Diff for /imach/src/imach.c between versions 1.5 and 1.96

version 1.5, 2001/05/02 17:42:45 version 1.96, 2003/07/15 15:38:55
Line 1 Line 1
      /* $Id$
 /*********************** Imach **************************************            $State$
   This program computes Healthy Life Expectancies from cross-longitudinal    $Log$
   data. Cross-longitudinal consist in a first survey ("cross") where    Revision 1.96  2003/07/15 15:38:55  brouard
   individuals from different ages are interviewed on their health status    * imach.c (Repository): Errors in subdirf, 2, 3 while printing tmpout is
   or degree of  disability. At least a second wave of interviews    rewritten within the same printf. Workaround: many printfs.
   ("longitudinal") should  measure each new individual health status.  
   Health expectancies are computed from the transistions observed between    Revision 1.95  2003/07/08 07:54:34  brouard
   waves and are computed for each degree of severity of disability (number    * imach.c (Repository):
   of life states). More degrees you consider, more time is necessary to    (Repository): Using imachwizard code to output a more meaningful covariance
   reach the Maximum Likelihood of the parameters involved in the model.    matrix (cov(a12,c31) instead of numbers.
   The simplest model is the multinomial logistic model where pij is  
   the probabibility to be observed in state j at the second wave conditional    Revision 1.94  2003/06/27 13:00:02  brouard
   to be observed in state i at the first wave. Therefore the model is:    Just cleaning
   log(pij/pii)= aij + bij*age+ cij*sex + etc , where 'age' is age and 'sex'  
   is a covariate. If you want to have a more complex model than "constant and    Revision 1.93  2003/06/25 16:33:55  brouard
   age", you should modify the program where the markup    (Module): On windows (cygwin) function asctime_r doesn't
     *Covariates have to be included here again* invites you to do it.    exist so I changed back to asctime which exists.
   More covariates you add, less is the speed of the convergence.    (Module): Version 0.96b
   
   The advantage that this computer programme claims, comes from that if the    Revision 1.92  2003/06/25 16:30:45  brouard
   delay between waves is not identical for each individual, or if some    (Module): On windows (cygwin) function asctime_r doesn't
   individual missed an interview, the information is not rounded or lost, but    exist so I changed back to asctime which exists.
   taken into account using an interpolation or extrapolation.  
   hPijx is the probability to be    Revision 1.91  2003/06/25 15:30:29  brouard
   observed in state i at age x+h conditional to the observed state i at age    * imach.c (Repository): Duplicated warning errors corrected.
   x. The delay 'h' can be split into an exact number (nh*stepm) of    (Repository): Elapsed time after each iteration is now output. It
   unobserved intermediate  states. This elementary transition (by month or    helps to forecast when convergence will be reached. Elapsed time
   quarter trimester, semester or year) is model as a multinomial logistic.    is stamped in powell.  We created a new html file for the graphs
   The hPx matrix is simply the matrix product of nh*stepm elementary matrices    concerning matrix of covariance. It has extension -cov.htm.
   and the contribution of each individual to the likelihood is simply hPijx.  
     Revision 1.90  2003/06/24 12:34:15  brouard
   Also this programme outputs the covariance matrix of the parameters but also    (Module): Some bugs corrected for windows. Also, when
   of the life expectancies. It also computes the prevalence limits.    mle=-1 a template is output in file "or"mypar.txt with the design
      of the covariance matrix to be input.
   Authors: Nicolas Brouard (brouard@ined.fr) and Agnès Lièvre (lievre@ined.fr).  
            Institut national d'études démographiques, Paris.    Revision 1.89  2003/06/24 12:30:52  brouard
   This software have been partly granted by Euro-REVES, a concerted action    (Module): Some bugs corrected for windows. Also, when
   from the European Union.    mle=-1 a template is output in file "or"mypar.txt with the design
   It is copyrighted identically to a GNU software product, ie programme and    of the covariance matrix to be input.
   software can be distributed freely for non commercial use. Latest version  
   can be accessed at http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach .    Revision 1.88  2003/06/23 17:54:56  brouard
   **********************************************************************/    * imach.c (Repository): Create a sub-directory where all the secondary files are. Only imach, htm, gp and r(imach) are on the main directory. Correct time and other things.
    
 #include <math.h>    Revision 1.87  2003/06/18 12:26:01  brouard
 #include <stdio.h>    Version 0.96
 #include <stdlib.h>  
 #include <unistd.h>    Revision 1.86  2003/06/17 20:04:08  brouard
     (Module): Change position of html and gnuplot routines and added
 #define MAXLINE 256    routine fileappend.
 #define FILENAMELENGTH 80  
 /*#define DEBUG*/    Revision 1.85  2003/06/17 13:12:43  brouard
 #define windows    * imach.c (Repository): Check when date of death was earlier that
 #define GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH              -1      /* empty path */    current date of interview. It may happen when the death was just
 #define GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD              -2      /* cannot get cwd */    prior to the death. In this case, dh was negative and likelihood
     was wrong (infinity). We still send an "Error" but patch by
     assuming that the date of death was just one stepm after the
     interview.
 #define MAXPARM 30 /* Maximum number of parameters for the optimization */    (Repository): Because some people have very long ID (first column)
 #define NPARMAX 64 /* (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel */    we changed int to long in num[] and we added a new lvector for
     memory allocation. But we also truncated to 8 characters (left
 #define NINTERVMAX 8    truncation)
 #define NLSTATEMAX 8 /* Maximum number of live states (for func) */    (Repository): No more line truncation errors.
 #define NDEATHMAX 8 /* Maximum number of dead states (for func) */  
 #define NCOVMAX 8 /* Maximum number of covariates */    Revision 1.84  2003/06/13 21:44:43  brouard
 #define MAXN 20000    * imach.c (Repository): Replace "freqsummary" at a correct
 #define YEARM 12. /* Number of months per year */    place. It differs from routine "prevalence" which may be called
 #define AGESUP 130    many times. Probs is memory consuming and must be used with
 #define AGEBASE 40    parcimony.
     Version 0.95a3 (should output exactly the same maximization than 0.8a2)
   
 int nvar;    Revision 1.83  2003/06/10 13:39:11  lievre
 static int cptcov;    *** empty log message ***
 int cptcovn;  
 int npar=NPARMAX;    Revision 1.82  2003/06/05 15:57:20  brouard
 int nlstate=2; /* Number of live states */    Add log in  imach.c and  fullversion number is now printed.
 int ndeath=1; /* Number of dead states */  
 int ncovmodel, ncov;     /* Total number of covariables including constant a12*1 +b12*x ncovmodel=2 */  */
   /*
 int *wav; /* Number of waves for this individuual 0 is possible */     Interpolated Markov Chain
 int maxwav; /* Maxim number of waves */  
 int mle, weightopt;    Short summary of the programme:
 int **mw; /* mw[mi][i] is number of the mi wave for this individual */    
 int **dh; /* dh[mi][i] is number of steps between mi,mi+1 for this individual */    This program computes Healthy Life Expectancies from
 double **oldm, **newm, **savm; /* Working pointers to matrices */    cross-longitudinal data. Cross-longitudinal data consist in: -1- a
 double **oldms, **newms, **savms; /* Fixed working pointers to matrices */    first survey ("cross") where individuals from different ages are
 FILE *fic,*ficpar, *ficparo,*ficres,  *ficrespl, *ficrespij, *ficrest;    interviewed on their health status or degree of disability (in the
 FILE *ficgp, *fichtm;    case of a health survey which is our main interest) -2- at least a
 FILE *ficreseij;    second wave of interviews ("longitudinal") which measure each change
   char filerese[FILENAMELENGTH];    (if any) in individual health status.  Health expectancies are
  FILE  *ficresvij;    computed from the time spent in each health state according to a
   char fileresv[FILENAMELENGTH];    model. More health states you consider, more time is necessary to reach the
  FILE  *ficresvpl;    Maximum Likelihood of the parameters involved in the model.  The
   char fileresvpl[FILENAMELENGTH];    simplest model is the multinomial logistic model where pij is the
     probability to be observed in state j at the second wave
     conditional to be observed in state i at the first wave. Therefore
     the model is: log(pij/pii)= aij + bij*age+ cij*sex + etc , where
     'age' is age and 'sex' is a covariate. If you want to have a more
 #define NR_END 1    complex model than "constant and age", you should modify the program
 #define FREE_ARG char*    where the markup *Covariates have to be included here again* invites
 #define FTOL 1.0e-10    you to do it.  More covariates you add, slower the
     convergence.
 #define NRANSI  
 #define ITMAX 200    The advantage of this computer programme, compared to a simple
     multinomial logistic model, is clear when the delay between waves is not
 #define TOL 2.0e-4    identical for each individual. Also, if a individual missed an
     intermediate interview, the information is lost, but taken into
 #define CGOLD 0.3819660    account using an interpolation or extrapolation.  
 #define ZEPS 1.0e-10  
 #define SHFT(a,b,c,d) (a)=(b);(b)=(c);(c)=(d);    hPijx is the probability to be observed in state i at age x+h
     conditional to the observed state i at age x. The delay 'h' can be
 #define GOLD 1.618034    split into an exact number (nh*stepm) of unobserved intermediate
 #define GLIMIT 100.0    states. This elementary transition (by month, quarter,
 #define TINY 1.0e-20    semester or year) is modelled as a multinomial logistic.  The hPx
     matrix is simply the matrix product of nh*stepm elementary matrices
 static double maxarg1,maxarg2;    and the contribution of each individual to the likelihood is simply
 #define FMAX(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)>(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))    hPijx.
 #define FMIN(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)<(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))  
      Also this programme outputs the covariance matrix of the parameters but also
 #define SIGN(a,b) ((b)>0.0 ? fabs(a) : -fabs(a))    of the life expectancies. It also computes the stable prevalence. 
 #define rint(a) floor(a+0.5)    
     Authors: Nicolas Brouard (brouard@ined.fr) and Agnès Lièvre (lievre@ined.fr).
 static double sqrarg;             Institut national d'études démographiques, Paris.
 #define SQR(a) ((sqrarg=(a)) == 0.0 ? 0.0 :sqrarg*sqrarg)    This software have been partly granted by Euro-REVES, a concerted action
 #define SWAP(a,b) {temp=(a);(a)=(b);(b)=temp;}    from the European Union.
     It is copyrighted identically to a GNU software product, ie programme and
 int imx;    software can be distributed freely for non commercial use. Latest version
 int stepm;    can be accessed at http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach .
 /* Stepm, step in month: minimum step interpolation*/  
     Help to debug: LD_PRELOAD=/usr/local/lib/libnjamd.so ./imach foo.imach
 int m,nb;    or better on gdb : set env LD_PRELOAD=/usr/local/lib/libnjamd.so
 int *num, firstpass=0, lastpass=4,*cod, *ncodemax;    
 double **agev,*moisnais, *annais, *moisdc, *andc,**mint, **anint;    **********************************************************************/
 double **pmmij;  /*
     main
 double *weight;    read parameterfile
 int **s; /* Status */    read datafile
 double *agedc, **covar, idx;    concatwav
 int **nbcode, *Tcode, *Tvar, **codtab;    freqsummary
     if (mle >= 1)
 double ftol=FTOL; /* Tolerance for computing Max Likelihood */      mlikeli
 double ftolhess; /* Tolerance for computing hessian */    print results files
     if mle==1 
        computes hessian
 static  int split( char *path, char *dirc, char *name )    read end of parameter file: agemin, agemax, bage, fage, estepm
 {        begin-prev-date,...
    char *s;                             /* pointer */    open gnuplot file
    int  l1, l2;                         /* length counters */    open html file
     stable prevalence
    l1 = strlen( path );                 /* length of path */     for age prevalim()
    if ( l1 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );    h Pij x
    s = strrchr( path, '\\' );           /* find last / */    variance of p varprob
    if ( s == NULL ) {                   /* no directory, so use current */    forecasting if prevfcast==1 prevforecast call prevalence()
 #if     defined(__bsd__)                /* get current working directory */    health expectancies
       extern char       *getwd( );    Variance-covariance of DFLE
     prevalence()
       if ( getwd( dirc ) == NULL ) {     movingaverage()
 #else    varevsij() 
       extern char       *getcwd( );    if popbased==1 varevsij(,popbased)
     total life expectancies
       if ( getcwd( dirc, FILENAME_MAX ) == NULL ) {    Variance of stable prevalence
 #endif   end
          return( GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD );  */
       }  
       strcpy( name, path );             /* we've got it */  
    } else {                             /* strip direcotry from path */  
       s++;                              /* after this, the filename */   
       l2 = strlen( s );                 /* length of filename */  #include <math.h>
       if ( l2 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );  #include <stdio.h>
       strcpy( name, s );                /* save file name */  #include <stdlib.h>
       strncpy( dirc, path, l1 - l2 );   /* now the directory */  #include <unistd.h>
       dirc[l1-l2] = 0;                  /* add zero */  
    }  #include <sys/time.h>
    l1 = strlen( dirc );                 /* length of directory */  #include <time.h>
    if ( dirc[l1-1] != '\\' ) { dirc[l1] = '\\'; dirc[l1+1] = 0; }  #include "timeval.h"
    return( 0 );                         /* we're done */  
 }  /* #include <libintl.h> */
   /* #define _(String) gettext (String) */
   
 /******************************************/  #define MAXLINE 256
   #define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "gnuplot"
 void replace(char *s, char*t)  /*#define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "..\\gp37mgw\\wgnuplot"*/
 {  #define FILENAMELENGTH 132
   int i;  /*#define DEBUG*/
   int lg=20;  /*#define windows*/
   i=0;  #define GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH              -1      /* empty path */
   lg=strlen(t);  #define GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD              -2      /* cannot get cwd */
   for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {  
     (s[i] = t[i]);  #define MAXPARM 30 /* Maximum number of parameters for the optimization */
     if (t[i]== '\\') s[i]='/';  #define NPARMAX 64 /* (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel */
   }  
 }  #define NINTERVMAX 8
   #define NLSTATEMAX 8 /* Maximum number of live states (for func) */
 int nbocc(char *s, char occ)  #define NDEATHMAX 8 /* Maximum number of dead states (for func) */
 {  #define NCOVMAX 8 /* Maximum number of covariates */
   int i,j=0;  #define MAXN 20000
   int lg=20;  #define YEARM 12. /* Number of months per year */
   i=0;  #define AGESUP 130
   lg=strlen(s);  #define AGEBASE 40
   for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {  #ifdef unix
   if  (s[i] == occ ) j++;  #define DIRSEPARATOR '/'
   }  #define ODIRSEPARATOR '\\'
   return j;  #else
 }  #define DIRSEPARATOR '\\'
   #define ODIRSEPARATOR '/'
 void cutv(char *u,char *v, char*t, char occ)  #endif
 {  
   int i,lg,j,p;  /* $Id$ */
   i=0;  /* $State$ */
   for(j=0; j<=strlen(t)-1; j++) {  
     if((t[j]!= occ) && (t[j+1]== occ)) p=j+1;  char version[]="Imach version 0.96c, July 2003, INED-EUROREVES ";
   }  char fullversion[]="$Revision$ $Date$"; 
   int erreur, nberr=0, nbwarn=0; /* Error number, number of errors number of warnings  */
   lg=strlen(t);  int nvar;
   for(j=0; j<p; j++) {  int cptcovn=0, cptcovage=0, cptcoveff=0,cptcov;
     (u[j] = t[j]);  int npar=NPARMAX;
     u[p]='\0';  int nlstate=2; /* Number of live states */
   }  int ndeath=1; /* Number of dead states */
   int ncovmodel, ncovcol;     /* Total number of covariables including constant a12*1 +b12*x ncovmodel=2 */
    for(j=0; j<= lg; j++) {  int popbased=0;
     if (j>=(p+1))(v[j-p-1] = t[j]);  
   }  int *wav; /* Number of waves for this individuual 0 is possible */
 }  int maxwav; /* Maxim number of waves */
   int jmin, jmax; /* min, max spacing between 2 waves */
 /********************** nrerror ********************/  int gipmx, gsw; /* Global variables on the number of contributions 
                      to the likelihood and the sum of weights (done by funcone)*/
 void nrerror(char error_text[])  int mle, weightopt;
 {  int **mw; /* mw[mi][i] is number of the mi wave for this individual */
   fprintf(stderr,"ERREUR ...\n");  int **dh; /* dh[mi][i] is number of steps between mi,mi+1 for this individual */
   fprintf(stderr,"%s\n",error_text);  int **bh; /* bh[mi][i] is the bias (+ or -) for this individual if the delay between
   exit(1);             * wave mi and wave mi+1 is not an exact multiple of stepm. */
 }  double jmean; /* Mean space between 2 waves */
 /*********************** vector *******************/  double **oldm, **newm, **savm; /* Working pointers to matrices */
 double *vector(int nl, int nh)  double **oldms, **newms, **savms; /* Fixed working pointers to matrices */
 {  FILE *fic,*ficpar, *ficparo,*ficres,  *ficrespl, *ficrespij, *ficrest,*ficresf,*ficrespop;
   double *v;  FILE *ficlog, *ficrespow;
   v=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));  int globpr; /* Global variable for printing or not */
   if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in vector");  double fretone; /* Only one call to likelihood */
   return v-nl+NR_END;  long ipmx; /* Number of contributions */
 }  double sw; /* Sum of weights */
   char fileresilk[FILENAMELENGTH]; /* File of individual contributions to the likelihood */
 /************************ free vector ******************/  FILE *ficresilk;
 void free_vector(double*v, int nl, int nh)  FILE *ficgp,*ficresprob,*ficpop, *ficresprobcov, *ficresprobcor;
 {  FILE *ficresprobmorprev;
   free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));  FILE *fichtm, *fichtmcov; /* Html File */
 }  FILE *ficreseij;
   char filerese[FILENAMELENGTH];
 /************************ivector *******************************/  FILE  *ficresvij;
 int *ivector(long nl,long nh)  char fileresv[FILENAMELENGTH];
 {  FILE  *ficresvpl;
   int *v;  char fileresvpl[FILENAMELENGTH];
   v=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));  char title[MAXLINE];
   if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");  char optionfile[FILENAMELENGTH], datafile[FILENAMELENGTH],  filerespl[FILENAMELENGTH];
   return v-nl+NR_END;  char optionfilext[10], optionfilefiname[FILENAMELENGTH], plotcmd[FILENAMELENGTH];
 }  char tmpout[FILENAMELENGTH],  tmpout2[FILENAMELENGTH]; 
   char command[FILENAMELENGTH];
 /******************free ivector **************************/  int  outcmd=0;
 void free_ivector(int *v, long nl, long nh)  
 {  char fileres[FILENAMELENGTH], filerespij[FILENAMELENGTH], filereso[FILENAMELENGTH], rfileres[FILENAMELENGTH];
   free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));  
 }  char filelog[FILENAMELENGTH]; /* Log file */
   char filerest[FILENAMELENGTH];
 /******************* imatrix *******************************/  char fileregp[FILENAMELENGTH];
 int **imatrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)  char popfile[FILENAMELENGTH];
      /* allocate a int matrix with subscript range m[nrl..nrh][ncl..nch] */  
 {  char optionfilegnuplot[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilehtm[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilehtmcov[FILENAMELENGTH] ;
   long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1,ncol=nch-ncl+1;  
   int **m;  struct timeval start_time, end_time, curr_time, last_time, forecast_time;
    struct timezone tzp;
   /* allocate pointers to rows */  extern int gettimeofday();
   m=(int **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(int*)));  struct tm tmg, tm, tmf, *gmtime(), *localtime();
   if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");  long time_value;
   m += NR_END;  extern long time();
   m -= nrl;  char strcurr[80], strfor[80];
    
    #define NR_END 1
   /* allocate rows and set pointers to them */  #define FREE_ARG char*
   m[nrl]=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));  #define FTOL 1.0e-10
   if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");  
   m[nrl] += NR_END;  #define NRANSI 
   m[nrl] -= ncl;  #define ITMAX 200 
    
   for(i=nrl+1;i<=nrh;i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;  #define TOL 2.0e-4 
    
   /* return pointer to array of pointers to rows */  #define CGOLD 0.3819660 
   return m;  #define ZEPS 1.0e-10 
 }  #define SHFT(a,b,c,d) (a)=(b);(b)=(c);(c)=(d); 
   
 /****************** free_imatrix *************************/  #define GOLD 1.618034 
 void free_imatrix(m,nrl,nrh,ncl,nch)  #define GLIMIT 100.0 
       int **m;  #define TINY 1.0e-20 
       long nch,ncl,nrh,nrl;  
      /* free an int matrix allocated by imatrix() */  static double maxarg1,maxarg2;
 {  #define FMAX(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)>(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))
   free((FREE_ARG) (m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));  #define FMIN(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)<(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))
   free((FREE_ARG) (m+nrl-NR_END));    
 }  #define SIGN(a,b) ((b)>0.0 ? fabs(a) : -fabs(a))
   #define rint(a) floor(a+0.5)
 /******************* matrix *******************************/  
 double **matrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)  static double sqrarg;
 {  #define SQR(a) ((sqrarg=(a)) == 0.0 ? 0.0 :sqrarg*sqrarg)
   long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1;  #define SWAP(a,b) {temp=(a);(a)=(b);(b)=temp;} 
   double **m;  
   int imx; 
   m=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));  int stepm;
   if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");  /* Stepm, step in month: minimum step interpolation*/
   m += NR_END;  
   m -= nrl;  int estepm;
   /* Estepm, step in month to interpolate survival function in order to approximate Life Expectancy*/
   m[nrl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));  
   if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");  int m,nb;
   m[nrl] += NR_END;  long *num;
   m[nrl] -= ncl;  int firstpass=0, lastpass=4,*cod, *ncodemax, *Tage;
   double **agev,*moisnais, *annais, *moisdc, *andc,**mint, **anint;
   for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;  double **pmmij, ***probs;
   return m;  double dateintmean=0;
 }  
   double *weight;
 /*************************free matrix ************************/  int **s; /* Status */
 void free_matrix(double **m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)  double *agedc, **covar, idx;
 {  int **nbcode, *Tcode, *Tvar, **codtab, **Tvard, *Tprod, cptcovprod, *Tvaraff;
   free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));  
   free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));  double ftol=FTOL; /* Tolerance for computing Max Likelihood */
 }  double ftolhess; /* Tolerance for computing hessian */
   
 /******************* ma3x *******************************/  /**************** split *************************/
 double ***ma3x(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long nll, long nlh)  static  int split( char *path, char *dirc, char *name, char *ext, char *finame )
 {  {
   long i, j, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1, nlay=nlh-nll+1;    char  *ss;                            /* pointer */
   double ***m;    int   l1, l2;                         /* length counters */
   
   m=(double ***) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));    l1 = strlen(path );                   /* length of path */
   if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");    if ( l1 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );
   m += NR_END;    ss= strrchr( path, DIRSEPARATOR );            /* find last / */
   m -= nrl;    if ( ss == NULL ) {                   /* no directory, so use current */
       /*if(strrchr(path, ODIRSEPARATOR )==NULL)
   m[nrl]=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));        printf("Warning you should use %s as a separator\n",DIRSEPARATOR);*/
   if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");      /* get current working directory */
   m[nrl] += NR_END;      /*    extern  char* getcwd ( char *buf , int len);*/
   m[nrl] -= ncl;      if ( getcwd( dirc, FILENAME_MAX ) == NULL ) {
         return( GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD );
   for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;      }
       strcpy( name, path );               /* we've got it */
   m[nrl][ncl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol*nlay+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));    } else {                              /* strip direcotry from path */
   if (!m[nrl][ncl]) nrerror("allocation failure 3 in matrix()");      ss++;                               /* after this, the filename */
   m[nrl][ncl] += NR_END;      l2 = strlen( ss );                  /* length of filename */
   m[nrl][ncl] -= nll;      if ( l2 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );
   for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++)      strcpy( name, ss );         /* save file name */
     m[nrl][j]=m[nrl][j-1]+nlay;      strncpy( dirc, path, l1 - l2 );     /* now the directory */
        dirc[l1-l2] = 0;                    /* add zero */
   for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) {    }
     m[i][ncl]=m[i-1l][ncl]+ncol*nlay;    l1 = strlen( dirc );                  /* length of directory */
     for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++)    /*#ifdef windows
       m[i][j]=m[i][j-1]+nlay;    if ( dirc[l1-1] != '\\' ) { dirc[l1] = '\\'; dirc[l1+1] = 0; }
   }  #else
   return m;    if ( dirc[l1-1] != '/' ) { dirc[l1] = '/'; dirc[l1+1] = 0; }
 }  #endif
     */
 /*************************free ma3x ************************/    ss = strrchr( name, '.' );            /* find last / */
 void free_ma3x(double ***m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch,long nll, long nlh)    ss++;
 {    strcpy(ext,ss);                       /* save extension */
   free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl][ncl]+ nll-NR_END));    l1= strlen( name);
   free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));    l2= strlen(ss)+1;
   free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));    strncpy( finame, name, l1-l2);
 }    finame[l1-l2]= 0;
     return( 0 );                          /* we're done */
 /***************** f1dim *************************/  }
 extern int ncom;  
 extern double *pcom,*xicom;  
 extern double (*nrfunc)(double []);  /******************************************/
    
 double f1dim(double x)  void replace_back_to_slash(char *s, char*t)
 {  {
   int j;    int i;
   double f;    int lg=0;
   double *xt;    i=0;
      lg=strlen(t);
   xt=vector(1,ncom);    for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {
   for (j=1;j<=ncom;j++) xt[j]=pcom[j]+x*xicom[j];      (s[i] = t[i]);
   f=(*nrfunc)(xt);      if (t[i]== '\\') s[i]='/';
   free_vector(xt,1,ncom);    }
   return f;  }
 }  
   int nbocc(char *s, char occ)
 /*****************brent *************************/  {
 double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx, double (*f)(double), double tol,  double *xmin)    int i,j=0;
 {    int lg=20;
   int iter;    i=0;
   double a,b,d,etemp;    lg=strlen(s);
   double fu,fv,fw,fx;    for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {
   double ftemp;    if  (s[i] == occ ) j++;
   double p,q,r,tol1,tol2,u,v,w,x,xm;    }
   double e=0.0;    return j;
    }
   a=(ax < cx ? ax : cx);  
   b=(ax > cx ? ax : cx);  void cutv(char *u,char *v, char*t, char occ)
   x=w=v=bx;  {
   fw=fv=fx=(*f)(x);    /* cuts string t into u and v where u is ended by char occ excluding it
   for (iter=1;iter<=ITMAX;iter++) {       and v is after occ excluding it too : ex cutv(u,v,"abcdef2ghi2j",2)
     xm=0.5*(a+b);       gives u="abcedf" and v="ghi2j" */
     tol2=2.0*(tol1=tol*fabs(x)+ZEPS);    int i,lg,j,p=0;
     /*          if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret)))*/    i=0;
     printf(".");fflush(stdout);    for(j=0; j<=strlen(t)-1; j++) {
 #ifdef DEBUG      if((t[j]!= occ) && (t[j+1]== occ)) p=j+1;
     printf("br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);    }
     /*          if ((fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a)))||(2.0*fabs(fu-ftemp) <= ftol*1.e-2*(fabs(fu)+fabs(ftemp)))) { */  
 #endif    lg=strlen(t);
     if (fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a))){    for(j=0; j<p; j++) {
       *xmin=x;      (u[j] = t[j]);
       return fx;    }
     }       u[p]='\0';
     ftemp=fu;  
     if (fabs(e) > tol1) {     for(j=0; j<= lg; j++) {
       r=(x-w)*(fx-fv);      if (j>=(p+1))(v[j-p-1] = t[j]);
       q=(x-v)*(fx-fw);    }
       p=(x-v)*q-(x-w)*r;  }
       q=2.0*(q-r);  
       if (q > 0.0) p = -p;  /********************** nrerror ********************/
       q=fabs(q);  
       etemp=e;  void nrerror(char error_text[])
       e=d;  {
       if (fabs(p) >= fabs(0.5*q*etemp) || p <= q*(a-x) || p >= q*(b-x))    fprintf(stderr,"ERREUR ...\n");
         d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x));    fprintf(stderr,"%s\n",error_text);
       else {    exit(EXIT_FAILURE);
         d=p/q;  }
         u=x+d;  /*********************** vector *******************/
         if (u-a < tol2 || b-u < tol2)  double *vector(int nl, int nh)
           d=SIGN(tol1,xm-x);  {
       }    double *v;
     } else {    v=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
       d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x));    if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in vector");
     }    return v-nl+NR_END;
     u=(fabs(d) >= tol1 ? x+d : x+SIGN(tol1,d));  }
     fu=(*f)(u);  
     if (fu <= fx) {  /************************ free vector ******************/
       if (u >= x) a=x; else b=x;  void free_vector(double*v, int nl, int nh)
       SHFT(v,w,x,u)  {
         SHFT(fv,fw,fx,fu)    free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
         } else {  }
           if (u < x) a=u; else b=u;  
           if (fu <= fw || w == x) {  /************************ivector *******************************/
             v=w;  int *ivector(long nl,long nh)
             w=u;  {
             fv=fw;    int *v;
             fw=fu;    v=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));
           } else if (fu <= fv || v == x || v == w) {    if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");
             v=u;    return v-nl+NR_END;
             fv=fu;  }
           }  
         }  /******************free ivector **************************/
   }  void free_ivector(int *v, long nl, long nh)
   nrerror("Too many iterations in brent");  {
   *xmin=x;    free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
   return fx;  }
 }  
   /************************lvector *******************************/
 /****************** mnbrak ***********************/  long *lvector(long nl,long nh)
   {
 void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb, double *fc,    long *v;
             double (*func)(double))    v=(long *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(long)));
 {    if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");
   double ulim,u,r,q, dum;    return v-nl+NR_END;
   double fu;  }
    
