 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> File (multiple files are possible if covariates are present): <A href=\"%s\">%s</a>\n",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev),subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> Probability is computed over estepm=%d months. <br> <img src=\"%s%s.png\"> <br>\n", estepm,subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"varmuptjgr",digitp),digit);
     /*  fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> Probability is computed over estepm=%d months and then divided by estepm and multiplied by %.0f in order to have the probability to die over a year <br> <img src=\"varmuptjgr%s%s.png\"> <br>\n", stepm,YEARM,digitp,digit);
   */
   /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"varmuptjgr%s%s%s.png\";replot;",digitp,optionfilefiname,digit); */
     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%s.png\";replot;\n",subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"varmuptjgr",digitp),digit);
   
     free_vector(xp,1,npar);
     free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
     free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
     free_matrix(doldmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
     free_matrix(dnewmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar);
     free_matrix(varppt,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
     if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     fclose(ficresprobmorprev);
     fflush(ficgp);
     fflush(fichtm); 
   }  /* end varevsij */
   
   /************ Variance of prevlim ******************/
   void varprevlim(char fileres[], double **varpl, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij, char strstart[])
   {
     /* Variance of prevalence limit */
     /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double **savm,double ftolpl);*/
   
     double **dnewm,**doldm;
     int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm;
     double *xp;
     double *gp, *gm;
     double **gradg, **trgradg;
     double age,agelim;
     int theta;
     
     pstamp(ficresvpl);
     fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Standard deviation of period (stable) prevalences \n");
     fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Age");
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
         fprintf(ficresvpl," %1d-%1d",i,i);
     fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
   
     xp=vector(1,npar);
     dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
     doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
     
     hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
     hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */ 
     agelim = AGESUP;
     for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
       nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */ 
       if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;
       nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */
       gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);
       gp=vector(1,nlstate);
       gm=vector(1,nlstate);
   
       for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
         for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */
           xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
         }
         prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
         for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
           gp[i] = prlim[i][i];
       
         for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */
           xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
         prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
         for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
           gm[i] = prlim[i][i];
   
         for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
           gradg[theta][i]= (gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];
       } /* End theta */
   
       trgradg =matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
   
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
         for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
           trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
   
       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
         varpl[i][(int)age] =0.;
       matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
       matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);
       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
         varpl[i][(int)age] = doldm[i][i]; /* Covariances are useless */
   
       fprintf(ficresvpl,"%.0f ",age );
       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
         fprintf(ficresvpl," %.5f (%.5f)",prlim[i][i],sqrt(varpl[i][(int)age]));
       fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
       free_vector(gp,1,nlstate);
       free_vector(gm,1,nlstate);
       free_matrix(gradg,1,npar,1,nlstate);
       free_matrix(trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar);
     } /* End age */
   
     free_vector(xp,1,npar);
     free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
     free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
   
   }
   
   /************ Variance of one-step probabilities  ******************/
   void varprob(char optionfilefiname[], double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, double bage, double fage, int ij, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax, char strstart[])
   {
     int i, j=0,  k1, l1, tj;
     int k2, l2, j1,  z1;
     int k=0, l;
     int first=1, first1, first2;
     double cv12, mu1, mu2, lc1, lc2, v12, v21, v11, v22,v1,v2, c12, tnalp;
     double **dnewm,**doldm;
     double *xp;
     double *gp, *gm;
     double **gradg, **trgradg;
     double **mu;
     double age, cov[NCOVMAX+1];
     double std=2.0; /* Number of standard deviation wide of confidence ellipsoids */
     int theta;
     char fileresprob[FILENAMELENGTH];
     char fileresprobcov[FILENAMELENGTH];
     char fileresprobcor[FILENAMELENGTH];
     double ***varpij;
   
     strcpy(fileresprob,"prob"); 
     strcat(fileresprob,fileres);
     if((ficresprob=fopen(fileresprob,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
     }
     strcpy(fileresprobcov,"probcov"); 
     strcat(fileresprobcov,fileres);
     if((ficresprobcov=fopen(fileresprobcov,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
     }
     strcpy(fileresprobcor,"probcor"); 
     strcat(fileresprobcor,fileres);
     if((ficresprobcor=fopen(fileresprobcor,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
     }
     printf("Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
     printf("Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
     printf("and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
     fprintf(ficlog,"and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
     pstamp(ficresprob);
     fprintf(ficresprob,"#One-step probabilities and stand. devi in ()\n");
     fprintf(ficresprob,"# Age");
     pstamp(ficresprobcov);
     fprintf(ficresprobcov,"#One-step probabilities and covariance matrix\n");
     fprintf(ficresprobcov,"# Age");
     pstamp(ficresprobcor);
     fprintf(ficresprobcor,"#One-step probabilities and correlation matrix\n");
     fprintf(ficresprobcor,"# Age");
   
   
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
       for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
         fprintf(ficresprob," p%1d-%1d (SE)",i,j);
         fprintf(ficresprobcov," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);
         fprintf(ficresprobcor," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);
       }  
    /* fprintf(ficresprob,"\n");
     fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n");
     fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n");
    */
     xp=vector(1,npar);
     dnewm=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
     doldm=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
     mu=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath), (int) bage, (int)fage);
     varpij=ma3x(1,nlstate*(nlstate+ndeath),1,nlstate*(nlstate+ndeath),(int) bage, (int) fage);
     first=1;
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Routine varprob");
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> Computing and drawing one step probabilities with their confidence intervals</h4></li>\n");
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n");
   
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> <a href=\"%s\">Matrix of variance-covariance of pairs of step probabilities (drawings)</a></h4></li>\n",optionfilehtmcov);
     fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<h4>Matrix of variance-covariance of pairs of step probabilities</h4>\n\
     file %s<br>\n",optionfilehtmcov);
     fprintf(fichtmcov,"\nEllipsoids of confidence centered on point (p<inf>ij</inf>, p<inf>kl</inf>) are estimated\
   and drawn. It helps understanding how is the covariance between two incidences.\
    They are expressed in year<sup>-1</sup> in order to be less dependent of stepm.<br>\n");
     fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br> Contour plot corresponding to x'cov<sup>-1</sup>x = 4 (where x is the column vector (pij,pkl)) are drawn. \
   It can be understood this way: if pij and pkl where uncorrelated the (2x2) matrix of covariance \
   would have been (1/(var pij), 0 , 0, 1/(var pkl)), and the confidence interval would be 2 \
   standard deviations wide on each axis. <br>\
    Now, if both incidences are correlated (usual case) we diagonalised the inverse of the covariance matrix\
    and made the appropriate rotation to look at the uncorrelated principal directions.<br>\
   To be simple, these graphs help to understand the significativity of each parameter in relation to a second other one.<br> \n");
   
     cov[1]=1;
     /* tj=cptcoveff; */
     tj = (int) pow(2,cptcoveff);
     if (cptcovn<1) {tj=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
     j1=0;
     for(j1=1; j1<=tj;j1++){
       /*for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[t];i1++){ */
       /*j1++;*/
         if  (cptcovn>0) {
           fprintf(ficresprob, "\n#********** Variable "); 
           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprob, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
           fprintf(ficresprob, "**********\n#\n");
           fprintf(ficresprobcov, "\n#********** Variable "); 
           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprobcov, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
           fprintf(ficresprobcov, "**********\n#\n");
           
           fprintf(ficgp, "\n#********** Variable "); 
           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficgp, " V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
           fprintf(ficgp, "**********\n#\n");
           
           
           fprintf(fichtmcov, "\n<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">********** Variable "); 
           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(fichtm, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
           fprintf(fichtmcov, "**********\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
           
           fprintf(ficresprobcor, "\n#********** Variable ");    
           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprobcor, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
           fprintf(ficresprobcor, "**********\n#");    
         }
         
         gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
         trgradg=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
         gp=vector(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
         gm=vector(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
         for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ 
           cov[2]=age;
           if(nagesqr==1)
             cov[3]= age*age;
           for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {
             cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[j1][Tvar[k]]];/* j1 1 2 3 4
                                                            * 1  1 1 1 1
                                                            * 2  2 1 1 1
                                                            * 3  1 2 1 1
                                                            */
             /* nbcode[1][1]=0 nbcode[1][2]=1;*/
           }
           /* for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2]; */
           for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=nbcode[Tvar[Tage[k]]][codtab[ij][Tvar[Tage[k]]]]*cov[2];
           for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)
             cov[2+nagesqr+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];
           
       
           for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
             for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
               xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:(double)0);
             
             pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
             
             k=0;
             for(i=1; i<= (nlstate); i++){
               for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
                 k=k+1;
                 gp[k]=pmmij[i][j];
               }
             }
             
             for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
               xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:(double)0);
       
             pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
             k=0;
             for(i=1; i<=(nlstate); i++){
               for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
                 k=k+1;
                 gm[k]=pmmij[i][j];
               }
             }
        
             for(i=1; i<= (nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath); i++) 
               gradg[theta][i]=(gp[i]-gm[i])/(double)2./delti[theta];  
           }
   
           for(j=1; j<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)
             for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
               trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
           
           matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar,1,npar,matcov); 
           matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),gradg);
   
           pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate);
           
           k=0;
           for(i=1; i<=(nlstate); i++){
             for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
               k=k+1;
               mu[k][(int) age]=pmmij[i][j];
             }
           }
           for(i=1;i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++)
             for(j=1;j<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)
               varpij[i][j][(int)age] = doldm[i][j];
   
           /*printf("\n%d ",(int)age);
             for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++){
             printf("%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));
             fprintf(ficlog,"%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));
             }*/
   
           fprintf(ficresprob,"\n%d ",(int)age);
           fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n%d ",(int)age);
           fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n%d ",(int)age);
   
           for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++)
             fprintf(ficresprob,"%11.3e (%11.3e) ",mu[i][(int) age],sqrt(varpij[i][i][(int)age]));
           for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++){
             fprintf(ficresprobcov,"%11.3e ",mu[i][(int) age]);
             fprintf(ficresprobcor,"%11.3e ",mu[i][(int) age]);
           }
           i=0;
           for (k=1; k<=(nlstate);k++){
             for (l=1; l<=(nlstate+ndeath);l++){ 
               i++;
               fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n%d %d-%d",(int)age,k,l);
               fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n%d %d-%d",(int)age,k,l);
               for (j=1; j<=i;j++){
                 /* printf(" k=%d l=%d i=%d j=%d\n",k,l,i,j);fflush(stdout); */
                 fprintf(ficresprobcov," %11.3e",varpij[i][j][(int)age]);
                 fprintf(ficresprobcor," %11.3e",varpij[i][j][(int) age]/sqrt(varpij[i][i][(int) age])/sqrt(varpij[j][j][(int)age]));
               }
             }
           }/* end of loop for state */
         } /* end of loop for age */
         free_vector(gp,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
         free_vector(gm,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
         free_matrix(trgradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
         free_matrix(gradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
         
         /* Confidence intervalle of pij  */
         /*
           fprintf(ficgp,"\nunset parametric;unset label");
           fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;unset log x; set xlabel \"Age\";set ylabel \"probability (year-1)\"");
           fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65");
           fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>Probability with  confidence intervals expressed in year<sup>-1</sup> :<a href=\"pijgr%s.png\">pijgr%s.png</A>, ",optionfilefiname,optionfilefiname);
           fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br><img src=\"pijgr%s.png\"> ",optionfilefiname);
           fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"pijgr%s.png\"",optionfilefiname);
           fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",k1,k2,xfilevarprob);
         */
   
         /* Drawing ellipsoids of confidence of two variables p(k1-l1,k2-l2)*/
         first1=1;first2=2;
         for (k2=1; k2<=(nlstate);k2++){
           for (l2=1; l2<=(nlstate+ndeath);l2++){ 
             if(l2==k2) continue;
             j=(k2-1)*(nlstate+ndeath)+l2;
             for (k1=1; k1<=(nlstate);k1++){
               for (l1=1; l1<=(nlstate+ndeath);l1++){ 
                 if(l1==k1) continue;
                 i=(k1-1)*(nlstate+ndeath)+l1;
                 if(i<=j) continue;
                 for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ 
                   if ((int)age %5==0){
                     v1=varpij[i][i][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
                     v2=varpij[j][j][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
                     cv12=varpij[i][j][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
                     mu1=mu[i][(int) age]/stepm*YEARM ;
                     mu2=mu[j][(int) age]/stepm*YEARM;
                     c12=cv12/sqrt(v1*v2);
                     /* Computing eigen value of matrix of covariance */
                     lc1=((v1+v2)+sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;
                     lc2=((v1+v2)-sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;
                     if ((lc2 <0) || (lc1 <0) ){
                       if(first2==1){
                         first1=0;
                       printf("Strange: j1=%d One eigen value of 2x2 matrix of covariance is negative, lc1=%11.3e, lc2=%11.3e, v1=%11.3e, v2=%11.3e, cv12=%11.3e.\n It means that the matrix was not well estimated (varpij), for i=%2d, j=%2d, age=%4d .\n See files %s and %s. Probably WRONG RESULTS. See log file for details...\n", j1, lc1, lc2, v1, v2, cv12, i, j, (int)age,fileresprobcov, fileresprobcor);
                       }
                       fprintf(ficlog,"Strange: j1=%d One eigen value of 2x2 matrix of covariance is negative, lc1=%11.3e, lc2=%11.3e, v1=%11.3e, v2=%11.3e, cv12=%11.3e.\n It means that the matrix was not well estimated (varpij), for i=%2d, j=%2d, age=%4d .\n See files %s and %s. Probably WRONG RESULTS.\n", j1, lc1, lc2, v1, v2, cv12, i, j, (int)age,fileresprobcov, fileresprobcor);fflush(ficlog);
                       /* lc1=fabs(lc1); */ /* If we want to have them positive */
                       /* lc2=fabs(lc2); */
                     }
   
                     /* Eigen vectors */
                     v11=(1./sqrt(1+(v1-lc1)*(v1-lc1)/cv12/cv12));
                     /*v21=sqrt(1.-v11*v11); *//* error */
                     v21=(lc1-v1)/cv12*v11;
                     v12=-v21;
                     v22=v11;
                     tnalp=v21/v11;
                     if(first1==1){
                       first1=0;
                       printf("%d %d%d-%d%d mu %.4e %.4e Var %.4e %.4e cor %.3f cov %.4e Eig %.3e %.3e 1stv %.3f %.3f tang %.3f\nOthers in log...\n",(int) age,k1,l1,k2,l2,mu1,mu2,v1,v2,c12,cv12,lc1,lc2,v11,v21,tnalp);
                     }
                     fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d%d-%d%d mu %.4e %.4e Var %.4e %.4e cor %.3f cov %.4e Eig %.3e %.3e 1stv %.3f %.3f tan %.3f\n",(int) age,k1,l1,k2,l2,mu1,mu2,v1,v2,c12,cv12,lc1,lc2,v11,v21,tnalp);
                     /*printf(fignu*/
                     /* mu1+ v11*lc1*cost + v12*lc2*sin(t) */
                     /* mu2+ v21*lc1*cost + v22*lc2*sin(t) */
                     if(first==1){
                       first=0;
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset parametric;unset label");
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;set log x; set xlabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\";set ylabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\"",k1,l1,k2,l2);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small size 320, 240");
                       fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br>Ellipsoids of confidence cov(p%1d%1d,p%1d%1d) expressed in year<sup>-1</sup>\
    :<a href=\"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\">\
   %s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png</A>, ",k1,l1,k2,l2,\
                               subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2,\
                               subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
                       fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br><img src=\"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\"> ",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
                       fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br> Correlation at age %d (%.3f),",(int) age, c12);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\"",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu1,mu2);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k1,l1,k2,l2);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot [-pi:pi] %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not",\
                               mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(lc2),\
                               mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v22,sqrt(lc2));
                     }else{
                       first=0;
                       fprintf(fichtmcov," %d (%.3f),",(int) age, c12);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k1,l1,k2,l2);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu1,mu2);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nreplot %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not",\
                               mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(lc2),\
                               mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v22,sqrt(lc2));
                     }/* if first */
                   } /* age mod 5 */
                 } /* end loop age */
                 fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\";replot;",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
                 first=1;
               } /*l12 */
             } /* k12 */
           } /*l1 */
         }/* k1 */
         /* } */ /* loop covariates */
     }
     free_ma3x(varpij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) bage, (int)fage);
     free_matrix(mu,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),(int) bage, (int)fage);
     free_matrix(doldm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
     free_matrix(dnewm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
     free_vector(xp,1,npar);
     fclose(ficresprob);
     fclose(ficresprobcov);
     fclose(ficresprobcor);
     fflush(ficgp);
     fflush(fichtmcov);
   }
   
   
   /******************* Printing html file ***********/
   void printinghtml(char fileres[], char title[], char datafile[], int firstpass, \
                     int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[],\
                     int imx,int jmin, int jmax, double jmeanint,char rfileres[],\
                     int popforecast, int estepm ,\
                     double jprev1, double mprev1,double anprev1, \
                     double jprev2, double mprev2,double anprev2){
     int jj1, k1, i1, cpt;
   
      fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><a href='#firstorder'>Result files (first order: no variance)</a>\n \
      <li><a href='#secondorder'>Result files (second order (variance)</a>\n \
   </ul>");
      fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><h4><a name='firstorder'>Result files (first order: no variance)</a></h4>\n \
    - Observed prevalence in each state (during the period defined between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n ",
              jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,subdirf2(fileres,"p"),subdirf2(fileres,"p"));
      fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Estimated transition probabilities over %d (stepm) months: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n ",
              stepm,subdirf2(fileres,"pij"),subdirf2(fileres,"pij"));
      fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Period (stable) prevalence in each health state: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
              subdirf2(fileres,"pl"),subdirf2(fileres,"pl"));
      fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - (a) Life expectancies by health status at initial age, ei. (b) health expectancies by health status at initial age, eij . If one or more covariates are included, specific tables for each value of the covariate are output in sequences within the same file (estepm=%2d months): \
      <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
              estepm,subdirf2(fileres,"e"),subdirf2(fileres,"e"));
      fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Population projections by age and states: \
      <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n</li>", subdirf2(fileres,"f"),subdirf2(fileres,"f"));
   
   fprintf(fichtm," \n<ul><li><b>Graphs</b></li><p>");
   
    m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
    if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
   
    jj1=0;
    for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){
      for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
        jj1++;
        if (cptcovn > 0) {
          fprintf(fichtm,"<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">************ Results for covariates");
          for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++) 
            fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtab[jj1][cpt]]);
          fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
        }
        /* Pij */
        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i, %d (stepm) months before: <a href=\"%s%d_1.png\">%s%d_1.png</a><br> \
   <img src=\"%s%d_1.png\">",stepm,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1);     
        /* Quasi-incidences */
        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i %d (stepm) months\
    before but expressed in per year i.e. quasi incidences if stepm is small and probabilities too: <a href=\"%s%d_2.png\">%s%d_2.png</a><br> \
   <img src=\"%s%d_2.png\">",stepm,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1); 
          /* Period (stable) prevalence in each health state */
          for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++){
            fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Convergence to period (stable) prevalence in state %d. Or probability to be in state %d being in state (1 to %d) at different ages. <a href=\"%s%d_%d.png\">%s%d_%d.png</a><br> \
   <img src=\"%s%d_%d.png\">", cpt, cpt, nlstate, subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,jj1);
          }
        for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
           fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Life expectancy by health state (%d) at initial age and its decomposition into health expectancies in each alive state (1 to %d) : <a href=\"%s%d%d.png\">%s%d%d.png</a> <br> \
   <img src=\"%s%d%d.png\">",cpt,nlstate,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,jj1);
        }
      } /* end i1 */
    }/* End k1 */
    fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
   
