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Diff for /imach/src/imach.c between versions 1.200 and 1.218

-version 1.200, 2015/09/09 16:53:55
+version 1.218, 2016/02/12 11:29:23
  Line 1
  /* $Id$
    $State$
    $Log$
+   Revision 1.218  2016/02/12 11:29:23  brouard
+   Summary: 0.99 Back projections
+   Revision 1.217  2015/12/23 17:18:31  brouard
+   Summary: Experimental backcast
+   Revision 1.216  2015/12/18 17:32:11  brouard
+   Summary: 0.98r4 Warning and status=-2
+   Version 0.98r4 is now:
+    - displaying an error when status is -1, date of interview unknown and date of death known;
+    - permitting a status -2 when the vital status is unknown at a known date of right truncation.
+   Older changes concerning s=-2, dating from 2005 have been supersed.
+   Revision 1.215  2015/12/16 08:52:24  brouard
+   Summary: 0.98r4 working
+   Revision 1.214  2015/12/16 06:57:54  brouard
+   Summary: temporary not working
+   Revision 1.213  2015/12/11 18:22:17  brouard
+   Summary: 0.98r4
+   Revision 1.212  2015/11/21 12:47:24  brouard
+   Summary: minor typo
+   Revision 1.211  2015/11/21 12:41:11  brouard
+   Summary: 0.98r3 with some graph of projected cross-sectional
+   Author: Nicolas Brouard
+   Revision 1.210  2015/11/18 17:41:20  brouard
+   Summary: Start working on projected prevalences
+   Revision 1.209  2015/11/17 22:12:03  brouard
+   Summary: Adding ftolpl parameter
+   Author: N Brouard
+   We had difficulties to get smoothed confidence intervals. It was due
+   to the period prevalence which wasn't computed accurately. The inner
+   parameter ftolpl is now an outer parameter of the .imach parameter
+   file after estepm. If ftolpl is small 1.e-4 and estepm too,
+   computation are long.
+   Revision 1.208  2015/11/17 14:31:57  brouard
+   Summary: temporary
+   Revision 1.207  2015/10/27 17:36:57  brouard
+   *** empty log message ***
+   Revision 1.206  2015/10/24 07:14:11  brouard
+   *** empty log message ***
+   Revision 1.205  2015/10/23 15:50:53  brouard
+   Summary: 0.98r3 some clarification for graphs on likelihood contributions
+   Revision 1.204  2015/10/01 16:20:26  brouard
+   Summary: Some new graphs of contribution to likelihood
+   Revision 1.203  2015/09/30 17:45:14  brouard
+   Summary: looking at better estimation of the hessian
+   Also a better criteria for convergence to the period prevalence And
+   therefore adding the number of years needed to converge. (The
+   prevalence in any alive state shold sum to one
+   Revision 1.202  2015/09/22 19:45:16  brouard
+   Summary: Adding some overall graph on contribution to likelihood. Might change
+   Revision 1.201  2015/09/15 17:34:58  brouard
+   Summary: 0.98r0
+   - Some new graphs like suvival functions
+   - Some bugs fixed like model=1+age+V2.
    Revision 1.200  2015/09/09 16:53:55  brouard
    Summary: Big bug thanks to Flavia
- Line 579
+ Line 654
    hPijx.
    Also this programme outputs the covariance matrix of the parameters but also
    of the life expectancies. It also computes the period (stable) prevalence.
+ Back prevalence and projections:
+  - back_prevalence_limit(double *p, double **bprlim, double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double ftolpl, int *ncvyearp, double dateprev1,double dateprev2, int firstpass, int lastpass, int mobilavproj)
+     Computes the back prevalence limit  for any combination     of covariate values k
+     at any age between ageminpar and agemaxpar and returns it in **bprlim. In the loops,
+    - **bprevalim(**bprlim, ***mobaverage, nlstate, *p, age, **oldm, **savm, **dnewm, **doldm, **dsavm, ftolpl, ncvyearp, k);
+  - hBijx Back Probability to be in state i at age x-h being in j at x
+    Computes for any combination of covariates k and any age between bage and fage
+    p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+                         oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
+          - hbxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);
+      Computes the transition matrix starting at age 'age' over
+      'nhstepm*hstepm*stepm' months (i.e. until
+      age (in years)  age+nhstepm*hstepm*stepm/12) by multiplying
+      nhstepm*hstepm matrices. Returns p3mat[i][j][h] after calling
+      p3mat[i][j][h]=matprod2(newm, bmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate,prevacurrent, dnewm, doldm, dsavm,ij),\
+,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm);
    Authors: Nicolas Brouard (brouard@ined.fr) and Agnès Lièvre (lievre@ined.fr).
             Institut national d'études démographiques, Paris.
    This software have been partly granted by Euro-REVES, a concerted action
- Line 638
+ Line 730
  /* #define DEBUG */
  /* #define DEBUGBRENT */
+ /* #define DEBUGLINMIN */
+ /* #define DEBUGHESS */
+ #define DEBUGHESSIJ
+ /* #define LINMINORIGINAL  /\* Don't use loop on scale in linmin (accepting nan)*\/ */
  #define POWELL /* Instead of NLOPT */
  #define POWELLF1F3 /* Skip test */
  /* #define POWELLORIGINAL /\* Don't use Directest to decide new direction but original Powell test *\/ */
- Line 709  typedef struct {
+ Line 805  typedef struct {
  #define NDEATHMAX 8 /**< Maximum number of dead states (for func) */
  #define NCOVMAX 20 /**< Maximum number of covariates, including generated covariates V1*V2 */
  #define codtabm(h,k)  (1 & (h-1) >> (k-1))+1
+ /*#define decodtabm(h,k,cptcoveff)= (h <= (1<<cptcoveff)?(((h-1) >> (k-1)) & 1) +1 : -1)*/
+ #define decodtabm(h,k,cptcoveff) (((h-1) >> (k-1)) & 1) +1
  #define MAXN 20000
  #define YEARM 12. /**< Number of months per year */
- #define AGESUP 130
+ /* #define AGESUP 130 */
+ #define AGESUP 150
+ #define AGEMARGE 25 /* Marge for agemin and agemax for(iage=agemin-AGEMARGE; iage <= agemax+3+AGEMARGE; iage++) */
  #define AGEBASE 40
  #define AGEOVERFLOW 1.e20
  #define AGEGOMP 10 /**< Minimal age for Gompertz adjustment */
- Line 729  typedef struct {
+ Line 829  typedef struct {
  /* $State$ */
  #include "version.h"
  char version[]=__IMACH_VERSION__;
- char copyright[]="September 2015,INED-EUROREVES-Institut de longevite-Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research 25293121), Intel Software 2015";
+ char copyright[]="October 2015,INED-EUROREVES-Institut de longevite-Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research 25293121), Intel Software 2015";
  char fullversion[]="$Revision$ $Date$";
  char strstart[80];
  char optionfilext[10], optionfilefiname[FILENAMELENGTH];
- Line 743  int cptcovage=0; /**< Number of covariat
+ Line 843  int cptcovage=0; /**< Number of covariat
  int cptcovprodnoage=0; /**< Number of covariate products without age */
  int cptcoveff=0; /* Total number of covariates to vary for printing results */
  int cptcov=0; /* Working variable */
+ int ncovcombmax=NCOVMAX; /* Maximum calculated number of covariate combination = pow(2, cptcoveff) */
  int npar=NPARMAX;
  int nlstate=2; /* Number of live states */
  int ndeath=1; /* Number of dead states */
- Line 765  double jmean=1; /* Mean space between 2
+ Line 866  double jmean=1; /* Mean space between 2
  double **matprod2(); /* test */
  double **oldm, **newm, **savm; /* Working pointers to matrices */
  double **oldms, **newms, **savms; /* Fixed working pointers to matrices */
+ double   **ddnewms, **ddoldms, **ddsavms; /* for freeing later */
  /*FILE *fic ; */ /* Used in readdata only */
- FILE *ficpar, *ficparo,*ficres, *ficresp, *ficrespl, *ficrespij, *ficrest,*ficresf,*ficrespop;
+ FILE *ficpar, *ficparo,*ficres, *ficresp, *ficresphtm, *ficresphtmfr, *ficrespl, *ficresplb,*ficrespij, *ficrespijb, *ficrest,*ficresf, *ficresfb,*ficrespop;
  FILE *ficlog, *ficrespow;
  int globpr=0; /* Global variable for printing or not */
  double fretone; /* Only one call to likelihood */
- Line 789  char fileresv[FILENAMELENGTH];
+ Line 892  char fileresv[FILENAMELENGTH];
  FILE  *ficresvpl;
  char fileresvpl[FILENAMELENGTH];
  char title[MAXLINE];
- char optionfile[FILENAMELENGTH], datafile[FILENAMELENGTH],  filerespl[FILENAMELENGTH];
+ char optionfile[FILENAMELENGTH], datafile[FILENAMELENGTH],  filerespl[FILENAMELENGTH],  fileresplb[FILENAMELENGTH];
  char plotcmd[FILENAMELENGTH], pplotcmd[FILENAMELENGTH];
  char tmpout[FILENAMELENGTH],  tmpout2[FILENAMELENGTH];
  char command[FILENAMELENGTH];
  int  outcmd=0;
- char fileres[FILENAMELENGTH], filerespij[FILENAMELENGTH], filereso[FILENAMELENGTH], rfileres[FILENAMELENGTH];
+ char fileres[FILENAMELENGTH], filerespij[FILENAMELENGTH], filerespijb[FILENAMELENGTH], filereso[FILENAMELENGTH], rfileres[FILENAMELENGTH];
+ char fileresu[FILENAMELENGTH]; /* fileres without r in front */
  char filelog[FILENAMELENGTH]; /* Log file */
  char filerest[FILENAMELENGTH];
  char fileregp[FILENAMELENGTH];
- Line 872  int *ncodemaxwundef;  /* ncodemax[j]= Nu
+ Line 975  int *ncodemaxwundef;  /* ncodemax[j]= Nu
                               covariate for which somebody answered including
                               undefined. Usually 3: -1, 0 and 1. */
  double **agev,*moisnais, *annais, *moisdc, *andc,**mint, **anint;
- double **pmmij, ***probs;
+ double **pmmij, ***probs; /* Global pointer */
+ double ***mobaverage; /* New global variable */
  double *ageexmed,*agecens;
  double dateintmean=0;
- Line 920  static int split( char *path, char *dirc
+ Line 1024  static int split( char *path, char *dirc
      }
      /* got dirc from getcwd*/
      printf(" DIRC = %s \n",dirc);
-   } else {                              /* strip direcotry from path */
+   } else {                              /* strip directory from path */
      ss++;                               /* after this, the filename */
      l2 = strlen( ss );                  /* length of filename */
      if ( l2 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );
- Line 1328  char *subdirf3(char fileres[], char *pre
+ Line 1432  char *subdirf3(char fileres[], char *pre
    strcat(tmpout,fileres);
    return tmpout;
  }
+ /*************** function subdirfext ***********/
+ char *subdirfext(char fileres[], char *preop, char *postop)
+ {
+   strcpy(tmpout,preop);
+   strcat(tmpout,fileres);
+   strcat(tmpout,postop);
+   return tmpout;
+ }
+ /*************** function subdirfext3 ***********/
+ char *subdirfext3(char fileres[], char *preop, char *postop)
+ {
+   /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
+   strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
+   strcat(tmpout,"/");
+   strcat(tmpout,preop);
+   strcat(tmpout,fileres);
+   strcat(tmpout,postop);
+   return tmpout;
+ }
  char *asc_diff_time(long time_sec, char ascdiff[])
  {
    long sec_left, days, hours, minutes;
- Line 1592  void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int
+ Line 1719  void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int
    double xx,xmin,bx,ax;
    double fx,fb,fa;
-   double scale=10., axs, xxs, xxss; /* Scale added for infinity */
+ #ifdef LINMINORIGINAL
+ #else
+   double scale=10., axs, xxs; /* Scale added for infinity */
+ #endif
    ncom=n;
    pcom=vector(1,n);
    xicom=vector(1,n);
    nrfunc=func;
    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
      pcom[j]=p[j];
-     xicom[j]=xi[j];
+     xicom[j]=xi[j]; /* Former scale xi[j] of currrent direction i */
    }
-   /* axs=0.0; */
+ #ifdef LINMINORIGINAL
-   /* xxss=1; /\* 1 and using scale *\/ */
+   xx=1.;
-   xxs=1;
+ #else
-   /* do{ */
+   axs=0.0;
-     ax=0.;
+   xxs=1.;
+   do{
      xx= xxs;
+ #endif
+     ax=0.;
      mnbrak(&ax,&xx,&bx,&fa,&fx,&fb,f1dim);  /* Outputs: xtx[j]=pcom[j]+(*xx)*xicom[j]; fx=f(xtx[j]) */
      /* brackets with inputs ax=0 and xx=1, but points, pcom=p, and directions values, xicom=xi, are sent via f1dim(x) */
      /* xt[x,j]=pcom[j]+x*xicom[j]  f(ax) = f(xt(a,j=1,n)) = f(p(j) + 0 * xi(j)) and  f(xx) = f(xt(x, j=1,n)) = f(p(j) + 1 * xi(j))   */
- Line 1616  void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int
+ Line 1749  void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int
      /* Given input ax=axs and xx=xxs, xx might be too far from ax to get a finite f(xx) */
      /* Searches on line, outputs (ax, xx, bx) such that fx < min(fa and fb) */
      /* Find a bracket a,x,b in direction n=xi ie xicom, order may change. Scale is [0:xxs*xi[j]] et non plus  [0:xi[j]]*/
-   /*   if (fx != fx){ */
+ #ifdef LINMINORIGINAL
-   /*    xxs=xxs/scale; /\* Trying a smaller xx, closer to initial ax=0 *\/ */
+ #else
-   /*    printf("\nLinmin NAN : input [axs=%lf:xxs=%lf], mnbrak outputs fx=%lf <(fb=%lf and fa=%lf) with xx=%lf in [ax=%lf:bx=%lf] \n",  axs, xxs, fx,fb, fa, xx, ax, bx); */
+     if (fx != fx){
-   /*   } */
+         xxs=xxs/scale; /* Trying a smaller xx, closer to initial ax=0 */
-   /* }while(fx != fx); */
+         printf("|");
+         fprintf(ficlog,"|");
+ #ifdef DEBUGLINMIN
+         printf("\nLinmin NAN : input [axs=%lf:xxs=%lf], mnbrak outputs fx=%lf <(fb=%lf and fa=%lf) with xx=%lf in [ax=%lf:bx=%lf] \n",  axs, xxs, fx,fb, fa, xx, ax, bx);
+ #endif
+     }
+   }while(fx != fx);
+ #endif
  #ifdef DEBUGLINMIN
    printf("\nLinmin after mnbrak: ax=%12.7f xx=%12.7f bx=%12.7f fa=%12.2f fx=%12.2f fb=%12.2f\n",  ax,xx,bx,fa,fx,fb);
+   fprintf(ficlog,"\nLinmin after mnbrak: ax=%12.7f xx=%12.7f bx=%12.7f fa=%12.2f fx=%12.2f fb=%12.2f\n",  ax,xx,bx,fa,fx,fb);
  #endif
    *fret=brent(ax,xx,bx,f1dim,TOL,&xmin); /* Giving a bracketting triplet (ax, xx, bx), find a minimum, xmin, according to f1dim, *fret(xmin),*/
    /* fa = f(p[j] + ax * xi[j]), fx = f(p[j] + xx * xi[j]), fb = f(p[j] + bx * xi[j]) */
- Line 1636  void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int
+ Line 1777  void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int
  #endif
  #ifdef DEBUGLINMIN
    printf("linmin end ");
+   fprintf(ficlog,"linmin end ");
  #endif
    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
-     /* printf(" before xi[%d]=%12.8f", j,xi[j]); */
+ #ifdef LINMINORIGINAL
-     xi[j] *= xmin; /* xi rescaled by xmin: if xmin=-1.237 and xi=(1,0,...,0) xi=(-1.237,0,...,0) */
+     xi[j] *= xmin;
-     /* if(xxs <1.0) */
+ #else
-     /*   printf(" after xi[%d]=%12.8f, xmin=%12.8f, ax=%12.8f, xx=%12.8f, bx=%12.8f, xxs=%12.8f", j,xi[j], xmin, ax, xx, bx,xxs ); */
+ #ifdef DEBUGLINMIN
+     if(xxs <1.0)
+       printf(" before xi[%d]=%12.8f", j,xi[j]);
+ #endif
+     xi[j] *= xmin*xxs; /* xi rescaled by xmin and number of loops: if xmin=-1.237 and xi=(1,0,...,0) xi=(-1.237,0,...,0) */
+ #ifdef DEBUGLINMIN
+     if(xxs <1.0)
+       printf(" after xi[%d]=%12.8f, xmin=%12.8f, ax=%12.8f, xx=%12.8f, bx=%12.8f, xxs=%12.8f", j,xi[j], xmin, ax, xx, bx,xxs );
+ #endif
+ #endif
      p[j] += xi[j]; /* Parameters values are updated accordingly */
    }
-   /* printf("\n"); */
  #ifdef DEBUGLINMIN
+   printf("\n");
    printf("Comparing last *frec(xmin=%12.8f)=%12.8f from Brent and frec(0.)=%12.8f \n", xmin, *fret, (*func)(p));
+   fprintf(ficlog,"Comparing last *frec(xmin=%12.8f)=%12.8f from Brent and frec(0.)=%12.8f \n", xmin, *fret, (*func)(p));
    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
-     printf(" xi[%d]= %12.7f p[%d]= %12.7f",j,xi[j],j,p[j]);
+     printf(" xi[%d]= %14.10f p[%d]= %12.7f",j,xi[j],j,p[j]);
-     if(j % ncovmodel == 0)
+     fprintf(ficlog," xi[%d]= %14.10f p[%d]= %12.7f",j,xi[j],j,p[j]);
+     if(j % ncovmodel == 0){
        printf("\n");
+       fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+     }
    }
+ #else
  #endif
    free_vector(xicom,1,n);
    free_vector(pcom,1,n);
- Line 1685  void powell(double p[], double **xi, int
+ Line 1841  void powell(double p[], double **xi, int
    xits=vector(1,n);
    *fret=(*func)(p);
    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) pt[j]=p[j];
-     rcurr_time = time(NULL);
+   rcurr_time = time(NULL);
    for (*iter=1;;++(*iter)) {
      fp=(*fret); /* From former iteration or initial value */
      ibig=0;
- Line 1729  void powell(double p[], double **xi, int
+ Line 1885  void powell(double p[], double **xi, int
        for (j=1;j<=n;j++) xit[j]=xi[j][i]; /* Directions stored from previous iteration with previous scales */
        fptt=(*fret);
  #ifdef DEBUG
-           printf("fret=%lf, %lf, %lf \n", *fret, *fret, *fret);
+       printf("fret=%lf, %lf, %lf \n", *fret, *fret, *fret);
-           fprintf(ficlog, "fret=%lf, %lf, %lf \n", *fret, *fret, *fret);
+       fprintf(ficlog, "fret=%lf, %lf, %lf \n", *fret, *fret, *fret);
  #endif
-           printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout); /* print direction (parameter) i */
+       printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout); /* print direction (parameter) i */
        fprintf(ficlog,"%d",i);fflush(ficlog);
        linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func); /* Point p[n]. xit[n] has been loaded for direction i as input.*/
                                      /* Outputs are fret(new point p) p is updated and xit rescaled */
- Line 1830  void powell(double p[], double **xi, int
+ Line 1986  void powell(double p[], double **xi, int
        t=2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del); /* Intel compiler doesn't work on one line; bug reported */
        t= t- del*SQR(fp-fptt);
  #endif
-       directest = fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt - 2.0 * del; /* If del was big enough we change it for a new direction */
+       directest = fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt - 2.0 * del; /* If delta was big enough we change it for a new direction */
  #ifdef DEBUG
        printf("t1= %.12lf, t2= %.12lf, t=%.12lf  directest=%.12lf\n", 2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del),del*SQR(fp-fptt),t,directest);
        fprintf(ficlog,"t1= %.12lf, t2= %.12lf, t=%.12lf directest=%.12lf\n", 2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del),del*SQR(fp-fptt),t,directest);
- Line 1845  void powell(double p[], double **xi, int
+ Line 2001  void powell(double p[], double **xi, int
        if (t < 0.0) { /* Then we use it for new direction */
  #else
        if (directest*t < 0.0) { /* Contradiction between both tests */
-         printf("directest= %.12lf, t= %.12lf, f1= %.12lf,f2= %.12lf,f3= %.12lf, del= %.12lf\n",directest, t, fp,(*fret),fptt,del);
+         printf("directest= %.12lf (if <0 we include P0 Pn as new direction), t= %.12lf, f1= %.12lf,f2= %.12lf,f3= %.12lf, del= %.12lf\n",directest, t, fp,(*fret),fptt,del);
          printf("f1-2f2+f3= %.12lf, f1-f2-del= %.12lf, f1-f3= %.12lf\n",fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt, fp -(*fret) -del, fp-fptt);
-         fprintf(ficlog,"directest= %.12lf, t= %.12lf, f1= %.12lf,f2= %.12lf,f3= %.12lf, del= %.12lf\n",directest, t, fp,(*fret),fptt, del);
+         fprintf(ficlog,"directest= %.12lf (if <0 we include P0 Pn as new direction), t= %.12lf, f1= %.12lf,f2= %.12lf,f3= %.12lf, del= %.12lf\n",directest, t, fp,(*fret),fptt, del);
          fprintf(ficlog,"f1-2f2+f3= %.12lf, f1-f2-del= %.12lf, f1-f3= %.12lf\n",fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt, fp -(*fret) -del, fp-fptt);
        }
        if (directest < 0.0) { /* Then we use it for new direction */
- Line 1855  void powell(double p[], double **xi, int
+ Line 2011  void powell(double p[], double **xi, int
  #ifdef DEBUGLINMIN
          printf("Before linmin in direction P%d-P0\n",n);
          for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
-           printf("Before xit[%d]= %12.7f p[%d]= %12.7f",j,xit[j],j,p[j]);
+           printf(" Before xit[%d]= %12.7f p[%d]= %12.7f",j,xit[j],j,p[j]);
-           if(j % ncovmodel == 0)
+           fprintf(ficlog," Before xit[%d]= %12.7f p[%d]= %12.7f",j,xit[j],j,p[j]);
+           if(j % ncovmodel == 0){
              printf("\n");
+             fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+           }
          }
  #endif
          linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func); /* computes minimum on the extrapolated direction: changes p and rescales xit.*/
  #ifdef DEBUGLINMIN
          for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
            printf("After xit[%d]= %12.7f p[%d]= %12.7f",j,xit[j],j,p[j]);
-           if(j % ncovmodel == 0)
+           fprintf(ficlog,"After xit[%d]= %12.7f p[%d]= %12.7f",j,xit[j],j,p[j]);
+           if(j % ncovmodel == 0){
              printf("\n");
+             fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+           }
          }
  #endif
          for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
- Line 1895  void powell(double p[], double **xi, int
+ Line 2057  void powell(double p[], double **xi, int
  /**** Prevalence limit (stable or period prevalence)  ****************/
- double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double x[], double age, double **oldm, double **savm, double ftolpl, int ij)
+ double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double x[], double age, double **oldm, double **savm, double ftolpl, int *ncvyear, int ij)
  {
-   /* Computes the prevalence limit in each live state at age x by left multiplying the unit
+   /* Computes the prevalence limit in each live state at age x and for covariate ij by left multiplying the unit
-      matrix by transitions matrix until convergence is reached */
+      matrix by transitions matrix until convergence is reached with precision ftolpl */
+   /* Wx= Wx-1 Px-1= Wx-2 Px-2 Px-1  = Wx-n Px-n ... Px-2 Px-1 I */
+   /* Wx is row vector: population in state 1, population in state 2, population dead */
+   /* or prevalence in state 1, prevalence in state 2, 0 */
+   /* newm is the matrix after multiplications, its rows are identical at a factor */
+   /* Initial matrix pimij */
+   /* {0.85204250825084937, 0.13044499163996345, 0.017512500109187184, */
+   /* 0.090851990222114765, 0.88271245433047185, 0.026435555447413338, */
+   /*  0,                   0                  , 1} */
+   /*
+    * and after some iteration: */
+   /* {0.45504275246439968, 0.42731458730878791, 0.11764266022681241, */
+   /*  0.45201005341706885, 0.42865420071559901, 0.11933574586733192, */
+   /*  0,                   0                  , 1} */
+   /* And prevalence by suppressing the deaths are close to identical rows in prlim: */
+   /* {0.51571254859325999, 0.4842874514067399, */
+   /*  0.51326036147820708, 0.48673963852179264} */
+   /* If we start from prlim again, prlim tends to a constant matrix */
    int i, ii,j,k;
-   double min, max, maxmin, maxmax,sumnew=0.;
+   double *min, *max, *meandiff, maxmax,sumnew=0.;
    /* double **matprod2(); */ /* test */
-   double **out, cov[NCOVMAX+1], **pmij();
+   double **out, cov[NCOVMAX+1], **pmij(); /* **pmmij is a global variable feeded with oldms etc */
    double **newm;
-   double agefin, delaymax=50 ; /* Max number of years to converge */
+   double agefin, delaymax=200. ; /* 100 Max number of years to converge */
+   int ncvloop=0;
+   min=vector(1,nlstate);
+   max=vector(1,nlstate);
+   meandiff=vector(1,nlstate);
+         /* Starting with matrix unity */
    for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
      for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
        oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
- Line 1915  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nl
+ Line 2100  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nl
    cov[1]=1.;
    /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */
+   /* Start at agefin= age, computes the matrix of passage and loops decreasing agefin until convergence is reached */
    for(agefin=age-stepm/YEARM; agefin>=age-delaymax; agefin=agefin-stepm/YEARM){
+     ncvloop++;
      newm=savm;
      /* Covariates have to be included here again */
      cov[2]=agefin;
- Line 1923  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nl
+ Line 2110  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nl
        cov[3]= agefin*agefin;;
      for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {
        /* cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[k])]; */
+                         /* Here comes the value of the covariate 'ij' */
        cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,k)];
        /* printf("prevalim ij=%d k=%d Tvar[%d]=%d nbcode=%d cov=%lf codtabm(%d,Tvar[%d])=%d \n",ij,k, k, Tvar[k],nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[k])],cov[2+k], ij, k, codtabm(ij,Tvar[k])]); */
      }
- Line 1938  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nl
+ Line 2126  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nl
      /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3]);*/
      /* savm=pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate); */
      /* out=matprod2(newm, pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate),1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm); /\* Bug Valgrind *\/ */
+                 /* age and covariate values of ij are in 'cov' */
      out=matprod2(newm, pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate),1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm); /* Bug Valgrind */
      savm=oldm;
      oldm=newm;
-     maxmax=0.;
-     for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++){
+     for(j=1; j<=nlstate; j++){
-       min=1.;
+       max[j]=0.;
-       max=0.;
+       min[j]=1.;
-       for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++) {
+     }
-         sumnew=0;
+     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++){
-         for(k=1; k<=ndeath; k++) sumnew+=newm[i][nlstate+k];
+       sumnew=0;
+       for(k=1; k<=ndeath; k++) sumnew+=newm[i][nlstate+k];
+       for(j=1; j<=nlstate; j++){
          prlim[i][j]= newm[i][j]/(1-sumnew);
-         /*printf(" prevalim i=%d, j=%d, prmlim[%d][%d]=%f, agefin=%d \n", i, j, i, j, prlim[i][j],(int)agefin);*/
+         max[j]=FMAX(max[j],prlim[i][j]);
-         max=FMAX(max,prlim[i][j]);
+         min[j]=FMIN(min[j],prlim[i][j]);
-         min=FMIN(min,prlim[i][j]);
        }
-       maxmin=max-min;
+     }
-       maxmax=FMAX(maxmax,maxmin);
+     maxmax=0.;
+     for(j=1; j<=nlstate; j++){
+       meandiff[j]=(max[j]-min[j])/(max[j]+min[j])*2.; /* mean difference for each column */
+       maxmax=FMAX(maxmax,meandiff[j]);
+       /* printf(" age= %d meandiff[%d]=%f, agefin=%d max[%d]=%f min[%d]=%f maxmax=%f\n", (int)age, j, meandiff[j],(int)agefin, j, max[j], j, min[j],maxmax); */
      } /* j loop */
+     *ncvyear= (int)age- (int)agefin;
+     /* printf("maxmax=%lf maxmin=%lf ncvloop=%d, age=%d, agefin=%d ncvyear=%d \n", maxmax, maxmin, ncvloop, (int)age, (int)agefin, *ncvyear); */
      if(maxmax < ftolpl){
+       /* printf("maxmax=%lf ncvloop=%ld, age=%d, agefin=%d ncvyear=%d \n", maxmax, ncvloop, (int)age, (int)agefin, *ncvyear); */
+       free_vector(min,1,nlstate);
+       free_vector(max,1,nlstate);
+       free_vector(meandiff,1,nlstate);
        return prlim;
      }
    } /* age loop */
+     /* After some age loop it doesn't converge */
+   printf("Warning: the stable prevalence at age %d did not converge with the required precision (%g > ftolpl=%g) within %.0f years. Try to lower 'ftolpl'. \n\
+ Earliest age to start was %d-%d=%d, ncvloop=%d, ncvyear=%d\n", (int)age, maxmax, ftolpl, delaymax, (int)age, (int)delaymax, (int)agefin, ncvloop, *ncvyear);
+   /* Try to lower 'ftol', for example from 1.e-8 to 6.e-9.\n", ftolpl, (int)age, (int)delaymax, (int)agefin, ncvloop, (int)age-(int)agefin); */
+   free_vector(min,1,nlstate);
+   free_vector(max,1,nlstate);
+   free_vector(meandiff,1,nlstate);
    return prlim; /* should not reach here */
  }
+  /**** Back Prevalence limit (stable or period prevalence)  ****************/
+  /* double **bprevalim(double **bprlim, double ***prevacurrent, int nlstate, double x[], double age, double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double **oldm, double **savm, double **dnewm, double **doldm, double **dsavm, double ftolpl, int *ncvyear, int ij) */
+  /* double **bprevalim(double **bprlim, double ***prevacurrent, int nlstate, double x[], double age, double **oldm, double **savm, double **dnewm, double **doldm, double **dsavm, double ftolpl, int *ncvyear, int ij) */
+  double **bprevalim(double **bprlim, double ***prevacurrent, int nlstate, double x[], double age, double ftolpl, int *ncvyear, int ij)
+ {
+   /* Computes the prevalence limit in each live state at age x and covariate ij by left multiplying the unit
+      matrix by transitions matrix until convergence is reached with precision ftolpl */
+   /* Wx= Wx-1 Px-1= Wx-2 Px-2 Px-1  = Wx-n Px-n ... Px-2 Px-1 I */
+   /* Wx is row vector: population in state 1, population in state 2, population dead */
+   /* or prevalence in state 1, prevalence in state 2, 0 */
+   /* newm is the matrix after multiplications, its rows are identical at a factor */
+   /* Initial matrix pimij */
+   /* {0.85204250825084937, 0.13044499163996345, 0.017512500109187184, */
+   /* 0.090851990222114765, 0.88271245433047185, 0.026435555447413338, */
+   /*  0,                   0                  , 1} */
+   /*
+    * and after some iteration: */
+   /* {0.45504275246439968, 0.42731458730878791, 0.11764266022681241, */
+   /*  0.45201005341706885, 0.42865420071559901, 0.11933574586733192, */
+   /*  0,                   0                  , 1} */
+   /* And prevalence by suppressing the deaths are close to identical rows in prlim: */
+   /* {0.51571254859325999, 0.4842874514067399, */
+   /*  0.51326036147820708, 0.48673963852179264} */
+   /* If we start from prlim again, prlim tends to a constant matrix */
+   int i, ii,j,k;
+   double *min, *max, *meandiff, maxmax,sumnew=0.;
+   /* double **matprod2(); */ /* test */
+   double **out, cov[NCOVMAX+1], **bmij();
+   double **newm;
+   double         **dnewm, **doldm, **dsavm;  /* for use */
+   double         **oldm, **savm;  /* for use */
+   double agefin, delaymax=200. ; /* 100 Max number of years to converge */
+   int ncvloop=0;
+   min=vector(1,nlstate);
+   max=vector(1,nlstate);
+   meandiff=vector(1,nlstate);
+         dnewm=ddnewms; doldm=ddoldms; dsavm=ddsavms;
+         oldm=oldms; savm=savms;
+         /* Starting with matrix unity */
+         for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
+                 for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+       oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
+     }
+   cov[1]=1.;
+   /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */
+   /* Start at agefin= age, computes the matrix of passage and loops decreasing agefin until convergence is reached */
+   /* for(agefin=age+stepm/YEARM; agefin<=age+delaymax; agefin=agefin+stepm/YEARM){ /\* A changer en age *\/ */
+   for(agefin=age; agefin<AGESUP; agefin=agefin+stepm/YEARM){ /* A changer en age */
+     ncvloop++;
+     newm=savm; /* oldm should be kept from previous iteration or unity at start */
+                 /* newm points to the allocated table savm passed by the function it can be written, savm could be reallocated */
+     /* Covariates have to be included here again */
+     cov[2]=agefin;
+     if(nagesqr==1)
+       cov[3]= agefin*agefin;;
+     for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {
+       /* cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[k])]; */
+       cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,k)];
+       /* printf("prevalim ij=%d k=%d Tvar[%d]=%d nbcode=%d cov=%lf codtabm(%d,Tvar[%d])=%d \n",ij,k, k, Tvar[k],nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[k])],cov[2+k], ij, k, codtabm(ij,Tvar[k])]); */
+     }
+     /*wrong? for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2]; */
+     /* for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+nagesqr+Tage[k]]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[k])]*cov[2]; */
+     for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+nagesqr+Tage[k]]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,k)]*cov[2];
+     for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++) /* Useless */
+       /* cov[2+nagesqr+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtabm(ij,Tvard[k][1])] * nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtabm(ij,Tvard[k][2])]; */
+       cov[2+nagesqr+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtabm(ij,k)] * nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtabm(ij,k)];
+     /*printf("ij=%d cptcovprod=%d tvar=%d ", ij, cptcovprod, Tvar[1]);*/
+     /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf cov[4]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3],cov[4]);*/
+     /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3]);*/
+     /* savm=pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate); */
+     /* out=matprod2(newm, pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate),1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm); /\* Bug Valgrind *\/ */
+                 /* ij should be linked to the correct index of cov */
+                 /* age and covariate values ij are in 'cov', but we need to pass
+                  * ij for the observed prevalence at age and status and covariate
+                  * number:  prevacurrent[(int)agefin][ii][ij]
+                  */
+     /* out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, bmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate,prevacurrent, ageminpar, agemaxpar, dnewm, doldm, dsavm,ij)); /\* Bug Valgrind *\/ */
+     /* out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, bmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate,prevacurrent, dnewm, doldm, dsavm,ij)); /\* Bug Valgrind *\/ */
+     out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, bmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate,prevacurrent,ij)); /* Bug Valgrind */
+     savm=oldm;
+     oldm=newm;
+     for(j=1; j<=nlstate; j++){
+       max[j]=0.;
+       min[j]=1.;
+     }
+     for(j=1; j<=nlstate; j++){
+       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++){
+                                 /* bprlim[i][j]= newm[i][j]/(1-sumnew); */
+                                 bprlim[i][j]= newm[i][j];
+                                 max[i]=FMAX(max[i],bprlim[i][j]); /* Max in line */
+                                 min[i]=FMIN(min[i],bprlim[i][j]);
+       }
+     }
+     maxmax=0.;
+     for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++){
+       meandiff[i]=(max[i]-min[i])/(max[i]+min[i])*2.; /* mean difference for each column */
+       maxmax=FMAX(maxmax,meandiff[i]);
+       /* printf("Back age= %d meandiff[%d]=%f, agefin=%d max[%d]=%f min[%d]=%f maxmax=%f\n", (int)age, i, meandiff[i],(int)agefin, i, max[i], i, min[i],maxmax); */
+     } /* j loop */
+     *ncvyear= -( (int)age- (int)agefin);
+     /* printf("Back maxmax=%lf ncvloop=%d, age=%d, agefin=%d ncvyear=%d \n", maxmax, ncvloop, (int)age, (int)agefin, *ncvyear);*/
+     if(maxmax < ftolpl){
+       printf("OK Back maxmax=%lf ncvloop=%d, age=%d, agefin=%d ncvyear=%d \n", maxmax, ncvloop, (int)age, (int)agefin, *ncvyear);
+       free_vector(min,1,nlstate);
+       free_vector(max,1,nlstate);
+       free_vector(meandiff,1,nlstate);
+       return bprlim;
+     }
+   } /* age loop */
+     /* After some age loop it doesn't converge */
+   printf("Warning: the back stable prevalence at age %d did not converge with the required precision (%g > ftolpl=%g) within %.0f years. Try to lower 'ftolpl'. \n\
+ Oldest age to start was %d-%d=%d, ncvloop=%d, ncvyear=%d\n", (int)age, maxmax, ftolpl, delaymax, (int)age, (int)delaymax, (int)agefin, ncvloop, *ncvyear);
+   /* Try to lower 'ftol', for example from 1.e-8 to 6.e-9.\n", ftolpl, (int)age, (int)delaymax, (int)agefin, ncvloop, (int)age-(int)agefin); */
+   free_vector(min,1,nlstate);
+   free_vector(max,1,nlstate);
+   free_vector(meandiff,1,nlstate);
+   return bprlim; /* should not reach here */
+ }
  /*************** transition probabilities ***************/
  double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate )
- Line 1985  double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov,
+ Line 2325  double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov,
    /*double t34;*/
    int i,j, nc, ii, jj;
-     for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
+         for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
-       for(j=1; j<i;j++){
+                 for(j=1; j<i;j++){
-         for (nc=1, lnpijopii=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
+                         for (nc=1, lnpijopii=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
-           /*lnpijopii += param[i][j][nc]*cov[nc];*/
+                                 /*lnpijopii += param[i][j][nc]*cov[nc];*/
-           lnpijopii += x[nc+((i-1)*(nlstate+ndeath-1)+j-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
+                                 lnpijopii += x[nc+((i-1)*(nlstate+ndeath-1)+j-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
- /*       printf("Int j<i s1=%.17e, lnpijopii=%.17e\n",s1,lnpijopii); */
+                                 /*       printf("Int j<i s1=%.17e, lnpijopii=%.17e\n",s1,lnpijopii); */
-         }
+                         }
-         ps[i][j]=lnpijopii; /* In fact ln(pij/pii) */
+                         ps[i][j]=lnpijopii; /* In fact ln(pij/pii) */
- /*      printf("s1=%.17e, lnpijopii=%.17e\n",s1,lnpijopii); */
+                         /*      printf("s1=%.17e, lnpijopii=%.17e\n",s1,lnpijopii); */
-       }
+                 }
-       for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+                 for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
-         for (nc=1, lnpijopii=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
+                         for (nc=1, lnpijopii=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
-           /*lnpijopii += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-2)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];*/
+                                 /*lnpijopii += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-2)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];*/
-           lnpijopii += x[nc + ((i-1)*(nlstate+ndeath-1)+(j-2))*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
+                                 lnpijopii += x[nc + ((i-1)*(nlstate+ndeath-1)+(j-2))*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
- /*        printf("Int j>i s1=%.17e, lnpijopii=%.17e %lx %lx\n",s1,lnpijopii,s1,lnpijopii); */
+                                 /*        printf("Int j>i s1=%.17e, lnpijopii=%.17e %lx %lx\n",s1,lnpijopii,s1,lnpijopii); */
-         }
+                         }
-         ps[i][j]=lnpijopii; /* In fact ln(pij/pii) */
+                         ps[i][j]=lnpijopii; /* In fact ln(pij/pii) */
-       }
+                 }
-     }
+         }
-     for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
+         for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
-       s1=0;
+                 s1=0;
-       for(j=1; j<i; j++){
+                 for(j=1; j<i; j++){
-         s1+=exp(ps[i][j]); /* In fact sums pij/pii */
+                         s1+=exp(ps[i][j]); /* In fact sums pij/pii */
-         /*printf("debug1 %d %d ps=%lf exp(ps)=%lf s1+=%lf\n",i,j,ps[i][j],exp(ps[i][j]),s1); */
+                         /*printf("debug1 %d %d ps=%lf exp(ps)=%lf s1+=%lf\n",i,j,ps[i][j],exp(ps[i][j]),s1); */
-       }
+                 }
-       for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
+                 for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
-         s1+=exp(ps[i][j]); /* In fact sums pij/pii */
+                         s1+=exp(ps[i][j]); /* In fact sums pij/pii */
-         /*printf("debug2 %d %d ps=%lf exp(ps)=%lf s1+=%lf\n",i,j,ps[i][j],exp(ps[i][j]),s1); */
+                         /*printf("debug2 %d %d ps=%lf exp(ps)=%lf s1+=%lf\n",i,j,ps[i][j],exp(ps[i][j]),s1); */
-       }
+                 }
-       /* s1= sum_{j<>i} pij/pii=(1-pii)/pii and thus pii is known from s1 */
+                 /* s1= sum_{j<>i} pij/pii=(1-pii)/pii and thus pii is known from s1 */
-       ps[i][i]=1./(s1+1.);
+                 ps[i][i]=1./(s1+1.);
-       /* Computing other pijs */
+                 /* Computing other pijs */
-       for(j=1; j<i; j++)
+                 for(j=1; j<i; j++)
-         ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
+                         ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
-       for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)
+                 for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)
-         ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
+                         ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
-       /* ps[i][nlstate+1]=1.-s1- ps[i][i];*/ /* Sum should be 1 */
+                 /* ps[i][nlstate+1]=1.-s1- ps[i][i];*/ /* Sum should be 1 */
-     } /* end i */
+         } /* end i */
-     for(ii=nlstate+1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){
+         for(ii=nlstate+1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){
-       for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
+                 for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
-         ps[ii][jj]=0;
+                         ps[ii][jj]=0;
-         ps[ii][ii]=1;
+                         ps[ii][ii]=1;
-       }
+                 }
-     }
+         }
-     /* for(ii=1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){ */
+         /* for(ii=1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){ */
-     /*   for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){ */
+         /*   for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){ */
-     /*  printf(" pmij  ps[%d][%d]=%lf ",ii,jj,ps[ii][jj]); */
+         /*      printf(" pmij  ps[%d][%d]=%lf ",ii,jj,ps[ii][jj]); */
-     /*   } */
+         /*   } */
-     /*   printf("\n "); */
+         /*   printf("\n "); */
-     /* } */
+         /* } */
-     /* printf("\n ");printf("%lf ",cov[2]);*/
+         /* printf("\n ");printf("%lf ",cov[2]);*/
-     /*
+         /*
-       for(i=1; i<= npar; i++) printf("%f ",x[i]);
+                 for(i=1; i<= npar; i++) printf("%f ",x[i]);
-       goto end;*/
+                 goto end;*/
-     return ps;
+         return ps;
+ }
+ /*************** backward transition probabilities ***************/
+  /* double **bmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate,  double ***prevacurrent, double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double ***dnewm, double **doldm, double **dsavm, int ij ) */
+ /* double **bmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate,  double ***prevacurrent, double ***dnewm, double **doldm, double **dsavm, int ij ) */
+  double **bmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate,  double ***prevacurrent, int ij )
+ {
+         /* Computes the backward probability at age agefin and covariate ij
+          * and returns in **ps as well as **bmij.