   *fa=(*func)(*ax);  /******************free lvector **************************/
   *fb=(*func)(*bx);  void free_lvector(long *v, long nl, long nh)
   if (*fb > *fa) {  {
     SHFT(dum,*ax,*bx,dum)    free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
       SHFT(dum,*fb,*fa,dum)  }
       }  
   *cx=(*bx)+GOLD*(*bx-*ax);  /******************* imatrix *******************************/
   *fc=(*func)(*cx);  int **imatrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch) 
   while (*fb > *fc) {       /* allocate a int matrix with subscript range m[nrl..nrh][ncl..nch] */ 
     r=(*bx-*ax)*(*fb-*fc);  { 
     q=(*bx-*cx)*(*fb-*fa);    long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1,ncol=nch-ncl+1; 
     u=(*bx)-((*bx-*cx)*q-(*bx-*ax)*r)/    int **m; 
       (2.0*SIGN(FMAX(fabs(q-r),TINY),q-r));    
     ulim=(*bx)+GLIMIT*(*cx-*bx);    /* allocate pointers to rows */ 
     if ((*bx-u)*(u-*cx) > 0.0) {    m=(int **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(int*))); 
       fu=(*func)(u);    if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()"); 
     } else if ((*cx-u)*(u-ulim) > 0.0) {    m += NR_END; 
       fu=(*func)(u);    m -= nrl; 
       if (fu < *fc) {    
         SHFT(*bx,*cx,u,*cx+GOLD*(*cx-*bx))    
           SHFT(*fb,*fc,fu,(*func)(u))    /* allocate rows and set pointers to them */ 
           }    m[nrl]=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(int))); 
     } else if ((u-ulim)*(ulim-*cx) >= 0.0) {    if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()"); 
       u=ulim;    m[nrl] += NR_END; 
       fu=(*func)(u);    m[nrl] -= ncl; 
     } else {    
       u=(*cx)+GOLD*(*cx-*bx);    for(i=nrl+1;i<=nrh;i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol; 
       fu=(*func)(u);    
     }    /* return pointer to array of pointers to rows */ 
     SHFT(*ax,*bx,*cx,u)    return m; 
       SHFT(*fa,*fb,*fc,fu)  } 
       }  
 }  /****************** free_imatrix *************************/
   void free_imatrix(m,nrl,nrh,ncl,nch)
 /*************** linmin ************************/        int **m;
         long nch,ncl,nrh,nrl; 
 int ncom;       /* free an int matrix allocated by imatrix() */ 
 double *pcom,*xicom;  { 
 double (*nrfunc)(double []);    free((FREE_ARG) (m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END)); 
      free((FREE_ARG) (m+nrl-NR_END)); 
 void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,double (*func)(double []))  } 
 {  
   double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx,  /******************* matrix *******************************/
                double (*f)(double), double tol, double *xmin);  double **matrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)
   double f1dim(double x);  {
   void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb,    long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1;
               double *fc, double (*func)(double));    double **m;
   int j;  
   double xx,xmin,bx,ax;    m=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));
   double fx,fb,fa;    if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");
      m += NR_END;
   ncom=n;    m -= nrl;
   pcom=vector(1,n);  
   xicom=vector(1,n);    m[nrl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
   nrfunc=func;    if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");
   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {    m[nrl] += NR_END;
     pcom[j]=p[j];    m[nrl] -= ncl;
     xicom[j]=xi[j];  
   }    for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;
   ax=0.0;    return m;
   xx=1.0;    /* print *(*(m+1)+70) or print m[1][70]; print m+1 or print &(m[1]) 
   mnbrak(&ax,&xx,&bx,&fa,&fx,&fb,f1dim);     */
   *fret=brent(ax,xx,bx,f1dim,TOL,&xmin);  }
 #ifdef DEBUG  
   printf("retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);  /*************************free matrix ************************/
 #endif  void free_matrix(double **m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)
   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {  {
     xi[j] *= xmin;    free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));
     p[j] += xi[j];    free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));
   }  }
   free_vector(xicom,1,n);  
   free_vector(pcom,1,n);  /******************* ma3x *******************************/
 }  double ***ma3x(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long nll, long nlh)
   {
 /*************** powell ************************/    long i, j, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1, nlay=nlh-nll+1;
 void powell(double p[], double **xi, int n, double ftol, int *iter, double *fret,    double ***m;
             double (*func)(double []))  
 {    m=(double ***) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));
   void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,    if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");
               double (*func)(double []));    m += NR_END;
   int i,ibig,j;    m -= nrl;
   double del,t,*pt,*ptt,*xit;  
   double fp,fptt;    m[nrl]=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
   double *xits;    if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");
   pt=vector(1,n);    m[nrl] += NR_END;
   ptt=vector(1,n);    m[nrl] -= ncl;
   xit=vector(1,n);  
   xits=vector(1,n);    for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;
   *fret=(*func)(p);  
   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) pt[j]=p[j];    m[nrl][ncl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol*nlay+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
   for (*iter=1;;++(*iter)) {    if (!m[nrl][ncl]) nrerror("allocation failure 3 in matrix()");
     fp=(*fret);    m[nrl][ncl] += NR_END;
     ibig=0;    m[nrl][ncl] -= nll;
     del=0.0;    for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++) 
     printf("\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f",*iter,*fret);      m[nrl][j]=m[nrl][j-1]+nlay;
     for (i=1;i<=n;i++)    
       printf(" %d %.12f",i, p[i]);    for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) {
     printf("\n");      m[i][ncl]=m[i-1l][ncl]+ncol*nlay;
     for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {      for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++) 
       for (j=1;j<=n;j++) xit[j]=xi[j][i];        m[i][j]=m[i][j-1]+nlay;
       fptt=(*fret);    }
 #ifdef DEBUG    return m; 
       printf("fret=%lf \n",*fret);    /*  gdb: p *(m+1) <=> p m[1] and p (m+1) <=> p (m+1) <=> p &(m[1])
 #endif             &(m[i][j][k]) <=> *((*(m+i) + j)+k)
       printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);    */
       linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func);  }
       if (fabs(fptt-(*fret)) > del) {  
         del=fabs(fptt-(*fret));  /*************************free ma3x ************************/
         ibig=i;  void free_ma3x(double ***m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch,long nll, long nlh)
       }  {
 #ifdef DEBUG    free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl][ncl]+ nll-NR_END));
       printf("%d %.12e",i,(*fret));    free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));
       for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {    free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));
         xits[j]=FMAX(fabs(p[j]-pt[j]),1.e-5);  }
         printf(" x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);  
       }  /*************** function subdirf ***********/
       for(j=1;j<=n;j++)  char *subdirf(char fileres[])
         printf(" p=%.12e",p[j]);  {
       printf("\n");    /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
 #endif    strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
     }    strcat(tmpout,"/"); /* Add to the right */
     if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret))) {    strcat(tmpout,fileres);
 #ifdef DEBUG    return tmpout;
       int k[2],l;  }
       k[0]=1;  
       k[1]=-1;  /*************** function subdirf2 ***********/
       printf("Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));  char *subdirf2(char fileres[], char *preop)
       for (j=1;j<=n;j++)  {
         printf(" %.12e",p[j]);    
       printf("\n");    /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
       for(l=0;l<=1;l++) {    strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
         for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {    strcat(tmpout,"/");
           ptt[j]=p[j]+(p[j]-pt[j])*k[l];    strcat(tmpout,preop);
           printf("l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);    strcat(tmpout,fileres);
         }    return tmpout;
         printf("func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));  }
       }  
 #endif  /*************** function subdirf3 ***********/
   char *subdirf3(char fileres[], char *preop, char *preop2)
   {
       free_vector(xit,1,n);    
       free_vector(xits,1,n);    /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
       free_vector(ptt,1,n);    strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
       free_vector(pt,1,n);    strcat(tmpout,"/");
       return;    strcat(tmpout,preop);
     }    strcat(tmpout,preop2);
     if (*iter == ITMAX) nrerror("powell exceeding maximum iterations.");    strcat(tmpout,fileres);
     for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {    return tmpout;
       ptt[j]=2.0*p[j]-pt[j];  }
       xit[j]=p[j]-pt[j];  
       pt[j]=p[j];  /***************** f1dim *************************/
     }  extern int ncom; 
     fptt=(*func)(ptt);  extern double *pcom,*xicom;
     if (fptt < fp) {  extern double (*nrfunc)(double []); 
       t=2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del)-del*SQR(fp-fptt);   
       if (t < 0.0) {  double f1dim(double x) 
         linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func);  { 
         for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {    int j; 
           xi[j][ibig]=xi[j][n];    double f;
           xi[j][n]=xit[j];    double *xt; 
         }   
 #ifdef DEBUG    xt=vector(1,ncom); 
         printf("Direction changed  last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);    for (j=1;j<=ncom;j++) xt[j]=pcom[j]+x*xicom[j]; 
         for(j=1;j<=n;j++)    f=(*nrfunc)(xt); 
           printf(" %.12e",xit[j]);    free_vector(xt,1,ncom); 
         printf("\n");    return f; 
 #endif  } 
       }  
     }  /*****************brent *************************/
   }  double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx, double (*f)(double), double tol,  double *xmin) 
 }  { 
     int iter; 
 /**** Prevalence limit ****************/    double a,b,d,etemp;
     double fu,fv,fw,fx;
 double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double x[], double age, double **oldm, double **savm, double ftolpl, int ij)    double ftemp;
 {    double p,q,r,tol1,tol2,u,v,w,x,xm; 
   /* Computes the prevalence limit in each live state at age x by left multiplying the unit    double e=0.0; 
      matrix by transitions matrix until convergence is reached */   
     a=(ax < cx ? ax : cx); 
   int i, ii,j,k;    b=(ax > cx ? ax : cx); 
   double min, max, maxmin, maxmax,sumnew=0.;    x=w=v=bx; 
   double **matprod2();    fw=fv=fx=(*f)(x); 
   double **out, cov[NCOVMAX], **pmij();    for (iter=1;iter<=ITMAX;iter++) { 
   double **newm;      xm=0.5*(a+b); 
   double agefin, delaymax=50 ; /* Max number of years to converge */      tol2=2.0*(tol1=tol*fabs(x)+ZEPS); 
       /*          if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret)))*/
   for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)      printf(".");fflush(stdout);
     for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){      fprintf(ficlog,".");fflush(ficlog);
       oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);  #ifdef DEBUG
     }      printf("br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);
   /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */      fprintf(ficlog,"br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);
   for(agefin=age-stepm/YEARM; agefin>=age-delaymax; agefin=agefin-stepm/YEARM){      /*          if ((fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a)))||(2.0*fabs(fu-ftemp) <= ftol*1.e-2*(fabs(fu)+fabs(ftemp)))) { */
     newm=savm;  #endif
     /* Covariates have to be included here again */      if (fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a))){ 
     cov[1]=1.;        *xmin=x; 
     cov[2]=agefin;        return fx; 
     if (cptcovn>0){      } 
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][k]];/*printf("Tcode[ij]=%d nbcode=%d\n",Tcode[ij],nbcode[k][Tcode[ij]]);*/}      ftemp=fu;
     }      if (fabs(e) > tol1) { 
     out=matprod2(newm, pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate),1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm);        r=(x-w)*(fx-fv); 
         q=(x-v)*(fx-fw); 
     savm=oldm;        p=(x-v)*q-(x-w)*r; 
     oldm=newm;        q=2.0*(q-r); 
     maxmax=0.;        if (q > 0.0) p = -p; 
     for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++){        q=fabs(q); 
       min=1.;        etemp=e; 
       max=0.;        e=d; 
       for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++) {        if (fabs(p) >= fabs(0.5*q*etemp) || p <= q*(a-x) || p >= q*(b-x)) 
         sumnew=0;          d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x)); 
         for(k=1; k<=ndeath; k++) sumnew+=newm[i][nlstate+k];        else { 
         prlim[i][j]= newm[i][j]/(1-sumnew);          d=p/q; 
         max=FMAX(max,prlim[i][j]);          u=x+d; 
         min=FMIN(min,prlim[i][j]);          if (u-a < tol2 || b-u < tol2) 
       }            d=SIGN(tol1,xm-x); 
       maxmin=max-min;        } 
       maxmax=FMAX(maxmax,maxmin);      } else { 
     }        d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x)); 
     if(maxmax < ftolpl){      } 
       return prlim;      u=(fabs(d) >= tol1 ? x+d : x+SIGN(tol1,d)); 
     }      fu=(*f)(u); 
   }      if (fu <= fx) { 
 }        if (u >= x) a=x; else b=x; 
         SHFT(v,w,x,u) 
 /*************** transition probabilities **********/          SHFT(fv,fw,fx,fu) 
           } else { 
 double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate )            if (u < x) a=u; else b=u; 
 {            if (fu <= fw || w == x) { 
   double s1, s2;              v=w; 
   /*double t34;*/              w=u; 
   int i,j,j1, nc, ii, jj;              fv=fw; 
               fw=fu; 
     for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){            } else if (fu <= fv || v == x || v == w) { 
     for(j=1; j<i;j++){              v=u; 
       for (nc=1, s2=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){              fv=fu; 
         /*s2 += param[i][j][nc]*cov[nc];*/            } 
         s2 += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-1)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];          } 
         /*printf("Int j<i s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e\n",s1,s2);*/    } 
       }    nrerror("Too many iterations in brent"); 
       ps[i][j]=s2;    *xmin=x; 
       /*printf("s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e\n",s1,s2);*/    return fx; 
     }  } 
     for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){  
       for (nc=1, s2=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){  /****************** mnbrak ***********************/
         s2 += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-2)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];  
         /*printf("Int j>i s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e %lx %lx\n",s1,s2,s1,s2);*/  void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb, double *fc, 
       }              double (*func)(double)) 
       ps[i][j]=s2;  { 
     }    double ulim,u,r,q, dum;
   }    double fu; 
   for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){   
      s1=0;    *fa=(*func)(*ax); 
     for(j=1; j<i; j++)    *fb=(*func)(*bx); 
       s1+=exp(ps[i][j]);    if (*fb > *fa) { 
     for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)      SHFT(dum,*ax,*bx,dum) 
       s1+=exp(ps[i][j]);        SHFT(dum,*fb,*fa,dum) 
     ps[i][i]=1./(s1+1.);        } 
     for(j=1; j<i; j++)    *cx=(*bx)+GOLD*(*bx-*ax); 
       ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];    *fc=(*func)(*cx); 
     for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)    while (*fb > *fc) { 
       ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];      r=(*bx-*ax)*(*fb-*fc); 
     /* ps[i][nlstate+1]=1.-s1- ps[i][i];*/ /* Sum should be 1 */      q=(*bx-*cx)*(*fb-*fa); 
   } /* end i */      u=(*bx)-((*bx-*cx)*q-(*bx-*ax)*r)/ 
         (2.0*SIGN(FMAX(fabs(q-r),TINY),q-r)); 
   for(ii=nlstate+1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){      ulim=(*bx)+GLIMIT*(*cx-*bx); 
     for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){      if ((*bx-u)*(u-*cx) > 0.0) { 
       ps[ii][jj]=0;        fu=(*func)(u); 
       ps[ii][ii]=1;      } else if ((*cx-u)*(u-ulim) > 0.0) { 
     }        fu=(*func)(u); 
   }        if (fu < *fc) { 
           SHFT(*bx,*cx,u,*cx+GOLD*(*cx-*bx)) 
   /*   for(ii=1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){            SHFT(*fb,*fc,fu,(*func)(u)) 
     for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){            } 
      printf("%lf ",ps[ii][jj]);      } else if ((u-ulim)*(ulim-*cx) >= 0.0) { 
    }        u=ulim; 
     printf("\n ");        fu=(*func)(u); 
     }      } else { 
     printf("\n ");printf("%lf ",cov[2]);*/        u=(*cx)+GOLD*(*cx-*bx); 
 /*        fu=(*func)(u); 
   for(i=1; i<= npar; i++) printf("%f ",x[i]);      } 
   goto end;*/      SHFT(*ax,*bx,*cx,u) 
     return ps;        SHFT(*fa,*fb,*fc,fu) 
 }        } 
   } 
 /**************** Product of 2 matrices ******************/  
   /*************** linmin ************************/
 double **matprod2(double **out, double **in,long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long ncolol, long ncoloh, double **b)  
 {  int ncom; 
   /* Computes the matric product of in(1,nrh-nrl+1)(1,nch-ncl+1) times  double *pcom,*xicom;
      b(1,nch-ncl+1)(1,ncoloh-ncolol+1) into out(...) */  double (*nrfunc)(double []); 
   /* in, b, out are matrice of pointers which should have been initialized   
      before: only the contents of out is modified. The function returns  void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,double (*func)(double [])) 
      a pointer to pointers identical to out */  { 
   long i, j, k;    double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx, 
   for(i=nrl; i<= nrh; i++)                 double (*f)(double), double tol, double *xmin); 
     for(k=ncolol; k<=ncoloh; k++)    double f1dim(double x); 
       for(j=ncl,out[i][k]=0.; j<=nch; j++)    void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb, 
         out[i][k] +=in[i][j]*b[j][k];                double *fc, double (*func)(double)); 
     int j; 
   return out;    double xx,xmin,bx,ax; 
 }    double fx,fb,fa;
    
     ncom=n; 
 /************* Higher Matrix Product ***************/    pcom=vector(1,n); 
     xicom=vector(1,n); 
 double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstepm, double age, int hstepm, double *x, int nlstate, int stepm, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij )    nrfunc=func; 
 {    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
   /* Computes the transition matrix starting at age 'age' over 'nhstepm*hstepm*stepm' month      pcom[j]=p[j]; 
      duration (i.e. until      xicom[j]=xi[j]; 
      age (in years)  age+nhstepm*stepm/12) by multiplying nhstepm*hstepm matrices.    } 
      Output is stored in matrix po[i][j][h] for h every 'hstepm' step    ax=0.0; 
      (typically every 2 years instead of every month which is too big).    xx=1.0; 
      Model is determined by parameters x and covariates have to be    mnbrak(&ax,&xx,&bx,&fa,&fx,&fb,f1dim); 
      included manually here.    *fret=brent(ax,xx,bx,f1dim,TOL,&xmin); 
   #ifdef DEBUG
      */    printf("retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);
     fprintf(ficlog,"retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);
   int i, j, d, h, k;  #endif
   double **out, cov[NCOVMAX];    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
   double **newm;      xi[j] *= xmin; 
       p[j] += xi[j]; 
   /* Hstepm could be zero and should return the unit matrix */    } 
   for (i=1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)    free_vector(xicom,1,n); 
     for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){    free_vector(pcom,1,n); 
       oldm[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);  } 
       po[i][j][0]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);  
     }  char *asc_diff_time(long time_sec, char ascdiff[])
   /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */  {
   for(h=1; h <=nhstepm; h++){    long sec_left, days, hours, minutes;
     for(d=1; d <=hstepm; d++){    days = (time_sec) / (60*60*24);
       newm=savm;    sec_left = (time_sec) % (60*60*24);
       /* Covariates have to be included here again */    hours = (sec_left) / (60*60) ;
       cov[1]=1.;    sec_left = (sec_left) %(60*60);
       cov[2]=age+((h-1)*hstepm + (d-1))*stepm/YEARM;    minutes = (sec_left) /60;
       if (cptcovn>0){    sec_left = (sec_left) % (60);
       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][k]];    sprintf(ascdiff,"%d day(s) %d hour(s) %d minute(s) %d second(s)",days, hours, minutes, sec_left);  
     }    return ascdiff;
       /*printf("hxi cptcov=%d cptcode=%d\n",cptcov,cptcode);*/  }
       /*printf("h=%d d=%d age=%f cov=%f\n",h,d,age,cov[2]);*/  
       out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,  /*************** powell ************************/
                    pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));  void powell(double p[], double **xi, int n, double ftol, int *iter, double *fret, 
       savm=oldm;              double (*func)(double [])) 
       oldm=newm;  { 
     }    void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret, 
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)                double (*func)(double [])); 
       for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {    int i,ibig,j; 
         po[i][j][h]=newm[i][j];    double del,t,*pt,*ptt,*xit;
         /*printf("i=%d j=%d h=%d po[i][j][h]=%f ",i,j,h,po[i][j][h]);    double fp,fptt;
          */    double *xits;
       }    int niterf, itmp;
   } /* end h */  
   return po;    pt=vector(1,n); 
 }    ptt=vector(1,n); 
     xit=vector(1,n); 
     xits=vector(1,n); 
 /*************** log-likelihood *************/    *fret=(*func)(p); 
 double func( double *x)    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) pt[j]=p[j]; 
 {    for (*iter=1;;++(*iter)) { 
   int i, ii, j, k, mi, d;      fp=(*fret); 
   double l, ll[NLSTATEMAX], cov[NCOVMAX];      ibig=0; 
   double **out;      del=0.0; 
   double sw; /* Sum of weights */      last_time=curr_time;
   double lli; /* Individual log likelihood */      (void) gettimeofday(&curr_time,&tzp);
   long ipmx;      printf("\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f %ld sec. %ld sec.",*iter,*fret, curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec, curr_time.tv_sec-start_time.tv_sec);fflush(stdout);
   /*extern weight */      fprintf(ficlog,"\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f %ld sec. %ld sec.",*iter,*fret, curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec, curr_time.tv_sec-start_time.tv_sec);
   /* We are differentiating ll according to initial status */      fprintf(ficrespow,"%d %.12f %ld",*iter,*fret,curr_time.tv_sec-start_time.tv_sec);
   /*  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) printf("%f ", x[i]);*/      for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {
   /*for(i=1;i<imx;i++)        printf(" %d %.12f",i, p[i]);
 printf(" %d\n",s[4][i]);        fprintf(ficlog," %d %.12lf",i, p[i]);
   */        fprintf(ficrespow," %.12lf", p[i]);
       }
   for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) ll[k]=0.;      printf("\n");
   for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){      fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
        for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){      fprintf(ficrespow,"\n");fflush(ficrespow);
       for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)      if(*iter <=3){
         for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);        tm = *localtime(&curr_time.tv_sec);
             for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){        strcpy(strcurr,asctime(&tmf));
         newm=savm;  /*       asctime_r(&tm,strcurr); */
           cov[1]=1.;        forecast_time=curr_time;
           cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;        itmp = strlen(strcurr);
           if (cptcovn>0){        if(strcurr[itmp-1]=='\n')
             for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[1+k-1][i];          strcurr[itmp-1]='\0';
             }        printf("\nConsidering the time needed for this last iteration #%d: %ld seconds,\n",*iter,curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec);
           out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,        fprintf(ficlog,"\nConsidering the time needed for this last iteration #%d: %ld seconds,\n",*iter,curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec);
                        1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));        for(niterf=10;niterf<=30;niterf+=10){
           savm=oldm;          forecast_time.tv_sec=curr_time.tv_sec+(niterf-*iter)*(curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec);
           oldm=newm;          tmf = *localtime(&forecast_time.tv_sec);
   /*      asctime_r(&tmf,strfor); */
           strcpy(strfor,asctime(&tmf));
       } /* end mult */          itmp = strlen(strfor);
              if(strfor[itmp-1]=='\n')
       lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]);          strfor[itmp-1]='\0';
       /* printf(" %f ",out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]);*/          printf("   - if your program needs %d iterations to converge, convergence will be \n   reached in %s or\n   on %s (current time is %s);\n",niterf, asc_diff_time(forecast_time.tv_sec-curr_time.tv_sec,tmpout),strfor,strcurr);
       ipmx +=1;          fprintf(ficlog,"   - if your program needs %d iterations to converge, convergence will be \n   reached in %s or\n   on %s (current time is %s);\n",niterf, asc_diff_time(forecast_time.tv_sec-curr_time.tv_sec,tmpout),strfor,strcurr);
       sw += weight[i];        }
       ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;      }
     } /* end of wave */      for (i=1;i<=n;i++) { 
   } /* end of individual */        for (j=1;j<=n;j++) xit[j]=xi[j][i]; 
         fptt=(*fret); 
   for(k=1,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++) l += ll[k];  #ifdef DEBUG
   /* printf("l1=%f l2=%f ",ll[1],ll[2]); */        printf("fret=%lf \n",*fret);
   l= l*ipmx/sw; /* To get the same order of magnitude as if weight=1 for every body */        fprintf(ficlog,"fret=%lf \n",*fret);
   return -l;  #endif
 }        printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);
         fprintf(ficlog,"%d",i);fflush(ficlog);
         linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func); 
 /*********** Maximum Likelihood Estimation ***************/        if (fabs(fptt-(*fret)) > del) { 
           del=fabs(fptt-(*fret)); 
 void mlikeli(FILE *ficres,double p[], int npar, int ncovmodel, int nlstate, double ftol, double (*func)(double []))          ibig=i; 
 {        } 
   int i,j, iter;  #ifdef DEBUG
   double **xi,*delti;        printf("%d %.12e",i,(*fret));
   double fret;        fprintf(ficlog,"%d %.12e",i,(*fret));
   xi=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);        for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)          xits[j]=FMAX(fabs(p[j]-pt[j]),1.e-5);
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)          printf(" x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);
       xi[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);          fprintf(ficlog," x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);
   printf("Powell\n");        }
   powell(p,xi,npar,ftol,&iter,&fret,func);        for(j=1;j<=n;j++) {
           printf(" p=%.12e",p[j]);
    printf("\n#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter,func(p));          fprintf(ficlog," p=%.12e",p[j]);
   fprintf(ficres,"#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f ",iter,func(p));        }
         printf("\n");
 }        fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
   #endif
 /**** Computes Hessian and covariance matrix ***/      } 
 void hesscov(double **matcov, double p[], int npar, double delti[], double ftolhess, double (*func)(double []))      if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret))) {
 {  #ifdef DEBUG
   double  **a,**y,*x,pd;        int k[2],l;
   double **hess;        k[0]=1;
   int i, j,jk;        k[1]=-1;
   int *indx;        printf("Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));
         fprintf(ficlog,"Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));
   double hessii(double p[], double delta, int theta, double delti[]);        for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
   double hessij(double p[], double delti[], int i, int j);          printf(" %.12e",p[j]);
   void lubksb(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double b[]) ;          fprintf(ficlog," %.12e",p[j]);
   void ludcmp(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double *d) ;        }
         printf("\n");
         fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
   hess=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);        for(l=0;l<=1;l++) {
           for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
   printf("\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");            ptt[j]=p[j]+(p[j]-pt[j])*k[l];
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){            printf("l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);
     printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);            fprintf(ficlog,"l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);
     hess[i][i]=hessii(p,ftolhess,i,delti);          }
     /*printf(" %f ",p[i]);*/          printf("func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));
   }          fprintf(ficlog,"func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));
         }
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {  #endif
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)  {  
       if (j>i) {  
         printf(".%d%d",i,j);fflush(stdout);        free_vector(xit,1,n); 
         hess[i][j]=hessij(p,delti,i,j);        free_vector(xits,1,n); 
         hess[j][i]=hess[i][j];        free_vector(ptt,1,n); 
       }        free_vector(pt,1,n); 
     }        return; 
   }      } 
   printf("\n");      if (*iter == ITMAX) nrerror("powell exceeding maximum iterations."); 
       for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
   printf("\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");        ptt[j]=2.0*p[j]-pt[j]; 
          xit[j]=p[j]-pt[j]; 
   a=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);        pt[j]=p[j]; 
   y=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);      } 
   x=vector(1,npar);      fptt=(*func)(ptt); 
   indx=ivector(1,npar);      if (fptt < fp) { 
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)        t=2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del)-del*SQR(fp-fptt); 
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=hess[i][j];        if (t < 0.0) { 
   ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);          linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func); 
           for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
   for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {            xi[j][ibig]=xi[j][n]; 
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;            xi[j][n]=xit[j]; 
     x[j]=1;          }
     lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);  #ifdef DEBUG
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){          printf("Direction changed  last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);
       matcov[i][j]=x[i];          fprintf(ficlog,"Direction changed  last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);
     }          for(j=1;j<=n;j++){
   }            printf(" %.12e",xit[j]);
             fprintf(ficlog," %.12e",xit[j]);
   printf("\n#Hessian matrix#\n");          }
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {          printf("\n");
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {          fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
       printf("%.3e ",hess[i][j]);  #endif
     }        }
     printf("\n");      } 
   }    } 
   } 
   /* Recompute Inverse */  
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)  /**** Prevalence limit (stable prevalence)  ****************/
     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=matcov[i][j];  
   ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double x[], double age, double **oldm, double **savm, double ftolpl, int ij)
   {
   /*  printf("\n#Hessian matrix recomputed#\n");    /* Computes the prevalence limit in each live state at age x by left multiplying the unit
        matrix by transitions matrix until convergence is reached */
   for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {  
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;    int i, ii,j,k;
     x[j]=1;    double min, max, maxmin, maxmax,sumnew=0.;
     lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);    double **matprod2();
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){    double **out, cov[NCOVMAX], **pmij();
       y[i][j]=x[i];    double **newm;
       printf("%.3e ",y[i][j]);    double agefin, delaymax=50 ; /* Max number of years to converge */
     }  
     printf("\n");    for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
   }      for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
   */        oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
       }
   free_matrix(a,1,npar,1,npar);  
   free_matrix(y,1,npar,1,npar);     cov[1]=1.;
   free_vector(x,1,npar);   
   free_ivector(indx,1,npar);   /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */
   free_matrix(hess,1,npar,1,npar);    for(agefin=age-stepm/YEARM; agefin>=age-delaymax; agefin=agefin-stepm/YEARM){
       newm=savm;
       /* Covariates have to be included here again */
 }       cov[2]=agefin;
     
