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Diff for /imach/src/imach.c between versions 1.266 and 1.278

-version 1.266, 2017/05/13 07:26:12
+version 1.278, 2017/07/19 14:09:02
  Line 1
  /* $Id$
    $State$
    $Log$
+   Revision 1.278  2017/07/19 14:09:02  brouard
+   Summary: Bug for mobil_average=0 and prevforecast fixed(?)
+   Revision 1.277  2017/07/17 08:53:49  brouard
+   Summary: BOM files can be read now
+   Revision 1.276  2017/06/30 15:48:31  brouard
+   Summary: Graphs improvements
+   Revision 1.275  2017/06/30 13:39:33  brouard
+   Summary: Saito's color
+   Revision 1.274  2017/06/29 09:47:08  brouard
+   Summary: Version 0.99r14
+   Revision 1.273  2017/06/27 11:06:02  brouard
+   Summary: More documentation on projections
+   Revision 1.272  2017/06/27 10:22:40  brouard
+   Summary: Color of backprojection changed from 6 to 5(yellow)
+   Revision 1.271  2017/06/27 10:17:50  brouard
+   Summary: Some bug with rint
+   Revision 1.270  2017/05/24 05:45:29  brouard
+   *** empty log message ***
+   Revision 1.269  2017/05/23 08:39:25  brouard
+   Summary: Code into subroutine, cleanings
+   Revision 1.268  2017/05/18 20:09:32  brouard
+   Summary: backprojection and confidence intervals of backprevalence
+   Revision 1.267  2017/05/13 10:25:05  brouard
+   Summary: temporary save for backprojection
    Revision 1.266  2017/05/13 07:26:12  brouard
    Summary: Version 0.99r13 (improvements and bugs fixed)
- Line 818  Back prevalence and projections:
+ Line 854  Back prevalence and projections:
     p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
                          oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
-    - hbxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);
+    - hbxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k, nres);
       Computes the transition matrix starting at age 'age' over
       'nhstepm*hstepm*stepm' months (i.e. until
       age (in years)  age+nhstepm*hstepm*stepm/12) by multiplying
- Line 986  typedef struct {
+ Line 1022  typedef struct {
  #define YEARM 12. /**< Number of months per year */
  /* #define AGESUP 130 */
  #define AGESUP 150
+ #define AGEINF 0
  #define AGEMARGE 25 /* Marge for agemin and agemax for(iage=agemin-AGEMARGE; iage <= agemax+3+AGEMARGE; iage++) */
  #define AGEBASE 40
  #define AGEOVERFLOW 1.e20
- Line 1077  FILE *ficrescveij;
+ Line 1114  FILE *ficrescveij;
  char filerescve[FILENAMELENGTH];
  FILE  *ficresvij;
  char fileresv[FILENAMELENGTH];
- FILE  *ficresvpl;
- char fileresvpl[FILENAMELENGTH];
  char title[MAXLINE];
  char model[MAXLINE]; /**< The model line */
  char optionfile[FILENAMELENGTH], datafile[FILENAMELENGTH],  filerespl[FILENAMELENGTH],  fileresplb[FILENAMELENGTH];
- Line 1176  double *agedc;
+ Line 1212  double *agedc;
  double  **covar; /**< covar[j,i], value of jth covariate for individual i,
                    * covar=matrix(0,NCOVMAX,1,n);
                    * cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*age; */
- double **coqvar; /* Fixed quantitative covariate iqv */
+ double **coqvar; /* Fixed quantitative covariate nqv */
- double ***cotvar; /* Time varying covariate itv */
+ double ***cotvar; /* Time varying covariate ntv */
  double ***cotqvar; /* Time varying quantitative covariate itqv */
  double  idx;
  int **nbcode, *Tvar; /**< model=V2 => Tvar[1]= 2 */
- Line 2739  Earliest age to start was %d-%d=%d, ncvl
+ Line 2775  Earliest age to start was %d-%d=%d, ncvl
      /* out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, bmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate,prevacurrent, ageminpar, agemaxpar, dnewm, doldm, dsavm,ij)); /\* Bug Valgrind *\/ */
      /* out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, bmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate,prevacurrent, dnewm, doldm, dsavm,ij)); /\* Bug Valgrind *\/ */
      out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, bmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate,prevacurrent,ij)); /* Bug Valgrind */
-     /* if((int)age == 70){ */
+     /* if((int)age == 86 || (int)age == 87){ */
      /*   printf(" Backward prevalim age=%d agefin=%d \n", (int) age, (int) agefin); */
      /*   for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++) { */
      /*  printf("%d newm= ",i); */
- Line 2750  Earliest age to start was %d-%d=%d, ncvl
+ Line 2786  Earliest age to start was %d-%d=%d, ncvl
      /*  for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) { */
      /*    printf("%f ",oldm[i][j]); */
      /*  } */
-     /*  printf(" pmmij "); */
+     /*  printf(" bmmij "); */
      /*  for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) { */
      /*    printf("%f ",pmmij[i][j]); */
      /*  } */
- Line 2778  Earliest age to start was %d-%d=%d, ncvl
+ Line 2814  Earliest age to start was %d-%d=%d, ncvl
        meandiff[i]=(max[i]-min[i])/(max[i]+min[i])*2.; /* mean difference for each column */
        maxmax=FMAX(maxmax,meandiff[i]);
        /* printf("Back age= %d meandiff[%d]=%f, agefin=%d max[%d]=%f min[%d]=%f maxmax=%f\n", (int)age, i, meandiff[i],(int)agefin, i, max[i], i, min[i],maxmax); */
-     } /* j loop */
+     } /* i loop */
      *ncvyear= -( (int)age- (int)agefin);
-     /* printf("Back maxmax=%lf ncvloop=%d, age=%d, agefin=%d ncvyear=%d \n", maxmax, ncvloop, (int)age, (int)agefin, *ncvyear);*/
+     /* printf("Back maxmax=%lf ncvloop=%d, age=%d, agefin=%d ncvyear=%d \n", maxmax, ncvloop, (int)age, (int)agefin, *ncvyear); */
      if(maxmax < ftolpl){
        /* printf("OK Back maxmax=%lf ncvloop=%d, age=%d, agefin=%d ncvyear=%d \n", maxmax, ncvloop, (int)age, (int)agefin, *ncvyear); */
        free_vector(min,1,nlstate);
- Line 2902  double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov,
+ Line 2938  double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov,
    double **out, **pmij();
    double sumnew=0.;
    double agefin;
+   double k3=0.; /* constant of the w_x diagonal matrixe (in order for B to sum to 1 even for death state) */
    double **dnewm, **dsavm, **doldm;
    double **bbmij;
- Line 2911  double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov,
+ Line 2947  double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov,
    dsavm=ddsavms;
    agefin=cov[2];
+   /* Bx = Diag(w_x) P_x Diag(Sum_i w^i_x p^ij_x */
    /* bmij *//* age is cov[2], ij is included in cov, but we need for
       the observed prevalence (with this covariate ij) at beginning of transition */
    /* dsavm=pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate); */
+   /* P_x */
    pmmij=pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate); /*This is forward probability from agefin to agefin + stepm */
-   /* outputs pmmij which is a stochastic matrix */
+   /* outputs pmmij which is a stochastic matrix in row */
-   /* We do have the matrix Px in savm  and we need pij */
+   /* Diag(w_x) */
+   /* Problem with prevacurrent which can be zero */
+   sumnew=0.;
+   /*for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++){*/
+   for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate;ii++){ /* Only on live states */
+     /* printf(" agefin=%d, ii=%d, ij=%d, prev=%f\n",(int)agefin,ii, ij, prevacurrent[(int)agefin][ii][ij]);  */
+     sumnew+=prevacurrent[(int)agefin][ii][ij];
+   }
+   if(sumnew >0.01){  /* At least some value in the prevalence */
+     for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++){
+       for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
+         doldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? prevacurrent[(int)agefin][ii][ij]/sumnew : 0.0);
+     }
+   }else{
+     for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++){
+       for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
+       doldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1./nlstate : 0.0);
+     }
+     /* if(sumnew <0.9){ */
+     /*   printf("Problem internal bmij B: sum on i wi <0.9: j=%d, sum_i wi=%lf,agefin=%d\n",j,sumnew, (int)agefin); */
+     /* } */
+   }
+   k3=0.0;  /* We put the last diagonal to 0 */
+   for (ii=nlstate+1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++){
+       doldm[ii][ii]= k3;
+   }
+   /* End doldm, At the end doldm is diag[(w_i)] */
+   /* left Product of this diag matrix by pmmij=Px (dnewm=dsavm*doldm) */
+   bbmij=matprod2(dnewm, doldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, pmmij); /* Bug Valgrind */
+   /* Diag(Sum_i w^i_x p^ij_x */
+   /* w1 p11 + w2 p21 only on live states N1./N..*N11/N1. + N2./N..*N21/N2.=(N11+N21)/N..=N.1/N.. */
    for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
-     sumnew=0.; /* w1 p11 + w2 p21 only on live states N1./N..*N11/N1. + N2./N..*N21/N2.=(N11+N21)/N..=N.1/N.. */
+     sumnew=0.;
      for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate;ii++){
        /* sumnew+=dsavm[ii][j]*prevacurrent[(int)agefin][ii][ij]; */
-       sumnew+=pmmij[ii][j]*prevacurrent[(int)agefin][ii][ij]; /* Yes prevalence at beginning of transition */
+       sumnew+=pmmij[ii][j]*doldm[ii][ii]; /* Yes prevalence at beginning of transition */
      } /* sumnew is (N11+N21)/N..= N.1/N.. = sum on i of w_i pij */
-     if(sumnew >= 1.e-10){
+     for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++){
-       for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++){
          /* if(agefin >= agemaxpar && agefin <= agemaxpar+stepm/YEARM){ */
-         /*      doldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1./sumnew : 0.0); */
+         /*      dsavm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1./sumnew : 0.0); */
          /* }else if(agefin >= agemaxpar+stepm/YEARM){ */
-         /*      doldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1./sumnew : 0.0); */
+         /*      dsavm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1./sumnew : 0.0); */
          /* }else */
-         doldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1./sumnew : 0.0);
+       dsavm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1./sumnew : 0.0);
-       } /*End ii */
+     } /*End ii */
-     }else{ /* We put the identity matrix */
+   } /* End j, At the end dsavm is diag[1/(w_1p1i+w_2 p2i)] for ALL states even if the sum is only for live states */
-       for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++){
-         doldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1. : 0.0);
+   ps=matprod2(ps, dnewm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, dsavm); /* Bug Valgrind */
-       } /*End ii */
+   /* ps is now diag[w_i] * Px * diag [1/(w_1p1i+w_2 p2i)] */
-       /* printf("Problem internal bmij A: sum_i w_i*p_ij=N.j/N.. <1.e-10 i=%d, j=%d, sumnew=%lf,agefin=%d\n",ii,j,sumnew, (int)agefin); */
-     }
-   } /* End j, At the end doldm is diag[1/(w_1p1i+w_2 p2i)] or identity*/
-   /* left Product of this diag matrix by dsavm=Px (dnewm=dsavm*doldm) */
-   /* bbmij=matprod2(dnewm, dsavm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, doldm); /\* Bug Valgrind *\/ */
-   bbmij=matprod2(dnewm, pmmij,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, doldm); /* Bug Valgrind */
-   /* dsavm=doldm; /\* dsavm is now diag [1/(w_1p1i+w_2 p2i)] but can be overwritten*\/ */
-   /* doldm=dnewm; /\* doldm is now Px * diag [1/(w_1p1i+w_2 p2i)] *\/ */
-   /* dnewm=dsavm; /\* doldm is now Px * diag [1/(w_1p1i+w_2 p2i)] *\/ */
-   /* left Product of this matrix by diag matrix of prevalences (savm) */
-   for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
-     sumnew=0.;
-     for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++){
-       sumnew+=prevacurrent[(int)agefin][ii][ij];
-       dsavm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? prevacurrent[(int)agefin][ii][ij] : 0.0);
-     }
-     /* if(sumnew <0.9){ */
-     /*   printf("Problem internal bmij B: sum on i wi <0.9: j=%d, sum_i wi=%lf,agefin=%d\n",j,sumnew, (int)agefin); */
-     /* } */
-   } /* End j, At the end dsavm is diag[(w_i)] */
-   /* What if dsavm doesn't sum ii to 1? */
-   /* ps=matprod2(doldm, dsavm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, dnewm); /\* Bug Valgrind *\/ */
-   ps=matprod2(ps, dsavm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, dnewm); /* Bug Valgrind */
-   /* newm or out is now diag[w_i] * Px * diag [1/(w_1p1i+w_2 p2i)] */
    /* end bmij */
    return ps; /*pointer is unchanged */
  }
- Line 3174  double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstep
+ Line 3221  double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstep
      }
      for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)
        for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
-                                 po[i][j][h]=newm[i][j];
+         po[i][j][h]=newm[i][j];
-                                 /*if(h==nhstepm) printf("po[%d][%d][%d]=%f ",i,j,h,po[i][j][h]);*/
+         /*if(h==nhstepm) printf("po[%d][%d][%d]=%f ",i,j,h,po[i][j][h]);*/
        }
      /*printf("h=%d ",h);*/
    } /* end h */
-         /*     printf("\n H=%d \n",h); */
+   /*     printf("\n H=%d \n",h); */
    return po;
  }
  /************* Higher Back Matrix Product ***************/
  /* double ***hbxij(double ***po, int nhstepm, double age, int hstepm, double *x, double ***prevacurrent, int nlstate, int stepm, double **oldm, double **savm, double **dnewm, double **doldm, double **dsavm, int ij ) */