+          */
+   int i, ii, j,k;
+         double **out, **pmij();
+         double sumnew=0.;
+   double agefin;
+         double **dnewm, **dsavm, **doldm;
+         double **bbmij;
+   doldm=ddoldms; /* global pointers */
+         dnewm=ddnewms;
+         dsavm=ddsavms;
+         agefin=cov[2];
+         /* bmij *//* age is cov[2], ij is included in cov, but we need for
+                  the observed prevalence (with this covariate ij) */
+         dsavm=pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate);
+         /* We do have the matrix Px in savm  and we need pij */
+         for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+                 sumnew=0.; /* w1 p11 + w2 p21 only on live states */
+                 for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate;ii++){
+                         sumnew+=dsavm[ii][j]*prevacurrent[(int)agefin][ii][ij];
+                 } /* sumnew is (N11+N21)/N..= N.1/N.. = sum on i of w_i pij */
+                 for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++){
+                         if(sumnew >= 1.e-10){
+                                 /* if(agefin >= agemaxpar && agefin <= agemaxpar+stepm/YEARM){ */
+                                 /*      doldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1./sumnew : 0.0); */
+                                 /* }else if(agefin >= agemaxpar+stepm/YEARM){ */
+                                 /*      doldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1./sumnew : 0.0); */
+                                 /* }else */
+                                         doldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1./sumnew : 0.0);
+                         }else{
+                                 printf("ii=%d, i=%d, doldm=%lf dsavm=%lf, probs=%lf, sumnew=%lf,agefin=%d\n",ii,j,doldm[ii][j],dsavm[ii][j],prevacurrent[(int)agefin][ii][ij],sumnew, (int)agefin);
+                         }
+                 } /*End ii */
+         } /* End j, At the end doldm is diag[1/(w_1p1i+w_2 p2i)] */
+                 /* left Product of this diag matrix by dsavm=Px (newm=dsavm*doldm) */
+         bbmij=matprod2(dnewm, dsavm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, doldm); /* Bug Valgrind */
+         /* dsavm=doldm; /\* dsavm is now diag [1/(w_1p1i+w_2 p2i)] but can be overwritten*\/ */
+         /* doldm=dnewm; /\* doldm is now Px * diag [1/(w_1p1i+w_2 p2i)] *\/ */
+         /* dnewm=dsavm; /\* doldm is now Px * diag [1/(w_1p1i+w_2 p2i)] *\/ */
+         /* left Product of this matrix by diag matrix of prevalences (savm) */
+         for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+                 for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++){
+                         dsavm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? prevacurrent[(int)agefin][ii][ij] : 0.0);
+                 }
+         } /* End j, At the end oldm is diag[1/(w_1p1i+w_2 p2i)] */
+         ps=matprod2(doldm, dsavm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, dnewm); /* Bug Valgrind */
+         /* newm or out is now diag[w_i] * Px * diag [1/(w_1p1i+w_2 p2i)] */
+         /* end bmij */
+         return ps;
+ }
+ /*************** transition probabilities ***************/
+ double **bpmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate )
+ {
+   /* According to parameters values stored in x and the covariate's values stored in cov,
+      computes the probability to be observed in state j being in state i by appying the
+      model to the ncovmodel covariates (including constant and age).
+      lnpijopii=ln(pij/pii)= aij+bij*age+cij*v1+dij*v2+... = sum_nc=1^ncovmodel xij(nc)*cov[nc]
+      and, according on how parameters are entered, the position of the coefficient xij(nc) of the
+      ncth covariate in the global vector x is given by the formula:
+      j<i nc+((i-1)*(nlstate+ndeath-1)+j-1)*ncovmodel
+      j>=i nc + ((i-1)*(nlstate+ndeath-1)+(j-2))*ncovmodel
+      Computes ln(pij/pii) (lnpijopii), deduces pij/pii by exponentiation,
+      sums on j different of i to get 1-pii/pii, deduces pii, and then all pij.
+      Outputs ps[i][j] the probability to be observed in j being in j according to
+      the values of the covariates cov[nc] and corresponding parameter values x[nc+shiftij]
+   */
+   double s1, lnpijopii;
+   /*double t34;*/
+   int i,j, nc, ii, jj;
+         for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
+                 for(j=1; j<i;j++){
+                         for (nc=1, lnpijopii=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
+                                 /*lnpijopii += param[i][j][nc]*cov[nc];*/
+                                 lnpijopii += x[nc+((i-1)*(nlstate+ndeath-1)+j-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
+                                 /*       printf("Int j<i s1=%.17e, lnpijopii=%.17e\n",s1,lnpijopii); */
+                         }
+                         ps[i][j]=lnpijopii; /* In fact ln(pij/pii) */
+                         /*      printf("s1=%.17e, lnpijopii=%.17e\n",s1,lnpijopii); */
+                 }
+                 for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+                         for (nc=1, lnpijopii=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
+                                 /*lnpijopii += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-2)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];*/
+                                 lnpijopii += x[nc + ((i-1)*(nlstate+ndeath-1)+(j-2))*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
+                                 /*        printf("Int j>i s1=%.17e, lnpijopii=%.17e %lx %lx\n",s1,lnpijopii,s1,lnpijopii); */
+                         }
+                         ps[i][j]=lnpijopii; /* In fact ln(pij/pii) */
+                 }
+         }
+         for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
+                 s1=0;
+                 for(j=1; j<i; j++){
+                         s1+=exp(ps[i][j]); /* In fact sums pij/pii */
+                         /*printf("debug1 %d %d ps=%lf exp(ps)=%lf s1+=%lf\n",i,j,ps[i][j],exp(ps[i][j]),s1); */
+                 }
+                 for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
+                         s1+=exp(ps[i][j]); /* In fact sums pij/pii */
+                         /*printf("debug2 %d %d ps=%lf exp(ps)=%lf s1+=%lf\n",i,j,ps[i][j],exp(ps[i][j]),s1); */
+                 }
+                 /* s1= sum_{j<>i} pij/pii=(1-pii)/pii and thus pii is known from s1 */
+                 ps[i][i]=1./(s1+1.);
+                 /* Computing other pijs */
+                 for(j=1; j<i; j++)
+                         ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
+                 for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)
+                         ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
+                 /* ps[i][nlstate+1]=1.-s1- ps[i][i];*/ /* Sum should be 1 */
+         } /* end i */
+         for(ii=nlstate+1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){
+                 for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
+                         ps[ii][jj]=0;
+                         ps[ii][ii]=1;
+                 }
+         }
+         /* Added for backcast */ /* Transposed matrix too */
+         for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
+                 s1=0.;
+                 for(ii=1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){
+                         s1+=ps[ii][jj];
+                 }
+                 for(ii=1; ii<= nlstate; ii++){
+                         ps[ii][jj]=ps[ii][jj]/s1;
+                 }
+         }
+         /* Transposition */
+         for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
+                 for(ii=jj; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){
+                         s1=ps[ii][jj];
+                         ps[ii][jj]=ps[jj][ii];
+                         ps[jj][ii]=s1;
+                 }
+         }
+         /* for(ii=1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){ */
+         /*   for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){ */
+         /*      printf(" pmij  ps[%d][%d]=%lf ",ii,jj,ps[ii][jj]); */
+         /*   } */
+         /*   printf("\n "); */
+         /* } */
+         /* printf("\n ");printf("%lf ",cov[2]);*/
+         /*
+                 for(i=1; i<= npar; i++) printf("%f ",x[i]);
+                 goto end;*/
+         return ps;
  }
  /**************** Product of 2 matrices ******************/
  double **matprod2(double **out, double **in,int nrl, int nrh, int ncl, int nch, int ncolol, int ncoloh, double **b)
- Line 2070  double **matprod2(double **out, double *
+ Line 2570  double **matprod2(double **out, double *
  double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstepm, double age, int hstepm, double *x, int nlstate, int stepm, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij )
  {
-   /* Computes the transition matrix starting at age 'age' over
+   /* Computes the transition matrix starting at age 'age' and combination of covariate values corresponding to ij over
       'nhstepm*hstepm*stepm' months (i.e. until
       age (in years)  age+nhstepm*hstepm*stepm/12) by multiplying
       nhstepm*hstepm matrices.
- Line 2086  double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstep
+ Line 2586  double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstep
    double **out, cov[NCOVMAX+1];
    double **newm;
    double agexact;
+   double agebegin, ageend;
    /* Hstepm could be zero and should return the unit matrix */
    for (i=1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)
- Line 2099  double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstep
+ Line 2600  double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstep
        newm=savm;
        /* Covariates have to be included here again */
        cov[1]=1.;
-       agexact=age+((h-1)*hstepm + (d-1))*stepm/YEARM;
+       agexact=age+((h-1)*hstepm + (d-1))*stepm/YEARM; /* age just before transition */
        cov[2]=agexact;
        if(nagesqr==1)
-         cov[3]= agexact*agexact;
+                                 cov[3]= agexact*agexact;
        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++)
-         cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,k)];
+                                 cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,k)];
-         /* cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[k])]; */
+                         /* cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[k])]; */
        for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) /* Should start at cptcovn+1 */
-         /* cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2]; */
+                                 /* cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2]; */
-         cov[2+nagesqr+Tage[k]]=nbcode[Tvar[Tage[k]]][codtabm(ij,k)]*cov[2];
+                                 cov[2+nagesqr+Tage[k]]=nbcode[Tvar[Tage[k]]][codtabm(ij,k)]*cov[2];
-         /* cov[2+nagesqr+Tage[k]]=nbcode[Tvar[Tage[k]]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[Tage[k]])]*cov[2]; */
+                         /* cov[2+nagesqr+Tage[k]]=nbcode[Tvar[Tage[k]]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[Tage[k]])]*cov[2]; */
        for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++) /* Useless because included in cptcovn */
-         cov[2+nagesqr+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtabm(ij,k)]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtabm(ij,k)];
+                                 cov[2+nagesqr+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtabm(ij,k)]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtabm(ij,k)];
-         /* cov[2+nagesqr+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtabm(ij,Tvard[k][1])]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtabm(ij,Tvard[k][2])]; */
+                         /* cov[2+nagesqr+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtabm(ij,Tvard[k][1])]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtabm(ij,Tvard[k][2])]; */
        /*printf("hxi cptcov=%d cptcode=%d\n",cptcov,cptcode);*/
        /*printf("h=%d d=%d age=%f cov=%f\n",h,d,age,cov[2]);*/
+                         /* right multiplication of oldm by the current matrix */
        out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
                     pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
+       /* if((int)age == 70){ */
+       /*        printf(" Forward hpxij age=%d agexact=%f d=%d nhstepm=%d hstepm=%d\n", (int) age, agexact, d, nhstepm, hstepm); */
+       /*        for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++) { */
+       /*          printf("%d pmmij ",i); */
+       /*          for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) { */
+       /*            printf("%f ",pmmij[i][j]); */
+       /*          } */
+       /*          printf(" oldm "); */
+       /*          for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) { */
+       /*            printf("%f ",oldm[i][j]); */
+       /*          } */
+       /*          printf("\n"); */
+       /*        } */
+       /* } */
+       savm=oldm;
+       oldm=newm;
+     }
+     for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)
+       for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
+                                 po[i][j][h]=newm[i][j];
+                                 /*if(h==nhstepm) printf("po[%d][%d][%d]=%f ",i,j,h,po[i][j][h]);*/
+       }
+     /*printf("h=%d ",h);*/
+   } /* end h */
+         /*     printf("\n H=%d \n",h); */
+   return po;
+ }
+ /************* Higher Back Matrix Product ***************/
+ /* double ***hbxij(double ***po, int nhstepm, double age, int hstepm, double *x, double ***prevacurrent, int nlstate, int stepm, double **oldm, double **savm, double **dnewm, double **doldm, double **dsavm, int ij ) */
+  double ***hbxij(double ***po, int nhstepm, double age, int hstepm, double *x, double ***prevacurrent, int nlstate, int stepm, int ij )
+ {
+   /* Computes the transition matrix starting at age 'age' over
+      'nhstepm*hstepm*stepm' months (i.e. until
+      age (in years)  age+nhstepm*hstepm*stepm/12) by multiplying
+      nhstepm*hstepm matrices.
+      Output is stored in matrix po[i][j][h] for h every 'hstepm' step
+      (typically every 2 years instead of every month which is too big
+      for the memory).
+      Model is determined by parameters x and covariates have to be
+      included manually here.
+      */
+   int i, j, d, h, k;
+   double **out, cov[NCOVMAX+1];
+   double **newm;
+   double agexact;
+   double agebegin, ageend;
+         double **oldm, **savm;
+         oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
+   /* Hstepm could be zero and should return the unit matrix */
+   for (i=1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)
+     for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+       oldm[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
+       po[i][j][0]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
+     }
+   /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */
+   for(h=1; h <=nhstepm; h++){
+     for(d=1; d <=hstepm; d++){
+       newm=savm;
+       /* Covariates have to be included here again */
+       cov[1]=1.;
+       agexact=age-((h-1)*hstepm + (d-1))*stepm/YEARM; /* age just before transition */
+       /* agexact=age+((h-1)*hstepm + (d-1))*stepm/YEARM; /\* age just before transition *\/ */
+       cov[2]=agexact;
+       if(nagesqr==1)
+                                 cov[3]= agexact*agexact;
+       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++)
+                                 cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,k)];
+                         /* cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[k])]; */
+       for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) /* Should start at cptcovn+1 */
+                                 /* cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2]; */
+                                 cov[2+nagesqr+Tage[k]]=nbcode[Tvar[Tage[k]]][codtabm(ij,k)]*cov[2];
+                         /* cov[2+nagesqr+Tage[k]]=nbcode[Tvar[Tage[k]]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[Tage[k]])]*cov[2]; */
+       for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++) /* Useless because included in cptcovn */
+                                 cov[2+nagesqr+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtabm(ij,k)]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtabm(ij,k)];
+                         /* cov[2+nagesqr+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtabm(ij,Tvard[k][1])]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtabm(ij,Tvard[k][2])]; */
+       /*printf("hxi cptcov=%d cptcode=%d\n",cptcov,cptcode);*/
+       /*printf("h=%d d=%d age=%f cov=%f\n",h,d,age,cov[2]);*/
+       /* Careful transposed matrix */
+                         /* age is in cov[2] */
+       /* out=matprod2(newm, bmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate,prevacurrent, dnewm, doldm, dsavm,ij),\ */
+                         /*                                               1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm); */
+       out=matprod2(newm, bmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate,prevacurrent,ij),\
+,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm);
+       /* if((int)age == 70){ */
+       /*        printf(" Backward hbxij age=%d agexact=%f d=%d nhstepm=%d hstepm=%d\n", (int) age, agexact, d, nhstepm, hstepm); */
+       /*        for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++) { */
+       /*          printf("%d pmmij ",i); */
+       /*          for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) { */
+       /*            printf("%f ",pmmij[i][j]); */
+       /*          } */
+       /*          printf(" oldm "); */
+       /*          for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) { */
+       /*            printf("%f ",oldm[i][j]); */
+       /*          } */
+       /*          printf("\n"); */
+       /*        } */
+       /* } */
        savm=oldm;
        oldm=newm;
      }
      for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)
        for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
-         po[i][j][h]=newm[i][j];
+                                 po[i][j][h]=newm[i][j];
-         /*if(h==nhstepm) printf("po[%d][%d][%d]=%f ",i,j,h,po[i][j][h]);*/
+                                 /*if(h==nhstepm) printf("po[%d][%d][%d]=%f ",i,j,h,po[i][j][h]);*/
        }
      /*printf("h=%d ",h);*/
    } /* end h */
- /*     printf("\n H=%d \n",h); */
+         /*     printf("\n H=%d \n",h); */
    return po;
  }
  #ifdef NLOPT
    double  myfunc(unsigned n, const double *p1, double *grad, void *pd){
    double fret;
- Line 2276  double func( double *x)
+ Line 2882  double func( double *x)
  /*        else */
  /*          lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]); */
  /* #endif */
-             lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
+           lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
-         } else if  (s2==-2) {
+         } else if  ( s2==-1 ) { /* alive */
            for (j=1,survp=0. ; j<=nlstate; j++)
              survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
            /*survp += out[s1][j]; */
            lli= log(survp);
          }
          else if  (s2==-4) {
            for (j=3,survp=0. ; j<=nlstate; j++)
              survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
            lli= log(survp);
          }
          else if  (s2==-5) {
            for (j=1,survp=0. ; j<=2; j++)
              survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
            lli= log(survp);
          }
          else{
            lli= log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]); /* linear interpolation */
            /*  lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*(savm[s1][s2])):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]));*/ /* linear interpolation */
- Line 2408  double func( double *x)
+ Line 3011  double func( double *x)
          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
          if( s2 > nlstate){
            lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
+         } else if  ( s2==-1 ) { /* alive */
+           for (j=1,survp=0. ; j<=nlstate; j++)
+             survp += out[s1][j];
+           lli= log(survp);
          }else{
            lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]); /* Original formula */
          }
- Line 2470  double funcone( double *x)
+ Line 3077  double funcone( double *x)
    int s1, s2;
    double bbh, survp;
    double agexact;
+   double agebegin, ageend;
    /*extern weight */
    /* We are differentiating ll according to initial status */
    /*  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) printf("%f ", x[i]);*/
- Line 2488  double funcone( double *x)
+ Line 3096  double funcone( double *x)
            oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
            savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
          }
-       for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
+       agebegin=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]; /* Age at beginning of effective wave */
+       ageend=agev[mw[mi][i]][i] + (dh[mi][i])*stepm/YEARM; /* Age at end of effective wave and at the end of transition */
+       for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){  /* Delay between two effective waves */
+         /*dh[m][i] or dh[mw[mi][i]][i] is the delay between two effective waves m=mw[mi][i]
+           and mw[mi+1][i]. dh depends on stepm.*/
          newm=savm;
          agexact=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
          cov[2]=agexact;
- Line 2509  double funcone( double *x)
+ Line 3122  double funcone( double *x)
        s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
        s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
+       /* if(s2==-1){ */
+       /*        printf(" s1=%d, s2=%d i=%d \n", s1, s2, i); */
+       /*        /\* exit(1); *\/ */
+       /* } */
        bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm;
        /* bias is positive if real duration
         * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
         */
        if( s2 > nlstate && (mle <5) ){  /* Jackson */
          lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
-       } else if  (s2==-2) {
+       } else if  ( s2==-1 ) { /* alive */
          for (j=1,survp=0. ; j<=nlstate; j++)
            survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
          lli= log(survp);
- Line 2536  double funcone( double *x)
+ Line 3153  double funcone( double *x)
        ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
        /*printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
        if(globpr){
-         fprintf(ficresilk,"%9ld %6d %2d %2d %1d %1d %3d %11.6f %8.4f\
+         fprintf(ficresilk,"%9ld %6.1f %6.1f %6d %2d %2d %2d %2d %3d %11.6f %8.4f %8.3f\
   %11.6f %11.6f %11.6f ", \
-                 num[i],i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],
+                 num[i], agebegin, ageend, i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],weight[i]*gipmx/gsw,
 *weight[i]*lli,out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]);
          for(k=1,llt=0.,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++){
            llt +=ll[k]*gipmx/gsw;
- Line 2570  void likelione(FILE *ficres,double p[],
+ Line 3187  void likelione(FILE *ficres,double p[],
    int k;
    if(*globpri !=0){ /* Just counts and sums, no printings */
-     strcpy(fileresilk,"ilk");
+     strcpy(fileresilk,"ILK_");
-     strcat(fileresilk,fileres);
+     strcat(fileresilk,fileresu);
      if((ficresilk=fopen(fileresilk,"w"))==NULL) {
        printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresilk);
        fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresilk);
      }
-     fprintf(ficresilk, "#individual(line's_record) s1 s2 wave# effective_wave# number_of_matrices_product pij weight -2ln(pij)*weight 0pij_x 0pij_(x-stepm) cumulating_loglikeli_by_health_state(reweighted=-2ll*weightXnumber_of_contribs/sum_of_weights) and_total\n");
+     fprintf(ficresilk, "#individual(line's_record) count ageb ageend s1 s2 wave# effective_wave# number_of_matrices_product pij weight weight/gpw -2ln(pij)*weight 0pij_x 0pij_(x-stepm) cumulating_loglikeli_by_health_state(reweighted=-2ll*weightXnumber_of_contribs/sum_of_weights) and_total\n");
-     fprintf(ficresilk, "#num_i i s1 s2 mi mw dh likeli weight 2wlli out sav ");
+     fprintf(ficresilk, "#num_i ageb agend i s1 s2 mi mw dh likeli weight %%weight 2wlli out sav ");
      /*  i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],2*weight[i]*lli,out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
      for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++)
        fprintf(ficresilk," -2*gipw/gsw*weight*ll[%d]++",k);
- Line 2587  void likelione(FILE *ficres,double p[],
+ Line 3204  void likelione(FILE *ficres,double p[],
    *fretone=(*funcone)(p);
    if(*globpri !=0){
      fclose(ficresilk);
-     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>File of contributions to the likelihood: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n",subdirf(fileresilk),subdirf(fileresilk));
+     if (mle ==0)
-     fflush(fichtm);
+       fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>File of contributions to the likelihood computed with initial parameters and mle = %d.",mle);
-   }
+     else if(mle >=1)
+       fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>File of contributions to the likelihood computed with optimized parameters mle = %d.",mle);
+     fprintf(fichtm," You should at least run with mle >= 1 to get starting values corresponding to the optimized parameters in order to visualize the real contribution of each individual/wave: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n",subdirf(fileresilk),subdirf(fileresilk));
+     for (k=1; k<= nlstate ; k++) {
+       fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Probability p<sub>%dj</sub> by origin %d and destination j. Dot's sizes are related to corresponding weight: <a href=\"%s-p%dj.png\">%s-p%dj.png</a><br> \
+ <img src=\"%s-p%dj.png\">",k,k,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"),k,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"),k,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"),k);
+     }
+     fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- The function drawn is -2Log(L) in Log scale: by state of origin <a href=\"%s-ori.png\">%s-ori.png</a><br> \
+ <img src=\"%s-ori.png\">",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"),subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"),subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"));
+     fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- and by state of destination <a href=\"%s-dest.png\">%s-dest.png</a><br> \
+ <img src=\"%s-dest.png\">",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"),subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"),subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"));
+     fflush(fichtm);
+   }
    return;
  }
- Line 2620  void mlikeli(FILE *ficres,double p[], in
+ Line 3251  void mlikeli(FILE *ficres,double p[], in
      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)
        xi[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
    printf("Powell\n");  fprintf(ficlog,"Powell\n");
-   strcpy(filerespow,"pow");
+   strcpy(filerespow,"POW_");
    strcat(filerespow,fileres);
    if((ficrespow=fopen(filerespow,"w"))==NULL) {
      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
- Line 2663  void mlikeli(FILE *ficres,double p[], in
+ Line 3294  void mlikeli(FILE *ficres,double p[], in
  #endif
    free_matrix(xi,1,npar,1,npar);
    fclose(ficrespow);
-   printf("#Number of iterations & function calls = %d & %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter, countcallfunc,func(p));
+   printf("\n#Number of iterations & function calls = %d & %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter, countcallfunc,func(p));
-   fprintf(ficlog,"#Number of iterations & function calls = %d & %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter, countcallfunc,func(p));
+   fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Number of iterations & function calls = %d & %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter, countcallfunc,func(p));
    fprintf(ficres,"#Number of iterations & function calls = %d & %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter, countcallfunc,func(p));
  }
  /**** Computes Hessian and covariance matrix ***/
- void hesscov(double **matcov, double p[], int npar, double delti[], double ftolhess, double (*func)(double []))
+ void hesscov(double **matcov, double **hess, double p[], int npar, double delti[], double ftolhess, double (*func)(double []))
  {
    double  **a,**y,*x,pd;
-   double **hess;
+   /* double **hess; */
    int i, j;
    int *indx;
    double hessii(double p[], double delta, int theta, double delti[],double (*func)(double []),int npar);
-   double hessij(double p[], double delti[], int i, int j,double (*func)(double []),int npar);
+   double hessij(double p[], double **hess, double delti[], int i, int j,double (*func)(double []),int npar);
    void lubksb(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double b[]) ;
    void ludcmp(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double *d) ;
    double gompertz(double p[]);
-   hess=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
+   /* hess=matrix(1,npar,1,npar); */
    printf("\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");
    fprintf(ficlog,"\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");
    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){
-     printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);
+     printf("%d-",i);fflush(stdout);
-     fprintf(ficlog,"%d",i);fflush(ficlog);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"%d-",i);fflush(ficlog);
       hess[i][i]=hessii(p,ftolhess,i,delti,func,npar);
- Line 2699  void hesscov(double **matcov, double p[]
+ Line 3330  void hesscov(double **matcov, double p[]
    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {
      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)  {
        if (j>i) {
-         printf(".%d%d",i,j);fflush(stdout);
+         printf(".%d-%d",i,j);fflush(stdout);
-         fprintf(ficlog,".%d%d",i,j);fflush(ficlog);
+         fprintf(ficlog,".%d-%d",i,j);fflush(ficlog);
-         hess[i][j]=hessij(p,delti,i,j,func,npar);
+         hess[i][j]=hessij(p,hess, delti,i,j,func,npar);
          hess[j][i]=hess[i][j];
          /*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][j]);*/
- Line 2735  void hesscov(double **matcov, double p[]
+ Line 3366  void hesscov(double **matcov, double p[]
    fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Hessian matrix#\n");
    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {
      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
-       printf("%.3e ",hess[i][j]);
+       printf("%.6e ",hess[i][j]);
-       fprintf(ficlog,"%.3e ",hess[i][j]);
+       fprintf(ficlog,"%.6e ",hess[i][j]);
      }
      printf("\n");
      fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
    }
+   /* printf("\n#Covariance matrix#\n"); */
+   /* fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Covariance matrix#\n"); */
+   /* for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {  */
+   /*   for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {  */
+   /*     printf("%.6e ",matcov[i][j]); */
+   /*     fprintf(ficlog,"%.6e ",matcov[i][j]); */
+   /*   } */
+   /*   printf("\n"); */
+   /*   fprintf(ficlog,"\n"); */
+   /* } */
    /* Recompute Inverse */
-   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
+   /* for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) */
-     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=matcov[i][j];
+   /*   for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=matcov[i][j]; */
-   ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);
+   /* ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd); */
+   /*  printf("\n#Hessian matrix recomputed#\n"); */
+   /* for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) { */
+   /*   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0; */
+   /*   x[j]=1; */
+   /*   lubksb(a,npar,indx,x); */
+   /*   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){  */
+   /*     y[i][j]=x[i]; */
+   /*     printf("%.3e ",y[i][j]); */
+   /*     fprintf(ficlog,"%.3e ",y[i][j]); */
+   /*   } */
+   /*   printf("\n"); */
+   /*   fprintf(ficlog,"\n"); */
+   /* } */
+   /* Verifying the inverse matrix */
+ #ifdef DEBUGHESS
+   y=matprod2(y,hess,1,npar,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
-   /*  printf("\n#Hessian matrix recomputed#\n");
+    printf("\n#Verification: multiplying the matrix of covariance by the Hessian matrix, should be unity:#\n");
+    fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Verification: multiplying the matrix of covariance by the Hessian matrix. Should be unity:#\n");
    for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
-     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;
-     x[j]=1;
-     lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);
      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){
-       y[i][j]=x[i];
+       printf("%.2f ",y[i][j]);
-       printf("%.3e ",y[i][j]);
+       fprintf(ficlog,"%.2f ",y[i][j]);
-       fprintf(ficlog,"%.3e ",y[i][j]);
      }
      printf("\n");
      fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
    }
-   */
+ #endif
    free_matrix(a,1,npar,1,npar);
    free_matrix(y,1,npar,1,npar);
    free_vector(x,1,npar);
    free_ivector(indx,1,npar);
-   free_matrix(hess,1,npar,1,npar);
+   /* free_matrix(hess,1,npar,1,npar); */
  }
  /*************** hessian matrix ****************/
  double hessii(double x[], double delta, int theta, double delti[], double (*func)(double []), int npar)
- {
+ { /* Around values of x, computes the function func and returns the scales delti and hessian */
    int i;
    int l=1, lmax=20;
-   double k1,k2;
+   double k1,k2, res, fx;
    double p2[MAXPARM+1]; /* identical to x */
-   double res;
    double delt=0.0001, delts, nkhi=10.,nkhif=1., khi=1.e-4;
-   double fx;
    int k=0,kmax=10;
    double l1;
- Line 2797  double hessii(double x[], double delta,
+ Line 3453  double hessii(double x[], double delta,
        p2[theta]=x[theta]-delt;
        k2=func(p2)-fx;
        /*res= (k1-2.0*fx+k2)/delt/delt; */
-       res= (k1+k2)/delt/delt/2.; /* Divided by because L and not 2*L */
+       res= (k1+k2)/delt/delt/2.; /* Divided by 2 because L and not 2*L */
- #ifdef DEBUGHESS
+ #ifdef DEBUGHESSII
        printf("%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);
        fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);
  #endif
- Line 2813  double hessii(double x[], double delta,
+ Line 3469  double hessii(double x[], double delta,
        else if((k1 >khi/nkhi) || (k2 >khi/nkhi)){
          delts=delt;
        }
-     }
+     } /* End loop k */
    }
    delti[theta]=delts;
    return res;
  }
- double hessij( double x[], double delti[], int thetai,int thetaj,double (*func)(double []),int npar)
+ double hessij( double x[], double **hess, double delti[], int thetai,int thetaj,double (*func)(double []),int npar)
  {
    int i;
    int l=1, lmax=20;
    double k1,k2,k3,k4,res,fx;
    double p2[MAXPARM+1];
-   int k;
+   int k, kmax=1;
+   double v1, v2, cv12, lc1, lc2;
+   int firstime=0;
    fx=func(x);
-   for (k=1; k<=2; k++) {
+   for (k=1; k<=kmax; k=k+10) {
      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];
-     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;
+     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]*k;
-     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;
+     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]*k;
      k1=func(p2)-fx;
-     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;
+     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]*k;
-     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;
+     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]*k;
      k2=func(p2)-fx;
-     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;
+     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]*k;
-     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;
+     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]*k;
      k3=func(p2)-fx;
-     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;
+     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]*k;
-     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;
+     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]*k;
      k4=func(p2)-fx;
-     res=(k1-k2-k3+k4)/4.0/delti[thetai]*k/delti[thetaj]*k/2.; /* Because of L not 2*L */
+     res=(k1-k2-k3+k4)/4.0/delti[thetai]/k/delti[thetaj]/k/2.; /* Because of L not 2*L */
- #ifdef DEBUG
+     if(k1*k2*k3*k4 <0.){
-     printf("%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
+       firstime=1;
-     fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
+       kmax=kmax+10;
+     }
+     if(kmax >=10 || firstime ==1){
+       printf("Warning: directions %d-%d, you are not estimating the Hessian at the exact maximum likelihood; you may increase ftol=%.2e\n",thetai,thetaj, ftol);
+       fprintf(ficlog,"Warning: directions %d-%d, you are not estimating the Hessian at the exact maximum likelihood; you may increase ftol=%.2e\n",thetai,thetaj, ftol);
+       printf("%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti*k=%.12e deltj*k=%.12e, xi-de*k=%.12e xj-de*k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
+       fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti*k=%.12e deltj*k=%.12e, xi-de*k=%.12e xj-de*k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
+     }
+ #ifdef DEBUGHESSIJ
+     v1=hess[thetai][thetai];
+     v2=hess[thetaj][thetaj];
+     cv12=res;
+     /* Computing eigen value of Hessian matrix */
+     lc1=((v1+v2)+sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;
+     lc2=((v1+v2)-sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;
+     if ((lc2 <0) || (lc1 <0) ){
+       printf("Warning: sub Hessian matrix '%d%d' does not have positive eigen values \n",thetai,thetaj);
+       fprintf(ficlog, "Warning: sub Hessian matrix '%d%d' does not have positive eigen values \n",thetai,thetaj);
+       printf("%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
+       fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
+     }
  #endif
    }
    return res;
  }
+     /* Not done yet: Was supposed to fix if not exactly at the maximum */
+ /* double hessij( double x[], double delti[], int thetai,int thetaj,double (*func)(double []),int npar) */
+ /* { */
+ /*   int i; */
+ /*   int l=1, lmax=20; */
+ /*   double k1,k2,k3,k4,res,fx; */
+ /*   double p2[MAXPARM+1]; */
+ /*   double delt=0.0001, delts, nkhi=10.,nkhif=1., khi=1.e-4; */
+ /*   int k=0,kmax=10; */
+ /*   double l1; */
+ /*   fx=func(x); */
+ /*   for(l=0 ; l <=lmax; l++){  /\* Enlarging the zone around the Maximum *\/ */
+ /*     l1=pow(10,l); */
+ /*     delts=delt; */