 /*************** hessian matrix ****************/        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {
 double hessii( double x[], double delta, int theta, double delti[])          cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];
 {          /*      printf("ij=%d k=%d Tvar[k]=%d nbcode=%d cov=%lf codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]=%d \n",ij,k, Tvar[k],nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]],cov[2+k], codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]);*/
   int i;        }
   int l=1, lmax=20;        for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];
   double k1,k2;        for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)
   double p2[NPARMAX+1];          cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];
   double res;  
   double delt, delts, nkhi=10.,nkhif=1., khi=1.e-4;        /*printf("ij=%d cptcovprod=%d tvar=%d ", ij, cptcovprod, Tvar[1]);*/
   double fx;        /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf cov[4]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3],cov[4]);*/
   int k=0,kmax=10;        /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3]);*/
   double l1;      out=matprod2(newm, pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate),1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm);
   
   fx=func(x);      savm=oldm;
   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];      oldm=newm;
   for(l=0 ; l <=lmax; l++){      maxmax=0.;
     l1=pow(10,l);      for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++){
     delts=delt;        min=1.;
     for(k=1 ; k <kmax; k=k+1){        max=0.;
       delt = delta*(l1*k);        for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++) {
       p2[theta]=x[theta] +delt;          sumnew=0;
       k1=func(p2)-fx;          for(k=1; k<=ndeath; k++) sumnew+=newm[i][nlstate+k];
       p2[theta]=x[theta]-delt;          prlim[i][j]= newm[i][j]/(1-sumnew);
       k2=func(p2)-fx;          max=FMAX(max,prlim[i][j]);
       /*res= (k1-2.0*fx+k2)/delt/delt; */          min=FMIN(min,prlim[i][j]);
       res= (k1+k2)/delt/delt/2.; /* Divided by because L and not 2*L */        }
              maxmin=max-min;
 #ifdef DEBUG        maxmax=FMAX(maxmax,maxmin);
       printf("%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);      }
 #endif      if(maxmax < ftolpl){
       /*if(fabs(k1-2.0*fx+k2) <1.e-13){ */        return prlim;
       if((k1 <khi/nkhi/2.) || (k2 <khi/nkhi/2.)){      }
         k=kmax;    }
       }  }
       else if((k1 >khi/nkhif) || (k2 >khi/nkhif)){ /* Keeps lastvalue before 3.84/2 KHI2 5% 1d.f. */  
         k=kmax; l=lmax*10.;  /*************** transition probabilities ***************/ 
       }  
       else if((k1 >khi/nkhi) || (k2 >khi/nkhi)){  double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate )
         delts=delt;  {
       }    double s1, s2;
     }    /*double t34;*/
   }    int i,j,j1, nc, ii, jj;
   delti[theta]=delts;  
   return res;      for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
        for(j=1; j<i;j++){
 }        for (nc=1, s2=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
           /*s2 += param[i][j][nc]*cov[nc];*/
 double hessij( double x[], double delti[], int thetai,int thetaj)          s2 += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-1)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
 {          /*printf("Int j<i s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e\n",s1,s2);*/
   int i;        }
   int l=1, l1, lmax=20;        ps[i][j]=s2;
   double k1,k2,k3,k4,res,fx;        /*printf("s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e\n",s1,s2);*/
   double p2[NPARMAX+1];      }
   int k;      for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
         for (nc=1, s2=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
   fx=func(x);          s2 += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-2)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
   for (k=1; k<=2; k++) {          /*printf("Int j>i s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e %lx %lx\n",s1,s2,s1,s2);*/
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];        }
     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;        ps[i][j]=s2;
     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;      }
     k1=func(p2)-fx;    }
        /*ps[3][2]=1;*/
     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;  
     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;    for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
     k2=func(p2)-fx;       s1=0;
        for(j=1; j<i; j++)
     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;        s1+=exp(ps[i][j]);
     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;      for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)
     k3=func(p2)-fx;        s1+=exp(ps[i][j]);
        ps[i][i]=1./(s1+1.);
     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;      for(j=1; j<i; j++)
     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;        ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
     k4=func(p2)-fx;      for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)
     res=(k1-k2-k3+k4)/4.0/delti[thetai]*k/delti[thetaj]*k/2.; /* Because of L not 2*L */        ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
 #ifdef DEBUG      /* ps[i][nlstate+1]=1.-s1- ps[i][i];*/ /* Sum should be 1 */
     printf("%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);    } /* end i */
 #endif  
   }    for(ii=nlstate+1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){
   return res;      for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
 }        ps[ii][jj]=0;
         ps[ii][ii]=1;
 /************** Inverse of matrix **************/      }
 void ludcmp(double **a, int n, int *indx, double *d)    }
 {  
   int i,imax,j,k;  
   double big,dum,sum,temp;    /*   for(ii=1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){
   double *vv;      for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
         printf("%lf ",ps[ii][jj]);
   vv=vector(1,n);     }
   *d=1.0;      printf("\n ");
   for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {      }
     big=0.0;      printf("\n ");printf("%lf ",cov[2]);*/
     for (j=1;j<=n;j++)  /*
       if ((temp=fabs(a[i][j])) > big) big=temp;    for(i=1; i<= npar; i++) printf("%f ",x[i]);
     if (big == 0.0) nrerror("Singular matrix in routine ludcmp");    goto end;*/
     vv[i]=1.0/big;      return ps;
   }  }
   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {  
     for (i=1;i<j;i++) {  /**************** Product of 2 matrices ******************/
       sum=a[i][j];  
       for (k=1;k<i;k++) sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j];  double **matprod2(double **out, double **in,long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long ncolol, long ncoloh, double **b)
       a[i][j]=sum;  {
     }    /* Computes the matrix product of in(1,nrh-nrl+1)(1,nch-ncl+1) times
     big=0.0;       b(1,nch-ncl+1)(1,ncoloh-ncolol+1) into out(...) */
     for (i=j;i<=n;i++) {    /* in, b, out are matrice of pointers which should have been initialized 
       sum=a[i][j];       before: only the contents of out is modified. The function returns
       for (k=1;k<j;k++)       a pointer to pointers identical to out */
         sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j];    long i, j, k;
       a[i][j]=sum;    for(i=nrl; i<= nrh; i++)
       if ( (dum=vv[i]*fabs(sum)) >= big) {      for(k=ncolol; k<=ncoloh; k++)
         big=dum;        for(j=ncl,out[i][k]=0.; j<=nch; j++)
         imax=i;          out[i][k] +=in[i][j]*b[j][k];
       }  
     }    return out;
     if (j != imax) {  }
       for (k=1;k<=n;k++) {  
         dum=a[imax][k];  
         a[imax][k]=a[j][k];  /************* Higher Matrix Product ***************/
         a[j][k]=dum;  
       }  double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstepm, double age, int hstepm, double *x, int nlstate, int stepm, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij )
       *d = -(*d);  {
       vv[imax]=vv[j];    /* Computes the transition matrix starting at age 'age' over 
     }       'nhstepm*hstepm*stepm' months (i.e. until
     indx[j]=imax;       age (in years)  age+nhstepm*hstepm*stepm/12) by multiplying 
     if (a[j][j] == 0.0) a[j][j]=TINY;       nhstepm*hstepm matrices. 
     if (j != n) {       Output is stored in matrix po[i][j][h] for h every 'hstepm' step 
       dum=1.0/(a[j][j]);       (typically every 2 years instead of every month which is too big 
       for (i=j+1;i<=n;i++) a[i][j] *= dum;       for the memory).
     }       Model is determined by parameters x and covariates have to be 
   }       included manually here. 
   free_vector(vv,1,n);  /* Doesn't work */  
 ;       */
 }  
     int i, j, d, h, k;
 void lubksb(double **a, int n, int *indx, double b[])    double **out, cov[NCOVMAX];
 {    double **newm;
   int i,ii=0,ip,j;  
   double sum;    /* Hstepm could be zero and should return the unit matrix */
      for (i=1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)
   for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {      for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
     ip=indx[i];        oldm[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
     sum=b[ip];        po[i][j][0]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
     b[ip]=b[i];      }
     if (ii)    /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */
       for (j=ii;j<=i-1;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j];    for(h=1; h <=nhstepm; h++){
     else if (sum) ii=i;      for(d=1; d <=hstepm; d++){
     b[i]=sum;        newm=savm;
   }        /* Covariates have to be included here again */
   for (i=n;i>=1;i--) {        cov[1]=1.;
     sum=b[i];        cov[2]=age+((h-1)*hstepm + (d-1))*stepm/YEARM;
     for (j=i+1;j<=n;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j];        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];
     b[i]=sum/a[i][i];        for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++)
   }          cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];
 }        for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)
           cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];
 /************ Frequencies ********************/  
 void  freqsummary(char fileres[], int agemin, int agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax)  
 {  /* Some frequencies */        /*printf("hxi cptcov=%d cptcode=%d\n",cptcov,cptcode);*/
          /*printf("h=%d d=%d age=%f cov=%f\n",h,d,age,cov[2]);*/
   int i, m, jk, k1, i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;        out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, 
   double ***freq; /* Frequencies */                     pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
   double *pp;        savm=oldm;
   double pos;        oldm=newm;
   FILE *ficresp;      }
   char fileresp[FILENAMELENGTH];      for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)
         for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
   pp=vector(1,nlstate);          po[i][j][h]=newm[i][j];
           /*printf("i=%d j=%d h=%d po[i][j][h]=%f ",i,j,h,po[i][j][h]);
   strcpy(fileresp,"p");           */
   strcat(fileresp,fileres);        }
   if((ficresp=fopen(fileresp,"w"))==NULL) {    } /* end h */
     printf("Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);    return po;
     exit(0);  }
   }  
   freq= ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,agemin,agemax+3);  
   j1=0;  /*************** log-likelihood *************/
   double func( double *x)
   j=cptcovn;  {
   if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}    int i, ii, j, k, mi, d, kk;
     double l, ll[NLSTATEMAX], cov[NCOVMAX];
   for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){    double **out;
    for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){    double sw; /* Sum of weights */
        j1++;    double lli; /* Individual log likelihood */
     int s1, s2;
         for (i=-1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)      double bbh, survp;
          for (jk=-1; jk<=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)      long ipmx;
            for(m=agemin; m <= agemax+3; m++)    /*extern weight */
              freq[i][jk][m]=0;    /* We are differentiating ll according to initial status */
            /*  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) printf("%f ", x[i]);*/
        for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {    /*for(i=1;i<imx;i++) 
          bool=1;      printf(" %d\n",s[4][i]);
          if  (cptcovn>0) {    */
            for (z1=1; z1<=cptcovn; z1++)    cov[1]=1.;
              if (covar[Tvar[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvar[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]) bool=0;  
          }    for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) ll[k]=0.;
           if (bool==1) {  
            for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass-1; m++){    if(mle==1){
              if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=agemax+1;      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
              if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=agemax+2;        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
              freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];        for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
              freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int) agemax+3] += weight[i];          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
            }            for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
          }              oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
        }              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
         if  (cptcovn>0) {            }
          fprintf(ficresp, "\n#Variable");          for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcovn; z1++) fprintf(ficresp, " V%d=%d",Tvar[z1],nbcode[Tvar[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);            newm=savm;
        }            cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
        fprintf(ficresp, "\n#");            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
        for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)              cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
          fprintf(ficresp, " Age Prev(%d) N(%d) N",i,i);            }
        fprintf(ficresp, "\n");            out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
                                 1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
   for(i=(int)agemin; i <= (int)agemax+3; i++){            savm=oldm;
     if(i==(int)agemax+3)            oldm=newm;
       printf("Total");          } /* end mult */
     else        
       printf("Age %d", i);          /*lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]);*/ /* Original formula */
     for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){          /* But now since version 0.9 we anticipate for bias and large stepm.
       for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)           * If stepm is larger than one month (smallest stepm) and if the exact delay 
         pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];           * (in months) between two waves is not a multiple of stepm, we rounded to 
     }           * the nearest (and in case of equal distance, to the lowest) interval but now
     for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){           * we keep into memory the bias bh[mi][i] and also the previous matrix product
       for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)           * (i.e to dh[mi][i]-1) saved in 'savm'. The we inter(extra)polate the
         pos += freq[jk][m][i];           * probability in order to take into account the bias as a fraction of the way
       if(pp[jk]>=1.e-10)           * from savm to out if bh is neagtive or even beyond if bh is positive. bh varies
         printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);           * -stepm/2 to stepm/2 .
       else           * For stepm=1 the results are the same as for previous versions of Imach.
         printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);           * For stepm > 1 the results are less biased than in previous versions. 
     }           */
     for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
       for(m=1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
         pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];          bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm; 
     }          /* bias is positive if real duration
     for(jk=1,pos=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++)           * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
       pos += pp[jk];           */
     for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){          /* lli= (savm[s1][s2]>1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]));*/
       if(pos>=1.e-5)          if( s2 > nlstate){ 
         printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);            /* i.e. if s2 is a death state and if the date of death is known then the contribution
       else               to the likelihood is the probability to die between last step unit time and current 
         printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);               step unit time, which is also the differences between probability to die before dh 
       if( i <= (int) agemax){               and probability to die before dh-stepm . 
         if(pos>=1.e-5)               In version up to 0.92 likelihood was computed
           fprintf(ficresp," %d %.5f %.0f %.0f",i,pp[jk]/pos, pp[jk],pos);          as if date of death was unknown. Death was treated as any other
       else          health state: the date of the interview describes the actual state
           fprintf(ficresp," %d NaNq %.0f %.0f",i,pp[jk],pos);          and not the date of a change in health state. The former idea was
       }          to consider that at each interview the state was recorded
     }          (healthy, disable or death) and IMaCh was corrected; but when we
     for(jk=-1; jk <=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)          introduced the exact date of death then we should have modified
       for(m=-1; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)          the contribution of an exact death to the likelihood. This new
         if(freq[jk][m][i] !=0 ) printf(" %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);          contribution is smaller and very dependent of the step unit
     if(i <= (int) agemax)          stepm. It is no more the probability to die between last interview
       fprintf(ficresp,"\n");          and month of death but the probability to survive from last
     printf("\n");          interview up to one month before death multiplied by the
     }          probability to die within a month. Thanks to Chris
     }          Jackson for correcting this bug.  Former versions increased
  }          mortality artificially. The bad side is that we add another loop
            which slows down the processing. The difference can be up to 10%
   fclose(ficresp);          lower mortality.
   free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) agemin,(int) agemax+3);            */
   free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);            lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
           }else{
 }  /* End of Freq */            lli= log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]); /* linear interpolation */
             /*  lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*(savm[s1][s2])):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]));*/ /* linear interpolation */
 /************* Waves Concatenation ***************/          } 
           /*lli=(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]);*/
 void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int **mw, int **s, double *agedc, double **agev, int  firstpass, int lastpass, int imx, int nlstate, int stepm)          /*if(lli ==000.0)*/
 {          /*printf("bbh= %f lli=%f savm=%f out=%f %d\n",bbh,lli,savm[s1][s2], out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]],i); */
   /* Concatenates waves: wav[i] is the number of effective (useful waves) of individual i.          ipmx +=1;
      Death is a valid wave (if date is known).          sw += weight[i];
      mw[mi][i] is the mi (mi=1 to wav[i])  effective wave of individual i          ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
      dh[m][i] of dh[mw[mi][i][i] is the delay between two effective waves m=mw[mi][i]        } /* end of wave */
      and mw[mi+1][i]. dh depends on stepm.      } /* end of individual */
      */    }  else if(mle==2){
       for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
   int i, mi, m;        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
   int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl,jmin=1e+5, jmax=-1;        for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
 float sum=0.;          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
             for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
   for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){              oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
     mi=0;              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
     m=firstpass;            }
     while(s[m][i] <= nlstate){          for(d=0; d<=dh[mi][i]; d++){
       if(s[m][i]>=1)            newm=savm;
         mw[++mi][i]=m;            cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
       if(m >=lastpass)            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
         break;              cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
       else            }
         m++;            out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
     }/* end while */                         1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
     if (s[m][i] > nlstate){            savm=oldm;
       mi++;     /* Death is another wave */            oldm=newm;
       /* if(mi==0)  never been interviewed correctly before death */          } /* end mult */
          /* Only death is a correct wave */        
       mw[mi][i]=m;          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
     }          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
           bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm; 
     wav[i]=mi;          lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*(savm[s1][s2])):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* linear interpolation */
     if(mi==0)          ipmx +=1;
       printf("Warning, no any valid information for:%d line=%d\n",num[i],i);          sw += weight[i];
   }          ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
         } /* end of wave */
   for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){      } /* end of individual */
     for(mi=1; mi<wav[i];mi++){    }  else if(mle==3){  /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
       if (stepm <=0)      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
         dh[mi][i]=1;        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
       else{        for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
         if (s[mw[mi+1][i]][i] > nlstate) {          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
           j= rint(agedc[i]*12-agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12);            for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
           if(j=0) j=1;  /* Survives at least one month after exam */              oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
         }              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
         else{            }
           j= rint( (agev[mw[mi+1][i]][i]*12 - agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12));          for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
           k=k+1;            newm=savm;
           if (j >= jmax) jmax=j;            cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
           else if (j <= jmin)jmin=j;            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
           sum=sum+j;              cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
         }            }
         jk= j/stepm;            out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
         jl= j -jk*stepm;                         1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
         ju= j -(jk+1)*stepm;            savm=oldm;
         if(jl <= -ju)            oldm=newm;
           dh[mi][i]=jk;          } /* end mult */
         else        
           dh[mi][i]=jk+1;          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
         if(dh[mi][i]==0)          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
           dh[mi][i]=1; /* At least one step */          bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm; 
       }          lli= (savm[s1][s2]>1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
     }          ipmx +=1;
   }          sw += weight[i];
   printf("Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%f\n\n ",jmin, jmax,sum/k);          ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
 }        } /* end of wave */
 /*********** Tricode ****************************/      } /* end of individual */
 void tricode(int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int imx)    }else if (mle==4){  /* ml=4 no inter-extrapolation */
 {      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
   int Ndum[80],ij, k, j, i;        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
   int cptcode=0;        for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
   for (k=0; k<79; k++) Ndum[k]=0;          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
   for (k=1; k<=7; k++) ncodemax[k]=0;            for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
                oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
   for (j=1; j<=cptcovn; j++) {              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {            }
       ij=(int)(covar[Tvar[j]][i]);          for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
       Ndum[ij]++;            newm=savm;
       if (ij > cptcode) cptcode=ij;            cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
     }            for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
     /*printf("cptcode=%d cptcovn=%d ",cptcode,cptcovn);*/              cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
     for (i=0; i<=cptcode; i++) {            }
       if(Ndum[i]!=0) ncodemax[j]++;          
     }            out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
                           1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
     ij=1;            savm=oldm;
     for (i=1; i<=ncodemax[j]; i++) {            oldm=newm;
       for (k=0; k<=79; k++) {          } /* end mult */
         if (Ndum[k] != 0) {        
           nbcode[Tvar[j]][ij]=k;          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
           ij++;          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
         }          if( s2 > nlstate){ 
         if (ij > ncodemax[j]) break;            lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
       }            }else{
     }            lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]); /* Original formula */
   }            }
           ipmx +=1;
   }          sw += weight[i];
           ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
 /*********** Health Expectancies ****************/  /*      printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
         } /* end of wave */
 void evsij(char fileres[], double ***eij, double x[], int nlstate, int stepm, int bage, int fage, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij)      } /* end of individual */
 {    }else{  /* ml=5 no inter-extrapolation no jackson =0.8a */
   /* Health expectancies */      for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h;        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
   double age, agelim,hf;        for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
   double ***p3mat;          for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
              for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
   fprintf(ficreseij,"# Health expectancies\n");              oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
   fprintf(ficreseij,"# Age");              savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)            }
     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)          for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
       fprintf(ficreseij," %1d-%1d",i,j);            newm=savm;
   fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");            cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
             for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
   hstepm=1*YEARM; /*  Every j years of age (in month) */              cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */            }
           