   
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
   \n<br><li><h4> <a name='secondorder'>Result files (second order: variances)</a></h4>\n\
    - Parameter file with estimated parameters and covariance matrix: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n", rfileres,rfileres);
   
    fprintf(fichtm," - Variance of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
            subdirf2(fileres,"prob"),subdirf2(fileres,"prob"));
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Variance-covariance of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
            subdirf2(fileres,"probcov"),subdirf2(fileres,"probcov"));
   
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
            subdirf2(fileres,"probcor"),subdirf2(fileres,"probcor"));
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Variances and covariances of health expectancies by age and <b>initial health status</b> (cov(e<sup>ij</sup>,e<sup>kl</sup>)(estepm=%2d months): \
      <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n</li>",
              estepm,subdirf2(fileres,"cve"),subdirf2(fileres,"cve"));
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - (a) Health expectancies by health status at initial age (e<sup>ij</sup>) and standard errors (in parentheses) (b) life expectancies and standard errors (e<sup>i.</sup>=e<sup>i1</sup>+e<sup>i2</sup>+...)(estepm=%2d months): \
      <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n</li>",
              estepm,subdirf2(fileres,"stde"),subdirf2(fileres,"stde"));
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Variances and covariances of health expectancies by age. Status (i) based health expectancies (in state j), e<sup>ij</sup> are weighted by the period prevalences in each state i (if popbased=1, an additional computation is done using the cross-sectional prevalences, i.e population based) (estepm=%d months): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n",
            estepm, subdirf2(fileres,"v"),subdirf2(fileres,"v"));
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Total life expectancy and total health expectancies to be spent in each health state e<sup>.j</sup> with their standard errors (if popbased=1, an additional computation is done using the cross-sectional prevalences, i.e population based) (estepm=%d months): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
            estepm, subdirf2(fileres,"t"),subdirf2(fileres,"t"));
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Standard deviation of period (stable) prevalences: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",\
            subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"));
   
   /*  if(popforecast==1) fprintf(fichtm,"\n */
   /*  - Prevalences forecasting: <a href=\"f%s\">f%s</a> <br>\n */
   /*  - Population forecasting (if popforecast=1): <a href=\"pop%s\">pop%s</a> <br>\n */
   /*      <br>",fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres); */
   /*  else  */
   /*    fprintf(fichtm,"\n No population forecast: popforecast = %d (instead of 1) or stepm = %d (instead of 1) or model=%s (instead of .)<br><br></li>\n",popforecast, stepm, model); */
    fflush(fichtm);
    fprintf(fichtm," <ul><li><b>Graphs</b></li><p>");
   
    m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
    if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
   
    jj1=0;
    for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){
      for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
        jj1++;
        if (cptcovn > 0) {
          fprintf(fichtm,"<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">************ Results for covariates");
          for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++) 
            fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtab[jj1][cpt]]);
          fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
        }
        for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
          fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Observed (cross-sectional) and period (incidence based) \
   prevalence (with 95%% confidence interval) in state (%d): %s%d_%d.png <br>\
   <img src=\"%s%d_%d.png\">",cpt,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,jj1);  
        }
        fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Total life expectancy by age and \
   health expectancies in states (1) and (2). If popbased=1 the smooth (due to the model) \
   true period expectancies (those weighted with period prevalences are also\
    drawn in addition to the population based expectancies computed using\
    observed and cahotic prevalences: %s%d.png<br>\
   <img src=\"%s%d.png\">",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),jj1);
      } /* end i1 */
    }/* End k1 */
    fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
    fflush(fichtm);
   }
   
   /******************* Gnuplot file **************/
   void printinggnuplot(char fileres[], char optionfilefiname[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double fage , char pathc[], double p[]){
   
     char dirfileres[132],optfileres[132];
     int cpt=0,k1=0,i=0,k=0,j=0,jk=0,k2=0,k3=0,ij=0,l=0;
     int ng=0;
   /*   if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"a"))==NULL) { */
   /*     printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot); */
   /*     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot); */
   /*   } */
   
     /*#ifdef windows */
     fprintf(ficgp,"cd \"%s\" \n",pathc);
       /*#endif */
     m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
   
     strcpy(dirfileres,optionfilefiname);
     strcpy(optfileres,"vpl");
    /* 1eme*/
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# 1st: Period (stable) prevalence with CI: 'vpl' files\n");
     for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {
       for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { /* plot [100000000000000000000:-100000000000000000000] "mysbiaspar/vplrmysbiaspar.txt to check */
        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d_%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,k1);
        fprintf(ficgp,"\n#set out \"v%s%d_%d.png\" \n",optionfilefiname,cpt,k1);
        fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \n\
   set ylabel \"Probability\" \n\
   set ter png small size 320, 240\n\
   plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"%%lf",ageminpar,fage,subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1);
   
        for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
          if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
          else        fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
        }
        fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"Period (stable) prevalence\" w l lt 0,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+1.96*$3) \"%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1);
        for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
          if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
          else fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
        } 
        fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"95%% CI\" w l lt 1,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-1.96*$3) \"%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1); 
        for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
          if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
          else fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
        }  
        fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l lt 1,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d) t\"Observed prevalence \" w l lt 2",subdirf2(fileres,"p"),k1-1,k1-1,2+4*(cpt-1));
      }
     }
     /*2 eme*/
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# 2nd: Total life expectancy with CI: 't' files\n");
     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { 
       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),k1);
       fprintf(ficgp,"set ylabel \"Years\" \nset ter png small size 320, 240\nplot [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,fage);
       
       for (i=1; i<= nlstate+1 ; i ++) {
         k=2*i;
         fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
         for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
           if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
           else fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
         }   
         if (i== 1) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"TLE\" w l ,");
         else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"LE in state (%d)\" w l ,",i-1);
         fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-$3*2) \"%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
         for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
           if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
           else fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
         }   
         fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l lt 0,");
         fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+$3*2) \"%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
         for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
           if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
           else fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
         }   
         if (i== (nlstate+1)) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l lt 0");
         else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l lt 0,");
       }
     }
     
     /*3eme*/
     
     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { 
       for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {
         /*       k=2+nlstate*(2*cpt-2); */
         k=2+(nlstate+1)*(cpt-1);
         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,k1);
         fprintf(ficgp,"set ter png small size 320, 240\n\
   plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d1\" w l",ageminpar,fage,subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k,cpt);
         /*fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d-2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);
           for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");
           fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);
           fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d+2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);
           for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");
           fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);
           
         */
         for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {
           fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k+i,cpt,i+1);
           /*      fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k+2*i,cpt,i+1);*/
           
         } 
         fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d.\" w l",subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k+nlstate,cpt);
       }
     }
     
     /* CV preval stable (period) */
     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { /* For each multivariate if any */
       for (cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate ; cpt ++) { /* For each life state */
         k=3;
         fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n#\n#CV preval stable (period): 'pij' files, cov=%d state=%d",k1, cpt);
         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d_%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,k1);
         fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \n\
   set ter png small size 320, 240\n\
   unset log y\n\
   plot [%.f:%.f]  ", ageminpar, agemaxpar);
         for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++){
           if(i==1)
             fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\"",subdirf2(fileres,"pij"));
           else
             fprintf(ficgp,", '' ");
           l=(nlstate+ndeath)*(i-1)+1;
           fprintf(ficgp," u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",k1,k+l+(cpt-1),k+l);
           for (j=1; j<= (nlstate-1) ; j ++)
             fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+l+j);
           fprintf(ficgp,")) t \"prev(%d,%d)\" w l",i,cpt);
         } /* nlstate */
         fprintf(ficgp,"\n");
       } /* end cpt state*/ 
     } /* end covariate */  
     
     /* proba elementaires */
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n##############\n#MLE estimated parameters\n#############\n");
     for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
       fprintf(ficgp,"# initial state %d\n",i);
       for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
         if (k != i) {
           fprintf(ficgp,"#   current state %d\n",k);
           for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
             fprintf(ficgp,"p%d=%f; ",jk,p[jk]);
             jk++; 
           }
           fprintf(ficgp,"\n");
         }
       }
      }
     fprintf(ficgp,"##############\n#\n");
   
     /*goto avoid;*/
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n##############\n#Graphics of of probabilities or incidences\n#############\n");
     fprintf(ficgp,"# logi(p12/p11)=a12+b12*age+c12age*age+d12*V1+e12*V1*age\n");
     fprintf(ficgp,"# logi(p12/p11)=p1 +p2*age +p3*age*age+ p4*V1+ p5*V1*age\n");
     fprintf(ficgp,"# logi(p13/p11)=a13+b13*age+c13age*age+d13*V1+e13*V1*age\n");
     fprintf(ficgp,"# logi(p13/p11)=p6 +p7*age +p8*age*age+ p9*V1+ p10*V1*age\n");
     fprintf(ficgp,"# p12+p13+p14+p11=1=p11(1+exp(a12+b12*age+c12age*age+d12*V1+e12*V1*age)\n");
     fprintf(ficgp,"#                      +exp(a13+b13*age+c13age*age+d13*V1+e13*V1*age)+...)\n");
     fprintf(ficgp,"# p11=1/(1+exp(a12+b12*age+c12age*age+d12*V1+e12*V1*age)\n");
     fprintf(ficgp,"#                      +exp(a13+b13*age+c13age*age+d13*V1+e13*V1*age)+...)\n");
     fprintf(ficgp,"# p12=exp(a12+b12*age+c12age*age+d12*V1+e12*V1*age)/\n");
     fprintf(ficgp,"#     (1+exp(a12+b12*age+c12age*age+d12*V1+e12*V1*age)\n");
     fprintf(ficgp,"#       +exp(a13+b13*age+c13age*age+d13*V1+e13*V1*age))\n");
     fprintf(ficgp,"#       +exp(a14+b14*age+c14age*age+d14*V1+e14*V1*age)+...)\n");
     fprintf(ficgp,"#\n");
      for(ng=1; ng<=2;ng++){ /* Number of graphics: first is probabilities second is incidence per year*/
        fprintf(ficgp,"# ng=%d\n",ng);
        fprintf(ficgp,"#   jk=1 to 2^%d=%d\n",cptcoveff,m);
        for(jk=1; jk <=m; jk++) {
          fprintf(ficgp,"#    jk=%d\n",jk);
          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d_%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jk,ng); 
          if (ng==2)
            fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ylabel \"Quasi-incidence per year\"\n");
          else
            fprintf(ficgp,"\nset title \"Probability\"\n");
          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small size 320, 240\nset log y\nplot  [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,agemaxpar);
          i=1;
          for(k2=1; k2<=nlstate; k2++) {
            k3=i;
            for(k=1; k<=(nlstate+ndeath); k++) {
              if (k != k2){
                if(ng==2)
                  if(nagesqr==0)
                    fprintf(ficgp," %f*exp(p%d+p%d*x",YEARM/stepm,i,i+1);
                  else /* nagesqr =1 */
                    fprintf(ficgp," %f*exp(p%d+p%d*x+p%d*x*x",YEARM/stepm,i,i+1,i+1+nagesqr);
                else
                  if(nagesqr==0)
                    fprintf(ficgp," exp(p%d+p%d*x",i,i+1);
                  else /* nagesqr =1 */
                    fprintf(ficgp," exp(p%d+p%d*x+p%d*x*x",i,i+1,i+1+nagesqr);
                ij=1;/* To be checked else nbcode[0][0] wrong */
                for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel-nagesqr; j++) {
                  if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) { /* Bug valgrind */
                    fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",i+j+nagesqr-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);
                    ij++;
                  }
                  else
                    fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",i+j+nagesqr-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);
                }
                fprintf(ficgp,")/(1");
                
                for(k1=1; k1 <=nlstate; k1++){ 
                  if(nagesqr==0)
                    fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1);
                  else /* nagesqr =1 */
                    fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x+p%d*x*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+nagesqr);
     
                  ij=1;
                  for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel-nagesqr; j++){
                    if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {
                      fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2+nagesqr,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);
                      ij++;
                    }
                    else
                      fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2+nagesqr,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);
                  }
                  fprintf(ficgp,")");
                }
                fprintf(ficgp,") t \"p%d%d\" ", k2,k);
                if ((k+k2)!= (nlstate*2+ndeath)) fprintf(ficgp,",");
                i=i+ncovmodel;
              }
            } /* end k */
          } /* end k2 */
        } /* end jk */
      } /* end ng */
    /* avoid: */
      fflush(ficgp); 
   }  /* end gnuplot */
   
   
   /*************** Moving average **************/
   int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav){
   
     int i, cpt, cptcod;
     int modcovmax =1;
     int mobilavrange, mob;
     double age;
   
     modcovmax=2*cptcoveff;/* Max number of modalities. We suppose 
                              a covariate has 2 modalities */
     if (cptcovn<1) modcovmax=1; /* At least 1 pass */
   
     if(mobilav==1||mobilav ==3 ||mobilav==5 ||mobilav== 7){
       if(mobilav==1) mobilavrange=5; /* default */
       else mobilavrange=mobilav;
       for (age=bage; age<=fage; age++)
         for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
           for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=modcovmax;cptcod++)
             mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
       /* We keep the original values on the extreme ages bage, fage and for 
          fage+1 and bage-1 we use a 3 terms moving average; for fage+2 bage+2
          we use a 5 terms etc. until the borders are no more concerned. 
       */ 
       for (mob=3;mob <=mobilavrange;mob=mob+2){
         for (age=bage+(mob-1)/2; age<=fage-(mob-1)/2; age++){
           for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
             for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=modcovmax;cptcod++){
               mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] =probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
                 for (cpt=1;cpt<=(mob-1)/2;cpt++){
                   mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age-cpt][i][cptcod];
                   mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age+cpt][i][cptcod];
                 }
               mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]/mob;
             }
           }
         }/* end age */
       }/* end mob */
     }else return -1;
     return 0;
   }/* End movingaverage */
   
   
   /************** Forecasting ******************/
   void prevforecast(char fileres[], double anproj1, double mproj1, double jproj1, double ageminpar, double agemax, double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double bage, double fage, int firstpass, int lastpass, double anproj2, double p[], int cptcoveff){
     /* proj1, year, month, day of starting projection 
        agemin, agemax range of age
        dateprev1 dateprev2 range of dates during which prevalence is computed
        anproj2 year of en of projection (same day and month as proj1).
     */
     int yearp, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j, k, cptcod, i, h, i1;
     double agec; /* generic age */
     double agelim, ppij, yp,yp1,yp2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean;
     double *popeffectif,*popcount;
     double ***p3mat;
     double ***mobaverage;
     char fileresf[FILENAMELENGTH];
   
     agelim=AGESUP;
     prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
    
     strcpy(fileresf,"f"); 
     strcat(fileresf,fileres);
     if((ficresf=fopen(fileresf,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);
     }
     printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);
   
     if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
   
     if (mobilav!=0) {
       mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
       if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
         fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
         printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
       }
     }
   
     stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
     if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;
     if(estepm < stepm){
       printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
     }
     else  hstepm=estepm;   
   
     hstepm=hstepm/stepm; 
     yp1=modf(dateintmean,&yp);/* extracts integral of datemean in yp  and
                                  fractional in yp1 */
     anprojmean=yp;
     yp2=modf((yp1*12),&yp);
     mprojmean=yp;
     yp1=modf((yp2*30.5),&yp);
     jprojmean=yp;
     if(jprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;
     if(mprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;
   
     i1=cptcoveff;
     if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
     
     fprintf(ficresf,"# Mean day of interviews %.lf/%.lf/%.lf (%.2f) between %.2f and %.2f \n",jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean,dateintmean,dateprev1,dateprev2); 
     
     fprintf(ficresf,"#****** Routine prevforecast **\n");
   