+ /*     for(k=1 ; k <kmax; k=k+1){ */
+ /*       delt = delti*(l1*k); */
+ /*       for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i]; */
+ /*       p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k; */
+ /*       p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k; */
+ /*       k1=func(p2)-fx; */
+ /*       p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k; */
+ /*       p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k; */
+ /*       k2=func(p2)-fx; */
+ /*       p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k; */
+ /*       p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k; */
+ /*       k3=func(p2)-fx; */
+ /*       p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k; */
+ /*       p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k; */
+ /*       k4=func(p2)-fx; */
+ /*       res=(k1-k2-k3+k4)/4.0/delti[thetai]*k/delti[thetaj]*k/2.; /\* Because of L not 2*L *\/ */
+ /* #ifdef DEBUGHESSIJ */
+ /*       printf("%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4); */
+ /*       fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4); */
+ /* #endif */
+ /*       if((k1 <khi/nkhi/2.) || (k2 <khi/nkhi/2.)|| (k4 <khi/nkhi/2.)|| (k4 <khi/nkhi/2.)){ */
+ /*      k=kmax; */
+ /*       } */
+ /*       else if((k1 >khi/nkhif) || (k2 >khi/nkhif) || (k4 >khi/nkhif) || (k4 >khi/nkhif)){ /\* Keeps lastvalue before 3.84/2 KHI2 5% 1d.f. *\/ */
+ /*      k=kmax; l=lmax*10; */
+ /*       } */
+ /*       else if((k1 >khi/nkhi) || (k2 >khi/nkhi)){  */
+ /*      delts=delt; */
+ /*       } */
+ /*     } /\* End loop k *\/ */
+ /*   } */
+ /*   delti[theta]=delts; */
+ /*   return res;  */
+ /* } */
  /************** Inverse of matrix **************/
  void ludcmp(double **a, int n, int *indx, double *d)
  {
- Line 2935  void pstamp(FILE *fichier)
+ Line 3668  void pstamp(FILE *fichier)
  }
  /************ Frequencies ********************/
- void  freqsummary(char fileres[], int iagemin, int iagemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvaraff, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, char strstart[])
+ void  freqsummary(char fileres[], int iagemin, int iagemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, \
+                   int *Tvaraff, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, char strstart[],\
+                   int firstpass,  int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[])
  {  /* Some frequencies */
    int i, m, jk, j1, bool, z1,j;
+   int mi; /* Effective wave */
    int first;
    double ***freq; /* Frequencies */
    double *pp, **prop;
    double pos,posprop, k2, dateintsum=0,k2cpt=0;
-   char fileresp[FILENAMELENGTH];
+   char fileresp[FILENAMELENGTH], fileresphtm[FILENAMELENGTH], fileresphtmfr[FILENAMELENGTH];
+   double agebegin, ageend;
    pp=vector(1,nlstate);
-   prop=matrix(1,nlstate,iagemin,iagemax+3);
+   prop=matrix(1,nlstate,iagemin-AGEMARGE,iagemax+3+AGEMARGE);
-   strcpy(fileresp,"p");
+   /* prop=matrix(1,nlstate,iagemin,iagemax+3); */
-   strcat(fileresp,fileres);
+   strcpy(fileresp,"P_");
+   strcat(fileresp,fileresu);
+   /*strcat(fileresphtm,fileresu);*/
    if((ficresp=fopen(fileresp,"w"))==NULL) {
      printf("Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);
      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);
      exit(0);
    }
-   freq= ma3x(-5,nlstate+ndeath,-5,nlstate+ndeath,iagemin,iagemax+3);
+   strcpy(fileresphtm,subdirfext(optionfilefiname,"PHTM_",".htm"));
+   if((ficresphtm=fopen(fileresphtm,"w"))==NULL) {
+     printf("Problem with prevalence HTM resultfile '%s' with errno='%s'\n",fileresphtm,strerror(errno));
+     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with prevalence HTM resultfile '%s' with errno='%s'\n",fileresphtm,strerror(errno));
+     fflush(ficlog);
+     exit(70);
+   }
+   else{
+     fprintf(ficresphtm,"<html><head>\n<title>IMaCh PHTM_ %s</title></head>\n <body><font size=\"2\">%s <br> %s</font> \
+ <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n\
+ Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=1+age+%s<br>\n",\
+           fileresphtm,version,fullversion,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt, model);
+   }
+     fprintf(ficresphtm,"Current page is file <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n\n<h4>Frequencies and prevalence by age at begin of transition</h4>\n",fileresphtm, fileresphtm);
+   strcpy(fileresphtmfr,subdirfext(optionfilefiname,"PHTMFR_",".htm"));
+   if((ficresphtmfr=fopen(fileresphtmfr,"w"))==NULL) {
+     printf("Problem with frequency table HTM resultfile '%s' with errno='%s'\n",fileresphtmfr,strerror(errno));
+     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with frequency table HTM resultfile '%s' with errno='%s'\n",fileresphtmfr,strerror(errno));
+     fflush(ficlog);
+     exit(70);
+   }
+   else{
+     fprintf(ficresphtmfr,"<html><head>\n<title>IMaCh PHTM_Frequency table %s</title></head>\n <body><font size=\"2\">%s <br> %s</font> \
+ <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n\
+ Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=1+age+%s<br>\n",\
+           fileresphtmfr,version,fullversion,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt, model);
+   }
+   fprintf(ficresphtmfr,"Current page is file <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n\n<h4>Frequencies of all effective transitions by age at begin of transition </h4>Unknown status is -1<br/>\n",fileresphtmfr, fileresphtmfr);
+   freq= ma3x(-5,nlstate+ndeath,-5,nlstate+ndeath,iagemin-AGEMARGE,iagemax+3+AGEMARGE);
    j1=0;
    j=cptcoveff;
- Line 2962  void  freqsummary(char fileres[], int ia
+ Line 3732  void  freqsummary(char fileres[], int ia
    first=1;
-   /* for(k1=1; k1<=j ; k1++){ */  /* Loop on covariates */
+   for (j1 = 1; j1 <= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff); j1++){ /* Loop on covariates combination */
-   /*  for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){ */ /* Now it is 2 */
-   /*    j1++; */
-   for (j1 = 1; j1 <= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff); j1++){
        /*printf("cptcoveff=%d Tvaraff=%d", cptcoveff,Tvaraff[1]);
          scanf("%d", i);*/
        for (i=-5; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)
- Line 2979  void  freqsummary(char fileres[], int ia
+ Line 3746  void  freqsummary(char fileres[], int ia
        dateintsum=0;
        k2cpt=0;
-       for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
+       for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) { /* For each individual i */
          bool=1;
-         if  (cptcovn>0) { /* Filter is here: Must be looked at for model=V1+V2+V3+V4 */
+         if (cptcovn>0) { /* Filter is here: Must be looked at for model=V1+V2+V3+V4 */
            for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++)
              if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]){
                  /* Tests if the value of each of the covariates of i is equal to filter j1 */
- Line 2991  void  freqsummary(char fileres[], int ia
+ Line 3758  void  freqsummary(char fileres[], int ia
                  j1,z1,nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)],j1);*/
                /* For j1=7 in V1+V2+V3+V4 = 0 1 1 0 and codtabm(7,3)=1 and nbcde[3][?]=1*/
              }
-         }
+         } /* cptcovn > 0 */
          if (bool==1){
-           for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){
+           /* for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){ */
-             k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);
+           for(mi=1; mi<wav[i];mi++){
-             /*if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {*/
+             m=mw[mi][i];
-               if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=iagemax+1;
+             /* dh[m][i] or dh[mw[mi][i]][i] is the delay between two effective (mi) waves m=mw[mi][i]
-               if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=iagemax+2;
+                and mw[mi+1][i]. dh depends on stepm. */
-               if (s[m][i]>0 && s[m][i]<=nlstate) prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
+             agebegin=agev[m][i]; /* Age at beginning of wave before transition*/
+             ageend=agev[m][i]+(dh[m][i])*stepm/YEARM; /* Age at end of wave and transition */
+             if(m >=firstpass && m <=lastpass){
+               k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);
+               /*if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {*/
+               if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=iagemax+1;  /* All ages equal to 0 are in iagemax+1 */
+               if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=iagemax+2;  /* All ages equal to 1 are in iagemax+2 */
+               if (s[m][i]>0 && s[m][i]<=nlstate)  /* If status at wave m is known and a live state */
+                 prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];  /* At age of beginning of transition, where status is known */
                if (m<lastpass) {
-                 freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
+                 /* if(s[m][i]==4 && s[m+1][i]==4) */
-                 freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][iagemax+3] += weight[i];
+                 /*   printf(" num=%ld m=%d, i=%d s1=%d s2=%d agev at m=%d\n", num[i], m, i,s[m][i],s[m+1][i], (int)agev[m][i]); */
-               }
+                 if(s[m][i]==-1)
+                   printf(" num=%ld m=%d, i=%d s1=%d s2=%d agev at m=%d agebegin=%.2f ageend=%.2f, agemed=%d\n", num[i], m, i,s[m][i],s[m+1][i], (int)agev[m][i],agebegin, ageend, (int)((agebegin+ageend)/2.));
-               if ((agev[m][i]>1) && (agev[m][i]< (iagemax+3))) {
+                 freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i]; /* At age of beginning of transition, where status is known */
-                 dateintsum=dateintsum+k2;
+                 /* freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)((agebegin+ageend)/2.)] += weight[i]; */
-                 k2cpt++;
+                 freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][iagemax+3] += weight[i]; /* Total is in iagemax+3 *//* At age of beginning of transition, where status is known */
                }
-               /*}*/
+             }
-           }
+             if ((agev[m][i]>1) && (agev[m][i]< (iagemax+3)) && (anint[m][i]!=9999) && (mint[m][i]!=99)) {
-         }
+               dateintsum=dateintsum+k2;
-       } /* end i */
+               k2cpt++;
+               /* printf("i=%ld dateintmean = %lf dateintsum=%lf k2cpt=%lf k2=%lf\n",i, dateintsum/k2cpt, dateintsum,k2cpt, k2); */
+             }
+             /*}*/
+           } /* end m */
+         } /* end bool */
+       } /* end i = 1 to imx */
        /*      fprintf(ficresp, "#Count between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);*/
        pstamp(ficresp);
        if  (cptcovn>0) {
          fprintf(ficresp, "\n#********** Variable ");
-         for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresp, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]);
+         fprintf(ficresphtm, "\n<br/><br/><h3>********** Variable ");
-         fprintf(ficresp, "**********\n#");
+         fprintf(ficresphtmfr, "\n<br/><br/><h3>********** Variable ");
+         for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++){
+           fprintf(ficresp, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]);
+           fprintf(ficresphtm, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]);
+           fprintf(ficresphtmfr, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]);
+         }
+           fprintf(ficresp, "**********\n#");
+         fprintf(ficresphtm, "**********</h3>\n");
+         fprintf(ficresphtmfr, "**********</h3>\n");
          fprintf(ficlog, "\n#********** Variable ");
          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficlog, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)]);
-         fprintf(ficlog, "**********\n#");
+         fprintf(ficlog, "**********\n");
        }
-       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+       fprintf(ficresphtm,"<table style=\"text-align:center; border: 1px solid\">");
+       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {
          fprintf(ficresp, " Age Prev(%d) N(%d) N",i,i);
+         fprintf(ficresphtm, "<th>Age</th><th>Prev(%d)</th><th>N(%d)</th><th>N</th>",i,i);
+       }
        fprintf(ficresp, "\n");
+       fprintf(ficresphtm, "\n");
+       /* Header of frequency table by age */
+       fprintf(ficresphtmfr,"<table style=\"text-align:center; border: 1px solid\">");
+       fprintf(ficresphtmfr,"<th>Age</th> ");
+       for(jk=-1; jk <=nlstate+ndeath; jk++){
+         for(m=-1; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++){
+           if(jk!=0 && m!=0)
+             fprintf(ficresphtmfr,"<th>%d%d</th> ",jk,m);
+         }
+       }
+       fprintf(ficresphtmfr, "\n");
+       /* For each age */
        for(i=iagemin; i <= iagemax+3; i++){
-         if(i==iagemax+3){
+         fprintf(ficresphtm,"<tr>");
+         if(i==iagemax+1){
+           fprintf(ficlog,"1");
+           fprintf(ficresphtmfr,"<tr><th>0</th> ");
+         }else if(i==iagemax+2){
+           fprintf(ficlog,"0");
+           fprintf(ficresphtmfr,"<tr><th>Unknown</th> ");
+         }else if(i==iagemax+3){
            fprintf(ficlog,"Total");
+           fprintf(ficresphtmfr,"<tr><th>Total</th> ");
          }else{
            if(first==1){
              first=0;
              printf("See log file for details...\n");
            }
+           fprintf(ficresphtmfr,"<tr><th>%d</th> ",i);
            fprintf(ficlog,"Age %d", i);
          }
          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
- Line 3078  void  freqsummary(char fileres[], int ia
+ Line 3892  void  freqsummary(char fileres[], int ia
            if( i <= iagemax){
              if(pos>=1.e-5){
                fprintf(ficresp," %d %.5f %.0f %.0f",i,prop[jk][i]/posprop, prop[jk][i],posprop);
+               fprintf(ficresphtm,"<th>%d</th><td>%.5f</td><td>%.0f</td><td>%.0f</td>",i,prop[jk][i]/posprop, prop[jk][i],posprop);
                /*probs[i][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;*/
                /*printf("\ni=%d jk=%d j1=%d %.5f %.0f %.0f %f",i,jk,j1,pp[jk]/pos, pp[jk],pos,probs[i][jk][j1]);*/
              }
-             else
+             else{
                fprintf(ficresp," %d NaNq %.0f %.0f",i,prop[jk][i],posprop);
+               fprintf(ficresphtm,"<th>%d</th><td>NaNq</td><td>%.0f</td><td>%.0f</td>",i, prop[jk][i],posprop);
+             }
            }
          }
-         for(jk=-1; jk <=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)
+         for(jk=-1; jk <=nlstate+ndeath; jk++){
-           for(m=-1; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)
+           for(m=-1; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++){
-             if(freq[jk][m][i] !=0 ) {
+             if(freq[jk][m][i] !=0 ) { /* minimizing output */
-             if(first==1)
+               if(first==1){
-               printf(" %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);
+                 printf(" %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);
+               }
                fprintf(ficlog," %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);
              }
-         if(i <= iagemax)
+             if(jk!=0 && m!=0)
+               fprintf(ficresphtmfr,"<td>%.0f</td> ",freq[jk][m][i]);
+           }
+         }
+         fprintf(ficresphtmfr,"</tr>\n ");
+         if(i <= iagemax){
            fprintf(ficresp,"\n");
+           fprintf(ficresphtm,"</tr>\n");
+         }
          if(first==1)
            printf("Others in log...\n");
          fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
-       }
+       } /* end loop i */
+       fprintf(ficresphtm,"</table>\n");
+       fprintf(ficresphtmfr,"</table>\n");
        /*}*/
-   }
+   } /* end j1 */
    dateintmean=dateintsum/k2cpt;
    fclose(ficresp);
-   free_ma3x(freq,-5,nlstate+ndeath,-5,nlstate+ndeath, iagemin, iagemax+3);
+   fclose(ficresphtm);
+   fclose(ficresphtmfr);
+   free_ma3x(freq,-5,nlstate+ndeath,-5,nlstate+ndeath, iagemin-AGEMARGE, iagemax+3+AGEMARGE);
    free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);
-   free_matrix(prop,1,nlstate,iagemin, iagemax+3);
+   free_matrix(prop,1,nlstate,iagemin-AGEMARGE, iagemax+3+AGEMARGE);
    /* End of Freq */
  }
- Line 3119  void prevalence(double ***probs, double
+ Line 3948  void prevalence(double ***probs, double
    */
    int i, m, jk, j1, bool, z1,j;
+   int mi; /* Effective wave */
+   int iage;
+   double agebegin, ageend;
    double **prop;
    double posprop;
- Line 3129  void prevalence(double ***probs, double
+ Line 3961  void prevalence(double ***probs, double
    iagemin= (int) agemin;
    iagemax= (int) agemax;
    /*pp=vector(1,nlstate);*/
-   prop=matrix(1,nlstate,iagemin,iagemax+3);
+   prop=matrix(1,nlstate,iagemin-AGEMARGE,iagemax+3+AGEMARGE);
    /*  freq=ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,iagemin,iagemax+3);*/
    j1=0;
- Line 3138  void prevalence(double ***probs, double
+ Line 3970  void prevalence(double ***probs, double
    first=1;
    for(j1=1; j1<= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff);j1++){
-     /*for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
+     for (i=1; i<=nlstate; i++)
-       j1++;*/
+       for(iage=iagemin-AGEMARGE; iage <= iagemax+3+AGEMARGE; iage++)
+                                 prop[i][iage]=0.0;
+     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) { /* Each individual */
+       bool=1;
+       if  (cptcovn>0) {  /* Filter is here: Must be looked at for model=V1+V2+V3+V4 */
+                                 for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++)
+                                         if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)])
+                                                 bool=0;
+       }
+       if (bool==1) {
+                                 /* for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){/\* Other selection (we can limit to certain interviews*\/ */
+                                 for(mi=1; mi<wav[i];mi++){
+                                         m=mw[mi][i];
+                                         agebegin=agev[m][i]; /* Age at beginning of wave before transition*/
+                                         /* ageend=agev[m][i]+(dh[m][i])*stepm/YEARM; /\* Age at end of wave and transition *\/ */
+                                         if(m >=firstpass && m <=lastpass){
+                                                 y2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.); /* Fractional date in year */
+                                                 if ((y2>=dateprev1) && (y2<=dateprev2)) { /* Here is the main selection (fractional years) */
+                                                         if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=iagemax+1;
+                                                         if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=iagemax+2;
+                                                         if((int)agev[m][i] <iagemin-AGEMARGE || (int)agev[m][i] >iagemax+3+AGEMARGE){
+                                                                 printf("Error on individual # %d agev[m][i]=%f <%d-%d or > %d+3+%d  m=%d; either change agemin or agemax or fix data\n",i, agev[m][i],iagemin,AGEMARGE, iagemax,AGEMARGE,m);
+                                                                 exit(1);
+                                                         }
+                                                         if (s[m][i]>0 && s[m][i]<=nlstate) {
+                                                                 /*if(i>4620) printf(" i=%d m=%d s[m][i]=%d (int)agev[m][i]=%d weight[i]=%f prop=%f\n",i,m,s[m][i],(int)agev[m][m],weight[i],prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]]);*/
+                                                                 prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];/* At age of beginning of transition, where status is known */
+                                                                 prop[s[m][i]][iagemax+3] += weight[i];
+                                                         } /* end valid statuses */
+                                                 } /* end selection of dates */
+                                         } /* end selection of waves */
+                                 } /* end effective waves */
+       } /* end bool */
+     }
+     for(i=iagemin; i <= iagemax+3; i++){
+       for(jk=1,posprop=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++) {
+                                 posprop += prop[jk][i];
+       }
-       for (i=1; i<=nlstate; i++)
+       for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
-         for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
+                                 if( i <=  iagemax){
-           prop[i][m]=0.0;
+                                         if(posprop>=1.e-5){
+                                                 probs[i][jk][j1]= prop[jk][i]/posprop;
-       for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) { /* Each individual */
+                                         } else{
-         bool=1;
+                                                 if(first==1){
-         if  (cptcovn>0) {
+                                                         first=0;
-           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++)
+                                                         printf("Warning Observed prevalence probs[%d][%d][%d]=%lf because of lack of cases\nSee others on log file...\n",jk,i,j1,probs[i][jk][j1]);
-             if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtabm(j1,z1)])
+                                                 }
-               bool=0;
+                                         }
-         }
+                                 }
-         if (bool==1) {
+       }/* end jk */
-           for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){/* Other selection (we can limit to certain interviews*/
+     }/* end i */
-             y2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.); /* Fractional date in year */
-             if ((y2>=dateprev1) && (y2<=dateprev2)) { /* Here is the main selection (fractional years) */
-               if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=iagemax+1;
-               if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=iagemax+2;
-               if((int)agev[m][i] <iagemin || (int)agev[m][i] >iagemax+3) printf("Error on individual =%d agev[m][i]=%f m=%d\n",i, agev[m][i],m);
-               if (s[m][i]>0 && s[m][i]<=nlstate) {
-                 /*if(i>4620) printf(" i=%d m=%d s[m][i]=%d (int)agev[m][i]=%d weight[i]=%f prop=%f\n",i,m,s[m][i],(int)agev[m][m],weight[i],prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]]);*/
-                 prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
-                 prop[s[m][i]][iagemax+3] += weight[i];
-               }
-             }
-           } /* end selection of waves */
-         }
-       }
-       for(i=iagemin; i <= iagemax+3; i++){
-         for(jk=1,posprop=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++) {
-           posprop += prop[jk][i];
-         }
-         for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
-           if( i <=  iagemax){
-             if(posprop>=1.e-5){
-               probs[i][jk][j1]= prop[jk][i]/posprop;
-             } else{
-               if(first==1){
-                 first=0;
-                 printf("Warning Observed prevalence probs[%d][%d][%d]=%lf because of lack of cases\nSee others on log file...\n",jk,i,j1,probs[i][jk][j1]);
-               }
-             }
-           }
-         }/* end jk */
-       }/* end i */
      /*} *//* end i1 */
    } /* end j1 */
    /*  free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath, iagemin, iagemax+3);*/
    /*free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);*/
-   free_matrix(prop,1,nlstate, iagemin,iagemax+3);
+   free_matrix(prop,1,nlstate, iagemin-AGEMARGE,iagemax+3+AGEMARGE);
  }  /* End of prevalence */
  /************* Waves Concatenation ***************/
- Line 3208  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int
+ Line 4046  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int
    int i, mi, m;
    /* int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl,jmin=1e+5, jmax=-1;
       double sum=0., jmean=0.;*/
-   int first;
+   int first, firstwo, firsthree, firstfour;
    int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl;
    double sum=0.;
    first=0;
+   firstwo=0;
+   firsthree=0;
+   firstfour=0;
    jmin=100000;
    jmax=-1;
    jmean=0.;
-   for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){
+   for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){  /* For simple cases and if state is death */
      mi=0;
      m=firstpass;
-     while(s[m][i] <= nlstate){
+     while(s[m][i] <= nlstate){  /* a live state */
-       if(s[m][i]>=1 || s[m][i]==-2 || s[m][i]==-4 || s[m][i]==-5)
+       if(s[m][i]>=1 || s[m][i]==-4 || s[m][i]==-5){ /* Since 0.98r4 if status=-2 vital status is really unknown, wave should be skipped */
          mw[++mi][i]=m;
-       if(m >=lastpass)
+       }
+       if(m >=lastpass){
+         if(s[m][i]==-1 && (int) andc[i] == 9999 && (int)anint[m][i] != 9999){
+           if(firsthree == 0){
+             printf("Information! Unknown health status for individual %ld line=%d occurred at last wave %d at known date %d/%d. Please, check if your unknown date of death %d/%d means a live state %d at wave %d. This case(%d)/wave(%d) contributes to the likelihood.\nOthers in log file only\n",num[i],i,lastpass,(int)mint[m][i],(int)anint[m][i], (int) moisdc[i], (int) andc[i], s[m][i], m, i, m);
+             firsthree=1;
+           }
+           fprintf(ficlog,"Information! Unknown status for individual %ld line=%d occurred at last wave %d at known date %d/%d. Please, check if your unknown date of death %d/%d means a live state %d at wave %d. This case(%d)/wave(%d) contributes to the likelihood.\n",num[i],i,lastpass,(int)mint[m][i],(int)anint[m][i], (int) moisdc[i], (int) andc[i], s[m][i], m, i, m);
+           mw[++mi][i]=m;
+         }
+         if(s[m][i]==-2){ /* Vital status is really unknown */
+           nbwarn++;
+           if((int)anint[m][i] == 9999){  /*  Has the vital status really been verified? */
+             printf("Warning! Vital status for individual %ld (line=%d) at last wave %d interviewed at date %d/%d is unknown %d. Please, check if the vital status and the date of death %d/%d are really unknown. This case (%d)/wave (%d) is skipped, no contribution to likelihood.\nOthers in log file only\n",num[i],i,lastpass,(int)mint[m][i],(int)anint[m][i], s[m][i], (int) moisdc[i], (int) andc[i], i, m);
+             fprintf(ficlog,"Warning! Vital status for individual %ld (line=%d) at last wave %d interviewed at date %d/%d is unknown %d. Please, check if the vital status and the date of death %d/%d are really unknown. This case (%d)/wave (%d) is skipped, no contribution to likelihood.\nOthers in log file only\n",num[i],i,lastpass,(int)mint[m][i],(int)anint[m][i], s[m][i], (int) moisdc[i], (int) andc[i], i, m);
+           }
+           break;
+         }
          break;
+       }
        else
          m++;
      }/* end while */
-     if (s[m][i] > nlstate){
+     /* After last pass */
+     if (s[m][i] > nlstate){  /* In a death state */
        mi++;     /* Death is another wave */
        /* if(mi==0)  never been interviewed correctly before death */
           /* Only death is a correct wave */
        mw[mi][i]=m;
+     }else if ((int) andc[i] != 9999) { /* Status is either death or negative. A death occured after lastpass, we can't take it into account because of potential bias */
+       /* m++; */
+       /* mi++; */
+       /* s[m][i]=nlstate+1;  /\* We are setting the status to the last of non live state *\/ */
+       /* mw[mi][i]=m; */
+       nberr++;
+       if ((int)anint[m][i]!= 9999) { /* date of last interview is known */
+         if(firstwo==0){
+           printf("Error! Death for individual %ld line=%d  occurred %d/%d after last wave %d interviewed at %d/%d. Potential bias if other individuals are still alive at this date but ignored. This case (%d)/wave (%d) is skipped, no contribution to likelihood.\nOthers in log file only\n",num[i],i,(int) moisdc[i], (int) andc[i], lastpass,(int)mint[m][i],(int)anint[m][i], i,m );
+           firstwo=1;
+         }
+         fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Death for individual %ld line=%d  occurred %d/%d after last wave %d interviewed at %d/%d. Potential bias if other individuals are still alive at this date but ignored. This case (%d)/wave (%d) is skipped, no contribution to likelihood.\n",num[i],i,(int) moisdc[i], (int) andc[i], lastpass,(int)mint[m][i],(int)anint[m][i], i,m );
+       }else{ /* end date of interview is known */
+         /* death is known but not confirmed by death status at any wave */
+         if(firstfour==0){
+           printf("Error! Death for individual %ld line=%d  occurred %d/%d but not confirmed by any death status for any wave, including last wave %d at unknown date %d/%d. Potential bias if other individuals are still alive at this date but ignored. This case (%d)/wave (%d) is skipped, no contribution to likelihood.\nOthers in log file only\n",num[i],i,(int) moisdc[i], (int) andc[i], lastpass,(int)mint[m][i],(int)anint[m][i], i,m );
+           firstfour=1;
+         }
+         fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Death for individual %ld line=%d  occurred %d/%d but not confirmed by any death status for any wave, including last wave %d at unknown date %d/%d. Potential bias if other individuals are still alive at this date but ignored. This case (%d)/wave (%d) is skipped, no contribution to likelihood.\n",num[i],i,(int) moisdc[i], (int) andc[i], lastpass,(int)mint[m][i],(int)anint[m][i], i,m );
+       }
      }
      wav[i]=mi;
      if(mi==0){
        nbwarn++;
- Line 3245  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int
+ Line 4125  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int
        }
      } /* end mi==0 */
    } /* End individuals */
+   /* wav and mw are no more changed */
    for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){
      for(mi=1; mi<wav[i];mi++){
        if (stepm <=0)
- Line 3675  void cvevsij(double ***eij, double x[],
+ Line 4557  void cvevsij(double ***eij, double x[],
      /* Typically if 20 years nstepm = 20*12/6=40 stepm */
      /* if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;*/
      nhstepma = nstepma/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepma=40/4=10 */
      /* If stepm=6 months */
      /* Computed by stepm unit matrices, product of hstepma matrices, stored
         in an array of nhstepma length: nhstepma=10, hstepm=4, stepm=6 months */
      hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
      /* Computing  Variances of health expectancies */
      /* Gradient is computed with plus gp and minus gm. Code is duplicated in order to
         decrease memory allocation */
      for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){
-         xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
+                                 xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
-         xm[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
+                                 xm[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
        }
        hpxij(p3matp,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, cij);
        hpxij(p3matm,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xm,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, cij);
        for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
-         for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++){
+                                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++){
-           for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
+                                         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
-             gp[h][(j-1)*nlstate + i] = (p3matp[i][j][h]+p3matp[i][j][h+1])/2.;
+                                                 gp[h][(j-1)*nlstate + i] = (p3matp[i][j][h]+p3matp[i][j][h+1])/2.;
-             gm[h][(j-1)*nlstate + i] = (p3matm[i][j][h]+p3matm[i][j][h+1])/2.;
+                                                 gm[h][(j-1)*nlstate + i] = (p3matm[i][j][h]+p3matm[i][j][h+1])/2.;
-           }
+                                         }
-         }
+                                 }
        }
        for(ij=1; ij<= nlstate*nlstate; ij++)
-         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
+                                 for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
-           gradg[h][theta][ij]= (gp[h][ij]-gm[h][ij])/2./delti[theta];
+                                         gradg[h][theta][ij]= (gp[h][ij]-gm[h][ij])/2./delti[theta];
-         }
+                                 }
      }/* End theta */
      for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++)
        for(j=1; j<=nlstate*nlstate;j++)
-         for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
+                                 for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
-           trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];
+                                         trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];
-      for(ij=1;ij<=nlstate*nlstate;ij++)
+                 for(ij=1;ij<=nlstate*nlstate;ij++)
        for(ji=1;ji<=nlstate*nlstate;ji++)
-         varhe[ij][ji][(int)age] =0.;
+                                 varhe[ij][ji][(int)age] =0.;
-      printf("%d|",(int)age);fflush(stdout);
+                 printf("%d|",(int)age);fflush(stdout);
-      fprintf(ficlog,"%d|",(int)age);fflush(ficlog);
+                 fprintf(ficlog,"%d|",(int)age);fflush(ficlog);
-      for(h=0;h<=nhstepm-1;h++){
+                 for(h=0;h<=nhstepm-1;h++){
        for(k=0;k<=nhstepm-1;k++){
-         matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
+                                 matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
-         matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate*nlstate,gradg[k]);
+                                 matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate*nlstate,gradg[k]);
-         for(ij=1;ij<=nlstate*nlstate;ij++)
+                                 for(ij=1;ij<=nlstate*nlstate;ij++)
-           for(ji=1;ji<=nlstate*nlstate;ji++)
+                                         for(ji=1;ji<=nlstate*nlstate;ji++)
-             varhe[ij][ji][(int)age] += doldm[ij][ji]*hf*hf;
+                                                 varhe[ij][ji][(int)age] += doldm[ij][ji]*hf*hf;
        }
      }
      /* Computing expectancies */
      hpxij(p3matm,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm, savm, cij);
      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
-         for (h=0, eij[i][j][(int)age]=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
+                                 for (h=0, eij[i][j][(int)age]=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
-           eij[i][j][(int)age] += (p3matm[i][j][h]+p3matm[i][j][h+1])/2.0*hf;
+                                         eij[i][j][(int)age] += (p3matm[i][j][h]+p3matm[i][j][h+1])/2.0*hf;
-           /* if((int)age==70)printf("i=%2d,j=%2d,h=%2d,age=%3d,%9.4f,%9.4f,%9.4f\n",i,j,h,(int)age,p3mat[i][j][h],hf,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
+                                         /* if((int)age==70)printf("i=%2d,j=%2d,h=%2d,age=%3d,%9.4f,%9.4f,%9.4f\n",i,j,h,(int)age,p3mat[i][j][h],hf,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
-         }
+                                 }
      fprintf(ficresstdeij,"%3.0f",age );
      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
        eip=0.;
        vip=0.;
        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
-         eip += eij[i][j][(int)age];
+                                 eip += eij[i][j][(int)age];
-         for(k=1; k<=nlstate;k++) /* Sum on j and k of cov(eij,eik) */
+                                 for(k=1; k<=nlstate;k++) /* Sum on j and k of cov(eij,eik) */
-           vip += varhe[(j-1)*nlstate+i][(k-1)*nlstate+i][(int)age];
+                                         vip += varhe[(j-1)*nlstate+i][(k-1)*nlstate+i][(int)age];
-         fprintf(ficresstdeij," %9.4f (%.4f)", eij[i][j][(int)age], sqrt(varhe[(j-1)*nlstate+i][(j-1)*nlstate+i][(int)age]) );
+                                 fprintf(ficresstdeij," %9.4f (%.4f)", eij[i][j][(int)age], sqrt(varhe[(j-1)*nlstate+i][(j-1)*nlstate+i][(int)age]) );
        }
        fprintf(ficresstdeij," %9.4f (%.4f)", eip, sqrt(vip));
      }
      fprintf(ficresstdeij,"\n");
      fprintf(ficrescveij,"%3.0f",age );
      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
-         cptj= (j-1)*nlstate+i;
+                                 cptj= (j-1)*nlstate+i;
-         for(i2=1; i2<=nlstate;i2++)
+                                 for(i2=1; i2<=nlstate;i2++)
-           for(j2=1; j2<=nlstate;j2++){
+                                         for(j2=1; j2<=nlstate;j2++){
-             cptj2= (j2-1)*nlstate+i2;
+                                                 cptj2= (j2-1)*nlstate+i2;
-             if(cptj2 <= cptj)
+                                                 if(cptj2 <= cptj)
-               fprintf(ficrescveij," %.4f", varhe[cptj][cptj2][(int)age]);
+                                                         fprintf(ficrescveij," %.4f", varhe[cptj][cptj2][(int)age]);
-           }
+                                         }
        }
      fprintf(ficrescveij,"\n");
    }
    free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
    free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
- Line 3778  void cvevsij(double ***eij, double x[],
+ Line 4660  void cvevsij(double ***eij, double x[],
    free_ma3x(p3matp,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
    printf("\n");
    fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
    free_vector(xm,1,npar);
    free_vector(xp,1,npar);
    free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
    free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate);
    free_ma3x(varhe,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
  }
- /************ Variance ******************/
- void varevsij(char optionfilefiname[], double ***vareij, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij, int estepm, int cptcov, int cptcod, int popbased, int mobilav, char strstart[])
- {
-   /* Variance of health expectancies */
-   /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double ** savm,double ftolpl);*/
-   /* double **newm;*/
-   /* int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav)*/
-   int movingaverage();
-   double **dnewm,**doldm;
-   double **dnewmp,**doldmp;
-   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm ;
-   int k;
-   double *xp;
-   double **gp, **gm;  /* for var eij */
-   double ***gradg, ***trgradg; /*for var eij */
-   double **gradgp, **trgradgp; /* for var p point j */
-   double *gpp, *gmp; /* for var p point j */
-   double **varppt; /* for var p point j nlstate to nlstate+ndeath */