   agelim=AGESUP;            out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */                         1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
     /* nhstepm age range expressed in number of stepm */            savm=oldm;
     nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm);            oldm=newm;
     /* Typically if 20 years = 20*12/6=40 stepm */          } /* end mult */
     if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;        
     nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically 40/4=10 */          s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
     p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);          s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
     /* Computed by stepm unit matrices, product of hstepm matrices, stored          lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]); /* Original formula */
        in an array of nhstepm length: nhstepm=10, hstepm=4, stepm=6 months */          ipmx +=1;
     hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm, savm, ij);            sw += weight[i];
           ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
           /*printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]);*/
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)        } /* end of wave */
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)      } /* end of individual */
         for (h=0, eij[i][j][(int)age]=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){    } /* End of if */
           eij[i][j][(int)age] +=p3mat[i][j][h];    for(k=1,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++) l += ll[k];
         }    /* printf("l1=%f l2=%f ",ll[1],ll[2]); */
        l= l*ipmx/sw; /* To get the same order of magnitude as if weight=1 for every body */
     hf=1;    return -l;
     if (stepm >= YEARM) hf=stepm/YEARM;  }
     fprintf(ficreseij,"%.0f",age );  
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)  /*************** log-likelihood *************/
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){  double funcone( double *x)
         fprintf(ficreseij," %.4f", hf*eij[i][j][(int)age]);  {
       }    /* Same as likeli but slower because of a lot of printf and if */
     fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");    int i, ii, j, k, mi, d, kk;
     free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);    double l, ll[NLSTATEMAX], cov[NCOVMAX];
   }    double **out;
 }    double lli; /* Individual log likelihood */
     double llt;
 /************ Variance ******************/    int s1, s2;
 void varevsij(char fileres[], double ***vareij, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij)    double bbh, survp;
 {    /*extern weight */
   /* Variance of health expectancies */    /* We are differentiating ll according to initial status */
   /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double ** savm,double ftolpl);*/    /*  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) printf("%f ", x[i]);*/
   double **newm;    /*for(i=1;i<imx;i++) 
   double **dnewm,**doldm;      printf(" %d\n",s[4][i]);
   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h;    */
   int k, cptcode;    cov[1]=1.;
    double *xp;  
   double **gp, **gm;    for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) ll[k]=0.;
   double ***gradg, ***trgradg;  
   double ***p3mat;    for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
   double age,agelim;      for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
   int theta;      for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
         for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
    fprintf(ficresvij,"# Covariances of life expectancies\n");          for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
   fprintf(ficresvij,"# Age");            oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)            savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)          }
       fprintf(ficresvij," Cov(e%1d, e%1d)",i,j);        for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
   fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");          newm=savm;
           cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
   xp=vector(1,npar);          for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
   dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);            cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
   doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);          }
            out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
   hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every year of age */                       1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */          savm=oldm;
   agelim = AGESUP;          oldm=newm;
   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */        } /* end mult */
     nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */        
     if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;        s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
     nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */        s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
     p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);        bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm; 
     gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);        /* bias is positive if real duration
     gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);         * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
     gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);         */
         if( s2 > nlstate && (mle <5) ){  /* Jackson */
     for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){          lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */        } else if (mle==1){
         xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);          lli= log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]); /* linear interpolation */
       }        } else if(mle==2){
       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);            lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* linear interpolation */
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);        } else if(mle==3){  /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){          lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){        } else if (mle==4){  /* mle=4 no inter-extrapolation */
           for(i=1, gp[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)          lli=log(out[s1][s2]); /* Original formula */
             gp[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];        } else{  /* ml>=5 no inter-extrapolation no jackson =0.8a */
         }          lli=log(out[s1][s2]); /* Original formula */
       }        } /* End of if */
            ipmx +=1;
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */        sw += weight[i];
         xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);        ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);    /*       printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);        if(globpr){
       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){          fprintf(ficresilk,"%9d %6d %1d %1d %1d %1d %3d %10.6f %6.4f\
         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){   %10.6f %10.6f %10.6f ", \
           for(i=1, gm[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)                  num[i],i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],
             gm[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];                  2*weight[i]*lli,out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]);
         }          for(k=1,llt=0.,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++){
       }            llt +=ll[k]*gipmx/gsw;
       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++)            fprintf(ficresilk," %10.6f",-ll[k]*gipmx/gsw);
         for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){          }
           gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];          fprintf(ficresilk," %10.6f\n", -llt);
         }        }
     } /* End theta */      } /* end of wave */
     } /* end of individual */
     trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);    for(k=1,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++) l += ll[k];
     /* printf("l1=%f l2=%f ",ll[1],ll[2]); */
     for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++)    l= l*ipmx/sw; /* To get the same order of magnitude as if weight=1 for every body */
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)    if(globpr==0){ /* First time we count the contributions and weights */
         for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)      gipmx=ipmx;
           trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];      gsw=sw;
     }
     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)    return -l;
       for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)  }
         vareij[i][j][(int)age] =0.;  
     for(h=0;h<=nhstepm;h++){  
       for(k=0;k<=nhstepm;k++){  /*************** function likelione ***********/
         matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);  void likelione(FILE *ficres,double p[], int npar, int nlstate, int *globpri, long *ipmx, double *sw, double *fretone, double (*funcone)(double []))
         matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg[k]);  {
         for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)    /* This routine should help understanding what is done with 
           for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)       the selection of individuals/waves and
             vareij[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j];       to check the exact contribution to the likelihood.
       }       Plotting could be done.
     }     */
     h=1;    int k;
     if (stepm >= YEARM) h=stepm/YEARM;  
     fprintf(ficresvij,"%.0f ",age );    if(*globpri !=0){ /* Just counts and sums, no printings */
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)      strcpy(fileresilk,"ilk"); 
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){      strcat(fileresilk,fileres);
         fprintf(ficresvij," %.4f", h*vareij[i][j][(int)age]);      if((ficresilk=fopen(fileresilk,"w"))==NULL) {
       }        printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresilk);
     fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");        fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresilk);
     free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);      }
     free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);      fprintf(ficresilk, "#individual(line's_record) s1 s2 wave# effective_wave# number_of_matrices_product pij weight -2ln(pij)*weight 0pij_x 0pij_(x-stepm) cumulating_loglikeli_by_health_state(reweighted=-2ll*weightXnumber_of_contribs/sum_of_weights) and_total\n");
     free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);      fprintf(ficresilk, "#num_i i s1 s2 mi mw dh likeli weight 2wlli out sav ");
     free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);      /*  i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],2*weight[i]*lli,out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
     free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);      for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) 
   } /* End age */        fprintf(ficresilk," -2*gipw/gsw*weight*ll[%d]++",k);
        fprintf(ficresilk," -2*gipw/gsw*weight*ll(total)\n");
   free_vector(xp,1,npar);    }
   free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);  
   free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);    *fretone=(*funcone)(p);
     if(*globpri !=0){
 }      fclose(ficresilk);
       fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>File of contributions to the likelihood: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n",subdirf(fileresilk),subdirf(fileresilk));
 /************ Variance of prevlim ******************/      fflush(fichtm); 
 void varprevlim(char fileres[], double **varpl, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij)    } 
 {    return;
   /* Variance of prevalence limit */  }
   /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double ** savm,double ftolpl);*/  
   double **newm;  
   double **dnewm,**doldm;  /*********** Maximum Likelihood Estimation ***************/
   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm;  
   int k, cptcode;  void mlikeli(FILE *ficres,double p[], int npar, int ncovmodel, int nlstate, double ftol, double (*func)(double []))
   double *xp;  {
   double *gp, *gm;    int i,j, iter;
   double **gradg, **trgradg;    double **xi;
   double age,agelim;    double fret;
   int theta;    double fretone; /* Only one call to likelihood */
        char filerespow[FILENAMELENGTH];
   fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Standard deviation of prevalences limit\n");    xi=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
   fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Age");    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)
       fprintf(ficresvpl," %1d-%1d",i,i);        xi[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
   fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");    printf("Powell\n");  fprintf(ficlog,"Powell\n");
     strcpy(filerespow,"pow"); 
   xp=vector(1,npar);    strcat(filerespow,fileres);
   dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);    if((ficrespow=fopen(filerespow,"w"))==NULL) {
   doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
        fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
   hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every year of age */    }
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */    fprintf(ficrespow,"# Powell\n# iter -2*LL");
   agelim = AGESUP;    for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */      for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
     nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */        if(j!=i)fprintf(ficrespow," p%1d%1d",i,j);
     if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;    fprintf(ficrespow,"\n");
     nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */  
     gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);    powell(p,xi,npar,ftol,&iter,&fret,func);
     gp=vector(1,nlstate);  
     gm=vector(1,nlstate);    fclose(ficrespow);
     printf("\n#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter,func(p));
     for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){    fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f \n",iter,func(p));
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */    fprintf(ficres,"#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f \n",iter,func(p));
         xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);  
       }  }
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);  
       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)  /**** Computes Hessian and covariance matrix ***/
         gp[i] = prlim[i][i];  void hesscov(double **matcov, double p[], int npar, double delti[], double ftolhess, double (*func)(double []))
      {
       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */    double  **a,**y,*x,pd;
         xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);    double **hess;
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);    int i, j,jk;
       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)    int *indx;
         gm[i] = prlim[i][i];  
     double hessii(double p[], double delta, int theta, double delti[]);
       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)    double hessij(double p[], double delti[], int i, int j);
         gradg[theta][i]= (gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];    void lubksb(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double b[]) ;
     } /* End theta */    void ludcmp(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double *d) ;
   
     trgradg =matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);    hess=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
   
     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)    printf("\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");
       for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)    fprintf(ficlog,"\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");
         trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){
       printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);
     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)      fprintf(ficlog,"%d",i);fflush(ficlog);
       varpl[i][(int)age] =0.;      hess[i][i]=hessii(p,ftolhess,i,delti);
     matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);      /*printf(" %f ",p[i]);*/
     matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);      /*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][i]);*/
     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)    }
       varpl[i][(int)age] = doldm[i][i]; /* Covariances are useless */    
     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {
     fprintf(ficresvpl,"%.0f ",age );      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)  {
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)        if (j>i) { 
       fprintf(ficresvpl," %.5f (%.5f)",prlim[i][i],sqrt(varpl[i][(int)age]));          printf(".%d%d",i,j);fflush(stdout);
     fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");          fprintf(ficlog,".%d%d",i,j);fflush(ficlog);
     free_vector(gp,1,nlstate);          hess[i][j]=hessij(p,delti,i,j);
     free_vector(gm,1,nlstate);          hess[j][i]=hess[i][j];    
     free_matrix(gradg,1,npar,1,nlstate);          /*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][j]);*/
     free_matrix(trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar);        }
   } /* End age */      }
     }
   free_vector(xp,1,npar);    printf("\n");
   free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);    fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
   free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);  
     printf("\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");
 }    fprintf(ficlog,"\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");
     
     a=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
     y=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
 /***********************************************/    x=vector(1,npar);
 /**************** Main Program *****************/    indx=ivector(1,npar);
 /***********************************************/    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
       for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=hess[i][j];
 /*int main(int argc, char *argv[])*/    ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);
 int main()  
 {    for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
       for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;
   int i,j, k, n=MAXN,iter,m,size,cptcode, aaa, cptcod;      x[j]=1;
   double agedeb, agefin,hf;      lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);
   double agemin=1.e20, agemax=-1.e20;      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){ 
         matcov[i][j]=x[i];
   double fret;      }
   double **xi,tmp,delta;    }
   
   double dum; /* Dummy variable */    printf("\n#Hessian matrix#\n");
   double ***p3mat;    fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Hessian matrix#\n");
   int *indx;    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) { 
   char line[MAXLINE], linepar[MAXLINE];      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) { 
   char title[MAXLINE];        printf("%.3e ",hess[i][j]);
   char optionfile[FILENAMELENGTH], datafile[FILENAMELENGTH],  filerespl[FILENAMELENGTH];        fprintf(ficlog,"%.3e ",hess[i][j]);
   char fileres[FILENAMELENGTH], filerespij[FILENAMELENGTH], filereso[FILENAMELENGTH];      }
   char filerest[FILENAMELENGTH];      printf("\n");
   char fileregp[FILENAMELENGTH];      fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
   char path[80],pathc[80],pathcd[80],pathtot[80],model[20];    }
   int firstobs=1, lastobs=10;  
   int sdeb, sfin; /* Status at beginning and end */    /* Recompute Inverse */
   int c,  h , cpt,l;    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
   int ju,jl, mi;      for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=matcov[i][j];
   int i1,j1, k1,k2,k3,jk,aa,bb, stepsize;    ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);
   int jnais,jdc,jint4,jint1,jint2,jint3,**outcome,**adl,*tab;  
      /*  printf("\n#Hessian matrix recomputed#\n");
   int hstepm, nhstepm;  
   double bage, fage, age, agelim, agebase;    for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
   double ftolpl=FTOL;      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;
   double **prlim;      x[j]=1;
   double *severity;      lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);
   double ***param; /* Matrix of parameters */      for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){ 
   double  *p;        y[i][j]=x[i];
   double **matcov; /* Matrix of covariance */        printf("%.3e ",y[i][j]);
   double ***delti3; /* Scale */        fprintf(ficlog,"%.3e ",y[i][j]);
   double *delti; /* Scale */      }
   double ***eij, ***vareij;      printf("\n");
   double **varpl; /* Variances of prevalence limits by age */      fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
   double *epj, vepp;    }
   char version[80]="Imach version 62c, May 1999, INED-EUROREVES ";    */
   char *alph[]={"a","a","b","c","d","e"}, str[4];  
     free_matrix(a,1,npar,1,npar);
   char z[1]="c", occ;    free_matrix(y,1,npar,1,npar);
 #include <sys/time.h>    free_vector(x,1,npar);
 #include <time.h>    free_ivector(indx,1,npar);
   char stra[80], strb[80], strc[80], strd[80],stre[80],modelsav[80];    free_matrix(hess,1,npar,1,npar);
   /* long total_usecs;  
   struct timeval start_time, end_time;  
    }
   gettimeofday(&start_time, (struct timezone*)0); */ /* at first time */  
   /*************** hessian matrix ****************/
   double hessii( double x[], double delta, int theta, double delti[])
   printf("\nIMACH, Version 0.64a");  {
   printf("\nEnter the parameter file name: ");    int i;
     int l=1, lmax=20;
 #ifdef windows    double k1,k2;
   scanf("%s",pathtot);    double p2[NPARMAX+1];
   getcwd(pathcd, size);    double res;
   /*cygwin_split_path(pathtot,path,optionfile);    double delt, delts, nkhi=10.,nkhif=1., khi=1.e-4;
     printf("pathtot=%s, path=%s, optionfile=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile);*/    double fx;
   /* cutv(path,optionfile,pathtot,'\\');*/    int k=0,kmax=10;
     double l1;
 split(pathtot, path,optionfile);  
   chdir(path);    fx=func(x);
   replace(pathc,path);    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];
 #endif    for(l=0 ; l <=lmax; l++){
 #ifdef unix      l1=pow(10,l);
   scanf("%s",optionfile);      delts=delt;
 #endif      for(k=1 ; k <kmax; k=k+1){
         delt = delta*(l1*k);
 /*-------- arguments in the command line --------*/        p2[theta]=x[theta] +delt;
         k1=func(p2)-fx;
   strcpy(fileres,"r");        p2[theta]=x[theta]-delt;
   strcat(fileres, optionfile);        k2=func(p2)-fx;
         /*res= (k1-2.0*fx+k2)/delt/delt; */
   /*---------arguments file --------*/        res= (k1+k2)/delt/delt/2.; /* Divided by because L and not 2*L */
         
   if((ficpar=fopen(optionfile,"r"))==NULL)    {  #ifdef DEBUG
     printf("Problem with optionfile %s\n",optionfile);        printf("%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);
     goto end;        fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);
   }  #endif
         /*if(fabs(k1-2.0*fx+k2) <1.e-13){ */
   strcpy(filereso,"o");        if((k1 <khi/nkhi/2.) || (k2 <khi/nkhi/2.)){
   strcat(filereso,fileres);          k=kmax;
   if((ficparo=fopen(filereso,"w"))==NULL) {        }
     printf("Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);goto end;        else if((k1 >khi/nkhif) || (k2 >khi/nkhif)){ /* Keeps lastvalue before 3.84/2 KHI2 5% 1d.f. */
   }          k=kmax; l=lmax*10.;
         }
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */        else if((k1 >khi/nkhi) || (k2 >khi/nkhi)){ 
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){          delts=delt;
     ungetc(c,ficpar);        }
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);      }
     puts(line);    }
     fputs(line,ficparo);    delti[theta]=delts;
   }    return res; 
   ungetc(c,ficpar);    
   }
   fscanf(ficpar,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%lf stepm=%d ncov=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n",title, datafile, &lastobs, &firstpass,&lastpass,&ftol, &stepm, &ncov, &nlstate,&ndeath, &maxwav, &mle, &weightopt,model);  
   printf("title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncov=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncov, nlstate,ndeath, maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);  double hessij( double x[], double delti[], int thetai,int thetaj)
   fprintf(ficparo,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncov=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncov,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);  {
     int i;
   covar=matrix(1,NCOVMAX,1,n);        int l=1, l1, lmax=20;
   if (strlen(model)<=1) cptcovn=0;    double k1,k2,k3,k4,res,fx;
   else {    double p2[NPARMAX+1];
     j=0;    int k;
     j=nbocc(model,'+');  
     cptcovn=j+1;    fx=func(x);
   }    for (k=1; k<=2; k++) {
       for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];
   ncovmodel=2+cptcovn;      p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;
   nvar=ncovmodel-1; /* Suppressing age as a basic covariate */      p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;
        k1=func(p2)-fx;
   /* Read guess parameters */    
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */      p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){      p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;
     ungetc(c,ficpar);      k2=func(p2)-fx;
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);    
     puts(line);      p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;
     fputs(line,ficparo);      p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;
   }      k3=func(p2)-fx;
   ungetc(c,ficpar);    
        p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;
   param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);      p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;
     for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++)      k4=func(p2)-fx;
     for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath-1; j++){      res=(k1-k2-k3+k4)/4.0/delti[thetai]*k/delti[thetaj]*k/2.; /* Because of L not 2*L */
       fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);  #ifdef DEBUG
       fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);      printf("%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
       printf("%1d%1d",i,j);      fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
       for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){  #endif
         fscanf(ficpar," %lf",&param[i][j][k]);    }
         printf(" %lf",param[i][j][k]);    return res;
         fprintf(ficparo," %lf",param[i][j][k]);  }
       }  
       fscanf(ficpar,"\n");  /************** Inverse of matrix **************/
       printf("\n");  void ludcmp(double **a, int n, int *indx, double *d) 
       fprintf(ficparo,"\n");  { 
     }    int i,imax,j,k; 
      double big,dum,sum,temp; 
   npar= (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel;    double *vv; 
   p=param[1][1];   
      vv=vector(1,n); 
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */    *d=1.0; 
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){    for (i=1;i<=n;i++) { 
     ungetc(c,ficpar);      big=0.0; 
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);      for (j=1;j<=n;j++) 
     puts(line);        if ((temp=fabs(a[i][j])) > big) big=temp; 
     fputs(line,ficparo);      if (big == 0.0) nrerror("Singular matrix in routine ludcmp"); 
   }      vv[i]=1.0/big; 
   ungetc(c,ficpar);    } 
     for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
   delti3= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);      for (i=1;i<j;i++) { 
   delti=vector(1,npar); /* Scale of each paramater (output from hesscov) */        sum=a[i][j]; 
   for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){        for (k=1;k<i;k++) sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j]; 
     for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath-1; j++){        a[i][j]=sum; 
       fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);      } 
       printf("%1d%1d",i,j);      big=0.0; 
       fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);      for (i=j;i<=n;i++) { 
       for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){        sum=a[i][j]; 
         fscanf(ficpar,"%le",&delti3[i][j][k]);        for (k=1;k<j;k++) 
         printf(" %le",delti3[i][j][k]);          sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j]; 
         fprintf(ficparo," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);        a[i][j]=sum; 
       }        if ( (dum=vv[i]*fabs(sum)) >= big) { 
       fscanf(ficpar,"\n");          big=dum; 
       printf("\n");          imax=i; 
       fprintf(ficparo,"\n");        } 
     }      } 
   }      if (j != imax) { 
   delti=delti3[1][1];        for (k=1;k<=n;k++) { 
            dum=a[imax][k]; 
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */          a[imax][k]=a[j][k]; 
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){          a[j][k]=dum; 
     ungetc(c,ficpar);        } 
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);        *d = -(*d); 
     puts(line);        vv[imax]=vv[j]; 
     fputs(line,ficparo);      } 
   }      indx[j]=imax; 
   ungetc(c,ficpar);      if (a[j][j] == 0.0) a[j][j]=TINY; 
        if (j != n) { 
   matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);        dum=1.0/(a[j][j]); 
   for(i=1; i <=npar; i++){        for (i=j+1;i<=n;i++) a[i][j] *= dum; 
     fscanf(ficpar,"%s",&str);      } 
     printf("%s",str);    } 
     fprintf(ficparo,"%s",str);    free_vector(vv,1,n);  /* Doesn't work */
     for(j=1; j <=i; j++){  ;
       fscanf(ficpar," %le",&matcov[i][j]);  } 
       printf(" %.5le",matcov[i][j]);  
       fprintf(ficparo," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);  void lubksb(double **a, int n, int *indx, double b[]) 
     }  { 
     fscanf(ficpar,"\n");    int i,ii=0,ip,j; 
     printf("\n");    double sum; 
     fprintf(ficparo,"\n");   
   }    for (i=1;i<=n;i++) { 
   for(i=1; i <=npar; i++)      ip=indx[i]; 
     for(j=i+1;j<=npar;j++)      sum=b[ip]; 
       matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];      b[ip]=b[i]; 
          if (ii) 
   printf("\n");        for (j=ii;j<=i-1;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j]; 
       else if (sum) ii=i; 
       b[i]=sum; 
    if(mle==1){    } 
     /*-------- data file ----------*/    for (i=n;i>=1;i--) { 
     if((ficres =fopen(fileres,"w"))==NULL) {      sum=b[i]; 
       printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileres);goto end;      for (j=i+1;j<=n;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j]; 
     }      b[i]=sum/a[i][i]; 
     fprintf(ficres,"#%s\n",version);    } 
      } 
     if((fic=fopen(datafile,"r"))==NULL)    {  
       printf("Problem with datafile: %s\n", datafile);goto end;  /************ Frequencies ********************/
     }  void  freqsummary(char fileres[], int iagemin, int iagemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvaraff, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint)
   {  /* Some frequencies */
     n= lastobs;    
     severity = vector(1,maxwav);    int i, m, jk, k1,i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;
     outcome=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);    int first;
     num=ivector(1,n);    double ***freq; /* Frequencies */
     moisnais=vector(1,n);    double *pp, **prop;
     annais=vector(1,n);    double pos,posprop, k2, dateintsum=0,k2cpt=0;
     moisdc=vector(1,n);    FILE *ficresp;
     andc=vector(1,n);    char fileresp[FILENAMELENGTH];
     agedc=vector(1,n);    
     cod=ivector(1,n);    pp=vector(1,nlstate);
     weight=vector(1,n);    prop=matrix(1,nlstate,iagemin,iagemax+3);
     for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0; /* Equal weights, 1 by default */    strcpy(fileresp,"p");
     mint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);    strcat(fileresp,fileres);
     anint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);    if((ficresp=fopen(fileresp,"w"))==NULL) {
     s=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);      printf("Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);
     adl=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);          fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);
     tab=ivector(1,NCOVMAX);      exit(0);
     ncodemax=ivector(1,8);    }
     freq= ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,iagemin,iagemax+3);
     i=1;    j1=0;
     while (fgets(line, MAXLINE, fic) != NULL)    {    
       if ((i >= firstobs) && (i <=lastobs)) {    j=cptcoveff;
            if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
         for (j=maxwav;j>=1;j--){  
           cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); s[j][i]=atoi(strb);    first=1;
           strcpy(line,stra);  
           cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); anint[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);    for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){
           cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); mint[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);      for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
         }        j1++;
                /*printf("cptcoveff=%d Tvaraff=%d", cptcoveff,Tvaraff[1]);
         cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); andc[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);          scanf("%d", i);*/
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); moisdc[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);        for (i=-1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)  
           for (jk=-1; jk<=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)  
         cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); annais[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);            for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); moisnais[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);              freq[i][jk][m]=0;
   
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); weight[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);      for (i=1; i<=nlstate; i++)  
         for (j=ncov;j>=1;j--){        for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
           cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); covar[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);          prop[i][m]=0;
         }        
         num[i]=atol(stra);        dateintsum=0;
         k2cpt=0;
         /*printf("%d %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]), (weight[i]), (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i]));*/        for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
           bool=1;
         i=i+1;          if  (cptcovn>0) {
       }            for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) 
     }              if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]) 
                 bool=0;
     /*scanf("%d",i);*/          }
   imx=i-1; /* Number of individuals */          if (bool==1){
             for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){
   /* Calculation of the number of parameter from char model*/              k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);
   Tvar=ivector(1,8);                  /*if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {*/
                    if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=iagemax+1;
   if (strlen(model) >1){                if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=iagemax+2;
     j=0;                if (s[m][i]>0 && s[m][i]<=nlstate) prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
     j=nbocc(model,'+');                if (m<lastpass) {
     cptcovn=j+1;                  freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
                      freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][iagemax+3] += weight[i];
     strcpy(modelsav,model);                }
     if (j==0) {                
       cutv(stra,strb,modelsav,'V'); Tvar[1]=atoi(strb);                if ((agev[m][i]>1) && (agev[m][i]< (iagemax+3))) {
     }                  dateintsum=dateintsum+k2;
     else {                  k2cpt++;
       for(i=j; i>=1;i--){                }
         cutv(stra,strb,modelsav,'+');                /*}*/
         if (strchr(strb,'*')) {            }
           cutv(strd,strc,strb,'*');          }
           cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V');Tvar[i+1]=ncov+1;        }
           cutv(strb,strc,strd,'V');         
           for (k=1; k<=lastobs;k++)        /*      fprintf(ficresp, "#Count between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);*/
             covar[ncov+1][k]=covar[atoi(stre)][k]*covar[atoi(strc)][k];  
         }        if  (cptcovn>0) {
         else {cutv(strd,strc,strb,'V');          fprintf(ficresp, "\n#********** Variable "); 
         Tvar[i+1]=atoi(strc);          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresp, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
         }          fprintf(ficresp, "**********\n#");
         strcpy(modelsav,stra);          }
       }        for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) 
       cutv(strd,strc,stra,'V');          fprintf(ficresp, " Age Prev(%d) N(%d) N",i,i);
       Tvar[1]=atoi(strc);        fprintf(ficresp, "\n");
     }        
   }        for(i=iagemin; i <= iagemax+3; i++){
   /*printf("tvar=%d ",Tvar[1]);          if(i==iagemax+3){
   scanf("%d ",i);*/            fprintf(ficlog,"Total");
     fclose(fic);          }else{
             if(first==1){
     if (weightopt != 1) { /* Maximisation without weights*/              first=0;
       for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0;              printf("See log file for details...\n");
     }            }
     /*-calculation of age at interview from date of interview and age at death -*/            fprintf(ficlog,"Age %d", i);
     agev=matrix(1,maxwav,1,imx);          }
              for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {            for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)
       agedc[i]=(moisdc[i]/12.+andc[i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+annais[i]);              pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i]; 
       for(m=1; (m<= maxwav); m++){          }
         if(s[m][i] >0){          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
           if (s[m][i] == nlstate+1) {            for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)
             if(agedc[i]>0)              pos += freq[jk][m][i];
               if(moisdc[i]!=99 && andc[i]!=9999)            if(pp[jk]>=1.e-10){
               agev[m][i]=agedc[i];              if(first==1){
             else{              printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);
               printf("Warning negative age at death: %d line:%d\n",num[i],i);              }
               agev[m][i]=-1;              fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);
             }            }else{
           }              if(first==1)
           else if(s[m][i] !=9){ /* Should no more exist */                printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
             agev[m][i]=(mint[m][i]/12.+1./24.+anint[m][i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+1./24.+annais[i]);              fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
             if(mint[m][i]==99 || anint[m][i]==9999)            }
               agev[m][i]=1;          }
             else if(agev[m][i] <agemin){  
               agemin=agev[m][i];          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
               /*printf(" Min anint[%d][%d]=%.2f annais[%d]=%.2f, agemin=%.2f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], agemin);*/            for(m=0, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)
             }              pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];
             else if(agev[m][i] >agemax){          }       
               agemax=agev[m][i];          for(jk=1,pos=0,posprop=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
              /* printf(" anint[%d][%d]=%.0f annais[%d]=%.0f, agemax=%.0f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], agemax);*/            pos += pp[jk];
             }            posprop += prop[jk][i];
             /*agev[m][i]=anint[m][i]-annais[i];*/          }
             /*   agev[m][i] = age[i]+2*m;*/          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
           }            if(pos>=1.e-5){
           else { /* =9 */              if(first==1)
             agev[m][i]=1;                printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);
             s[m][i]=-1;              fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);
           }            }else{
         }              if(first==1)
         else /*= 0 Unknown */                printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
           agev[m][i]=1;              fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
       }            }
                if( i <= iagemax){
     }              if(pos>=1.e-5){
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {                fprintf(ficresp," %d %.5f %.0f %.0f",i,prop[jk][i]/posprop, prop[jk][i],posprop);
       for(m=1; (m<= maxwav); m++){                /*probs[i][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;*/
         if (s[m][i] > (nlstate+ndeath)) {                /*printf("\ni=%d jk=%d j1=%d %.5f %.0f %.0f %f",i,jk,j1,pp[jk]/pos, pp[jk],pos,probs[i][jk][j1]);*/
           printf("Error: Wrong value in nlstate or ndeath\n");                }
           goto end;              else
         }                fprintf(ficresp," %d NaNq %.0f %.0f",i,prop[jk][i],posprop);
       }            }
     }          }
           