   /*            if (h==(int)(YEARM*yearp)){ */
     for(cptcov=1, k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
       for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){
         k=k+1;
         fprintf(ficresf,"\n#******");
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
           fprintf(ficresf," V%d=%d, hpijx=probability over h years, hp.jx is weighted by observed prev ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
         }
         fprintf(ficresf,"******\n");
         fprintf(ficresf,"# Covariate valuofcovar yearproj age");
         for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){ 
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)              
             fprintf(ficresf," p%d%d",i,j);
           fprintf(ficresf," p.%d",j);
         }
         for (yearp=0; yearp<=(anproj2-anproj1);yearp +=stepsize) { 
           fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
           fprintf(ficresf,"\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1+yearp);   
   
           for (agec=fage; agec>=(ageminpar-1); agec--){ 
             nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agec)*YEARM/stepm); 
             nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; 
             p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
             oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
             hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agec,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
           
             for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
               if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm ==yearp) {
                 fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
                 for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
                   fprintf(ficresf,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
                 fprintf(ficresf,"%.f %.f ",anproj1+yearp,agec+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
               } 
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
                 ppij=0.;
                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {
                   if (mobilav==1) 
                     ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agec][i][cptcod];
                   else {
                     ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agec)][i][cptcod];
                   }
                   if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm== yearp) {
                     fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", p3mat[i][j][h]);
                   }
                 } /* end i */
                 if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm==yearp) {
                   fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", ppij);
                 }
               }/* end j */
             } /* end h */
             free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           } /* end agec */
         } /* end yearp */
       } /* end cptcod */
     } /* end  cptcov */
          
     if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
   
     fclose(ficresf);
   }
   
   /************** Forecasting *****not tested NB*************/
   void populforecast(char fileres[], double anpyram,double mpyram,double jpyram,double ageminpar, double agemax,double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double agedeb, double fage, int popforecast, char popfile[], double anpyram1,double p[], int i2){
     
     int cpt, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j,k,c, cptcod, i,h;
     int *popage;
     double calagedatem, agelim, kk1, kk2;
     double *popeffectif,*popcount;
     double ***p3mat,***tabpop,***tabpopprev;
     double ***mobaverage;
     char filerespop[FILENAMELENGTH];
   
     tabpop= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     tabpopprev= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     agelim=AGESUP;
     calagedatem=(anpyram+mpyram/12.+jpyram/365.-dateintmean)*YEARM;
     
     prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
     
     
     strcpy(filerespop,"pop"); 
     strcat(filerespop,fileres);
     if((ficrespop=fopen(filerespop,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", filerespop);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", filerespop);
     }
     printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", filerespop);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", filerespop);
   
     if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
   
     if (mobilav!=0) {
       mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
       if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
         fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
         printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
       }
     }
   
     stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
     if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;
     
     agelim=AGESUP;
     
     hstepm=1;
     hstepm=hstepm/stepm; 
     
     if (popforecast==1) {
       if((ficpop=fopen(popfile,"r"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);exit(0);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);exit(0);
       } 
       popage=ivector(0,AGESUP);
       popeffectif=vector(0,AGESUP);
       popcount=vector(0,AGESUP);
       
       i=1;   
       while ((c=fscanf(ficpop,"%d %lf\n",&popage[i],&popcount[i])) != EOF) i=i+1;
      
       imx=i;
       for (i=1; i<imx;i++) popeffectif[popage[i]]=popcount[i];
     }
   
     for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i2;cptcov++){
      for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){
         k=k+1;
         fprintf(ficrespop,"\n#******");
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
           fprintf(ficrespop," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
         }
         fprintf(ficrespop,"******\n");
         fprintf(ficrespop,"# Age");
         for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) fprintf(ficrespop," P.%d",j);
         if (popforecast==1)  fprintf(ficrespop," [Population]");
         
         for (cpt=0; cpt<=0;cpt++) { 
           fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);   
           
           for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedatem %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedatem %12)/12.); agedeb--){ 
             nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); 
             nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; 
             
             p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
             oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
             hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
           
             for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
               if (h==(int) (calagedatem+YEARM*cpt)) {
                 fprintf(ficrespop,"\n %3.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
               } 
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
                 kk1=0.;kk2=0;
                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {              
                   if (mobilav==1) 
                     kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];
                   else {
                     kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agedeb+1)][i][cptcod];
                   }
                 }
                 if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)){
                   tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod]=kk1;
                     /*fprintf(ficrespop," %.3f", kk1);
                       if (popforecast==1) fprintf(ficrespop," [%.f]", kk1*popeffectif[(int)agedeb+1]);*/
                 }
               }
               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
                 kk1=0.;
                   for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
                     kk1= kk1+tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod]; 
                   }
                     tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]=tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]/kk1*popeffectif[(int)(agedeb+(calagedatem+12*cpt)*hstepm/YEARM*stepm-1)];
               }
   
               if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)) for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++) 
                 fprintf(ficrespop," %15.2f",tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb+1)][j][cptcod]);
             }
             free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           }
         }
    
     /******/
   
         for (cpt=1; cpt<=(anpyram1-anpyram);cpt++) { 
           fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);   
           for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedatem %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedatem %12)/12.); agedeb--){ 
             nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); 
             nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; 
             
             p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
             oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
             hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
             for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
               if (h==(int) (calagedatem+YEARM*cpt)) {
                 fprintf(ficresf,"\n %3.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
               } 
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
                 kk1=0.;kk2=0;
                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {              
                   kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*tabpopprev[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];    
                 }
                 if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)) fprintf(ficresf," %15.2f", kk1);        
               }
             }
             free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           }
         }
      } 
     }
    
     if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
   
     if (popforecast==1) {
       free_ivector(popage,0,AGESUP);
       free_vector(popeffectif,0,AGESUP);
       free_vector(popcount,0,AGESUP);
     }
     free_ma3x(tabpop,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     free_ma3x(tabpopprev,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     fclose(ficrespop);
   } /* End of popforecast */
   
   int fileappend(FILE *fichier, char *optionfich)
   {
     if((fichier=fopen(optionfich,"a"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with file: %s\n", optionfich);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with file: %s\n", optionfich);
       return (0);
     }
     fflush(fichier);
     return (1);
   }
   
   
   /**************** function prwizard **********************/
   void prwizard(int ncovmodel, int nlstate, int ndeath,  char model[], FILE *ficparo)
   {
   
     /* Wizard to print covariance matrix template */
   
     char ca[32], cb[32];
     int i,j, k, li, lj, lk, ll, jj, npar, itimes;
     int numlinepar;
   
     printf("# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
     fprintf(ficparo,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
     for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
       jj=0;
       for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
         if(j==i) continue;
         jj++;
         /*ca[0]= k+'a'-1;ca[1]='\0';*/
         printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
         fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i,j);
         for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
           /*        printf(" %lf",param[i][j][k]); */
           /*        fprintf(ficparo," %lf",param[i][j][k]); */
           printf(" 0.");
           fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
         }
         printf("\n");
         fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
       }
     }
     printf("# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
     fprintf(ficparo,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
     npar= (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel; /* Number of parameters*/ 
     for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
       jj=0;
       for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
         if(j==i) continue;
         jj++;
         fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i,j);
         printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
         fflush(stdout);
         for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
           /*      printf(" %le",delti3[i][j][k]); */
           /*      fprintf(ficparo," %le",delti3[i][j][k]); */
           printf(" 0.");
           fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
         }
         numlinepar++;
         printf("\n");
         fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
       }
     }
     printf("# Covariance matrix\n");
   /* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */
   /* # 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n\ */
   /* # 131 Cov(a13,a12) Cov(a13,b12, Var(a13)\n\ */
   /* # 132 Cov(b13,a12) Cov(b13,b12, Cov(b13,a13) Var(b13)\n\ */
   /* # 212 Cov(a21,a12) Cov(a21,b12, Cov(a21,a13) Cov(a21,b13) Var(a21)\n\ */
   /* # 212 Cov(b21,a12) Cov(b21,b12, Cov(b21,a13) Cov(b21,b13) Cov(b21,a21) Var(b21)\n\ */
   /* # 232 Cov(a23,a12) Cov(a23,b12, Cov(a23,a13) Cov(a23,b13) Cov(a23,a21) Cov(a23,b21) Var(a23)\n\ */
   /* # 232 Cov(b23,a12) Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n" */
     fflush(stdout);
     fprintf(ficparo,"# Covariance matrix\n");
     /* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */
     /* # 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n\ */
     /* #   ...\n\ */
     /* # 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n" */
     
     for(itimes=1;itimes<=2;itimes++){
       jj=0;
       for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
         for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
           if(j==i) continue;
           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
             jj++;
             ca[0]= k+'a'-1;ca[1]='\0';
             if(itimes==1){
               printf("#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               fprintf(ficparo,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
             }else{
               printf("%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               /*  printf(" %.5le",matcov[i][j]); */
             }
             ll=0;
             for(li=1;li <=nlstate; li++){
               for(lj=1;lj <=nlstate+ndeath; lj++){
                 if(lj==li) continue;
                 for(lk=1;lk<=ncovmodel;lk++){
                   ll++;
                   if(ll<=jj){
                     cb[0]= lk +'a'-1;cb[1]='\0';
                     if(ll<jj){
                       if(itimes==1){
                         printf(" Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                         fprintf(ficparo," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                       }else{
                         printf(" 0.");
                         fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
                       }
                     }else{
                       if(itimes==1){
                         printf(" Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                         fprintf(ficparo," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                       }else{
                         printf(" 0.");
                         fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
                       }
                     }
                   }
                 } /* end lk */
               } /* end lj */
             } /* end li */
             printf("\n");
             fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
             numlinepar++;
           } /* end k*/
         } /*end j */
       } /* end i */
     } /* end itimes */
   
   } /* end of prwizard */
   /******************* Gompertz Likelihood ******************************/
   double gompertz(double x[])
   { 
     double A,B,L=0.0,sump=0.,num=0.;
     int i,n=0; /* n is the size of the sample */
   
     for (i=0;i<=imx-1 ; i++) {
       sump=sump+weight[i];
       /*    sump=sump+1;*/
       num=num+1;
     }
    
    
     /* for (i=0; i<=imx; i++) 
        if (wav[i]>0) printf("i=%d ageex=%lf agecens=%lf agedc=%lf cens=%d %d\n" ,i,ageexmed[i],agecens[i],agedc[i],cens[i],wav[i]);*/
   
     for (i=1;i<=imx ; i++)
       {
         if (cens[i] == 1 && wav[i]>1)
           A=-x[1]/(x[2])*(exp(x[2]*(agecens[i]-agegomp))-exp(x[2]*(ageexmed[i]-agegomp)));
         
         if (cens[i] == 0 && wav[i]>1)
           A=-x[1]/(x[2])*(exp(x[2]*(agedc[i]-agegomp))-exp(x[2]*(ageexmed[i]-agegomp)))
                +log(x[1]/YEARM)+x[2]*(agedc[i]-agegomp)+log(YEARM);  
         
         /*if (wav[i] > 1 && agecens[i] > 15) {*/ /* ??? */
         if (wav[i] > 1 ) { /* ??? */
           L=L+A*weight[i];
           /*      printf("\ni=%d A=%f L=%lf x[1]=%lf x[2]=%lf ageex=%lf agecens=%lf cens=%d agedc=%lf weight=%lf\n",i,A,L,x[1],x[2],ageexmed[i]*12,agecens[i]*12,cens[i],agedc[i]*12,weight[i]);*/
         }
       }
   
    /*printf("x1=%2.9f x2=%2.9f x3=%2.9f L=%f\n",x[1],x[2],x[3],L);*/
    
     return -2*L*num/sump;
   }
   
   #ifdef GSL
   /******************* Gompertz_f Likelihood ******************************/
   double gompertz_f(const gsl_vector *v, void *params)
   { 
     double A,B,LL=0.0,sump=0.,num=0.;
     double *x= (double *) v->data;
     int i,n=0; /* n is the size of the sample */
   
     for (i=0;i<=imx-1 ; i++) {
       sump=sump+weight[i];
       /*    sump=sump+1;*/
       num=num+1;
     }
    
    
     /* for (i=0; i<=imx; i++) 
        if (wav[i]>0) printf("i=%d ageex=%lf agecens=%lf agedc=%lf cens=%d %d\n" ,i,ageexmed[i],agecens[i],agedc[i],cens[i],wav[i]);*/
     printf("x[0]=%lf x[1]=%lf\n",x[0],x[1]);
     for (i=1;i<=imx ; i++)
       {
         if (cens[i] == 1 && wav[i]>1)
           A=-x[0]/(x[1])*(exp(x[1]*(agecens[i]-agegomp))-exp(x[1]*(ageexmed[i]-agegomp)));
         
         if (cens[i] == 0 && wav[i]>1)
           A=-x[0]/(x[1])*(exp(x[1]*(agedc[i]-agegomp))-exp(x[1]*(ageexmed[i]-agegomp)))
                +log(x[0]/YEARM)+x[1]*(agedc[i]-agegomp)+log(YEARM);  
         
         /*if (wav[i] > 1 && agecens[i] > 15) {*/ /* ??? */
         if (wav[i] > 1 ) { /* ??? */
           LL=LL+A*weight[i];
           /*      printf("\ni=%d A=%f L=%lf x[1]=%lf x[2]=%lf ageex=%lf agecens=%lf cens=%d agedc=%lf weight=%lf\n",i,A,L,x[1],x[2],ageexmed[i]*12,agecens[i]*12,cens[i],agedc[i]*12,weight[i]);*/
         }
       }
   
    /*printf("x1=%2.9f x2=%2.9f x3=%2.9f L=%f\n",x[1],x[2],x[3],L);*/
     printf("x[0]=%lf x[1]=%lf -2*LL*num/sump=%lf\n",x[0],x[1],-2*LL*num/sump);
    
     return -2*LL*num/sump;
   }
   #endif
   
   /******************* Printing html file ***********/
   void printinghtmlmort(char fileres[], char title[], char datafile[], int firstpass, \
                     int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[],\
                     int imx,  double p[],double **matcov,double agemortsup){
     int i,k;
   
     fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><h4>Result files </h4>\n Force of mortality. Parameters of the Gompertz fit (with confidence interval in brackets):<br>");
     fprintf(fichtm,"  mu(age) =%lf*exp(%lf*(age-%d)) per year<br><br>",p[1],p[2],agegomp);
     for (i=1;i<=2;i++) 
       fprintf(fichtm," p[%d] = %lf [%f ; %f]<br>\n",i,p[i],p[i]-2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]),p[i]+2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]));
     fprintf(fichtm,"<br><br><img src=\"graphmort.png\">");
     fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
   
   fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><h4>Life table</h4>\n <br>");
   
    fprintf(fichtm,"\nAge   l<inf>x</inf>     q<inf>x</inf> d(x,x+1)    L<inf>x</inf>     T<inf>x</inf>     e<infx</inf><br>");
   
    for (k=agegomp;k<(agemortsup-2);k++) 
      fprintf(fichtm,"%d %.0lf %lf %.0lf %.0lf %.0lf %lf<br>\n",k,lsurv[k],p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)),(p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)))*lsurv[k],lpop[k],tpop[k],tpop[k]/lsurv[k]);
   
    
     fflush(fichtm);
   }
   
   /******************* Gnuplot file **************/
   void printinggnuplotmort(char fileres[], char optionfilefiname[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double fage , char pathc[], double p[]){
   
     char dirfileres[132],optfileres[132];
   
     int ng;
   
   
     /*#ifdef windows */
     fprintf(ficgp,"cd \"%s\" \n",pathc);
       /*#endif */
   
   
     strcpy(dirfileres,optionfilefiname);
     strcpy(optfileres,"vpl");
     fprintf(ficgp,"set out \"graphmort.png\"\n "); 
     fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\"\n set ylabel \"Force of mortality (per year)\" \n "); 
     fprintf(ficgp, "set ter png small size 320, 240\n set log y\n"); 
     /* fprintf(ficgp, "set size 0.65,0.65\n"); */
     fprintf(ficgp,"plot [%d:100] %lf*exp(%lf*(x-%d))",agegomp,p[1],p[2],agegomp);
   
   } 
   
   int readdata(char datafile[], int firstobs, int lastobs, int *imax)
   {
   
     /*-------- data file ----------*/
     FILE *fic;
     char dummy[]="                         ";
     int i=0, j=0, n=0;
     int linei, month, year,iout;
     char line[MAXLINE], linetmp[MAXLINE];
     char stra[MAXLINE], strb[MAXLINE];
     char *stratrunc;
     int lstra;
   
   
     if((fic=fopen(datafile,"r"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem while opening datafile: %s\n", datafile);return 1;
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem while opening datafile: %s\n", datafile);return 1;
     }
   
     i=1;
     linei=0;
     while ((fgets(line, MAXLINE, fic) != NULL) &&((i >= firstobs) && (i <=lastobs))) {
       linei=linei+1;
       for(j=strlen(line); j>=0;j--){  /* Untabifies line */
         if(line[j] == '\t')
           line[j] = ' ';
       }
       for(j=strlen(line)-1; (line[j]==' ')||(line[j]==10)||(line[j]==13);j--){
         ;
       };
       line[j+1]=0;  /* Trims blanks at end of line */
       if(line[0]=='#'){
         fprintf(ficlog,"Comment line\n%s\n",line);
         printf("Comment line\n%s\n",line);
         continue;
       }
       trimbb(linetmp,line); /* Trims multiple blanks in line */
       strcpy(line, linetmp);
     
   
       for (j=maxwav;j>=1;j--){
         cutv(stra, strb, line, ' '); 
         if(strb[0]=='.') { /* Missing status */
           lval=-1;
         }else{
           errno=0;
           lval=strtol(strb,&endptr,10); 
         /*        if (errno == ERANGE && (lval == LONG_MAX || lval == LONG_MIN))*/
           if( strb[0]=='\0' || (*endptr != '\0')){
             printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a status of wave %d. Setting maxwav=%d might be wrong.  Exiting.\n", strb, linei,i,line,j,maxwav);
             fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a status of wave %d. Setting maxwav=%d might be wrong.  Exiting.\n", strb, linei,i,line,j,maxwav);fflush(ficlog);
             return 1;
           }
         }
         s[j][i]=lval;
         
         strcpy(line,stra);
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' ');
         if( (iout=sscanf(strb,"%d/%d",&month, &year)) != 0){
         }
         else  if( (iout=sscanf(strb,"%s.",dummy)) != 0){
           month=99;
           year=9999;
         }else{
           printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of interview (mm/yyyy or .) at wave %d.  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i, line,j);
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of interview (mm/yyyy or .) at wave %d.  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i, line,j);fflush(ficlog);
           return 1;
         }
         anint[j][i]= (double) year; 
         mint[j][i]= (double)month; 
         strcpy(line,stra);
       } /* ENd Waves */
       
       cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); 
       if( (iout=sscanf(strb,"%d/%d",&month, &year)) != 0){
       }
       else  if( (iout=sscanf(strb,"%s.",dummy)) != 0){
         month=99;
         year=9999;
       }else{
         printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of death (mm/yyyy or .).  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of death (mm/yyyy or .).  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);fflush(ficlog);
           return 1;
       }
       andc[i]=(double) year; 
       moisdc[i]=(double) month; 
       strcpy(line,stra);
       
       cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); 
       if( (iout=sscanf(strb,"%d/%d",&month, &year)) != 0){
       }
       else  if( (iout=sscanf(strb,"%s.", dummy)) != 0){
         month=99;
         year=9999;
       }else{
         printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of birth (mm/yyyy or .).  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of birth (mm/yyyy or .).  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);fflush(ficlog);
           return 1;
       }
       if (year==9999) {
         printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of birth (mm/yyyy) but at least the year of birth should be given.  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%s' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of birth (mm/yyyy) but at least the year of birth should be given. Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);fflush(ficlog);
           return 1;
   