-   double ***p3mat;
-   double age,agelim, hf;
-   double ***mobaverage;
-   int theta;
-   char digit[4];
-   char digitp[25];
-   char fileresprobmorprev[FILENAMELENGTH];
-   if(popbased==1){
-     if(mobilav!=0)
-       strcpy(digitp,"-populbased-mobilav-");
-     else strcpy(digitp,"-populbased-nomobil-");
-   }
-   else
-     strcpy(digitp,"-stablbased-");
-   if (mobilav!=0) {
-     mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
-     if (movingaverage(probs, bage, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
-       fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
-       printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
-     }
-   }
-   strcpy(fileresprobmorprev,"prmorprev");
-   sprintf(digit,"%-d",ij);
-   /*printf("DIGIT=%s, ij=%d ijr=%-d|\n",digit, ij,ij);*/
-   strcat(fileresprobmorprev,digit); /* Tvar to be done */
-   strcat(fileresprobmorprev,digitp); /* Popbased or not, mobilav or not */
-   strcat(fileresprobmorprev,fileres);
-   if((ficresprobmorprev=fopen(fileresprobmorprev,"w"))==NULL) {
-     printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobmorprev);
-     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobmorprev);
-   }
-   printf("Computing total mortality p.j=w1*p1j+w2*p2j+..: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobmorprev);
-   fprintf(ficlog,"Computing total mortality p.j=w1*p1j+w2*p2j+..: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobmorprev);
+ /************ Variance ******************/
-   pstamp(ficresprobmorprev);
+  void varevsij(char optionfilefiname[], double ***vareij, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int *ncvyearp, int ij, int estepm, int cptcov, int cptcod, int popbased, int mobilav, char strstart[])
-   fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"# probabilities of dying before estepm=%d months for people of exact age and weighted probabilities w1*p1j+w2*p2j+... stand dev in()\n",estepm);
+  {
-   fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"# Age cov=%-d",ij);
+    /* Variance of health expectancies */
-   for(j=nlstate+1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
+    /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double ** savm,double ftolpl);*/
-     fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," p.%-d SE",j);
+    /* double **newm;*/
-     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+    /* int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav)*/
-       fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," w%1d p%-d%-d",i,i,j);
-   }
+    /* int movingaverage(); */
-   fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"\n");
+    double **dnewm,**doldm;
-   fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Routine varevsij");
+    double **dnewmp,**doldmp;
-   fprintf(ficgp,"\nunset title \n");
+    int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm ;
- /* fprintf(fichtm, "#Local time at start: %s", strstart);*/
+    int k;
-   fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> Computing probabilities of dying over estepm months as a weighted average (i.e global mortality independent of initial healh state)</h4></li>\n");
+    double *xp;
-   fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>%s  <br>\n",digitp);
+    double **gp, **gm;  /* for var eij */
- /*   } */
+    double ***gradg, ***trgradg; /*for var eij */
-   varppt = matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+    double **gradgp, **trgradgp; /* for var p point j */
-   pstamp(ficresvij);
+    double *gpp, *gmp; /* for var p point j */
-   fprintf(ficresvij,"# Variance and covariance of health expectancies e.j \n#  (weighted average of eij where weights are ");
+    double **varppt; /* for var p point j nlstate to nlstate+ndeath */
-   if(popbased==1)
+    double ***p3mat;
-     fprintf(ficresvij,"the age specific prevalence observed (cross-sectionally) in the population i.e cross-sectionally\n in each health state (popbased=1) (mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
+    double age,agelim, hf;
-   else
+    /* double ***mobaverage; */
-     fprintf(ficresvij,"the age specific period (stable) prevalences in each health state \n");
+    int theta;
-   fprintf(ficresvij,"# Age");
+    char digit[4];
-   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+    char digitp[25];
-     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
-       fprintf(ficresvij," Cov(e.%1d, e.%1d)",i,j);
+    char fileresprobmorprev[FILENAMELENGTH];
-   fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
+    if(popbased==1){
-   xp=vector(1,npar);
+      if(mobilav!=0)
-   dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
+        strcpy(digitp,"-POPULBASED-MOBILAV_");
-   doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
+      else strcpy(digitp,"-POPULBASED-NOMOBIL_");
-   dnewmp= matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar);
+    }
-   doldmp= matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+    else
+      strcpy(digitp,"-STABLBASED_");
-   gradgp=matrix(1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
-   gpp=vector(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
-   gmp=vector(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
-   trgradgp =matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar); /* mu or p point j*/
-   if(estepm < stepm){
-     printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
-   }
-   else  hstepm=estepm;
-   /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
-   /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm.
-      nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim
-      nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin.
-      Look at function hpijx to understand why (it is linked to memory size questions) */
-   /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
-      survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
-      means that if the survival funtion is printed every two years of age and if
-      you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same
-      results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.
-   */
-   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */
-   agelim = AGESUP;
-   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
-     nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */
-     nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
-     p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
-     gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
-     gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
-     gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
-     for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
-       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient x + delta*/
-         xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
-       }
-       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);
-       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
-       if (popbased==1) {
-         if(mobilav ==0){
-           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-             prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
-         }else{ /* mobilav */
-           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-             prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
-         }
-       }
-       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
-         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
-           for(i=1, gp[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
-             gp[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
-         }
-       }
-       /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
-          computed over hstepm matrices product = hstepm*stepm months)
-          as a weighted average of prlim.
-       */
-       for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
-         for(i=1,gpp[j]=0.; i<= nlstate; i++)
-           gpp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
-       }
-       /* end probability of death */
-       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient x - delta */
-         xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
-       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);
-       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
-       if (popbased==1) {
-         if(mobilav ==0){
-           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-             prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
-         }else{ /* mobilav */
-           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-             prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
-         }
-       }
-       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){  /* Sum of wi * eij = e.j */
-         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
-           for(i=1, gm[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
-             gm[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
-         }
-       }
-       /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
-          computed over hstepm matrices product = hstepm*stepm months)
-          as a weighted average of prlim.
-       */
-       for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
-         for(i=1,gmp[j]=0.; i<= nlstate; i++)
-          gmp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
-       }
-       /* end probability of death */
-       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++) /* vareij */
-         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
-           gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];
-         }
-       for(j=nlstate+1; j<= nlstate+ndeath; j++){ /* var mu */
-         gradgp[theta][j]= (gpp[j]-gmp[j])/2./delti[theta];
-       }
-     } /* End theta */
-     trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar); /* veij */
-     for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++) /* veij */
-       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
-         for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
-           trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];
-     for(j=nlstate+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) /* mu */
-       for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
-         trgradgp[j][theta]=gradgp[theta][j];
-     hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
-     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
-       for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
-         vareij[i][j][(int)age] =0.;
-     for(h=0;h<=nhstepm;h++){
+    /* if (mobilav!=0) { */
-       for(k=0;k<=nhstepm;k++){
+    /*   mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX); */
-         matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
+    /*   if (movingaverage(probs, bage, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){ */
-         matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg[k]);
+    /*     fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav); */
-         for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
+    /*     printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav); */
-           for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
+    /*   } */
-             vareij[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j]*hf*hf;
+    /* } */
-       }
-     }
+    strcpy(fileresprobmorprev,"PRMORPREV-");
+    sprintf(digit,"%-d",ij);
+    /*printf("DIGIT=%s, ij=%d ijr=%-d|\n",digit, ij,ij);*/
+    strcat(fileresprobmorprev,digit); /* Tvar to be done */
+    strcat(fileresprobmorprev,digitp); /* Popbased or not, mobilav or not */
+    strcat(fileresprobmorprev,fileresu);
+    if((ficresprobmorprev=fopen(fileresprobmorprev,"w"))==NULL) {
+      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobmorprev);
+      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobmorprev);
+    }
+    printf("Computing total mortality p.j=w1*p1j+w2*p2j+..: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobmorprev);
+    fprintf(ficlog,"Computing total mortality p.j=w1*p1j+w2*p2j+..: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobmorprev);
+    pstamp(ficresprobmorprev);
+    fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"# probabilities of dying before estepm=%d months for people of exact age and weighted probabilities w1*p1j+w2*p2j+... stand dev in()\n",estepm);
+    fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"# Age cov=%-d",ij);
+    for(j=nlstate+1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
+      fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," p.%-d SE",j);
+      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+        fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," w%1d p%-d%-d",i,i,j);
+    }
+    fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"\n");
+    fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Routine varevsij");
+    fprintf(ficgp,"\nunset title \n");
+    /* fprintf(fichtm, "#Local time at start: %s", strstart);*/
+    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> Computing probabilities of dying over estepm months as a weighted average (i.e global mortality independent of initial healh state)</h4></li>\n");
+    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>%s  <br>\n",digitp);
+    /*   } */
+    varppt = matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+    pstamp(ficresvij);
+    fprintf(ficresvij,"# Variance and covariance of health expectancies e.j \n#  (weighted average of eij where weights are ");
+    if(popbased==1)
+      fprintf(ficresvij,"the age specific prevalence observed (cross-sectionally) in the population i.e cross-sectionally\n in each health state (popbased=1) (mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
+    else
+      fprintf(ficresvij,"the age specific period (stable) prevalences in each health state \n");
+    fprintf(ficresvij,"# Age");
+    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+      for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
+        fprintf(ficresvij," Cov(e.%1d, e.%1d)",i,j);
+    fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
+    xp=vector(1,npar);
+    dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
+    doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
+    dnewmp= matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar);
+    doldmp= matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+    gradgp=matrix(1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+    gpp=vector(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+    gmp=vector(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+    trgradgp =matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar); /* mu or p point j*/
-     /* pptj */
+    if(estepm < stepm){
-     matprod2(dnewmp,trgradgp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
+      printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
-     matprod2(doldmp,dnewmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,gradgp);
+    }
-     for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
+    else  hstepm=estepm;
-       for(i=nlstate+1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)
+    /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
-         varppt[j][i]=doldmp[j][i];
+    /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm.
-     /* end ppptj */
+       nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim
-     /*  x centered again */
+       nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelim.
-     hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);
+       Look at function hpijx to understand why because of memory size limitations,
-     prevalim(prlim,nlstate,x,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
+       we decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
+       survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
-     if (popbased==1) {
+       means that if the survival funtion is printed every two years of age and if
-       if(mobilav ==0){
+       you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same
-         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+       results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.
-           prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
+    */
-       }else{ /* mobilav */
+    hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */
-         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+    agelim = AGESUP;
-           prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
+    for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
-       }
+      nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */
-     }
+      nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
+      p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
-     /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
+      gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
-        computed over hstepm (estepm) matrices product = hstepm*stepm months)
+      gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
-        as a weighted average of prlim.
+      gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
+      for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
+        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient x + delta*/
+          xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
+        }
+        prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ncvyearp,ij);
+        if (popbased==1) {
+          if(mobilav ==0){
+            for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+              prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
+          }else{ /* mobilav */
+            for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+              prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
+          }
+        }
+        hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  /* Returns p3mat[i][j][h] for h=1 to nhstepm */
+        for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
+          for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
+            for(i=1, gp[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
+              gp[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
+          }
+        }
+        /* Next for computing probability of death (h=1 means
+           computed over hstepm matrices product = hstepm*stepm months)
+           as a weighted average of prlim.
+        */
+        for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+          for(i=1,gpp[j]=0.; i<= nlstate; i++)
+            gpp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
+        }
+        /* end probability of death */
+        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient x - delta */
+          xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
+        prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ncvyearp, ij);
+        if (popbased==1) {
+          if(mobilav ==0){
+            for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+              prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
+          }else{ /* mobilav */
+            for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+              prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
+          }
+        }
+        hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);
+        for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){  /* Sum of wi * eij = e.j */
+          for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
+            for(i=1, gm[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
+              gm[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
+          }
+        }
+        /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
+           computed over hstepm matrices product = hstepm*stepm months)
+           as a weighted average of prlim.
+        */
+        for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+          for(i=1,gmp[j]=0.; i<= nlstate; i++)
+            gmp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
+        }
+        /* end probability of death */
+        for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++) /* vareij */
+          for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
+            gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];
+          }
+        for(j=nlstate+1; j<= nlstate+ndeath; j++){ /* var mu */
+          gradgp[theta][j]= (gpp[j]-gmp[j])/2./delti[theta];
+        }
+      } /* End theta */
+      trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar); /* veij */
+      for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++) /* veij */
+        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
+          for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
+            trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];
+      for(j=nlstate+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) /* mu */
+        for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
+          trgradgp[j][theta]=gradgp[theta][j];
+      hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
+      for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
+        for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
+          vareij[i][j][(int)age] =0.;
+      for(h=0;h<=nhstepm;h++){
+        for(k=0;k<=nhstepm;k++){
+          matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
+          matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg[k]);
+          for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
+            for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
+              vareij[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j]*hf*hf;
+        }
+      }
+      /* pptj */
+      matprod2(dnewmp,trgradgp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
+      matprod2(doldmp,dnewmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,gradgp);
+      for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
+        for(i=nlstate+1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)
+          varppt[j][i]=doldmp[j][i];
+      /* end ppptj */
+      /*  x centered again */
+      prevalim(prlim,nlstate,x,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ncvyearp,ij);
+      if (popbased==1) {
+        if(mobilav ==0){
+          for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+            prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
+        }else{ /* mobilav */
+          for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+            prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
+        }
+      }
+      /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
+         computed over hstepm (estepm) matrices product = hstepm*stepm months)
+         as a weighted average of prlim.
+      */
+      hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);
+      for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+        for(i=1,gmp[j]=0.;i<= nlstate; i++)
+          gmp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
+      }
+      /* end probability of death */
+      fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"%3d %d ",(int) age, ij);
+      for(j=nlstate+1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
+        fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," %11.3e %11.3e",gmp[j], sqrt(varppt[j][j]));
+        for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+          fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," %11.3e %11.3e ",prlim[i][i],p3mat[i][j][1]);
+        }
+      }
+      fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"\n");
+      fprintf(ficresvij,"%.0f ",age );
+      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
+          fprintf(ficresvij," %.4f", vareij[i][j][(int)age]);
+        }
+      fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
+      free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
+      free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
+      free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
+      free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
+      free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+    } /* End age */
+    free_vector(gpp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+    free_vector(gmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+    free_matrix(gradgp,1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+    free_matrix(trgradgp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar); /* mu or p point j*/
+    /* fprintf(ficgp,"\nunset parametric;unset label; set ter png small size 320, 240"); */
+    fprintf(ficgp,"\nunset parametric;unset label; set ter svg size 640, 480");
+    /* for(j=nlstate+1; j<= nlstate+ndeath; j++){ *//* Only the first actually */
+    fprintf(ficgp,"\n set log y; unset log x;set xlabel \"Age\"; set ylabel \"Force of mortality (year-1)\";");
+    fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%s.svg\";",subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"VARMUPTJGR-",digitp),digit);
+    /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n plot \"%s\"  u 1:($3*%6.3f) not w l 1 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
+    /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)*%6.3f) t \"95\%% interval\" w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
+    /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)*%6.3f) not w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
+    fprintf(ficgp,"\n plot \"%s\"  u 1:($3) not w l lt 1 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
+    fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)) t \"95%% interval\" w l lt 2 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
+    fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)) not w l lt 2 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
+    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> File (multiple files are possible if covariates are present): <A href=\"%s\">%s</a>\n",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev),subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
+    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> Probability is computed over estepm=%d months. <br> <img src=\"%s%s.svg\"> <br>\n", estepm,subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"VARMUPTJGR-",digitp),digit);
+    /*  fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> Probability is computed over estepm=%d months and then divided by estepm and multiplied by %.0f in order to have the probability to die over a year <br> <img src=\"varmuptjgr%s%s.svg\"> <br>\n", stepm,YEARM,digitp,digit);
      */
-     for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+    /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"varmuptjgr%s%s%s.svg\";replot;",digitp,optionfilefiname,digit); */
-       for(i=1,gmp[j]=0.;i<= nlstate; i++)
+    fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out;\nset out \"%s%s.svg\";replot;set out;\n",subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"VARMUPTJGR-",digitp),digit);
-         gmp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
-     }
-     /* end probability of death */
-     fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"%3d %d ",(int) age, ij);
-     for(j=nlstate+1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
-       fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," %11.3e %11.3e",gmp[j], sqrt(varppt[j][j]));
-       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
-         fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," %11.3e %11.3e ",prlim[i][i],p3mat[i][j][1]);
-       }
-     }
-     fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"\n");
-     fprintf(ficresvij,"%.0f ",age );
+    free_vector(xp,1,npar);
-     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+    free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
-       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
+    free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
-         fprintf(ficresvij," %.4f", vareij[i][j][(int)age]);
+    free_matrix(doldmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
-       }
+    free_matrix(dnewmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar);
-     fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
+    free_matrix(varppt,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
-     free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
+    /* if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX); */
-     free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
+    fclose(ficresprobmorprev);
-     free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
+    fflush(ficgp);
-     free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
+    fflush(fichtm);
-     free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+  }  /* end varevsij */
-   } /* End age */
-   free_vector(gpp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
-   free_vector(gmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
-   free_matrix(gradgp,1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
-   free_matrix(trgradgp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar); /* mu or p point j*/
-   /* fprintf(ficgp,"\nunset parametric;unset label; set ter png small size 320, 240"); */
-   fprintf(ficgp,"\nunset parametric;unset label; set ter svg size 640, 480");
-   /* for(j=nlstate+1; j<= nlstate+ndeath; j++){ *//* Only the first actually */
-   fprintf(ficgp,"\n set log y; unset log x;set xlabel \"Age\"; set ylabel \"Force of mortality (year-1)\";");
-   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%s.svg\";",subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"varmuptjgr",digitp),digit);
- /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n plot \"%s\"  u 1:($3*%6.3f) not w l 1 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
- /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)*%6.3f) t \"95\%% interval\" w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
- /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)*%6.3f) not w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
-   fprintf(ficgp,"\n plot \"%s\"  u 1:($3) not w l lt 1 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
-   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)) t \"95%% interval\" w l lt 2 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
-   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)) not w l lt 2 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
-   fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> File (multiple files are possible if covariates are present): <A href=\"%s\">%s</a>\n",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev),subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
-   fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> Probability is computed over estepm=%d months. <br> <img src=\"%s%s.svg\"> <br>\n", estepm,subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"varmuptjgr",digitp),digit);
-   /*  fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> Probability is computed over estepm=%d months and then divided by estepm and multiplied by %.0f in order to have the probability to die over a year <br> <img src=\"varmuptjgr%s%s.svg\"> <br>\n", stepm,YEARM,digitp,digit);
- */
- /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"varmuptjgr%s%s%s.svg\";replot;",digitp,optionfilefiname,digit); */
-   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out;\nset out \"%s%s.svg\";replot;set out;\n",subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"varmuptjgr",digitp),digit);
-   free_vector(xp,1,npar);
-   free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
-   free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
-   free_matrix(doldmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
-   free_matrix(dnewmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar);
-   free_matrix(varppt,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
-   if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
-   fclose(ficresprobmorprev);
-   fflush(ficgp);
-   fflush(fichtm);
- }  /* end varevsij */
  /************ Variance of prevlim ******************/
- void varprevlim(char fileres[], double **varpl, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij, char strstart[])
+  void varprevlim(char fileres[], double **varpl, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int *ncvyearp, int ij, char strstart[])
  {
-   /* Variance of prevalence limit */
+   /* Variance of prevalence limit  for each state ij using current parameters x[] and estimates of neighbourhood give by delti*/
    /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double **savm,double ftolpl);*/
    double **dnewm,**doldm;
- Line 4107  void varprevlim(char fileres[], double *
+ Line 4993  void varprevlim(char fileres[], double *
    double *xp;
    double *gp, *gm;
    double **gradg, **trgradg;
+   double **mgm, **mgp;
    double age,agelim;
    int theta;
- Line 4129  void varprevlim(char fileres[], double *
+ Line 5016  void varprevlim(char fileres[], double *
      if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;
      nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */
      gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);
+     mgp=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);
+     mgm=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);
      gp=vector(1,nlstate);
      gm=vector(1,nlstate);
- Line 4136  void varprevlim(char fileres[], double *
+ Line 5025  void varprevlim(char fileres[], double *
        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */
          xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
        }
-       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
+       if((int)age==79 ||(int)age== 80 ||(int)age== 81 )
-       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
+         prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ncvyearp,ij);
+       else
+         prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ncvyearp,ij);
+       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++){
          gp[i] = prlim[i][i];
+         mgp[theta][i] = prlim[i][i];
+       }
        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */
          xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
-       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
+       if((int)age==79 ||(int)age== 80 ||(int)age== 81 )
-       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
+         prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ncvyearp,ij);
+       else
+         prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ncvyearp,ij);
+       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++){
          gm[i] = prlim[i][i];
+         mgm[theta][i] = prlim[i][i];
+       }
        for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
          gradg[theta][i]= (gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];
+       /* gradg[theta][2]= -gradg[theta][1]; */ /* For testing if nlstate=2 */
      } /* End theta */
      trgradg =matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
- Line 4155  void varprevlim(char fileres[], double *
+ Line 5053  void varprevlim(char fileres[], double *
      for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
        for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
          trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
+     /* if((int)age==79 ||(int)age== 80 ||(int)age== 81 ){ */
+     /*   printf("\nmgm mgp %d ",(int)age); */
+     /*   for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){ */
+     /*  printf(" %d ",j); */
+     /*  for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++) */
+     /*    printf(" %d %lf %lf",theta,mgm[theta][j],mgp[theta][j]); */
+     /*  printf("\n "); */
+     /*   } */
+     /* } */
+     /* if((int)age==79 ||(int)age== 80 ||(int)age== 81 ){ */
+     /*   printf("\n gradg %d ",(int)age); */
+     /*   for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){ */
+     /*  printf("%d ",j); */
+     /*  for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++) */
+     /*    printf("%d %lf ",theta,gradg[theta][j]); */
+     /*  printf("\n "); */
+     /*   } */
+     /* } */
      for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
        varpl[i][(int)age] =0.;
+     if((int)age==79 ||(int)age== 80  ||(int)age== 81){
      matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
      matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);
+     }else{
+     matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
+     matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);
+     }
      for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
        varpl[i][(int)age] = doldm[i][i]; /* Covariances are useless */
- Line 4169  void varprevlim(char fileres[], double *
+ Line 5090  void varprevlim(char fileres[], double *
      fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
      free_vector(gp,1,nlstate);
      free_vector(gm,1,nlstate);
+     free_matrix(mgm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
+     free_matrix(mgp,1,npar,1,nlstate);
      free_matrix(gradg,1,npar,1,nlstate);
      free_matrix(trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar);
    } /* End age */
- Line 4200  void varprob(char optionfilefiname[], do
+ Line 5123  void varprob(char optionfilefiname[], do
    char fileresprobcor[FILENAMELENGTH];
    double ***varpij;
-   strcpy(fileresprob,"prob");
+   strcpy(fileresprob,"PROB_");
    strcat(fileresprob,fileres);
    if((ficresprob=fopen(fileresprob,"w"))==NULL) {
      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
    }
-   strcpy(fileresprobcov,"probcov");
+   strcpy(fileresprobcov,"PROBCOV_");
-   strcat(fileresprobcov,fileres);
+   strcat(fileresprobcov,fileresu);
    if((ficresprobcov=fopen(fileresprobcov,"w"))==NULL) {
      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
    }
-   strcpy(fileresprobcor,"probcor");
+   strcpy(fileresprobcor,"PROBCOR_");
-   strcat(fileresprobcor,fileres);
+   strcat(fileresprobcor,fileresu);
    if((ficresprobcor=fopen(fileresprobcor,"w"))==NULL) {
      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
- Line 4471  To be simple, these graphs help to under
+ Line 5394  To be simple, these graphs help to under
                      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;set log x; set xlabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\";set ylabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\"",k1,l1,k2,l2);
                      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter svg size 640, 480");
                      fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br>Ellipsoids of confidence cov(p%1d%1d,p%1d%1d) expressed in year<sup>-1</sup>\
-  :<a href=\"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.svg\">\
+  :<a href=\"%s_%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.svg\">\
- %s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.svg</A>, ",k1,l1,k2,l2,\
+ %s_%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.svg</A>, ",k1,l1,k2,l2,\
-                             subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2,\
+                             subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"VARPIJGR_"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2,\