- double ***hbxij(double ***po, int nhstepm, double age, int hstepm, double *x, double ***prevacurrent, int nlstate, int stepm, int ij )
+ double ***hbxij(double ***po, int nhstepm, double age, int hstepm, double *x, double ***prevacurrent, int nlstate, int stepm, int ij, int nres )
  {
    /* For a combination of dummy covariate ij, computes the transition matrix starting at age 'age' over
       'nhstepm*hstepm*stepm' months (i.e. until
- Line 3220  double ***hbxij(double ***po, int nhstep
+ Line 3267  double ***hbxij(double ***po, int nhstep
        newm=savm;
        /* Covariates have to be included here again */
        cov[1]=1.;
-       agexact=age-((h-1)*hstepm + (d))*stepm/YEARM; /* age just before transition, d or d-1? */
+       agexact=age-( (h-1)*hstepm + (d)  )*stepm/YEARM; /* age just before transition, d or d-1? */
        /* agexact=age+((h-1)*hstepm + (d-1))*stepm/YEARM; /\* age just before transition *\/ */
        cov[2]=agexact;
        if(nagesqr==1)
- Line 3230  double ***hbxij(double ***po, int nhstep
+ Line 3277  double ***hbxij(double ***po, int nhstep
        /* /\* cov[2+nagesqr+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[k])]; *\/ */
          cov[2+nagesqr+TvarsDind[k]]=nbcode[TvarsD[k]][codtabm(ij,k)];
          /* printf("hbxij Dummy agexact=%.0f combi=%d k=%d TvarsD[%d]=V%d TvarsDind[%d]=%d nbcode=%d cov[%d]=%lf codtabm(%d,Tvar[%d])=%d \n",agexact,ij,k, k, TvarsD[k],k,TvarsDind[k],nbcode[TvarsD[k]][codtabm(ij,k)],2+nagesqr+TvarsDind[k],cov[2+nagesqr+TvarsDind[k]], ij, k, codtabm(ij,k)); */
        }
-       for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) /* Should start at cptcovn+1 */
+       for (k=1; k<=nsq;k++) { /* For single varying covariates only */
-         /* cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2]; */
+         /* Here comes the value of quantitative after renumbering k with single quantitative covariates */
-         cov[2+nagesqr+Tage[k]]=nbcode[Tvar[Tage[k]]][codtabm(ij,k)]*cov[2];
+         cov[2+nagesqr+TvarsQind[k]]=Tqresult[nres][k];
-       /* cov[2+nagesqr+Tage[k]]=nbcode[Tvar[Tage[k]]][codtabm(ij,Tvar[Tage[k]])]*cov[2]; */
+         /* printf("hPxij Quantitative k=%d  TvarsQind[%d]=%d, TvarsQ[%d]=V%d,Tqresult[%d][%d]=%f\n",k,k,TvarsQind[k],k,TvarsQ[k],nres,k,Tqresult[nres][k]); */
-       for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++) /* Useless because included in cptcovn */
+       }
+       for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++){ /* Should start at cptcovn+1 */
+         if(Dummy[Tvar[Tage[k]]]){
+           cov[2+nagesqr+Tage[k]]=nbcode[Tvar[Tage[k]]][codtabm(ij,k)]*cov[2];
+         } else{
+           cov[2+nagesqr+Tage[k]]=Tqresult[nres][k];
+         }
+         /* printf("hBxij Age combi=%d k=%d  Tage[%d]=V%d Tqresult[%d][%d]=%f\n",ij,k,k,Tage[k],nres,k,Tqresult[nres][k]); */
+       }
+       for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++){ /* Useless because included in cptcovn */
          cov[2+nagesqr+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtabm(ij,k)]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtabm(ij,k)];
-       /* cov[2+nagesqr+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtabm(ij,Tvard[k][1])]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtabm(ij,Tvard[k][2])]; */
+       }
        /*printf("hxi cptcov=%d cptcode=%d\n",cptcov,cptcode);*/
        /*printf("h=%d d=%d age=%f cov=%f\n",h,d,age,cov[2]);*/
        /* Careful transposed matrix */
        /* age is in cov[2], prevacurrent at beginning of transition. */
        /* out=matprod2(newm, bmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate,prevacurrent, dnewm, doldm, dsavm,ij),\ */
- Line 3268  double ***hbxij(double ***po, int nhstep
+ Line 3323  double ***hbxij(double ***po, int nhstep
      for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)
        for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
          po[i][j][h]=newm[i][j];
-         /*if(h==nhstepm) printf("po[%d][%d][%d]=%f ",i,j,h,po[i][j][h]);*/
+         /* if(h==nhstepm) */
+         /*   printf("po[%d][%d][%d]=%f ",i,j,h,po[i][j][h]); */
        }
-     /*printf("h=%d ",h);*/
+     /* printf("h=%d %.1f ",h, agexact); */
    } /* end h */
-   /*     printf("\n H=%d \n",h); */
+   /* printf("\n H=%d nhs=%d \n",h, nhstepm); */
    return po;
  }
- Line 3727  double funcone( double *x)
+ Line 3783  double funcone( double *x)
        s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
        s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
        /* if(s2==-1){ */
-       /*        printf(" s1=%d, s2=%d i=%d \n", s1, s2, i); */
+       /*        printf(" ERROR s1=%d, s2=%d i=%d \n", s1, s2, i); */
        /*        /\* exit(1); *\/ */
        /* } */
        bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm;
- Line 3760  double funcone( double *x)
+ Line 3816  double funcone( double *x)
          fprintf(ficresilk,"%09ld %6.1f %6.1f %6d %2d %2d %2d %2d %3d %15.6f %8.4f %8.3f\
   %11.6f %11.6f %11.6f ", \
                  num[i], agebegin, ageend, i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],weight[i]*gipmx/gsw,
-*weight[i]*lli,out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]);
+*weight[i]*lli,(s2==-1? -1: out[s1][s2]),(s2==-1? -1: savm[s1][s2]));
          for(k=1,llt=0.,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++){
            llt +=ll[k]*gipmx/gsw;
            fprintf(ficresilk," %10.6f",-ll[k]*gipmx/gsw);
- Line 3813  void likelione(FILE *ficres,double p[],
+ Line 3869  void likelione(FILE *ficres,double p[],
      else if(mle >=1)
        fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>File of contributions to the likelihood computed with optimized parameters mle = %d.",mle);
      fprintf(fichtm," You should at least run with mle >= 1 to get starting values corresponding to the optimized parameters in order to visualize the real contribution of each individual/wave: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n",subdirf(fileresilk),subdirf(fileresilk));
+     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>Equation of the model: <b>model=1+age+%s</b><br>\n",model);
      for (k=1; k<= nlstate ; k++) {
        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Probability p<sub>%dj</sub> by origin %d and destination j. Dot's sizes are related to corresponding weight: <a href=\"%s-p%dj.png\">%s-p%dj.png</a><br> \
- Line 4280  void pstamp(FILE *fichier)
+ Line 4336  void pstamp(FILE *fichier)
    fprintf(fichier,"# %s.%s\n#IMaCh version %s, %s\n#%s\n# %s", optionfilefiname,optionfilext,version,copyright, fullversion, strstart);
  }
- int linreg(int ifi, int ila, int *no, const double x[], const double y[], double* a, double* b, double* r, double* sa, double * sb) {
-   /* y=a+bx regression */
-   double   sumx = 0.0;                        /* sum of x                      */
-   double   sumx2 = 0.0;                       /* sum of x**2                   */
-   double   sumxy = 0.0;                       /* sum of x * y                  */
-   double   sumy = 0.0;                        /* sum of y                      */
-   double   sumy2 = 0.0;                       /* sum of y**2                   */
-   double   sume2; /* sum of square or residuals */
-   double yhat;
-   double denom=0;
-   int i;
-   int ne=*no;
-   for ( i=ifi, ne=0;i<=ila;i++) {
-     if(!isfinite(x[i]) || !isfinite(y[i])){
-       /* printf(" x[%d]=%f, y[%d]=%f\n",i,x[i],i,y[i]); */
-       continue;
-     }
-     ne=ne+1;
-     sumx  += x[i];
-     sumx2 += x[i]*x[i];
-     sumxy += x[i] * y[i];
-     sumy  += y[i];
-     sumy2 += y[i]*y[i];
-     denom = (ne * sumx2 - sumx*sumx);
-     /* printf("ne=%d, i=%d,x[%d]=%f, y[%d]=%f sumx=%f, sumx2=%f, sumxy=%f, sumy=%f, sumy2=%f, denom=%f\n",ne,i,i,x[i],i,y[i], sumx, sumx2,sumxy, sumy, sumy2,denom); */
-   }
-   denom = (ne * sumx2 - sumx*sumx);
-   if (denom == 0) {
-     // vertical, slope m is infinity
-     *b = INFINITY;
-     *a = 0;
-     if (r) *r = 0;
-     return 1;
-   }
-   *b = (ne * sumxy  -  sumx * sumy) / denom;
-   *a = (sumy * sumx2  -  sumx * sumxy) / denom;
-   if (r!=NULL) {
-     *r = (sumxy - sumx * sumy / ne) /          /* compute correlation coeff     */
-       sqrt((sumx2 - sumx*sumx/ne) *
-            (sumy2 - sumy*sumy/ne));
-   }
-   *no=ne;
-   for ( i=ifi, ne=0;i<=ila;i++) {
-     if(!isfinite(x[i]) || !isfinite(y[i])){
-       /* printf(" x[%d]=%f, y[%d]=%f\n",i,x[i],i,y[i]); */
-       continue;
-     }
-     ne=ne+1;
-     yhat = y[i] - *a -*b* x[i];
-     sume2  += yhat * yhat ;
-     denom = (ne * sumx2 - sumx*sumx);
-     /* printf("ne=%d, i=%d,x[%d]=%f, y[%d]=%f sumx=%f, sumx2=%f, sumxy=%f, sumy=%f, sumy2=%f, denom=%f\n",ne,i,i,x[i],i,y[i], sumx, sumx2,sumxy, sumy, sumy2,denom); */
-   }
-   *sb = sqrt(sume2/(ne-2)/(sumx2 - sumx * sumx /ne));
-   *sa= *sb * sqrt(sumx2/ne);
-   return 0;
- }
  /************ Frequencies ********************/
  void  freqsummary(char fileres[], double p[], double pstart[], int iagemin, int iagemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, \
- Line 4356  void  freqsummary(char fileres[], double
+ Line 4349  void  freqsummary(char fileres[], double
    int mi; /* Effective wave */
    int first;
    double ***freq; /* Frequencies */
-   double *x, *y, a,b,r, sa, sb; /* for regression, y=b+m*x and r is the correlation coefficient */
+   double *x, *y, a=0.,b=0.,r=1., sa=0., sb=0.; /* for regression, y=b+m*x and r is the correlation coefficient */
-   int no;
+   int no=0, linreg(int ifi, int ila, int *no, const double x[], const double y[], double* a, double* b, double* r, double* sa, double * sb);
    double *meanq;
    double **meanqt;
    double *pp, **prop, *posprop, *pospropt;
- Line 4795  Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d La
+ Line 4788  Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d La
                      y[iage]= log(freq[i][k][iage]/freq[i][i][iage]);
                      /* printf("i=%d, k=%d, s1=%d, j1=%d, jj=%d, y[%d]=%f\n",i,k,s1,j1,jj, iage, y[iage]); */
                    }
+                   /* Some are not finite, but linreg will ignore these ages */
+                   no=0;
                    linreg(iagemin,iagemax,&no,x,y,&a,&b,&r, &sa, &sb ); /* y= a+b*x with standard errors */
                    pstart[s1]=b;
                    pstart[s1-1]=a;
- Line 4898  Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d La
+ Line 4893  Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d La
    /* End of freqsummary */
  }
+ /* Simple linear regression */
+ int linreg(int ifi, int ila, int *no, const double x[], const double y[], double* a, double* b, double* r, double* sa, double * sb) {
+   /* y=a+bx regression */
+   double   sumx = 0.0;                        /* sum of x                      */
+   double   sumx2 = 0.0;                       /* sum of x**2                   */
+   double   sumxy = 0.0;                       /* sum of x * y                  */
+   double   sumy = 0.0;                        /* sum of y                      */
+   double   sumy2 = 0.0;                       /* sum of y**2                   */
+   double   sume2 = 0.0;                       /* sum of square or residuals */
+   double yhat;
+   double denom=0;
+   int i;
+   int ne=*no;
+   for ( i=ifi, ne=0;i<=ila;i++) {
+     if(!isfinite(x[i]) || !isfinite(y[i])){
+       /* printf(" x[%d]=%f, y[%d]=%f\n",i,x[i],i,y[i]); */
+       continue;
+     }
+     ne=ne+1;
+     sumx  += x[i];
+     sumx2 += x[i]*x[i];
+     sumxy += x[i] * y[i];
+     sumy  += y[i];
+     sumy2 += y[i]*y[i];
+     denom = (ne * sumx2 - sumx*sumx);
+     /* printf("ne=%d, i=%d,x[%d]=%f, y[%d]=%f sumx=%f, sumx2=%f, sumxy=%f, sumy=%f, sumy2=%f, denom=%f\n",ne,i,i,x[i],i,y[i], sumx, sumx2,sumxy, sumy, sumy2,denom); */
+   }
+   denom = (ne * sumx2 - sumx*sumx);
+   if (denom == 0) {
+     // vertical, slope m is infinity
+     *b = INFINITY;
+     *a = 0;
+     if (r) *r = 0;
+     return 1;
+   }
+   *b = (ne * sumxy  -  sumx * sumy) / denom;
+   *a = (sumy * sumx2  -  sumx * sumxy) / denom;
+   if (r!=NULL) {
+     *r = (sumxy - sumx * sumy / ne) /          /* compute correlation coeff     */
+       sqrt((sumx2 - sumx*sumx/ne) *
+            (sumy2 - sumy*sumy/ne));
+   }
+   *no=ne;
+   for ( i=ifi, ne=0;i<=ila;i++) {
+     if(!isfinite(x[i]) || !isfinite(y[i])){
+       /* printf(" x[%d]=%f, y[%d]=%f\n",i,x[i],i,y[i]); */
+       continue;
+     }
+     ne=ne+1;
+     yhat = y[i] - *a -*b* x[i];
+     sume2  += yhat * yhat ;
+     denom = (ne * sumx2 - sumx*sumx);
+     /* printf("ne=%d, i=%d,x[%d]=%f, y[%d]=%f sumx=%f, sumx2=%f, sumxy=%f, sumy=%f, sumy2=%f, denom=%f\n",ne,i,i,x[i],i,y[i], sumx, sumx2,sumxy, sumy, sumy2,denom); */
+   }
+   *sb = sqrt(sume2/(double)(ne-2)/(sumx2 - sumx * sumx /(double)ne));
+   *sa= *sb * sqrt(sumx2/ne);
+   return 0;
+ }
  /************ Prevalence ********************/
  void prevalence(double ***probs, double agemin, double agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, double dateprev1,double dateprev2, int firstpass, int lastpass)
  {
- Line 5430  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int
+ Line 5491  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int
    /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm.
       nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim
       nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin.