       }
       annais[i]=(double)(year);
       moisnais[i]=(double)(month); 
       strcpy(line,stra);
       
       cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); 
       errno=0;
       dval=strtod(strb,&endptr); 
       if( strb[0]=='\0' || (*endptr != '\0')){
         printf("Error reading data around '%f' at line number %d, \"%s\" for individual %d\nShould be a weight.  Exiting.\n",dval, i,line,linei);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%f' at line number %d, \"%s\" for individual %d\nShould be a weight.  Exiting.\n",dval, i,line,linei);
         fflush(ficlog);
         return 1;
       }
       weight[i]=dval; 
       strcpy(line,stra);
       
       for (j=ncovcol;j>=1;j--){
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); 
         if(strb[0]=='.') { /* Missing status */
           lval=-1;
         }else{
           errno=0;
           lval=strtol(strb,&endptr,10); 
           if( strb[0]=='\0' || (*endptr != '\0')){
             printf("Error reading data around '%ld' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a covariate value (=0 for the reference or 1 for alternative).  Exiting.\n",lval, linei,i, line);
             fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%ld' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a covariate value (=0 for the reference or 1 for alternative).  Exiting.\n",lval, linei,i, line);fflush(ficlog);
             return 1;
           }
         }
         if(lval <-1 || lval >1){
           printf("Error reading data around '%ld' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\n \
    Should be a value of %d(nth) covariate (0 should be the value for the reference and 1\n \
    for the alternative. IMaCh does not build design variables automatically, do it yourself.\n \
    For example, for multinomial values like 1, 2 and 3,\n \
    build V1=0 V2=0 for the reference value (1),\n \
           V1=1 V2=0 for (2) \n \
    and V1=0 V2=1 for (3). V1=1 V2=1 should not exist and the corresponding\n \
    output of IMaCh is often meaningless.\n \
    Exiting.\n",lval,linei, i,line,j);
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error reading data around '%ld' at line number %d for individual %d, '%s'\n \
    Should be a value of %d(nth) covariate (0 should be the value for the reference and 1\n \
    for the alternative. IMaCh does not build design variables automatically, do it yourself.\n \
    For example, for multinomial values like 1, 2 and 3,\n \
    build V1=0 V2=0 for the reference value (1),\n \
           V1=1 V2=0 for (2) \n \
    and V1=0 V2=1 for (3). V1=1 V2=1 should not exist and the corresponding\n \
    output of IMaCh is often meaningless.\n \
    Exiting.\n",lval,linei, i,line,j);fflush(ficlog);
           return 1;
         }
         covar[j][i]=(double)(lval);
         strcpy(line,stra);
       }  
       lstra=strlen(stra);
        
       if(lstra > 9){ /* More than 2**32 or max of what printf can write with %ld */
         stratrunc = &(stra[lstra-9]);
         num[i]=atol(stratrunc);
       }
       else
         num[i]=atol(stra);
       /*if((s[2][i]==2) && (s[3][i]==-1)&&(s[4][i]==9)){
         printf("%ld %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]),weight[i], (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i])); ij=ij+1;}*/
       
       i=i+1;
     } /* End loop reading  data */
   
     *imax=i-1; /* Number of individuals */
     fclose(fic);
    
     return (0);
     /* endread: */
       printf("Exiting readdata: ");
       fclose(fic);
       return (1);
   
   
   
   }
   void removespace(char *str) {
     char *p1 = str, *p2 = str;
     do
       while (*p2 == ' ')
         p2++;
     while (*p1++ == *p2++);
   }
   
   int decodemodel ( char model[], int lastobs) /**< This routine decode the model and returns:
      * Model  V1+V2+V3+V8+V7*V8+V5*V6+V8*age+V3*age+age*age
      * - nagesqr = 1 if age*age in the model, otherwise 0.
      * - cptcovt total number of covariates of the model nbocc(+)+1 = 8 excepting constant and age and age*age
      * - cptcovn or number of covariates k of the models excluding age*products =6 and age*age
      * - cptcovage number of covariates with age*products =2
      * - cptcovs number of simple covariates
      * - Tvar[k] is the id of the kth covariate Tvar[1]@12 {1, 2, 3, 8, 10, 11, 8, 3, 7, 8, 5, 6}, thus Tvar[5=V7*V8]=10
      *     which is a new column after the 9 (ncovcol) variables. 
      * - if k is a product Vn*Vm covar[k][i] is filled with correct values for each individual
      * - Tprod[l] gives the kth covariates of the product Vn*Vm l=1 to cptcovprod-cptcovage
      *    Tprod[1]@2 {5, 6}: position of first product V7*V8 is 5, and second V5*V6 is 6.
      * - Tvard[k]  p Tvard[1][1]@4 {7, 8, 5, 6} for V7*V8 and V5*V6 .
    */
   {
     int i, j, k, ks;
     int  j1, k1, k2;
     char modelsav[80];
     char stra[80], strb[80], strc[80], strd[80],stre[80];
     char *strpt;
   
     /*removespace(model);*/
     if (strlen(model) >1){ /* If there is at least 1 covariate */
       j=0, j1=0, k1=0, k2=-1, ks=0, cptcovn=0;
       if (strstr(model,"AGE") !=0){
         printf("Error. AGE must be in lower case 'age' model=1+age+%s ",model);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Error. AGE must be in lower case model=1+age+%s ",model);fflush(ficlog);
         return 1;
       }
       if (strstr(model,"v") !=0){
         printf("Error. 'v' must be in upper case 'V' model=%s ",model);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Error. 'v' must be in upper case model=%s ",model);fflush(ficlog);
         return 1;
       }
       strcpy(modelsav,model); 
       if ((strpt=strstr(model,"age*age")) !=0){
         printf(" strpt=%s, model=%s\n",strpt, model);
         if(strpt != model){
         printf("Error in model: 'model=%s'; 'age*age' should in first place before other covariates\n \
    'model=1+age+age*age+V1' or 'model=1+age+age*age+V1+V1*age', please swap as well as \n \
    corresponding column of parameters.\n",model);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Error in model: 'model=%s'; 'age*age' should in first place before other covariates\n \
    'model=1+age+age*age+V1' or 'model=1+age+age*age+V1+V1*age', please swap as well as \n \
    corresponding column of parameters.\n",model); fflush(ficlog);
         return 1;
       }
   
         nagesqr=1;
         if (strstr(model,"+age*age") !=0)
           substrchaine(modelsav, model, "+age*age");
         else if (strstr(model,"age*age+") !=0)
           substrchaine(modelsav, model, "age*age+");
         else 
           substrchaine(modelsav, model, "age*age");
       }else
         nagesqr=0;
       if (strlen(modelsav) >1){
         j=nbocc(modelsav,'+'); /**< j=Number of '+' */
         j1=nbocc(modelsav,'*'); /**< j1=Number of '*' */
         cptcovs=j+1-j1; /**<  Number of simple covariates V1+V1*age+V3 +V3*V4+age*age=> V1 + V3 =2  */
         cptcovt= j+1; /* Number of total covariates in the model, not including
                      * cst, age and age*age 
                      * V1+V1*age+ V3 + V3*V4+age*age=> 4*/
                     /* including age products which are counted in cptcovage.
                     * but the covariates which are products must be treated 
                     * separately: ncovn=4- 2=2 (V1+V3). */
         cptcovprod=j1; /**< Number of products  V1*V2 +v3*age = 2 */
         cptcovprodnoage=0; /**< Number of covariate products without age: V3*V4 =1  */
   
       
         /*   Design
          *  V1   V2   V3   V4  V5  V6  V7  V8  V9 Weight
          *  <          ncovcol=8                >
          * Model V2 + V1 + V3*age + V3 + V5*V6 + V7*V8 + V8*age + V8
          *   k=  1    2      3       4     5       6      7        8
          *  cptcovn number of covariates (not including constant and age ) = # of + plus 1 = 7+1=8
          *  covar[k,i], value of kth covariate if not including age for individual i:
          *       covar[1][i]= (V2), covar[4][i]=(V3), covar[8][i]=(V8)
          *  Tvar[k] # of the kth covariate:  Tvar[1]=2  Tvar[4]=3 Tvar[8]=8
          *       if multiplied by age: V3*age Tvar[3=V3*age]=3 (V3) Tvar[7]=8 and 
          *  Tage[++cptcovage]=k
          *       if products, new covar are created after ncovcol with k1
          *  Tvar[k]=ncovcol+k1; # of the kth covariate product:  Tvar[5]=ncovcol+1=10  Tvar[6]=ncovcol+1=11
          *  Tprod[k1]=k; Tprod[1]=5 Tprod[2]= 6; gives the position of the k1th product
          *  Tvard[k1][1]=m Tvard[k1][2]=m; Tvard[1][1]=5 (V5) Tvard[1][2]=6 Tvard[2][1]=7 (V7) Tvard[2][2]=8
          *  Tvar[cptcovn+k2]=Tvard[k1][1];Tvar[cptcovn+k2+1]=Tvard[k1][2];
          *  Tvar[8+1]=5;Tvar[8+2]=6;Tvar[8+3]=7;Tvar[8+4]=8 inverted
          *  V1   V2   V3   V4  V5  V6  V7  V8  V9  V10  V11
          *  <          ncovcol=8                >
          *       Model V2 + V1 + V3*age + V3 + V5*V6 + V7*V8 + V8*age + V8    d1   d1   d2  d2
          *          k=  1    2      3       4     5       6      7        8    9   10   11  12
          *     Tvar[k]= 2    1      3       3    10      11      8        8    5    6    7   8
          * p Tvar[1]@12={2,   1,     3,      3,   11,     10,     8,       8,   7,   8,   5,  6}
          * p Tprod[1]@2={                         6, 5}
          *p Tvard[1][1]@4= {7, 8, 5, 6}
          * covar[k][i]= V2   V1      ?      V3    V5*V6?   V7*V8?  ?       V8   
          *  cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
          *How to reorganize?
          * Model V1 + V2 + V3 + V8 + V5*V6 + V7*V8 + V3*age + V8*age
          * Tvars {2,   1,     3,      3,   11,     10,     8,       8,   7,   8,   5,  6}
          *       {2,   1,     4,      8,    5,      6,     3,       7}
          * Struct []
          */
   
         /* This loop fills the array Tvar from the string 'model'.*/
         /* j is the number of + signs in the model V1+V2+V3 j=2 i=3 to 1 */
         /*   modelsav=V2+V1+V4+age*V3 strb=age*V3 stra=V2+V1+V4  */
         /*        k=4 (age*V3) Tvar[k=4]= 3 (from V3) Tage[cptcovage=1]=4 */
         /*        k=3 V4 Tvar[k=3]= 4 (from V4) */
         /*        k=2 V1 Tvar[k=2]= 1 (from V1) */
         /*        k=1 Tvar[1]=2 (from V2) */
         /*        k=5 Tvar[5] */
         /* for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) { */
         /*        cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]]; */
         /*        } */
         /* for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=nbcode[Tvar[Tage[k]]][codtab[ij][Tvar[Tage[k]]]]*cov[2]; */
         /*
          * Treating invertedly V2+V1+V3*age+V2*V4 is as if written V2*V4 +V3*age + V1 + V2 */
         for(k=cptcovt; k>=1;k--) /**< Number of covariates */
           Tvar[k]=0;
         cptcovage=0;
         for(k=1; k<=cptcovt;k++){ /* Loop on total covariates of the model */
           cutl(stra,strb,modelsav,'+'); /* keeps in strb after the first '+' 
                                            modelsav==V2+V1+V4+V3*age strb=V3*age stra=V2+V1+V4 */ 
           if (nbocc(modelsav,'+')==0) strcpy(strb,modelsav); /* and analyzes it */
           /*      printf("i=%d a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n",i, stra,strb,modelsav);*/
           /*scanf("%d",i);*/
           if (strchr(strb,'*')) {  /**< Model includes a product V2+V1+V4+V3*age strb=V3*age */
             cutl(strc,strd,strb,'*'); /**< strd*strc  Vm*Vn: strb=V3*age(input) strc=age strd=V3 ; V3*V2 strc=V2, strd=V3 */
             if (strcmp(strc,"age")==0) { /**< Model includes age: Vn*age */
               /* covar is not filled and then is empty */
               cptcovprod--;
               cutl(stre,strb,strd,'V'); /* strd=V3(input): stre="3" */
               Tvar[k]=atoi(stre);  /* V2+V1+V4+V3*age Tvar[4]=3 ; V1+V2*age Tvar[2]=2; V1+V1*age Tvar[2]=1 */
               cptcovage++; /* Sums the number of covariates which include age as a product */
               Tage[cptcovage]=k;  /* Tvar[4]=3, Tage[1] = 4 or V1+V1*age Tvar[2]=1, Tage[1]=2 */
               /*printf("stre=%s ", stre);*/
             } else if (strcmp(strd,"age")==0) { /* or age*Vn */
               cptcovprod--;
               cutl(stre,strb,strc,'V');
               Tvar[k]=atoi(stre);
               cptcovage++;
               Tage[cptcovage]=k;
             } else {  /* Age is not in the model product V2+V1+V1*V4+V3*age+V3*V2  strb=V3*V2*/
               /* loops on k1=1 (V3*V2) and k1=2 V4*V3 */
               cptcovn++;
               cptcovprodnoage++;k1++;
               cutl(stre,strb,strc,'V'); /* strc= Vn, stre is n; strb=V3*V2 stre=3 strc=*/
               Tvar[k]=ncovcol+k1; /* For model-covariate k tells which data-covariate to use but
                                      because this model-covariate is a construction we invent a new column
                                      ncovcol + k1
                                      If already ncovcol=4 and model=V2+V1+V1*V4+age*V3+V3*V2
                                      Tvar[3=V1*V4]=4+1 Tvar[5=V3*V2]=4 + 2= 6, etc */
               cutl(strc,strb,strd,'V'); /* strd was Vm, strc is m */
               Tprod[k1]=k;  /* Tprod[1]=3(=V1*V4) for V2+V1+V1*V4+age*V3+V3*V2  */
               Tvard[k1][1] =atoi(strc); /* m 1 for V1*/
               Tvard[k1][2] =atoi(stre); /* n 4 for V4*/
               k2=k2+2;
               Tvar[cptcovt+k2]=Tvard[k1][1]; /* Tvar[(cptcovt=4+k2=1)=5]= 1 (V1) */
               Tvar[cptcovt+k2+1]=Tvard[k1][2];  /* Tvar[(cptcovt=4+(k2=1)+1)=6]= 4 (V4) */
               for (i=1; i<=lastobs;i++){
                 /* Computes the new covariate which is a product of
                    covar[n][i]* covar[m][i] and stores it at ncovol+k1 May not be defined */
                 covar[ncovcol+k1][i]=covar[atoi(stre)][i]*covar[atoi(strc)][i];
               }
             } /* End age is not in the model */
           } /* End if model includes a product */
           else { /* no more sum */
             /*printf("d=%s c=%s b=%s\n", strd,strc,strb);*/
             /*  scanf("%d",i);*/
             cutl(strd,strc,strb,'V');
             ks++; /**< Number of simple covariates */
             cptcovn++;
             Tvar[k]=atoi(strd);
           }
           strcpy(modelsav,stra);  /* modelsav=V2+V1+V4 stra=V2+V1+V4 */ 
           /*printf("a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n", stra,strb,modelsav);
             scanf("%d",i);*/
         } /* end of loop + on total covariates */
       } /* end if strlen(modelsave == 0) age*age might exist */
     } /* end if strlen(model == 0) */
     
     /*The number n of Vn is stored in Tvar. cptcovage =number of age covariate. Tage gives the position of age. cptcovprod= number of products.
       If model=V1+V1*age then Tvar[1]=1 Tvar[2]=1 cptcovage=1 Tage[1]=2 cptcovprod=0*/
   
     /* printf("tvar1=%d tvar2=%d tvar3=%d cptcovage=%d Tage=%d",Tvar[1],Tvar[2],Tvar[3],cptcovage,Tage[1]);
     printf("cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);
     fprintf(ficlog,"cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);
   
     scanf("%d ",i);*/
   
   
     return (0); /* with covar[new additional covariate if product] and Tage if age */ 
     /*endread:*/
       printf("Exiting decodemodel: ");
       return (1);
   }
   
   int calandcheckages(int imx, int maxwav, double *agemin, double *agemax, int *nberr, int *nbwarn )
   {
     int i, m;
   
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
       for(m=2; (m<= maxwav); m++) {
         if (((int)mint[m][i]== 99) && (s[m][i] <= nlstate)){
           anint[m][i]=9999;
           s[m][i]=-1;
         }
         if((int)moisdc[i]==99 && (int)andc[i]==9999 && s[m][i]>nlstate){
           *nberr = *nberr + 1;
           printf("Error! Date of death (month %2d and year %4d) of individual %ld on line %d was unknown, you must set an arbitrary year of death or he/she is skipped and results are biased (%d)\n",(int)moisdc[i],(int)andc[i],num[i],i, *nberr);
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Date of death (month %2d and year %4d) of individual %ld on line %d was unknown, you must set an arbitrary year of death or he/she is skipped and results are biased (%d)\n",(int)moisdc[i],(int)andc[i],num[i],i, *nberr);
           s[m][i]=-1;
         }
         if((int)moisdc[i]==99 && (int)andc[i]!=9999 && s[m][i]>nlstate){
           (*nberr)++;
           printf("Error! Month of death of individual %ld on line %d was unknown %2d, you should set it otherwise the information on the death is skipped and results are biased.\n",num[i],i,(int)moisdc[i]); 
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Month of death of individual %ld on line %d was unknown %f, you should set it otherwise the information on the death is skipped and results are biased.\n",num[i],i,moisdc[i]); 
           s[m][i]=-1; /* We prefer to skip it (and to skip it in version 0.8a1 too */
         }
       }
     }
   
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {
       agedc[i]=(moisdc[i]/12.+andc[i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+annais[i]);
       for(m=firstpass; (m<= lastpass); m++){
         if(s[m][i] >0 || s[m][i]==-2 || s[m][i]==-4 || s[m][i]==-5){
           if (s[m][i] >= nlstate+1) {
             if(agedc[i]>0){
               if((int)moisdc[i]!=99 && (int)andc[i]!=9999){
                 agev[m][i]=agedc[i];
             /*if(moisdc[i]==99 && andc[i]==9999) s[m][i]=-1;*/
               }else {
                 if ((int)andc[i]!=9999){
                   nbwarn++;
                   printf("Warning negative age at death: %ld line:%d\n",num[i],i);
                   fprintf(ficlog,"Warning negative age at death: %ld line:%d\n",num[i],i);
                   agev[m][i]=-1;
                 }
               }
             } /* agedc > 0 */
           }
           else if(s[m][i] !=9){ /* Standard case, age in fractional
                                    years but with the precision of a month */
             agev[m][i]=(mint[m][i]/12.+1./24.+anint[m][i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+1./24.+annais[i]);
             if((int)mint[m][i]==99 || (int)anint[m][i]==9999)
               agev[m][i]=1;
             else if(agev[m][i] < *agemin){ 
               *agemin=agev[m][i];
               printf(" Min anint[%d][%d]=%.2f annais[%d]=%.2f, agemin=%.2f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], *agemin);
             }
             else if(agev[m][i] >*agemax){
               *agemax=agev[m][i];
               /* printf(" Max anint[%d][%d]=%.0f annais[%d]=%.0f, agemax=%.2f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], *agemax);*/
             }
             /*agev[m][i]=anint[m][i]-annais[i];*/
             /*     agev[m][i] = age[i]+2*m;*/
           }
           else { /* =9 */
             agev[m][i]=1;
             s[m][i]=-1;
           }
         }
         else /*= 0 Unknown */
           agev[m][i]=1;
       }
       