-                             subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
+                             subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"VARPIJGR_"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
-                     fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br><img src=\"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.svg\"> ",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
+                     fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br><img src=\"%s_%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.svg\"> ",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"VARPIJGR_"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
                      fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br> Correlation at age %d (%.3f),",(int) age, c12);
-                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.svg\"",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
+                     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s_%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.svg\"",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"VARPIJGR_"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
                      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu1,mu2);
                      fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k1,l1,k2,l2);
                      fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot [-pi:pi] %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not",\
- Line 4494  To be simple, these graphs help to under
+ Line 5417  To be simple, these graphs help to under
                    }/* if first */
                  } /* age mod 5 */
                } /* end loop age */
-               fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out;\nset out \"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.svg\";replot;set out;",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
+               fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out;\nset out \"%s_%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.svg\";replot;set out;",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"VARPIJGR_"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
                first=1;
              } /*l12 */
            } /* k12 */
- Line 4516  To be simple, these graphs help to under
+ Line 5439  To be simple, these graphs help to under
  /******************* Printing html file ***********/
- void printinghtml(char fileres[], char title[], char datafile[], int firstpass, \
+ void printinghtml(char fileresu[], char title[], char datafile[], int firstpass, \
                    int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[],\
                    int imx,int jmin, int jmax, double jmeanint,char rfileres[],\
-                   int popforecast, int estepm ,\
+                   int popforecast, int prevfcast, int backcast, int estepm , \
-                   double jprev1, double mprev1,double anprev1, \
+                   double jprev1, double mprev1,double anprev1, double dateprev1, \
-                   double jprev2, double mprev2,double anprev2){
+                   double jprev2, double mprev2,double anprev2, double dateprev2){
    int jj1, k1, i1, cpt;
     fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><a href='#firstorder'>Result files (first order: no variance)</a>\n \
     <li><a href='#secondorder'>Result files (second order (variance)</a>\n \
  </ul>");
-    fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><h4><a name='firstorder'>Result files (first order: no variance)</a></h4>\n \
+    fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><h4><a name='firstorder'>Result files (first order: no variance)</a></h4>\n");
-  - Observed prevalence in each state (during the period defined between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n ",
+    fprintf(fichtm,"<li>- Observed frequency between two states (during the period defined between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> (html file)<br/>\n",
-            jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,subdirf2(fileres,"p"),subdirf2(fileres,"p"));
+            jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,subdirfext3(optionfilefiname,"PHTMFR_",".htm"),subdirfext3(optionfilefiname,"PHTMFR_",".htm"));
+    fprintf(fichtm,"<li> - Observed prevalence in each state (during the period defined between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> (html file) ",
+            jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,subdirfext3(optionfilefiname,"PHTM_",".htm"),subdirfext3(optionfilefiname,"PHTM_",".htm"));
+    fprintf(fichtm,",  <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> (text file) <br>\n",subdirf2(fileresu,"P_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"P_"));
     fprintf(fichtm,"\
   - Estimated transition probabilities over %d (stepm) months: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n ",
-            stepm,subdirf2(fileres,"pij"),subdirf2(fileres,"pij"));
+            stepm,subdirf2(fileresu,"PIJ_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"PIJ_"));
+    fprintf(fichtm,"\
+  - Estimated back transition probabilities over %d (stepm) months: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n ",
+            stepm,subdirf2(fileresu,"PIJB_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"PIJB_"));
     fprintf(fichtm,"\
   - Period (stable) prevalence in each health state: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
-            subdirf2(fileres,"pl"),subdirf2(fileres,"pl"));
+            subdirf2(fileresu,"PL_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"PL_"));
     fprintf(fichtm,"\
-  - (a) Life expectancies by health status at initial age, ei. (b) health expectancies by health status at initial age, eij . If one or more covariates are included, specific tables for each value of the covariate are output in sequences within the same file (estepm=%2d months): \
+  - Period (stable) back prevalence in each health state: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
-    <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
+            subdirf2(fileresu,"PLB_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"PLB_"));
-            estepm,subdirf2(fileres,"e"),subdirf2(fileres,"e"));
     fprintf(fichtm,"\
-  - Population projections by age and states: \
+  - (a) Life expectancies by health status at initial age, e<sub>i.</sub> (b) health expectancies by health status at initial age, e<sub>ij</sub> . If one or more covariates are included, specific tables for each value of the covariate are output in sequences within the same file (estepm=%2d months): \
-    <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n</li>", subdirf2(fileres,"f"),subdirf2(fileres,"f"));
+    <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
+            estepm,subdirf2(fileresu,"E_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"E_"));
+    if(prevfcast==1){
+      fprintf(fichtm,"\
+  - Prevalence projections by age and states:                            \
+    <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n</li>", subdirf2(fileresu,"F_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"F_"));
+    }
  fprintf(fichtm," \n<ul><li><b>Graphs</b></li><p>");
- Line 4561  fprintf(fichtm," \n<ul><li><b>Graphs</b>
+ Line 5495  fprintf(fichtm," \n<ul><li><b>Graphs</b>
         }
         fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
       }
+      /* aij, bij */
+      fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Logit model (yours is: 1+age+%s), for example: logit(pij)=log(pij/pii)= aij+ bij age + V1 age + etc. as a function of age: <a href=\"%s_%d-1.svg\">%s_%d-1.svg</a><br> \
+ <img src=\"%s_%d-1.svg\">",model,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PE_"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PE_"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PE_"),jj1);
       /* Pij */
-      fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i, %d (stepm) months before: <a href=\"%s%d_1.svg\">%s%d_1.svg</a><br> \
+      fprintf(fichtm,"<br>\n- P<sub>ij</sub> or conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i, %d (stepm) months before: <a href=\"%s_%d-2.svg\">%s_%d-2.svg</a><br> \
- <img src=\"%s%d_1.svg\">",stepm,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1);
+ <img src=\"%s_%d-2.svg\">",stepm,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PE_"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PE_"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PE_"),jj1);
       /* Quasi-incidences */
-      fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i %d (stepm) months\
+      fprintf(fichtm,"<br>\n- I<sub>ij</sub> or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i %d (stepm) months\
-  before but expressed in per year i.e. quasi incidences if stepm is small and probabilities too: <a href=\"%s%d_2.svg\">%s%d_2.svg</a><br> \
+  before but expressed in per year i.e. quasi incidences if stepm is small and probabilities too,\
- <img src=\"%s%d_2.svg\">",stepm,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1);
+  incidence (rates) are the limit when h tends to zero of the ratio of the probability  <sub>h</sub>P<sub>ij</sub> \
-        /* Period (stable) prevalence in each health state */
+ divided by h: <sub>h</sub>P<sub>ij</sub>/h : <a href=\"%s_%d-3.svg\">%s_%d-3.svg</a><br> \
-        for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++){
+ <img src=\"%s_%d-3.svg\">",stepm,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PE_"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PE_"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PE_"),jj1);
-          fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Convergence to period (stable) prevalence in state %d. Or probability to be in state %d being in state (1 to %d) at different ages. <a href=\"%s%d_%d.svg\">%s%d_%d.svg</a><br> \
+      /* Survival functions (period) in state j */
- <img src=\"%s%d_%d.svg\">", cpt, cpt, nlstate, subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,jj1);
+      for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++){
-        }
+        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>\n- Survival functions in state %d. Or probability to survive in state %d being in state (1 to %d) at different ages. <a href=\"%s%d_%d.svg\">%s%d_%d.svg</a><br> \
+ <img src=\"%s_%d-%d.svg\">", cpt, cpt, nlstate, subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"LIJ_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"LIJ_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"LIJ_"),cpt,jj1);
+      }
+      /* State specific survival functions (period) */
+      for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++){
+        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>\n- Survival functions from state %d in each live state and total.\
+  Or probability to survive in various states (1 to %d) being in state %d at different ages.\
+  <a href=\"%s%d_%d.svg\">%s%d_%d.svg</a><br> <img src=\"%s_%d-%d.svg\">", cpt, nlstate, cpt, subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"LIJT_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"LIJT_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"LIJT_"),cpt,jj1);
+      }
+      /* Period (stable) prevalence in each health state */
+      for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++){
+        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>\n- Convergence to period (stable) prevalence in state %d. Or probability to be in state %d being in state (1 to %d) at different ages. <a href=\"%s_%d-%d.svg\">%s_%d-%d.svg</a><br> \
+ <img src=\"%s_%d-%d.svg\">", cpt, cpt, nlstate, subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"P_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"P_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"P_"),cpt,jj1);
+      }
+     if(backcast==1){
+      /* Period (stable) back prevalence in each health state */
+      for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++){
+        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>\n- Convergence to period (stable) back prevalence in state %d. Or probability to be in state %d being in state (1 to %d) at different ages. <a href=\"%s_%d-%d.svg\">%s_%d-%d.svg</a><br> \
+ <img src=\"%s_%d-%d.svg\">", cpt, cpt, nlstate, subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PB_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PB_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PB_"),cpt,jj1);
+      }
+     }
+     if(prevfcast==1){
+       /* Projection of prevalence up to period (stable) prevalence in each health state */
+       for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++){
+         fprintf(fichtm,"<br>\n- Projection of cross-sectional prevalence (estimated with cases observed from %.1f to %.1f) up to period (stable) prevalence in state %d. Or probability to be in state %d being in state (1 to %d) at different ages. <a href=\"%s%d_%d.svg\">%s%d_%d.svg</a><br> \
+ <img src=\"%s_%d-%d.svg\">", dateprev1, dateprev2, cpt, cpt, nlstate, subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PROJ_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PROJ_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PROJ_"),cpt,jj1);
+       }
+     }
       for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
-         fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Life expectancy by health state (%d) at initial age and its decomposition into health expectancies in each alive state (1 to %d) : <a href=\"%s%d%d.svg\">%s%d%d.svg</a> <br> \
+        fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Life expectancy by health state (%d) at initial age and its decomposition into health expectancies in each alive state (1 to %d) (or area under each survival functions): <a href=\"%s_%d%d.svg\">%s_%d%d.svg</a> <br> \
- <img src=\"%s%d%d.svg\">",cpt,nlstate,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,jj1);
+ <img src=\"%s_%d%d.svg\">",cpt,nlstate,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"EXP_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"EXP_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"EXP_"),cpt,jj1);
       }
     /* } /\* end i1 *\/ */
   }/* End k1 */
- Line 4584  fprintf(fichtm," \n<ul><li><b>Graphs</b>
+ Line 5549  fprintf(fichtm," \n<ul><li><b>Graphs</b>
   fprintf(fichtm,"\
  \n<br><li><h4> <a name='secondorder'>Result files (second order: variances)</a></h4>\n\
   - Parameter file with estimated parameters and covariance matrix: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br> \
-  - 95%% confidence intervals and Wald tests of the estimated parameters are in the log file.<br> \
+  - 95%% confidence intervals and Wald tests of the estimated parameters are in the log file if optimization has been done (mle != 0).<br> \
  But because parameters are usually highly correlated (a higher incidence of disability \
  and a higher incidence of recovery can give very close observed transition) it might \
  be very useful to look not only at linear confidence intervals estimated from the \
- Line 4594  covariance matrix of the one-step probab
+ Line 5559  covariance matrix of the one-step probab
  See page 'Matrix of variance-covariance of one-step probabilities' below. \n", rfileres,rfileres);
   fprintf(fichtm," - Standard deviation of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
-          subdirf2(fileres,"prob"),subdirf2(fileres,"prob"));
+          subdirf2(fileresu,"PROB_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"PROB_"));
   fprintf(fichtm,"\
   - Variance-covariance of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
-          subdirf2(fileres,"probcov"),subdirf2(fileres,"probcov"));
+          subdirf2(fileresu,"PROBCOV_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"PROBCOV_"));
   fprintf(fichtm,"\
   - Correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
-          subdirf2(fileres,"probcor"),subdirf2(fileres,"probcor"));
+          subdirf2(fileresu,"PROBCOR_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"PROBCOR_"));
   fprintf(fichtm,"\
   - Variances and covariances of health expectancies by age and <b>initial health status</b> (cov(e<sup>ij</sup>,e<sup>kl</sup>)(estepm=%2d months): \
     <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n</li>",
-            estepm,subdirf2(fileres,"cve"),subdirf2(fileres,"cve"));
+            estepm,subdirf2(fileresu,"CVE_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"CVE_"));
   fprintf(fichtm,"\
   - (a) Health expectancies by health status at initial age (e<sup>ij</sup>) and standard errors (in parentheses) (b) life expectancies and standard errors (e<sup>i.</sup>=e<sup>i1</sup>+e<sup>i2</sup>+...)(estepm=%2d months): \
     <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n</li>",
-            estepm,subdirf2(fileres,"stde"),subdirf2(fileres,"stde"));
+            estepm,subdirf2(fileresu,"STDE_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"STDE_"));
   fprintf(fichtm,"\
   - Variances and covariances of health expectancies by age. Status (i) based health expectancies (in state j), e<sup>ij</sup> are weighted by the period prevalences in each state i (if popbased=1, an additional computation is done using the cross-sectional prevalences, i.e population based) (estepm=%d months): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n",
-          estepm, subdirf2(fileres,"v"),subdirf2(fileres,"v"));
+          estepm, subdirf2(fileresu,"V_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"V_"));
   fprintf(fichtm,"\
   - Total life expectancy and total health expectancies to be spent in each health state e<sup>.j</sup> with their standard errors (if popbased=1, an additional computation is done using the cross-sectional prevalences, i.e population based) (estepm=%d months): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
-          estepm, subdirf2(fileres,"t"),subdirf2(fileres,"t"));
+          estepm, subdirf2(fileresu,"T_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"T_"));
   fprintf(fichtm,"\
   - Standard deviation of period (stable) prevalences: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",\
-          subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"));
+          subdirf2(fileresu,"VPL_"),subdirf2(fileresu,"VPL_"));
  /*  if(popforecast==1) fprintf(fichtm,"\n */
  /*  - Prevalences forecasting: <a href=\"f%s\">f%s</a> <br>\n */
- Line 4643  See page 'Matrix of variance-covariance
+ Line 5608  See page 'Matrix of variance-covariance
         fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
       }
       for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
-        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Observed (cross-sectional) and period (incidence based) \
+        fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Observed (cross-sectional) and period (incidence based) \
- prevalence (with 95%% confidence interval) in state (%d): %s%d_%d.svg <br>\
+ prevalence (with 95%% confidence interval) in state (%d): <a href=\"%s_%d-%d.svg\"> %s_%d-%d.svg</a>\n <br>\
- <img src=\"%s%d_%d.svg\">",cpt,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,jj1);
+ <img src=\"%s_%d-%d.svg\">",cpt,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"V_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"V_"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"V_"),cpt,jj1);
       }
       fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Total life expectancy by age and \
  health expectancies in states (1) and (2). If popbased=1 the smooth (due to the model) \
  true period expectancies (those weighted with period prevalences are also\
   drawn in addition to the population based expectancies computed using\
-  observed and cahotic prevalences: %s%d.svg<br>\
+  observed and cahotic prevalences:  <a href=\"%s_%d.svg\">%s_%d.svg</a>\n<br>\
- <img src=\"%s%d.svg\">",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),jj1);
+ <img src=\"%s_%d.svg\">",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"E_"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"E_"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"E_"),jj1);
     /* } /\* end i1 *\/ */
   }/* End k1 */
   fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
- Line 4660  true period expectancies (those weighted
+ Line 5625  true period expectancies (those weighted
  }
  /******************* Gnuplot file **************/
- void printinggnuplot(char fileres[], char optionfilefiname[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double fage , char pathc[], double p[]){
+  void printinggnuplot(char fileresu[], char optionfilefiname[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double fage , int prevfcast, int backcast, char pathc[], double p[]){
    char dirfileres[132],optfileres[132];
    int cpt=0,k1=0,i=0,k=0,j=0,jk=0,k2=0,k3=0,ij=0,l=0;
+   int lv=0, vlv=0, kl=0;
    int ng=0;
+   int vpopbased;
  /*   if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"a"))==NULL) { */
  /*     printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot); */
  /*     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot); */
- Line 4675  void printinggnuplot(char fileres[], cha
+ Line 5642  void printinggnuplot(char fileres[], cha
      /*#endif */
    m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
+   /* Contribution to likelihood */
+   /* Plot the probability implied in the likelihood */
+     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Contributions to the Likelihood, mle >=1. For mle=4 no interpolation, pure matrix products.\n#\n");
+     fprintf(ficgp,"\n set log y; unset log x;set xlabel \"Age\"; set ylabel \"Likelihood (-2Log(L))\";");
+     /* fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter svg size 640, 480"); */ /* Too big for svg */
+     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter pngcairo size 640, 480");
+ /* nice for mle=4 plot by number of matrix products.
+    replot  "rrtest1/toto.txt" u 2:($4 == 1 && $5==2 ? $9 : 1/0):5 t "p12" with point lc 1 */
+ /* replot exp(p1+p2*x)/(1+exp(p1+p2*x)+exp(p3+p4*x)+exp(p5+p6*x)) t "p12(x)"  */
+     /* fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s.svg\";",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_")); */
+     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s-dest.png\";",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"));
+     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;plot  \"%s\" u 2:(-$13):6 t \"All sample, transitions colored by destination\" with dots lc variable; set out;\n",subdirf(fileresilk));
+     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s-ori.png\";",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"));
+     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;plot  \"%s\" u 2:(-$13):5 t \"All sample, transitions colored by origin\" with dots lc variable; set out;\n\n",subdirf(fileresilk));
+     for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s-p%dj.png\";set ylabel \"Probability for each individual/wave\";",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_"),i);
+       fprintf(ficgp,"unset log;\n# plot weighted, mean weight should have point size of 0.5\n plot  \"%s\"",subdirf(fileresilk));
+       fprintf(ficgp,"  u  2:($5 == %d && $6==%d ? $10 : 1/0):($12/4.):6 t \"p%d%d\" with points pointtype 7 ps variable lc variable \\\n",i,1,i,1);
+       for (j=2; j<= nlstate+ndeath ; j ++) {
+         fprintf(ficgp,",\\\n \"\" u  2:($5 == %d && $6==%d ? $10 : 1/0):($12/4.):6 t \"p%d%d\" with points pointtype 7 ps variable lc variable ",i,j,i,j);
+       }
+       fprintf(ficgp,";\nset out; unset ylabel;\n");
+     }
+     /* unset log; plot  "rrtest1_sorted_4/ILK_rrtest1_sorted_4.txt" u  2:($4 == 1 && $5==2 ? $9 : 1/0):5 t "p12" with points lc variable */
+     /* fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;plot  \"%s\" u 2:(-$11):3 t \"All sample, all transitions\" with dots lc variable",subdirf(fileresilk)); */
+     /* fprintf(ficgp,"\nreplot  \"%s\" u 2:($3 <= 3 ? -$11 : 1/0):3 t \"First 3 individuals\" with line lc variable", subdirf(fileresilk)); */
+     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out;unset log\n");
+     /* fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s.svg\"; replot; set out; # bug gnuplot",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"ILK_")); */
    strcpy(dirfileres,optionfilefiname);
    strcpy(optfileres,"vpl");
   /* 1eme*/
-   fprintf(ficgp,"\n# 1st: Period (stable) prevalence with CI: 'vpl' files\n");
+   for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) { /* For each live state */
-   for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {
+     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { /* For each combination of covariate */
-     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { /* plot [100000000000000000000:-100000000000000000000] "mysbiaspar/vplrmysbiaspar.txt to check */
+       /* plot [100000000000000000000:-100000000000000000000] "mysbiaspar/vplrmysbiaspar.txt to check */
-      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d_%d.svg\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,k1);
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\n# 1st: Period (stable) prevalence with CI: 'VPL_' files ");
-      fprintf(ficgp,"\n#set out \"v%s%d_%d.svg\" \n",optionfilefiname,cpt,k1);
+       for (k=1; k<=cptcoveff; k++){    /* For each covariate and each value */
+         lv= decodtabm(k1,k,cptcoveff); /* Should be the covariate number corresponding to k1 combination */
+         /* decodtabm(1,1,4) = 1 because h=1  k= (1) 1  1  1 */
+         /* decodtabm(1,2,4) = 1 because h=1  k=  1 (1) 1  1 */
+         /* decodtabm(13,3,4)= 2 because h=13 k=  1  1 (2) 2 */
+         vlv= nbcode[Tvaraff[lv]][lv];
+         fprintf(ficgp," V%d=%d ",k,vlv);
+       }
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n");
+      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s_%d-%d.svg\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"V_"),cpt,k1);
+      fprintf(ficgp,"\n#set out \"V_%s_%d-%d.svg\" \n",optionfilefiname,cpt,k1);
       fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \n\
  set ylabel \"Probability\" \n\
  set ter svg size 640, 480\n\
- plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"%%lf",ageminpar,fage,subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1);
+ plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"%%lf",ageminpar,fage,subdirf2(fileresu,"VPL_"),k1-1,k1-1);
       for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
         if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
         else        fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
       }
-      fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"Period (stable) prevalence\" w l lt 0,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+1.96*$3) \"%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1);
+      fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"Period (stable) prevalence\" w l lt 0,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+1.96*$3) \"%%lf",subdirf2(fileresu,"VPL_"),k1-1,k1-1);
       for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
         if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
         else fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
       }
-      fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"95%% CI\" w l lt 1,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-1.96*$3) \"%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1);
+      fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"95%% CI\" w l lt 1,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-1.96*$3) \"%%lf",subdirf2(fileresu,"VPL_"),k1-1,k1-1);
       for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
         if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
         else fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
       }
-      fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l lt 1,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d) t\"Observed prevalence \" w l lt 2",subdirf2(fileres,"p"),k1-1,k1-1,2+4*(cpt-1));
+      fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l lt 1,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d) t\"Observed prevalence\" w l lt 2",subdirf2(fileresu,"P_"),k1-1,k1-1,2+4*(cpt-1));
-    }
+                  if(backcast==1){
-   }
+                          fprintf(ficgp,",\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d) t\"Backward stable prevalence\" w l lt 3",subdirf2(fileresu,"PLB_"),k1-1,k1-1,1+cpt);
+                  }
+      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \n");
+     } /* k1 */
+   } /* cpt */
    /*2 eme*/
-   fprintf(ficgp,"\n# 2nd: Total life expectancy with CI: 't' files\n");
    for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {
-     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d.svg\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),k1);
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\n# 2nd: Total life expectancy with CI: 't' files ");
-     fprintf(ficgp,"set ylabel \"Years\" \nset ter svg size 640, 480\nplot [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,fage);
+       for (k=1; k<=cptcoveff; k++){    /* For each covariate and each value */
+         lv= decodtabm(k1,k,cptcoveff); /* Should be the covariate number corresponding to k1 combination */
-     for (i=1; i<= nlstate+1 ; i ++) {
+         /* decodtabm(1,1,4) = 1 because h=1  k= (1) 1  1  1 */
-       k=2*i;
+         /* decodtabm(1,2,4) = 1 because h=1  k=  1 (1) 1  1 */
-       fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
+         /* decodtabm(13,3,4)= 2 because h=13 k=  1  1 (2) 2 */
-       for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
+         vlv= nbcode[Tvaraff[lv]][lv];
-         if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
+         fprintf(ficgp," V%d=%d ",k,vlv);
-         else fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
+       }
-       }
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n");
-       if (i== 1) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"TLE\" w l ,");
-       else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"LE in state (%d)\" w l ,",i-1);
+     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s_%d.svg\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"E_"),k1);
-       fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-$3*2) \"%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
+     for(vpopbased=0; vpopbased <= popbased; vpopbased++){ /* Done for vpopbased=0 and vpopbased=1 if popbased==1*/
-       for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
+       if(vpopbased==0)
-         if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
+         fprintf(ficgp,"set ylabel \"Years\" \nset ter svg size 640, 480\nplot [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,fage);
-         else fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
+       else
-       }
+         fprintf(ficgp,"\nreplot ");
-       fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l lt 0,");
+       for (i=1; i<= nlstate+1 ; i ++) {
-       fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+$3*2) \"%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
+         k=2*i;
-       for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
+         fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2==%d && $4!=0 ?$4 : 1/0) \"%%lf %%lf %%lf",subdirf2(fileresu,"T_"),k1-1,k1-1, vpopbased);
-         if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
+         for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
-         else fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
+           if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
-       }
+           else fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
-       if (i== (nlstate+1)) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l lt 0");
+         }
-       else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l lt 0,");
+         if (i== 1) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"TLE\" w l lt %d, \\\n",i);
-     }
+         else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"LE in state (%d)\" w l lt %d, \\\n",i-1,i+1);
-   }
+         fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2==%d && $4!=0 ? $4-$5*2 : 1/0) \"%%lf %%lf %%lf",subdirf2(fileresu,"T_"),k1-1,k1-1,vpopbased);
+         for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
+           if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
+           else fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
+         }
+         fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l lt 0,");
+         fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2==%d && $4!=0 ? $4+$5*2 : 1/0) \"%%lf %%lf %%lf",subdirf2(fileresu,"T_"),k1-1,k1-1,vpopbased);
+         for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
+           if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
+           else fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
+         }
+         if (i== (nlstate+1)) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l lt 0");
+         else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l lt 0,\\\n");
+       } /* state */
+     } /* vpopbased */
+     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out;set out \"%s_%d.svg\"; replot; set out; \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"E_"),k1); /* Buggy gnuplot */
+   } /* k1 */
    /*3eme*/
    for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {
      for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\n# 3d: Life expectancy with EXP_ files:  cov=%d state=%d",k1, cpt);
+       for (k=1; k<=cptcoveff; k++){    /* For each covariate and each value */
+         lv= decodtabm(k1,k,cptcoveff); /* Should be the covariate number corresponding to k1 combination */
+         /* decodtabm(1,1,4) = 1 because h=1  k= (1) 1  1  1 */
+         /* decodtabm(1,2,4) = 1 because h=1  k=  1 (1) 1  1 */
+         /* decodtabm(13,3,4)= 2 because h=13 k=  1  1 (2) 2 */
+         vlv= nbcode[Tvaraff[lv]][lv];
+         fprintf(ficgp," V%d=%d ",k,vlv);
+       }
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n");
        /*       k=2+nlstate*(2*cpt-2); */
        k=2+(nlstate+1)*(cpt-1);
-       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%d.svg\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,k1);
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s_%d%d.svg\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"EXP_"),cpt,k1);
        fprintf(ficgp,"set ter svg size 640, 480\n\
- plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d1\" w l",ageminpar,fage,subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k,cpt);
+ plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d1\" w l",ageminpar,fage,subdirf2(fileresu,"E_"),k1-1,k1-1,k,cpt);
        /*fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d-2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);
          for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");
          fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);
- Line 4754  plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u
+ Line 5791  plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u
        */
        for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {
-         fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k+i,cpt,i+1);
+         fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",subdirf2(fileresu,"E_"),k1-1,k1-1,k+i,cpt,i+1);
          /*      fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k+2*i,cpt,i+1);*/
        }
-       fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d.\" w l",subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k+nlstate,cpt);
+       fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d.\" w l",subdirf2(fileresu,"E_"),k1-1,k1-1,k+nlstate,cpt);
      }
    }
-   /* CV preval stable (period) */
+   /* Survival functions (period) from state i in state j by initial state i */
    for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { /* For each multivariate if any */
      for (cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate ; cpt ++) { /* For each life state */
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n#\n# Survival functions in state j : 'LIJ_' files, cov=%d state=%d",k1, cpt);
+       for (k=1; k<=cptcoveff; k++){    /* For each covariate and each value */
+         lv= decodtabm(k1,k,cptcoveff); /* Should be the covariate number corresponding to k1 combination */
+         /* decodtabm(1,1,4) = 1 because h=1  k= (1) 1  1  1 */
+         /* decodtabm(1,2,4) = 1 because h=1  k=  1 (1) 1  1 */
+         /* decodtabm(13,3,4)= 2 because h=13 k=  1  1 (2) 2 */
+         vlv= nbcode[Tvaraff[lv]][lv];
+         fprintf(ficgp," V%d=%d ",k,vlv);
+       }
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n");
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s_%d-%d.svg\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"LIJ_"),cpt,k1);
+       fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability to be alive\" \n\
+ set ter svg size 640, 480\n\
+ unset log y\n\
+ plot [%.f:%.f]  ", ageminpar, agemaxpar);
        k=3;
-       fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n#\n#CV preval stable (period): 'pij' files, cov=%d state=%d",k1, cpt);
+       for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++){
-       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d_%d.svg\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,k1);
+         if(i==1){
+           fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\"",subdirf2(fileresu,"PIJ_"));
+         }else{
+           fprintf(ficgp,", '' ");
+         }
+         l=(nlstate+ndeath)*(i-1)+1;
+         fprintf(ficgp," u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",k1,k+l+(cpt-1),k+l);
+         for (j=2; j<= nlstate+ndeath ; j ++)
+           fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+l+j-1);
+         fprintf(ficgp,")) t \"l(%d,%d)\" w l",i,cpt);
+       } /* nlstate */
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out\n");
+     } /* end cpt state*/
+   } /* end covariate */
+   /* Survival functions (period) from state i in state j by final state j */
+   for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { /* For each covariate if any */
+     for (cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate ; cpt ++) { /* For each inital state  */
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n#\n# Survival functions in state j and all livestates from state i by final state j: 'lij' files, cov=%d state=%d",k1, cpt);
+       for (k=1; k<=cptcoveff; k++){    /* For each covariate and each value */
+         lv= decodtabm(k1,k,cptcoveff); /* Should be the covariate number corresponding to k1 combination */
+         /* decodtabm(1,1,4) = 1 because h=1  k= (1) 1  1  1 */
+         /* decodtabm(1,2,4) = 1 because h=1  k=  1 (1) 1  1 */
+         /* decodtabm(13,3,4)= 2 because h=13 k=  1  1 (2) 2 */
+         vlv= nbcode[Tvaraff[lv]][lv];
+         fprintf(ficgp," V%d=%d ",k,vlv);
+       }
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n");
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s_%d-%d.svg\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"LIJT_"),cpt,k1);