-      Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size
+      Look at hpijx to understand the reason which relies in memory size consideration
       and note for a fixed period like estepm months */
    /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
       survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
- Line 5661  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int
+ Line 5722  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int
            /* if((int)age==70)printf("i=%2d,j=%2d,h=%2d,age=%3d,%9.4f,%9.4f,%9.4f\n",i,j,h,(int)age,p3mat[i][j][h],hf,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
          }
+     /* Standard deviation of expectancies ij */
      fprintf(ficresstdeij,"%3.0f",age );
      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
        eip=0.;
- Line 5676  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int
+ Line 5738  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int
      }
      fprintf(ficresstdeij,"\n");
+     /* Variance of expectancies ij */
      fprintf(ficrescveij,"%3.0f",age );
      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
- Line 6029  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int
+ Line 6092  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int
   }  /* end varevsij */
  /************ Variance of prevlim ******************/
-  void varprevlim(char fileres[], double **varpl, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int *ncvyearp, int ij, char strstart[], int nres)
+  void varprevlim(char fileresvpl[], FILE *ficresvpl, double **varpl, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int *ncvyearp, int ij, char strstart[], int nres)
  {
    /* Variance of prevalence limit  for each state ij using current parameters x[] and estimates of neighbourhood give by delti*/
    /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double **savm,double ftolpl);*/
-   double **dnewm,**doldm;
+   double **dnewmpar,**doldm;
    int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm;
    double *xp;
    double *gp, *gm;
- Line 6053  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int
+ Line 6116  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int
    fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
    xp=vector(1,npar);
-   dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
+   dnewmpar=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
    doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
    hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
- Line 6123  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int
+ Line 6186  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int
      for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
        varpl[i][(int)age] =0.;
      if((int)age==79 ||(int)age== 80  ||(int)age== 81){
-     matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
+     matprod2(dnewmpar,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
-     matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);
+     matprod2(doldm,dnewmpar,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);
      }else{
-     matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
+     matprod2(dnewmpar,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
-     matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);
+     matprod2(doldm,dnewmpar,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);
      }
      for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
        varpl[i][(int)age] = doldm[i][i]; /* Covariances are useless */
- Line 6148  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int
+ Line 6211  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int
    free_vector(xp,1,npar);
    free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
-   free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
+   free_matrix(dnewmpar,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
  }
- /************ Variance of one-step probabilities  ******************/
- void varprob(char optionfilefiname[], double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, double bage, double fage, int ij, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax, char strstart[])
-  {
-    int i, j=0,  k1, l1, tj;
-    int k2, l2, j1,  z1;
-    int k=0, l;
-    int first=1, first1, first2;
-    double cv12, mu1, mu2, lc1, lc2, v12, v21, v11, v22,v1,v2, c12, tnalp;
-    double **dnewm,**doldm;
-    double *xp;
-    double *gp, *gm;
-    double **gradg, **trgradg;
-    double **mu;
-    double age, cov[NCOVMAX+1];
-    double std=2.0; /* Number of standard deviation wide of confidence ellipsoids */
-    int theta;
-    char fileresprob[FILENAMELENGTH];
-    char fileresprobcov[FILENAMELENGTH];
-    char fileresprobcor[FILENAMELENGTH];
-    double ***varpij;
-    strcpy(fileresprob,"PROB_");
+ /************ Variance of backprevalence limit ******************/
-    strcat(fileresprob,fileres);
+  void varbrevlim(char fileresvbl[], FILE  *ficresvbl, double **varbpl, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **bprlim, double ftolpl, int mobilavproj, int *ncvyearp, int ij, char strstart[], int nres)
-    if((ficresprob=fopen(fileresprob,"w"))==NULL) {
+ {
-      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
+   /* Variance of backward prevalence limit  for each state ij using current parameters x[] and estimates of neighbourhood give by delti*/
-      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
+   /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double **savm,double ftolpl);*/
-    }
-    strcpy(fileresprobcov,"PROBCOV_");
-    strcat(fileresprobcov,fileresu);
-    if((ficresprobcov=fopen(fileresprobcov,"w"))==NULL) {
-      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
-      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
-    }
-    strcpy(fileresprobcor,"PROBCOR_");
-    strcat(fileresprobcor,fileresu);
-    if((ficresprobcor=fopen(fileresprobcor,"w"))==NULL) {
-      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
-      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
-    }
-    printf("Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
-    fprintf(ficlog,"Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
-    printf("Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
-    fprintf(ficlog,"Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
-    printf("and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
-    fprintf(ficlog,"and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
-    pstamp(ficresprob);
-    fprintf(ficresprob,"#One-step probabilities and stand. devi in ()\n");
-    fprintf(ficresprob,"# Age");
-    pstamp(ficresprobcov);
-    fprintf(ficresprobcov,"#One-step probabilities and covariance matrix\n");
-    fprintf(ficresprobcov,"# Age");
-    pstamp(ficresprobcor);
-    fprintf(ficresprobcor,"#One-step probabilities and correlation matrix\n");
-    fprintf(ficresprobcor,"# Age");
+   double **dnewmpar,**doldm;
+   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm;
+   double *xp;
+   double *gp, *gm;
+   double **gradg, **trgradg;
+   double **mgm, **mgp;
+   double age,agelim;
+   int theta;
+   pstamp(ficresvbl);
+   fprintf(ficresvbl,"# Standard deviation of back (stable) prevalences \n");
+   fprintf(ficresvbl,"# Age ");
+   if(nresult >=1)
+     fprintf(ficresvbl," Result# ");
+   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+       fprintf(ficresvbl," %1d-%1d",i,i);
+   fprintf(ficresvbl,"\n");
-    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+   xp=vector(1,npar);
+   dnewmpar=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
+   doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
+   hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
+   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */
+   agelim = AGEINF;
+   for (age=fage; age>=bage; age --){ /* If stepm=6 months */
+     nhstepm=(int) rint((age-agelim)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */
+     if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;
+     nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */
+     gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);
+     mgp=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);
+     mgm=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);
+     gp=vector(1,nlstate);
+     gm=vector(1,nlstate);
+     for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
+       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */
+         xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
+       }
+       if(mobilavproj > 0 )
+         bprevalim(bprlim, mobaverage,nlstate,xp,age,ftolpl,ncvyearp,ij,nres);
+       else
+         bprevalim(bprlim, mobaverage,nlstate,xp,age,ftolpl,ncvyearp,ij,nres);
+       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++){
+         gp[i] = bprlim[i][i];
+         mgp[theta][i] = bprlim[i][i];
+       }
+      for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */
+         xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
+        if(mobilavproj > 0 )
+         bprevalim(bprlim, mobaverage,nlstate,xp,age,ftolpl,ncvyearp,ij,nres);
+        else
+         bprevalim(bprlim, mobaverage,nlstate,xp,age,ftolpl,ncvyearp,ij,nres);
+       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++){
+         gm[i] = bprlim[i][i];
+         mgm[theta][i] = bprlim[i][i];
+       }
+       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
+         gradg[theta][i]= (gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];
+       /* gradg[theta][2]= -gradg[theta][1]; */ /* For testing if nlstate=2 */
+     } /* End theta */
+     trgradg =matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
+     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
+       for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
+         trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
+     /* if((int)age==79 ||(int)age== 80 ||(int)age== 81 ){ */
+     /*   printf("\nmgm mgp %d ",(int)age); */
+     /*   for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){ */
+     /*  printf(" %d ",j); */
+     /*  for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++) */
+     /*    printf(" %d %lf %lf",theta,mgm[theta][j],mgp[theta][j]); */
+     /*  printf("\n "); */
+     /*   } */
+     /* } */
+     /* if((int)age==79 ||(int)age== 80 ||(int)age== 81 ){ */
+     /*   printf("\n gradg %d ",(int)age); */
+     /*   for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){ */
+     /*  printf("%d ",j); */
+     /*  for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++) */
+     /*    printf("%d %lf ",theta,gradg[theta][j]); */
+     /*  printf("\n "); */
+     /*   } */
+     /* } */
+     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
+       varbpl[i][(int)age] =0.;
+     if((int)age==79 ||(int)age== 80  ||(int)age== 81){
+     matprod2(dnewmpar,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
+     matprod2(doldm,dnewmpar,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);
+     }else{
+     matprod2(dnewmpar,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
+     matprod2(doldm,dnewmpar,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);
+     }
+     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
+       varbpl[i][(int)age] = doldm[i][i]; /* Covariances are useless */
+     fprintf(ficresvbl,"%.0f ",age );
+     if(nresult >=1)
+       fprintf(ficresvbl,"%d ",nres );
+     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+       fprintf(ficresvbl," %.5f (%.5f)",bprlim[i][i],sqrt(varbpl[i][(int)age]));
+     fprintf(ficresvbl,"\n");
+     free_vector(gp,1,nlstate);
+     free_vector(gm,1,nlstate);
+     free_matrix(mgm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
+     free_matrix(mgp,1,npar,1,nlstate);
+     free_matrix(gradg,1,npar,1,nlstate);
+     free_matrix(trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar);
+   } /* End age */
+   free_vector(xp,1,npar);
+   free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
+   free_matrix(dnewmpar,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
+ }
+ /************ Variance of one-step probabilities  ******************/
+ void varprob(char optionfilefiname[], double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, double bage, double fage, int ij, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax, char strstart[])
+  {
+    int i, j=0,  k1, l1, tj;
+    int k2, l2, j1,  z1;
+    int k=0, l;
+    int first=1, first1, first2;
+    double cv12, mu1, mu2, lc1, lc2, v12, v21, v11, v22,v1,v2, c12, tnalp;
+    double **dnewm,**doldm;
+    double *xp;
+    double *gp, *gm;
+    double **gradg, **trgradg;
+    double **mu;
+    double age, cov[NCOVMAX+1];
+    double std=2.0; /* Number of standard deviation wide of confidence ellipsoids */
+    int theta;
+    char fileresprob[FILENAMELENGTH];
+    char fileresprobcov[FILENAMELENGTH];
+    char fileresprobcor[FILENAMELENGTH];
+    double ***varpij;
+    strcpy(fileresprob,"PROB_");
+    strcat(fileresprob,fileres);
+    if((ficresprob=fopen(fileresprob,"w"))==NULL) {
+      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
+      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
+    }
+    strcpy(fileresprobcov,"PROBCOV_");
+    strcat(fileresprobcov,fileresu);
+    if((ficresprobcov=fopen(fileresprobcov,"w"))==NULL) {
+      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
+      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
+    }
+    strcpy(fileresprobcor,"PROBCOR_");
+    strcat(fileresprobcor,fileresu);
+    if((ficresprobcor=fopen(fileresprobcor,"w"))==NULL) {
+      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
+      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
+    }
+    printf("Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
+    fprintf(ficlog,"Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
+    printf("Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
+    fprintf(ficlog,"Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
+    printf("and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
+    fprintf(ficlog,"and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
+    pstamp(ficresprob);
+    fprintf(ficresprob,"#One-step probabilities and stand. devi in ()\n");
+    fprintf(ficresprob,"# Age");
+    pstamp(ficresprobcov);
+    fprintf(ficresprobcov,"#One-step probabilities and covariance matrix\n");
+    fprintf(ficresprobcov,"# Age");
+    pstamp(ficresprobcor);
+    fprintf(ficresprobcor,"#One-step probabilities and correlation matrix\n");
+    fprintf(ficresprobcor,"# Age");
+    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
       for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
         fprintf(ficresprob," p%1d-%1d (SE)",i,j);
         fprintf(ficresprobcov," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);
- Line 6494  void printinghtml(char fileresu[], char
+ Line 6682  void printinghtml(char fileresu[], char
                    int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[],\
                    int imx,int jmin, int jmax, double jmeanint,char rfileres[],\
                    int popforecast, int mobilav, int prevfcast, int mobilavproj, int backcast, int estepm , \
-                   double jprev1, double mprev1,double anprev1, double dateprev1, \
+                   double jprev1, double mprev1,double anprev1, double dateprev1, double dateproj1, double dateback1, \
-                   double jprev2, double mprev2,double anprev2, double dateprev2){
+                   double jprev2, double mprev2,double anprev2, double dateprev2, double dateproj2, double dateback2){
    int jj1, k1, i1, cpt, k4, nres;
     fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><a href='#firstorder'>Result files (first order: no variance)</a>\n \
- Line 6649  divided by h: <sub>h</sub>P<sub>ij</sub>
+ Line 6837  divided by h: <sub>h</sub>P<sub>ij</sub>
       if(prevfcast==1){
         /* Projection of prevalence up to period (stable) prevalence in each health state */
         for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++){
-          fprintf(fichtm,"<br>\n- Projection of cross-sectional prevalence (estimated with cases observed from %.1f to %.1f and mobil_average=%d) up to period (stable) prevalence in state %d. Or probability to be in state %d being in state (1 to %d) at different ages. <a href=\"%s_%d-%d-%d.svg\">%s_%d-%d-%d.svg</a><br> \
+          fprintf(fichtm,"<br>\n- Projection of cross-sectional prevalence (estimated with cases observed from %.1f to %.1f and mobil_average=%d), from year %.1f up to year %.1f tending to period (stable) prevalence in state %d. Or probability to be in state %d being in an observed weighted state (from 1 to %d). <a href=\"%s_%d-%d-%d.svg\">%s_%d-%d-%d.svg</a><br> \
- <img src=\"%s_%d-%d-%d.svg\">", dateprev1, dateprev2, mobilavproj, cpt, cpt, nlstate, subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PROJ_"),cpt,k1,nres,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PROJ_"),cpt,k1,nres,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PROJ_"),cpt,k1,nres);
+ <img src=\"%s_%d-%d-%d.svg\">", dateprev1, dateprev2, mobilavproj, dateproj1, dateproj2, cpt, cpt, nlstate, subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PROJ_"),cpt,k1,nres,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PROJ_"),cpt,k1,nres,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PROJ_"),cpt,k1,nres);
+        }
+      }
+      if(backcast==1){
+       /* Back projection of prevalence up to stable (mixed) back-prevalence in each health state */
+        for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++){
+          fprintf(fichtm,"<br>\n- Back projection of cross-sectional prevalence (estimated with cases observed from %.1f to %.1f and mobil_average=%d), \
+  from year %.1f up to year %.1f (probably close to stable [mixed] back prevalence in state %d (randomness in cross-sectional prevalence is not taken into \
+  account but can visually be appreciated). Or probability to have been in an state %d, knowing that the person was in either state (1 or %d) \
+ with weights corresponding to observed prevalence at different ages. <a href=\"%s_%d-%d-%d.svg\">%s_%d-%d-%d.svg</a><br> \
+  <img src=\"%s_%d-%d-%d.svg\">", dateprev1, dateprev2, mobilavproj, dateback1, dateback2, cpt, cpt, nlstate, subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PROJB_"),cpt,k1,nres,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PROJB_"),cpt,k1,nres,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PROJB_"),cpt,k1,nres);
         }
       }
- Line 6756  true period expectancies (those weighted
+ Line 6954  true period expectancies (those weighted
  }
  /******************* Gnuplot file **************/
-     void printinggnuplot(char fileresu[], char optionfilefiname[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double fage , int prevfcast, int backcast, char pathc[], double p[], int offyear){