     }
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {
       for(m=firstpass; (m<=lastpass); m++){
         if (s[m][i] > (nlstate+ndeath)) {
           (*nberr)++;
           printf("Error: on wave %d of individual %d status %d > (nlstate+ndeath)=(%d+%d)=%d\n",m,i,s[m][i],nlstate, ndeath, nlstate+ndeath);     
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error: on wave %d of individual %d status %d > (nlstate+ndeath)=(%d+%d)=%d\n",m,i,s[m][i],nlstate, ndeath, nlstate+ndeath);     
           return 1;
         }
       }
     }
   
     /*for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
     for (m=firstpass; (m<lastpass); m++){
        printf("%ld %d %.lf %d %d\n", num[i],(covar[1][i]),agev[m][i],s[m][i],s[m+1][i]);
   }
   
   }*/
   
   
     printf("Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx, *agemin, *agemax);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx, *agemin, *agemax); 
   
     return (0);
    /* endread:*/
       printf("Exiting calandcheckages: ");
       return (1);
   }
   
   #if defined(_MSC_VER)
   /*printf("Visual C++ compiler: %s \n;", _MSC_FULL_VER);*/
   /*fprintf(ficlog, "Visual C++ compiler: %s \n;", _MSC_FULL_VER);*/
   //#include "stdafx.h"
   //#include <stdio.h>
   //#include <tchar.h>
   //#include <windows.h>
   //#include <iostream>
   typedef BOOL(WINAPI *LPFN_ISWOW64PROCESS) (HANDLE, PBOOL);
   
   LPFN_ISWOW64PROCESS fnIsWow64Process;
   
   BOOL IsWow64()
   {
           BOOL bIsWow64 = FALSE;
   
           //typedef BOOL (APIENTRY *LPFN_ISWOW64PROCESS)
           //  (HANDLE, PBOOL);
   
           //LPFN_ISWOW64PROCESS fnIsWow64Process;
   
           HMODULE module = GetModuleHandle(_T("kernel32"));
           const char funcName[] = "IsWow64Process";
           fnIsWow64Process = (LPFN_ISWOW64PROCESS)
                   GetProcAddress(module, funcName);
   
           if (NULL != fnIsWow64Process)
           {
                   if (!fnIsWow64Process(GetCurrentProcess(),
                           &bIsWow64))
                           //throw std::exception("Unknown error");
                           printf("Unknown error\n");
           }
           return bIsWow64 != FALSE;
   }
   #endif
   
   void syscompilerinfo()
    {
      /* #include "syscompilerinfo.h"*/
      /* command line Intel compiler 32bit windows, XP compatible:*/
      /* /GS /W3 /Gy
         /Zc:wchar_t /Zi /O2 /Fd"Release\vc120.pdb" /D "WIN32" /D "NDEBUG" /D
         "_CONSOLE" /D "_LIB" /D "_USING_V110_SDK71_" /D "_UNICODE" /D
         "UNICODE" /Qipo /Zc:forScope /Gd /Oi /MT /Fa"Release\" /EHsc /nologo
         /Fo"Release\" /Qprof-dir "Release\" /Fp"Release\IMaCh.pch"
      */ 
      /* 64 bits */
      /*
        /GS /W3 /Gy
        /Zc:wchar_t /Zi /O2 /Fd"x64\Release\vc120.pdb" /D "WIN32" /D "NDEBUG"
        /D "_CONSOLE" /D "_LIB" /D "_UNICODE" /D "UNICODE" /Qipo /Zc:forScope
        /Oi /MD /Fa"x64\Release\" /EHsc /nologo /Fo"x64\Release\" /Qprof-dir
        "x64\Release\" /Fp"x64\Release\IMaCh.pch" */
      /* Optimization are useless and O3 is slower than O2 */
      /*
        /GS /W3 /Gy /Zc:wchar_t /Zi /O3 /Fd"x64\Release\vc120.pdb" /D "WIN32" 
        /D "NDEBUG" /D "_CONSOLE" /D "_LIB" /D "_UNICODE" /D "UNICODE" /Qipo 
        /Zc:forScope /Oi /MD /Fa"x64\Release\" /EHsc /nologo /Qparallel 
        /Fo"x64\Release\" /Qprof-dir "x64\Release\" /Fp"x64\Release\IMaCh.pch" 
      */
      /* Link is */ /* /OUT:"visual studio
         2013\Projects\IMaCh\Release\IMaCh.exe" /MANIFEST /NXCOMPAT
         /PDB:"visual studio
         2013\Projects\IMaCh\Release\IMaCh.pdb" /DYNAMICBASE
         "kernel32.lib" "user32.lib" "gdi32.lib" "winspool.lib"
         "comdlg32.lib" "advapi32.lib" "shell32.lib" "ole32.lib"
         "oleaut32.lib" "uuid.lib" "odbc32.lib" "odbccp32.lib"
         /MACHINE:X86 /OPT:REF /SAFESEH /INCREMENTAL:NO
         /SUBSYSTEM:CONSOLE",5.01" /MANIFESTUAC:"level='asInvoker'
         uiAccess='false'"
         /ManifestFile:"Release\IMaCh.exe.intermediate.manifest" /OPT:ICF
         /NOLOGO /TLBID:1
      */
   #if defined __INTEL_COMPILER
   #if defined(__GNUC__)
           struct utsname sysInfo;  /* For Intel on Linux and OS/X */
   #endif
   #elif defined(__GNUC__) 
   #ifndef  __APPLE__
   #include <gnu/libc-version.h>  /* Only on gnu */
   #endif
      struct utsname sysInfo;
      int cross = CROSS;
      if (cross){
              printf("Cross-");
              fprintf(ficlog, "Cross-");
      }
   #endif
   
   #include <stdint.h>
   
      printf("Compiled with:");fprintf(ficlog,"Compiled with:");
   #if defined(__clang__)
      printf(" Clang/LLVM");fprintf(ficlog," Clang/LLVM"); /* Clang/LLVM. ---------------------------------------------- */
   #endif
   #if defined(__ICC) || defined(__INTEL_COMPILER)
      printf(" Intel ICC/ICPC");fprintf(ficlog," Intel ICC/ICPC");/* Intel ICC/ICPC. ------------------------------------------ */
   #endif
   #if defined(__GNUC__) || defined(__GNUG__)
      printf(" GNU GCC/G++");fprintf(ficlog," GNU GCC/G++");/* GNU GCC/G++. --------------------------------------------- */
   #endif
   #if defined(__HP_cc) || defined(__HP_aCC)
      printf(" Hewlett-Packard C/aC++");fprintf(fcilog," Hewlett-Packard C/aC++"); /* Hewlett-Packard C/aC++. ---------------------------------- */
   #endif
   #if defined(__IBMC__) || defined(__IBMCPP__)
      printf(" IBM XL C/C++"); fprintf(ficlog," IBM XL C/C++");/* IBM XL C/C++. -------------------------------------------- */
   #endif
   #if defined(_MSC_VER)
      printf(" Microsoft Visual Studio");fprintf(ficlog," Microsoft Visual Studio");/* Microsoft Visual Studio. --------------------------------- */
   #endif
   #if defined(__PGI)
      printf(" Portland Group PGCC/PGCPP");fprintf(ficlog," Portland Group PGCC/PGCPP");/* Portland Group PGCC/PGCPP. ------------------------------- */
   #endif
   #if defined(__SUNPRO_C) || defined(__SUNPRO_CC)
      printf(" Oracle Solaris Studio");fprintf(ficlog," Oracle Solaris Studio\n");/* Oracle Solaris Studio. ----------------------------------- */
   #endif
      printf(" for ");fprintf(ficlog," for ");
      
   // http://stackoverflow.com/questions/4605842/how-to-identify-platform-compiler-from-preprocessor-macros
   #ifdef _WIN32 // note the underscore: without it, it's not msdn official!
       // Windows (x64 and x86)
      printf("Windows (x64 and x86) ");fprintf(ficlog,"Windows (x64 and x86) ");
   #elif __unix__ // all unices, not all compilers
       // Unix
      printf("Unix ");fprintf(ficlog,"Unix ");
   #elif __linux__
       // linux
      printf("linux ");fprintf(ficlog,"linux ");
   #elif __APPLE__
       // Mac OS, not sure if this is covered by __posix__ and/or __unix__ though..
      printf("Mac OS ");fprintf(ficlog,"Mac OS ");
   #endif
   
   /*  __MINGW32__   */
   /*  __CYGWIN__   */
   /* __MINGW64__  */
   // http://msdn.microsoft.com/en-us/library/b0084kay.aspx
   /* _MSC_VER  //the Visual C++ compiler is 17.00.51106.1, the _MSC_VER macro evaluates to 1700. Type cl /?  */
   /* _MSC_FULL_VER //the Visual C++ compiler is 15.00.20706.01, the _MSC_FULL_VER macro evaluates to 150020706 */
   /* _WIN64  // Defined for applications for Win64. */
   /* _M_X64 // Defined for compilations that target x64 processors. */
   /* _DEBUG // Defined when you compile with /LDd, /MDd, and /MTd. */
   
   #if UINTPTR_MAX == 0xffffffff
      printf(" 32-bit"); fprintf(ficlog," 32-bit");/* 32-bit */
   #elif UINTPTR_MAX == 0xffffffffffffffff
      printf(" 64-bit"); fprintf(ficlog," 64-bit");/* 64-bit */
   #else
      printf(" wtf-bit"); fprintf(ficlog," wtf-bit");/* wtf */
   #endif
   
   #if defined(__GNUC__)
   # if defined(__GNUC_PATCHLEVEL__)
   #  define __GNUC_VERSION__ (__GNUC__ * 10000 \
                               + __GNUC_MINOR__ * 100 \
                               + __GNUC_PATCHLEVEL__)
   # else
   #  define __GNUC_VERSION__ (__GNUC__ * 10000 \
                               + __GNUC_MINOR__ * 100)
   # endif
      printf(" using GNU C version %d.\n", __GNUC_VERSION__);
      fprintf(ficlog, " using GNU C version %d.\n", __GNUC_VERSION__);
   
      if (uname(&sysInfo) != -1) {
        printf("Running on: %s %s %s %s %s\n",sysInfo.sysname, sysInfo.nodename, sysInfo.release, sysInfo.version, sysInfo.machine);
        fprintf(ficlog,"Running on: %s %s %s %s %s\n ",sysInfo.sysname, sysInfo.nodename, sysInfo.release, sysInfo.version, sysInfo.machine);
      }
      else
         perror("uname() error");
      //#ifndef __INTEL_COMPILER 
   #if !defined (__INTEL_COMPILER) && !defined(__APPLE__)
      printf("GNU libc version: %s\n", gnu_get_libc_version()); 
      fprintf(ficlog,"GNU libc version: %s\n", gnu_get_libc_version());
   #endif
   #endif
   
      //   void main()
      //   {
   #if defined(_MSC_VER)
      if (IsWow64()){
              printf("The program (probably compiled for 32bit) is running under WOW64 (64bit) emulation.\n");
              fprintf(ficlog, "The program (probably compiled for 32bit) is running under WOW64 (64bit) emulation.\n");
      }
      else{
              printf("The process is not running under WOW64 (i.e probably on a 64bit Windows).\n");
              fprintf(ficlog,"The programm is not running under WOW64 (i.e probably on a 64bit Windows).\n");
      }
      //      printf("\nPress Enter to continue...");
      //      getchar();
      //   }
   
   #endif
      
   
    }
   
   int prevalence_limit(double *p, double **prlim, double ageminpar, double agemaxpar){
     /*--------------- Prevalence limit  (period or stable prevalence) --------------*/
     int i, j, k, i1 ;
     double ftolpl = 1.e-10;
     double age, agebase, agelim;
   
       strcpy(filerespl,"pl");
       strcat(filerespl,fileres);
       if((ficrespl=fopen(filerespl,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with period (stable) prevalence resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);return 1;
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with period (stable) prevalence resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);return 1;
       }
       printf("Computing period (stable) prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Computing period (stable) prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);
       pstamp(ficrespl);
       fprintf(ficrespl,"# Period (stable) prevalence \n");
       fprintf(ficrespl,"#Age ");
       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrespl,"%d-%d ",i,i);
       fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");
     
       /* prlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);*/ /* back in main */
   
       agebase=ageminpar;
       agelim=agemaxpar;
   
       i1=pow(2,cptcoveff);
       if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
   
       for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
       /* for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=1;cptcov++){ */
         //for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
           k=k+1;
           /* to clean */
           //printf("cptcov=%d cptcod=%d codtab=%d\n",cptcov, cptcod,codtab[cptcod][cptcov]);
           fprintf(ficrespl,"\n#******");
           printf("\n#******");
           fprintf(ficlog,"\n#******");
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
             fprintf(ficrespl," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
             printf(" V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
             fprintf(ficlog," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           }
           fprintf(ficrespl,"******\n");
           printf("******\n");
           fprintf(ficlog,"******\n");
   
           fprintf(ficrespl,"#Age ");
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
             fprintf(ficrespl,"V%d %d",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           }
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrespl,"%d-%d ",i,i);
           fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");
           
           for (age=agebase; age<=agelim; age++){
           /* for (age=agebase; age<=agebase; age++){ */
             prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);
             fprintf(ficrespl,"%.0f ",age );
             for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
               fprintf(ficrespl,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
               fprintf(ficrespl," %.5f", prlim[i][i]);
             fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");
           } /* Age */
           /* was end of cptcod */
       } /* cptcov */
           return 0;
   }
   
   int hPijx(double *p, int bage, int fage){
       /*------------- h Pij x at various ages ------------*/
   
     int stepsize;
     int agelim;
     int hstepm;
     int nhstepm;
     int h, i, i1, j, k;
   
     double agedeb;
     double ***p3mat;
   
       strcpy(filerespij,"pij");  strcat(filerespij,fileres);
       if((ficrespij=fopen(filerespij,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with Pij resultfile: %s\n", filerespij); return 1;
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Pij resultfile: %s\n", filerespij); return 1;
       }
       printf("Computing pij: result on file '%s' \n", filerespij);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Computing pij: result on file '%s' \n", filerespij);
     
       stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
       /*if (stepm<=24) stepsize=2;*/
   
       agelim=AGESUP;
       hstepm=stepsize*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
       hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */ 
   
       /* hstepm=1;   aff par mois*/
       pstamp(ficrespij);
       fprintf(ficrespij,"#****** h Pij x Probability to be in state j at age x+h being in i at x ");
       i1= pow(2,cptcoveff);
      /* for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){ */
      /*    /\*for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*\/ */
      /*   k=k+1;  */
       for (k=1; k <= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff); k++){
         fprintf(ficrespij,"\n#****** ");
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
           fprintf(ficrespij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
         fprintf(ficrespij,"******\n");
         
         for (agedeb=fage; agedeb>=bage; agedeb--){ /* If stepm=6 months */
           nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */ 
           nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */
           
           /*        nhstepm=nhstepm*YEARM; aff par mois*/
           
           p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
           hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
           fprintf(ficrespij,"# Cov Agex agex+h hpijx with i,j=");
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
               fprintf(ficrespij," %1d-%1d",i,j);
           fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
           for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
             /*agedebphstep = agedeb + h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm;*/
             fprintf(ficrespij,"%d %3.f %3.f",k, agedeb, agedeb + h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm );
             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
                 fprintf(ficrespij," %.5f", p3mat[i][j][h]);
             fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
           }
           free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
         }
         /*}*/
       }
           return 0;
   }
   
   
   /***********************************************/
   /**************** Main Program *****************/
   /***********************************************/
   
   int main(int argc, char *argv[])
   {
   #ifdef GSL
     const gsl_multimin_fminimizer_type *T;
     size_t iteri = 0, it;
     int rval = GSL_CONTINUE;
     int status = GSL_SUCCESS;
     double ssval;
   #endif
     int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav);
     int i,j, k, n=MAXN,iter=0,m,size=100, cptcod;
   
     int jj, ll, li, lj, lk;
     int numlinepar=0; /* Current linenumber of parameter file */
     int itimes;
     int NDIM=2;
     int vpopbased=0;
   
     char ca[32], cb[32];
     /*  FILE *fichtm; *//* Html File */
     /* FILE *ficgp;*/ /*Gnuplot File */
     struct stat info;
     double agedeb;
     double ageminpar=1.e20,agemin=1.e20, agemaxpar=-1.e20, agemax=-1.e20;
   
     double fret;
     double dum; /* Dummy variable */
     double ***p3mat;
     double ***mobaverage;
   
     char line[MAXLINE];
     char path[MAXLINE],pathc[MAXLINE],pathcd[MAXLINE],pathtot[MAXLINE],model[MAXLINE];
     char pathr[MAXLINE], pathimach[MAXLINE]; 
     char *tok, *val; /* pathtot */
     int firstobs=1, lastobs=10;
     int c,  h , cpt;
     int jl;
     int i1, j1, jk, stepsize;
     int *tab; 
     int mobilavproj=0 , prevfcast=0 ; /* moving average of prev, If prevfcast=1 prevalence projection */
     int mobilav=0,popforecast=0;
     int hstepm, nhstepm;
     int agemortsup;
     float  sumlpop=0.;
     double jprev1=1, mprev1=1,anprev1=2000,jprev2=1, mprev2=1,anprev2=2000;
     double jpyram=1, mpyram=1,anpyram=2000,jpyram1=1, mpyram1=1,anpyram1=2000;
   
     double bage=0, fage=110, age, agelim, agebase;
     double ftolpl=FTOL;
     double **prlim;
     double ***param; /* Matrix of parameters */
     double  *p;
     double **matcov; /* Matrix of covariance */
     double ***delti3; /* Scale */
     double *delti; /* Scale */
     double ***eij, ***vareij;
     double **varpl; /* Variances of prevalence limits by age */
     double *epj, vepp;
   
     double dateprev1, dateprev2,jproj1=1,mproj1=1,anproj1=2000,jproj2=1,mproj2=1,anproj2=2000;
     double **ximort;
     char *alph[]={"a","a","b","c","d","e"}, str[4]="1234";
     int *dcwave;
   
     char z[1]="c";
   