 printf("Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx, agemin, agemax);          for(jk=-1; jk <=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)
             for(m=-1; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)
     free_vector(severity,1,maxwav);              if(freq[jk][m][i] !=0 ) {
     free_imatrix(outcome,1,maxwav+1,1,n);              if(first==1)
     free_vector(moisnais,1,n);                printf(" %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);
     free_vector(annais,1,n);                fprintf(ficlog," %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);
     free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);              }
     free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n);          if(i <= iagemax)
     free_vector(moisdc,1,n);            fprintf(ficresp,"\n");
     free_vector(andc,1,n);          if(first==1)
             printf("Others in log...\n");
              fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
     wav=ivector(1,imx);        }
     dh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);      }
     mw=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);    }
        dateintmean=dateintsum/k2cpt; 
     /* Concatenates waves */   
       concatwav(wav, dh, mw, s, agedc, agev,  firstpass, lastpass, imx, nlstate, stepm);    fclose(ficresp);
     free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath, iagemin, iagemax+3);
     free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);
 Tcode=ivector(1,100);    free_matrix(prop,1,nlstate,iagemin, iagemax+3);
    nbcode=imatrix(1,nvar,1,8);      /* End of Freq */
    ncodemax[1]=1;  }
    if (cptcovn > 0) tricode(Tvar,nbcode,imx);  
    /************ Prevalence ********************/
    codtab=imatrix(1,100,1,10);  void prevalence(double ***probs, double agemin, double agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, double dateprev1,double dateprev2, int firstpass, int lastpass)
    h=0;  {  
    m=pow(2,cptcovn);    /* Compute observed prevalence between dateprev1 and dateprev2 by counting the number of people
         in each health status at the date of interview (if between dateprev1 and dateprev2).
    for(k=1;k<=cptcovn; k++){       We still use firstpass and lastpass as another selection.
      for(i=1; i <=(m/pow(2,k));i++){    */
        for(j=1; j <= ncodemax[k]; j++){   
          for(cpt=1; cpt <=(m/pow(2,cptcovn+1-k)); cpt++){    int i, m, jk, k1, i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;
            h++;    double ***freq; /* Frequencies */
            if (h>m) h=1;codtab[h][k]=j;    double *pp, **prop;
          }    double pos,posprop; 
        }    double  y2; /* in fractional years */
      }    int iagemin, iagemax;
    }  
     iagemin= (int) agemin;
    /*for(i=1; i <=m ;i++){    iagemax= (int) agemax;
      for(k=1; k <=cptcovn; k++){    /*pp=vector(1,nlstate);*/
        printf("i=%d k=%d %d ",i,k,codtab[i][k]);    prop=matrix(1,nlstate,iagemin,iagemax+3); 
      }    /*  freq=ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,iagemin,iagemax+3);*/
      printf("\n");    j1=0;
    }*/    
    /*scanf("%d",i);*/    j=cptcoveff;
        if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
    /* Calculates basic frequencies. Computes observed prevalence at single age    
        and prints on file fileres'p'. */    for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){
   freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax);      for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
         j1++;
     pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */        
     oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */        for (i=1; i<=nlstate; i++)  
     newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */          for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
     savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */            prop[i][m]=0.0;
     oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */       
            for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) { /* Each individual */
     /* For Powell, parameters are in a vector p[] starting at p[1]          bool=1;
        so we point p on param[1][1] so that p[1] maps on param[1][1][1] */          if  (cptcovn>0) {
     p=param[1][1]; /* *(*(*(param +1)+1)+0) */            for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) 
                  if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]) 
     mlikeli(ficres,p, npar, ncovmodel, nlstate, ftol, func);                bool=0;
           } 
              if (bool==1) { 
     /*--------- results files --------------*/            for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){/* Other selection (we can limit to certain interviews*/
     fprintf(ficres,"\ntitle=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncov=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncov, nlstate, ndeath, maxwav, mle,weightopt,model);              y2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.); /* Fractional date in year */
                  if ((y2>=dateprev1) && (y2<=dateprev2)) { /* Here is the main selection (fractional years) */
    jk=1;                if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=iagemax+1;
    fprintf(ficres,"# Parameters\n");                if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=iagemax+2;
    printf("# Parameters\n");                if((int)agev[m][i] <iagemin || (int)agev[m][i] >iagemax+3) printf("Error on individual =%d agev[m][i]=%f m=%d\n",i, agev[m][i],m); 
    for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){                if (s[m][i]>0 && s[m][i]<=nlstate) { 
      for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){                  /*if(i>4620) printf(" i=%d m=%d s[m][i]=%d (int)agev[m][i]=%d weight[i]=%f prop=%f\n",i,m,s[m][i],(int)agev[m][m],weight[i],prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]]);*/
        if (k != i)                  prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
          {                  prop[s[m][i]][iagemax+3] += weight[i]; 
            printf("%d%d ",i,k);                } 
            fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d ",i,k);              }
            for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){            } /* end selection of waves */
              printf("%f ",p[jk]);          }
              fprintf(ficres,"%f ",p[jk]);        }
              jk++;        for(i=iagemin; i <= iagemax+3; i++){  
            }          
            printf("\n");          for(jk=1,posprop=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++) { 
            fprintf(ficres,"\n");            posprop += prop[jk][i]; 
          }          } 
      }  
    }          for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){     
             if( i <=  iagemax){ 
     /* Computing hessian and covariance matrix */              if(posprop>=1.e-5){ 
     ftolhess=ftol; /* Usually correct */                probs[i][jk][j1]= prop[jk][i]/posprop;
     hesscov(matcov, p, npar, delti, ftolhess, func);              } 
     fprintf(ficres,"# Scales\n");            } 
     printf("# Scales\n");          }/* end jk */ 
      for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){        }/* end i */ 
       for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){      } /* end i1 */
         if (j!=i) {    } /* end k1 */
           fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d",i,j);    
           printf("%1d%1d",i,j);    /*  free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath, iagemin, iagemax+3);*/
           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){    /*free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);*/
             printf(" %.5e",delti[jk]);    free_matrix(prop,1,nlstate, iagemin,iagemax+3);
             fprintf(ficres," %.5e",delti[jk]);  }  /* End of prevalence */
             jk++;  
           }  /************* Waves Concatenation ***************/
           printf("\n");  
           fprintf(ficres,"\n");  void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int **bh,  int **mw, int **s, double *agedc, double **agev, int  firstpass, int lastpass, int imx, int nlstate, int stepm)
         }  {
       }    /* Concatenates waves: wav[i] is the number of effective (useful waves) of individual i.
       }       Death is a valid wave (if date is known).
           mw[mi][i] is the mi (mi=1 to wav[i])  effective wave of individual i
     k=1;       dh[m][i] or dh[mw[mi][i]][i] is the delay between two effective waves m=mw[mi][i]
     fprintf(ficres,"# Covariance\n");       and mw[mi+1][i]. dh depends on stepm.
     printf("# Covariance\n");       */
     for(i=1;i<=npar;i++){  
       /*  if (k>nlstate) k=1;    int i, mi, m;
       i1=(i-1)/(ncovmodel*nlstate)+1;    /* int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl,jmin=1e+5, jmax=-1;
       fprintf(ficres,"%s%d%d",alph[k],i1,tab[i]);       double sum=0., jmean=0.;*/
       printf("%s%d%d",alph[k],i1,tab[i]);*/    int first;
       fprintf(ficres,"%3d",i);    int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl;
       printf("%3d",i);    double sum=0.;
       for(j=1; j<=i;j++){    first=0;
         fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[i][j]);    jmin=1e+5;
         printf(" %.5e",matcov[i][j]);    jmax=-1;
       }    jmean=0.;
       fprintf(ficres,"\n");    for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){
       printf("\n");      mi=0;
       k++;      m=firstpass;
     }      while(s[m][i] <= nlstate){
            if(s[m][i]>=1)
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){          mw[++mi][i]=m;
       ungetc(c,ficpar);        if(m >=lastpass)
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);          break;
       puts(line);        else
       fputs(line,ficparo);          m++;
     }      }/* end while */
     ungetc(c,ficpar);      if (s[m][i] > nlstate){
          mi++;     /* Death is another wave */
     fscanf(ficpar,"agemin=%lf agemax=%lf bage=%lf fage=%lf\n",&agemin,&agemax, &bage, &fage);        /* if(mi==0)  never been interviewed correctly before death */
               /* Only death is a correct wave */
     if (fage <= 2) {        mw[mi][i]=m;
       bage = agemin;      }
       fage = agemax;  
     }      wav[i]=mi;
       if(mi==0){
     fprintf(ficres,"# agemin agemax for life expectancy, bage fage (if mle==0 ie no data nor Max likelihood).\n");        nbwarn++;
     fprintf(ficres,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f\n",agemin,agemax,bage,fage);        if(first==0){
 /*------------ gnuplot -------------*/          printf("Warning! None valid information for:%ld line=%d (skipped) and may be others, see log file\n",num[i],i);
 chdir(pathcd);          first=1;
   if((ficgp=fopen("graph.plt","w"))==NULL) {        }
     printf("Problem with file graph.gp");goto end;        if(first==1){
   }          fprintf(ficlog,"Warning! None valid information for:%ld line=%d (skipped)\n",num[i],i);
 #ifdef windows        }
   fprintf(ficgp,"cd \"%s\" \n",pathc);      } /* end mi==0 */
 #endif    } /* End individuals */
 m=pow(2,cptcovn);  
      for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){
  /* 1eme*/      for(mi=1; mi<wav[i];mi++){
   for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {        if (stepm <=0)
    for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {          dh[mi][i]=1;
         else{
 #ifdef windows          if (s[mw[mi+1][i]][i] > nlstate) { /* A death */
     fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nset ter gif small size 400,300\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"vpl%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",agemin,fage,fileres,k1-1,k1-1);            if (agedc[i] < 2*AGESUP) {
 #endif              j= rint(agedc[i]*12-agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12); 
 #ifdef unix              if(j==0) j=1;  /* Survives at least one month after exam */
 fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nplot [%.f:%.f] \"vpl%s\" u 1:2 \"\%%lf",agemin,fage,fileres);              else if(j<0){
 #endif                nberr++;
                 printf("Error! Negative delay (%d to death) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
 for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {                j=1; /* Temporary Dangerous patch */
   if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");                printf("   We assumed that the date of interview was correct (and not the date of death) and postponed the death %d month(s) (one stepm) after the interview.\n  You MUST fix the contradiction between dates.\n",stepm);
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");                fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Negative delay (%d to death) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
 }                fprintf(ficlog,"   We assumed that the date of interview was correct (and not the date of death) and postponed the death %d month(s) (one stepm) after the interview.\n  You MUST fix the contradiction between dates.\n",stepm);
     fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"Stationary prevalence\" w l 0,\"vpl%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+2*$3) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);              }
     for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {              k=k+1;
   if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");              if (j >= jmax) jmax=j;
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");              if (j <= jmin) jmin=j;
 }              sum=sum+j;
   fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"95\%% CI\" w l 1,\"vpl%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-2*$3) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);              /*if (j<0) printf("j=%d num=%d \n",j,i);*/
      for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {              /*    printf("%d %d %d %d\n", s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i],j,i);*/
   if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");            }
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");          }
 }            else{
      fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 1,\"p%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d) t\"Observed prevalence \" w l 2",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,2+4*(cpt-1));            j= rint( (agev[mw[mi+1][i]][i]*12 - agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12));
 #ifdef unix            /*      printf("%d %d %d %d\n", s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i],j,i);*/
 fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter gif small size 400,300");            k=k+1;
 #endif            if (j >= jmax) jmax=j;
 fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"v%s%d%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);            else if (j <= jmin)jmin=j;
    }            /*        if (j<10) printf("j=%d jmin=%d num=%d ",j,jmin,i); */
   }            /*printf("%d %lf %d %d %d\n", i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],j,s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);*/
   /*2 eme*/            if(j<0){
               nberr++;
   for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {              printf("Error! Negative delay (%d) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
     fprintf(ficgp,"set ylabel \"Years\" \nset ter gif small size 400,300\nplot [%.f:%.f] ",agemin,fage);              fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Negative delay (%d) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
                }
     for (i=1; i<= nlstate+1 ; i ++) {            sum=sum+j;
       k=2*i;          }
       fprintf(ficgp,"\"t%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);          jk= j/stepm;
       for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {          jl= j -jk*stepm;
   if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");          ju= j -(jk+1)*stepm;
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");          if(mle <=1){ /* only if we use a the linear-interpoloation pseudo-likelihood */
 }              if(jl==0){
       if (i== 1) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"TLE\" w l ,");              dh[mi][i]=jk;
       else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"LE in state (%d)\" w l ,",i-1);              bh[mi][i]=0;
     fprintf(ficgp,"\"t%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-$3*2) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);            }else{ /* We want a negative bias in order to only have interpolation ie
       for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {                    * at the price of an extra matrix product in likelihood */
         if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");              dh[mi][i]=jk+1;
         else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");              bh[mi][i]=ju;
 }              }
       fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");          }else{
      fprintf(ficgp,"\"t%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+$3*2) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);            if(jl <= -ju){
       for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {              dh[mi][i]=jk;
   if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");              bh[mi][i]=jl;       /* bias is positive if real duration
   else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");                                   * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
 }                                     */
       if (i== (nlstate+1)) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0");            }
       else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");            else{
     }              dh[mi][i]=jk+1;
     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"e%s%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),k1);              bh[mi][i]=ju;
   }            }
              if(dh[mi][i]==0){
   /*3eme*/              dh[mi][i]=1; /* At least one step */
               bh[mi][i]=ju; /* At least one step */
   for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {              /*  printf(" bh=%d ju=%d jl=%d dh=%d jk=%d stepm=%d %d\n",bh[mi][i],ju,jl,dh[mi][i],jk,stepm,i);*/
     for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {            }
       k=2+nlstate*(cpt-1);          } /* end if mle */
       fprintf(ficgp,"set ter gif small size 400,300\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d1\" w l",agemin,fage,fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,cpt);        }
       for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {      } /* end wave */
         fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k+i,cpt,i+1);    }
       }    jmean=sum/k;
       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"exp%s%d%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);    printf("Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%f\n\n ",jmin, jmax,jmean);
     }    fprintf(ficlog,"Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%f\n\n ",jmin, jmax,jmean);
   }   }
    
   /* CV preval stat */  /*********** Tricode ****************************/
   for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {  void tricode(int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int imx)
     for (cpt=1; cpt<nlstate ; cpt ++) {  {
       k=3;    
       fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nset ter gif small size 400,300\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"pij%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",agemin,agemax,fileres,k1,k+cpt+1,k+1);    int Ndum[20],ij=1, k, j, i, maxncov=19;
       for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++)    int cptcode=0;
         fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+i+1);    cptcoveff=0; 
       fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l",cpt,cpt+1);   
          for (k=0; k<maxncov; k++) Ndum[k]=0;
       l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;    for (k=1; k<=7; k++) ncodemax[k]=0;
       fprintf(ficgp,",\"pij%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",fileres,k1,l+cpt+1,l+1);  
       for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {    for (j=1; j<=(cptcovn+2*cptcovprod); j++) {
         l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;      for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) { /*reads the data file to get the maximum 
         fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",l+i+1);                                 modality*/ 
       }        ij=(int)(covar[Tvar[j]][i]); /* ij is the modality of this individual*/
       fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l\n",cpt+1,cpt+1);          Ndum[ij]++; /*store the modality */
       fprintf(ficgp,"set out \"p%s%d%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);        /*printf("i=%d ij=%d Ndum[ij]=%d imx=%d",i,ij,Ndum[ij],imx);*/
     }        if (ij > cptcode) cptcode=ij; /* getting the maximum of covariable 
   }                                         Tvar[j]. If V=sex and male is 0 and 
                                          female is 1, then  cptcode=1.*/
   /* proba elementaires */      }
    for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){  
     for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){      for (i=0; i<=cptcode; i++) {
       if (k != i) {        if(Ndum[i]!=0) ncodemax[j]++; /* Nomber of modalities of the j th covariates. In fact ncodemax[j]=2 (dichotom. variables) but it can be more */
         for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){      }
           /*fprintf(ficgp,"%s%1d%1d=%f ",alph[j],i,k,p[jk]);*/  
           /*fprintf(ficgp,"%s",alph[1]);*/      ij=1; 
           fprintf(ficgp,"p%d=%f ",jk,p[jk]);      for (i=1; i<=ncodemax[j]; i++) {
           jk++;        for (k=0; k<= maxncov; k++) {
           fprintf(ficgp,"\n");          if (Ndum[k] != 0) {
         }            nbcode[Tvar[j]][ij]=k; 
       }            /* store the modality in an array. k is a modality. If we have model=V1+V1*sex then: nbcode[1][1]=0 ; nbcode[1][2]=1; nbcode[2][1]=0 ; nbcode[2][2]=1; */
     }            
     }            ij++;
           }
   for(jk=1; jk <=m; jk++) {          if (ij > ncodemax[j]) break; 
   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter gif small size 400,300\nset log y\nplot  [%.f:%.f] ",agemin,agemax);        }  
    i=1;      } 
    for(k2=1; k2<=nlstate; k2++) {    }  
      k3=i;  
      for(k=1; k<=(nlstate+ndeath); k++) {   for (k=0; k< maxncov; k++) Ndum[k]=0;
        if (k != k2){  
         fprintf(ficgp," exp(p%d+p%d*x",i,i+1);   for (i=1; i<=ncovmodel-2; i++) { 
      /* Listing of all covariables in staement model to see if some covariates appear twice. For example, V1 appears twice in V1+V1*V2.*/
         for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++)     ij=Tvar[i];
           fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",k2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);     Ndum[ij]++;
         fprintf(ficgp,")/(1");   }
   
         for(k1=1; k1 <=nlstate+1; k1=k1+2){     ij=1;
             fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x",k1+k3-1,k1+k3);   for (i=1; i<= maxncov; i++) {
      if((Ndum[i]!=0) && (i<=ncovcol)){
             for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++)       Tvaraff[ij]=i; /*For printing */
               fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",k2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);       ij++;
             fprintf(ficgp,")");     }
         }   }
         fprintf(ficgp,") t \"p%d%d\" ", k2,k);   
         if ((k+k2)!= (nlstate*2+ndeath)) fprintf(ficgp,",");   cptcoveff=ij-1; /*Number of simple covariates*/
     i=i+ncovmodel;  }
        }  
      }  /*********** Health Expectancies ****************/
    }  
   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"pe%s%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),jk);  void evsij(char fileres[], double ***eij, double x[], int nlstate, int stepm, int bage, int fage, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij, int estepm,double delti[],double **matcov )
    }  
      {
   fclose(ficgp);    /* Health expectancies */
        int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm, k, cptj;
 chdir(path);    double age, agelim, hf;
     free_matrix(agev,1,maxwav,1,imx);    double ***p3mat,***varhe;
     free_ivector(wav,1,imx);    double **dnewm,**doldm;
     free_imatrix(dh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);    double *xp;
     free_imatrix(mw,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);    double **gp, **gm;
        double ***gradg, ***trgradg;
     free_imatrix(s,1,maxwav+1,1,n);    int theta;
      
        varhe=ma3x(1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
     free_ivector(num,1,n);    xp=vector(1,npar);
     free_vector(agedc,1,n);    dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
     free_vector(weight,1,n);    doldm=matrix(1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate);
     /*free_matrix(covar,1,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/    
     fclose(ficparo);    fprintf(ficreseij,"# Health expectancies\n");
     fclose(ficres);    fprintf(ficreseij,"# Age");
    }    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
          for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
    /*________fin mle=1_________*/        fprintf(ficreseij," %1d-%1d (SE)",i,j);
        fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");
   
      if(estepm < stepm){
     /* No more information from the sample is required now */      printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */    }
   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){    else  hstepm=estepm;   
     ungetc(c,ficpar);    /* We compute the life expectancy from trapezoids spaced every estepm months
     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);     * This is mainly to measure the difference between two models: for example
     puts(line);     * if stepm=24 months pijx are given only every 2 years and by summing them
     fputs(line,ficparo);     * we are calculating an estimate of the Life Expectancy assuming a linear 
   }     * progression in between and thus overestimating or underestimating according
   ungetc(c,ficpar);     * to the curvature of the survival function. If, for the same date, we 
       * estimate the model with stepm=1 month, we can keep estepm to 24 months
   fscanf(ficpar,"agemin=%lf agemax=%lf bage=%lf fage=%lf\n",&agemin,&agemax, &bage, &fage);     * to compare the new estimate of Life expectancy with the same linear 
   printf("agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f\n",agemin,agemax, bage, fage);     * hypothesis. A more precise result, taking into account a more precise
   fprintf(ficparo,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f\n",agemin,agemax,bage,fage);     * curvature will be obtained if estepm is as small as stepm. */
 /*--------- index.htm --------*/  
     /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
   if((fichtm=fopen("index.htm","w"))==NULL)    {    /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm. 
     printf("Problem with index.htm \n");goto end;       nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim 
   }       nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin. 
        Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size
  fprintf(fichtm,"<body><ul> Imach, Version 0.64a<hr> <li>Outputs files<br><br>\n       and note for a fixed period like estepm months */
         - Observed prevalence in each state: <a href=\"p%s\">p%s</a> <br>\n    /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
 - Estimated parameters and the covariance matrix: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>       survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
         - Stationary prevalence in each state: <a href=\"pl%s\">pl%s</a> <br>       means that if the survival funtion is printed only each two years of age and if
         - Transition probabilities: <a href=\"pij%s\">pij%s</a><br>       you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same 
         - Copy of the parameter file: <a href=\"o%s\">o%s</a><br>       results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.
         - Life expectancies by age and initial health status: <a href=\"e%s\">e%s</a> <br>    */
         - Variances of life expectancies by age and initial health status: <a href=\"v%s\">v%s</a><br>    hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */ 
         - Health expectancies with their variances: <a href=\"t%s\">t%s</a> <br>  
         - Standard deviation of stationary prevalences: <a href=\"vpl%s\">vpl%s</a> <br><br>",fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres);    agelim=AGESUP;
     for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
  fprintf(fichtm," <li>Graphs</li>\n<p>");      /* nhstepm age range expressed in number of stepm */
       nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); 
  m=cptcovn;      /* Typically if 20 years nstepm = 20*12/6=40 stepm */ 
  if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}      /* if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;*/
       nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
  j1=0;      p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
  for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){      gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate*nlstate);
    for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){      gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
        j1++;      gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
        if (cptcovn > 0) {  
          fprintf(fichtm,"<hr>************ Results for covariates");      /* Computed by stepm unit matrices, product of hstepm matrices, stored
          for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcovn;cpt++)         in an array of nhstepm length: nhstepm=10, hstepm=4, stepm=6 months */
            fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvar[cpt],nbcode[Tvar[cpt]][codtab[j1][cpt]]);      hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm, savm, ij);  
          fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr>");   
        }  
        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Probabilities: pe%s%d.gif<br>      hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
 <img src=\"pe%s%d.gif\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),j1,strtok(optionfile, "."),j1);      
        for(cpt=1; cpt<nlstate;cpt++){      /* Computing  Variances of health expectancies */
          fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Prevalence of disability : p%s%d%d.gif<br>  
 <img src=\"p%s%d%d.gif\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,j1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,j1);       for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
        }        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ 
     for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {          xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Observed and stationary prevalence (with confident        }
 interval) in state (%d): v%s%d%d.gif <br>        hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
 <img src=\"v%s%d%d.gif\">",cpt,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,j1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,j1);      
      }        cptj=0;
      for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {        for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
         fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Health life expectancies by age and initial health state (%d): exp%s%d%d.gif <br>          for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++){
 <img src=\"exp%s%d%d.gif\">",cpt,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,j1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,j1);            cptj=cptj+1;
      }            for(h=0, gp[h][cptj]=0.; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
      fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Total life expectancy by age and              gp[h][cptj] = (p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.;
 health expectancies in states (1) and (2): e%s%d.gif<br>            }
 <img src=\"e%s%d.gif\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),j1,strtok(optionfile, "."),j1);          }
 fprintf(fichtm,"\n</body>");        }
    }       
  }       
 fclose(fichtm);        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) 
           xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
   /*--------------- Prevalence limit --------------*/        hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
          
   strcpy(filerespl,"pl");        cptj=0;
   strcat(filerespl,fileres);        for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
   if((ficrespl=fopen(filerespl,"w"))==NULL) {          for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++){
     printf("Problem with Prev limit resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);goto end;            cptj=cptj+1;
   }            for(h=0, gm[h][cptj]=0.; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
   printf("Computing prevalence limit: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);  
   fprintf(ficrespl,"#Prevalence limit\n");              gm[h][cptj] = (p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.;
   fprintf(ficrespl,"#Age ");            }
   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrespl,"%d-%d ",i,i);          }
   fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");        }
          for(j=1; j<= nlstate*nlstate; j++)
   prlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);          for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
   pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */            gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];
   oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */          }
   newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */       } 
   savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */     
   oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */  /* End theta */
   k=0;  
   agebase=agemin;       trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
   agelim=agemax;  
   ftolpl=1.e-10;       for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++)
   i1=cptcovn;        for(j=1; j<=nlstate*nlstate;j++)
   if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}          for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
             trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){       
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){  
         k=k+1;       for(i=1;i<=nlstate*nlstate;i++)
         /*printf("cptcov=%d cptcod=%d codtab=%d nbcode=%d\n",cptcov, cptcod,Tcode[cptcode],codtab[cptcod][cptcov]);*/        for(j=1;j<=nlstate*nlstate;j++)
         fprintf(ficrespl,"\n#****** ");          varhe[i][j][(int)age] =0.;
         for(j=1;j<=cptcovn;j++)  
           fprintf(ficrespl,"V%d=%d ",Tvar[j],nbcode[Tvar[j]][codtab[k][j]]);       printf("%d|",(int)age);fflush(stdout);
         fprintf(ficrespl,"******\n");       fprintf(ficlog,"%d|",(int)age);fflush(ficlog);
               for(h=0;h<=nhstepm-1;h++){
         for (age=agebase; age<=agelim; age++){        for(k=0;k<=nhstepm-1;k++){
           prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);          matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
           fprintf(ficrespl,"%.0f",age );          matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate*nlstate,gradg[k]);
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)          for(i=1;i<=nlstate*nlstate;i++)
           fprintf(ficrespl," %.5f", prlim[i][i]);            for(j=1;j<=nlstate*nlstate;j++)
           fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");              varhe[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j]*hf*hf;
         }        }
       }      }
     }      /* Computing expectancies */
   fclose(ficrespl);      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
   /*------------- h Pij x at various ages ------------*/        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
            for (h=0, eij[i][j][(int)age]=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
   strcpy(filerespij,"pij");  strcat(filerespij,fileres);            eij[i][j][(int)age] += (p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.0*hf;
   if((ficrespij=fopen(filerespij,"w"))==NULL) {            
     printf("Problem with Pij resultfile: %s\n", filerespij);goto end;  /* if((int)age==70)printf("i=%2d,j=%2d,h=%2d,age=%3d,%9.4f,%9.4f,%9.4f\n",i,j,h,(int)age,p3mat[i][j][h],hf,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
   }  
   printf("Computing pij: result on file '%s' \n", filerespij);          }
    
   stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;      fprintf(ficreseij,"%3.0f",age );
   if (stepm<=24) stepsize=2;      cptj=0;
       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
   agelim=AGESUP;        for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
   hstepm=stepsize*YEARM; /* Every year of age */          cptj++;
   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */          fprintf(ficreseij," %9.4f (%.4f)", eij[i][j][(int)age], sqrt(varhe[cptj][cptj][(int)age]) );
          }
   k=0;      fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){     
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){      free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
       k=k+1;      free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
         fprintf(ficrespij,"\n#****** ");      free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate*nlstate);
         for(j=1;j<=cptcovn;j++)      free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
           fprintf(ficrespij,"V%d=%d ",Tvar[j],nbcode[Tvar[j]][codtab[k][j]]);      free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
         fprintf(ficrespij,"******\n");    }
            printf("\n");
         for (agedeb=fage; agedeb>=bage; agedeb--){ /* If stepm=6 months */    fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
           nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */  
           nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */    free_vector(xp,1,npar);
           p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);    free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;    free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate);
           hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);      free_ma3x(varhe,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
           fprintf(ficrespij,"# Age");  }
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)  
             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)  /************ Variance ******************/
               fprintf(ficrespij," %1d-%1d",i,j);  void varevsij(char optionfilefiname[], double ***vareij, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij, int estepm, int cptcov, int cptcod, int popbased, int mobilav)
           fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");  {
           for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){    /* Variance of health expectancies */
             fprintf(ficrespij,"%d %.0f %.0f",k,agedeb, agedeb+ h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm );    /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double ** savm,double ftolpl);*/
             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)    /* double **newm;*/
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)    double **dnewm,**doldm;
                 fprintf(ficrespij," %.5f", p3mat[i][j][h]);    double **dnewmp,**doldmp;
             fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");    int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm ;
           }    int k, cptcode;
           free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);    double *xp;
           fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");    double **gp, **gm;  /* for var eij */
         }    double ***gradg, ***trgradg; /*for var eij */
     }    double **gradgp, **trgradgp; /* for var p point j */
   }    double *gpp, *gmp; /* for var p point j */
     double **varppt; /* for var p point j nlstate to nlstate+ndeath */
   fclose(ficrespij);    double ***p3mat;
     double age,agelim, hf;
   /*---------- Health expectancies and variances ------------*/    double ***mobaverage;
     int theta;
   strcpy(filerest,"t");    char digit[4];
   strcat(filerest,fileres);    char digitp[25];
   if((ficrest=fopen(filerest,"w"))==NULL) {  
     printf("Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;    char fileresprobmorprev[FILENAMELENGTH];
   }  
   printf("Computing Total LEs with variances: file '%s' \n", filerest);    if(popbased==1){
       if(mobilav!=0)
         strcpy(digitp,"-populbased-mobilav-");
   strcpy(filerese,"e");      else strcpy(digitp,"-populbased-nomobil-");
   strcat(filerese,fileres);    }
   if((ficreseij=fopen(filerese,"w"))==NULL) {    else 
     printf("Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);      strcpy(digitp,"-stablbased-");
   }  
   printf("Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);    if (mobilav!=0) {
       mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
  strcpy(fileresv,"v");      if (movingaverage(probs, bage, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
   strcat(fileresv,fileres);        fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
   if((ficresvij=fopen(fileresv,"w"))==NULL) {        printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
     printf("Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);      }
   }    }
   printf("Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);  
     strcpy(fileresprobmorprev,"prmorprev"); 
   k=0;    sprintf(digit,"%-d",ij);
   for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){    /*printf("DIGIT=%s, ij=%d ijr=%-d|\n",digit, ij,ij);*/
     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){    strcat(fileresprobmorprev,digit); /* Tvar to be done */
       k=k+1;    strcat(fileresprobmorprev,digitp); /* Popbased or not, mobilav or not */
       fprintf(ficrest,"\n#****** ");    strcat(fileresprobmorprev,fileres);
       for(j=1;j<=cptcovn;j++)    if((ficresprobmorprev=fopen(fileresprobmorprev,"w"))==NULL) {
         fprintf(ficrest,"V%d=%d ",Tvar[j],nbcode[Tvar[j]][codtab[k][j]]);      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobmorprev);
       fprintf(ficrest,"******\n");      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobmorprev);
     }
       fprintf(ficreseij,"\n#****** ");    printf("Computing total mortality p.j=w1*p1j+w2*p2j+..: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobmorprev);
       for(j=1;j<=cptcovn;j++)    fprintf(ficlog,"Computing total mortality p.j=w1*p1j+w2*p2j+..: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobmorprev);
         fprintf(ficreseij,"V%d=%d ",j,nbcode[j][codtab[k][j]]);    fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"# probabilities of dying before estepm=%d months for people of exact age and weighted probabilities w1*p1j+w2*p2j+... stand dev in()\n",estepm);
       fprintf(ficreseij,"******\n");    fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"# Age cov=%-d",ij);
     for(j=nlstate+1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
       fprintf(ficresvij,"\n#****** ");      fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," p.%-d SE",j);
       for(j=1;j<=cptcovn;j++)      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
         fprintf(ficresvij,"V%d=%d ",j,nbcode[j][codtab[k][j]]);        fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," w%1d p%-d%-d",i,i,j);
       fprintf(ficresvij,"******\n");    }  
     fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"\n");
       eij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);    fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Routine varevsij");
       oldm=oldms;savm=savms;    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> Computing probabilities of dying over estepm months as a weighted average (i.e global mortality independent of initial healh state)</h4></li>\n");
       evsij(fileres, eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k);      fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>%s  <br>\n",digitp);
       vareij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);  /*   } */
       oldm=oldms;savm=savms;    varppt = matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
       varevsij(fileres, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k);  
          fprintf(ficresvij,"# Variance and covariance of health expectancies e.j \n#  (weighted average of eij where weights are the stable prevalence in health states i\n");
       fprintf(ficrest,"#Total LEs with variances: e.. (std) ");    fprintf(ficresvij,"# Age");
       for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrest,"e.%d (std) ",i);    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
       fprintf(ficrest,"\n");      for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
                fprintf(ficresvij," Cov(e%1d, e%1d)",i,j);
       hf=1;    fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
       if (stepm >= YEARM) hf=stepm/YEARM;  
       epj=vector(1,nlstate+1);    xp=vector(1,npar);
       for(age=bage; age <=fage ;age++){    dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
         prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);    doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
         fprintf(ficrest," %.0f",age);    dnewmp= matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar);
         for(j=1, epj[nlstate+1]=0.;j <=nlstate;j++){    doldmp= matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
           for(i=1, epj[j]=0.;i <=nlstate;i++) {  
             epj[j] += prlim[i][i]*hf*eij[i][j][(int)age];    gradgp=matrix(1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
           }    gpp=vector(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
           epj[nlstate+1] +=epj[j];    gmp=vector(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
         }    trgradgp =matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar); /* mu or p point j*/
         for(i=1, vepp=0.;i <=nlstate;i++)    
           for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++)    if(estepm < stepm){
             vepp += vareij[i][j][(int)age];      printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
         fprintf(ficrest," %.2f (%.2f)", epj[nlstate+1],hf*sqrt(vepp));    }
         for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++){    else  hstepm=estepm;   
           fprintf(ficrest," %.2f (%.2f)", epj[j],hf*sqrt(vareij[j][j][(int)age]));    /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
         }    /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm. 
         fprintf(ficrest,"\n");       nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim 
       }       nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin. 
     }       Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size
   }       and note for a fixed period like k years */
            /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
  fclose(ficreseij);       survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
  fclose(ficresvij);       means that if the survival funtion is printed every two years of age and if
   fclose(ficrest);       you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same 
   fclose(ficpar);       results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.
   free_vector(epj,1,nlstate+1);    */
   /*  scanf("%d ",i); */    hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */ 
     agelim = AGESUP;
   /*------- Variance limit prevalence------*/      for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
       nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */ 
 strcpy(fileresvpl,"vpl");      nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
   strcat(fileresvpl,fileres);      p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
   if((ficresvpl=fopen(fileresvpl,"w"))==NULL) {      gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
     printf("Problem with variance prev lim resultfile: %s\n", fileresvpl);      gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
     exit(0);      gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
   }  
   printf("Computing Variance-covariance of Prevalence limit: file '%s' \n", fileresvpl);  
       for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
  k=0;        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient x + delta*/
  for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){          xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
    for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){        }
      k=k+1;        hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
      fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n#****** ");        prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
      for(j=1;j<=cptcovn;j++)  
        fprintf(ficresvpl,"V%d=%d ",Tvar[j],nbcode[Tvar[j]][codtab[k][j]]);        if (popbased==1) {
      fprintf(ficresvpl,"******\n");          if(mobilav ==0){
                  for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
      varpl=matrix(1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);              prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
      oldm=oldms;savm=savms;          }else{ /* mobilav */ 
      varprevlim(fileres, varpl, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k);            for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
    }              prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
  }          }
         }
   fclose(ficresvpl);    
         for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
   /*---------- End : free ----------------*/          for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
   free_matrix(varpl,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);            for(i=1, gp[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
                gp[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
   free_ma3x(vareij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);          }
   free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);        }
          /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
             computed over hstepm matrices product = hstepm*stepm months) 
   free_matrix(pmmij,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);           as a weighted average of prlim.
   free_matrix(oldms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);        */
   free_matrix(newms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);        for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
   free_matrix(savms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);          for(i=1,gpp[j]=0.; i<= nlstate; i++)
              gpp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
   free_matrix(matcov,1,npar,1,npar);        }    
   free_vector(delti,1,npar);        /* end probability of death */
    
   free_ma3x(param,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);        for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient x - delta */
           xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
   printf("End of Imach\n");        hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
   /*  gettimeofday(&end_time, (struct timezone*)0);*/  /* after time */        prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
     
   /* printf("Total time was %d Sec. %d uSec.\n", end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec, end_time.tv_usec -start_time.tv_usec);*/        if (popbased==1) {
   /*printf("Total time was %d uSec.\n", total_usecs);*/          if(mobilav ==0){
   /*------ End -----------*/            for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
               prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
  end:          }else{ /* mobilav */ 
 #ifdef windows            for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
  chdir(pathcd);              prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
 #endif          }
  system("wgnuplot graph.plt");        }
   
 #ifdef windows        for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
   while (z[0] != 'q') {          for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
     chdir(pathcd);            for(i=1, gm[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
     printf("\nType e to edit output files, c to start again, and q for exiting: ");              gm[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
     scanf("%s",z);          }
     if (z[0] == 'c') system("./imach");        }
     else if (z[0] == 'e') {        /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
       chdir(path);           computed over hstepm matrices product = hstepm*stepm months) 
       system("index.htm");           as a weighted average of prlim.
     }        */
     else if (z[0] == 'q') exit(0);        for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
   }          for(i=1,gmp[j]=0.; i<= nlstate; i++)
 #endif           gmp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
 }        }    
         /* end probability of death */
   
         for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++) /* vareij */
           for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
             gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];
           }
   
         for(j=nlstate+1; j<= nlstate+ndeath; j++){ /* var mu */
           gradgp[theta][j]= (gpp[j]-gmp[j])/2./delti[theta];
         }
   
       } /* End theta */
   
       trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar); /* veij */
   
       for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++) /* veij */
         for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
           for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
             trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];
   
       for(j=nlstate+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) /* mu */
         for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
           trgradgp[j][theta]=gradgp[theta][j];
     
   
       hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
         for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
           vareij[i][j][(int)age] =0.;
   
       for(h=0;h<=nhstepm;h++){
         for(k=0;k<=nhstepm;k++){
           matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
           matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg[k]);
           for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
             for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
               vareij[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j]*hf*hf;
         }
       }
     
       /* pptj */
       matprod2(dnewmp,trgradgp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
       matprod2(doldmp,dnewmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,gradgp);
       for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
         for(i=nlstate+1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)
           varppt[j][i]=doldmp[j][i];
       /* end ppptj */
       /*  x centered again */
       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,x,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
    
       if (popbased==1) {
         if(mobilav ==0){
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
             prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
         }else{ /* mobilav */ 
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
             prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
         }
       }
                
       /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
          computed over hstepm (estepm) matrices product = hstepm*stepm months) 
          as a weighted average of prlim.
       */
       for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
         for(i=1,gmp[j]=0.;i<= nlstate; i++) 
           gmp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1]; 
       }    
       /* end probability of death */
   
       fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"%3d %d ",(int) age, ij);
       for(j=nlstate+1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
         fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," %11.3e %11.3e",gmp[j], sqrt(varppt[j][j]));
         for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
           fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," %11.3e %11.3e ",prlim[i][i],p3mat[i][j][1]);
         }
       } 
       fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"\n");
   
       fprintf(ficresvij,"%.0f ",age );
       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
         for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
           fprintf(ficresvij," %.4f", vareij[i][j][(int)age]);
         }
       fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
       free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
       free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
       free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
       free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
       free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
     } /* End age */
     free_vector(gpp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
     free_vector(gmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
     free_matrix(gradgp,1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
     free_matrix(trgradgp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar); /* mu or p point j*/
     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset noparametric;set nolabel; set ter png small;set size 0.65, 0.65");
     /* for(j=nlstate+1; j<= nlstate+ndeath; j++){ *//* Only the first actually */
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n set log y; set nolog x;set xlabel \"Age\"; set ylabel \"Force of mortality (year-1)\";");
   /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n plot \"%s\"  u 1:($3*%6.3f) not w l 1 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
   /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)*%6.3f) t \"95\%% interval\" w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
   /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)*%6.3f) not w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n plot \"%s\"  u 1:($3) not w l 1 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)) t \"95\%% interval\" w l 2 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)) not w l 2 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> File (multiple files are possible if covariates are present): <A href=\"%s\">%s</a>\n",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev),subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> Probability is computed over estepm=%d months. <br> <img src=\"%s%s.png\"> <br>\n", estepm,subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"varmuptjgr",digitp),digit);
     /*  fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> Probability is computed over estepm=%d months and then divided by estepm and multiplied by %.0f in order to have the probability to die over a year <br> <img src=\"varmuptjgr%s%s.png\"> <br>\n", stepm,YEARM,digitp,digit);
   */
   /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"varmuptjgr%s%s%s.png\";replot;",digitp,optionfilefiname,digit); */
     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%s.png\";replot;\n",subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"varmuptjgr",digitp),digit);
   
     free_vector(xp,1,npar);
     free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
     free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
     free_matrix(doldmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
     free_matrix(dnewmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar);
     free_matrix(varppt,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
     if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     fclose(ficresprobmorprev);
     fflush(ficgp);
     fflush(fichtm); 
   }  /* end varevsij */
   
   /************ Variance of prevlim ******************/
   void varprevlim(char fileres[], double **varpl, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij)
   {
     /* Variance of prevalence limit */
     /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double **savm,double ftolpl);*/
     double **newm;
     double **dnewm,**doldm;
     int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm;
     int k, cptcode;
     double *xp;
     double *gp, *gm;
     double **gradg, **trgradg;
     double age,agelim;
     int theta;
      
     fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Standard deviation of stable prevalences \n");
     fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Age");
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
         fprintf(ficresvpl," %1d-%1d",i,i);
     fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
   
     xp=vector(1,npar);
     dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
     doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
     
     hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
     hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */ 
     agelim = AGESUP;
     for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
       nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */ 
       if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;
       nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */
       gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);
       gp=vector(1,nlstate);
       gm=vector(1,nlstate);
   
       for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
         for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */
           xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
         }
         prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
         for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
           gp[i] = prlim[i][i];
       
         for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */
           xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
         prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
         for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
           gm[i] = prlim[i][i];
   
         for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
           gradg[theta][i]= (gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];
       } /* End theta */
   
       trgradg =matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
   
       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
         for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
           trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
   
       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
         varpl[i][(int)age] =0.;
       matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
       matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);
       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
         varpl[i][(int)age] = doldm[i][i]; /* Covariances are useless */
   
       fprintf(ficresvpl,"%.0f ",age );
       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
         fprintf(ficresvpl," %.5f (%.5f)",prlim[i][i],sqrt(varpl[i][(int)age]));
       fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
       free_vector(gp,1,nlstate);
       free_vector(gm,1,nlstate);
       free_matrix(gradg,1,npar,1,nlstate);
       free_matrix(trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar);
     } /* End age */
   
     free_vector(xp,1,npar);
     free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
     free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
   
   }
   
   /************ Variance of one-step probabilities  ******************/
   void varprob(char optionfilefiname[], double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, double bage, double fage, int ij, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax)
   {
     int i, j=0,  i1, k1, l1, t, tj;
     int k2, l2, j1,  z1;
     int k=0,l, cptcode;
     int first=1, first1;
     double cv12, mu1, mu2, lc1, lc2, v12, v21, v11, v22,v1,v2, c12, tnalp;
     double **dnewm,**doldm;
     double *xp;
     double *gp, *gm;
     double **gradg, **trgradg;
     double **mu;
     double age,agelim, cov[NCOVMAX];
     double std=2.0; /* Number of standard deviation wide of confidence ellipsoids */
     int theta;
     char fileresprob[FILENAMELENGTH];
     char fileresprobcov[FILENAMELENGTH];
     char fileresprobcor[FILENAMELENGTH];
   
     double ***varpij;
   
     strcpy(fileresprob,"prob"); 
     strcat(fileresprob,fileres);
     if((ficresprob=fopen(fileresprob,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
     }
     strcpy(fileresprobcov,"probcov"); 
     strcat(fileresprobcov,fileres);
     if((ficresprobcov=fopen(fileresprobcov,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
     }
     strcpy(fileresprobcor,"probcor"); 
     strcat(fileresprobcor,fileres);
     if((ficresprobcor=fopen(fileresprobcor,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
     }
     printf("Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
     printf("Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
     printf("and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
     fprintf(ficlog,"and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
     
     fprintf(ficresprob,"#One-step probabilities and stand. devi in ()\n");
     fprintf(ficresprob,"# Age");
     fprintf(ficresprobcov,"#One-step probabilities and covariance matrix\n");
     fprintf(ficresprobcov,"# Age");
     fprintf(ficresprobcor,"#One-step probabilities and correlation matrix\n");
     fprintf(ficresprobcov,"# Age");
   
   
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
       for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
         fprintf(ficresprob," p%1d-%1d (SE)",i,j);
         fprintf(ficresprobcov," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);
         fprintf(ficresprobcor," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);
       }  
    /* fprintf(ficresprob,"\n");
     fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n");
     fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n");
    */
    xp=vector(1,npar);
     dnewm=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
     doldm=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
     mu=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath), (int) bage, (int)fage);
     varpij=ma3x(1,nlstate*(nlstate+ndeath),1,nlstate*(nlstate+ndeath),(int) bage, (int) fage);
     first=1;
     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Routine varprob");
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> Computing and drawing one step probabilities with their confidence intervals</h4></li>\n");
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n");
   
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> <a href=\"%s\">Matrix of variance-covariance of pairs of step probabilities (drawings)</a></h4></li>\n",optionfilehtmcov);
     fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<h4>Matrix of variance-covariance of pairs of step probabilities</h4>\n\
     file %s<br>\n",optionfilehtmcov);
     fprintf(fichtmcov,"\nEllipsoids of confidence centered on point (p<inf>ij</inf>, p<inf>kl</inf>) are estimated\
   and drawn. It helps understanding how is the covariance between two incidences.\
    They are expressed in year<sup>-1</sup> in order to be less dependent of stepm.<br>\n");
     fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br> Contour plot corresponding to x'cov<sup>-1</sup>x = 4 (where x is the column vector (pij,pkl)) are drawn. \
   It can be understood this way: if pij and pkl where uncorrelated the (2x2) matrix of covariance \
   would have been (1/(var pij), 0 , 0, 1/(var pkl)), and the confidence interval would be 2 \
   standard deviations wide on each axis. <br>\
    Now, if both incidences are correlated (usual case) we diagonalised the inverse of the covariance matrix\
    and made the appropriate rotation to look at the uncorrelated principal directions.<br>\
   To be simple, these graphs help to understand the significativity of each parameter in relation to a second other one.<br> \n");
   
     cov[1]=1;
     tj=cptcoveff;
     if (cptcovn<1) {tj=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
     j1=0;
     for(t=1; t<=tj;t++){
       for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[t];i1++){ 
         j1++;
         if  (cptcovn>0) {
           fprintf(ficresprob, "\n#********** Variable "); 
           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprob, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
           fprintf(ficresprob, "**********\n#\n");
           fprintf(ficresprobcov, "\n#********** Variable "); 
           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprobcov, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
           fprintf(ficresprobcov, "**********\n#\n");
           
           fprintf(ficgp, "\n#********** Variable "); 
           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficgp, " V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
           fprintf(ficgp, "**********\n#\n");
           
           
           fprintf(fichtmcov, "\n<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">********** Variable "); 
           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(fichtm, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
           fprintf(fichtmcov, "**********\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
           
           fprintf(ficresprobcor, "\n#********** Variable ");    
           for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprobcor, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
           fprintf(ficresprobcor, "**********\n#");    
         }
         
         for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ 
           cov[2]=age;
           for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {
             cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[j1][Tvar[k]]];
           }
           for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];
           for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)
             cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];
           
           gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
           trgradg=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
           gp=vector(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
           gm=vector(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
       
           for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
             for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
               xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:(double)0);
             
             pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
             
             k=0;
             for(i=1; i<= (nlstate); i++){
               for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
                 k=k+1;
                 gp[k]=pmmij[i][j];
               }
             }
             
             for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
               xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:(double)0);
       
             pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
             k=0;
             for(i=1; i<=(nlstate); i++){
               for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
                 k=k+1;
                 gm[k]=pmmij[i][j];
               }
             }
        
             for(i=1; i<= (nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath); i++) 
               gradg[theta][i]=(gp[i]-gm[i])/(double)2./delti[theta];  
           }
   
           for(j=1; j<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)
             for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
               trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
           
           matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar,1,npar,matcov); 
           matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),gradg);
           free_vector(gp,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
           free_vector(gm,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
           free_matrix(trgradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
           free_matrix(gradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
   
           pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate);
           
           k=0;
           for(i=1; i<=(nlstate); i++){
             for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
               k=k+1;
               mu[k][(int) age]=pmmij[i][j];
             }
           }
           for(i=1;i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++)
             for(j=1;j<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)
               varpij[i][j][(int)age] = doldm[i][j];
   
           /*printf("\n%d ",(int)age);
             for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++){
             printf("%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));
             fprintf(ficlog,"%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));
             }*/
   
           fprintf(ficresprob,"\n%d ",(int)age);
           fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n%d ",(int)age);
           fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n%d ",(int)age);
   
           for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++)
             fprintf(ficresprob,"%11.3e (%11.3e) ",mu[i][(int) age],sqrt(varpij[i][i][(int)age]));
           for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++){
             fprintf(ficresprobcov,"%11.3e ",mu[i][(int) age]);
             fprintf(ficresprobcor,"%11.3e ",mu[i][(int) age]);
           }
           i=0;
           for (k=1; k<=(nlstate);k++){
             for (l=1; l<=(nlstate+ndeath);l++){ 
               i=i++;
               fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n%d %d-%d",(int)age,k,l);
               fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n%d %d-%d",(int)age,k,l);
               for (j=1; j<=i;j++){
                 fprintf(ficresprobcov," %11.3e",varpij[i][j][(int)age]);
                 fprintf(ficresprobcor," %11.3e",varpij[i][j][(int) age]/sqrt(varpij[i][i][(int) age])/sqrt(varpij[j][j][(int)age]));
               }
             }
           }/* end of loop for state */
         } /* end of loop for age */
   
         /* Confidence intervalle of pij  */
         /*
           fprintf(ficgp,"\nset noparametric;unset label");
           fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;unset log x; set xlabel \"Age\";set ylabel \"probability (year-1)\"");
           fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65");
           fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>Probability with  confidence intervals expressed in year<sup>-1</sup> :<a href=\"pijgr%s.png\">pijgr%s.png</A>, ",optionfilefiname,optionfilefiname);
           fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br><img src=\"pijgr%s.png\"> ",optionfilefiname);
           fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"pijgr%s.png\"",optionfilefiname);
           fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",k1,k2,xfilevarprob);
         */
   
         /* Drawing ellipsoids of confidence of two variables p(k1-l1,k2-l2)*/
         first1=1;
         for (k2=1; k2<=(nlstate);k2++){
           for (l2=1; l2<=(nlstate+ndeath);l2++){ 
             if(l2==k2) continue;
             j=(k2-1)*(nlstate+ndeath)+l2;
             for (k1=1; k1<=(nlstate);k1++){
               for (l1=1; l1<=(nlstate+ndeath);l1++){ 
                 if(l1==k1) continue;
                 i=(k1-1)*(nlstate+ndeath)+l1;
                 if(i<=j) continue;
                 for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ 
                   if ((int)age %5==0){
                     v1=varpij[i][i][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
                     v2=varpij[j][j][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
                     cv12=varpij[i][j][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
                     mu1=mu[i][(int) age]/stepm*YEARM ;
                     mu2=mu[j][(int) age]/stepm*YEARM;
                     c12=cv12/sqrt(v1*v2);
                     /* Computing eigen value of matrix of covariance */
                     lc1=((v1+v2)+sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;
                     lc2=((v1+v2)-sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;
                     /* Eigen vectors */
                     v11=(1./sqrt(1+(v1-lc1)*(v1-lc1)/cv12/cv12));
                     /*v21=sqrt(1.-v11*v11); *//* error */
                     v21=(lc1-v1)/cv12*v11;
                     v12=-v21;
                     v22=v11;
                     tnalp=v21/v11;
                     if(first1==1){
                       first1=0;
                       printf("%d %d%d-%d%d mu %.4e %.4e Var %.4e %.4e cor %.3f cov %.4e Eig %.3e %.3e 1stv %.3f %.3f tang %.3f\nOthers in log...\n",(int) age,k1,l1,k2,l2,mu1,mu2,v1,v2,c12,cv12,lc1,lc2,v11,v21,tnalp);
                     }
                     fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d%d-%d%d mu %.4e %.4e Var %.4e %.4e cor %.3f cov %.4e Eig %.3e %.3e 1stv %.3f %.3f tan %.3f\n",(int) age,k1,l1,k2,l2,mu1,mu2,v1,v2,c12,cv12,lc1,lc2,v11,v21,tnalp);
                     /*printf(fignu*/
                     /* mu1+ v11*lc1*cost + v12*lc2*sin(t) */
                     /* mu2+ v21*lc1*cost + v22*lc2*sin(t) */
                     if(first==1){
                       first=0;
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset parametric;unset label");
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;set log x; set xlabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\";set ylabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\"",k1,l1,k2,l2);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65");
                       fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br>Ellipsoids of confidence cov(p%1d%1d,p%1d%1d) expressed in year<sup>-1</sup>\
    :<a href=\"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\">\
   %s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png</A>, ",k1,l1,k2,l2,\
                               subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2,\
                               subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
                       fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br><img src=\"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\"> ",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
                       fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br> Correlation at age %d (%.3f),",(int) age, c12);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\"",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu1,mu2);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k1,l1,k2,l2);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot [-pi:pi] %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not",\
                               mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(lc2),\
                               mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v22,sqrt(lc2));
                     }else{
                       first=0;
                       fprintf(fichtmcov," %d (%.3f),",(int) age, c12);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k1,l1,k2,l2);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu1,mu2);
                       fprintf(ficgp,"\nreplot %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not",\
                               mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(lc2),\
                               mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v22,sqrt(lc2));
                     }/* if first */
                   } /* age mod 5 */
                 } /* end loop age */
                 fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\";replot;",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
                 first=1;
               } /*l12 */
             } /* k12 */
           } /*l1 */
         }/* k1 */
       } /* loop covariates */
     }
     free_ma3x(varpij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) bage, (int)fage);
     free_matrix(mu,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),(int) bage, (int)fage);
     free_vector(xp,1,npar);
     fclose(ficresprob);
     fclose(ficresprobcov);
     fclose(ficresprobcor);
     fflush(ficgp);
     fflush(fichtmcov);
   }
   