+ void printinggnuplot(char fileresu[], char optionfilefiname[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double bage, double fage , int prevfcast, int backcast, char pathc[], double p[], int offyear, int offbyear){
    char dirfileres[132],optfileres[132];
    char gplotcondition[132], gplotlabel[132];
- Line 6765  true period expectancies (those weighted
+ Line 6963  true period expectancies (those weighted
    int ng=0;
    int vpopbased;
    int ioffset; /* variable offset for columns */
+   int iyearc=1; /* variable column for year of projection  */
+   int iagec=1; /* variable column for age of projection  */
    int nres=0; /* Index of resultline */
    int istart=1; /* For starting graphs in projections */
- Line 6778  true period expectancies (those weighted
+ Line 6978  true period expectancies (those weighted
    /*#endif */
    m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
+   /* diagram of the model */
+   fprintf(ficgp,"\n#Diagram of the model \n");
+   fprintf(ficgp,"\ndelta=0.03;delta2=0.07;unset arrow;\n");
+   fprintf(ficgp,"yoff=(%d > 2? 0:1);\n",nlstate);
+   fprintf(ficgp,"\n#Peripheral arrows\nset for [i=1:%d] for [j=1:%d] arrow i*10+j from cos(pi*((1-(%d/2)*2./%d)/2+(i-1)*2./%d))-(i!=j?(i-j)/abs(i-j)*delta:0), yoff +sin(pi*((1-(%d/2)*2./%d)/2+(i-1)*2./%d)) + (i!=j?(i-j)/abs(i-j)*delta:0) rto -0.95*(cos(pi*((1-(%d/2)*2./%d)/2+(i-1)*2./%d))+(i!=j?(i-j)/abs(i-j)*delta:0) - cos(pi*((1-(%d/2)*2./%d)/2+(j-1)*2./%d)) + (i!=j?(i-j)/abs(i-j)*delta2:0)), -0.95*(sin(pi*((1-(%d/2)*2./%d)/2+(i-1)*2./%d)) + (i!=j?(i-j)/abs(i-j)*delta:0) - sin(pi*((1-(%d/2)*2./%d)/2+(j-1)*2./%d))+( i!=j?(i-j)/abs(i-j)*delta2:0)) ls (i < j? 1:2)\n",nlstate,nlstate,nlstate,nlstate,nlstate,nlstate,nlstate,nlstate,nlstate,nlstate,nlstate,nlstate,nlstate,nlstate,nlstate,nlstate,nlstate,nlstate,nlstate,nlstate);
+   fprintf(ficgp,"\n#Centripete arrows (turning in other direction (1-i) instead of (i-1)) \nset for [i=1:%d] arrow (%d+1)*10+i from cos(pi*((1-(%d/2)*2./%d)/2+(1-i)*2./%d))-(i!=j?(i-j)/abs(i-j)*delta:0), yoff +sin(pi*((1-(%d/2)*2./%d)/2+(1-i)*2./%d)) + (i!=j?(i-j)/abs(i-j)*delta:0) rto -0.80*(cos(pi*((1-(%d/2)*2./%d)/2+(1-i)*2./%d))+(i!=j?(i-j)/abs(i-j)*delta:0)  ), -0.80*(sin(pi*((1-(%d/2)*2./%d)/2+(1-i)*2./%d)) + (i!=j?(i-j)/abs(i-j)*delta:0) + yoff ) ls 4\n",nlstate,nlstate,nlstate,nlstate,nlstate,nlstate,nlstate,nlstate,nlstate,nlstate,nlstate,nlstate,nlstate,nlstate);
+   fprintf(ficgp,"\n#show arrow\nunset label\n");
+   fprintf(ficgp,"\n#States labels, starting from 2 (2-i) instead of (1-i), was (i-1)\nset for [i=1:%d] label i sprintf(\"State %%d\",i) center at cos(pi*((1-(%d/2)*2./%d)/2+(2-i)*2./%d)), yoff+sin(pi*((1-(%d/2)*2./%d)/2+(2-i)*2./%d)) font \"helvetica, 16\" tc rgbcolor \"blue\"\n",nlstate,nlstate,nlstate,nlstate,nlstate,nlstate,nlstate);
+   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label %d+1 sprintf(\"State %%d\",%d+1) center at 0.,0.  font \"helvetica, 16\" tc rgbcolor \"red\"\n",nlstate,nlstate);
+   fprintf(ficgp,"\n#show label\nunset border;unset xtics; unset ytics;\n");
+   fprintf(ficgp,"\n\nset ter svg size 640, 480;set out \"%s_.svg\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"D_"));
+   fprintf(ficgp,"unset log y; plot [-1.2:1.2][yoff-1.2:1.2] 1/0 not; set out;reset;\n");
    /* Contribution to likelihood */
    /* Plot the probability implied in the likelihood */
    fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Contributions to the Likelihood, mle >=1. For mle=4 no interpolation, pure matrix products.\n#\n");
- Line 6847  true period expectancies (those weighted
+ Line 7061  true period expectancies (those weighted
          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s_%d-%d-%d.svg\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"V_"),cpt,k1,nres);
          fprintf(ficgp,"\n#set out \"V_%s_%d-%d-%d.svg\" \n",optionfilefiname,cpt,k1,nres);
-         fprintf(ficgp,"set label \"Alive state %d %s\" at graph 0.98,0.5 center rotate font \"Helvetica,12\"\n",cpt,gplotlabel);
+         /* fprintf(ficgp,"set label \"Alive state %d %s\" at graph 0.98,0.5 center rotate font \"Helvetica,12\"\n",cpt,gplotlabel); */
+         fprintf(ficgp,"set title \"Alive state %d %s\" font \"Helvetica,12\"\n",cpt,gplotlabel);
          fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nset ter svg size 640, 480\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2==%d ? $3:1/0) \"%%lf %%lf",ageminpar,fage,subdirf2(fileresu,"VPL_"),nres-1,nres-1,nres);
          /* fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nset ter svg size 640, 480\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2==%d ? $3:1/0) \"%%lf %%lf",ageminpar,fage,subdirf2(fileresu,"VPL_"),k1-1,k1-1,nres); */
        /* k1-1 error should be nres-1*/
- Line 6869  true period expectancies (those weighted
+ Line 7084  true period expectancies (those weighted
          fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l lt 1,\"%s\" u 1:((",subdirf2(fileresu,"P_"));
          if(cptcoveff ==0){
-           fprintf(ficgp,"$%d)) t 'Observed prevalence in state %d' with line lt 3",      2+(cpt-1),  cpt );
+           fprintf(ficgp,"$%d)) t 'Observed prevalence in state %d' with line lt 3",      2+3*(cpt-1),  cpt );
          }else{
            kl=0;
            for (k=1; k<=cptcoveff; k++){    /* For each combination of covariate  */
- Line 6920  true period expectancies (those weighted
+ Line 7135  true period expectancies (those weighted
                }
              } /* end covariate */
            } /* end if no covariate */
+           if(backcast == 1){
+             fprintf(ficgp,", \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2==%d ? $3:1/0) \"%%lf %%lf",subdirf2(fileresu,"VBL_"),nres-1,nres-1,nres);
+             /* k1-1 error should be nres-1*/
+             for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
+               if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
+               else        fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
+             }
+             fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"Backward (stable) prevalence\" w l lt 6 dt 3,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2==%d ? $3+1.96*$4 : 1/0) \"%%lf %%lf",subdirf2(fileresu,"VBL_"),nres-1,nres-1,nres);
+             for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
+               if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
+               else fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
+             }
+             fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"95%% CI\" w l lt 4,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2==%d ? $3-1.96*$4 : 1/0) \"%%lf %%lf",subdirf2(fileresu,"VBL_"),nres-1,nres-1,nres);
+             for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
+               if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," %%lf (%%lf)");
+               else fprintf(ficgp," %%*lf (%%*lf)");
+             }
+             fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l lt 4");
+           } /* end if backprojcast */
          } /* end if backcast */
-         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out ;unset label;\n");
+         /* fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out ;unset label;\n"); */
+         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out ;unset title;\n");
        } /* nres */
      } /* k1 */
    } /* cpt */
- Line 7213  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
+ Line 7448  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
      for(nres=1; nres <= nresult; nres++){ /* For each resultline */
        if(m != 1 && TKresult[nres]!= k1)
          continue;
-       for (cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate ; cpt ++) { /* For each life ending state */
+       for (cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate ; cpt ++) { /* For each life origin state */
          strcpy(gplotlabel,"(");
          fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n#\n#CV Back preval stable (period): 'pijb' files, covariatecombination#=%d state=%d",k1, cpt);
          for (k=1; k<=cptcoveff; k++){    /* For each covariate and each value */
- Line 7237  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
+ Line 7472  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
          }
          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s_%d-%d-%d.svg\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PB_"),cpt,k1,nres);
-         fprintf(ficgp,"set label \"Ending alive state %d %s\" at graph 0.98,0.5 center rotate font \"Helvetica,12\"\n",cpt,gplotlabel);
+         fprintf(ficgp,"set label \"Origin alive state %d %s\" at graph 0.98,0.5 center rotate font \"Helvetica,12\"\n",cpt,gplotlabel);
          fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \n\
  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\nplot [%.f:%.f]  ", ageminpar, agemaxpar);
          k=3; /* Offset */
-         for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++){ /* State of origin */
+         for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++){ /* State of arrival */
            if(i==1)
              fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\"",subdirf2(fileresu,"PIJB_"));
            else
- Line 7254  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
+ Line 7489  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
            /* for (j=2; j<= nlstate ; j ++) */
            /*    fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+l+j-1); */
            /*    /\* fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+l+j-1); *\/ */
-           fprintf(ficgp,") t \"bprev(%d,%d)\" w l",i,cpt);
+           fprintf(ficgp,") t \"bprev(%d,%d)\" w l",cpt,i);
          } /* nlstate */
          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out; unset label;\n");
        } /* end cpt state*/
- Line 7319  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
+ Line 7554  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
              /*#  1    2        3   4   5  6    7  8   9   10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18 */
              fprintf(ficgp," u %d:(", ioffset);
              if(i==nlstate+1){
-               fprintf(ficgp," $%d/(1.-$%d)):5 t 'pw.%d' with line lc variable ",        \
+               fprintf(ficgp," $%d/(1.-$%d)):1 t 'pw.%d' with line lc variable ",        \
                        ioffset+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1),  ioffset+1+(i-1)+(nlstate+1)*nlstate,cpt );
                fprintf(ficgp,",\\\n '' ");
                fprintf(ficgp," u %d:(",ioffset);
-               fprintf(ficgp," (($5-$6) == %d ) ? $%d/(1.-$%d) : 1/0):5 with labels center not ", \
+               fprintf(ficgp," (($1-$2) == %d ) ? $%d/(1.-$%d) : 1/0):1 with labels center not ", \
                       offyear,                           \
-                       ioffset+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1),  ioffset+1+(i-1)+(nlstate+1)*nlstate,cpt );
+                       ioffset+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1),  ioffset+1+(i-1)+(nlstate+1)*nlstate );
              }else
                fprintf(ficgp," $%d/(1.-$%d)) t 'p%d%d' with line ",      \
                        ioffset+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1),  ioffset+1+(i-1)+(nlstate+1)*nlstate,i,cpt );
            }else{ /* more than 2 covariates */
-             if(cptcoveff ==1){
+             ioffset=2*cptcoveff+2; /* Age is in 4 or 6 or etc.*/
-               ioffset=4; /* Age is in 4 */
+             /*#  V1  = 1  V2 =  0 yearproj age p11 p21 p.1 p12 p22 p.2 p13 p23 p.3*/
-             }else{
+             /*#   1    2   3    4    5      6  7   8   9   10   11 12  13   14  15 */
-               ioffset=6; /* Age is in 6 */
+             iyearc=ioffset-1;
-               /*#  V1  = 1  V2 =  0 yearproj age p11 p21 p.1 p12 p22 p.2 p13 p23 p.3*/
+             iagec=ioffset;
-               /*#   1    2   3    4    5      6  7   8   9   10   11 12  13   14  15 */
-             }
              fprintf(ficgp," u %d:(",ioffset);
              kl=0;
              strcpy(gplotcondition,"(");
- Line 7358  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
+ Line 7591  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
              /*6+1+(i-1)+(nlstate+1)*nlstate; 6+1+(1-1) +(2+1)*2=13 */
              /* ''  u 6:(($1==1 && $2==0 && $3==2 && $4==0)? $9/(1.-$15) : 1/0):($5==2000? 3:2) t 'p.1' with line lc variable*/
              if(i==nlstate+1){
-               fprintf(ficgp,"%s ? $%d/(1.-$%d) : 1/0):5 t 'p.%d' with line lc variable", gplotcondition, \
+               fprintf(ficgp,"%s ? $%d/(1.-$%d) : 1/0):%d t 'p.%d' with line lc variable", gplotcondition, \
-                       ioffset+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1),  ioffset+1+(i-1)+(nlstate+1)*nlstate,cpt );
+                       ioffset+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1),  ioffset+1+(i-1)+(nlstate+1)*nlstate,iyearc, cpt );
                fprintf(ficgp,",\\\n '' ");
-               fprintf(ficgp," u %d:(",ioffset);
+               fprintf(ficgp," u %d:(",iagec);
-               fprintf(ficgp,"%s && (($5-$6) == %d ) ? $%d/(1.-$%d) : 1/0):5 with labels center not ", gplotcondition, \
+               fprintf(ficgp,"%s && (($%d-$%d) == %d ) ? $%d/(1.-$%d) : 1/0):%d with labels center not ", gplotcondition, \
-                      offyear,                           \
+                       iyearc, iagec, offyear,                           \
-                       ioffset+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1),  ioffset+1+(i-1)+(nlstate+1)*nlstate,cpt );
+                       ioffset+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1),  ioffset+1+(i-1)+(nlstate+1)*nlstate, iyearc );
  /*  '' u 6:(($1==1 && $2==0  && $3==2 && $4==0) && (($5-$6) == 1947) ? $10/(1.-$22) : 1/0):5 with labels center boxed not*/
              }else{
                fprintf(ficgp,"%s ? $%d/(1.-$%d) : 1/0) t 'p%d%d' with line ", gplotcondition, \
- Line 7377  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
+ Line 7610  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
      } /* end covariate */
    } /* End if prevfcast */
+   if(backcast==1){
+     /* Back projection from cross-sectional to stable (mixed) for each covariate */
+     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) /* For each covariate combination if any */
+     for(nres=1; nres <= nresult; nres++){ /* For each resultline */
+       if(m != 1 && TKresult[nres]!= k1)
+         continue;
+       for (cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate ; cpt ++) { /* For each life state */
+         strcpy(gplotlabel,"(");
+         fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n#\n#Back projection of prevalence to stable (mixed) back prevalence: 'BPROJ_' files, covariatecombination#=%d originstate=%d",k1, cpt);
+         for (k=1; k<=cptcoveff; k++){    /* For each correspondig covariate value  */
+           lv= decodtabm(k1,k,cptcoveff); /* Should be the covariate value corresponding to k1 combination and kth covariate */
+           /* decodtabm(1,1,4) = 1 because h=1  k= (1) 1  1  1 */
+           /* decodtabm(1,2,4) = 1 because h=1  k=  1 (1) 1  1 */
+           /* decodtabm(13,3,4)= 2 because h=13 k=  1  1 (2) 2 */
+           vlv= nbcode[Tvaraff[k]][lv];
+           fprintf(ficgp," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[k],vlv);
+           sprintf(gplotlabel+strlen(gplotlabel)," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[k],vlv);
+         }
+         for (k4=1; k4<= nsq; k4++){ /* For each selected (single) quantitative value */
+           fprintf(ficgp," V%d=%f ",Tvqresult[nres][k4],Tqresult[nres][k4]);
+           sprintf(gplotlabel+strlen(gplotlabel)," V%d=%f ",Tvqresult[nres][k4],Tqresult[nres][k4]);
+         }
+         strcpy(gplotlabel+strlen(gplotlabel),")");
+         fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n");
+         if(invalidvarcomb[k1]){
+           fprintf(ficgp,"#Combination (%d) ignored because no cases \n",k1);
+           continue;
+         }
+         fprintf(ficgp,"# hbijx=backprobability over h years, hb.jx is weighted by observed prev at destination state\n ");
+         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s_%d-%d-%d.svg\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PROJB_"),cpt,k1,nres);
+         fprintf(ficgp,"set label \"Origin alive state %d %s\" at graph 0.98,0.5 center rotate font \"Helvetica,12\"\n",cpt,gplotlabel);
+         fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Prevalence\" \n\
+ set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\nplot [%.f:%.f]  ", ageminpar, agemaxpar);
+         /* for (i=1; i<= nlstate+1 ; i ++){  /\* nlstate +1 p11 p21 p.1 *\/ */
+         istart=nlstate+1; /* Could be one if by state, but nlstate+1 is w.i projection only */
+         /*istart=1;*/ /* Could be one if by state, but nlstate+1 is w.i projection only */
+         for (i=istart; i<= nlstate+1 ; i ++){  /* nlstate +1 p11 p21 p.1 */
+           /*#  V1  = 1  V2 =  0 yearproj age p11 p21 p.1 p12 p22 p.2 p13 p23 p.3*/
+           /*#   1    2   3    4    5      6  7   8   9   10   11 12  13   14  15 */
+           /*# yearproj age p11 p21 p.1 p12 p22 p.2 p13 p23 p.3*/
+           /*#   1       2   3    4    5      6  7   8   9   10   11 12  13   14  15 */
+           if(i==istart){
+             fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\"",subdirf2(fileresu,"FB_"));
+           }else{
+             fprintf(ficgp,",\\\n '' ");
+           }
+           if(cptcoveff ==0){ /* No covariate */
+             ioffset=2; /* Age is in 2 */
+             /*# yearproj age p11 p21 p31 p.1 p12 p22 p32 p.2 p13 p23 p33 p.3 p14 p24 p34 p.4*/
+             /*#   1       2   3   4   5  6    7  8   9   10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18 */
+             /*# V1  = 1 yearproj age p11 p21 p31 p.1 p12 p22 p32 p.2 p13 p23 p33 p.3 p14 p24 p34 p.4*/
+             /*#  1    2        3   4   5  6    7  8   9   10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18 */
+             fprintf(ficgp," u %d:(", ioffset);
+             if(i==nlstate+1){
+               fprintf(ficgp," $%d/(1.-$%d)):1 t 'bw%d' with line lc variable ", \
+                       ioffset+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1),  ioffset+1+(i-1)+(nlstate+1)*nlstate,cpt );
+               fprintf(ficgp,",\\\n '' ");
+               fprintf(ficgp," u %d:(",ioffset);
+               fprintf(ficgp," (($1-$2) == %d ) ? $%d : 1/0):1 with labels center not ", \
+                      offbyear,                          \
+                       ioffset+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1) );