     /*char  *strt;*/
     char strtend[80];
   
   
   /*   setlocale (LC_ALL, ""); */
   /*   bindtextdomain (PACKAGE, LOCALEDIR); */
   /*   textdomain (PACKAGE); */
   /*   setlocale (LC_CTYPE, ""); */
   /*   setlocale (LC_MESSAGES, ""); */
   
     /*   gettimeofday(&start_time, (struct timezone*)0); */ /* at first time */
     rstart_time = time(NULL);  
     /*  (void) gettimeofday(&start_time,&tzp);*/
     start_time = *localtime(&rstart_time);
     curr_time=start_time;
     /*tml = *localtime(&start_time.tm_sec);*/
     /* strcpy(strstart,asctime(&tml)); */
     strcpy(strstart,asctime(&start_time));
   
   /*  printf("Localtime (at start)=%s",strstart); */
   /*  tp.tm_sec = tp.tm_sec +86400; */
   /*  tm = *localtime(&start_time.tm_sec); */
   /*   tmg.tm_year=tmg.tm_year +dsign*dyear; */
   /*   tmg.tm_mon=tmg.tm_mon +dsign*dmonth; */
   /*   tmg.tm_hour=tmg.tm_hour + 1; */
   /*   tp.tm_sec = mktime(&tmg); */
   /*   strt=asctime(&tmg); */
   /*   printf("Time(after) =%s",strstart);  */
   /*  (void) time (&time_value);
   *  printf("time=%d,t-=%d\n",time_value,time_value-86400);
   *  tm = *localtime(&time_value);
   *  strstart=asctime(&tm);
   *  printf("tim_value=%d,asctime=%s\n",time_value,strstart); 
   */
   
     nberr=0; /* Number of errors and warnings */
     nbwarn=0;
   #ifdef WIN32
     _getcwd(pathcd, size);
   #else
     getcwd(pathcd, size);
   #endif
   
     printf("\n%s\n%s",version,fullversion);
     if(argc <=1){
       printf("\nEnter the parameter file name: ");
       fgets(pathr,FILENAMELENGTH,stdin);
       i=strlen(pathr);
       if(pathr[i-1]=='\n')
         pathr[i-1]='\0';
       i=strlen(pathr);
       if(pathr[i-1]==' ') /* This may happen when dragging on oS/X! */
         pathr[i-1]='\0';
      for (tok = pathr; tok != NULL; ){
         printf("Pathr |%s|\n",pathr);
         while ((val = strsep(&tok, "\"" )) != NULL && *val == '\0');
         printf("val= |%s| pathr=%s\n",val,pathr);
         strcpy (pathtot, val);
         if(pathr[0] == '\0') break; /* Dirty */
       }
     }
     else{
       strcpy(pathtot,argv[1]);
     }
     /*if(getcwd(pathcd, MAXLINE)!= NULL)printf ("Error pathcd\n");*/
     /*cygwin_split_path(pathtot,path,optionfile);
       printf("pathtot=%s, path=%s, optionfile=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile);*/
     /* cutv(path,optionfile,pathtot,'\\');*/
   
     /* Split argv[0], imach program to get pathimach */
     printf("\nargv[0]=%s argv[1]=%s, \n",argv[0],argv[1]);
     split(argv[0],pathimach,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
     printf("\nargv[0]=%s pathimach=%s, \noptionfile=%s \noptionfilext=%s \noptionfilefiname=%s\n",argv[0],pathimach,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
    /*   strcpy(pathimach,argv[0]); */
     /* Split argv[1]=pathtot, parameter file name to get path, optionfile, extension and name */
     split(pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
     printf("\npathtot=%s,\npath=%s,\noptionfile=%s \noptionfilext=%s \noptionfilefiname=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
   #ifdef WIN32
     _chdir(path); /* Can be a relative path */
     if(_getcwd(pathcd,MAXLINE) > 0) /* So pathcd is the full path */
   #else
     chdir(path); /* Can be a relative path */
     if (getcwd(pathcd, MAXLINE) > 0) /* So pathcd is the full path */
   #endif
     printf("Current directory %s!\n",pathcd);
     strcpy(command,"mkdir ");
     strcat(command,optionfilefiname);
     if((outcmd=system(command)) != 0){
       printf("Directory already exists (or can't create it) %s%s, err=%d\n",path,optionfilefiname,outcmd);
       /* fprintf(ficlog,"Problem creating directory %s%s\n",path,optionfilefiname); */
       /* fclose(ficlog); */
   /*     exit(1); */
     }
   /*   if((imk=mkdir(optionfilefiname))<0){ */
   /*     perror("mkdir"); */
   /*   } */
   
     /*-------- arguments in the command line --------*/
   
     /* Main Log file */
     strcat(filelog, optionfilefiname);
     strcat(filelog,".log");    /* */
     if((ficlog=fopen(filelog,"w"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with logfile %s\n",filelog);
       goto end;
     }
     fprintf(ficlog,"Log filename:%s\n",filelog);
     fprintf(ficlog,"\n%s\n%s",version,fullversion);
     fprintf(ficlog,"\nEnter the parameter file name: \n");
     fprintf(ficlog,"pathimach=%s\npathtot=%s\n\
    path=%s \n\
    optionfile=%s\n\
    optionfilext=%s\n\
    optionfilefiname='%s'\n",pathimach,pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
   
     syscompilerinfo();
   
     printf("Local time (at start):%s",strstart);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Local time (at start): %s",strstart);
     fflush(ficlog);
   /*   (void) gettimeofday(&curr_time,&tzp); */
   /*   printf("Elapsed time %d\n", asc_diff_time(curr_time.tm_sec-start_time.tm_sec,tmpout)); */
   
     /* */
     strcpy(fileres,"r");
     strcat(fileres, optionfilefiname);
     strcat(fileres,".txt");    /* Other files have txt extension */
   
     /* Main ---------arguments file --------*/
   
     if((ficpar=fopen(optionfile,"r"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with optionfile '%s' with errno='%s'\n",optionfile,strerror(errno));
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with optionfile '%s' with errno='%s'\n",optionfile,strerror(errno));
       fflush(ficlog);
       /* goto end; */
       exit(70); 
     }
   
   
   
     strcpy(filereso,"o");
     strcat(filereso,fileres);
     if((ficparo=fopen(filereso,"w"))==NULL) { /* opened on subdirectory */
       printf("Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);
       fflush(ficlog);
       goto end;
     }
   
     /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
     numlinepar=0;
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       numlinepar++;
       fputs(line,stdout);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
       fputs(line,ficlog);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
   
     fscanf(ficpar,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%lf stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d model=1+age+%s\n",title, datafile, &lastobs, &firstpass,&lastpass,&ftol, &stepm, &ncovcol, &nlstate,&ndeath, &maxwav, &mle, &weightopt,model);
     numlinepar++;
     printf("title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=1+age+%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate,ndeath, maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
     if(model[strlen(model)-1]=='.') /* Suppressing leading dot in the model */
       model[strlen(model)-1]='\0';
     fprintf(ficparo,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=1+age+%s.\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
     fprintf(ficlog,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=1+age+%s.\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
     fflush(ficlog);
     if(model[0]=='#'|| model[0]== '\0'){
       printf("Error in 'model' line: model should start with 'model=1+age+' and end with '.' \n \
    'model=1+age+.' or 'model=1+age+V1.' or 'model=1+age+age*age+V1+V1*age.' or \n \
    'model=1+age+V1+V2.' or 'model=1+age+V1+V2+V1*V2.' etc. \n");          \
       if(mle != -1){
         printf("Fix the model line and run imach with mle=-1 to get a correct template of the parameter file.\n");
         exit(1);
       }
     }
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       numlinepar++;
       fputs(line, stdout);
       //puts(line);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
       fputs(line,ficlog);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
   
      
     covar=matrix(0,NCOVMAX,1,n);  /**< used in readdata */
     cptcovn=0; /*Number of covariates, i.e. number of '+' in model statement plus one, indepently of n in Vn*/
     /* v1+v2+v3+v2*v4+v5*age makes cptcovn = 5
        v1+v2*age+v2*v3 makes cptcovn = 3
     */
     if (strlen(model)>1) 
       ncovmodel=2+nbocc(model,'+')+1; /*Number of variables including intercept and age = cptcovn + intercept + age : v1+v2+v3+v2*v4+v5*age makes 5+2=7,age*age makes 3*/
     else
       ncovmodel=2; /* Constant and age */
     nforce= (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate; /* Number of forces ij from state i to j */
     npar= nforce*ncovmodel; /* Number of parameters like aij*/
     if(npar >MAXPARM || nlstate >NLSTATEMAX || ndeath >NDEATHMAX || ncovmodel>NCOVMAX){
       printf("Too complex model for current IMaCh: npar=(nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel=%d >= %d(MAXPARM) or nlstate=%d >= %d(NLSTATEMAX) or ndeath=%d >= %d(NDEATHMAX) or ncovmodel=(k+age+#of+signs)=%d(NCOVMAX) >= %d\n",npar, MAXPARM, nlstate, NLSTATEMAX, ndeath, NDEATHMAX, ncovmodel, NCOVMAX);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Too complex model for current IMaCh: %d >=%d(MAXPARM) or %d >=%d(NLSTATEMAX) or %d >=%d(NDEATHMAX) or %d(NCOVMAX) >=%d\n",npar, MAXPARM, nlstate, NLSTATEMAX, ndeath, NDEATHMAX, ncovmodel, NCOVMAX);
       fflush(stdout);
       fclose (ficlog);
       goto end;
     }
     delti3= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
     delti=delti3[1][1];
     /*delti=vector(1,npar); *//* Scale of each paramater (output from hesscov)*/
     if(mle==-1){ /* Print a wizard for help writing covariance matrix */
       prwizard(ncovmodel, nlstate, ndeath, model, ficparo);
       printf(" You choose mle=-1, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
       fprintf(ficlog," You choose mle=-1, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
       free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel); 
       fclose (ficparo);
       fclose (ficlog);
       goto end;
       exit(0);
     }
     else if(mle==-3) { /* Main Wizard */
       prwizard(ncovmodel, nlstate, ndeath, model, ficparo);
       printf(" You choose mle=-3, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
       fprintf(ficlog," You choose mle=-3, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
       param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
       matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
     }
     else{
       /* Read guessed parameters */
       /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         numlinepar++;
         fputs(line,stdout);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
         fputs(line,ficlog);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       
       param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
       for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
         j=0;
         for(jj=1; jj <=nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
           if(jj==i) continue;
           j++;
           fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);
           if ((i1 != i) && (j1 != j)){
             printf("Error in line parameters number %d, %1d%1d instead of %1d%1d \n \
   It might be a problem of design; if ncovcol and the model are correct\n \
   run imach with mle=-1 to get a correct template of the parameter file.\n",numlinepar, i,j, i1, j1);
             exit(1);
           }
           fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
           if(mle==1)
             printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
           fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i,j);
           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
             fscanf(ficpar," %lf",&param[i][j][k]);
             if(mle==1){
               printf(" %lf",param[i][j][k]);
               fprintf(ficlog," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
             }
             else
               fprintf(ficlog," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
             fprintf(ficparo," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
           }
           fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
           numlinepar++;
           if(mle==1)
             printf("\n");
           fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
           fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
         }
       }  
       fflush(ficlog);
   
       /* Reads scales values */
       p=param[1][1];
       
       /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         numlinepar++;
         fputs(line,stdout);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
         fputs(line,ficlog);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
   
       for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
         for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath-1; j++){
           fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);
           if ( (i1-i) * (j1-j) != 0){
             printf("Error in line parameters number %d, %1d%1d instead of %1d%1d \n",numlinepar, i,j, i1, j1);
             exit(1);
           }
           printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
           fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
           fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
             fscanf(ficpar,"%le",&delti3[i][j][k]);
             printf(" %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
             fprintf(ficparo," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
             fprintf(ficlog," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
           }
           fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
           numlinepar++;
           printf("\n");
           fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
           fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
         }
       }
       fflush(ficlog);
   
       /* Reads covariance matrix */
       delti=delti3[1][1];
   
   
       /* free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel); */ /* Hasn't to to freed here otherwise delti is no more allocated */
     
       /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         numlinepar++;
         fputs(line,stdout);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
         fputs(line,ficlog);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
     
       matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
       for(i=1; i <=npar; i++)
         for(j=1; j <=npar; j++) matcov[i][j]=0.;
         
       for(i=1; i <=npar; i++){
         fscanf(ficpar,"%s",str);
         if(mle==1)
           printf("%s",str);
         fprintf(ficlog,"%s",str);
         fprintf(ficparo,"%s",str);
         for(j=1; j <=i; j++){
           fscanf(ficpar," %le",&matcov[i][j]);
           if(mle==1){
             printf(" %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
           }
           fprintf(ficlog," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
           fprintf(ficparo," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
         }
         fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
         numlinepar++;
         if(mle==1)
           printf("\n");
         fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
         fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
       }
       for(i=1; i <=npar; i++)
         for(j=i+1;j<=npar;j++)
           matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];
       
       if(mle==1)
         printf("\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
       
       fflush(ficlog);
       
       /*-------- Rewriting parameter file ----------*/
       strcpy(rfileres,"r");    /* "Rparameterfile */
       strcat(rfileres,optionfilefiname);    /* Parameter file first name*/
       strcat(rfileres,".");    /* */
       strcat(rfileres,optionfilext);    /* Other files have txt extension */
       if((ficres =fopen(rfileres,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", fileres);goto end;
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", fileres);goto end;
       }
       fprintf(ficres,"#%s\n",version);
     }    /* End of mle != -3 */
   
     /*  Main data
      */
     n= lastobs;
     num=lvector(1,n);
     moisnais=vector(1,n);
     annais=vector(1,n);
     moisdc=vector(1,n);
     andc=vector(1,n);
     agedc=vector(1,n);
     cod=ivector(1,n);
     weight=vector(1,n);
     for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0; /* Equal weights, 1 by default */
     mint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);
     anint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);
     s=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n); /* s[i][j] health state for wave i and individual j */ 
     tab=ivector(1,NCOVMAX);
     ncodemax=ivector(1,NCOVMAX); /* Number of code per covariate; if O and 1 only, 2**ncov; V1+V2+V3+V4=>16 */
   
     /* Reads data from file datafile */
     if (readdata(datafile, firstobs, lastobs, &imx)==1)
       goto end;
   
     /* Calculation of the number of parameters from char model */
       /*    modelsav=V2+V1+V4+age*V3 strb=age*V3 stra=V2+V1+V4 
           k=4 (age*V3) Tvar[k=4]= 3 (from V3) Tag[cptcovage=1]=4
           k=3 V4 Tvar[k=3]= 4 (from V4)
           k=2 V1 Tvar[k=2]= 1 (from V1)
           k=1 Tvar[1]=2 (from V2)
       */
     Tvar=ivector(1,NCOVMAX); /* Was 15 changed to NCOVMAX. */
     /*  V2+V1+V4+age*V3 is a model with 4 covariates (3 plus signs). 
         For each model-covariate stores the data-covariate id. Tvar[1]=2, Tvar[2]=1, Tvar[3]=4, 
         Tvar[4=age*V3] is 3 and 'age' is recorded in Tage.
     */
     /* For model-covariate k tells which data-covariate to use but
       because this model-covariate is a construction we invent a new column
       ncovcol + k1
       If already ncovcol=4 and model=V2+V1+V1*V4+age*V3
       Tvar[3=V1*V4]=4+1 etc */
     Tprod=ivector(1,NCOVMAX); /* Gives the position of a product */
     /* Tprod[k1=1]=3(=V1*V4) for V2+V1+V1*V4+age*V3
        if  V2+V1+V1*V4+age*V3+V3*V2   TProd[k1=2]=5 (V3*V2)
     */
     Tvaraff=ivector(1,NCOVMAX); /* Unclear */
     Tvard=imatrix(1,NCOVMAX,1,2); /* n=Tvard[k1][1]  and m=Tvard[k1][2] gives the couple n,m of the k1 th product Vn*Vm
                               * For V3*V2 (in V2+V1+V1*V4+age*V3+V3*V2), V3*V2 position is 2nd. 
                               * Tvard[k1=2][1]=3 (V3) Tvard[k1=2][2]=2(V2) */
     Tage=ivector(1,NCOVMAX); /* Gives the covariate id of covariates associated with age: V2 + V1 + age*V4 + V3*age
                            4 covariates (3 plus signs)
                            Tage[1=V3*age]= 4; Tage[2=age*V4] = 3
                         */  
   
   /* Main decodemodel */
   
   
     if(decodemodel(model, lastobs) == 1)
       goto end;
   
     if((double)(lastobs-imx)/(double)imx > 1.10){
       nbwarn++;
       printf("Warning: The value of parameter lastobs=%d is big compared to the \n  effective number of cases imx=%d, please adjust, \n  otherwise you are allocating more memory than necessary.\n",lastobs, imx); 
       fprintf(ficlog,"Warning: The value of parameter lastobs=%d is big compared to the \n  effective number of cases imx=%d, please adjust, \n  otherwise you are allocating more memory than necessary.\n",lastobs, imx); 
     }
       /*  if(mle==1){*/
     if (weightopt != 1) { /* Maximisation without weights. We can have weights different from 1 but want no weight*/
       for(i=1;i<=imx;i++) weight[i]=1.0; /* changed to imx */
     }
   
       /*-calculation of age at interview from date of interview and age at death -*/
     agev=matrix(1,maxwav,1,imx);
   
     if(calandcheckages(imx, maxwav, &agemin, &agemax, &nberr, &nbwarn) == 1)
       goto end;
   
   
     agegomp=(int)agemin;
     free_vector(moisnais,1,n);
     free_vector(annais,1,n);
     /* free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);
        free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n);*/
     free_vector(moisdc,1,n);
     free_vector(andc,1,n);
     /* */
     
     wav=ivector(1,imx);
     dh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
     bh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
     mw=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
      
     /* Concatenates waves */
     concatwav(wav, dh, bh, mw, s, agedc, agev,  firstpass, lastpass, imx, nlstate, stepm);
     /* */
    