+       fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability to be alive\" \n\
+ set ter svg size 640, 480\n\
+ unset log y\n\
+ plot [%.f:%.f]  ", ageminpar, agemaxpar);
+       k=3;
+       for (j=1; j<= nlstate ; j ++){ /* Lived in state j */
+         if(j==1)
+           fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\"",subdirf2(fileresu,"PIJ_"));
+         else
+           fprintf(ficgp,", '' ");
+         l=(nlstate+ndeath)*(cpt-1) +j;
+         fprintf(ficgp," u (($1==%d && (floor($2)%%5 == 0)) ? ($3):1/0):($%d",k1,k+l);
+         /* for (i=2; i<= nlstate+ndeath ; i ++) */
+         /*   fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+l+i-1); */
+         fprintf(ficgp,") t \"l(%d,%d)\" w l",cpt,j);
+       } /* nlstate */
+       fprintf(ficgp,", '' ");
+       fprintf(ficgp," u (($1==%d && (floor($2)%%5 == 0)) ? ($3):1/0):(",k1);
+       for (j=1; j<= nlstate ; j ++){ /* Lived in state j */
+         l=(nlstate+ndeath)*(cpt-1) +j;
+         if(j < nlstate)
+           fprintf(ficgp,"$%d +",k+l);
+         else
+           fprintf(ficgp,"$%d) t\"l(%d,.)\" w l",k+l,cpt);
+       }
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out\n");
+     } /* end cpt state*/
+   } /* end covariate */
+   /* CV preval stable (period) for each covariate */
+   for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { /* For each covariate combination (1 to m=2**k), if any covariate is present */
+     for (cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate ; cpt ++) { /* For each life state */
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n#\n#CV preval stable (period): 'pij' files, covariatecombination#=%d state=%d",k1, cpt);
+       for (k=1; k<=cptcoveff; k++){    /* For each covariate and each value */
+         lv= decodtabm(k1,k,cptcoveff); /* Should be the covariate number corresponding to k1 combination */
+         /* decodtabm(1,1,4) = 1 because h=1  k= (1) 1  1  1 */
+         /* decodtabm(1,2,4) = 1 because h=1  k=  1 (1) 1  1 */
+         /* decodtabm(13,3,4)= 2 because h=13 k=  1  1 (2) 2 */
+         vlv= nbcode[Tvaraff[lv]][lv];
+         fprintf(ficgp," V%d=%d ",k,vlv);
+       }
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n");
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s_%d-%d.svg\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"P_"),cpt,k1);
        fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \n\
  set ter svg size 640, 480\n\
  unset log y\n\
  plot [%.f:%.f]  ", ageminpar, agemaxpar);
+       k=3; /* Offset */
        for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++){
          if(i==1)
-           fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\"",subdirf2(fileres,"pij"));
+           fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\"",subdirf2(fileresu,"PIJ_"));
          else
            fprintf(ficgp,", '' ");
          l=(nlstate+ndeath)*(i-1)+1;
          fprintf(ficgp," u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",k1,k+l+(cpt-1),k+l);
-         for (j=1; j<= (nlstate-1) ; j ++)
+         for (j=2; j<= nlstate ; j ++)
-           fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+l+j);
+           fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+l+j-1);
          fprintf(ficgp,")) t \"prev(%d,%d)\" w l",i,cpt);
        } /* nlstate */
-       fprintf(ficgp,"\n");
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out\n");
      } /* end cpt state*/
    } /* end covariate */
+   if(backcast == 1){
+     /* CV back preval stable (period) for each covariate */
+     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { /* For each covariate combination (1 to m=2**k), if any covariate is present */
+       for (cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate ; cpt ++) { /* For each life state */
+         fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n#\n#CV Back preval stable (period): 'pij' files, covariatecombination#=%d state=%d",k1, cpt);
+         for (k=1; k<=cptcoveff; k++){    /* For each covariate and each value */
+           lv= decodtabm(k1,k,cptcoveff); /* Should be the covariate number corresponding to k1 combination */
+           /* decodtabm(1,1,4) = 1 because h=1  k= (1) 1  1  1 */
+           /* decodtabm(1,2,4) = 1 because h=1  k=  1 (1) 1  1 */
+           /* decodtabm(13,3,4)= 2 because h=13 k=  1  1 (2) 2 */
+           vlv= nbcode[Tvaraff[lv]][lv];
+           fprintf(ficgp," V%d=%d ",k,vlv);
+         }
+         fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n");
+         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s_%d-%d.svg\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PB_"),cpt,k1);
+         fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \n\
+ set ter svg size 640, 480\n                                             \
+ unset log y\n                                                           \
+ plot [%.f:%.f]  ", ageminpar, agemaxpar);
+         k=3; /* Offset */
+         for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++){
+           if(i==1)
+             fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\"",subdirf2(fileresu,"PIJB_"));
+           else
+             fprintf(ficgp,", '' ");
+           /* l=(nlstate+ndeath)*(i-1)+1; */
+           l=(nlstate+ndeath)*(cpt-1)+1;
+           /* fprintf(ficgp," u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",k1,k+l+(cpt-1),k+l); /\* a vérifier *\/ */
+           /* fprintf(ficgp," u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",k1,k+l+(cpt-1),k+l+(cpt-1)+i-1); /\* a vérifier *\/ */
+           fprintf(ficgp," u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d",k1,k+l+(cpt-1)+i-1); /* a vérifier */
+           /* for (j=2; j<= nlstate ; j ++) */
+           /*    fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+l+j-1); */
+           /*    /\* fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+l+j-1); *\/ */
+           fprintf(ficgp,") t \"bprev(%d,%d)\" w l",i,cpt);
+         } /* nlstate */
+         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out\n");
+       } /* end cpt state*/
+     } /* end covariate */
+   } /* End if backcast */
+   if(prevfcast==1){
+     /* Projection from cross-sectional to stable (period) for each covariate */
+     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { /* For each covariate combination (1 to m=2**k), if any covariate is present */
+       for (cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate ; cpt ++) { /* For each life state */
+         fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n#\n#Projection of prevalence to stable (period): 'PROJ_' files, covariatecombination#=%d state=%d",k1, cpt);
+         for (k=1; k<=cptcoveff; k++){    /* For each correspondig covariate value  */
+           lv= decodtabm(k1,k,cptcoveff); /* Should be the covariate value corresponding to k1 combination and kth covariate */
+           /* decodtabm(1,1,4) = 1 because h=1  k= (1) 1  1  1 */
+           /* decodtabm(1,2,4) = 1 because h=1  k=  1 (1) 1  1 */
+           /* decodtabm(13,3,4)= 2 because h=13 k=  1  1 (2) 2 */
+           vlv= nbcode[Tvaraff[lv]][lv];
+           fprintf(ficgp," V%d=%d ",k,vlv);
+         }
+         fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n");
+         fprintf(ficgp,"# hpijx=probability over h years, hp.jx is weighted by observed prev\n ");
+         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s_%d-%d.svg\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PROJ_"),cpt,k1);
+         fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Prevalence\" \n\
+ set ter svg size 640, 480\n\
+ unset log y\n\
+ plot [%.f:%.f]  ", ageminpar, agemaxpar);
+         for (i=1; i<= nlstate+1 ; i ++){  /* nlstate +1 p11 p21 p.1 */
+           /*#  V1  = 1  V2 =  0 yearproj age p11 p21 p.1 p12 p22 p.2 p13 p23 p.3*/
+           /*#   1    2   3    4    5      6  7   8   9   10   11 12  13   14  15 */
+           /*# yearproj age p11 p21 p.1 p12 p22 p.2 p13 p23 p.3*/
+           /*#   1       2   3    4    5      6  7   8   9   10   11 12  13   14  15 */
+           if(i==1){
+             fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\"",subdirf2(fileresu,"F_"));
+           }else{
+             fprintf(ficgp,",\\\n '' ");
+           }
+           if(cptcoveff ==0){ /* No covariate */
+             fprintf(ficgp," u 2:("); /* Age is in 2 */
+             /*# yearproj age p11 p21 p31 p.1 p12 p22 p32 p.2 p13 p23 p33 p.3 p14 p24 p34 p.4*/
+             /*#   1       2   3   4   5  6    7  8   9   10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18 */
+             if(i==nlstate+1)
+               fprintf(ficgp," $%d/(1.-$%d)) t 'p.%d' with line ", \
++(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1),  2+1+(i-1)+(nlstate+1)*nlstate,cpt );
+             else
+               fprintf(ficgp," $%d/(1.-$%d)) t 'p%d%d' with line ", \
++(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1),  2+1+(i-1)+(nlstate+1)*nlstate,i,cpt );
+           }else{
+             fprintf(ficgp,"u 6:(("); /* Age is in 6 */
+             /*#  V1  = 1  V2 =  0 yearproj age p11 p21 p.1 p12 p22 p.2 p13 p23 p.3*/
+             /*#   1    2   3    4    5      6  7   8   9   10   11 12  13   14  15 */
+             kl=0;
+             for (k=1; k<=cptcoveff; k++){    /* For each covariate  */
+               lv= decodtabm(k1,k,cptcoveff); /* Should be the covariate value corresponding to k1 combination and kth covariate */
+               /* decodtabm(1,1,4) = 1 because h=1  k= (1) 1  1  1 */
+               /* decodtabm(1,2,4) = 1 because h=1  k=  1 (1) 1  1 */
+               /* decodtabm(13,3,4)= 2 because h=13 k=  1  1 (2) 2 */
+               vlv= nbcode[Tvaraff[lv]][lv];
+               kl++;
+               /* kl=6+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1); /\* 6+(1-1)*(2+1)+1+(1-1)=7, 6+(2-1)(2+1)+1+(1-1)=10 *\/ */
+               /*6+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1)+(nlstate+1)*nlstate; 6+(1-1)*(2+1)+1+(1-1) +(2+1)*2=13 */
+               /*6+1+(i-1)+(nlstate+1)*nlstate; 6+1+(1-1) +(2+1)*2=13 */
+               /* ''  u 6:(($1==1 && $2==0 && $3==2 && $4==0)? $9/(1.-$15) : 1/0):($5==2000? 3:2) t 'p.1' with line lc variable*/
+               if(k==cptcoveff)
+                 if(i==nlstate+1)
+                   fprintf(ficgp,"$%d==%d && $%d==%d)? $%d/(1.-$%d) : 1/0) t 'p.%d' with line ",kl, k,kl+1,nbcode[Tvaraff[lv]][lv], \
++(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1),  6+1+(i-1)+(nlstate+1)*nlstate,cpt );
+                 else
+                   fprintf(ficgp,"$%d==%d && $%d==%d)? $%d/(1.-$%d) : 1/0) t 'p%d%d' with line ",kl, k,kl+1,nbcode[Tvaraff[lv]][lv], \
++(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1),  6+1+(i-1)+(nlstate+1)*nlstate,i,cpt );
+               else{
+                 fprintf(ficgp,"$%d==%d && $%d==%d && ",kl, k,kl+1,nbcode[Tvaraff[lv]][lv]);
+                 kl++;
+               }
+             } /* end covariate */
+           } /* end if covariate */
+         } /* nlstate */
+         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out\n");
+       } /* end cpt state*/
+     } /* end covariate */
+   } /* End if prevfcast */
    /* proba elementaires */
    fprintf(ficgp,"\n##############\n#MLE estimated parameters\n#############\n");
    for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
- Line 4819  plot [%.f:%.f]  ", ageminpar, agemaxpar)
+ Line 6064  plot [%.f:%.f]  ", ageminpar, agemaxpar)
    fprintf(ficgp,"#       +exp(a13+b13*age+c13age*age+d13*V1+e13*V1*age))\n");
    fprintf(ficgp,"#       +exp(a14+b14*age+c14age*age+d14*V1+e14*V1*age)+...)\n");
    fprintf(ficgp,"#\n");
-    for(ng=1; ng<=2;ng++){ /* Number of graphics: first is probabilities second is incidence per year*/
+    for(ng=1; ng<=3;ng++){ /* Number of graphics: first is logit, 2nd is probabilities, third is incidences per year*/
       fprintf(ficgp,"# ng=%d\n",ng);
       fprintf(ficgp,"#   jk=1 to 2^%d=%d\n",cptcoveff,m);
       for(jk=1; jk <=m; jk++) {
         fprintf(ficgp,"#    jk=%d\n",jk);
-        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d_%d.svg\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jk,ng);
+        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s_%d-%d.svg\" ",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PE_"),jk,ng);
-        if (ng==2)
+        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter svg size 640, 480 ");
+        if (ng==1){
+          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ylabel \"Value of the logit of the model\"\n"); /* exp(a12+b12*x) could be nice */
+          fprintf(ficgp,"\nunset log y");
+        }else if (ng==2){
+          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ylabel \"Probability\"\n");
+          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y");
+        }else if (ng==3){
           fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ylabel \"Quasi-incidence per year\"\n");
-        else
+          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y");
-          fprintf(ficgp,"\nunset title \n");
+        }else
-        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter svg size 640, 480\nset log y\nplot  [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,agemaxpar);
+          fprintf(ficgp,"\nunset title ");
+        fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot  [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,agemaxpar);
         i=1;
         for(k2=1; k2<=nlstate; k2++) {
           k3=i;
           for(k=1; k<=(nlstate+ndeath); k++) {
             if (k != k2){
-              if(ng==2)
+              switch( ng) {
+              case 1:
                 if(nagesqr==0)
-                  fprintf(ficgp," %f*exp(p%d+p%d*x",YEARM/stepm,i,i+1);
+                  fprintf(ficgp," p%d+p%d*x",i,i+1);
                 else /* nagesqr =1 */
-                  fprintf(ficgp," %f*exp(p%d+p%d*x+p%d*x*x",YEARM/stepm,i,i+1,i+1+nagesqr);
+                  fprintf(ficgp," p%d+p%d*x+p%d*x*x",i,i+1,i+1+nagesqr);
-              else
+                break;
+              case 2: /* ng=2 */
                 if(nagesqr==0)
                   fprintf(ficgp," exp(p%d+p%d*x",i,i+1);
                 else /* nagesqr =1 */
-                  fprintf(ficgp," exp(p%d+p%d*x+p%d*x*x",i,i+1,i+1+nagesqr);
+                    fprintf(ficgp," exp(p%d+p%d*x+p%d*x*x",i,i+1,i+1+nagesqr);
+                break;
+              case 3:
+                if(nagesqr==0)
+                  fprintf(ficgp," %f*exp(p%d+p%d*x",YEARM/stepm,i,i+1);
+                else /* nagesqr =1 */
+                  fprintf(ficgp," %f*exp(p%d+p%d*x+p%d*x*x",YEARM/stepm,i,i+1,i+1+nagesqr);
+                break;
+              }
               ij=1;/* To be checked else nbcode[0][0] wrong */
               for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel-nagesqr; j++) {
                 /* printf("Tage[%d]=%d, j=%d\n", ij, Tage[ij], j); */
- Line 4858  plot [%.f:%.f]  ", ageminpar, agemaxpar)
+ Line 6121  plot [%.f:%.f]  ", ageminpar, agemaxpar)
                 else
                   fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",i+j+nagesqr-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(jk,j-2)]);
               }
+            }else{
+              i=i-ncovmodel;
+              if(ng !=1 ) /* For logit formula of log p11 is more difficult to get */
+                fprintf(ficgp," (1.");
+            }
+            if(ng != 1){
               fprintf(ficgp,")/(1");
               for(k1=1; k1 <=nlstate; k1++){
- Line 4865  plot [%.f:%.f]  ", ageminpar, agemaxpar)
+ Line 6135  plot [%.f:%.f]  ", ageminpar, agemaxpar)
                   fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1);
                 else /* nagesqr =1 */
                   fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x+p%d*x*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+nagesqr);
                 ij=1;
                 for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel-nagesqr; j++){
                   if(ij <=cptcovage) { /* Bug valgrind */
- Line 4880  plot [%.f:%.f]  ", ageminpar, agemaxpar)
+ Line 6150  plot [%.f:%.f]  ", ageminpar, agemaxpar)
                 }
                 fprintf(ficgp,")");
               }
-              fprintf(ficgp,") t \"p%d%d\" ", k2,k);
+              fprintf(ficgp,")");
-              if ((k+k2)!= (nlstate*2+ndeath)) fprintf(ficgp,",");
+              if(ng ==2)
-              i=i+ncovmodel;
+                fprintf(ficgp," t \"p%d%d\" ", k2,k);
+              else /* ng= 3 */
+                fprintf(ficgp," t \"i%d%d\" ", k2,k);
+            }else{ /* end ng <> 1 */
+              if( k !=k2) /* logit p11 is hard to draw */
+                fprintf(ficgp," t \"logit(p%d%d)\" ", k2,k);
             }
+            if ((k+k2)!= (nlstate*2+ndeath) && ng != 1)
+              fprintf(ficgp,",");
+            if (ng == 1 && k!=k2 && (k+k2)!= (nlstate*2+ndeath))
+              fprintf(ficgp,",");
+            i=i+ncovmodel;
           } /* end k */
         } /* end k2 */
+        fprintf(ficgp,"\n set out\n");
       } /* end jk */
     } /* end ng */
   /* avoid: */
- Line 4894  plot [%.f:%.f]  ", ageminpar, agemaxpar)
+ Line 6175  plot [%.f:%.f]  ", ageminpar, agemaxpar)
  /*************** Moving average **************/
- int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav){
+                 /* int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage, double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav, double bageout, double fageout){ */
+ int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage, double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav){
    int i, cpt, cptcod;
    int modcovmax =1;
    int mobilavrange, mob;
    double age;
+   int iage=0;
+   double *sumnewp, *sumnewm;
+   double *agemingood, *agemaxgood; /* Currently identical for all covariates */
+   sumnewp = vector(1,modcovmax);
+   sumnewm = vector(1,modcovmax);
+   agemingood = vector(1,modcovmax);
+   agemaxgood = vector(1,modcovmax);
    modcovmax=2*cptcoveff;/* Max number of modalities. We suppose
-                            a covariate has 2 modalities */
+                            a covariate has 2 modalities, should be equal to ncovcombmax  */
    if (cptcovn<1) modcovmax=1; /* At least 1 pass */
    if(mobilav==1||mobilav ==3 ||mobilav==5 ||mobilav== 7){
      if(mobilav==1) mobilavrange=5; /* default */
      else mobilavrange=mobilav;
- Line 4921  int movingaverage(double ***probs, doubl
+ Line 6212  int movingaverage(double ***probs, doubl
          for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
            for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=modcovmax;cptcod++){
              mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] =probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
-               for (cpt=1;cpt<=(mob-1)/2;cpt++){
+             for (cpt=1;cpt<=(mob-1)/2;cpt++){
-                 mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age-cpt][i][cptcod];
+               mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age-cpt][i][cptcod];
-                 mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age+cpt][i][cptcod];
+               mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age+cpt][i][cptcod];
-               }
+             }
              mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]/mob;
            }
          }
        }/* end age */
      }/* end mob */
-   }else return -1;
+   }else
+     return -1;
+   for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=modcovmax;cptcod++){
+     /* for (age=bage+(mob-1)/2; age<=fage-(mob-1)/2; age++){ */
+     agemingood[cptcod]=fage+(mob-1)/2;
+     for (age=fage-(mob-1)/2; age>=bage; age--){/* From oldest to youngest, finding the youngest wrong */
+       sumnewm[cptcod]=0.;
+       for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+         sumnewm[cptcod]+=mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod];
+       }
+       if(fabs(sumnewm[cptcod] - 1.) <= 1.e-3) { /* good */
+         agemingood[cptcod]=age;
+       }else{ /* bad */
+         for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+           mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)agemingood[cptcod]][i][cptcod];
+         } /* i */
+       } /* end bad */
+     }/* age */
+     /* From youngest, finding the oldest wrong */
+     agemaxgood[cptcod]=bage+(mob-1)/2;
+     for (age=bage+(mob-1)/2; age<=fage; age++){
+       sumnewm[cptcod]=0.;
+       for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+         sumnewm[cptcod]+=mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod];
+       }
+       if(fabs(sumnewm[cptcod] - 1.) <= 1.e-3) { /* good */
+         agemaxgood[cptcod]=age;
+       }else{ /* bad */
+         for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+           mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)agemaxgood[cptcod]][i][cptcod];
+         } /* i */
+       } /* end bad */
+     }/* age */
+     for (age=bage; age<=fage; age++){
+       printf("%d %d ", cptcod, (int)age);
+       sumnewp[cptcod]=0.;
+       sumnewm[cptcod]=0.;
+       for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+         sumnewp[cptcod]+=probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
+         sumnewm[cptcod]+=mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod];
+         printf("%.4f %.4f ",probs[(int)age][i][cptcod], mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]);
+       }
+       printf("%.4f %.4f \n",sumnewp[cptcod], sumnewm[cptcod]);
+     }
+     printf("\n");
+     /* brutal averaging */
+     for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+       for (age=1; age<=bage; age++){
+         mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)agemingood[cptcod]][i][cptcod];
+         printf("age=%d i=%d cptcod=%d mobaverage=%.4f \n",(int)age,i, cptcod, mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]);
+       }
+       for (age=fage; age<=AGESUP; age++){
+         mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)agemaxgood[cptcod]][i][cptcod];
+         printf("age=%d i=%d cptcod=%d mobaverage=%.4f \n",(int)age,i, cptcod, mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]);
+       }
+     } /* end i status */
+     for (i=nlstate+1; i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++){
+       for (age=1; age<=AGESUP; age++){
+         /*printf("i=%d, age=%d, cptcod=%d\n",i, (int)age, cptcod);*/
+         mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=0.;
+       }
+     }
+   }/* end cptcod */
+   free_vector(sumnewm,1, modcovmax);
+   free_vector(sumnewp,1, modcovmax);
+   free_vector(agemaxgood,1, modcovmax);
+   free_vector(agemingood,1, modcovmax);
    return 0;
  }/* End movingaverage */
  /************** Forecasting ******************/
  void prevforecast(char fileres[], double anproj1, double mproj1, double jproj1, double ageminpar, double agemax, double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double bage, double fage, int firstpass, int lastpass, double anproj2, double p[], int cptcoveff){
- Line 4947  void prevforecast(char fileres[], double
+ Line 6304  void prevforecast(char fileres[], double
    double agelim, ppij, yp,yp1,yp2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean;
    double *popeffectif,*popcount;
    double ***p3mat;
-   double ***mobaverage;
+   /* double ***mobaverage; */
    char fileresf[FILENAMELENGTH];
    agelim=AGESUP;
-   prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
+   /* Compute observed prevalence between dateprev1 and dateprev2 by counting the number of people
+      in each health status at the date of interview (if between dateprev1 and dateprev2).
+      We still use firstpass and lastpass as another selection.
+   */
+   /* freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,strstart,\ */
+   /*          firstpass, lastpass,  stepm,  weightopt, model); */
-   strcpy(fileresf,"f");
+   strcpy(fileresf,"F_");
-   strcat(fileresf,fileres);
+   strcat(fileresf,fileresu);
    if((ficresf=fopen(fileresf,"w"))==NULL) {
      printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);
      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);
    }
-   printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);
+   printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s', please wait... \n", fileresf);
-   fprintf(ficlog,"Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);
+   fprintf(ficlog,"Computing forecasting: result on file '%s', please wait... \n", fileresf);
    if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
-   if (mobilav!=0) {
-     mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
-     if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
-       fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
-       printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
-     }
-   }
    stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
    if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;
- Line 5001  void prevforecast(char fileres[], double
+ Line 6356  void prevforecast(char fileres[], double
    for(cptcov=1, k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
      for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){
        k=k+1;
-       fprintf(ficresf,"\n#******");
+       fprintf(ficresf,"\n#****** hpijx=probability over h years, hp.jx is weighted by observed prev \n#");
        for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
-         fprintf(ficresf," V%d=%d, hpijx=probability over h years, hp.jx is weighted by observed prev ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+         fprintf(ficresf," V%d (=) %d",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
        }
-       fprintf(ficresf,"******\n");
+       fprintf(ficresf," yearproj age");
-       fprintf(ficresf,"# Covariate valuofcovar yearproj age");
        for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
          for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
            fprintf(ficresf," p%d%d",i,j);
          fprintf(ficresf," p.%d",j);
        }
        for (yearp=0; yearp<=(anproj2-anproj1);yearp +=stepsize) {
          fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
          fprintf(ficresf,"\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1+yearp);
          for (agec=fage; agec>=(ageminpar-1); agec--){
            nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agec)*YEARM/stepm);
            nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;
            p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
            oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
            hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agec,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);
            for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
              if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm ==yearp) {
- Line 5053  void prevforecast(char fileres[], double
+ Line 6406  void prevforecast(char fileres[], double
      } /* end cptcod */
    } /* end  cptcov */
-   if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
    fclose(ficresf);
+   printf("End of Computing forecasting \n");
+   fprintf(ficlog,"End of Computing forecasting\n");
  }
+ /* /\************** Back Forecasting ******************\/ */
+ /* void prevbackforecast(char fileres[], double anback1, double mback1, double jback1, double ageminpar, double agemax, double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double bage, double fage, int firstpass, int lastpass, double anback2, double p[], int cptcoveff){ */
+ /*   /\* back1, year, month, day of starting backection  */
+ /*      agemin, agemax range of age */
+ /*      dateprev1 dateprev2 range of dates during which prevalence is computed */
+ /*      anback2 year of en of backection (same day and month as back1). */
+ /*   *\/ */
+ /*   int yearp, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j, k, cptcod, i, h, i1; */
+ /*   double agec; /\* generic age *\/ */
+ /*   double agelim, ppij, yp,yp1,yp2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean; */
+ /*   double *popeffectif,*popcount; */
+ /*   double ***p3mat; */
+ /*   /\* double ***mobaverage; *\/ */
+ /*   char fileresfb[FILENAMELENGTH]; */
+ /*   agelim=AGESUP; */
+ /*   /\* Compute observed prevalence between dateprev1 and dateprev2 by counting the number of people */
+ /*      in each health status at the date of interview (if between dateprev1 and dateprev2). */
+ /*      We still use firstpass and lastpass as another selection. */
+ /*   *\/ */
+ /*   /\* freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,strstart,\ *\/ */
+ /*   /\*              firstpass, lastpass,  stepm,  weightopt, model); *\/ */
+ /*   prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass); */
+ /*   strcpy(fileresfb,"FB_");  */
+ /*   strcat(fileresfb,fileresu); */
+ /*   if((ficresfb=fopen(fileresfb,"w"))==NULL) { */
+ /*     printf("Problem with back forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresfb); */
+ /*     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with back forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresfb); */
+ /*   } */
+ /*   printf("Computing back forecasting: result on file '%s', please wait... \n", fileresfb); */
+ /*   fprintf(ficlog,"Computing back forecasting: result on file '%s', please wait... \n", fileresfb); */
+ /*   if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1; */
+ /*   /\* if (mobilav!=0) { *\/ */
+ /*   /\*   mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX); *\/ */
+ /*   /\*   if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){ *\/ */
+ /*   /\*     fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav); *\/ */
+ /*   /\*     printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav); *\/ */
+ /*   /\*   } *\/ */
+ /*   /\* } *\/ */
+ /*   stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM; */
+ /*   if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1; */
+ /*   if(estepm < stepm){ */
+ /*     printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm); */
+ /*   } */
+ /*   else  hstepm=estepm;    */
+ /*   hstepm=hstepm/stepm;  */
+ /*   yp1=modf(dateintmean,&yp);/\* extracts integral of datemean in yp  and */
+ /*                                fractional in yp1 *\/ */
+ /*   anprojmean=yp; */
+ /*   yp2=modf((yp1*12),&yp); */
+ /*   mprojmean=yp; */
+ /*   yp1=modf((yp2*30.5),&yp); */
+ /*   jprojmean=yp; */
+ /*   if(jprojmean==0) jprojmean=1; */
+ /*   if(mprojmean==0) jprojmean=1; */
+ /*   i1=cptcoveff; */
+ /*   if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;} */
+ /*   fprintf(ficresfb,"# Mean day of interviews %.lf/%.lf/%.lf (%.2f) between %.2f and %.2f \n",jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean,dateintmean,dateprev1,dateprev2);  */
+ /*   fprintf(ficresfb,"#****** Routine prevbackforecast **\n"); */
+ /*      /\*           if (h==(int)(YEARM*yearp)){ *\/ */
+ /*   for(cptcov=1, k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){ */
+ /*     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){ */
+ /*       k=k+1; */
+ /*       fprintf(ficresfb,"\n#****** hbijx=probability over h years, hp.jx is weighted by observed prev \n#"); */
+ /*       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) { */
+ /*                              fprintf(ficresfb," V%d (=) %d",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]); */
+ /*       } */
+ /*       fprintf(ficresfb," yearbproj age"); */
+ /*       for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){  */
+ /*                              for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)               */
+ /*           fprintf(ficresfb," p%d%d",i,j); */
+ /*                              fprintf(ficresfb," p.%d",j); */
+ /*       } */
+ /*       for (yearp=0; yearp>=(anback2-anback1);yearp -=stepsize) {  */
+ /*                              /\* for (yearp=0; yearp<=(anproj2-anproj1);yearp +=stepsize) {  *\/ */
+ /*                              fprintf(ficresfb,"\n"); */
+ /*                              fprintf(ficresfb,"\n# Back Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jback1,mback1,anback1+yearp);    */
+ /*                              for (agec=fage; agec>=(ageminpar-1); agec--){  */
+ /*                                      nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agec)*YEARM/stepm);  */
+ /*                                      nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;  */
+ /*                                      p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm); */
+ /*                                      oldm=oldms;savm=savms; */
+ /*                                      hbxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agec,hstepm,p,prevacurrent,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm,oldm,savm, dnewm, doldm, dsavm, k);       */
+ /*                                      for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){ */
+ /*                                              if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm ==yearp) { */
+ /*               fprintf(ficresfb,"\n"); */
+ /*               for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)  */
+ /*                 fprintf(ficresfb,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]); */
+ /*                                                      fprintf(ficresfb,"%.f %.f ",anback1+yearp,agec+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm); */
+ /*                                              }  */
+ /*                                              for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) { */
+ /*                                                      ppij=0.; */
+ /*                                                      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) { */
+ /*                                                              if (mobilav==1)  */
+ /*                                                                      ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agec][i][cptcod]; */
+ /*                                                              else { */
+ /*                                                                      ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agec)][i][cptcod]; */
+ /*                                                              } */
+ /*                                                              if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm== yearp) { */
+ /*                                                                      fprintf(ficresfb," %.3f", p3mat[i][j][h]); */
+ /*                                                              } */
+ /*                                                      } /\* end i *\/ */
+ /*                                                      if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm==yearp) { */
+ /*                                                              fprintf(ficresfb," %.3f", ppij); */
+ /*                                                      } */
+ /*                                              }/\* end j *\/ */
+ /*                                      } /\* end h *\/ */
+ /*                                      free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm); */
+ /*                              } /\* end agec *\/ */
+ /*       } /\* end yearp *\/ */
+ /*     } /\* end cptcod *\/ */
+ /*   } /\* end  cptcov *\/ */
+ /*   /\* if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX); *\/ */
+ /*   fclose(ficresfb); */
+ /*   printf("End of Computing Back forecasting \n"); */
+ /*   fprintf(ficlog,"End of Computing Back forecasting\n"); */
+ /* } */
  /************** Forecasting *****not tested NB*************/
  void populforecast(char fileres[], double anpyram,double mpyram,double jpyram,double ageminpar, double agemax,double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double agedeb, double fage, int popforecast, char popfile[], double anpyram1,double p[], int i2){
- Line 5066  void populforecast(char fileres[], doubl
+ Line 6550  void populforecast(char fileres[], doubl
    double calagedatem, agelim, kk1, kk2;
    double *popeffectif,*popcount;
    double ***p3mat,***tabpop,***tabpopprev;
-   double ***mobaverage;
+   /* double ***mobaverage; */
    char filerespop[FILENAMELENGTH];
    tabpop= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
- Line 5077  void populforecast(char fileres[], doubl
+ Line 6561  void populforecast(char fileres[], doubl
    prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
-   strcpy(filerespop,"pop");
+   strcpy(filerespop,"POP_");
-   strcat(filerespop,fileres);
+   strcat(filerespop,fileresu);
    if((ficrespop=fopen(filerespop,"w"))==NULL) {
      printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", filerespop);
      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", filerespop);
- Line 5088  void populforecast(char fileres[], doubl
+ Line 6572  void populforecast(char fileres[], doubl
    if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
-   if (mobilav!=0) {
+   /* if (mobilav!=0) { */
-     mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+   /*   mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX); */
-     if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
+   /*   if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){ */
-       fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
+   /*     fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav); */
-       printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
+   /*     printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav); */
-     }
+   /*   } */
-   }
+   /* } */
    stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
    if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;
- Line 5103  void populforecast(char fileres[], doubl
+ Line 6587  void populforecast(char fileres[], doubl
    hstepm=1;
    hstepm=hstepm/stepm;
    if (popforecast==1) {
      if((ficpop=fopen(popfile,"r"))==NULL) {
        printf("Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);exit(0);
- Line 5115  void populforecast(char fileres[], doubl
+ Line 6599  void populforecast(char fileres[], doubl
      i=1;
      while ((c=fscanf(ficpop,"%d %lf\n",&popage[i],&popcount[i])) != EOF) i=i+1;
      imx=i;
      for (i=1; i<imx;i++) popeffectif[popage[i]]=popcount[i];
    }
    for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i2;cptcov++){
-    for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){
+     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){
        k=k+1;
        fprintf(ficrespop,"\n#******");
        for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
- Line 5135  void populforecast(char fileres[], doubl
+ Line 6619  void populforecast(char fileres[], doubl
        for (cpt=0; cpt<=0;cpt++) {
          fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);
          for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedatem %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedatem %12)/12.); agedeb--){
            nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm);
            nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;
            p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
            oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
            hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);
            for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