+             }else
+               fprintf(ficgp," $%d/(1.-$%d)) t 'b%d%d' with line ",      \
+                       ioffset+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1),  ioffset+1+(i-1)+(nlstate+1)*nlstate,cpt,i );
+           }else{ /* more than 2 covariates */
+             ioffset=2*cptcoveff+2; /* Age is in 4 or 6 or etc.*/
+             /*#  V1  = 1  V2 =  0 yearproj age p11 p21 p.1 p12 p22 p.2 p13 p23 p.3*/
+             /*#   1    2   3    4    5      6  7   8   9   10   11 12  13   14  15 */
+             iyearc=ioffset-1;
+             iagec=ioffset;
+             fprintf(ficgp," u %d:(",ioffset);
+             kl=0;
+             strcpy(gplotcondition,"(");
+             for (k=1; k<=cptcoveff; k++){    /* For each covariate writing the chain of conditions */
+               lv= decodtabm(k1,k,cptcoveff); /* Should be the covariate value corresponding to combination k1 and covariate k */
+               /* decodtabm(1,1,4) = 1 because h=1  k= (1) 1  1  1 */
+               /* decodtabm(1,2,4) = 1 because h=1  k=  1 (1) 1  1 */
+               /* decodtabm(13,3,4)= 2 because h=13 k=  1  1 (2) 2 */
+               vlv= nbcode[Tvaraff[k]][lv]; /* Value of the modality of Tvaraff[k] */
+               kl++;
+               sprintf(gplotcondition+strlen(gplotcondition),"$%d==%d && $%d==%d " ,kl,Tvaraff[k], kl+1, nbcode[Tvaraff[k]][lv]);
+               kl++;
+               if(k <cptcoveff && cptcoveff>1)
+                 sprintf(gplotcondition+strlen(gplotcondition)," && ");
+             }
+             strcpy(gplotcondition+strlen(gplotcondition),")");
+             /* kl=6+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1); /\* 6+(1-1)*(2+1)+1+(1-1)=7, 6+(2-1)(2+1)+1+(1-1)=10 *\/ */
+             /*6+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1)+(nlstate+1)*nlstate; 6+(1-1)*(2+1)+1+(1-1) +(2+1)*2=13 */
+             /*6+1+(i-1)+(nlstate+1)*nlstate; 6+1+(1-1) +(2+1)*2=13 */
+             /* ''  u 6:(($1==1 && $2==0 && $3==2 && $4==0)? $9/(1.-$15) : 1/0):($5==2000? 3:2) t 'p.1' with line lc variable*/
+             if(i==nlstate+1){
+               fprintf(ficgp,"%s ? $%d : 1/0):%d t 'bw%d' with line lc variable", gplotcondition, \
+                       ioffset+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1),iyearc,cpt );
+               fprintf(ficgp,",\\\n '' ");
+               fprintf(ficgp," u %d:(",iagec);
+               /* fprintf(ficgp,"%s && (($5-$6) == %d ) ? $%d/(1.-$%d) : 1/0):5 with labels center not ", gplotcondition, \ */
+               fprintf(ficgp,"%s && (($%d-$%d) == %d ) ? $%d : 1/0):%d with labels center not ", gplotcondition, \
+                       iyearc,iagec,offbyear,                            \
+                       ioffset+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1), iyearc );
+ /*  '' u 6:(($1==1 && $2==0  && $3==2 && $4==0) && (($5-$6) == 1947) ? $10/(1.-$22) : 1/0):5 with labels center boxed not*/
+             }else{
+               /* fprintf(ficgp,"%s ? $%d/(1.-$%d) : 1/0) t 'p%d%d' with line ", gplotcondition, \ */
+               fprintf(ficgp,"%s ? $%d : 1/0) t 'b%d%d' with line ", gplotcondition, \
+                       ioffset+(cpt-1)*(nlstate+1)+1+(i-1), cpt,i );
+             }
+           } /* end if covariate */
+         } /* nlstate */
+         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out; unset label;\n");
+       } /* end cpt state*/
+     } /* end covariate */
+   } /* End if backcast */
    /* 9eme writing MLE parameters */
    fprintf(ficgp,"\n##############\n#9eme MLE estimated parameters\n#############\n");
- Line 7422  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
+ Line 7770  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
          continue;
        fprintf(ficgp,"\n\n# Combination of dummy  k1=%d which is ",k1);
        strcpy(gplotlabel,"(");
-       sprintf(gplotlabel+strlen(gplotlabel)," Dummy combination %d ",k1);
+       /*sprintf(gplotlabel+strlen(gplotlabel)," Dummy combination %d ",k1);*/
        for (k=1; k<=cptcoveff; k++){    /* For each correspondig covariate value  */
          lv= decodtabm(k1,k,cptcoveff); /* Should be the covariate value corresponding to k1 combination and kth covariate */
          /* decodtabm(1,1,4) = 1 because h=1  k= (1) 1  1  1 */
- Line 7439  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
+ Line 7787  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
        strcpy(gplotlabel+strlen(gplotlabel),")");
        fprintf(ficgp,"\n#\n");
        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s_%d-%d-%d.svg\" ",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"PE_"),k1,ng,nres);
-       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%s\" at graph 0.98,0.5 center rotate font \"Helvetica,12\"\n",gplotlabel);
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset key outside ");
+       /* fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%s\" at graph 1.2,0.5 center rotate font \"Helvetica,12\"\n",gplotlabel); */
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset title \"%s\" font \"Helvetica,12\"\n",gplotlabel);
        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter svg size 640, 480 ");
        if (ng==1){
          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ylabel \"Value of the logit of the model\"\n"); /* exp(a12+b12*x) could be nice */
- Line 7483  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
+ Line 7833  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
              /* for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel-nagesqr; j++) { */
              for(j=1; j <=cptcovt; j++) { /* For each covariate of the simplified model */
                /* printf("Tage[%d]=%d, j=%d\n", ij, Tage[ij], j); */
-               if(j==Tage[ij]) { /* Product by age */
+               if(cptcovage >0){ /* V5+V4+V3+V4*V3+V5*age+V2+V1*V2+V1*age+V1, 2 V5 and V1 */
-                 if(ij <=cptcovage) { /* V5+V4+V3+V4*V3+V5*age+V2+V1*V2+V1*age+V1, 2 V5 and V1 */
+                 if(j==Tage[ij]) { /* Product by age  To be looked at!!*/
-                   if(DummyV[j]==0){
+                   if(ij <=cptcovage) { /* V5+V4+V3+V4*V3+V5*age+V2+V1*V2+V1*age+V1, 2 V5 and V1 */
-                     fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",i+j+2+nagesqr-1,Tinvresult[nres][Tvar[j]]);;
+                     if(DummyV[j]==0){
-                   }else{ /* quantitative */
+                       fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",i+j+2+nagesqr-1,Tinvresult[nres][Tvar[j]]);;
-                     fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%f*x",i+j+2+nagesqr-1,Tqinvresult[nres][Tvar[j]]); /* Tqinvresult in decoderesult */
+                     }else{ /* quantitative */
-                     /* fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",i+j+nagesqr-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(k1,Tvar[j-2])]); */
+                       fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%f*x",i+j+2+nagesqr-1,Tqinvresult[nres][Tvar[j]]); /* Tqinvresult in decoderesult */
-                   }
+                       /* fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",i+j+nagesqr-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(k1,Tvar[j-2])]); */
-                   ij++;
-                 }
-               }else if(j==Tprod[ijp]) { /* */
-                 /* printf("Tprod[%d]=%d, j=%d\n", ij, Tprod[ijp], j); */
-                 if(ijp <=cptcovprod) { /* Product */
-                   if(DummyV[Tvard[ijp][1]]==0){/* Vn is dummy */
-                     if(DummyV[Tvard[ijp][2]]==0){/* Vn and Vm are dummy */
-                       /* fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*%d",i+j+2+nagesqr-1,nbcode[Tvard[ijp][1]][codtabm(k1,j)],nbcode[Tvard[ijp][2]][codtabm(k1,j)]); */
-                       fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*%d",i+j+2+nagesqr-1,Tinvresult[nres][Tvard[ijp][1]],Tinvresult[nres][Tvard[ijp][2]]);
-                     }else{ /* Vn is dummy and Vm is quanti */
-                       /* fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*%f",i+j+2+nagesqr-1,nbcode[Tvard[ijp][1]][codtabm(k1,j)],Tqinvresult[nres][Tvard[ijp][2]]); */
-                       fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*%f",i+j+2+nagesqr-1,Tinvresult[nres][Tvard[ijp][1]],Tqinvresult[nres][Tvard[ijp][2]]);
                      }
-                   }else{ /* Vn*Vm Vn is quanti */
+                     ij++;
-                     if(DummyV[Tvard[ijp][2]]==0){
+                   }
-                       fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*%f",i+j+2+nagesqr-1,Tinvresult[nres][Tvard[ijp][2]],Tqinvresult[nres][Tvard[ijp][1]]);
+                 }
-                     }else{ /* Both quanti */
+               }else if(cptcovprod >0){
-                       fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%f*%f",i+j+2+nagesqr-1,Tqinvresult[nres][Tvard[ijp][1]],Tqinvresult[nres][Tvard[ijp][2]]);
+                 if(j==Tprod[ijp]) { /* */
+                   /* printf("Tprod[%d]=%d, j=%d\n", ij, Tprod[ijp], j); */
+                   if(ijp <=cptcovprod) { /* Product */
+                     if(DummyV[Tvard[ijp][1]]==0){/* Vn is dummy */
+                       if(DummyV[Tvard[ijp][2]]==0){/* Vn and Vm are dummy */
+                         /* fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*%d",i+j+2+nagesqr-1,nbcode[Tvard[ijp][1]][codtabm(k1,j)],nbcode[Tvard[ijp][2]][codtabm(k1,j)]); */
+                         fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*%d",i+j+2+nagesqr-1,Tinvresult[nres][Tvard[ijp][1]],Tinvresult[nres][Tvard[ijp][2]]);
+                       }else{ /* Vn is dummy and Vm is quanti */
+                         /* fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*%f",i+j+2+nagesqr-1,nbcode[Tvard[ijp][1]][codtabm(k1,j)],Tqinvresult[nres][Tvard[ijp][2]]); */
+                         fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*%f",i+j+2+nagesqr-1,Tinvresult[nres][Tvard[ijp][1]],Tqinvresult[nres][Tvard[ijp][2]]);
+                       }
+                     }else{ /* Vn*Vm Vn is quanti */
+                       if(DummyV[Tvard[ijp][2]]==0){
+                         fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*%f",i+j+2+nagesqr-1,Tinvresult[nres][Tvard[ijp][2]],Tqinvresult[nres][Tvard[ijp][1]]);
+                       }else{ /* Both quanti */
+                         fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%f*%f",i+j+2+nagesqr-1,Tqinvresult[nres][Tvard[ijp][1]],Tqinvresult[nres][Tvard[ijp][2]]);
+                       }
                      }
+                     ijp++;
                    }
-                   ijp++;
+                 } /* end Tprod */
-                 }
                } else{  /* simple covariate */
                  /* fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",i+j+2+nagesqr-1,nbcode[Tvar[j]][codtabm(k1,j)]); /\* Valgrind bug nbcode *\/ */
                  if(Dummy[j]==0){
- Line 7540  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
+ Line 7894  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
                ij=1;
                for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel-nagesqr; j++){
-                 if((j-2)==Tage[ij]) { /* Bug valgrind */
+                  if(cptcovage >0){
-                   if(ij <=cptcovage) { /* Bug valgrind */
+                    if((j-2)==Tage[ij]) { /* Bug valgrind */
-                     fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(cpt-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2+nagesqr,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(k1,j-2)]);
+                      if(ij <=cptcovage) { /* Bug valgrind */
-                     /* fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(cpt-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2+nagesqr,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(k1,Tvar[j-2])]); */
+                        fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(cpt-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2+nagesqr,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(k1,j-2)]);
-                     ij++;
+                        /* fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(cpt-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2+nagesqr,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(k1,Tvar[j-2])]); */
-                   }
+                        ij++;
-                 }
+                      }
-                 else
+                    }
-                   fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",k3+(cpt-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2+nagesqr,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(k1,j-2)]);/* Valgrind bug nbcode */
+                  }else
+                    fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",k3+(cpt-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2+nagesqr,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtabm(k1,j-2)]);/* Valgrind bug nbcode */
                }
                fprintf(ficgp,")");
              }
              fprintf(ficgp,")");
              if(ng ==2)
-               fprintf(ficgp," t \"p%d%d\" ", k2,k);
+               fprintf(ficgp," w l lw 2 lt (%d*%d+%d)%%%d+1 dt %d t \"p%d%d\" ", nlstate+ndeath, k2, k, nlstate+ndeath, k2, k2,k);
              else /* ng= 3 */
-               fprintf(ficgp," t \"i%d%d\" ", k2,k);
+               fprintf(ficgp," w l lw 2 lt (%d*%d+%d)%%%d+1 dt %d t \"i%d%d\" ",  nlstate+ndeath, k2, k, nlstate+ndeath, k2, k2,k);
            }else{ /* end ng <> 1 */
              if( k !=k2) /* logit p11 is hard to draw */
-               fprintf(ficgp," t \"logit(p%d%d)\" ", k2,k);
+               fprintf(ficgp," w l lw 2 lt (%d*%d+%d)%%%d+1 dt %d t \"logit(p%d%d)\" ",  nlstate+ndeath, k2, k, nlstate+ndeath, k2, k2,k);
            }
            if ((k+k2)!= (nlstate*2+ndeath) && ng != 1)
              fprintf(ficgp,",");
- Line 7568  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
+ Line 7923  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
            i=i+ncovmodel;
          } /* end k */
        } /* end k2 */
-       fprintf(ficgp,"\n set out; unset label;\n");
+       /* fprintf(ficgp,"\n set out; unset label;set key default;\n"); */
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\n set out; unset title;set key default;\n");
      } /* end k1 */
    } /* end ng */
    /* avoid: */
- Line 7592  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
+ Line 7948  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
     double *agemingoodr, *agemaxgoodr;
-    /* modcovmax=2*cptcoveff;/\* Max number of modalities. We suppose  */
+    /* modcovmax=2*cptcoveff;  Max number of modalities. We suppose  */
-    /*              a covariate has 2 modalities, should be equal to ncovcombmax  *\/ */
+    /*              a covariate has 2 modalities, should be equal to ncovcombmax   */
     sumnewp = vector(1,ncovcombmax);
     sumnewm = vector(1,ncovcombmax);
- Line 7713  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
+ Line 8069  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
           sumr+=probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
         }
         if(fabs(sum - 1.) > 1.e-3) { /* bad */
-          printf("Moving average A1: For this combination of covariate cptcod=%d, we can't get a smoothed prevalence which sums to one (%f) at any descending age! age=%d, could you increase bage=%d\n",cptcod,sumr, (int)age, bage);
+          printf("Moving average A1: For this combination of covariate cptcod=%d, we can't get a smoothed prevalence which sums to one (%f) at any descending age! age=%d, could you increase bage=%d\n",cptcod,sumr, (int)age, (int)bage);
         } /* end bad */
         /* else{ /\* We found some ages summing to one, we will smooth the oldest *\/ */
         if(fabs(sumr - 1.) > 1.e-3) { /* bad */
-          printf("Moving average A2: For this combination of covariate cptcod=%d, the raw prevalence doesn't sums to one (%f) even with smoothed values at young ages! age=%d, could you increase bage=%d\n",cptcod,sumr, (int)age, bage);
+          printf("Moving average A2: For this combination of covariate cptcod=%d, the raw prevalence doesn't sums to one (%f) even with smoothed values at young ages! age=%d, could you increase bage=%d\n",cptcod,sumr, (int)age, (int)bage);
         } /* end bad */
       }/* age */
- Line 7753  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
+ Line 8109  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
           sumr+=mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod];
         }
         if(fabs(sum - 1.) > 1.e-3) { /* bad */
-          printf("Moving average B1: For this combination of covariate cptcod=%d, we can't get a smoothed prevalence which sums to one (%f) at any descending age! age=%d, could you decrease fage=%d?\n",cptcod, sum, (int) age, fage);
+          printf("Moving average B1: For this combination of covariate cptcod=%d, we can't get a smoothed prevalence which sums to one (%f) at any descending age! age=%d, could you decrease fage=%d?\n",cptcod, sum, (int) age, (int)fage);
         } /* end bad */
         /* else{ /\* We found some ages summing to one, we will smooth the oldest *\/ */
         if(fabs(sumr - 1.) > 1.e-3) { /* bad */
-          printf("Moving average B2: For this combination of covariate cptcod=%d, the raw prevalence doesn't sums to one (%f) even with smoothed values at young ages! age=%d, could you increase fage=%d\n",cptcod,sumr, (int)age, fage);
+          printf("Moving average B2: For this combination of covariate cptcod=%d, the raw prevalence doesn't sums to one (%f) even with smoothed values at young ages! age=%d, could you increase fage=%d\n",cptcod,sumr, (int)age, (int)fage);
         } /* end bad */
       }/* age */
- Line 7806  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
+ Line 8162  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
  /************** Forecasting ******************/
-  void prevforecast(char fileres[], double anproj1, double mproj1, double jproj1, double ageminpar, double agemax, double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double bage, double fage, int firstpass, int lastpass, double anproj2, double p[], int cptcoveff){
+  void prevforecast(char fileres[], double anproj1, double mproj1, double jproj1, double ageminpar, double agemax, double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double ***prev, double bage, double fage, int firstpass, int lastpass, double anproj2, double p[], int cptcoveff){
    /* proj1, year, month, day of starting projection
       agemin, agemax range of age
       dateprev1 dateprev2 range of dates during which prevalence is computed
       anproj2 year of en of projection (same day and month as proj1).