     /* Routine tricode is to calculate cptcoveff (real number of unique covariates) and to associate covariable number and modality */
   
     nbcode=imatrix(0,NCOVMAX,0,NCOVMAX); 
     ncodemax[1]=1;
     Ndum =ivector(-1,NCOVMAX);  
     if (ncovmodel-nagesqr > 2 ) /* That is if covariate other than cst, age and age*age */
       tricode(Tvar,nbcode,imx, Ndum); /**< Fills nbcode[Tvar[j]][l]; */
     /* Nbcode gives the value of the lth modality of jth covariate, in
        V2+V1*age, there are 3 covariates Tvar[2]=1 (V1).*/
     /* 1 to ncodemax[j] is the maximum value of this jth covariate */
   
     codtab=imatrix(1,100,1,10); /* codtab[h,k]=( (h-1) - mod(k-1,2**(k-1) )/2**(k-1) */
     /*printf(" codtab[1,1],codtab[100,10]=%d,%d\n", codtab[1][1],codtab[100][10]);*/
     /* codtab gives the value 1 or 2 of the hth combination of k covariates (1 or 2).*/
     h=0;
   
   
     /*if (cptcovn > 0) */
         
    
     m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
    
     for(k=1;k<=cptcoveff; k++){ /* scans any effective covariate */
       for(i=1; i <=pow(2,cptcoveff-k);i++){ /* i=1 to 8/1=8; i=1 to 8/2=4; i=1 to 8/8=1 */ 
         for(j=1; j <= ncodemax[k]; j++){ /* For each modality of this covariate ncodemax=2*/
           for(cpt=1; cpt <=pow(2,k-1); cpt++){  /* cpt=1 to 8/2**(3+1-1 or 3+1-3) =1 or 4 */ 
             h++;
             if (h>m) 
               h=1;
             /**< codtab(h,k)  k   = codtab[h,k]=( (h-1) - mod(k-1,2**(k-1) )/2**(k-1) + 1
              * For k=4 covariates, h goes from 1 to 2**k
              * codtabm(h,k)=  1 & (h-1) >> (k-1) ;
              *     h\k   1     2     3     4
              *______________________________  
              *     1 i=1 1 i=1 1 i=1 1 i=1 1
              *     2     2     1     1     1
              *     3 i=2 1     2     1     1
              *     4     2     2     1     1
              *     5 i=3 1 i=2 1     2     1
              *     6     2     1     2     1
              *     7 i=4 1     2     2     1
              *     8     2     2     2     1
              *     9 i=5 1 i=3 1 i=2 1     1
              *    10     2     1     1     1
              *    11 i=6 1     2     1     1
              *    12     2     2     1     1
              *    13 i=7 1 i=4 1     2     1    
              *    14     2     1     2     1
              *    15 i=8 1     2     2     1
              *    16     2     2     2     1
              */
             codtab[h][k]=j;
             /* codtab[12][3]=1; */
             /*codtab[h][Tvar[k]]=j;*/
             printf("h=%d k=%d j=%d codtab[h][k]=%d Tvar[k]=%d codtab[h][Tvar[k]]=%d \n",h, k,j,codtab[h][k],Tvar[k],codtab[h][Tvar[k]]);
           } 
         }
       }
     } 
     /* printf("codtab[1][2]=%d codtab[2][2]=%d",codtab[1][2],codtab[2][2]); 
        codtab[1][2]=1;codtab[2][2]=2; */
     /* for(i=1; i <=m ;i++){ 
        for(k=1; k <=cptcovn; k++){
          printf("i=%d k=%d %d %d ",i,k,codtab[i][k], cptcoveff);
        }
        printf("\n");
        }
        scanf("%d",i);*/
   
    free_ivector(Ndum,-1,NCOVMAX);
   
   
       
     /* Initialisation of ----------- gnuplot -------------*/
     strcpy(optionfilegnuplot,optionfilefiname);
     if(mle==-3)
       strcat(optionfilegnuplot,"-mort");
     strcat(optionfilegnuplot,".gp");
   
     if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot);
     }
     else{
       fprintf(ficgp,"\n# %s\n", version); 
       fprintf(ficgp,"# %s\n", optionfilegnuplot); 
       //fprintf(ficgp,"set missing 'NaNq'\n");
       fprintf(ficgp,"set datafile missing 'NaNq'\n");
     }
     /*  fclose(ficgp);*/
   
   
     /* Initialisation of --------- index.htm --------*/
   
     strcpy(optionfilehtm,optionfilefiname); /* Main html file */
     if(mle==-3)
       strcat(optionfilehtm,"-mort");
     strcat(optionfilehtm,".htm");
     if((fichtm=fopen(optionfilehtm,"w"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtm);
       exit(0);
     }
   
     strcpy(optionfilehtmcov,optionfilefiname); /* Only for matrix of covariance */
     strcat(optionfilehtmcov,"-cov.htm");
     if((fichtmcov=fopen(optionfilehtmcov,"w"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtmcov), exit(0);
     }
     else{
     fprintf(fichtmcov,"<html><head>\n<title>IMaCh Cov %s</title></head>\n <body><font size=\"2\">%s <br> %s</font> \
   <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n\
   Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>\n",\
             optionfilehtmcov,version,fullversion,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt, model);
     }
   
     fprintf(fichtm,"<html><head>\n<title>IMaCh %s</title></head>\n <body><font size=\"2\">%s <br> %s</font> \
   <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n\
   Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>\n\
   \n\
   <hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">\
    <ul><li><h4>Parameter files</h4>\n\
    - Parameter file: <a href=\"%s.%s\">%s.%s</a><br>\n\
    - Copy of the parameter file: <a href=\"o%s\">o%s</a><br>\n\
    - Log file of the run: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n\
    - Gnuplot file name: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n\
    - Date and time at start: %s</ul>\n",\
             optionfilehtm,version,fullversion,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt, model,\
             optionfilefiname,optionfilext,optionfilefiname,optionfilext,\
             fileres,fileres,\
             filelog,filelog,optionfilegnuplot,optionfilegnuplot,strstart);
     fflush(fichtm);
   
     strcpy(pathr,path);
     strcat(pathr,optionfilefiname);
   #ifdef WIN32
     _chdir(optionfilefiname); /* Move to directory named optionfile */
   #else
     chdir(optionfilefiname); /* Move to directory named optionfile */
   #endif
             
     
     /* Calculates basic frequencies. Computes observed prevalence at single age
        and prints on file fileres'p'. */
     freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,strstart);
   
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n");
     fprintf(fichtm,"<br>Total number of observations=%d <br>\n\
   Youngest age at first (selected) pass %.2f, oldest age %.2f<br>\n\
   Interval (in months) between two waves: Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%.2lf<br>\n",\
             imx,agemin,agemax,jmin,jmax,jmean);
     pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
       oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
       newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
       savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
       oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */
       
      
     /* For Powell, parameters are in a vector p[] starting at p[1]
        so we point p on param[1][1] so that p[1] maps on param[1][1][1] */
     p=param[1][1]; /* *(*(*(param +1)+1)+0) */
   
     globpr=0; /* To get the number ipmx of contributions and the sum of weights*/
     /* For mortality only */
     if (mle==-3){
       ximort=matrix(1,NDIM,1,NDIM); 
       /*     ximort=gsl_matrix_alloc(1,NDIM,1,NDIM); */
       cens=ivector(1,n);
       ageexmed=vector(1,n);
       agecens=vector(1,n);
       dcwave=ivector(1,n);
    
       for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
         dcwave[i]=-1;
         for (m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++)
           if (s[m][i]>nlstate) {
             dcwave[i]=m;
             /*    printf("i=%d j=%d s=%d dcwave=%d\n",i,j, s[j][i],dcwave[i]);*/
             break;
           }
       }
   
       for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
         if (wav[i]>0){
           ageexmed[i]=agev[mw[1][i]][i];
           j=wav[i];
           agecens[i]=1.; 
   
           if (ageexmed[i]> 1 && wav[i] > 0){
             agecens[i]=agev[mw[j][i]][i];
             cens[i]= 1;
           }else if (ageexmed[i]< 1) 
             cens[i]= -1;
           if (agedc[i]< AGESUP && agedc[i]>1 && dcwave[i]>firstpass && dcwave[i]<=lastpass)
             cens[i]=0 ;
         }
         else cens[i]=-1;
       }
       
       for (i=1;i<=NDIM;i++) {
         for (j=1;j<=NDIM;j++)
           ximort[i][j]=(i == j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
       }
       
       /*p[1]=0.0268; p[NDIM]=0.083;*/
       /*printf("%lf %lf", p[1], p[2]);*/
       
       
   #ifdef GSL
       printf("GSL optimization\n");  fprintf(ficlog,"Powell\n");
   #else
       printf("Powell\n");  fprintf(ficlog,"Powell\n");
   #endif
       strcpy(filerespow,"pow-mort"); 
       strcat(filerespow,fileres);
       if((ficrespow=fopen(filerespow,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
       }
   #ifdef GSL
       fprintf(ficrespow,"# GSL optimization\n# iter -2*LL");
   #else
       fprintf(ficrespow,"# Powell\n# iter -2*LL");
   #endif
       /*  for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
           for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
           if(j!=i)fprintf(ficrespow," p%1d%1d",i,j);
       */
       fprintf(ficrespow,"\n");
   #ifdef GSL
       /* gsl starts here */ 
       T = gsl_multimin_fminimizer_nmsimplex;
       gsl_multimin_fminimizer *sfm = NULL;
       gsl_vector *ss, *x;
       gsl_multimin_function minex_func;
   
       /* Initial vertex size vector */
       ss = gsl_vector_alloc (NDIM);
       
       if (ss == NULL){
         GSL_ERROR_VAL ("failed to allocate space for ss", GSL_ENOMEM, 0);
       }
       /* Set all step sizes to 1 */
       gsl_vector_set_all (ss, 0.001);
   
       /* Starting point */
       
       x = gsl_vector_alloc (NDIM);
       
       if (x == NULL){
         gsl_vector_free(ss);
         GSL_ERROR_VAL ("failed to allocate space for x", GSL_ENOMEM, 0);
       }
     
       /* Initialize method and iterate */
       /*     p[1]=0.0268; p[NDIM]=0.083; */
       /*     gsl_vector_set(x, 0, 0.0268); */
       /*     gsl_vector_set(x, 1, 0.083); */
       gsl_vector_set(x, 0, p[1]);
       gsl_vector_set(x, 1, p[2]);
   
       minex_func.f = &gompertz_f;
       minex_func.n = NDIM;
       minex_func.params = (void *)&p; /* ??? */
       
       sfm = gsl_multimin_fminimizer_alloc (T, NDIM);
       gsl_multimin_fminimizer_set (sfm, &minex_func, x, ss);
       
       printf("Iterations beginning .....\n\n");
       printf("Iter. #    Intercept       Slope     -Log Likelihood     Simplex size\n");
   
       iteri=0;
       while (rval == GSL_CONTINUE){
         iteri++;
         status = gsl_multimin_fminimizer_iterate(sfm);
         
         if (status) printf("error: %s\n", gsl_strerror (status));
         fflush(0);
         
         if (status) 
           break;
         
         rval = gsl_multimin_test_size (gsl_multimin_fminimizer_size (sfm), 1e-6);
         ssval = gsl_multimin_fminimizer_size (sfm);
         
         if (rval == GSL_SUCCESS)
           printf ("converged to a local maximum at\n");
         
         printf("%5d ", iteri);
         for (it = 0; it < NDIM; it++){
           printf ("%10.5f ", gsl_vector_get (sfm->x, it));
         }
         printf("f() = %-10.5f ssize = %.7f\n", sfm->fval, ssval);
       }
       
       printf("\n\n Please note: Program should be run many times with varying starting points to detemine global maximum\n\n");
       
       gsl_vector_free(x); /* initial values */
       gsl_vector_free(ss); /* inital step size */
       for (it=0; it<NDIM; it++){
         p[it+1]=gsl_vector_get(sfm->x,it);
         fprintf(ficrespow," %.12lf", p[it]);
       }
       gsl_multimin_fminimizer_free (sfm); /* p *(sfm.x.data) et p *(sfm.x.data+1)  */
   #endif
   #ifdef POWELL
        powell(p,ximort,NDIM,ftol,&iter,&fret,gompertz);
   #endif  
       fclose(ficrespow);
       
       hesscov(matcov, p, NDIM, delti, 1e-4, gompertz); 
   
       for(i=1; i <=NDIM; i++)
         for(j=i+1;j<=NDIM;j++)
           matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];
       
       printf("\nCovariance matrix\n ");
       for(i=1; i <=NDIM; i++) {
         for(j=1;j<=NDIM;j++){ 
           printf("%f ",matcov[i][j]);
         }
         printf("\n ");
       }
       
       printf("iter=%d MLE=%f Eq=%lf*exp(%lf*(age-%d))\n",iter,-gompertz(p),p[1],p[2],agegomp);
       for (i=1;i<=NDIM;i++) 
         printf("%f [%f ; %f]\n",p[i],p[i]-2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]),p[i]+2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]));
   
       lsurv=vector(1,AGESUP);
       lpop=vector(1,AGESUP);
       tpop=vector(1,AGESUP);
       lsurv[agegomp]=100000;
       
       for (k=agegomp;k<=AGESUP;k++) {
         agemortsup=k;
         if (p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp))>1) break;
       }
       
       for (k=agegomp;k<agemortsup;k++)
         lsurv[k+1]=lsurv[k]-lsurv[k]*(p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)));
       
       for (k=agegomp;k<agemortsup;k++){
         lpop[k]=(lsurv[k]+lsurv[k+1])/2.;
         sumlpop=sumlpop+lpop[k];
       }
       
       tpop[agegomp]=sumlpop;
       for (k=agegomp;k<(agemortsup-3);k++){
         /*  tpop[k+1]=2;*/
         tpop[k+1]=tpop[k]-lpop[k];
       }
       
       
       printf("\nAge   lx     qx    dx    Lx     Tx     e(x)\n");
       for (k=agegomp;k<(agemortsup-2);k++) 
         printf("%d %.0lf %lf %.0lf %.0lf %.0lf %lf\n",k,lsurv[k],p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)),(p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)))*lsurv[k],lpop[k],tpop[k],tpop[k]/lsurv[k]);
       
       
       replace_back_to_slash(pathc,pathcd); /* Even gnuplot wants a / */
       printinggnuplotmort(fileres, optionfilefiname,ageminpar,agemaxpar,fage, pathc,p);
       
       printinghtmlmort(fileres,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, \
                        stepm, weightopt,\
                        model,imx,p,matcov,agemortsup);
       
       free_vector(lsurv,1,AGESUP);
       free_vector(lpop,1,AGESUP);
       free_vector(tpop,1,AGESUP);
   #ifdef GSL
       free_ivector(cens,1,n);
       free_vector(agecens,1,n);
       free_ivector(dcwave,1,n);
       free_matrix(ximort,1,NDIM,1,NDIM);
   #endif
     } /* Endof if mle==-3 mortality only */
     /* Standard maximisation */
     else{ /* For mle >=1 */
       globpr=0;/* debug */
       /* Computes likelihood for initial parameters */
       likelione(ficres, p, npar, nlstate, &globpr, &ipmx, &sw, &fretone, funcone); /* Prints the contributions to the likelihood */
       printf("First Likeli=%12.6f ipmx=%ld sw=%12.6f",fretone,ipmx,sw);
       for (k=1; k<=npar;k++)
         printf(" %d %8.5f",k,p[k]);
       printf("\n");
       globpr=1; /* again, to print the contributions */
       likelione(ficres, p, npar, nlstate, &globpr, &ipmx, &sw, &fretone, funcone); /* Prints the contributions to the likelihood */
       printf("Second Likeli=%12.6f ipmx=%ld sw=%12.6f",fretone,ipmx,sw);
       for (k=1; k<=npar;k++)
         printf(" %d %8.5f",k,p[k]);
       printf("\n");
       if(mle>=1){ /* Could be 1 or 2, Real Maximisation */
         mlikeli(ficres,p, npar, ncovmodel, nlstate, ftol, func);
       }
       
       /*--------- results files --------------*/
       fprintf(ficres,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle= 0 weight=%d\nmodel=1+age+%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate, ndeath, maxwav, weightopt,model);
       
       
       fprintf(ficres,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
       printf("# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
       for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
         for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
           if (k != i) {
             printf("%d%d ",i,k);
             fprintf(ficlog,"%d%d ",i,k);
             fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d ",i,k);
             for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
               printf("%lf ",p[jk]);
               fprintf(ficlog,"%lf ",p[jk]);
               fprintf(ficres,"%lf ",p[jk]);
               jk++; 
             }
             printf("\n");
             fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
             fprintf(ficres,"\n");
           }
         }
       }
       if(mle!=0){
         /* Computing hessian and covariance matrix */
         ftolhess=ftol; /* Usually correct */
         hesscov(matcov, p, npar, delti, ftolhess, func);
       }
       fprintf(ficres,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
       printf("# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
       for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
         for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
           if (j!=i) {
             fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d",i,j);
             printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
             fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i,j);
             for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
               printf(" %.5e",delti[jk]);
               fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",delti[jk]);
               fprintf(ficres," %.5e",delti[jk]);
               jk++;
             }
             printf("\n");
             fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
             fprintf(ficres,"\n");
           }
         }
       }
       
       fprintf(ficres,"# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
       if(mle>=1)
         printf("# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
       /* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */
       /* # 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n\ */
       /* # 131 Cov(a13,a12) Cov(a13,b12, Var(a13)\n\ */
       /* # 132 Cov(b13,a12) Cov(b13,b12, Cov(b13,a13) Var(b13)\n\ */
       /* # 212 Cov(a21,a12) Cov(a21,b12, Cov(a21,a13) Cov(a21,b13) Var(a21)\n\ */
       /* # 212 Cov(b21,a12) Cov(b21,b12, Cov(b21,a13) Cov(b21,b13) Cov(b21,a21) Var(b21)\n\ */
       /* # 232 Cov(a23,a12) Cov(a23,b12, Cov(a23,a13) Cov(a23,b13) Cov(a23,a21) Cov(a23,b21) Var(a23)\n\ */
       /* # 232 Cov(b23,a12) Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n" */
       