   
   /******************* Printing html file ***********/
   void printinghtml(char fileres[], char title[], char datafile[], int firstpass, \
                     int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[],\
                     int imx,int jmin, int jmax, double jmeanint,char rfileres[],\
                     int popforecast, int estepm ,\
                     double jprev1, double mprev1,double anprev1, \
                     double jprev2, double mprev2,double anprev2){
     int jj1, k1, i1, cpt;
   
      fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><h4>Result files (first order: no variance)</h4>\n \
    - Observed prevalence in each state (during the period defined between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n ",
              jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,subdirf2(fileres,"p"),subdirf2(fileres,"p"));
      fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Estimated transition probabilities over %d (stepm) months: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n ",
              stepm,subdirf2(fileres,"pij"),subdirf2(fileres,"pij"));
      fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Stable prevalence in each health state: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
              subdirf2(fileres,"pl"),subdirf2(fileres,"pl"));
      fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Life expectancies by age and initial health status (estepm=%2d months): \
      <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n</li>",
              estepm,subdirf2(fileres,"e"),subdirf2(fileres,"e"));
   
   fprintf(fichtm," \n<ul><li><b>Graphs</b></li><p>");
   
    m=cptcoveff;
    if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
   
    jj1=0;
    for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){
      for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
        jj1++;
        if (cptcovn > 0) {
          fprintf(fichtm,"<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">************ Results for covariates");
          for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++) 
            fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtab[jj1][cpt]]);
          fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
        }
        /* Pij */
        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i, %d (stepm) months before: %s%d1.png<br> \
   <img src=\"%s%d1.png\">",stepm,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1);     
        /* Quasi-incidences */
        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i %d (stepm) months\
    before but expressed in per year i.e. quasi incidences if stepm is small and probabilities too: %s%d2.png<br> \
   <img src=\"%s%d2.png\">",stepm,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1); 
          /* Stable prevalence in each health state */
          for(cpt=1; cpt<nlstate;cpt++){
            fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Stable prevalence in each health state : p%s%d%d.png<br> \
   <img src=\"%s%d%d.png\">",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,jj1);
          }
        for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
           fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Health life expectancies by age and initial health state (%d): %s%d%d.png <br> \
   <img src=\"%s%d%d.png\">",cpt,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,jj1);
        }
      } /* end i1 */
    }/* End k1 */
    fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
   
   
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
   \n<br><li><h4> Result files (second order: variances)</h4>\n\
    - Parameter file with estimated parameters and covariance matrix: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n", rfileres,rfileres);
   
    fprintf(fichtm," - Variance of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
            subdirf2(fileres,"prob"),subdirf2(fileres,"prob"));
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Variance-covariance of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
            subdirf2(fileres,"probcov"),subdirf2(fileres,"probcov"));
   
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
            subdirf2(fileres,"probcor"),subdirf2(fileres,"probcor"));
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Variances and covariances of life expectancies by age and initial health status (estepm=%d months): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n",
            estepm, subdirf2(fileres,"v"),subdirf2(fileres,"v"));
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Health expectancies with their variances (no covariance): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
            subdirf2(fileres,"t"),subdirf2(fileres,"t"));
    fprintf(fichtm,"\
    - Standard deviation of stable prevalences: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",\
            subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"));
   
   /*  if(popforecast==1) fprintf(fichtm,"\n */
   /*  - Prevalences forecasting: <a href=\"f%s\">f%s</a> <br>\n */
   /*  - Population forecasting (if popforecast=1): <a href=\"pop%s\">pop%s</a> <br>\n */
   /*      <br>",fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres); */
   /*  else  */
   /*    fprintf(fichtm,"\n No population forecast: popforecast = %d (instead of 1) or stepm = %d (instead of 1) or model=%s (instead of .)<br><br></li>\n",popforecast, stepm, model); */
    fflush(fichtm);
    fprintf(fichtm," <ul><li><b>Graphs</b></li><p>");
   
    m=cptcoveff;
    if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
   
    jj1=0;
    for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){
      for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
        jj1++;
        if (cptcovn > 0) {
          fprintf(fichtm,"<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">************ Results for covariates");
          for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++) 
            fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtab[jj1][cpt]]);
          fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
        }
        for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
          fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Observed (cross-sectional) and period (incidence based) \
   prevalence (with 95%% confidence interval) in state (%d): %s%d%d.png <br>\
   <img src=\"%s%d%d.png\">",cpt,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,jj1);  
        }
        fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Total life expectancy by age and \
   health expectancies in states (1) and (2): %s%d.png<br>\
   <img src=\"%s%d.png\">",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),jj1);
      } /* end i1 */
    }/* End k1 */
    fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
    fflush(fichtm);
   }
   
   /******************* Gnuplot file **************/
   void printinggnuplot(char fileres[], char optionfilefiname[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double fage , char pathc[], double p[]){
   
     char dirfileres[132],optfileres[132];
     int m,cpt,k1,i,k,j,jk,k2,k3,ij,l;
     int ng;
   /*   if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"a"))==NULL) { */
   /*     printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot); */
   /*     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot); */
   /*   } */
   
     /*#ifdef windows */
     fprintf(ficgp,"cd \"%s\" \n",pathc);
       /*#endif */
     m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
   
     strcpy(dirfileres,optionfilefiname);
     strcpy(optfileres,"vpl");
    /* 1eme*/
     for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {
      for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {
        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,k1);
        fprintf(ficgp,"\n#set out \"v%s%d%d.png\" \n",optionfilefiname,cpt,k1);
        fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \n\
   set ylabel \"Probability\" \n\
   set ter png small\n\
   set size 0.65,0.65\n\
   plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",ageminpar,fage,subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1);
   
        for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
          if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
          else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
        }
        fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"Stable prevalence\" w l 0,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+1.96*$3) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1);
        for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
          if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
          else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
        } 
        fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"95\%% CI\" w l 1,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-1.96*$3) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1); 
        for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
          if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
          else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
        }  
        fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 1,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d) t\"Observed prevalence \" w l 2",subdirf2(fileres,"p"),k1-1,k1-1,2+4*(cpt-1));
      }
     }
     /*2 eme*/
     
     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { 
       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),k1);
       fprintf(ficgp,"set ylabel \"Years\" \nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nplot [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,fage);
       
       for (i=1; i<= nlstate+1 ; i ++) {
         k=2*i;
         fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
         for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
           if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
           else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
         }   
         if (i== 1) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"TLE\" w l ,");
         else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"LE in state (%d)\" w l ,",i-1);
         fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-$3*2) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
         for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
           if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
           else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
         }   
         fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");
         fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+$3*2) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
         for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
           if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
           else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
         }   
         if (i== (nlstate+1)) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0");
         else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");
       }
     }
     
     /*3eme*/
     
     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { 
       for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {
         k=2+nlstate*(2*cpt-2);
         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,k1);
         fprintf(ficgp,"set ter png small\n\
   set size 0.65,0.65\n\
   plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d1\" w l",ageminpar,fage,subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k,cpt);
         /*fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d-2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);
           for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");
           fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);
           fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d+2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);
           for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");
           fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);
           
         */
         for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {
           fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k+2*i,cpt,i+1);
           
         } 
       }
     }
     
     /* CV preval stable (period) */
     for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { 
       for (cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate ; cpt ++) {
         k=3;
         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,k1);
         fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \n\
   set ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\n\
   unset log y\n\
   plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",ageminpar,agemaxpar,subdirf2(fileres,"pij"),k1,k+cpt+1,k+1);
         
         for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++)
           fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+i+1);
         fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l",cpt,cpt+1);
         
         l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;
         fprintf(ficgp,",\"%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",subdirf2(fileres,"pij"),k1,l+cpt+1,l+1);
         for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {
           l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;
           fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",l+i+1);
         }
         fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l\n",cpt+1,cpt+1);   
       } 
     }  
     
     /* proba elementaires */
     for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
       for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
         if (k != i) {
           for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
             fprintf(ficgp,"p%d=%f ",jk,p[jk]);
             jk++; 
             fprintf(ficgp,"\n");
           }
         }
       }
      }
   
      for(ng=1; ng<=2;ng++){ /* Number of graphics: first is probabilities second is incidence per year*/
        for(jk=1; jk <=m; jk++) {
          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jk,ng); 
          if (ng==2)
            fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ylabel \"Quasi-incidence per year\"\n");
          else
            fprintf(ficgp,"\nset title \"Probability\"\n");
          fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nset log y\nplot  [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,agemaxpar);
          i=1;
          for(k2=1; k2<=nlstate; k2++) {
            k3=i;
            for(k=1; k<=(nlstate+ndeath); k++) {
              if (k != k2){
                if(ng==2)
                  fprintf(ficgp," %f*exp(p%d+p%d*x",YEARM/stepm,i,i+1);
                else
                  fprintf(ficgp," exp(p%d+p%d*x",i,i+1);
                ij=1;
                for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++) {
                  if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {
                    fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);
                    ij++;
                  }
                  else
                    fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);
                }
                fprintf(ficgp,")/(1");
                
                for(k1=1; k1 <=nlstate; k1++){   
                  fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1);
                  ij=1;
                  for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
                    if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {
                      fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);
                      ij++;
                    }
                    else
                      fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);
                  }
                  fprintf(ficgp,")");
                }
                fprintf(ficgp,") t \"p%d%d\" ", k2,k);
                if ((k+k2)!= (nlstate*2+ndeath)) fprintf(ficgp,",");
                i=i+ncovmodel;
              }
            } /* end k */
          } /* end k2 */
        } /* end jk */
      } /* end ng */
      fflush(ficgp); 
   }  /* end gnuplot */
   
   
   /*************** Moving average **************/
   int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav){
   
     int i, cpt, cptcod;
     int modcovmax =1;
     int mobilavrange, mob;
     double age;
   
     modcovmax=2*cptcoveff;/* Max number of modalities. We suppose 
                              a covariate has 2 modalities */
     if (cptcovn<1) modcovmax=1; /* At least 1 pass */
   
     if(mobilav==1||mobilav ==3 ||mobilav==5 ||mobilav== 7){
       if(mobilav==1) mobilavrange=5; /* default */
       else mobilavrange=mobilav;
       for (age=bage; age<=fage; age++)
         for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
           for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=modcovmax;cptcod++)
             mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
       /* We keep the original values on the extreme ages bage, fage and for 
          fage+1 and bage-1 we use a 3 terms moving average; for fage+2 bage+2
          we use a 5 terms etc. until the borders are no more concerned. 
       */ 
       for (mob=3;mob <=mobilavrange;mob=mob+2){
         for (age=bage+(mob-1)/2; age<=fage-(mob-1)/2; age++){
           for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
             for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=modcovmax;cptcod++){
               mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] =probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
                 for (cpt=1;cpt<=(mob-1)/2;cpt++){
                   mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age-cpt][i][cptcod];
                   mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age+cpt][i][cptcod];
                 }
               mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]/mob;
             }
           }
         }/* end age */
       }/* end mob */
     }else return -1;
     return 0;
   }/* End movingaverage */
   
   
   /************** Forecasting ******************/
   prevforecast(char fileres[], double anproj1, double mproj1, double jproj1, double ageminpar, double agemax, double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double bage, double fage, int firstpass, int lastpass, double anproj2, double p[], int cptcoveff){
     /* proj1, year, month, day of starting projection 
        agemin, agemax range of age
        dateprev1 dateprev2 range of dates during which prevalence is computed
        anproj2 year of en of projection (same day and month as proj1).
     */
     int yearp, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j, k, c, cptcod, i, h, i1;
     int *popage;
     double agec; /* generic age */
     double agelim, ppij, yp,yp1,yp2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean;
     double *popeffectif,*popcount;
     double ***p3mat;
     double ***mobaverage;
     char fileresf[FILENAMELENGTH];
   
     agelim=AGESUP;
     prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
    
     strcpy(fileresf,"f"); 
     strcat(fileresf,fileres);
     if((ficresf=fopen(fileresf,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);
     }
     printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);
   
     if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
   
     if (mobilav!=0) {
       mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
       if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
         fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
         printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
       }
     }
   
     stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
     if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;
     if(estepm < stepm){
       printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
     }
     else  hstepm=estepm;   
   
     hstepm=hstepm/stepm; 
     yp1=modf(dateintmean,&yp);/* extracts integral of datemean in yp  and
                                  fractional in yp1 */
     anprojmean=yp;
     yp2=modf((yp1*12),&yp);
     mprojmean=yp;
     yp1=modf((yp2*30.5),&yp);
     jprojmean=yp;
     if(jprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;
     if(mprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;
   
     i1=cptcoveff;
     if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
     
     fprintf(ficresf,"# Mean day of interviews %.lf/%.lf/%.lf (%.2f) between %.2f and %.2f \n",jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean,dateintmean,dateprev1,dateprev2); 
     
     fprintf(ficresf,"#****** Routine prevforecast **\n");
   
   /*            if (h==(int)(YEARM*yearp)){ */
     for(cptcov=1, k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
       for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){
         k=k+1;
         fprintf(ficresf,"\n#******");
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
           fprintf(ficresf," V%d=%d, hpijx=probability over h years, hp.jx is weighted by observed prev ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
         }
         fprintf(ficresf,"******\n");
         fprintf(ficresf,"# Covariate valuofcovar yearproj age");
         for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){ 
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)              
             fprintf(ficresf," p%d%d",i,j);
           fprintf(ficresf," p.%d",j);
         }
         for (yearp=0; yearp<=(anproj2-anproj1);yearp +=stepsize) { 
           fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
           fprintf(ficresf,"\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1+yearp);   
   
           for (agec=fage; agec>=(ageminpar-1); agec--){ 
             nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agec)*YEARM/stepm); 
             nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; 
             p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
             oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
             hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agec,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
           
             for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
               if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm ==yearp) {
                 fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
                 for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
                   fprintf(ficresf,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
                 fprintf(ficresf,"%.f %.f ",anproj1+yearp,agec+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
               } 
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
                 ppij=0.;
                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {
                   if (mobilav==1) 
                     ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agec][i][cptcod];
                   else {
                     ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agec)][i][cptcod];
                   }
                   if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm== yearp) {
                     fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", p3mat[i][j][h]);
                   }
                 } /* end i */
                 if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm==yearp) {
                   fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", ppij);
                 }
               }/* end j */
             } /* end h */
             free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           } /* end agec */
         } /* end yearp */
       } /* end cptcod */
     } /* end  cptcov */
          
     if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
   
     fclose(ficresf);
   }
   
   /************** Forecasting *****not tested NB*************/
   populforecast(char fileres[], double anpyram,double mpyram,double jpyram,double ageminpar, double agemax,double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double agedeb, double fage, int popforecast, char popfile[], double anpyram1,double p[], int i2){
     
     int cpt, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j,k,c, cptcod, i,h;
     int *popage;
     double calagedatem, agelim, kk1, kk2;
     double *popeffectif,*popcount;
     double ***p3mat,***tabpop,***tabpopprev;
     double ***mobaverage;
     char filerespop[FILENAMELENGTH];
   
     tabpop= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     tabpopprev= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     agelim=AGESUP;
     calagedatem=(anpyram+mpyram/12.+jpyram/365.-dateintmean)*YEARM;
     
     prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
     
     
     strcpy(filerespop,"pop"); 
     strcat(filerespop,fileres);
     if((ficrespop=fopen(filerespop,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", filerespop);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", filerespop);
     }
     printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", filerespop);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", filerespop);
   
     if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
   
     if (mobilav!=0) {
       mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
       if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
         fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
         printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
       }
     }
   
     stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
     if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;
     
     agelim=AGESUP;
     
     hstepm=1;
     hstepm=hstepm/stepm; 
     
     if (popforecast==1) {
       if((ficpop=fopen(popfile,"r"))==NULL) {
         printf("Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);exit(0);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);exit(0);
       } 
       popage=ivector(0,AGESUP);
       popeffectif=vector(0,AGESUP);
       popcount=vector(0,AGESUP);
       
       i=1;   
       while ((c=fscanf(ficpop,"%d %lf\n",&popage[i],&popcount[i])) != EOF) i=i+1;
      
       imx=i;
       for (i=1; i<imx;i++) popeffectif[popage[i]]=popcount[i];
     }
   
     for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i2;cptcov++){
      for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){
         k=k+1;
         fprintf(ficrespop,"\n#******");
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
           fprintf(ficrespop," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
         }
         fprintf(ficrespop,"******\n");
         fprintf(ficrespop,"# Age");
         for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) fprintf(ficrespop," P.%d",j);
         if (popforecast==1)  fprintf(ficrespop," [Population]");
         
         for (cpt=0; cpt<=0;cpt++) { 
           fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);   
           
           for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedatem %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedatem %12)/12.); agedeb--){ 
             nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); 
             nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; 
             
             p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
             oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
             hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
           
             for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
               if (h==(int) (calagedatem+YEARM*cpt)) {
                 fprintf(ficrespop,"\n %3.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
               } 
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
                 kk1=0.;kk2=0;
                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {              
                   if (mobilav==1) 
                     kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];
                   else {
                     kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agedeb+1)][i][cptcod];
                   }
                 }
                 if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)){
                   tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod]=kk1;
                     /*fprintf(ficrespop," %.3f", kk1);
                       if (popforecast==1) fprintf(ficrespop," [%.f]", kk1*popeffectif[(int)agedeb+1]);*/
                 }
               }
               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
                 kk1=0.;
                   for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
                     kk1= kk1+tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod]; 
                   }
                     tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]=tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]/kk1*popeffectif[(int)(agedeb+(calagedatem+12*cpt)*hstepm/YEARM*stepm-1)];
               }
   
               if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)) for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++) 
                 fprintf(ficrespop," %15.2f",tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb+1)][j][cptcod]);
             }
             free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           }
         }
    
     /******/
   
         for (cpt=1; cpt<=(anpyram1-anpyram);cpt++) { 
           fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);   
           for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedatem %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedatem %12)/12.); agedeb--){ 
             nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); 
             nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; 
             
             p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
             oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
             hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
             for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
               if (h==(int) (calagedatem+YEARM*cpt)) {
                 fprintf(ficresf,"\n %3.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
               } 
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
                 kk1=0.;kk2=0;
                 for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {              
                   kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*tabpopprev[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];    
                 }
                 if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)) fprintf(ficresf," %15.2f", kk1);        
               }
             }
             free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           }
         }
      } 
     }
    
     if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
   
     if (popforecast==1) {
       free_ivector(popage,0,AGESUP);
       free_vector(popeffectif,0,AGESUP);
       free_vector(popcount,0,AGESUP);
     }
     free_ma3x(tabpop,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     free_ma3x(tabpopprev,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     fclose(ficrespop);
   } /* End of popforecast */
   
   int fileappend(FILE *fichier, char *optionfich)
   {
     if((fichier=fopen(optionfich,"a"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with file: %s\n", optionfich);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with file: %s\n", optionfich);
       return (0);
     }
     fflush(fichier);
     return (1);
   }
   
   
   /**************** function prwizard **********************/
   void prwizard(int ncovmodel, int nlstate, int ndeath,  char model[], FILE *ficparo)
   {
   
     /* Wizard to print covariance matrix template */
   
     char ca[32], cb[32], cc[32];
     int i,j, k, l, li, lj, lk, ll, jj, npar, itimes;
     int numlinepar;
   
     printf("# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
     fprintf(ficparo,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
     for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
       jj=0;
       for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
         if(j==i) continue;
         jj++;
         /*ca[0]= k+'a'-1;ca[1]='\0';*/
         printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
         fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i,j);
         for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
           /*        printf(" %lf",param[i][j][k]); */
           /*        fprintf(ficparo," %lf",param[i][j][k]); */
           printf(" 0.");
           fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
         }
         printf("\n");
         fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
       }
     }
     printf("# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
     fprintf(ficparo,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
     npar= (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel; /* Number of parameters*/ 
     for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
       jj=0;
       for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
         if(j==i) continue;
         jj++;
         fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i,j);
         printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
         fflush(stdout);
         for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
           /*      printf(" %le",delti3[i][j][k]); */
           /*      fprintf(ficparo," %le",delti3[i][j][k]); */
           printf(" 0.");
           fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
         }
         numlinepar++;
         printf("\n");
         fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
       }
     }
     printf("# Covariance matrix\n");
   /* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */
   /* # 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n\ */
   /* # 131 Cov(a13,a12) Cov(a13,b12, Var(a13)\n\ */
   /* # 132 Cov(b13,a12) Cov(b13,b12, Cov(b13,a13) Var(b13)\n\ */
   /* # 212 Cov(a21,a12) Cov(a21,b12, Cov(a21,a13) Cov(a21,b13) Var(a21)\n\ */
   /* # 212 Cov(b21,a12) Cov(b21,b12, Cov(b21,a13) Cov(b21,b13) Cov(b21,a21) Var(b21)\n\ */
   /* # 232 Cov(a23,a12) Cov(a23,b12, Cov(a23,a13) Cov(a23,b13) Cov(a23,a21) Cov(a23,b21) Var(a23)\n\ */
   /* # 232 Cov(b23,a12) Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n" */
     fflush(stdout);
     fprintf(ficparo,"# Covariance matrix\n");
     /* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */
     /* # 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n\ */
     /* #   ...\n\ */
     /* # 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n" */
     
     for(itimes=1;itimes<=2;itimes++){
       jj=0;
       for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
         for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
           if(j==i) continue;
           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
             jj++;
             ca[0]= k+'a'-1;ca[1]='\0';
             if(itimes==1){
               printf("#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               fprintf(ficparo,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
             }else{
               printf("%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               /*  printf(" %.5le",matcov[i][j]); */
             }
             ll=0;
             for(li=1;li <=nlstate; li++){
               for(lj=1;lj <=nlstate+ndeath; lj++){
                 if(lj==li) continue;
                 for(lk=1;lk<=ncovmodel;lk++){
                   ll++;
                   if(ll<=jj){
                     cb[0]= lk +'a'-1;cb[1]='\0';
                     if(ll<jj){
                       if(itimes==1){
                         printf(" Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                         fprintf(ficparo," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                       }else{
                         printf(" 0.");
                         fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
                       }
                     }else{
                       if(itimes==1){
                         printf(" Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                         fprintf(ficparo," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                       }else{
                         printf(" 0.");
                         fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
                       }
                     }
                   }
                 } /* end lk */
               } /* end lj */
             } /* end li */
             printf("\n");
             fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
             numlinepar++;
           } /* end k*/
         } /*end j */
       } /* end i */
     } /* end itimes */
   
   } /* end of prwizard */
   
   
   /***********************************************/
   /**************** Main Program *****************/
   /***********************************************/
   
   int main(int argc, char *argv[])
   {
     int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav);
     int i,j, k, n=MAXN,iter,m,size=100,cptcode, cptcod;
     int jj, ll, li, lj, lk, imk;
     int numlinepar=0; /* Current linenumber of parameter file */
     int itimes;
   
     char ca[32], cb[32], cc[32];
     /*  FILE *fichtm; *//* Html File */
     /* FILE *ficgp;*/ /*Gnuplot File */
     double agedeb, agefin,hf;
     double ageminpar=1.e20,agemin=1.e20, agemaxpar=-1.e20, agemax=-1.e20;
   
     double fret;
     double **xi,tmp,delta;
   
     double dum; /* Dummy variable */
     double ***p3mat;
     double ***mobaverage;
     int *indx;
     char line[MAXLINE], linepar[MAXLINE];
     char path[MAXLINE],pathc[MAXLINE],pathcd[MAXLINE],pathtot[MAXLINE],model[MAXLINE];
     char pathr[MAXLINE]; 
     int firstobs=1, lastobs=10;
     int sdeb, sfin; /* Status at beginning and end */
     int c,  h , cpt,l;
     int ju,jl, mi;
     int i1,j1, k1,k2,k3,jk,aa,bb, stepsize, ij;
     int jnais,jdc,jint4,jint1,jint2,jint3,**outcome,*tab; 
     int mobilavproj=0 , prevfcast=0 ; /* moving average of prev, If prevfcast=1 prevalence projection */
     int mobilav=0,popforecast=0;
     int hstepm, nhstepm;
     double jprev1=1, mprev1=1,anprev1=2000,jprev2=1, mprev2=1,anprev2=2000;
     double jpyram=1, mpyram=1,anpyram=2000,jpyram1=1, mpyram1=1,anpyram1=2000;
   
     double bage, fage, age, agelim, agebase;
     double ftolpl=FTOL;
     double **prlim;
     double *severity;
     double ***param; /* Matrix of parameters */
     double  *p;
     double **matcov; /* Matrix of covariance */
     double ***delti3; /* Scale */
     double *delti; /* Scale */
     double ***eij, ***vareij;
     double **varpl; /* Variances of prevalence limits by age */
     double *epj, vepp;
     double kk1, kk2;
     double dateprev1, dateprev2,jproj1=1,mproj1=1,anproj1=2000,jproj2=1,mproj2=1,anproj2=2000;
   
     char *alph[]={"a","a","b","c","d","e"}, str[4];
   
   
     char z[1]="c", occ;
   
     char stra[80], strb[80], strc[80], strd[80],stre[80],modelsav[80];
     char strstart[80], *strt, strtend[80];
     char *stratrunc;
     int lstra;
   
     long total_usecs;
    
   /*   setlocale (LC_ALL, ""); */
   /*   bindtextdomain (PACKAGE, LOCALEDIR); */
   /*   textdomain (PACKAGE); */
   /*   setlocale (LC_CTYPE, ""); */
   /*   setlocale (LC_MESSAGES, ""); */
   
     /*   gettimeofday(&start_time, (struct timezone*)0); */ /* at first time */
     (void) gettimeofday(&start_time,&tzp);
     curr_time=start_time;
     tm = *localtime(&start_time.tv_sec);
     tmg = *gmtime(&start_time.tv_sec);
     strcpy(strstart,asctime(&tm));
   
   /*  printf("Localtime (at start)=%s",strstart); */
   /*  tp.tv_sec = tp.tv_sec +86400; */
   /*  tm = *localtime(&start_time.tv_sec); */
   /*   tmg.tm_year=tmg.tm_year +dsign*dyear; */
   /*   tmg.tm_mon=tmg.tm_mon +dsign*dmonth; */
   /*   tmg.tm_hour=tmg.tm_hour + 1; */
   /*   tp.tv_sec = mktime(&tmg); */
   /*   strt=asctime(&tmg); */
   /*   printf("Time(after) =%s",strstart);  */
   /*  (void) time (&time_value);
   *  printf("time=%d,t-=%d\n",time_value,time_value-86400);
   *  tm = *localtime(&time_value);
   *  strstart=asctime(&tm);
   *  printf("tim_value=%d,asctime=%s\n",time_value,strstart); 
   */
   
     nberr=0; /* Number of errors and warnings */
     nbwarn=0;
     getcwd(pathcd, size);
   
     printf("\n%s\n%s",version,fullversion);
     if(argc <=1){
       printf("\nEnter the parameter file name: ");
       scanf("%s",pathtot);
     }
     else{
       strcpy(pathtot,argv[1]);
     }
     /*if(getcwd(pathcd, MAXLINE)!= NULL)printf ("Error pathcd\n");*/
     /*cygwin_split_path(pathtot,path,optionfile);
       printf("pathtot=%s, path=%s, optionfile=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile);*/
     /* cutv(path,optionfile,pathtot,'\\');*/
   
     split(pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
     printf("pathtot=%s,\npath=%s,\noptionfile=%s \noptionfilext=%s \noptionfilefiname=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
     chdir(path);
     strcpy(command,"mkdir ");
     strcat(command,optionfilefiname);
     if((outcmd=system(command)) != 0){
       printf("Problem creating directory or it already exists %s%s, err=%d\n",path,optionfilefiname,outcmd);
       /* fprintf(ficlog,"Problem creating directory %s%s\n",path,optionfilefiname); */
       /* fclose(ficlog); */
   /*     exit(1); */
     }
   /*   if((imk=mkdir(optionfilefiname))<0){ */
   /*     perror("mkdir"); */
   /*   } */
   