    */
-    int yearp, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j, k, cptcod, i, h, i1, k4, nres=0;
+   int yearp, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j, k, cptcod, i, h, i1, k4, nres=0;
    double agec; /* generic age */
    double agelim, ppij, yp,yp1,yp2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean;
    double *popeffectif,*popcount;
    double ***p3mat;
    /* double ***mobaverage; */
    char fileresf[FILENAMELENGTH];
    agelim=AGESUP;
+   /* Compute observed prevalence between dateprev1 and dateprev2 by counting the number of people
+      in each health status at the date of interview (if between dateprev1 and dateprev2).
+      We still use firstpass and lastpass as another selection.
+   */
+   /* freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,strstart,\ */
+   /*          firstpass, lastpass,  stepm,  weightopt, model); */
+   strcpy(fileresf,"F_");
+   strcat(fileresf,fileresu);
+   if((ficresf=fopen(fileresf,"w"))==NULL) {
+     printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);
+   }
+   printf("\nComputing forecasting: result on file '%s', please wait... \n", fileresf);
+   fprintf(ficlog,"\nComputing forecasting: result on file '%s', please wait... \n", fileresf);
+   if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
+   stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
+   if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;
+   if(estepm < stepm){
+     printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
+   }
+   else{
+     hstepm=estepm;
+   }
+   if(estepm > stepm){ /* Yes every two year */
+     stepsize=2;
+   }
+   hstepm=hstepm/stepm;
+   yp1=modf(dateintmean,&yp);/* extracts integral of datemean in yp  and
+                                fractional in yp1 */
+   anprojmean=yp;
+   yp2=modf((yp1*12),&yp);
+   mprojmean=yp;
+   yp1=modf((yp2*30.5),&yp);
+   jprojmean=yp;
+   if(jprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;
+   if(mprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;
+   i1=pow(2,cptcoveff);
+   if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
+   fprintf(ficresf,"# Mean day of interviews %.lf/%.lf/%.lf (%.2f) between %.2f and %.2f \n",jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean,dateintmean,dateprev1,dateprev2);
+   fprintf(ficresf,"#****** Routine prevforecast **\n");
+ /*            if (h==(int)(YEARM*yearp)){ */
+   for(nres=1; nres <= nresult; nres++) /* For each resultline */
+   for(k=1; k<=i1;k++){
+     if(i1 != 1 && TKresult[nres]!= k)
+       continue;
+     if(invalidvarcomb[k]){
+       printf("\nCombination (%d) projection ignored because no cases \n",k);
+       continue;
+     }
+     fprintf(ficresf,"\n#****** hpijx=probability over h years, hp.jx is weighted by observed prev \n#");
+     for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
+       fprintf(ficresf," V%d (=) %d",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+     }
+     for (k4=1; k4<= nsq; k4++){ /* For each selected (single) quantitative value */
+       fprintf(ficresf," V%d=%f ",Tvqresult[nres][k4],Tqresult[nres][k4]);
+     }
+     fprintf(ficresf," yearproj age");
+     for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+         fprintf(ficresf," p%d%d",i,j);
+       fprintf(ficresf," wp.%d",j);
+     }
+     for (yearp=0; yearp<=(anproj2-anproj1);yearp +=stepsize) {
+       fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
+       fprintf(ficresf,"\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1+yearp);
+       /* for (agec=fage; agec>=(ageminpar-1); agec--){  */
+       for (agec=fage; agec>=(bage); agec--){
+         nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agec)*YEARM/stepm);
+         nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;
+         p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+         oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
+         /* We compute pii at age agec over nhstepm);*/
+         hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agec,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k,nres);
+         /* Then we print p3mat for h corresponding to the right agec+h*stepms=yearp */
+         for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
+           if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm ==yearp) {
+             break;
+           }
+         }
+         fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
+         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
+           fprintf(ficresf,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+         fprintf(ficresf,"%.f %.f ",anproj1+yearp,agec+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
+         for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
+           ppij=0.;
+           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {
+             if (mobilav>=1)
+              ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*prev[(int)agec][i][k];
+             else { /* even if mobilav==-1 we use mobaverage, probs may not sums to 1 */
+                 ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agec)][i][k];
+             }
+             fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", p3mat[i][j][h]);
+           } /* end i */
+           fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", ppij);
+         }/* end j */
+         free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+       } /* end agec */
+       /* diffyear=(int) anproj1+yearp-ageminpar-1; */
+       /*printf("Prevforecast %d+%d-%d=diffyear=%d\n",(int) anproj1, (int)yearp,(int)ageminpar,(int) anproj1-(int)ageminpar);*/
+     } /* end yearp */
+   } /* end  k */
+   fclose(ficresf);
+   printf("End of Computing forecasting \n");
+   fprintf(ficlog,"End of Computing forecasting\n");
+ }
+ /************** Back Forecasting ******************/
+  void prevbackforecast(char fileres[], double ***prevacurrent, double anback1, double mback1, double jback1, double ageminpar, double agemax, double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double bage, double fage, int firstpass, int lastpass, double anback2, double p[], int cptcoveff){
+   /* back1, year, month, day of starting backection
+      agemin, agemax range of age
+      dateprev1 dateprev2 range of dates during which prevalence is computed
+      anback2 year of end of backprojection (same day and month as back1).
+      prevacurrent and prev are prevalences.
+   */
+   int yearp, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j, k, cptcod, i, h, i1, k4, nres=0;
+   double agec; /* generic age */
+   double agelim, ppij, ppi, yp,yp1,yp2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean;
+   double *popeffectif,*popcount;
+   double ***p3mat;
+   /* double ***mobaverage; */
+   char fileresfb[FILENAMELENGTH];
+   agelim=AGEINF;
    /* Compute observed prevalence between dateprev1 and dateprev2 by counting the number of people
       in each health status at the date of interview (if between dateprev1 and dateprev2).
       We still use firstpass and lastpass as another selection.
    */
    /* freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,strstart,\ */
    /*          firstpass, lastpass,  stepm,  weightopt, model); */
-   strcpy(fileresf,"F_");
-   strcat(fileresf,fileresu);
-   if((ficresf=fopen(fileresf,"w"))==NULL) {
-     printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);
-     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);
-   }
-   printf("\nComputing forecasting: result on file '%s', please wait... \n", fileresf);
-   fprintf(ficlog,"\nComputing forecasting: result on file '%s', please wait... \n", fileresf);
-   if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
+   /*Do we need to compute prevalence again?*/
+   /* prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass); */
+   strcpy(fileresfb,"FB_");
+   strcat(fileresfb,fileresu);
+   if((ficresfb=fopen(fileresfb,"w"))==NULL) {
+     printf("Problem with back forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresfb);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with back forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresfb);
+   }
+   printf("\nComputing back forecasting: result on file '%s', please wait... \n", fileresfb);
+   fprintf(ficlog,"\nComputing back forecasting: result on file '%s', please wait... \n", fileresfb);
+   if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
    stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
    if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;
    if(estepm < stepm){
      printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
    }
-   else  hstepm=estepm;
+   else{
+     hstepm=estepm;
-   hstepm=hstepm/stepm;
+   }
+   if(estepm >= stepm){ /* Yes every two year */
+     stepsize=2;
+   }
+   hstepm=hstepm/stepm;
    yp1=modf(dateintmean,&yp);/* extracts integral of datemean in yp  and
                                 fractional in yp1 */
    anprojmean=yp;
- Line 7857  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
+ Line 8357  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
    jprojmean=yp;
    if(jprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;
    if(mprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;
    i1=pow(2,cptcoveff);
    if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
-   fprintf(ficresf,"# Mean day of interviews %.lf/%.lf/%.lf (%.2f) between %.2f and %.2f \n",jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean,dateintmean,dateprev1,dateprev2);
+   fprintf(ficresfb,"# Mean day of interviews %.lf/%.lf/%.lf (%.2f) between %.2f and %.2f \n",jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean,dateintmean,dateprev1,dateprev2);
+   printf("# Mean day of interviews %.lf/%.lf/%.lf (%.2f) between %.2f and %.2f \n",jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean,dateintmean,dateprev1,dateprev2);
-   fprintf(ficresf,"#****** Routine prevforecast **\n");
+   fprintf(ficresfb,"#****** Routine prevbackforecast **\n");
- /*            if (h==(int)(YEARM*yearp)){ */
    for(nres=1; nres <= nresult; nres++) /* For each resultline */
    for(k=1; k<=i1;k++){
      if(i1 != 1 && TKresult[nres]!= k)
- Line 7874  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
+ Line 8374  set ter svg size 640, 480\nunset log y\n
        printf("\nCombination (%d) projection ignored because no cases \n",k);
        continue;
      }
-     fprintf(ficresf,"\n#****** hpijx=probability over h years, hp.jx is weighted by observed prev \n#");
+     fprintf(ficresfb,"\n#****** hbijx=probability over h years, hb.jx is weighted by observed prev \n#");
      for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
-       fprintf(ficresf," V%d (=) %d",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+       fprintf(ficresfb," V%d (=) %d",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
      }
      for (k4=1; k4<= nsq; k4++){ /* For each selected (single) quantitative value */
        fprintf(ficresf," V%d=%f ",Tvqresult[nres][k4],Tqresult[nres][k4]);
      }
-     fprintf(ficresf," yearproj age");
+     fprintf(ficresfb," yearbproj age");
      for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
        for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-         fprintf(ficresf," p%d%d",i,j);
+         fprintf(ficresfb," b%d%d",i,j);
-       fprintf(ficresf," wp.%d",j);
+       fprintf(ficresfb," b.%d",j);
      }
-     for (yearp=0; yearp<=(anproj2-anproj1);yearp +=stepsize) {
+     for (yearp=0; yearp>=(anback2-anback1);yearp -=stepsize) {
-       fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
+       /* for (yearp=0; yearp<=(anproj2-anproj1);yearp +=stepsize) {  */
-       fprintf(ficresf,"\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1+yearp);
+       fprintf(ficresfb,"\n");
-       for (agec=fage; agec>=(ageminpar-1); agec--){
+       fprintf(ficresfb,"\n# Back Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jback1,mback1,anback1+yearp);
-         nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agec)*YEARM/stepm);
+       /* printf("\n# Back Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jback1,mback1,anback1+yearp); */
-         nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;
+       /* for (agec=bage; agec<=agemax-1; agec++){  /\* testing *\/ */
+       for (agec=bage; agec<=fage; agec++){  /* testing */
+         /* We compute bij at age agec over nhstepm, nhstepm decreases when agec increases because of agemax;*/
+         nhstepm=(int) (agec-agelim) *YEARM/stepm;/*     nhstepm=(int) rint((agec-agelim)*YEARM/stepm);*/
+         nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;
          p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
          oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
-         hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agec,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k,nres);
+         /* computes hbxij at age agec over 1 to nhstepm */
+         /* printf("####prevbackforecast debug  agec=%.2f nhstepm=%d\n",agec, nhstepm);fflush(stdout); */
+         hbxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agec,hstepm,p,prevacurrent,nlstate,stepm, k, nres);
+         /* hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agec,hstepm,p,             nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k,nres); */
+         /* Then we print p3mat for h corresponding to the right agec+h*stepms=yearp */
+         /* printf(" agec=%.2f\n",agec);fflush(stdout); */
          for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
-           if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm ==yearp) {
+           if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm ==-yearp) {
-             fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
+             break;
-             for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
+           }
-               fprintf(ficresf,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+         }
-             fprintf(ficresf,"%.f %.f ",anproj1+yearp,agec+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
+         fprintf(ficresfb,"\n");
-           }
+         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
-           for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
+           fprintf(ficresfb,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
-             ppij=0.;
+         fprintf(ficresfb,"%.f %.f ",anback1+yearp,agec-h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
-             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {
+         for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++) {
-               /* if (mobilav>=1)  */
+           ppij=0.;ppi=0.;
-                 ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agec][i][k];
+           for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++) {
-                 /* else { */ /* even if mobilav==-1 we use mobaverage */
+             /* if (mobilav==1) */
+             ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*prevacurrent[(int)agec][j][k];
+             ppi=ppi+prevacurrent[(int)agec][j][k];
+             /* ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agec][j][k]; */
+             /* ppi=ppi+mobaverage[(int)agec][j][k]; */
+               /* else { */
                /*        ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agec)][i][k]; */
                /* } */
-               if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm== yearp) {
+             fprintf(ficresfb," %.3f", p3mat[i][j][h]);
-                 fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", p3mat[i][j][h]);
+           } /* end j */
-               }
+           if(ppi <0.99){
-             } /* end i */
+             printf("Error in prevbackforecast, prevalence doesn't sum to 1 for state %d: %3f\n",i, ppi);
-             if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm==yearp) {
+             fprintf(ficlog,"Error in prevbackforecast, prevalence doesn't sum to 1 for state %d: %3f\n",i, ppi);
-               fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", ppij);
+           }
-             }
+           fprintf(ficresfb," %.3f", ppij);
-           }/* end j */
+         }/* end j */
-         } /* end h */
          free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
        } /* end agec */
-       /* diffyear=(int) anproj1+yearp-ageminpar-1; */
-       /*printf("Prevforecast %d+%d-%d=diffyear=%d\n",(int) anproj1, (int)yearp,(int)ageminpar,(int) anproj1-(int)ageminpar);*/
      } /* end yearp */
-   } /* end  k */
+   } /* end k */
-   fclose(ficresf);
-   printf("End of Computing forecasting \n");
-   fprintf(ficlog,"End of Computing forecasting\n");
- }
- /* /\************** Back Forecasting ******************\/ */
- /* void prevbackforecast(char fileres[], double anback1, double mback1, double jback1, double ageminpar, double agemax, double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double bage, double fage, int firstpass, int lastpass, double anback2, double p[], int cptcoveff){ */
- /*   /\* back1, year, month, day of starting backection  */
- /*      agemin, agemax range of age */
- /*      dateprev1 dateprev2 range of dates during which prevalence is computed */
- /*      anback2 year of en of backection (same day and month as back1). */
- /*   *\/ */
- /*   int yearp, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j, k, cptcod, i, h, i1; */
- /*   double agec; /\* generic age *\/ */
- /*   double agelim, ppij, yp,yp1,yp2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean; */
- /*   double *popeffectif,*popcount; */
- /*   double ***p3mat; */
- /*   /\* double ***mobaverage; *\/ */
- /*   char fileresfb[FILENAMELENGTH]; */
- /*   agelim=AGESUP; */
- /*   /\* Compute observed prevalence between dateprev1 and dateprev2 by counting the number of people */
- /*      in each health status at the date of interview (if between dateprev1 and dateprev2). */
- /*      We still use firstpass and lastpass as another selection. */
- /*   *\/ */
- /*   /\* freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,strstart,\ *\/ */
- /*   /\*              firstpass, lastpass,  stepm,  weightopt, model); *\/ */
- /*   prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass); */
- /*   strcpy(fileresfb,"FB_");  */
- /*   strcat(fileresfb,fileresu); */
- /*   if((ficresfb=fopen(fileresfb,"w"))==NULL) { */
- /*     printf("Problem with back forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresfb); */
- /*     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with back forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresfb); */
- /*   } */
- /*   printf("Computing back forecasting: result on file '%s', please wait... \n", fileresfb); */
- /*   fprintf(ficlog,"Computing back forecasting: result on file '%s', please wait... \n", fileresfb); */
- /*   if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1; */
- /*   /\* if (mobilav!=0) { *\/ */