              if (h==(int) (calagedatem+YEARM*cpt)) {
                fprintf(ficrespop,"\n %3.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
- Line 5158  void populforecast(char fileres[], doubl
+ Line 6642  void populforecast(char fileres[], doubl
                }
                if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)){
                  tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod]=kk1;
-                   /*fprintf(ficrespop," %.3f", kk1);
+                 /*fprintf(ficrespop," %.3f", kk1);
-                     if (popforecast==1) fprintf(ficrespop," [%.f]", kk1*popeffectif[(int)agedeb+1]);*/
+                   if (popforecast==1) fprintf(ficrespop," [%.f]", kk1*popeffectif[(int)agedeb+1]);*/
                }
              }
              for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
                kk1=0.;
-                 for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
+               for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
-                   kk1= kk1+tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod];
+                 kk1= kk1+tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod];
-                 }
+               }
-                   tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]=tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]/kk1*popeffectif[(int)(agedeb+(calagedatem+12*cpt)*hstepm/YEARM*stepm-1)];
+               tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]=tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]/kk1*popeffectif[(int)(agedeb+(calagedatem+12*cpt)*hstepm/YEARM*stepm-1)];
              }
-             if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)) for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
+             if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt))
-               fprintf(ficrespop," %15.2f",tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb+1)][j][cptcod]);
+               for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
+                 fprintf(ficrespop," %15.2f",tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb+1)][j][cptcod]);
            }
            free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
          }
        }
-   /******/
+       /******/
        for (cpt=1; cpt<=(anpyram1-anpyram);cpt++) {
          fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);
          for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedatem %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedatem %12)/12.); agedeb--){
- Line 5203  void populforecast(char fileres[], doubl
+ Line 6688  void populforecast(char fileres[], doubl
            free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
          }
        }
-    }
+     }
    }
-   if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+   /* if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX); */
    if (popforecast==1) {
      free_ivector(popage,0,AGESUP);
      free_vector(popeffectif,0,AGESUP);
- Line 5217  void populforecast(char fileres[], doubl
+ Line 6702  void populforecast(char fileres[], doubl
    free_ma3x(tabpopprev,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
    fclose(ficrespop);
  } /* End of popforecast */
  int fileappend(FILE *fichier, char *optionfich)
  {
    if((fichier=fopen(optionfich,"a"))==NULL) {
- Line 5431  double gompertz_f(const gsl_vector *v, v
+ Line 6916  double gompertz_f(const gsl_vector *v, v
  #endif
  /******************* Printing html file ***********/
- void printinghtmlmort(char fileres[], char title[], char datafile[], int firstpass, \
+ void printinghtmlmort(char fileresu[], char title[], char datafile[], int firstpass, \
                    int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[],\
                    int imx,  double p[],double **matcov,double agemortsup){
    int i,k;
- Line 5455  fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><h4>Life table</
+ Line 6940  fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><h4>Life table</
  }
  /******************* Gnuplot file **************/
- void printinggnuplotmort(char fileres[], char optionfilefiname[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double fage , char pathc[], double p[]){
+ void printinggnuplotmort(char fileresu[], char optionfilefiname[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double fage , char pathc[], double p[]){
    char dirfileres[132],optfileres[132];
- Line 5492  int readdata(char datafile[], int firsto
+ Line 6977  int readdata(char datafile[], int firsto
    if((fic=fopen(datafile,"r"))==NULL)    {
-     printf("Problem while opening datafile: %s\n", datafile);fflush(stdout);
+     printf("Problem while opening datafile: %s with errno='%s'\n", datafile,strerror(errno));fflush(stdout);
-     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem while opening datafile: %s\n", datafile);fflush(ficlog);return 1;
+     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem while opening datafile: %s with errno='%s'\n", datafile,strerror(errno));fflush(ficlog);return 1;
    }
    i=1;
- Line 5870  int decodemodel ( char model[], int last
+ Line 7355  int decodemodel ( char model[], int last
  int calandcheckages(int imx, int maxwav, double *agemin, double *agemax, int *nberr, int *nbwarn )
  {
    int i, m;
+   int firstone=0;
    for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
      for(m=2; (m<= maxwav); m++) {
        if (((int)mint[m][i]== 99) && (s[m][i] <= nlstate)){
          anint[m][i]=9999;
-         s[m][i]=-1;
+         if (s[m][i] != -2) /* Keeping initial status of unknown vital status */
+           s[m][i]=-1;
        }
        if((int)moisdc[i]==99 && (int)andc[i]==9999 && s[m][i]>nlstate){
          *nberr = *nberr + 1;
-         printf("Error! Date of death (month %2d and year %4d) of individual %ld on line %d was unknown, you must set an arbitrary year of death or he/she is skipped and results are biased (%d)\n",(int)moisdc[i],(int)andc[i],num[i],i, *nberr);
+         if(firstone == 0){
-         fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Date of death (month %2d and year %4d) of individual %ld on line %d was unknown, you must set an arbitrary year of death or he/she is skipped and results are biased (%d)\n",(int)moisdc[i],(int)andc[i],num[i],i, *nberr);
+           firstone=1;
+         printf("Error! Date of death (month %2d and year %4d) of individual %ld on line %d was unknown, you must set an arbitrary year of death or he/she is skipped and results can be biased (%d) because status is a death state %d at wave %d. Wave dropped.\nOther similar cases in log file\n",(int)moisdc[i],(int)andc[i],num[i],i, *nberr,s[m][i],m);
+         }
+         fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Date of death (month %2d and year %4d) of individual %ld on line %d was unknown, you must set an arbitrary year of death or he/she is skipped and results can be biased (%d) because status is a death state %d at wave %d. Wave dropped.\n",(int)moisdc[i],(int)andc[i],num[i],i, *nberr,s[m][i],m);
          s[m][i]=-1;
        }
        if((int)moisdc[i]==99 && (int)andc[i]!=9999 && s[m][i]>nlstate){
- Line 5895  int calandcheckages(int imx, int maxwav,
+ Line 7385  int calandcheckages(int imx, int maxwav,
    for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {
      agedc[i]=(moisdc[i]/12.+andc[i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+annais[i]);
      for(m=firstpass; (m<= lastpass); m++){
-       if(s[m][i] >0 || s[m][i]==-2 || s[m][i]==-4 || s[m][i]==-5){
+       if(s[m][i] >0  || s[m][i]==-1 || s[m][i]==-2 || s[m][i]==-4 || s[m][i]==-5){ /* What if s[m][i]=-1 */
          if (s[m][i] >= nlstate+1) {
            if(agedc[i]>0){
              if((int)moisdc[i]!=99 && (int)andc[i]!=9999){
                agev[m][i]=agedc[i];
-           /*if(moisdc[i]==99 && andc[i]==9999) s[m][i]=-1;*/
+               /*if(moisdc[i]==99 && andc[i]==9999) s[m][i]=-1;*/
              }else {
                if ((int)andc[i]!=9999){
                  nbwarn++;
- Line 5910  int calandcheckages(int imx, int maxwav,
+ Line 7400  int calandcheckages(int imx, int maxwav,
                }
              }
            } /* agedc > 0 */
-         }
+         } /* end if */
          else if(s[m][i] !=9){ /* Standard case, age in fractional
                                   years but with the precision of a month */
            agev[m][i]=(mint[m][i]/12.+1./24.+anint[m][i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+1./24.+annais[i]);
- Line 5926  int calandcheckages(int imx, int maxwav,
+ Line 7416  int calandcheckages(int imx, int maxwav,
            }
            /*agev[m][i]=anint[m][i]-annais[i];*/
            /*     agev[m][i] = age[i]+2*m;*/
-         }
+         } /* en if 9*/
          else { /* =9 */
+           /* printf("Debug num[%d]=%ld s[%d][%d]=%d\n",i,num[i], m,i, s[m][i]); */
            agev[m][i]=1;
            s[m][i]=-1;
          }
        }
-       else /*= 0 Unknown */
+       else if(s[m][i]==0) /*= 0 Unknown */
          agev[m][i]=1;
-     }
+       else{
+         printf("Warning, num[%d]=%ld, s[%d][%d]=%d\n", i, num[i], m, i,s[m][i]);
+         fprintf(ficlog, "Warning, num[%d]=%ld, s[%d][%d]=%d\n", i, num[i], m, i,s[m][i]);
+         agev[m][i]=0;
+       }
+     } /* End for lastpass */
    }
    for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {
      for(m=firstpass; (m<=lastpass); m++){
        if (s[m][i] > (nlstate+ndeath)) {
- Line 6162  void syscompilerinfo(int logged)
+ Line 7658  void syscompilerinfo(int logged)
   }
- int prevalence_limit(double *p, double **prlim, double ageminpar, double agemaxpar){
+  int prevalence_limit(double *p, double **prlim, double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double ftolpl, int *ncvyearp){
    /*--------------- Prevalence limit  (period or stable prevalence) --------------*/
    int i, j, k, i1 ;
-   double ftolpl = 1.e-10;
+   /* double ftolpl = 1.e-10; */
    double age, agebase, agelim;
+   double tot;
-     strcpy(filerespl,"pl");
+   strcpy(filerespl,"PL_");
-     strcat(filerespl,fileres);
+   strcat(filerespl,fileresu);
-     if((ficrespl=fopen(filerespl,"w"))==NULL) {
+   if((ficrespl=fopen(filerespl,"w"))==NULL) {
-       printf("Problem with period (stable) prevalence resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);return 1;
+     printf("Problem with period (stable) prevalence resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);return 1;
-       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with period (stable) prevalence resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);return 1;
+     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with period (stable) prevalence resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);return 1;
-     }
+   }
-     printf("Computing period (stable) prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);
+   printf("Computing period (stable) prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);
-     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing period (stable) prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);
+   fprintf(ficlog,"Computing period (stable) prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);
-     pstamp(ficrespl);
+   pstamp(ficrespl);
-     fprintf(ficrespl,"# Period (stable) prevalence \n");
+   fprintf(ficrespl,"# Period (stable) prevalence. Precision given by ftolpl=%g \n", ftolpl);
-     fprintf(ficrespl,"#Age ");
+   fprintf(ficrespl,"#Age ");
-     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrespl,"%d-%d ",i,i);
+   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrespl,"%d-%d ",i,i);
-     fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");
+   fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");
      /* prlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);*/ /* back in main */
- Line 6212  int prevalence_limit(double *p, double *
+ Line 7709  int prevalence_limit(double *p, double *
          for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
            fprintf(ficrespl,"V%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
          }
-         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrespl,"%d-%d ",i,i);
+         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrespl,"  %d-%d   ",i,i);
-         fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");
+         fprintf(ficrespl,"Total Years_to_converge\n");
          for (age=agebase; age<=agelim; age++){
          /* for (age=agebase; age<=agebase; age++){ */
-           prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);
+           prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm, ftolpl, ncvyearp, k);
            fprintf(ficrespl,"%.0f ",age );
            for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
              fprintf(ficrespl,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
-           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+           tot=0.;
+           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+             tot +=  prlim[i][i];
              fprintf(ficrespl," %.5f", prlim[i][i]);
-           fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");
+           }
+           fprintf(ficrespl," %.3f %d\n", tot, *ncvyearp);
          } /* Age */
          /* was end of cptcod */
      } /* cptcov */
          return 0;
  }
+ int back_prevalence_limit(double *p, double **bprlim, double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double ftolpl, int *ncvyearp, double dateprev1,double dateprev2, int firstpass, int lastpass, int mobilavproj){
+         /*--------------- Back Prevalence limit  (period or stable prevalence) --------------*/
+         /* Computes the back prevalence limit  for any combination      of covariate values
+    * at any age between ageminpar and agemaxpar
+          */
+   int i, j, k, i1 ;
+   /* double ftolpl = 1.e-10; */
+   double age, agebase, agelim;
+   double tot;
+   /* double ***mobaverage; */
+   /* double      **dnewm, **doldm, **dsavm;  /\* for use *\/ */
+   strcpy(fileresplb,"PLB_");
+   strcat(fileresplb,fileresu);
+   if((ficresplb=fopen(fileresplb,"w"))==NULL) {
+     printf("Problem with period (stable) back prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresplb);return 1;
+     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with period (stable) back prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresplb);return 1;
+   }
+   printf("Computing period (stable) back prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", fileresplb);
+   fprintf(ficlog,"Computing period (stable) back prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", fileresplb);
+   pstamp(ficresplb);
+   fprintf(ficresplb,"# Period (stable) back prevalence. Precision given by ftolpl=%g \n", ftolpl);
+   fprintf(ficresplb,"#Age ");
+   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficresplb,"%d-%d ",i,i);
+   fprintf(ficresplb,"\n");
+   /* prlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);*/ /* back in main */
+   agebase=ageminpar;
+   agelim=agemaxpar;
+   i1=pow(2,cptcoveff);
+   if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
+   for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
+     /* for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=1;cptcov++){ */
+     //for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
+     k=k+1;
+     /* to clean */
+     //printf("cptcov=%d cptcod=%d codtab=%d\n",cptcov, cptcod,codtabm(cptcod,cptcov));
+     fprintf(ficresplb,"#******");
+     printf("#******");
+     fprintf(ficlog,"#******");
+     for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
+       fprintf(ficresplb," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+       printf(" V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+       fprintf(ficlog," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+     }
+     fprintf(ficresplb,"******\n");
+     printf("******\n");
+     fprintf(ficlog,"******\n");
+     fprintf(ficresplb,"#Age ");
+     for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
+       fprintf(ficresplb,"V%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+     }
+     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficresplb,"  %d-%d   ",i,i);
+     fprintf(ficresplb,"Total Years_to_converge\n");
+     for (age=agebase; age<=agelim; age++){
+       /* for (age=agebase; age<=agebase; age++){ */
+       if(mobilavproj > 0){
+         /* bprevalim(bprlim, mobaverage, nlstate, p, age, ageminpar, agemaxpar, oldm, savm, doldm, dsavm, ftolpl, ncvyearp, k); */
+         /* bprevalim(bprlim, mobaverage, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm, dnewm, doldm, dsavm, ftolpl, ncvyearp, k); */
+         bprevalim(bprlim, mobaverage, nlstate, p, age, ftolpl, ncvyearp, k);
+       }else if (mobilavproj == 0){
+         printf("There is no chance to get back prevalence limit if data aren't non zero and summing to 1, please try a non null mobil_average(=%d) parameter or mobil_average=-1 if you want to try at your own risk.\n",mobilavproj);
+         fprintf(ficlog,"There is no chance to get back prevalence limit if data aren't non zero and summing to 1, please try a non null mobil_average(=%d) parameter or mobil_average=-1 if you want to try at your own risk.\n",mobilavproj);
+         exit(1);
+       }else{
+         /* bprevalim(bprlim, probs, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm, dnewm, doldm, dsavm, ftolpl, ncvyearp, k); */
+         bprevalim(bprlim, probs, nlstate, p, age, ftolpl, ncvyearp, k);
+       }
+       fprintf(ficresplb,"%.0f ",age );
+       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
+         fprintf(ficresplb,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+       tot=0.;
+       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+         tot +=  bprlim[i][i];
+         fprintf(ficresplb," %.5f", bprlim[i][i]);
+       }
+       fprintf(ficresplb," %.3f %d\n", tot, *ncvyearp);
+     } /* Age */
+     /* was end of cptcod */
+   } /* cptcov */
+   /* hBijx(p, bage, fage); */
+   /* fclose(ficrespijb); */
+   return 0;
+ }
  int hPijx(double *p, int bage, int fage){
      /*------------- h Pij x at various ages ------------*/
- Line 6242  int hPijx(double *p, int bage, int fage)
+ Line 7838  int hPijx(double *p, int bage, int fage)
    double agedeb;
    double ***p3mat;
-     strcpy(filerespij,"pij");  strcat(filerespij,fileres);
+     strcpy(filerespij,"PIJ_");  strcat(filerespij,fileresu);
      if((ficrespij=fopen(filerespij,"w"))==NULL) {
        printf("Problem with Pij resultfile: %s\n", filerespij); return 1;
        fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Pij resultfile: %s\n", filerespij); return 1;
- Line 6256  int hPijx(double *p, int bage, int fage)
+ Line 7852  int hPijx(double *p, int bage, int fage)
      agelim=AGESUP;
      hstepm=stepsize*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
      hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */
      /* hstepm=1;   aff par mois*/
      pstamp(ficrespij);
      fprintf(ficrespij,"#****** h Pij x Probability to be in state j at age x+h being in i at x ");
      i1= pow(2,cptcoveff);
-    /* for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){ */
+                 /* for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){ */
-    /*    /\*for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*\/ */
+                 /*    /\*for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*\/ */
-    /*   k=k+1;  */
+                 /*      k=k+1;  */
      for (k=1; k <= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff); k++){
        fprintf(ficrespij,"\n#****** ");
        for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
- Line 6297  int hPijx(double *p, int bage, int fage)
+ Line 7893  int hPijx(double *p, int bage, int fage)
        }
        /*}*/
      }
-         return 0;
+     return 0;
  }
+  int hBijx(double *p, int bage, int fage, double ***prevacurrent){
+     /*------------- h Bij x at various ages ------------*/
+   int stepsize;
+   /* int agelim; */
+         int ageminl;
+   int hstepm;
+   int nhstepm;
+   int h, i, i1, j, k;
+   double agedeb;
+   double ***p3mat;
+   strcpy(filerespijb,"PIJB_");  strcat(filerespijb,fileresu);
+   if((ficrespijb=fopen(filerespijb,"w"))==NULL) {
+     printf("Problem with Pij back resultfile: %s\n", filerespijb); return 1;
+     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Pij back resultfile: %s\n", filerespijb); return 1;
+   }
+   printf("Computing pij back: result on file '%s' \n", filerespijb);
+   fprintf(ficlog,"Computing pij back: result on file '%s' \n", filerespijb);
+   stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
+   /*if (stepm<=24) stepsize=2;*/
+   /* agelim=AGESUP; */
+   ageminl=30;
+   hstepm=stepsize*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
+   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */
+   /* hstepm=1;   aff par mois*/
+   pstamp(ficrespijb);
+   fprintf(ficrespijb,"#****** h Pij x Back Probability to be in state i at age x-h being in j at x ");
+   i1= pow(2,cptcoveff);
+   /* for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){ */
+   /*    /\*for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*\/ */
+   /*    k=k+1;  */
+   for (k=1; k <= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff); k++){
+     fprintf(ficrespijb,"\n#****** ");
+     for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
+       fprintf(ficrespijb,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+     fprintf(ficrespijb,"******\n");
+     /* for (agedeb=fage; agedeb>=bage; agedeb--){ /\* If stepm=6 months *\/ */
+     for (agedeb=bage; agedeb<=fage; agedeb++){ /* If stepm=6 months and estepm=24 (2 years) */
+       /* nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); /\* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 *\/ */
+       nhstepm=(int) rint((agedeb-ageminl)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */
+       nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10, because estepm=24 stepm=6 => hstepm=24/6=4 */
+       /*          nhstepm=nhstepm*YEARM; aff par mois*/
+       p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+       /* oldm=oldms;savm=savms; */
+       /* hbxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);   */
+       hbxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,prevacurrent,nlstate,stepm, k);
+       /* hbxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,prevacurrent,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, dnewm, doldm, dsavm, k); */
+       fprintf(ficrespijb,"# Cov Agex agex-h hpijx with i,j=");
+       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+         for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
+           fprintf(ficrespijb," %1d-%1d",i,j);
+       fprintf(ficrespijb,"\n");
+       for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
+         /*agedebphstep = agedeb + h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm;*/
+         fprintf(ficrespijb,"%d %3.f %3.f",k, agedeb, agedeb - h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm );
+         /* fprintf(ficrespijb,"%d %3.f %3.f",k, agedeb, agedeb + h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm ); */
+         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+           for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
+             fprintf(ficrespijb," %.5f", p3mat[i][j][h]);
+         fprintf(ficrespijb,"\n");
+       }
+       free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+       fprintf(ficrespijb,"\n");
+     }
+     /*}*/
+   }
+   return 0;
+  } /*  hBijx */
  /***********************************************/
- Line 6316  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
+ Line 7989  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
  #endif
    int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav);
    int i,j, k, n=MAXN,iter=0,m,size=100, cptcod;
+   int ncvyear=0; /* Number of years needed for the period prevalence to converge */
    int jj, ll, li, lj, lk;
    int numlinepar=0; /* Current linenumber of parameter file */
    int num_filled;
- Line 6331  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
+ Line 8004  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
    double agedeb=0.;
    double ageminpar=AGEOVERFLOW,agemin=AGEOVERFLOW, agemaxpar=-AGEOVERFLOW, agemax=-AGEOVERFLOW;
+         double ageminout=-AGEOVERFLOW,agemaxout=AGEOVERFLOW; /* Smaller Age range redefined after movingaverage */
    double fret;
    double dum=0.; /* Dummy variable */
    double ***p3mat;
-   double ***mobaverage;
+   /* double ***mobaverage; */
    char line[MAXLINE];
    char path[MAXLINE],pathc[MAXLINE],pathcd[MAXLINE],pathtot[MAXLINE];
- Line 6351  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
+ Line 8025  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
    int *tab;
    int mobilavproj=0 , prevfcast=0 ; /* moving average of prev, If prevfcast=1 prevalence projection */
+   int backcast=0;
    int mobilav=0,popforecast=0;
    int hstepm=0, nhstepm=0;
    int agemortsup;
- Line 6361  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
+ Line 8036  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
    double bage=0, fage=110., age, agelim=0., agebase=0.;
    double ftolpl=FTOL;
    double **prlim;
+   double **bprlim;
    double ***param; /* Matrix of parameters */
    double  *p;
    double **matcov; /* Matrix of covariance */
+   double **hess; /* Hessian matrix */
    double ***delti3; /* Scale */
    double *delti; /* Scale */
    double ***eij, ***vareij;
- Line 6371  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
+ Line 8048  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
    double *epj, vepp;
    double dateprev1, dateprev2,jproj1=1,mproj1=1,anproj1=2000,jproj2=1,mproj2=1,anproj2=2000;
+   double jback1=1,mback1=1,anback1=2000,jback2=1,mback2=1,anback2=2000;
    double **ximort;
    char *alph[]={"a","a","b","c","d","e"}, str[4]="1234";
    int *dcwave;
- Line 6423  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
+ Line 8102  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
    printf("\nIMaCh version %s, %s\n%s",version, copyright, fullversion);
    if(argc <=1){
      printf("\nEnter the parameter file name: ");
-     fgets(pathr,FILENAMELENGTH,stdin);
+     if(!fgets(pathr,FILENAMELENGTH,stdin)){
+       printf("ERROR Empty parameter file name\n");
+       goto end;
+     }
      i=strlen(pathr);
      if(pathr[i-1]=='\n')
        pathr[i-1]='\0';
      i=strlen(pathr);
-     if(pathr[i-1]==' ') /* This may happen when dragging on oS/X! */
+     if(i >= 1 && pathr[i-1]==' ') {/* This may happen when dragging on oS/X! */
        pathr[i-1]='\0';
-    for (tok = pathr; tok != NULL; ){
+     }
+     i=strlen(pathr);
+     if( i==0 ){
+       printf("ERROR Empty parameter file name\n");
+       goto end;
+     }
+     for (tok = pathr; tok != NULL; ){
        printf("Pathr |%s|\n",pathr);
        while ((val = strsep(&tok, "\"" )) != NULL && *val == '\0');
        printf("val= |%s| pathr=%s\n",val,pathr);
- Line 6503  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
+ Line 8191  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
    /* */
    strcpy(fileres,"r");
    strcat(fileres, optionfilefiname);
+   strcat(fileresu, optionfilefiname); /* Without r in front */
    strcat(fileres,".txt");    /* Other files have txt extension */
+   strcat(fileresu,".txt");    /* Other files have txt extension */
    /* Main ---------arguments file --------*/
- Line 6518  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
+ Line 8208  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
    strcpy(filereso,"o");
-   strcat(filereso,fileres);
+   strcat(filereso,fileresu);
    if((ficparo=fopen(filereso,"w"))==NULL) { /* opened on subdirectory */
      printf("Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);
      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);
- Line 6564  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
+ Line 8254  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
    if((num_filled=sscanf(line,"ftol=%lf stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\n", \
                          &ftol, &stepm, &ncovcol, &nlstate, &ndeath, &maxwav, &mle, &weightopt)) !=EOF){
      if (num_filled != 8) {
-       printf("Not 8\n");
+       printf("Not 8 parameters, for example:ftol=1.e-8 stepm=12 ncovcol=2 nlstate=2 ndeath=1 maxwav=3 mle=1 weight=1\n");
+       printf("but line=%s\n",line);
      }
      printf("ftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\n",ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate,ndeath, maxwav, mle, weightopt);
    }
+   /* ftolpl=6*ftol*1.e5; /\* 6.e-3 make convergences in less than 80 loops for the prevalence limit *\/ */
+   /*ftolpl=6.e-4; *//* 6.e-3 make convergences in less than 80 loops for the prevalence limit */
    /* Third parameter line */
    while(fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar)) {
      /* If line starts with a # it is a comment */
- Line 6581  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
+ Line 8273  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
      }else
        break;
    }
-   if((num_filled=sscanf(line,"model=1+age%[^.\n]\n", model)) !=EOF){
+   if((num_filled=sscanf(line,"model=1+age%[^.\n]", model)) !=EOF){
-     if (num_filled != 1) {
+     if (num_filled == 0)
+             model[0]='\0';
+     else if (num_filled != 1){
        printf("ERROR %d: Model should be at minimum 'model=1+age.' %s\n",num_filled, line);
        fprintf(ficlog,"ERROR %d: Model should be at minimum 'model=1+age.' %s\n",num_filled, line);
        model[0]='\0';
- Line 6592  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
+ Line 8286  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
        if (model[0]=='+'){
          for(i=1; i<=strlen(model);i++)
            modeltemp[i-1]=model[i];
+         strcpy(model,modeltemp);
        }
-       strcpy(model,modeltemp);
      }
      /* printf(" model=1+age%s modeltemp= %s, model=%s\n",model, modeltemp, model);fflush(stdout); */
+     printf("model=1+age+%s\n",model);fflush(stdout);
    }
    /* fscanf(ficpar,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%lf stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d model=1+age+%s\n",title, datafile, &lastobs, &firstpass,&lastpass,&ftol, &stepm, &ncovcol, &nlstate,&ndeath, &maxwav, &mle, &weightopt,model); */
    /* numlinepar=numlinepar+3; /\* In general *\/ */
    /* printf("title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=1+age+%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate,ndeath, maxwav, mle, weightopt,model); */
-   if(model[strlen(model)-1]=='.') /* Suppressing leading dot in the model */
+   fprintf(ficparo,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=1+age+%s.\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
-     model[strlen(model)-1]='\0';
+   fprintf(ficlog,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=1+age+%s.\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
-   fprintf(ficparo,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=1+age%s.\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
-   fprintf(ficlog,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=1+age%s.\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
    fflush(ficlog);
    /* if(model[0]=='#'|| model[0]== '\0'){ */
    if(model[0]=='#'){
- Line 6668  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
+ Line 8361  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
      fprintf(ficlog," You chose mle=-3, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
      param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
      matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
+     hess=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
    }
    else{
      /* Read guessed parameters */
- Line 6776  run imach with mle=-1 to get a correct t
+ Line 8470  run imach with mle=-1 to get a correct t
      ungetc(c,ficpar);
      matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
+     hess=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
      for(i=1; i <=npar; i++)
        for(j=1; j <=npar; j++) matcov[i][j]=0.;
- Line 6791  This is probably because your covariance
+ Line 8486  This is probably because your covariance
  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct covariance matrix.\n",optionfile,numlinepar, i1,j1,jk, npar, model);
          exit(1);
        }else
-       if(mle==1)
+         if(mle==1)
-         printf("%1d%1d%1d",i1,j1,jk);
+           printf("%1d%1d%1d",i1,j1,jk);
        fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d%1d",i1,j1,jk);
        fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d%1d",i1,j1,jk);
        for(j=1; j <=i; j++){
- Line 6827  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 8522  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
      strcat(rfileres,".");    /* */
      strcat(rfileres,optionfilext);    /* Other files have txt extension */
      if((ficres =fopen(rfileres,"w"))==NULL) {
-       printf("Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", fileres);goto end;
+       printf("Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", rfileres);goto end;
-       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", fileres);goto end;
+       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", rfileres);goto end;
      }
      fprintf(ficres,"#%s\n",version);
    }    /* End of mle != -3 */
    /*  Main data
     */
    n= lastobs;
- Line 6914  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 8609  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
    free_vector(annais,1,n);
    /* free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);
       free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n);*/
-   free_vector(moisdc,1,n);
+   /* free_vector(moisdc,1,n); */
-   free_vector(andc,1,n);
+   /* free_vector(andc,1,n); */
    /* */
    wav=ivector(1,imx);
-   dh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
+   /* dh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx); */
-   bh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
+   /* bh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx); */
-   mw=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
+   /* mw=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx); */
+   dh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+2,1,imx); /* We are adding a wave if status is unknown at last wave but death occurs after last wave.*/
+   bh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+2,1,imx);
+   mw=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+2,1,imx);
    /* Concatenates waves */
+   /* Concatenates waves: wav[i] is the number of effective (useful waves) of individual i.
+      Death is a valid wave (if date is known).
+      mw[mi][i] is the number of (mi=1 to wav[i]) effective wave out of mi of individual i
+      dh[m][i] or dh[mw[mi][i]][i] is the delay between two effective waves m=mw[mi][i]
+      and mw[mi+1][i]. dh depends on stepm.
+   */
    concatwav(wav, dh, bh, mw, s, agedc, agev,  firstpass, lastpass, imx, nlstate, stepm);
    /* */
+   free_vector(moisdc,1,n);
+   free_vector(andc,1,n);
    /* Routine tricode is to calculate cptcoveff (real number of unique covariates) and to associate covariable number and modality */
    nbcode=imatrix(0,NCOVMAX,0,NCOVMAX);
- Line 6934  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 8642  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
    Ndum =ivector(-1,NCOVMAX);
    if (ncovmodel-nagesqr > 2 ) /* That is if covariate other than cst, age and age*age */
      tricode(Tvar,nbcode,imx, Ndum); /**< Fills nbcode[Tvar[j]][l]; */
-   /* Nbcode gives the value of the lth modality of jth covariate, in
+   /* Nbcode gives the value of the lth modality (currently 1 to 2) of jth covariate, in
       V2+V1*age, there are 3 covariates Tvar[2]=1 (V1).*/
-   /* 1 to ncodemax[j] is the maximum value of this jth covariate */
+   /* 1 to ncodemax[j] which is the maximum value of this jth covariate */
    /*  codtab=imatrix(1,100,1,10);*/ /* codtab[h,k]=( (h-1) - mod(k-1,2**(k-1) )/2**(k-1) */
    /*printf(" codtab[1,1],codtab[100,10]=%d,%d\n", codtab[1][1],codtabm(100,10));*/
    /* codtab gives the value 1 or 2 of the hth combination of k covariates (1 or 2).*/
+   /* nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(h,j)]) : if there are only 2 modalities for a covariate j,
+    * codtabm(h,j) gives its value classified at position h and nbcode gives how it is coded
+    * (currently 0 or 1) in the data.
+    * In a loop on h=1 to 2**k, and a loop on j (=1 to k), we get the value of
+    * corresponding modality (h,j).
+    */
    h=0;
- Line 6950  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 8665  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
    m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
            /**< codtab(h,k)  k   = codtab[h,k]=( (h-1) - mod(k-1,2**(k-1) )/2**(k-1) + 1
-            * For k=4 covariates, h goes from 1 to 2**k
+            * For k=4 covariates, h goes from 1 to m=2**k
-            * codtabm(h,k)=  1 & (h-1) >> (k-1) ;
+            * codtabm(h,k)=  (1 & (h-1) >> (k-1)) + 1;
+            * #define codtabm(h,k)  (1 & (h-1) >> (k-1))+1
             *     h\k   1     2     3     4
             *______________________________
             *     1 i=1 1 i=1 1 i=1 1 i=1 1
- Line 6971  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 8687  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
             *    15 i=8 1     2     2     2
             *    16     2     2     2     2
             */
-   for(h=1; h <=100 ;h++){
+   /* How to do the opposite? From combination h (=1 to 2**k) how to get the value on the covariates? */
-     /* printf("h=%2d ", h); */
+      /* from h=5 and m, we get then number of covariates k=log(m)/log(2)=4
-      /* for(k=1; k <=10; k++){ */
+      * and the value of each covariate?
-        /* printf("k=%d %d ",k,codtabm(h,k)); */
+      * V1=1, V2=1, V3=2, V4=1 ?
-      /*   codtab[h][k]=codtabm(h,k); */
+      * h-1=4 and 4 is 0100 or reverse 0010, and +1 is 1121 ok.
-      /* } */
+      * h=6, 6-1=5, 5 is 0101, 1010, 2121, V1=2nd, V2=1st, V3=2nd, V4=1st.
-      /* printf("\n"); */
+      * In order to get the real value in the data, we use nbcode
-   }
+      * nbcode[Tvar[3][2nd]]=1 and nbcode[Tvar[4][1]]=0
+      * We are keeping this crazy system in order to be able (in the future?)
+      * to have more than 2 values (0 or 1) for a covariate.
+      * #define codtabm(h,k)  (1 & (h-1) >> (k-1))+1
+      * h=6, k=2? h-1=5=0101, reverse 1010, +1=2121, k=2nd position: value is 1: codtabm(6,2)=1
+      *              bbbbbbbb
+      *              76543210
+      *   h-1        00000101 (6-1=5)
+      *(h-1)>>(k-1)= 00000001 >> (2-1) = 1 right shift
+      *           &
+      *     1        00000001 (1)
+      *              00000001        = 1 & ((h-1) >> (k-1))
+      *          +1= 00000010 =2
+      *
+      * h=14, k=3 => h'=h-1=13, k'=k-1=2
+      *          h'      1101 =2^3+2^2+0x2^1+2^0
+      *    >>k'            11
+      *          &   00000001
+      *            = 00000001
+      *      +1    = 00000010=2    =  codtabm(14,3)
+      * Reverse h=6 and m=16?
+      * cptcoveff=log(16)/log(2)=4 covariate: 6-1=5=0101 reversed=1010 +1=2121 =>V1=2, V2=1, V3=2, V4=1.