       
       /* Just to have a covariance matrix which will be more understandable
          even is we still don't want to manage dictionary of variables
       */
       for(itimes=1;itimes<=2;itimes++){
         jj=0;
         for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
           for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
             if(j==i) continue;
             for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
               jj++;
               ca[0]= k+'a'-1;ca[1]='\0';
               if(itimes==1){
                 if(mle>=1)
                   printf("#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
                 fprintf(ficlog,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
                 fprintf(ficres,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               }else{
                 if(mle>=1)
                   printf("%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
                 fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
                 fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               }
               ll=0;
               for(li=1;li <=nlstate; li++){
                 for(lj=1;lj <=nlstate+ndeath; lj++){
                   if(lj==li) continue;
                   for(lk=1;lk<=ncovmodel;lk++){
                     ll++;
                     if(ll<=jj){
                       cb[0]= lk +'a'-1;cb[1]='\0';
                       if(ll<jj){
                         if(itimes==1){
                           if(mle>=1)
                             printf(" Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                           fprintf(ficlog," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                           fprintf(ficres," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                         }else{
                           if(mle>=1)
                             printf(" %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                           fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                           fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                         }
                       }else{
                         if(itimes==1){
                           if(mle>=1)
                             printf(" Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                           fprintf(ficlog," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                           fprintf(ficres," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                         }else{
                           if(mle>=1)
                             printf(" %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                           fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                           fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                         }
                       }
                     }
                   } /* end lk */
                 } /* end lj */
               } /* end li */
               if(mle>=1)
                 printf("\n");
               fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
               fprintf(ficres,"\n");
               numlinepar++;
             } /* end k*/
           } /*end j */
         } /* end i */
       } /* end itimes */
       
       fflush(ficlog);
       fflush(ficres);
       
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         fputs(line,stdout);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       
       estepm=0;
       fscanf(ficpar,"agemin=%lf agemax=%lf bage=%lf fage=%lf estepm=%d\n",&ageminpar,&agemaxpar, &bage, &fage, &estepm);
       if (estepm==0 || estepm < stepm) estepm=stepm;
       if (fage <= 2) {
         bage = ageminpar;
         fage = agemaxpar;
       }
       
       fprintf(ficres,"# agemin agemax for life expectancy, bage fage (if mle==0 ie no data nor Max likelihood).\n");
       fprintf(ficres,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm);
       fprintf(ficparo,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm);
   
       /* Other stuffs, more or less useful */    
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         fputs(line,stdout);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       
       fscanf(ficpar,"begin-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf end-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mov_average=%d\n",&jprev1, &mprev1,&anprev1,&jprev2, &mprev2,&anprev2,&mobilav);
       fprintf(ficparo,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
       fprintf(ficres,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
       printf("begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
       fprintf(ficlog,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
       
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         fputs(line,stdout);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       
       
       dateprev1=anprev1+(mprev1-1)/12.+(jprev1-1)/365.;
       dateprev2=anprev2+(mprev2-1)/12.+(jprev2-1)/365.;
       
       fscanf(ficpar,"pop_based=%d\n",&popbased);
       fprintf(ficparo,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);   
       fprintf(ficres,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);   
       
       while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
         ungetc(c,ficpar);
         fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
         fputs(line,stdout);
         fputs(line,ficparo);
       }
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       
       fscanf(ficpar,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf final-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mobil_average=%d\n",&prevfcast,&jproj1,&mproj1,&anproj1,&jproj2,&mproj2,&anproj2,&mobilavproj);
       fprintf(ficparo,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
       printf("prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
       fprintf(ficlog,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
       fprintf(ficres,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
       /* day and month of proj2 are not used but only year anproj2.*/
       
       
       
        /* freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint); */
       /* ,dateprev1,dateprev2,jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2); */
       
       replace_back_to_slash(pathc,pathcd); /* Even gnuplot wants a / */
       printinggnuplot(fileres, optionfilefiname,ageminpar,agemaxpar,fage, pathc,p);
       
       printinghtml(fileres,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, stepm, weightopt,\
                    model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,rfileres,popforecast,estepm,\
                    jprev1,mprev1,anprev1,jprev2,mprev2,anprev2);
         
      /*------------ free_vector  -------------*/
      /*  chdir(path); */
    
       free_ivector(wav,1,imx);
       free_imatrix(dh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
       free_imatrix(bh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
       free_imatrix(mw,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);   
       free_lvector(num,1,n);
       free_vector(agedc,1,n);
       /*free_matrix(covar,0,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/
       /*free_matrix(covar,1,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/
       fclose(ficparo);
       fclose(ficres);
   
   
       /* Other results (useful)*/
   
   
       /*--------------- Prevalence limit  (period or stable prevalence) --------------*/
       /*#include "prevlim.h"*/  /* Use ficrespl, ficlog */
       prlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
       prevalence_limit(p, prlim,  ageminpar, agemaxpar);
       fclose(ficrespl);
   
   #ifdef FREEEXIT2
   #include "freeexit2.h"
   #endif
   
       /*------------- h Pij x at various ages ------------*/
       /*#include "hpijx.h"*/
       hPijx(p, bage, fage);
       fclose(ficrespij);
   
     /*-------------- Variance of one-step probabilities---*/
       k=1;
       varprob(optionfilefiname, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, bage, fage,k,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,strstart);
   
   
       probs= ma3x(1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
       for(i=1;i<=AGESUP;i++)
         for(j=1;j<=NCOVMAX;j++)
           for(k=1;k<=NCOVMAX;k++)
             probs[i][j][k]=0.;
   
       /*---------- Forecasting ------------------*/
       /*if((stepm == 1) && (strcmp(model,".")==0)){*/
       if(prevfcast==1){
         /*    if(stepm ==1){*/
         prevforecast(fileres, anproj1, mproj1, jproj1, agemin, agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2, mobilavproj, bage, fage, firstpass, lastpass, anproj2, p, cptcoveff);
         /* (popforecast==1) populforecast(fileres, anpyram,mpyram,jpyram, agemin,agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2,mobilav, agedeb, fage, popforecast, popfile, anpyram1,p, i1);*/
         /*      }  */
         /*      else{ */
         /*        erreur=108; */
         /*        printf("Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model); */
         /*        fprintf(ficlog,"Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model); */
         /*      } */
       }
    
       /* ------ Other prevalence ratios------------ */
   
       /* Computes prevalence between agemin (i.e minimal age computed) and no more ageminpar */
   
       prevalence(probs, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
       /*  printf("ageminpar=%f, agemax=%f, s[lastpass][imx]=%d, agev[lastpass][imx]=%f, nlstate=%d, imx=%d,  mint[lastpass][imx]=%f, anint[lastpass][imx]=%f,dateprev1=%f, dateprev2=%f, firstpass=%d, lastpass=%d\n",\
           ageminpar, agemax, s[lastpass][imx], agev[lastpass][imx], nlstate, imx, mint[lastpass][imx],anint[lastpass][imx], dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
       */
   
       if (mobilav!=0) {
         mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
         if (movingaverage(probs, bage, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
           fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
           printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
         }
       }
   
   
       /*---------- Health expectancies, no variances ------------*/
   
       strcpy(filerese,"e");
       strcat(filerese,fileres);
       if((ficreseij=fopen(filerese,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);
       }
       printf("Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);
       /*for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
         for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*/
             
       for (k=1; k <= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff); k++){
           fprintf(ficreseij,"\n#****** ");
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
             fprintf(ficreseij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           }
           fprintf(ficreseij,"******\n");
   
           eij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
           evsij(eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k, estepm, strstart);  
         
           free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
         /*}*/
       }
       fclose(ficreseij);
   
   
       /*---------- Health expectancies and variances ------------*/
   
   
       strcpy(filerest,"t");
       strcat(filerest,fileres);
       if((ficrest=fopen(filerest,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;
       }
       printf("Computing Total Life expectancies with their standard errors: file '%s' \n", filerest); 
       fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Total Life expectancies with their standard errors: file '%s' \n", filerest); 
   
   
       strcpy(fileresstde,"stde");
       strcat(fileresstde,fileres);
       if((ficresstdeij=fopen(fileresstde,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with Health Exp. and std errors resultfile: %s\n", fileresstde); exit(0);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Health Exp. and std errors resultfile: %s\n", fileresstde); exit(0);
       }
       printf("Computing Health Expectancies and standard errors: result on file '%s' \n", fileresstde);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Health Expectancies and standard errors: result on file '%s' \n", fileresstde);
   
       strcpy(filerescve,"cve");
       strcat(filerescve,fileres);
       if((ficrescveij=fopen(filerescve,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with Covar. Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerescve); exit(0);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Covar. Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerescve); exit(0);
       }
       printf("Computing Covar. of Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerescve);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Covar. of Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerescve);
   
       strcpy(fileresv,"v");
       strcat(fileresv,fileres);
       if((ficresvij=fopen(fileresv,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);
       }
       printf("Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);
   
       /*for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
         for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*/
             
       for (k=1; k <= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff); k++){
           fprintf(ficrest,"\n#****** ");
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
             fprintf(ficrest,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           fprintf(ficrest,"******\n");
   
           fprintf(ficresstdeij,"\n#****** ");
           fprintf(ficrescveij,"\n#****** ");
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
             fprintf(ficresstdeij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
             fprintf(ficrescveij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           }
           fprintf(ficresstdeij,"******\n");
           fprintf(ficrescveij,"******\n");
   
           fprintf(ficresvij,"\n#****** ");
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
             fprintf(ficresvij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           fprintf(ficresvij,"******\n");
   
           eij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
           cvevsij(eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k, estepm, delti, matcov, strstart);  
           /*
            */
           /* goto endfree; */
    
           vareij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
           pstamp(ficrest);
   
   
           for(vpopbased=0; vpopbased <= popbased; vpopbased++){ /* Done for vpopbased=0 and vpopbased=1 if popbased==1*/
             oldm=oldms;savm=savms; /* Segmentation fault */
             cptcod= 0; /* To be deleted */
             varevsij(optionfilefiname, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k, estepm, cptcov,cptcod,vpopbased,mobilav, strstart); /* cptcod not initialized Intel */
             fprintf(ficrest,"# Total life expectancy with std error and decomposition into time to be expected in each health state\n#  (weighted average of eij where weights are ");
             if(vpopbased==1)
               fprintf(ficrest,"the age specific prevalence observed (cross-sectionally) in the population i.e cross-sectionally\n in each health state (popbased=1) (mobilav=%d)\n",mobilav);
             else
               fprintf(ficrest,"the age specific period (stable) prevalences in each health state \n");
             fprintf(ficrest,"# Age e.. (std) ");
             for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrest,"e.%d (std) ",i);
             fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
   
             epj=vector(1,nlstate+1);
             for(age=bage; age <=fage ;age++){
               prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);
               if (vpopbased==1) {
                 if(mobilav ==0){
                   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                     prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][k];
                 }else{ /* mobilav */ 
                   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                     prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][k];
                 }
               }
           
               fprintf(ficrest," %4.0f",age);
               for(j=1, epj[nlstate+1]=0.;j <=nlstate;j++){
                 for(i=1, epj[j]=0.;i <=nlstate;i++) {
                   epj[j] += prlim[i][i]*eij[i][j][(int)age];
                   /*  printf("%lf %lf ", prlim[i][i] ,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
                 }
                 epj[nlstate+1] +=epj[j];
               }
   
               for(i=1, vepp=0.;i <=nlstate;i++)
                 for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++)
                   vepp += vareij[i][j][(int)age];
               fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[nlstate+1],sqrt(vepp));
               for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++){
                 fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[j],sqrt(vareij[j][j][(int)age]));
               }
               fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
             }
           }
           free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
           free_ma3x(vareij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
           free_vector(epj,1,nlstate+1);
         /*}*/
       }
       free_vector(weight,1,n);
       free_imatrix(Tvard,1,NCOVMAX,1,2);
       free_imatrix(s,1,maxwav+1,1,n);
       free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n); 
       free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);
       free_ivector(cod,1,n);
       free_ivector(tab,1,NCOVMAX);
       fclose(ficresstdeij);
       fclose(ficrescveij);
       fclose(ficresvij);
       fclose(ficrest);
       fclose(ficpar);
     
       /*------- Variance of period (stable) prevalence------*/   
   
       strcpy(fileresvpl,"vpl");
       strcat(fileresvpl,fileres);
       if((ficresvpl=fopen(fileresvpl,"w"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with variance of period (stable) prevalence  resultfile: %s\n", fileresvpl);
         exit(0);
       }
       printf("Computing Variance-covariance of period (stable) prevalence: file '%s' \n", fileresvpl);
   
       /*for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
         for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*/
             
       for (k=1; k <= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff); k++){
           fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n#****** ");
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
             fprintf(ficresvpl,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           fprintf(ficresvpl,"******\n");
         
           varpl=matrix(1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
           varprevlim(fileres, varpl, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k,strstart);
           free_matrix(varpl,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
         /*}*/
       }
   
       fclose(ficresvpl);
   
       /*---------- End : free ----------------*/
       if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
       free_ma3x(probs,1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     }  /* mle==-3 arrives here for freeing */
    /* endfree:*/
       free_matrix(prlim,1,nlstate,1,nlstate); /*here or after loop ? */
       free_matrix(pmmij,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
       free_matrix(oldms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
       free_matrix(newms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
       free_matrix(savms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
       free_matrix(covar,0,NCOVMAX,1,n);
       free_matrix(matcov,1,npar,1,npar);
       /*free_vector(delti,1,npar);*/
       free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel); 
       free_matrix(agev,1,maxwav,1,imx);
       free_ma3x(param,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
   
       free_ivector(ncodemax,1,NCOVMAX);
       free_ivector(Tvar,1,NCOVMAX);
       free_ivector(Tprod,1,NCOVMAX);
       free_ivector(Tvaraff,1,NCOVMAX);
       free_ivector(Tage,1,NCOVMAX);
   
       free_imatrix(nbcode,0,NCOVMAX,0,NCOVMAX);
       free_imatrix(codtab,1,100,1,10);
     fflush(fichtm);
     fflush(ficgp);
     
   
     if((nberr >0) || (nbwarn>0)){
       printf("End of Imach with %d errors and/or %d warnings\n",nberr,nbwarn);
       fprintf(ficlog,"End of Imach with %d errors and/or warnings %d\n",nberr,nbwarn);
     }else{
       printf("End of Imach\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"End of Imach\n");
     }
     printf("See log file on %s\n",filelog);
     /*  gettimeofday(&end_time, (struct timezone*)0);*/  /* after time */
     /*(void) gettimeofday(&end_time,&tzp);*/
     rend_time = time(NULL);  
     end_time = *localtime(&rend_time);
     /* tml = *localtime(&end_time.tm_sec); */
     strcpy(strtend,asctime(&end_time));
     printf("Local time at start %s\nLocal time at end   %s",strstart, strtend); 
     fprintf(ficlog,"Local time at start %s\nLocal time at end   %s\n",strstart, strtend); 
     printf("Total time used %s\n", asc_diff_time(rend_time -rstart_time,tmpout));
   
     printf("Total time was %.0lf Sec.\n", difftime(rend_time,rstart_time));
     fprintf(ficlog,"Total time used %s\n", asc_diff_time(rend_time -rstart_time,tmpout));
     fprintf(ficlog,"Total time was %.0lf Sec.\n", difftime(rend_time,rstart_time));
     /*  printf("Total time was %d uSec.\n", total_usecs);*/
   /*   if(fileappend(fichtm,optionfilehtm)){ */
     fprintf(fichtm,"<br>Local time at start %s<br>Local time at end   %s<br>\n</body></html>",strstart, strtend);
     fclose(fichtm);
     fprintf(fichtmcov,"<br>Local time at start %s<br>Local time at end   %s<br>\n</body></html>",strstart, strtend);
     fclose(fichtmcov);
     fclose(ficgp);
     fclose(ficlog);
     /*------ End -----------*/
   
   
      printf("Before Current directory %s!\n",pathcd);
   #ifdef WIN32
      if (_chdir(pathcd) != 0)
              printf("Can't move to directory %s!\n",path);
      if(_getcwd(pathcd,MAXLINE) > 0)
   #else
      if(chdir(pathcd) != 0)
              printf("Can't move to directory %s!\n", path);
      if (getcwd(pathcd, MAXLINE) > 0)
   #endif 
       printf("Current directory %s!\n",pathcd);
     /*strcat(plotcmd,CHARSEPARATOR);*/
     sprintf(plotcmd,"gnuplot");
   #ifdef _WIN32
     sprintf(plotcmd,"\"%sgnuplot.exe\"",pathimach);
   #endif
     if(!stat(plotcmd,&info)){
       printf("Error or gnuplot program not found: '%s'\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
       if(!stat(getenv("GNUPLOTBIN"),&info)){
         printf("Error or gnuplot program not found: '%s' Environment GNUPLOTBIN not set.\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
       }else
         strcpy(pplotcmd,plotcmd);
   #ifdef __unix
       strcpy(plotcmd,GNUPLOTPROGRAM);
       if(!stat(plotcmd,&info)){
         printf("Error gnuplot program not found: '%s'\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
       }else
         strcpy(pplotcmd,plotcmd);
   #endif
     }else
       strcpy(pplotcmd,plotcmd);
     
     sprintf(plotcmd,"%s %s",pplotcmd, optionfilegnuplot);
     printf("Starting graphs with: '%s'\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
   
     if((outcmd=system(plotcmd)) != 0){
       printf("gnuplot command might not be in your path: '%s', err=%d\n", plotcmd, outcmd);
       printf("\n Trying if gnuplot resides on the same directory that IMaCh\n");
       sprintf(plotcmd,"%sgnuplot %s", pathimach, optionfilegnuplot);
       if((outcmd=system(plotcmd)) != 0)
         printf("\n Still a problem with gnuplot command %s, err=%d\n", plotcmd, outcmd);
     }
     printf(" Successful, please wait...");
     while (z[0] != 'q') {
       /* chdir(path); */
       printf("\nType e to edit results with your browser, g to graph again and q for exit: ");
       scanf("%s",z);
   /*     if (z[0] == 'c') system("./imach"); */
       if (z[0] == 'e') {
   #ifdef __APPLE__
         sprintf(pplotcmd, "open %s", optionfilehtm);
   #elif __linux
         sprintf(pplotcmd, "xdg-open %s", optionfilehtm);
   #else
         sprintf(pplotcmd, "%s", optionfilehtm);
   #endif
         printf("Starting browser with: %s",pplotcmd);fflush(stdout);
         system(pplotcmd);
       }
       else if (z[0] == 'g') system(plotcmd);
       else if (z[0] == 'q') exit(0);
     }
     end:
     while (z[0] != 'q') {
       printf("\nType  q for exiting: ");
       scanf("%s",z);
     }
   }

Removed from v.1.46  
changed lines
  Added in v.1.188


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