- /*   /\*   mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX); *\/ */
- /*   /\*   if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){ *\/ */
- /*   /\*     fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav); *\/ */
- /*   /\*     printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav); *\/ */
- /*   /\*   } *\/ */
- /*   /\* } *\/ */
- /*   stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM; */
- /*   if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1; */
- /*   if(estepm < stepm){ */
- /*     printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm); */
- /*   } */
- /*   else  hstepm=estepm;    */
- /*   hstepm=hstepm/stepm;  */
- /*   yp1=modf(dateintmean,&yp);/\* extracts integral of datemean in yp  and */
- /*                                fractional in yp1 *\/ */
- /*   anprojmean=yp; */
- /*   yp2=modf((yp1*12),&yp); */
- /*   mprojmean=yp; */
- /*   yp1=modf((yp2*30.5),&yp); */
- /*   jprojmean=yp; */
- /*   if(jprojmean==0) jprojmean=1; */
- /*   if(mprojmean==0) jprojmean=1; */
- /*   i1=cptcoveff; */
- /*   if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;} */
- /*   fprintf(ficresfb,"# Mean day of interviews %.lf/%.lf/%.lf (%.2f) between %.2f and %.2f \n",jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean,dateintmean,dateprev1,dateprev2);  */
+   /* if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX); */
- /*   fprintf(ficresfb,"#****** Routine prevbackforecast **\n"); */
+   fclose(ficresfb);
+   printf("End of Computing Back forecasting \n");
- /*      /\*           if (h==(int)(YEARM*yearp)){ *\/ */
+   fprintf(ficlog,"End of Computing Back forecasting\n");
- /*   for(cptcov=1, k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){ */
- /*     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){ */
- /*       k=k+1; */
- /*       fprintf(ficresfb,"\n#****** hbijx=probability over h years, hp.jx is weighted by observed prev \n#"); */
- /*       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) { */
- /*                              fprintf(ficresfb," V%d (=) %d",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]); */
- /*       } */
- /*       fprintf(ficresfb," yearbproj age"); */
- /*       for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){  */
- /*                              for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)               */
- /*           fprintf(ficresfb," p%d%d",i,j); */
- /*                              fprintf(ficresfb," p.%d",j); */
- /*       } */
- /*       for (yearp=0; yearp>=(anback2-anback1);yearp -=stepsize) {  */
- /*                              /\* for (yearp=0; yearp<=(anproj2-anproj1);yearp +=stepsize) {  *\/ */
- /*                              fprintf(ficresfb,"\n"); */
- /*                              fprintf(ficresfb,"\n# Back Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jback1,mback1,anback1+yearp);    */
- /*                              for (agec=fage; agec>=(ageminpar-1); agec--){  */
- /*                                      nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agec)*YEARM/stepm);  */
- /*                                      nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;  */
- /*                                      p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm); */
- /*                                      oldm=oldms;savm=savms; */
- /*                                      hbxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agec,hstepm,p,prevacurrent,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm,oldm,savm, dnewm, doldm, dsavm, k);       */
- /*                                      for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){ */
- /*                                              if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm ==yearp) { */
- /*               fprintf(ficresfb,"\n"); */
- /*               for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)  */
- /*                 fprintf(ficresfb,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]); */
- /*                                                      fprintf(ficresfb,"%.f %.f ",anback1+yearp,agec+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm); */
- /*                                              }  */
- /*                                              for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) { */
- /*                                                      ppij=0.; */
- /*                                                      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) { */
- /*                                                              if (mobilav==1)  */
- /*                                                                      ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agec][i][cptcod]; */
- /*                                                              else { */
- /*                                                                      ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agec)][i][cptcod]; */
- /*                                                              } */
- /*                                                              if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm== yearp) { */
- /*                                                                      fprintf(ficresfb," %.3f", p3mat[i][j][h]); */
- /*                                                              } */
- /*                                                      } /\* end i *\/ */
- /*                                                      if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm==yearp) { */
- /*                                                              fprintf(ficresfb," %.3f", ppij); */
- /*                                                      } */
- /*                                              }/\* end j *\/ */
- /*                                      } /\* end h *\/ */
- /*                                      free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm); */
- /*                              } /\* end agec *\/ */
- /*       } /\* end yearp *\/ */
- /*     } /\* end cptcod *\/ */
- /*   } /\* end  cptcov *\/ */
- /*   /\* if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX); *\/ */
+ }
- /*   fclose(ficresfb); */
+ /* Variance of prevalence limit: varprlim */
- /*   printf("End of Computing Back forecasting \n"); */
+  void varprlim(char fileresu[], int nresult, double ***prevacurrent, int mobilavproj, double bage, double fage, double **prlim, int *ncvyearp, double ftolpl, double p[], double **matcov, double *delti, int stepm, int cptcoveff){
- /*   fprintf(ficlog,"End of Computing Back forecasting\n"); */
+     /*------- Variance of period (stable) prevalence------*/
- /* } */
+    char fileresvpl[FILENAMELENGTH];
+    FILE *ficresvpl;
+    double **oldm, **savm;
+    double **varpl; /* Variances of prevalence limits by age */
+    int i1, k, nres, j ;
+     strcpy(fileresvpl,"VPL_");
+     strcat(fileresvpl,fileresu);
+     if((ficresvpl=fopen(fileresvpl,"w"))==NULL) {
+       printf("Problem with variance of period (stable) prevalence  resultfile: %s\n", fileresvpl);
+       exit(0);
+     }
+     printf("Computing Variance-covariance of period (stable) prevalence: file '%s' ...", fileresvpl);fflush(stdout);
+     fprintf(ficlog, "Computing Variance-covariance of period (stable) prevalence: file '%s' ...", fileresvpl);fflush(ficlog);
+     /*for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
+       for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*/
+     i1=pow(2,cptcoveff);
+     if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
+     for(nres=1; nres <= nresult; nres++) /* For each resultline */
+     for(k=1; k<=i1;k++){
+       if(i1 != 1 && TKresult[nres]!= k)
+         continue;
+       fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n#****** ");
+       printf("\n#****** ");
+       fprintf(ficlog,"\n#****** ");
+       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
+         fprintf(ficresvpl,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+         fprintf(ficlog,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+         printf("V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+       }
+       for (j=1; j<= nsq; j++){ /* For each selected (single) quantitative value */
+         printf(" V%d=%f ",Tvqresult[nres][j],Tqresult[nres][j]);
+         fprintf(ficresvpl," V%d=%f ",Tvqresult[nres][j],Tqresult[nres][j]);
+         fprintf(ficlog," V%d=%f ",Tvqresult[nres][j],Tqresult[nres][j]);
+       }
+       fprintf(ficresvpl,"******\n");
+       printf("******\n");
+       fprintf(ficlog,"******\n");
+       varpl=matrix(1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
+       oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
+       varprevlim(fileresvpl, ficresvpl, varpl, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl, ncvyearp, k, strstart, nres);
+       free_matrix(varpl,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
+       /*}*/
+     }
+     fclose(ficresvpl);
+     printf("done variance-covariance of period prevalence\n");fflush(stdout);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"done variance-covariance of period prevalence\n");fflush(ficlog);
+  }
+ /* Variance of back prevalence: varbprlim */
+  void varbprlim(char fileresu[], int nresult, double ***prevacurrent, int mobilavproj, double bage, double fage, double **bprlim, int *ncvyearp, double ftolpl, double p[], double **matcov, double *delti, int stepm, int cptcoveff){
+       /*------- Variance of back (stable) prevalence------*/
+    char fileresvbl[FILENAMELENGTH];
+    FILE  *ficresvbl;
+    double **oldm, **savm;
+    double **varbpl; /* Variances of back prevalence limits by age */
+    int i1, k, nres, j ;
+    strcpy(fileresvbl,"VBL_");
+    strcat(fileresvbl,fileresu);
+    if((ficresvbl=fopen(fileresvbl,"w"))==NULL) {
+      printf("Problem with variance of back (stable) prevalence  resultfile: %s\n", fileresvbl);
+      exit(0);
+    }
+    printf("Computing Variance-covariance of back (stable) prevalence: file '%s' ...", fileresvbl);fflush(stdout);
+    fprintf(ficlog, "Computing Variance-covariance of back (stable) prevalence: file '%s' ...", fileresvbl);fflush(ficlog);
+    i1=pow(2,cptcoveff);
+    if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
+    for(nres=1; nres <= nresult; nres++) /* For each resultline */
+      for(k=1; k<=i1;k++){
+        if(i1 != 1 && TKresult[nres]!= k)
+          continue;
+        fprintf(ficresvbl,"\n#****** ");
+        printf("\n#****** ");
+        fprintf(ficlog,"\n#****** ");
+        for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
+          fprintf(ficresvbl,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+          fprintf(ficlog,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+          printf("V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
+        }
+        for (j=1; j<= nsq; j++){ /* For each selected (single) quantitative value */
+          printf(" V%d=%f ",Tvqresult[nres][j],Tqresult[nres][j]);
+          fprintf(ficresvbl," V%d=%f ",Tvqresult[nres][j],Tqresult[nres][j]);
+          fprintf(ficlog," V%d=%f ",Tvqresult[nres][j],Tqresult[nres][j]);
+        }
+        fprintf(ficresvbl,"******\n");
+        printf("******\n");
+        fprintf(ficlog,"******\n");
+        varbpl=matrix(1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
+        oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
+        varbrevlim(fileresvbl, ficresvbl, varbpl, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, bprlim, ftolpl, mobilavproj, ncvyearp, k, strstart, nres);
+        free_matrix(varbpl,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
+        /*}*/
+      }
+    fclose(ficresvbl);
+    printf("done variance-covariance of back prevalence\n");fflush(stdout);
+    fprintf(ficlog,"done variance-covariance of back prevalence\n");fflush(ficlog);
+  } /* End of varbprlim */
  /************** Forecasting *****not tested NB*************/
  /* void populforecast(char fileres[], double anpyram,double mpyram,double jpyram,double ageminpar, double agemax,double dateprev1, double dateprev2s, int mobilav, double agedeb, double fage, int popforecast, char popfile[], double anpyram1,double p[], int i2){ */
- Line 10071  int hPijx(double *p, int bage, int fage)
+ Line 10570  int hPijx(double *p, int bage, int fage)
          /* oldm=oldms;savm=savms; */
          /* hbxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);   */
-         hbxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,prevacurrent,nlstate,stepm, k);
+         hbxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,prevacurrent,nlstate,stepm, k, nres);
          /* hbxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,prevacurrent,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, dnewm, doldm, dsavm, k); */
          fprintf(ficrespijb,"# Cov Agex agex-h hbijx with i,j=");
          for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
- Line 10120  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
+ Line 10619  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
    int vpopbased=0;
    int nres=0;
    int endishere=0;
+   int noffset=0;
+   int ncurrv=0; /* Temporary variable */
    char ca[32], cb[32];
    /*  FILE *fichtm; *//* Html File */
    /* FILE *ficgp;*/ /*Gnuplot File */
- Line 10172  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
+ Line 10673  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
    double *delti; /* Scale */
    double ***eij, ***vareij;
    double **varpl; /* Variances of prevalence limits by age */
    double *epj, vepp;
-   double dateprev1, dateprev2,jproj1=1,mproj1=1,anproj1=2000,jproj2=1,mproj2=1,anproj2=2000;
+   double dateprev1, dateprev2;
-   double jback1=1,mback1=1,anback1=2000,jback2=1,mback2=1,anback2=2000;
+   double jproj1=1,mproj1=1,anproj1=2000,jproj2=1,mproj2=1,anproj2=2000, dateproj1=0, dateproj2=0;
+   double jback1=1,mback1=1,anback1=2000,jback2=1,mback2=1,anback2=2000, dateback1=0, dateback2=0;
    double **ximort;
    char *alph[]={"a","a","b","c","d","e"}, str[4]="1234";
- Line 10342  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
+ Line 10845  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
      fflush(ficlog);
      goto end;
    }
+       /*-------- Rewriting parameter file ----------*/
+   strcpy(rfileres,"r");    /* "Rparameterfile */
+   strcat(rfileres,optionfilefiname);    /* Parameter file first name */
+   strcat(rfileres,".");    /* */
+   strcat(rfileres,optionfilext);    /* Other files have txt extension */
+   if((ficres =fopen(rfileres,"w"))==NULL) {
+     printf("Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", rfileres);goto end;
+     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", rfileres);goto end;
+     fflush(ficlog);
+     goto end;
+   }
+   fprintf(ficres,"#IMaCh %s\n",version);
    /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
    numlinepar=0;
+   /* Is it a BOM UTF-8 Windows file? */
-     /* First parameter line */
+   /* First parameter line */
    while(fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar)) {
+     noffset=0;
+     if( line[0] == (char)0xEF && line[1] == (char)0xBB) /* EF BB BF */
+     {
+       noffset=noffset+3;
+       printf("# File is an UTF8 Bom.\n"); // 0xBF
+     }
+     else if( line[0] == (char)0xFE && line[1] == (char)0xFF)
+     {
+       noffset=noffset+2;
+       printf("# File is an UTF16BE BOM file\n");
+     }
+     else if( line[0] == 0 && line[1] == 0)
+     {
+       if( line[2] == (char)0xFE && line[3] == (char)0xFF){
+         noffset=noffset+4;
+         printf("# File is an UTF16BE BOM file\n");
+       }
+     } else{
+       ;/*printf(" Not a BOM file\n");*/
+     }
      /* If line starts with a # it is a comment */
-     if (line[0] == '#') {
+     if (line[noffset] == '#') {
        numlinepar++;
        fputs(line,stdout);
        fputs(line,ficparo);
+       fputs(line,ficres);
        fputs(line,ficlog);
        continue;
      }else
- Line 10373  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
+ Line 10911  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
        numlinepar++;
        fputs(line,stdout);
        fputs(line,ficparo);
+       fputs(line,ficres);
        fputs(line,ficlog);
        continue;
      }else
- Line 10395  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
+ Line 10934  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
        numlinepar++;
        fputs(line,stdout);
        fputs(line,ficparo);
+       fputs(line,ficres);
        fputs(line,ficlog);
        continue;
      }else
- Line 10455  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
+ Line 10995  int main(int argc, char *argv[])
    covar=matrix(0,NCOVMAX,1,n);  /**< used in readdata */
-   coqvar=matrix(1,nqv,1,n);  /**< Fixed quantitative covariate */
+   if(nqv>=1)coqvar=matrix(1,nqv,1,n);  /**< Fixed quantitative covariate */
-   cotvar=ma3x(1,maxwav,1,ntv+nqtv,1,n);  /**< Time varying covariate (dummy and quantitative)*/
+   if(nqtv>=1)cotqvar=ma3x(1,maxwav,1,nqtv,1,n);  /**< Time varying quantitative covariate */
-   cotqvar=ma3x(1,maxwav,1,nqtv,1,n);  /**< Time varying quantitative covariate */
+   if(ntv+nqtv>=1)cotvar=ma3x(1,maxwav,1,ntv+nqtv,1,n);  /**< Time varying covariate (dummy and quantitative)*/
    cptcovn=0; /*Number of covariates, i.e. number of '+' in model statement plus one, indepently of n in Vn*/
    /* v1+v2+v3+v2*v4+v5*age makes cptcovn = 5
       v1+v2*age+v2*v3 makes cptcovn = 3
- Line 10656  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 11196  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
      fflush(ficlog);
-     /*-------- Rewriting parameter file ----------*/
-     strcpy(rfileres,"r");    /* "Rparameterfile */
-     strcat(rfileres,optionfilefiname);    /* Parameter file first name*/
-     strcat(rfileres,".");    /* */
-     strcat(rfileres,optionfilext);    /* Other files have txt extension */
-     if((ficres =fopen(rfileres,"w"))==NULL) {
-       printf("Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", rfileres);goto end;
-       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", rfileres);goto end;
-     }
-     fprintf(ficres,"#%s\n",version);
    }    /* End of mle != -3 */
    /*  Main data
- Line 11003  Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d La
+ Line 11533  Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d La
                firstpass, lastpass,  stepm,  weightopt, model);
    fprintf(fichtm,"\n");
-   fprintf(fichtm,"<br>Total number of observations=%d <br>\n\
+   fprintf(fichtm,"<h4>Parameter line 2</h4><ul><li>Tolerance for the convergence of the likelihood: ftol=%f \n<li>Interval for the elementary matrix (in month): stepm=%d",\
+           ftol, stepm);
+   fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li>Number of fixed dummy covariates: ncovcol=%d ", ncovcol);
+   ncurrv=1;
+   for(i=ncurrv; i <=ncovcol; i++) fprintf(fichtm,"V%d ", i);