+      * for (j=1 to cptcoveff) Vj=decodtabm(j,h,cptcoveff)
+      * decodtabm(h,j,cptcoveff)= (((h-1) >> (j-1)) & 1) +1
+      * decodtabm(h,j,cptcoveff)= (h <= (1<<cptcoveff)?(((h-1) >> (j-1)) & 1) +1 : -1)
+      * V3=decodtabm(14,3,2**4)=2
+      *          h'=13   1101 =2^3+2^2+0x2^1+2^0
+      *(h-1) >> (j-1)    0011 =13 >> 2
+      *          &1 000000001
+      *           = 000000001
+      *         +1= 000000010 =2
+      *                  2211
+      *                  V1=1+1, V2=0+1, V3=1+1, V4=1+1
+      *                  V3=2
+      */
+   /* /\* for(h=1; h <=100 ;h++){  *\/ */
+   /*   /\* printf("h=%2d ", h); *\/ */
+   /*    /\* for(k=1; k <=10; k++){ *\/ */
+   /*      /\* printf("k=%d %d ",k,codtabm(h,k)); *\/ */
+   /*    /\*   codtab[h][k]=codtabm(h,k); *\/ */
+   /*    /\* } *\/ */
+   /*    /\* printf("\n"); *\/ */
+   /* } */
    /* for(k=1;k<=cptcoveff; k++){ /\* scans any effective covariate *\/ */
    /*   for(i=1; i <=pow(2,cptcoveff-k);i++){ /\* i=1 to 8/1=8; i=1 to 8/2=4; i=1 to 8/8=1 *\/  */
    /*     for(j=1; j <= ncodemax[k]; j++){ /\* For each modality of this covariate ncodemax=2*\/ */
- Line 7011  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 8770  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
    /* Initialisation of ----------- gnuplot -------------*/
    strcpy(optionfilegnuplot,optionfilefiname);
    if(mle==-3)
-     strcat(optionfilegnuplot,"-mort");
+     strcat(optionfilegnuplot,"-MORT_");
    strcat(optionfilegnuplot,".gp");
    if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"w"))==NULL) {
      printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot);
    }
    else{
-     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# %s\n", version);
+     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# IMaCh-%s\n", version);
      fprintf(ficgp,"# %s\n", optionfilegnuplot);
      //fprintf(ficgp,"set missing 'NaNq'\n");
      fprintf(ficgp,"set datafile missing 'NaNq'\n");
- Line 7030  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 8789  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
    strcpy(optionfilehtm,optionfilefiname); /* Main html file */
    if(mle==-3)
-     strcat(optionfilehtm,"-mort");
+     strcat(optionfilehtm,"-MORT_");
    strcat(optionfilehtm,".htm");
    if((fichtm=fopen(optionfilehtm,"w"))==NULL)    {
      printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtm);
- Line 7045  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 8804  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
    else{
    fprintf(fichtmcov,"<html><head>\n<title>IMaCh Cov %s</title></head>\n <body><font size=\"2\">%s <br> %s</font> \
  <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n\
- Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>\n",\
+ Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=1+age+%s<br>\n",\
            optionfilehtmcov,version,fullversion,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt, model);
    }
-   fprintf(fichtm,"<html><head>\n<title>IMaCh %s</title></head>\n <body><font size=\"2\">%s <br> %s</font> \
+   fprintf(fichtm,"<html><head>\n<head>\n<meta charset=\"utf-8\"/><meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<title>IMaCh %s</title></head>\n <body><font size=\"7\"><a href=http:/euroreves.ined.fr/imach>IMaCh for Interpolated Markov Chain</a> </font><br>\n<font size=\"3\">Sponsored by Copyright (C)  2002-2015 <a href=http://www.ined.fr>INED</a>-EUROREVES-Institut de longévité-2013-2016-Japan Society for the Promotion of Sciences 日本学術振興会 (<a href=https://www.jsps.go.jp/english/e-grants/>Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research 25293121</a>) - <a href=https://software.intel.com/en-us>Intel Software 2015-2018</a></font><br>  \
  <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n\
- Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>\n\
+ <font size=\"2\">IMaCh-%s <br> %s</font> \
+ <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n\
+ Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=1+age+%s<br>\n\
  \n\
  <hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">\
   <ul><li><h4>Parameter files</h4>\n\
- Line 7077  Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d La
+ Line 8838  Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d La
    /* Calculates basic frequencies. Computes observed prevalence at single age
       and prints on file fileres'p'. */
-   freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,strstart);
+   freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,strstart,\
+               firstpass, lastpass,  stepm,  weightopt, model);
    fprintf(fichtm,"\n");
    fprintf(fichtm,"<br>Total number of observations=%d <br>\n\
- Line 7089  Interval (in months) between two waves:
+ Line 8851  Interval (in months) between two waves:
      newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
      savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
      oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */
    /* For Powell, parameters are in a vector p[] starting at p[1]
       so we point p on param[1][1] so that p[1] maps on param[1][1][1] */
    p=param[1][1]; /* *(*(*(param +1)+1)+0) */
- Line 7108  Interval (in months) between two waves:
+ Line 8869  Interval (in months) between two waves:
      for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
        dcwave[i]=-1;
        for (m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++)
-         if (s[m][i]>nlstate) {
+                                 if (s[m][i]>nlstate) {
-           dcwave[i]=m;
+                                         dcwave[i]=m;
-           /*    printf("i=%d j=%d s=%d dcwave=%d\n",i,j, s[j][i],dcwave[i]);*/
+                                         /*      printf("i=%d j=%d s=%d dcwave=%d\n",i,j, s[j][i],dcwave[i]);*/
-           break;
+                                         break;
-         }
+                                 }
      }
      for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
        if (wav[i]>0){
-         ageexmed[i]=agev[mw[1][i]][i];
+                                 ageexmed[i]=agev[mw[1][i]][i];
-         j=wav[i];
+                                 j=wav[i];
-         agecens[i]=1.;
+                                 agecens[i]=1.;
-         if (ageexmed[i]> 1 && wav[i] > 0){
+                                 if (ageexmed[i]> 1 && wav[i] > 0){
-           agecens[i]=agev[mw[j][i]][i];
+                                         agecens[i]=agev[mw[j][i]][i];
-           cens[i]= 1;
+                                         cens[i]= 1;
-         }else if (ageexmed[i]< 1)
+                                 }else if (ageexmed[i]< 1)
-           cens[i]= -1;
+                                         cens[i]= -1;
-         if (agedc[i]< AGESUP && agedc[i]>1 && dcwave[i]>firstpass && dcwave[i]<=lastpass)
+                                 if (agedc[i]< AGESUP && agedc[i]>1 && dcwave[i]>firstpass && dcwave[i]<=lastpass)
-           cens[i]=0 ;
+                                         cens[i]=0 ;
        }
        else cens[i]=-1;
      }
      for (i=1;i<=NDIM;i++) {
        for (j=1;j<=NDIM;j++)
-         ximort[i][j]=(i == j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
+                                 ximort[i][j]=(i == j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
      }
      /*p[1]=0.0268; p[NDIM]=0.083;*/
- Line 7146  Interval (in months) between two waves:
+ Line 8907  Interval (in months) between two waves:
  #else
      printf("Powell\n");  fprintf(ficlog,"Powell\n");
  #endif
-     strcpy(filerespow,"pow-mort");
+     strcpy(filerespow,"POW-MORT_");
-     strcat(filerespow,fileres);
+     strcat(filerespow,fileresu);
      if((ficrespow=fopen(filerespow,"w"))==NULL) {
        printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
        fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
- Line 7243  Interval (in months) between two waves:
+ Line 9004  Interval (in months) between two waves:
  #endif
      fclose(ficrespow);
-     hesscov(matcov, p, NDIM, delti, 1e-4, gompertz);
+     hesscov(matcov, hess, p, NDIM, delti, 1e-4, gompertz);
      for(i=1; i <=NDIM; i++)
        for(j=i+1;j<=NDIM;j++)
          matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];
      printf("\nCovariance matrix\n ");
+     fprintf(ficlog,"\nCovariance matrix\n ");
      for(i=1; i <=NDIM; i++) {
        for(j=1;j<=NDIM;j++){
          printf("%f ",matcov[i][j]);
+         fprintf(ficlog,"%f ",matcov[i][j]);
        }
-       printf("\n ");
+       printf("\n ");  fprintf(ficlog,"\n ");
      }
      printf("iter=%d MLE=%f Eq=%lf*exp(%lf*(age-%d))\n",iter,-gompertz(p),p[1],p[2],agegomp);
- Line 7301  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 9064  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
  This is probably because your parameter file doesn't \n  contain the exact number of lines (or columns) corresponding to your model line.\n\
  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct covariance matrix.\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar);
      }else
-       printinggnuplotmort(fileres, optionfilefiname,ageminpar,agemaxpar,fage, pathc,p);
+       printinggnuplotmort(fileresu, optionfilefiname,ageminpar,agemaxpar,fage, pathc,p);
-     printinghtmlmort(fileres,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, \
+     printinghtmlmort(fileresu,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, \
                       stepm, weightopt,\
                       model,imx,p,matcov,agemortsup);
- Line 7316  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 9079  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
      free_matrix(ximort,1,NDIM,1,NDIM);
  #endif
    } /* Endof if mle==-3 mortality only */
-   /* Standard maximisation */
+   /* Standard  */
-   else{ /* For mle >=1 */
+   else{ /* For mle !=- 3, could be 0 or 1 or 4 etc. */
-     globpr=0;/* debug */
+     globpr=0;/* Computes sum of likelihood for globpr=1 and funcone */
-     /* Computes likelihood for initial parameters */
+     /* Computes likelihood for initial parameters, uses funcone to compute gpimx and gsw */
      likelione(ficres, p, npar, nlstate, &globpr, &ipmx, &sw, &fretone, funcone); /* Prints the contributions to the likelihood */
      printf("First Likeli=%12.6f ipmx=%ld sw=%12.6f",fretone,ipmx,sw);
      for (k=1; k<=npar;k++)
        printf(" %d %8.5f",k,p[k]);
      printf("\n");
-     globpr=1; /* again, to print the contributions */
+     if(mle>=1){ /* Could be 1 or 2, Real Maximization */
+       /* mlikeli uses func not funcone */
+       mlikeli(ficres,p, npar, ncovmodel, nlstate, ftol, func);
+     }
+     if(mle==0) {/* No optimization, will print the likelihoods for the datafile */
+       globpr=0;/* Computes sum of likelihood for globpr=1 and funcone */
+       /* Computes likelihood for initial parameters, uses funcone to compute gpimx and gsw */
+       likelione(ficres, p, npar, nlstate, &globpr, &ipmx, &sw, &fretone, funcone); /* Prints the contributions to the likelihood */
+     }
+     globpr=1; /* again, to print the individual contributions using computed gpimx and gsw */
      likelione(ficres, p, npar, nlstate, &globpr, &ipmx, &sw, &fretone, funcone); /* Prints the contributions to the likelihood */
      printf("Second Likeli=%12.6f ipmx=%ld sw=%12.6f",fretone,ipmx,sw);
      for (k=1; k<=npar;k++)
        printf(" %d %8.5f",k,p[k]);
      printf("\n");
-     if(mle>=1){ /* Could be 1 or 2, Real Maximisation */
-       mlikeli(ficres,p, npar, ncovmodel, nlstate, ftol, func);
-     }
      /*--------- results files --------------*/
      fprintf(ficres,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle= 0 weight=%d\nmodel=1+age+%s.\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate, ndeath, maxwav, weightopt,model);
- Line 7360  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 9129  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
          }
        }
      }
-     if(mle!=0){
+     if(mle != 0){
-       /* Computing hessian and covariance matrix */
+       /* Computing hessian and covariance matrix only at a peak of the Likelihood, that is after optimization */
        ftolhess=ftol; /* Usually correct */
-       hesscov(matcov, p, npar, delti, ftolhess, func);
+       hesscov(matcov, hess, p, npar, delti, ftolhess, func);
-     }
+       printf("Parameters and 95%% confidence intervals\n W is simply the result of the division of the parameter by the square root of covariance of the parameter.\n And Wald-based confidence intervals plus and minus 1.96 * W .\n But be careful that parameters are highly correlated because incidence of disability is highly correlated to incidence of recovery.\n It might be better to visualize the covariance matrix. See the page 'Matrix of variance-covariance of one-step probabilities' and its graphs.\n");
-     printf("Parameters and 95%% confidence intervals\n W is simply the result of the division of the parameter by the square root of covariance of the parameter.\n And Wald-based confidence intervals plus and minus 1.96 * W .\n But be careful that parameters are highly correlated because incidence of disability is highly correlated to incidence of recovery.\n It might be better to visualize the covariance matrix. See the page 'Matrix of variance-covariance of one-step probabilities' and its graphs.\n");
+       fprintf(ficlog, "Parameters, Wald tests and Wald-based confidence intervals\n W is simply the result of the division of the parameter by the square root of covariance of the parameter.\n And Wald-based confidence intervals plus and minus 1.96 * W \n  It might be better to visualize the covariance matrix. See the page 'Matrix of variance-covariance of one-step probabilities' and its graphs.\n");
-     fprintf(ficlog, "Parameters, Wald tests and Wald-based confidence intervals\n W is simply the result of the division of the parameter by the square root of covariance of the parameter.\n And Wald-based confidence intervals plus and minus 1.96 * W \n  It might be better to visualize the covariance matrix. See the page 'Matrix of variance-covariance of one-step probabilities' and its graphs.\n");
+       for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
-     for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
+         for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
-       for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
+           if (k != i) {
-         if (k != i) {
+             printf("%d%d ",i,k);
-           printf("%d%d ",i,k);
+             fprintf(ficlog,"%d%d ",i,k);
-           fprintf(ficlog,"%d%d ",i,k);
+             for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
-           for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
+               printf("%12.7f W=%8.3f CI=[%12.7f ; %12.7f] ",p[jk], p[jk]/sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]), p[jk]-1.96*sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]),p[jk]+1.96*sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]));
-             printf("%12.7f W=%8.3f CI=[%12.7f ; %12.7f] ",p[jk], p[jk]/sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]), p[jk]-1.96*sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]),p[jk]+1.96*sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]));
+               fprintf(ficlog,"%12.7f W=%8.3f CI=[%12.7f ; %12.7f] ",p[jk], p[jk]/sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]), p[jk]-1.96*sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]),p[jk]+1.96*sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]));
-             fprintf(ficlog,"%12.7f W=%8.3f CI=[%12.7f ; %12.7f] ",p[jk], p[jk]/sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]), p[jk]-1.96*sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]),p[jk]+1.96*sqrt(matcov[jk][jk]));
+               jk++;
-             jk++;
+             }
+             printf("\n");
+             fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
            }
-           printf("\n");
-           fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
          }
        }
-     }
+     } /* end of hesscov and Wald tests */
+     /*  */
      fprintf(ficres,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
      printf("# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
      fprintf(ficlog,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
- Line 7406  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 9176  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
      }
      fprintf(ficres,"# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
-     if(mle>=1)
+     if(mle >= 1) /* To big for the screen */
        printf("# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
      fprintf(ficlog,"# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
      /* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */
- Line 7469  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 9239  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
                          fprintf(ficres," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                        }else{
                          if(mle>=1)
-                           printf(" %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]);
+                           printf(" %.7e",matcov[jj][ll]);
-                         fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]);
+                         fprintf(ficlog," %.7e",matcov[jj][ll]);
-                         fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]);
+                         fprintf(ficres," %.7e",matcov[jj][ll]);
                        }
                      }
                    }
- Line 7490  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 9260  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
      fflush(ficlog);
      fflush(ficres);
+       while(fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar)) {
-     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
+     /* If line starts with a # it is a comment */
-       ungetc(c,ficpar);
+     if (line[0] == '#') {
-       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
+       numlinepar++;
        fputs(line,stdout);
        fputs(line,ficparo);
-     }
+       fputs(line,ficlog);
-     ungetc(c,ficpar);
+       continue;
+     }else
+       break;
+   }
+     /* while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){ */
+     /*   ungetc(c,ficpar); */
+     /*   fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar); */
+     /*   fputs(line,stdout); */
+     /*   fputs(line,ficparo); */
+     /* } */
+     /* ungetc(c,ficpar); */
      estepm=0;
-     fscanf(ficpar,"agemin=%lf agemax=%lf bage=%lf fage=%lf estepm=%d\n",&ageminpar,&agemaxpar, &bage, &fage, &estepm);
+     if((num_filled=sscanf(line,"agemin=%lf agemax=%lf bage=%lf fage=%lf estepm=%d ftolpl=%lf\n",&ageminpar,&agemaxpar, &bage, &fage, &estepm, &ftolpl)) !=EOF){
+     if (num_filled != 6) {
+       printf("Not 6 parameters in line, for example:agemin=60 agemax=95 bage=55 fage=95 estepm=24 ftolpl=6e-4\n");
+       printf("but line=%s\n",line);
+       goto end;
+     }
+     printf("agemin=%lf agemax=%lf bage=%lf fage=%lf estepm=%d ftolpl=%lf\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar, bage, fage, estepm, ftolpl);
+   }
+   /* ftolpl=6*ftol*1.e5; /\* 6.e-3 make convergences in less than 80 loops for the prevalence limit *\/ */
+   /*ftolpl=6.e-4;*/ /* 6.e-3 make convergences in less than 80 loops for the prevalence limit */
+     /* fscanf(ficpar,"agemin=%lf agemax=%lf bage=%lf fage=%lf estepm=%d ftolpl=%\n",&ageminpar,&agemaxpar, &bage, &fage, &estepm); */
      if (estepm==0 || estepm < stepm) estepm=stepm;
      if (fage <= 2) {
        bage = ageminpar;
- Line 7508  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 9301  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
      }
      fprintf(ficres,"# agemin agemax for life expectancy, bage fage (if mle==0 ie no data nor Max likelihood).\n");
-     fprintf(ficres,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm);
+     fprintf(ficres,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d ftolpl=%e\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm, ftolpl);
-     fprintf(ficparo,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm);
+     fprintf(ficparo,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d, ftolpl=%e\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm, ftolpl);
      /* Other stuffs, more or less useful */
      while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
- Line 7558  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 9351  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
      fprintf(ficres,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
      /* day and month of proj2 are not used but only year anproj2.*/
+     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
+       ungetc(c,ficpar);
+       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
+       fputs(line,stdout);
+       fputs(line,ficparo);
+     }
+     ungetc(c,ficpar);
+     fscanf(ficpar,"backcast=%d starting-back-date=%lf/%lf/%lf final-back-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mobil_average=%d\n",&backcast,&jback1,&mback1,&anback1,&jback2,&mback2,&anback2,&mobilavproj);
+     fscanf(ficparo,"backcast=%d starting-back-date=%lf/%lf/%lf final-back-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mobil_average=%d\n",&backcast,&jback1,&mback1,&anback1,&jback2,&mback2,&anback2,&mobilavproj);
+     fscanf(ficlog,"backcast=%d starting-back-date=%lf/%lf/%lf final-back-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mobil_average=%d\n",&backcast,&jback1,&mback1,&anback1,&jback2,&mback2,&anback2,&mobilavproj);
+     fscanf(ficres,"backcast=%d starting-back-date=%lf/%lf/%lf final-back-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mobil_average=%d\n",&backcast,&jback1,&mback1,&anback1,&jback2,&mback2,&anback2,&mobilavproj);
+     /* day and month of proj2 are not used but only year anproj2.*/
       /* freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint); */
- Line 7572  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 9378  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
  This is probably because your parameter file doesn't \n  contain the exact number of lines (or columns) corresponding to your model line.\n\
  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct covariance matrix.\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar);
      }else
-       printinggnuplot(fileres, optionfilefiname,ageminpar,agemaxpar,fage, pathc,p);
+       printinggnuplot(fileresu, optionfilefiname,ageminpar,agemaxpar,fage, prevfcast, backcast, pathc,p);
-     printinghtml(fileres,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, stepm, weightopt,\
+     printinghtml(fileresu,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, stepm, weightopt,\
-                  model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,rfileres,popforecast,estepm,\
+                  model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,rfileres,popforecast,prevfcast,backcast, estepm, \
-                  jprev1,mprev1,anprev1,jprev2,mprev2,anprev2);
+                  jprev1,mprev1,anprev1,dateprev1,jprev2,mprev2,anprev2,dateprev2);
     /*------------ free_vector  -------------*/
     /*  chdir(path); */
-     free_ivector(wav,1,imx);
+     /* free_ivector(wav,1,imx); */  /* Moved after last prevalence call */
-     free_imatrix(dh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
+     /* free_imatrix(dh,1,lastpass-firstpass+2,1,imx); */
-     free_imatrix(bh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
+     /* free_imatrix(bh,1,lastpass-firstpass+2,1,imx); */
-     free_imatrix(mw,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
+     /* free_imatrix(mw,1,lastpass-firstpass+2,1,imx);    */
      free_lvector(num,1,n);
      free_vector(agedc,1,n);
      /*free_matrix(covar,0,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/
- Line 7599  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 9405  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
      /*--------------- Prevalence limit  (period or stable prevalence) --------------*/
      /*#include "prevlim.h"*/  /* Use ficrespl, ficlog */
      prlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
-     prevalence_limit(p, prlim,  ageminpar, agemaxpar);
+     prevalence_limit(p, prlim,  ageminpar, agemaxpar, ftolpl, &ncvyear);
      fclose(ficrespl);
- #ifdef FREEEXIT2
- #include "freeexit2.h"
- #endif
      /*------------- h Pij x at various ages ------------*/
      /*#include "hpijx.h"*/
      hPijx(p, bage, fage);
      fclose(ficrespij);
+                 ncovcombmax=  pow(2,cptcoveff);
    /*-------------- Variance of one-step probabilities---*/
      k=1;
      varprob(optionfilefiname, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, bage, fage,k,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,strstart);
+                 /* Prevalence for each covariates in probs[age][status][cov] */
-     probs= ma3x(1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+     probs= ma3x(1,AGESUP,1,nlstate+ndeath, 1,ncovcombmax);
      for(i=1;i<=AGESUP;i++)
-       for(j=1;j<=NCOVMAX;j++)
+       for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
-         for(k=1;k<=NCOVMAX;k++)
+                                 for(k=1;k<=ncovcombmax;k++)
-           probs[i][j][k]=0.;
+                                         probs[i][j][k]=0.;
+                 prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemaxpar, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
+                 if (mobilav!=0 ||mobilavproj !=0 ) {
+                         mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,nlstate+ndeath, 1,ncovcombmax);
+                         if (mobilav!=0) {
+                                 if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, agemaxpar, mobaverage, mobilav)!=0){
+                                         fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
+                                         printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
+                                 }
+                         }
+                         /* /\* Prevalence for each covariates in probs[age][status][cov] *\/ */
+                         /* prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemaxpar, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass); */
+                         else if (mobilavproj !=0) {
+                                 if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, agemaxpar, mobaverage, mobilavproj)!=0){
+                                         fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilavproj=%d\n",mobilavproj);
+                                         printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilavproj=%d\n",mobilavproj);
+                                 }
+                         }
+                 }/* end if moving average */
      /*---------- Forecasting ------------------*/
      /*if((stepm == 1) && (strcmp(model,".")==0)){*/
      if(prevfcast==1){
        /*    if(stepm ==1){*/
-       prevforecast(fileres, anproj1, mproj1, jproj1, agemin, agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2, mobilavproj, bage, fage, firstpass, lastpass, anproj2, p, cptcoveff);
+       prevforecast(fileresu, anproj1, mproj1, jproj1, agemin, agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2, mobilavproj, bage, fage, firstpass, lastpass, anproj2, p, cptcoveff);
-       /* (popforecast==1) populforecast(fileres, anpyram,mpyram,jpyram, agemin,agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2,mobilav, agedeb, fage, popforecast, popfile, anpyram1,p, i1);*/
-       /*      }  */
-       /*      else{ */
-       /*        erreur=108; */
-       /*        printf("Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model); */
-       /*        fprintf(ficlog,"Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model); */
-       /*      } */
      }
+     if(backcast==1){
+                 ddnewms=matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
+                 ddoldms=matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
+                 ddsavms=matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
+                         /*--------------- Back Prevalence limit  (period or stable prevalence) --------------*/
+                         /*#include "prevlim.h"*/  /* Use ficresplb, ficlog */
+                         bprlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
+                         back_prevalence_limit(p, bprlim,  ageminpar, agemaxpar, ftolpl, &ncvyear, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass, mobilavproj);
+                         fclose(ficresplb);
+                         hBijx(p, bage, fage, mobaverage);
+                         fclose(ficrespijb);
+                         free_matrix(bprlim,1,nlstate,1,nlstate); /*here or after loop ? */
+       /* prevbackforecast(fileresu, anback1, mback1, jback1, agemin, agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2, mobilavproj, bage, fage, firstpass, lastpass, anback2, p, cptcoveff); */
+                         free_matrix(ddnewms, 1, nlstate+ndeath, 1, nlstate+ndeath);
+                         free_matrix(ddsavms, 1, nlstate+ndeath, 1, nlstate+ndeath);
+                         free_matrix(ddoldms, 1, nlstate+ndeath, 1, nlstate+ndeath);
+                 }
+   /* if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX); */
+   /* if (mobilavproj!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX); */
+     /* (popforecast==1) populforecast(fileres, anpyram,mpyram,jpyram, agemin,agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2,mobilav, agedeb, fage, popforecast, popfile, anpyram1,p, i1);*/
+     /*      }  */
+     /*      else{ */
+     /*        erreur=108; */
+     /*        printf("Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model); */
+     /*        fprintf(ficlog,"Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model); */
+     /*      } */
      /* ------ Other prevalence ratios------------ */
      /* Computes prevalence between agemin (i.e minimal age computed) and no more ageminpar */
-     prevalence(probs, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
+     /* prevalence(probs, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass); */
      /*  printf("ageminpar=%f, agemax=%f, s[lastpass][imx]=%d, agev[lastpass][imx]=%f, nlstate=%d, imx=%d,  mint[lastpass][imx]=%f, anint[lastpass][imx]=%f,dateprev1=%f, dateprev2=%f, firstpass=%d, lastpass=%d\n",\
          ageminpar, agemax, s[lastpass][imx], agev[lastpass][imx], nlstate, imx, mint[lastpass][imx],anint[lastpass][imx], dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
      */
+     free_ivector(wav,1,imx);
-     if (mobilav!=0) {
+     free_imatrix(dh,1,lastpass-firstpass+2,1,imx);
-       mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+     free_imatrix(bh,1,lastpass-firstpass+2,1,imx);
-       if (movingaverage(probs, bage, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
+     free_imatrix(mw,1,lastpass-firstpass+2,1,imx);
-         fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
-         printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
-       }
+                 /*   if (mobilav!=0) { */
-     }
+                 /*     mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX); */
+                 /*     if (movingaverage(probs, bage, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){ */
+                 /* fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav); */
+                 /* printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav); */
+                 /*     } */
+                 /*   } */
      /*---------- Health expectancies, no variances ------------*/
-     strcpy(filerese,"e");
+     strcpy(filerese,"E_");
-     strcat(filerese,fileres);
+     strcat(filerese,fileresu);
      if((ficreseij=fopen(filerese,"w"))==NULL) {
        printf("Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);
        fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);
      }
-     printf("Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);
+     printf("Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' ...", filerese);fflush(stdout);
-     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' ...", filerese);fflush(ficlog);
      /*for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
        for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*/
      for (k=1; k <= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff); k++){
-         fprintf(ficreseij,"\n#****** ");
+                         fprintf(ficreseij,"\n#****** ");
-         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
+                         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
-           fprintf(ficreseij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+                                 fprintf(ficreseij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
-         }
+                         }
-         fprintf(ficreseij,"******\n");
+                         fprintf(ficreseij,"******\n");
-         eij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
+                         eij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
-         oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
+                         oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
-         evsij(eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k, estepm, strstart);
+                         evsij(eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k, estepm, strstart);
-         free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
+                         free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
        /*}*/
      }
      fclose(ficreseij);
+     printf("done evsij\n");fflush(stdout);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"done evsij\n");fflush(ficlog);
      /*---------- Health expectancies and variances ------------*/
-     strcpy(filerest,"t");
+     strcpy(filerest,"T_");
-     strcat(filerest,fileres);
+     strcat(filerest,fileresu);
      if((ficrest=fopen(filerest,"w"))==NULL) {
        printf("Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;
        fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;
      }
-     printf("Computing Total Life expectancies with their standard errors: file '%s' \n", filerest);
+     printf("Computing Total Life expectancies with their standard errors: file '%s' ...\n", filerest); fflush(stdout);
-     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Total Life expectancies with their standard errors: file '%s' \n", filerest);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Total Life expectancies with their standard errors: file '%s' ...\n", filerest); fflush(ficlog);
-     strcpy(fileresstde,"stde");
+     strcpy(fileresstde,"STDE_");
-     strcat(fileresstde,fileres);
+     strcat(fileresstde,fileresu);
      if((ficresstdeij=fopen(fileresstde,"w"))==NULL) {
        printf("Problem with Health Exp. and std errors resultfile: %s\n", fileresstde); exit(0);
        fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Health Exp. and std errors resultfile: %s\n", fileresstde); exit(0);
      }
-     printf("Computing Health Expectancies and standard errors: result on file '%s' \n", fileresstde);
+     printf("  Computing Health Expectancies and standard errors: result on file '%s' \n", fileresstde);
-     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Health Expectancies and standard errors: result on file '%s' \n", fileresstde);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"  Computing Health Expectancies and standard errors: result on file '%s' \n", fileresstde);
-     strcpy(filerescve,"cve");
+     strcpy(filerescve,"CVE_");
-     strcat(filerescve,fileres);
+     strcat(filerescve,fileresu);
      if((ficrescveij=fopen(filerescve,"w"))==NULL) {
        printf("Problem with Covar. Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerescve); exit(0);
        fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Covar. Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerescve); exit(0);
      }
-     printf("Computing Covar. of Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerescve);
+     printf("    Computing Covar. of Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerescve);
-     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Covar. of Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerescve);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"    Computing Covar. of Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerescve);
-     strcpy(fileresv,"v");
+     strcpy(fileresv,"V_");
-     strcat(fileresv,fileres);
+     strcat(fileresv,fileresu);
      if((ficresvij=fopen(fileresv,"w"))==NULL) {
        printf("Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);
        fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);
      }
-     printf("Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);
+     printf("      Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' ... ", fileresv);fflush(stdout);
-     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"      Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' ... ", fileresv);fflush(ficlog);
      /*for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
        for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*/
      for (k=1; k <= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff); k++){
-         fprintf(ficrest,"\n#****** ");
+       fprintf(ficrest,"\n#****** ");
-         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
+       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
-           fprintf(ficrest,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+                                 fprintf(ficrest,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
-         fprintf(ficrest,"******\n");
+       fprintf(ficrest,"******\n");
-         fprintf(ficresstdeij,"\n#****** ");
+       fprintf(ficresstdeij,"\n#****** ");
-         fprintf(ficrescveij,"\n#****** ");
+       fprintf(ficrescveij,"\n#****** ");
-         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
+       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
-           fprintf(ficresstdeij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+                                 fprintf(ficresstdeij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
-           fprintf(ficrescveij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+                                 fprintf(ficrescveij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
-         }
+       }
-         fprintf(ficresstdeij,"******\n");
+       fprintf(ficresstdeij,"******\n");
-         fprintf(ficrescveij,"******\n");
+       fprintf(ficrescveij,"******\n");
-         fprintf(ficresvij,"\n#****** ");
+       fprintf(ficresvij,"\n#****** ");
-         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
+       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
-           fprintf(ficresvij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+                                 fprintf(ficresvij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
-         fprintf(ficresvij,"******\n");
+       fprintf(ficresvij,"******\n");
-         eij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
+       eij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
-         oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
+       oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
-         cvevsij(eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k, estepm, delti, matcov, strstart);
+       printf(" cvevsij %d, ",k);
-         /*
+       fprintf(ficlog, " cvevsij %d, ",k);
-          */
+       cvevsij(eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k, estepm, delti, matcov, strstart);
-         /* goto endfree; */
+       printf(" end cvevsij \n ");
+       fprintf(ficlog, " end cvevsij \n ");
-         vareij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
-         pstamp(ficrest);
+       /*
+        */
+       /* goto endfree; */
-         for(vpopbased=0; vpopbased <= popbased; vpopbased++){ /* Done for vpopbased=0 and vpopbased=1 if popbased==1*/
-           oldm=oldms;savm=savms; /* ZZ Segmentation fault */
+       vareij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
-           cptcod= 0; /* To be deleted */
+       pstamp(ficrest);
-           varevsij(optionfilefiname, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k, estepm, cptcov,cptcod,vpopbased,mobilav, strstart); /* cptcod not initialized Intel */
-           fprintf(ficrest,"# Total life expectancy with std error and decomposition into time to be expected in each health state\n#  (weighted average of eij where weights are ");
-           if(vpopbased==1)
+       for(vpopbased=0; vpopbased <= popbased; vpopbased++){ /* Done for vpopbased=0 and vpopbased=1 if popbased==1*/
-             fprintf(ficrest,"the age specific prevalence observed (cross-sectionally) in the population i.e cross-sectionally\n in each health state (popbased=1) (mobilav=%d)\n",mobilav);
+                                 oldm=oldms;savm=savms; /* ZZ Segmentation fault */
-           else
+                                 cptcod= 0; /* To be deleted */
-             fprintf(ficrest,"the age specific period (stable) prevalences in each health state \n");
+                                 printf("varevsij %d \n",vpopbased);
-           fprintf(ficrest,"# Age e.. (std) ");
+                                 fprintf(ficlog, "varevsij %d \n",vpopbased);
-           for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrest,"e.%d (std) ",i);
+                                 varevsij(optionfilefiname, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl, &ncvyear, k, estepm, cptcov,cptcod,vpopbased,mobilav, strstart); /* cptcod not initialized Intel */
-           fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
+                                 fprintf(ficrest,"# Total life expectancy with std error and decomposition into time to be expected in each health state\n#  (weighted average of eij where weights are ");
-           /* printf("Which p?\n"); for(i=1;i<=npar;i++)printf("p[i=%d]=%lf,",i,p[i]);printf("\n"); */
+                                 if(vpopbased==1)
-           epj=vector(1,nlstate+1);
+                                         fprintf(ficrest,"the age specific prevalence observed (cross-sectionally) in the population i.e cross-sectionally\n in each health state (popbased=1) (mobilav=%d)\n",mobilav);
-           for(age=bage; age <=fage ;age++){
+                                 else
-             prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k); /*ZZ Is it the correct prevalim */
+                                         fprintf(ficrest,"the age specific period (stable) prevalences in each health state \n");
-             if (vpopbased==1) {
+                                 fprintf(ficrest,"# Age popbased mobilav e.. (std) ");
-               if(mobilav ==0){
+                                 for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrest,"e.%d (std) ",i);
-                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+                                 fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
-                   prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][k];
+                                 /* printf("Which p?\n"); for(i=1;i<=npar;i++)printf("p[i=%d]=%lf,",i,p[i]);printf("\n"); */
-               }else{ /* mobilav */
+                                 epj=vector(1,nlstate+1);
-                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+                                 printf("Computing age specific period (stable) prevalences in each health state \n");
-                   prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][k];
+                                 fprintf(ficlog,"Computing age specific period (stable) prevalences in each health state \n");
-               }
+                                 for(age=bage; age <=fage ;age++){
-             }
+                                         prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm, ftolpl, &ncvyear, k); /*ZZ Is it the correct prevalim */
+                                         if (vpopbased==1) {
-             fprintf(ficrest," %4.0f",age);
+                                                 if(mobilav ==0){
-             /* printf(" age %4.0f ",age); */
+                                                         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-             for(j=1, epj[nlstate+1]=0.;j <=nlstate;j++){
+                                                                 prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][k];
-               for(i=1, epj[j]=0.;i <=nlstate;i++) {
+                                                 }else{ /* mobilav */
-                 epj[j] += prlim[i][i]*eij[i][j][(int)age];
+                                                         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-                 /*ZZZ  printf("%lf %lf ", prlim[i][i] ,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
+                                                                 prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][k];
-                 /* printf("%lf %lf ", prlim[i][i] ,eij[i][j][(int)age]); */
+                                                 }
-               }
+                                         }
-               epj[nlstate+1] +=epj[j];
-             }
+                                         fprintf(ficrest," %4.0f %d %d",age, vpopbased, mobilav);
-             /* printf(" age %4.0f \n",age); */
+                                         /* fprintf(ficrest," %4.0f %d %d %d %d",age, vpopbased, mobilav,Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]); */ /* to be done */
+                                         /* printf(" age %4.0f ",age); */
-             for(i=1, vepp=0.;i <=nlstate;i++)
+                                         for(j=1, epj[nlstate+1]=0.;j <=nlstate;j++){
-               for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++)
+                                                 for(i=1, epj[j]=0.;i <=nlstate;i++) {
-                 vepp += vareij[i][j][(int)age];
+                                                         epj[j] += prlim[i][i]*eij[i][j][(int)age];
-             fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[nlstate+1],sqrt(vepp));
+                                                         /*ZZZ  printf("%lf %lf ", prlim[i][i] ,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
-             for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++){
+                                                         /* printf("%lf %lf ", prlim[i][i] ,eij[i][j][(int)age]); */
-               fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[j],sqrt(vareij[j][j][(int)age]));
+                                                 }
-             }
+                                                 epj[nlstate+1] +=epj[j];
-             fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
+                                         }
-           }
+                                         /* printf(" age %4.0f \n",age); */
-         }
-         free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
+                                         for(i=1, vepp=0.;i <=nlstate;i++)
-         free_ma3x(vareij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
+                                                 for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++)
-         free_vector(epj,1,nlstate+1);
+                                                         vepp += vareij[i][j][(int)age];
+                                         fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[nlstate+1],sqrt(vepp));
+                                         for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++){
+                                                 fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[j],sqrt(vareij[j][j][(int)age]));
+                                         }
+                                         fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
+                                 }
+       } /* End vpopbased */
+       free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
+       free_ma3x(vareij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
+       free_vector(epj,1,nlstate+1);
+       printf("done \n");fflush(stdout);
+       fprintf(ficlog,"done\n");fflush(ficlog);
        /*}*/
-     }
+     } /* End k */
      free_vector(weight,1,n);
      free_imatrix(Tvard,1,NCOVMAX,1,2);
      free_imatrix(s,1,maxwav+1,1,n);
- Line 7822  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 9686  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
      fclose(ficrescveij);
      fclose(ficresvij);
      fclose(ficrest);
+     printf("done Health expectancies\n");fflush(stdout);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"done Health expectancies\n");fflush(ficlog);
      fclose(ficpar);
      /*------- Variance of period (stable) prevalence------*/
-     strcpy(fileresvpl,"vpl");
+     strcpy(fileresvpl,"VPL_");
-     strcat(fileresvpl,fileres);
+     strcat(fileresvpl,fileresu);
      if((ficresvpl=fopen(fileresvpl,"w"))==NULL) {
        printf("Problem with variance of period (stable) prevalence  resultfile: %s\n", fileresvpl);
        exit(0);
      }
-     printf("Computing Variance-covariance of period (stable) prevalence: file '%s' \n", fileresvpl);
+     printf("Computing Variance-covariance of period (stable) prevalence: file '%s' ...", fileresvpl);fflush(stdout);
+     fprintf(ficlog, "Computing Variance-covariance of period (stable) prevalence: file '%s' ...", fileresvpl);fflush(ficlog);
      /*for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
        for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*/
      for (k=1; k <= (int) pow(2,cptcoveff); k++){
          fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n#****** ");
-         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
+                         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
-           fprintf(ficresvpl,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+                                 fprintf(ficresvpl,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
-         fprintf(ficresvpl,"******\n");
+                         fprintf(ficresvpl,"******\n");
-         varpl=matrix(1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
+                         varpl=matrix(1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
-         oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
+                         oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
-         varprevlim(fileres, varpl, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k,strstart);
+                         varprevlim(fileres, varpl, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl, &ncvyear, k, strstart);
-         free_matrix(varpl,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
+                         free_matrix(varpl,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
        /*}*/
      }
      fclose(ficresvpl);
+     printf("done variance-covariance of period prevalence\n");fflush(stdout);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"done variance-covariance of period prevalence\n");fflush(ficlog);
      /*---------- End : free ----------------*/
-     if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+     if (mobilav!=0 ||mobilavproj !=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,nlstate+ndeath, 1,ncovcombmax); /* We need to have a squared matrix with prevalence of the dead! */
-     free_ma3x(probs,1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+     free_ma3x(probs,1,AGESUP,1,nlstate+ndeath, 1,ncovcombmax);
    }  /* mle==-3 arrives here for freeing */
   /* endfree:*/
      free_matrix(prlim,1,nlstate,1,nlstate); /*here or after loop ? */
- Line 7864  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 9733  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
      free_matrix(savms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
      free_matrix(covar,0,NCOVMAX,1,n);
      free_matrix(matcov,1,npar,1,npar);
+     free_matrix(hess,1,npar,1,npar);
      /*free_vector(delti,1,npar);*/
      free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
      free_matrix(agev,1,maxwav,1,imx);
- Line 7883  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 9753  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
    if((nberr >0) || (nbwarn>0)){
-     printf("End of Imach with %d errors and/or %d warnings\n",nberr,nbwarn);
+     printf("End of Imach with %d errors and/or %d warnings. Please look at the log file for details.\n",nberr,nbwarn);
-     fprintf(ficlog,"End of Imach with %d errors and/or warnings %d\n",nberr,nbwarn);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"End of Imach with %d errors and/or warnings %d. Please look at the log file for details.\n",nberr,nbwarn);
    }else{
      printf("End of Imach\n");
      fprintf(ficlog,"End of Imach\n");

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