+   fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li> Number of fixed quantitative variables: nqv=%d ", nqv);
+   ncurrv=i;
+   for(i=ncurrv; i <=ncurrv-1+nqv; i++) fprintf(fichtm,"V%d ", i);
+   fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li> Number of time varying (wave varying) covariates: ntv=%d ", ntv);
+   ncurrv=i;
+   for(i=ncurrv; i <=ncurrv-1+ntv; i++) fprintf(fichtm,"V%d ", i);
+   fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li>Number of quantitative time varying covariates: nqtv=%d ", nqtv);
+   ncurrv=i;
+   for(i=ncurrv; i <=ncurrv-1+nqtv; i++) fprintf(fichtm,"V%d ", i);
+   fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li>Weights column \n<br>Number of alive states: nlstate=%d <br>Number of death states (not really implemented): ndeath=%d \n<li>Number of waves: maxwav=%d \n<li>Parameter for maximization (1), using parameter values (0), for design of parameters and variance-covariance matrix: mle=%d \n<li>Does the weight column be taken into account (1), or not (0): weight=%d</ul>\n", \
+            nlstate, ndeath, maxwav, mle, weightopt);
+   fprintf(fichtm,"<h4> Diagram of states <a href=\"%s_.svg\">%s_.svg</a></h4> \n\
+ <img src=\"%s_.svg\">", subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"D_"),subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"D_"),subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"D_"));
+   fprintf(fichtm,"\n<h4>Some descriptive statistics </h4>\n<br>Total number of observations=%d <br>\n\
  Youngest age at first (selected) pass %.2f, oldest age %.2f<br>\n\
  Interval (in months) between two waves: Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%.2lf<br>\n",\
-           imx,agemin,agemax,jmin,jmax,jmean);
+   imx,agemin,agemax,jmin,jmax,jmean);
    pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
-         oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
+   oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
-         newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
+   newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
-         savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
+   savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
-         oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */
+   oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */
    /* For Powell, parameters are in a vector p[] starting at p[1]
       so we point p on param[1][1] so that p[1] maps on param[1][1][1] */
- Line 11566  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 12117  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
            fprintf(ficlog,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
            fprintf(ficres,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
            /* day and month of proj2 are not used but only year anproj2.*/
+           dateproj1=anproj1+(mproj1-1)/12.+(jproj1-1)/365.;
+           dateproj2=anproj2+(mproj2-1)/12.+(jproj2-1)/365.;
          }
          break;
        case 12:
- Line 11581  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 12135  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
            fprintf(ficlog,"backcast=%d starting-back-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-back-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",backcast,jback1,mback1,anback1,jback2,mback2,anback2,mobilavproj);
            fprintf(ficres,"backcast=%d starting-back-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-back-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",backcast,jback1,mback1,anback1,jback2,mback2,anback2,mobilavproj);
            /* day and month of proj2 are not used but only year anproj2.*/
+           dateback1=anback1+(mback1-1)/12.+(jback1-1)/365.;
+           dateback2=anback2+(mback2-1)/12.+(jback2-1)/365.;
          }
          break;
        case 13:
- Line 11631  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 12187  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
  This is probably because your parameter file doesn't \n  contain the exact number of lines (or columns) corresponding to your model line.\n\
  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct covariance matrix.\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar);
      }else{
-       printinggnuplot(fileresu, optionfilefiname,ageminpar,agemaxpar,fage, prevfcast, backcast, pathc,p, (int)anproj1-(int)ageminpar);
+       /* printinggnuplot(fileresu, optionfilefiname,ageminpar,agemaxpar,fage, prevfcast, backcast, pathc,p, (int)anproj1-(int)agemin, (int)anback1-(int)agemax+1); */
+       printinggnuplot(fileresu, optionfilefiname,ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage, fage, prevfcast, backcast, pathc,p, (int)anproj1-bage, (int)anback1-fage);
      }
      printinghtml(fileresu,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, stepm, weightopt, \
                   model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,rfileres,popforecast,mobilav,prevfcast,mobilavproj,backcast, estepm, \
-                  jprev1,mprev1,anprev1,dateprev1,jprev2,mprev2,anprev2,dateprev2);
+                  jprev1,mprev1,anprev1,dateprev1, dateproj1, dateback1,jprev2,mprev2,anprev2,dateprev2,dateproj2, dateback2);
      /*------------ free_vector  -------------*/
      /*  chdir(path); */
- Line 11671  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 12228  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
      k=1;
      varprob(optionfilefiname, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, bage, fage,k,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,strstart);
-     /* Prevalence for each covariates in probs[age][status][cov] */
+     /* Prevalence for each covariate combination in probs[age][status][cov] */
-     probs= ma3x(1,AGESUP,1,nlstate+ndeath, 1,ncovcombmax);
+     probs= ma3x(AGEINF,AGESUP,1,nlstate+ndeath, 1,ncovcombmax);
-     for(i=1;i<=AGESUP;i++)
+     for(i=AGEINF;i<=AGESUP;i++)
        for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) /* ndeath is useless but a necessity to be compared with mobaverages */
          for(k=1;k<=ncovcombmax;k++)
            probs[i][j][k]=0.;
-     prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemaxpar, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
+     prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemaxpar, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode,
+                ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
      if (mobilav!=0 ||mobilavproj !=0 ) {
-       mobaverages= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,nlstate+ndeath, 1,ncovcombmax);
+       mobaverages= ma3x(AGEINF, AGESUP,1,nlstate+ndeath, 1,ncovcombmax);
-       for(i=1;i<=AGESUP;i++)
+       for(i=AGEINF;i<=AGESUP;i++)
-         for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
+         for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
            for(k=1;k<=ncovcombmax;k++)
              mobaverages[i][j][k]=0.;
        mobaverage=mobaverages;
- Line 11692  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 12250  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
            fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
            printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
          }
-       }
+       } else if (mobilavproj !=0) {
-       /* else if(mobilavproj==-1){ /\* Forcing raw observed prevalences *\/ */
-       /*        for(i=1;i<=AGESUP;i++) */
-       /*          for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++) */
-       /*            for(k=1;k<=ncovcombmax;k++) */
-       /*              mobaverages[i][j][k]=probs[i][j][k]; */
-       /*        /\* /\\* Prevalence for each covariates in probs[age][status][cov] *\\/ *\/ */
-       /*        /\* prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemaxpar, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass); *\/ */
-       /* } */
-       else if (mobilavproj !=0) {
          printf("Movingaveraging projected observed prevalence\n");
          fprintf(ficlog,"Movingaveraging projected observed prevalence\n");
          if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, agemaxpar, mobaverage, mobilavproj)!=0){
            fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilavproj=%d\n",mobilavproj);
            printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilavproj=%d\n",mobilavproj);
          }
+       }else{
+         printf("Internal error moving average\n");
+         fflush(stdout);
+         exit(1);
        }
      }/* end if moving average */
      /*---------- Forecasting ------------------*/
-     /*if((stepm == 1) && (strcmp(model,".")==0)){*/
      if(prevfcast==1){
        /*    if(stepm ==1){*/
-       prevforecast(fileresu, anproj1, mproj1, jproj1, agemin, agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2, mobilavproj, bage, fage, firstpass, lastpass, anproj2, p, cptcoveff);
+       prevforecast(fileresu, anproj1, mproj1, jproj1, agemin, agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2, mobilavproj, mobaverage, bage, fage, firstpass, lastpass, anproj2, p, cptcoveff);
      }
+     /* Backcasting */
      if(backcast==1){
        ddnewms=matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
        ddoldms=matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
- Line 11725  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 12279  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
        /*--------------- Back Prevalence limit  (period or stable prevalence) --------------*/
        bprlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
        back_prevalence_limit(p, bprlim,  ageminpar, agemaxpar, ftolpl, &ncvyear, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass, mobilavproj);
        fclose(ficresplb);
        hBijx(p, bage, fage, mobaverage);
        fclose(ficrespijb);
-       free_matrix(bprlim,1,nlstate,1,nlstate); /*here or after loop ? */
-       /* prevbackforecast(fileresu, anback1, mback1, jback1, agemin, agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2, mobilavproj,
+       prevbackforecast(fileresu, mobaverage, anback1, mback1, jback1, agemin, agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2,
-          bage, fage, firstpass, lastpass, anback2, p, cptcoveff); */
+                        mobilavproj, bage, fage, firstpass, lastpass, anback2, p, cptcoveff);
+       varbprlim(fileresu, nresult, mobaverage, mobilavproj, bage, fage, bprlim, &ncvyear, ftolpl, p, matcov, delti, stepm, cptcoveff);
+       free_matrix(bprlim,1,nlstate,1,nlstate); /*here or after loop ? */
        free_matrix(ddnewms, 1, nlstate+ndeath, 1, nlstate+ndeath);
        free_matrix(ddsavms, 1, nlstate+ndeath, 1, nlstate+ndeath);
        free_matrix(ddoldms, 1, nlstate+ndeath, 1, nlstate+ndeath);
-     }
+     }    /* end  Backcasting */
      /* ------ Other prevalence ratios------------ */
- Line 11790  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 12348  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
      fclose(ficreseij);
      printf("done evsij\n");fflush(stdout);
      fprintf(ficlog,"done evsij\n");fflush(ficlog);
      /*---------- State-specific expectancies and variances ------------*/
      strcpy(filerest,"T_");
      strcat(filerest,fileresu);
      if((ficrest=fopen(filerest,"w"))==NULL) {
- Line 11802  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 12360  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
      }
      printf("Computing Total Life expectancies with their standard errors: file '%s' ...\n", filerest); fflush(stdout);
      fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Total Life expectancies with their standard errors: file '%s' ...\n", filerest); fflush(ficlog);
      strcpy(fileresstde,"STDE_");
      strcat(fileresstde,fileresu);
      if((ficresstdeij=fopen(fileresstde,"w"))==NULL) {
- Line 11831  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 12387  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
      printf("      Computing Variance-covariance of State-specific Expectancies: file '%s' ... ", fileresv);fflush(stdout);
      fprintf(ficlog,"      Computing Variance-covariance of State-specific Expectancies: file '%s' ... ", fileresv);fflush(ficlog);
-     /*for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
-       for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*/
      i1=pow(2,cptcoveff); /* Number of combination of dummy covariates */
      if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
- Line 11895  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 12448  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
        vareij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
        pstamp(ficrest);
+       epj=vector(1,nlstate+1);
        for(vpopbased=0; vpopbased <= popbased; vpopbased++){ /* Done for vpopbased=0 and vpopbased=1 if popbased==1*/
          oldm=oldms;savm=savms; /* ZZ Segmentation fault */
          cptcod= 0; /* To be deleted */
- Line 11911  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 12464  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
          for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrest,"e.%d (std) ",i);
          fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
          /* printf("Which p?\n"); for(i=1;i<=npar;i++)printf("p[i=%d]=%lf,",i,p[i]);printf("\n"); */
-         epj=vector(1,nlstate+1);
          printf("Computing age specific period (stable) prevalences in each health state \n");
          fprintf(ficlog,"Computing age specific period (stable) prevalences in each health state \n");
          for(age=bage; age <=fage ;age++){
- Line 11949  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 12501  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
            fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
          }
        } /* End vpopbased */
+       free_vector(epj,1,nlstate+1);
        free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
        free_ma3x(vareij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
-       free_vector(epj,1,nlstate+1);
        printf("done selection\n");fflush(stdout);
        fprintf(ficlog,"done selection\n");fflush(ficlog);
-       /*}*/
      } /* End k selection */
      printf("done State-specific expectancies\n");fflush(stdout);
      fprintf(ficlog,"done State-specific expectancies\n");fflush(ficlog);
-     /*------- Variance of period (stable) prevalence------*/
+     /* variance-covariance of period prevalence*/
+     varprlim(fileresu, nresult, mobaverage, mobilavproj, bage, fage, prlim, &ncvyear, ftolpl, p, matcov, delti, stepm, cptcoveff);
-     strcpy(fileresvpl,"VPL_");
-     strcat(fileresvpl,fileresu);
-     if((ficresvpl=fopen(fileresvpl,"w"))==NULL) {
-       printf("Problem with variance of period (stable) prevalence  resultfile: %s\n", fileresvpl);
-       exit(0);
-     }
-     printf("Computing Variance-covariance of period (stable) prevalence: file '%s' ...", fileresvpl);fflush(stdout);
-     fprintf(ficlog, "Computing Variance-covariance of period (stable) prevalence: file '%s' ...", fileresvpl);fflush(ficlog);
-     /*for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
-       for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){*/
-     i1=pow(2,cptcoveff);
-     if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
-     for(nres=1; nres <= nresult; nres++) /* For each resultline */
-     for(k=1; k<=i1;k++){
-       if(i1 != 1 && TKresult[nres]!= k)
-         continue;
-       fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n#****** ");
-       printf("\n#****** ");
-       fprintf(ficlog,"\n#****** ");
-       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
-         fprintf(ficresvpl,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
-         fprintf(ficlog,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
-         printf("V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtabm(k,j)]);
-       }
-       for (j=1; j<= nsq; j++){ /* For each selected (single) quantitative value */
-         printf(" V%d=%f ",Tvqresult[nres][j],Tqresult[nres][j]);
-         fprintf(ficresvpl," V%d=%f ",Tvqresult[nres][j],Tqresult[nres][j]);
-         fprintf(ficlog," V%d=%f ",Tvqresult[nres][j],Tqresult[nres][j]);
-       }
-       fprintf(ficresvpl,"******\n");
-       printf("******\n");
-       fprintf(ficlog,"******\n");
-       varpl=matrix(1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
-       oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
-       varprevlim(fileres, varpl, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl, &ncvyear, k, strstart, nres);
-       free_matrix(varpl,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
-       /*}*/
-     }
-     fclose(ficresvpl);
-     printf("done variance-covariance of period prevalence\n");fflush(stdout);
-     fprintf(ficlog,"done variance-covariance of period prevalence\n");fflush(ficlog);
      free_vector(weight,1,n);
      free_imatrix(Tvard,1,NCOVMAX,1,2);
- Line 12026  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 12532  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
      /*---------- End : free ----------------*/
      if (mobilav!=0 ||mobilavproj !=0)
-       free_ma3x(mobaverages,1, AGESUP,1,nlstate+ndeath, 1,ncovcombmax); /* We need to have a squared matrix with prevalence of the dead! */
+       free_ma3x(mobaverages,AGEINF, AGESUP,1,nlstate+ndeath, 1,ncovcombmax); /* We need to have a squared matrix with prevalence of the dead! */
-     free_ma3x(probs,1,AGESUP,1,nlstate+ndeath, 1,ncovcombmax);
+     free_ma3x(probs,AGEINF,AGESUP,1,nlstate+ndeath, 1,ncovcombmax);
      free_matrix(prlim,1,nlstate,1,nlstate); /*here or after loop ? */
      free_matrix(pmmij,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
    }  /* mle==-3 arrives here for freeing */
- Line 12035  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
+ Line 12541  Please run with mle=-1 to get a correct
    free_matrix(oldms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
    free_matrix(newms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
    free_matrix(savms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
-   free_ma3x(cotqvar,1,maxwav,1,nqtv,1,n);
+   if(ntv+nqtv>=1)free_ma3x(cotvar,1,maxwav,1,ntv+nqtv,1,n);
-   free_ma3x(cotvar,1,maxwav,1,ntv+nqtv,1,n);
+   if(nqtv>=1)free_ma3x(cotqvar,1,maxwav,1,nqtv,1,n);
-   free_matrix(coqvar,1,maxwav,1,n);
+   if(nqv>=1)free_matrix(coqvar,1,nqv,1,n);
    free_matrix(covar,0,NCOVMAX,1,n);
    free_matrix(matcov,1,npar,1,npar);
    free_matrix(hess,1,npar,1,npar);
    /*free_vector(delti,1,npar);*/
    free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
    free_matrix(agev,1,maxwav,1,imx);
+   free_ma3x(paramstart,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
    free_ma3x(param,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
    free_ivector(ncodemax,1,NCOVMAX);

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	Added in v.1.278