     /*-------- arguments in the command line --------*/
   
     /* Log file */
     strcat(filelog, optionfilefiname);
     strcat(filelog,".log");    /* */
     if((ficlog=fopen(filelog,"w"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with logfile %s\n",filelog);
       goto end;
     }
     fprintf(ficlog,"Log filename:%s\n",filelog);
     fprintf(ficlog,"\n%s\n%s",version,fullversion);
     fprintf(ficlog,"\nEnter the parameter file name: ");
     fprintf(ficlog,"pathtot=%s\n\
    path=%s \n\
    optionfile=%s\n\
    optionfilext=%s\n\
    optionfilefiname=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
   
     printf("Local time (at start):%s",strstart);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Local time (at start): %s",strstart);
     fflush(ficlog);
   /*   (void) gettimeofday(&curr_time,&tzp); */
   /*   printf("Elapsed time %d\n", asc_diff_time(curr_time.tv_sec-start_time.tv_sec,tmpout)); */
   
     /* */
     strcpy(fileres,"r");
     strcat(fileres, optionfilefiname);
     strcat(fileres,".txt");    /* Other files have txt extension */
   
     /*---------arguments file --------*/
   
     if((ficpar=fopen(optionfile,"r"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with optionfile %s\n",optionfile);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with optionfile %s\n",optionfile);
       fflush(ficlog);
       goto end;
     }
   
   
   
     strcpy(filereso,"o");
     strcat(filereso,fileres);
     if((ficparo=fopen(filereso,"w"))==NULL) { /* opened on subdirectory */
       printf("Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);
       fflush(ficlog);
       goto end;
     }
   
     /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
     numlinepar=0;
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       numlinepar++;
       puts(line);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
       fputs(line,ficlog);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
   
     fscanf(ficpar,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%lf stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d model=%s\n",title, datafile, &lastobs, &firstpass,&lastpass,&ftol, &stepm, &ncovcol, &nlstate,&ndeath, &maxwav, &mle, &weightopt,model);
     numlinepar++;
     printf("title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate,ndeath, maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
     fprintf(ficparo,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
     fprintf(ficlog,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
     fflush(ficlog);
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       numlinepar++;
       puts(line);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
       fputs(line,ficlog);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
   
      
     covar=matrix(0,NCOVMAX,1,n); 
     cptcovn=0; /*Number of covariates, i.e. number of '+' in model statement*/
     if (strlen(model)>1) cptcovn=nbocc(model,'+')+1;
   
     ncovmodel=2+cptcovn; /*Number of variables = cptcovn + intercept + age */
     nvar=ncovmodel-1; /* Suppressing age as a basic covariate */
    
     if(mle==-1){ /* Print a wizard for help writing covariance matrix */
       prwizard(ncovmodel, nlstate, ndeath, model, ficparo);
       printf(" You choose mle=-1, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
       fprintf(ficlog," You choose mle=-1, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
       fclose (ficparo);
       fclose (ficlog);
       exit(0);
     }
     /* Read guess parameters */
     /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       numlinepar++;
       puts(line);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
       fputs(line,ficlog);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
   
     param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
     for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
       j=0;
       for(jj=1; jj <=nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
         if(jj==i) continue;
         j++;
         fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);
         if ((i1 != i) && (j1 != j)){
           printf("Error in line parameters number %d, %1d%1d instead of %1d%1d \n",numlinepar, i,j, i1, j1);
           exit(1);
         }
         fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
         if(mle==1)
           printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
         fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i,j);
         for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
           fscanf(ficpar," %lf",&param[i][j][k]);
           if(mle==1){
             printf(" %lf",param[i][j][k]);
             fprintf(ficlog," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
           }
           else
             fprintf(ficlog," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
           fprintf(ficparo," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
         }
         fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
         numlinepar++;
         if(mle==1)
           printf("\n");
         fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
         fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
       }
     }  
     fflush(ficlog);
   
     npar= (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel; /* Number of parameters*/
   
     p=param[1][1];
     
     /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       numlinepar++;
       puts(line);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
       fputs(line,ficlog);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
   
     delti3= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
     /* delti=vector(1,npar); *//* Scale of each paramater (output from hesscov) */
     for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
       for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath-1; j++){
         fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);
         if ((i1-i)*(j1-j)!=0){
           printf("Error in line parameters number %d, %1d%1d instead of %1d%1d \n",numlinepar, i,j, i1, j1);
           exit(1);
         }
         printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
         fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
         fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
         for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
           fscanf(ficpar,"%le",&delti3[i][j][k]);
           printf(" %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
           fprintf(ficparo," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
           fprintf(ficlog," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
         }
         fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
         numlinepar++;
         printf("\n");
         fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
         fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
       }
     }
     fflush(ficlog);
   
     delti=delti3[1][1];
   
   
     /* free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel); */ /* Hasn't to to freed here otherwise delti is no more allocated */
     
     /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       numlinepar++;
       puts(line);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
       fputs(line,ficlog);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
     
     matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
     for(i=1; i <=npar; i++){
       fscanf(ficpar,"%s",&str);
       if(mle==1)
         printf("%s",str);
       fprintf(ficlog,"%s",str);
       fprintf(ficparo,"%s",str);
       for(j=1; j <=i; j++){
         fscanf(ficpar," %le",&matcov[i][j]);
         if(mle==1){
           printf(" %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
         }
         fprintf(ficlog," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
         fprintf(ficparo," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
       }
       fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
       numlinepar++;
       if(mle==1)
         printf("\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
       fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
     }
     for(i=1; i <=npar; i++)
       for(j=i+1;j<=npar;j++)
         matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];
      
     if(mle==1)
       printf("\n");
     fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
   
     fflush(ficlog);
   
     /*-------- Rewriting paramater file ----------*/
     strcpy(rfileres,"r");    /* "Rparameterfile */
     strcat(rfileres,optionfilefiname);    /* Parameter file first name*/
     strcat(rfileres,".");    /* */
     strcat(rfileres,optionfilext);    /* Other files have txt extension */
     if((ficres =fopen(rfileres,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", fileres);goto end;
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", fileres);goto end;
     }
     fprintf(ficres,"#%s\n",version);
       
     /*-------- data file ----------*/
     if((fic=fopen(datafile,"r"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with datafile: %s\n", datafile);goto end;
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with datafile: %s\n", datafile);goto end;
     }
   
     n= lastobs;
     severity = vector(1,maxwav);
     outcome=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);
     num=lvector(1,n);
     moisnais=vector(1,n);
     annais=vector(1,n);
     moisdc=vector(1,n);
     andc=vector(1,n);
     agedc=vector(1,n);
     cod=ivector(1,n);
     weight=vector(1,n);
     for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0; /* Equal weights, 1 by default */
     mint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);
     anint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);
     s=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);
     tab=ivector(1,NCOVMAX);
     ncodemax=ivector(1,8);
   
     i=1;
     while (fgets(line, MAXLINE, fic) != NULL)    {
       if ((i >= firstobs) && (i <=lastobs)) {
           
         for (j=maxwav;j>=1;j--){
           cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); s[j][i]=atoi(strb); 
           strcpy(line,stra);
           cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); anint[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
           cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); mint[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
         }
           
         cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); andc[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); moisdc[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
   
         cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); annais[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); moisnais[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
   
         cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); weight[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
         for (j=ncovcol;j>=1;j--){
           cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); covar[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
         } 
         lstra=strlen(stra);
         if(lstra > 9){ /* More than 2**32 or max of what printf can write with %ld */
           stratrunc = &(stra[lstra-9]);
           num[i]=atol(stratrunc);
         }
         else
           num[i]=atol(stra);
           
         /*if((s[2][i]==2) && (s[3][i]==-1)&&(s[4][i]==9)){
           printf("%ld %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]),weight[i], (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i])); ij=ij+1;}*/
   
         i=i+1;
       }
     }
     /* printf("ii=%d", ij);
        scanf("%d",i);*/
     imx=i-1; /* Number of individuals */
   
     /* for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
       if ((s[1][i]==3) && (s[2][i]==2)) s[2][i]=3;
       if ((s[2][i]==3) && (s[3][i]==2)) s[3][i]=3;
       if ((s[3][i]==3) && (s[4][i]==2)) s[4][i]=3;
       }*/
      /*  for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
        if (s[4][i]==9)  s[4][i]=-1; 
        printf("%ld %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]), (weight[i]), (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i]));}*/
     
    for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)
    
      /*if ((s[3][i]==3) ||  (s[4][i]==3)) weight[i]=0.08;
        else weight[i]=1;*/
   
     /* Calculation of the number of parameter from char model*/
     Tvar=ivector(1,15); /* stores the number n of the covariates in Vm+Vn at 1 and m at 2 */
     Tprod=ivector(1,15); 
     Tvaraff=ivector(1,15); 
     Tvard=imatrix(1,15,1,2);
     Tage=ivector(1,15);      
      
     if (strlen(model) >1){ /* If there is at least 1 covariate */
       j=0, j1=0, k1=1, k2=1;
       j=nbocc(model,'+'); /* j=Number of '+' */
       j1=nbocc(model,'*'); /* j1=Number of '*' */
       cptcovn=j+1; 
       cptcovprod=j1; /*Number of products */
       
       strcpy(modelsav,model); 
       if ((strcmp(model,"age")==0) || (strcmp(model,"age*age")==0)){
         printf("Error. Non available option model=%s ",model);
         fprintf(ficlog,"Error. Non available option model=%s ",model);
         goto end;
       }
       
       /* This loop fills the array Tvar from the string 'model'.*/
   
       for(i=(j+1); i>=1;i--){
         cutv(stra,strb,modelsav,'+'); /* keeps in strb after the last + */ 
         if (nbocc(modelsav,'+')==0) strcpy(strb,modelsav); /* and analyzes it */
         /*      printf("i=%d a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n",i, stra,strb,modelsav);*/
         /*scanf("%d",i);*/
         if (strchr(strb,'*')) {  /* Model includes a product */
           cutv(strd,strc,strb,'*'); /* strd*strc  Vm*Vn (if not *age)*/
           if (strcmp(strc,"age")==0) { /* Vn*age */
             cptcovprod--;
             cutv(strb,stre,strd,'V');
             Tvar[i]=atoi(stre); /* computes n in Vn and stores in Tvar*/
             cptcovage++;
               Tage[cptcovage]=i;
               /*printf("stre=%s ", stre);*/
           }
           else if (strcmp(strd,"age")==0) { /* or age*Vn */
             cptcovprod--;
             cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V');
             Tvar[i]=atoi(stre);
             cptcovage++;
             Tage[cptcovage]=i;
           }
           else {  /* Age is not in the model */
             cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V'); /* strc= Vn, stre is n*/
             Tvar[i]=ncovcol+k1;
             cutv(strb,strc,strd,'V'); /* strd was Vm, strc is m */
             Tprod[k1]=i;
             Tvard[k1][1]=atoi(strc); /* m*/
             Tvard[k1][2]=atoi(stre); /* n */
             Tvar[cptcovn+k2]=Tvard[k1][1];
             Tvar[cptcovn+k2+1]=Tvard[k1][2]; 
             for (k=1; k<=lastobs;k++) 
               covar[ncovcol+k1][k]=covar[atoi(stre)][k]*covar[atoi(strc)][k];
             k1++;
             k2=k2+2;
           }
         }
         else { /* no more sum */
           /*printf("d=%s c=%s b=%s\n", strd,strc,strb);*/
          /*  scanf("%d",i);*/
         cutv(strd,strc,strb,'V');
         Tvar[i]=atoi(strc);
         }
         strcpy(modelsav,stra);  
         /*printf("a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n", stra,strb,modelsav);
           scanf("%d",i);*/
       } /* end of loop + */
     } /* end model */
     
     /*The number n of Vn is stored in Tvar. cptcovage =number of age covariate. Tage gives the position of age. cptcovprod= number of products.
       If model=V1+V1*age then Tvar[1]=1 Tvar[2]=1 cptcovage=1 Tage[1]=2 cptcovprod=0*/
   
     /* printf("tvar1=%d tvar2=%d tvar3=%d cptcovage=%d Tage=%d",Tvar[1],Tvar[2],Tvar[3],cptcovage,Tage[1]);
     printf("cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);
     fprintf(ficlog,"cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);
   
     scanf("%d ",i);
     fclose(fic);*/
   
       /*  if(mle==1){*/
     if (weightopt != 1) { /* Maximisation without weights*/
       for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0;
     }
       /*-calculation of age at interview from date of interview and age at death -*/
     agev=matrix(1,maxwav,1,imx);
   
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
       for(m=2; (m<= maxwav); m++) {
         if (((int)mint[m][i]== 99) && (s[m][i] <= nlstate)){
           anint[m][i]=9999;
           s[m][i]=-1;
         }
         if((int)moisdc[i]==99 && (int)andc[i]==9999 && s[m][i]>nlstate){
           nberr++;
           printf("Error! Date of death (month %2d and year %4d) of individual %ld on line %d was unknown, you must set an arbitrary year of death or he/she is skipped and results are biased\n",(int)moisdc[i],(int)andc[i],num[i],i);
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Date of death (month %2d and year %4d) of individual %ld on line %d was unknown, you must set an arbitrary year of death or he/she is skipped and results are biased\n",(int)moisdc[i],(int)andc[i],num[i],i);
           s[m][i]=-1;
         }
         if((int)moisdc[i]==99 && (int)andc[i]!=9999 && s[m][i]>nlstate){
           nberr++;
           printf("Error! Month of death of individual %ld on line %d was unknown %2d, you should set it otherwise the information on the death is skipped and results are biased.\n",num[i],i,(int)moisdc[i]); 
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Month of death of individual %ld on line %d was unknown %f, you should set it otherwise the information on the death is skipped and results are biased.\n",num[i],i,moisdc[i]); 
           s[m][i]=-1; /* We prefer to skip it (and to skip it in version 0.8a1 too */
         }
       }
     }
   
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {
       agedc[i]=(moisdc[i]/12.+andc[i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+annais[i]);
       for(m=firstpass; (m<= lastpass); m++){
         if(s[m][i] >0){
           if (s[m][i] >= nlstate+1) {
             if(agedc[i]>0)
               if((int)moisdc[i]!=99 && (int)andc[i]!=9999)
                 agev[m][i]=agedc[i];
             /*if(moisdc[i]==99 && andc[i]==9999) s[m][i]=-1;*/
               else {
                 if ((int)andc[i]!=9999){
                   nbwarn++;
                   printf("Warning negative age at death: %ld line:%d\n",num[i],i);
                   fprintf(ficlog,"Warning negative age at death: %ld line:%d\n",num[i],i);
                   agev[m][i]=-1;
                 }
               }
           }
           else if(s[m][i] !=9){ /* Standard case, age in fractional
                                    years but with the precision of a
                                    month */
             agev[m][i]=(mint[m][i]/12.+1./24.+anint[m][i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+1./24.+annais[i]);
             if((int)mint[m][i]==99 || (int)anint[m][i]==9999)
               agev[m][i]=1;
             else if(agev[m][i] <agemin){ 
               agemin=agev[m][i];
               /*printf(" Min anint[%d][%d]=%.2f annais[%d]=%.2f, agemin=%.2f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], agemin);*/
             }
             else if(agev[m][i] >agemax){
               agemax=agev[m][i];
               /* printf(" anint[%d][%d]=%.0f annais[%d]=%.0f, agemax=%.0f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], agemax);*/
             }
             /*agev[m][i]=anint[m][i]-annais[i];*/
             /*     agev[m][i] = age[i]+2*m;*/
           }
           else { /* =9 */
             agev[m][i]=1;
             s[m][i]=-1;
           }
         }
         else /*= 0 Unknown */
           agev[m][i]=1;
       }
       
     }
     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {
       for(m=firstpass; (m<=lastpass); m++){
         if (s[m][i] > (nlstate+ndeath)) {
           nberr++;
           printf("Error: on wave %d of individual %d status %d > (nlstate+ndeath)=(%d+%d)=%d\n",m,i,s[m][i],nlstate, ndeath, nlstate+ndeath);     
           fprintf(ficlog,"Error: on wave %d of individual %d status %d > (nlstate+ndeath)=(%d+%d)=%d\n",m,i,s[m][i],nlstate, ndeath, nlstate+ndeath);     
           goto end;
         }
       }
     }
   
     /*for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
     for (m=firstpass; (m<lastpass); m++){
        printf("%ld %d %.lf %d %d\n", num[i],(covar[1][i]),agev[m][i],s[m][i],s[m+1][i]);
   }
   
   }*/
   
     printf("Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx, agemin, agemax);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx, agemin, agemax); 
   
     free_vector(severity,1,maxwav);
     free_imatrix(outcome,1,maxwav+1,1,n);
     free_vector(moisnais,1,n);
     free_vector(annais,1,n);
     /* free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);
        free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n);*/
     free_vector(moisdc,1,n);
     free_vector(andc,1,n);
   
      
     wav=ivector(1,imx);
     dh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
     bh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
     mw=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
      
     /* Concatenates waves */
     concatwav(wav, dh, bh, mw, s, agedc, agev,  firstpass, lastpass, imx, nlstate, stepm);
   
     /* Routine tricode is to calculate cptcoveff (real number of unique covariates) and to associate covariable number and modality */
   
     Tcode=ivector(1,100);
     nbcode=imatrix(0,NCOVMAX,0,NCOVMAX); 
     ncodemax[1]=1;
     if (cptcovn > 0) tricode(Tvar,nbcode,imx);
         
     codtab=imatrix(1,100,1,10); /* Cross tabulation to get the order of 
                                    the estimations*/
     h=0;
     m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
    
     for(k=1;k<=cptcoveff; k++){
       for(i=1; i <=(m/pow(2,k));i++){
         for(j=1; j <= ncodemax[k]; j++){
           for(cpt=1; cpt <=(m/pow(2,cptcoveff+1-k)); cpt++){
             h++;
             if (h>m) h=1;codtab[h][k]=j;codtab[h][Tvar[k]]=j;
             /*  printf("h=%d k=%d j=%d codtab[h][k]=%d tvar[k]=%d \n",h, k,j,codtab[h][k],Tvar[k]);*/
           } 
         }
       }
     } 
     /* printf("codtab[1][2]=%d codtab[2][2]=%d",codtab[1][2],codtab[2][2]); 
        codtab[1][2]=1;codtab[2][2]=2; */
     /* for(i=1; i <=m ;i++){ 
        for(k=1; k <=cptcovn; k++){
        printf("i=%d k=%d %d %d ",i,k,codtab[i][k], cptcoveff);
        }
        printf("\n");
        }
        scanf("%d",i);*/
       
     /*------------ gnuplot -------------*/
     strcpy(optionfilegnuplot,optionfilefiname);
     strcat(optionfilegnuplot,".gp");
     if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot);
     }
     else{
       fprintf(ficgp,"\n# %s\n", version); 
       fprintf(ficgp,"# %s\n", optionfilegnuplot); 
       fprintf(ficgp,"set missing 'NaNq'\n");
     }
     /*  fclose(ficgp);*/
     /*--------- index.htm --------*/
   
     strcpy(optionfilehtm,optionfilefiname); /* Main html file */
     strcat(optionfilehtm,".htm");
     if((fichtm=fopen(optionfilehtm,"w"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtm), exit(0);
     }
   
     strcpy(optionfilehtmcov,optionfilefiname); /* Only for matrix of covariance */
     strcat(optionfilehtmcov,"-cov.htm");
     if((fichtmcov=fopen(optionfilehtmcov,"w"))==NULL)    {
       printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtmcov), exit(0);
     }
     else{
     fprintf(fichtmcov,"<body>\n<title>IMaCh Cov %s</title>\n <font size=\"2\">%s <br> %s</font> \
   <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n\
   Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>\n",\
             fileres,version,fullversion,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt, model);
     }
   
     fprintf(fichtm,"<body>\n<title>IMaCh %s</title>\n <font size=\"2\">%s <br> %s</font> \
   <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n\
   Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>\n\
   \n\
   <hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">\
    <ul><li><h4>Parameter files</h4>\n\
    - Copy of the parameter file: <a href=\"o%s\">o%s</a><br>\n\
    - Log file of the run: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n\
    - Gnuplot file name: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n\
    - Date and time at start: %s</ul>\n",\
             fileres,version,fullversion,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt, model,\
             fileres,fileres,\
             filelog,filelog,optionfilegnuplot,optionfilegnuplot,strstart);
     fflush(fichtm);
   
     strcpy(pathr,path);
     strcat(pathr,optionfilefiname);
     chdir(optionfilefiname); /* Move to directory named optionfile */
     
     /* Calculates basic frequencies. Computes observed prevalence at single age
        and prints on file fileres'p'. */
     freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint);
   
     fprintf(fichtm,"\n");
     fprintf(fichtm,"<br>Total number of observations=%d <br>\n\
   Youngest age at first (selected) pass %.2f, oldest age %.2f<br>\n\
   Interval (in months) between two waves: Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%.2lf<br>\n",\
             imx,agemin,agemax,jmin,jmax,jmean);
     pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
       oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
       newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
       savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
       oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */
       
      
     /* For Powell, parameters are in a vector p[] starting at p[1]
        so we point p on param[1][1] so that p[1] maps on param[1][1][1] */
     p=param[1][1]; /* *(*(*(param +1)+1)+0) */
   
     globpr=0; /* To get the number ipmx of contributions and the sum of weights*/
     likelione(ficres, p, npar, nlstate, &globpr, &ipmx, &sw, &fretone, funcone); /* Prints the contributions to the likelihood */
     printf("First Likeli=%12.6f ipmx=%ld sw=%12.6f",fretone,ipmx,sw);
     for (k=1; k<=npar;k++)
       printf(" %d %8.5f",k,p[k]);
     printf("\n");
     globpr=1; /* to print the contributions */
     likelione(ficres, p, npar, nlstate, &globpr, &ipmx, &sw, &fretone, funcone); /* Prints the contributions to the likelihood */
     printf("Second Likeli=%12.6f ipmx=%ld sw=%12.6f",fretone,ipmx,sw);
     for (k=1; k<=npar;k++)
       printf(" %d %8.5f",k,p[k]);
     printf("\n");
     if(mle>=1){ /* Could be 1 or 2 */
       mlikeli(ficres,p, npar, ncovmodel, nlstate, ftol, func);
     }
       
     /*--------- results files --------------*/
     fprintf(ficres,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle= 0 weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate, ndeath, maxwav, weightopt,model);
     
   
     fprintf(ficres,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
     printf("# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
     fprintf(ficlog,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
     for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
       for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
         if (k != i) {
           printf("%d%d ",i,k);
           fprintf(ficlog,"%d%d ",i,k);
           fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d ",i,k);
           for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
             printf("%f ",p[jk]);
             fprintf(ficlog,"%f ",p[jk]);
             fprintf(ficres,"%f ",p[jk]);
             jk++; 
           }
           printf("\n");
           fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
           fprintf(ficres,"\n");
         }
       }
     }
     if(mle!=0){
       /* Computing hessian and covariance matrix */
       ftolhess=ftol; /* Usually correct */
       hesscov(matcov, p, npar, delti, ftolhess, func);
     }
     fprintf(ficres,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
     printf("# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
     fprintf(ficlog,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
     for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
       for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
         if (j!=i) {
           fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d",i,j);
           printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
           fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i,j);
           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
             printf(" %.5e",delti[jk]);
             fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",delti[jk]);
             fprintf(ficres," %.5e",delti[jk]);
             jk++;
           }
           printf("\n");
           fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
           fprintf(ficres,"\n");
         }
       }
     }
      
     fprintf(ficres,"# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
     if(mle>=1)
       printf("# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
     fprintf(ficlog,"# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
   /* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */
   /* # 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n\ */
   /* # 131 Cov(a13,a12) Cov(a13,b12, Var(a13)\n\ */
   /* # 132 Cov(b13,a12) Cov(b13,b12, Cov(b13,a13) Var(b13)\n\ */
   /* # 212 Cov(a21,a12) Cov(a21,b12, Cov(a21,a13) Cov(a21,b13) Var(a21)\n\ */
   /* # 212 Cov(b21,a12) Cov(b21,b12, Cov(b21,a13) Cov(b21,b13) Cov(b21,a21) Var(b21)\n\ */
   /* # 232 Cov(a23,a12) Cov(a23,b12, Cov(a23,a13) Cov(a23,b13) Cov(a23,a21) Cov(a23,b21) Var(a23)\n\ */
   /* # 232 Cov(b23,a12) Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n" */
   
   
   /* Just to have a covariance matrix which will be more understandable
      even is we still don't want to manage dictionary of variables
   */
     for(itimes=1;itimes<=2;itimes++){
       jj=0;
       for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
         for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
           if(j==i) continue;
           for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
             jj++;
             ca[0]= k+'a'-1;ca[1]='\0';
             if(itimes==1){
               if(mle>=1)
                 printf("#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               fprintf(ficlog,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               fprintf(ficres,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
             }else{
               if(mle>=1)
                 printf("%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
               fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
             }
             ll=0;
             for(li=1;li <=nlstate; li++){
               for(lj=1;lj <=nlstate+ndeath; lj++){
                 if(lj==li) continue;
                 for(lk=1;lk<=ncovmodel;lk++){
                   ll++;
                   if(ll<=jj){
                     cb[0]= lk +'a'-1;cb[1]='\0';
                     if(ll<jj){
                       if(itimes==1){
                         if(mle>=1)
                           printf(" Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                         fprintf(ficlog," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                         fprintf(ficres," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                       }else{
                         if(mle>=1)
                           printf(" %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                         fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                         fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                       }
                     }else{
                       if(itimes==1){
                         if(mle>=1)
                           printf(" Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                         fprintf(ficlog," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                         fprintf(ficres," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                       }else{
                         if(mle>=1)
                           printf(" %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                         fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                         fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                       }
                     }
                   }
                 } /* end lk */
               } /* end lj */
             } /* end li */
             if(mle>=1)
               printf("\n");
             fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
             fprintf(ficres,"\n");
             numlinepar++;
           } /* end k*/
         } /*end j */
       } /* end i */
     } /* end itimes */
   
     fflush(ficlog);
     fflush(ficres);
   
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       puts(line);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
   
     estepm=0;
     fscanf(ficpar,"agemin=%lf agemax=%lf bage=%lf fage=%lf estepm=%d\n",&ageminpar,&agemaxpar, &bage, &fage, &estepm);
     if (estepm==0 || estepm < stepm) estepm=stepm;
     if (fage <= 2) {
       bage = ageminpar;
       fage = agemaxpar;
     }
      
     fprintf(ficres,"# agemin agemax for life expectancy, bage fage (if mle==0 ie no data nor Max likelihood).\n");
     fprintf(ficres,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm);
     fprintf(ficparo,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm);
      
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       puts(line);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
     
     fscanf(ficpar,"begin-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf end-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mov_average=%d\n",&jprev1, &mprev1,&anprev1,&jprev2, &mprev2,&anprev2,&mobilav);
     fprintf(ficparo,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
     fprintf(ficres,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
     printf("begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
     fprintf(ficlog,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
      
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       puts(line);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
    
   
     dateprev1=anprev1+(mprev1-1)/12.+(jprev1-1)/365.;
     dateprev2=anprev2+(mprev2-1)/12.+(jprev2-1)/365.;
   
     fscanf(ficpar,"pop_based=%d\n",&popbased);
     fprintf(ficparo,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);   
     fprintf(ficres,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);   
     
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       puts(line);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
   
     fscanf(ficpar,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf final-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mobil_average=%d\n",&prevfcast,&jproj1,&mproj1,&anproj1,&jproj2,&mproj2,&anproj2,&mobilavproj);
     fprintf(ficparo,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
     printf("prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
     fprintf(ficlog,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
     fprintf(ficres,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
     /* day and month of proj2 are not used but only year anproj2.*/
   
     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
       ungetc(c,ficpar);
       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
       puts(line);
       fputs(line,ficparo);
     }
     ungetc(c,ficpar);
   
     fscanf(ficpar,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s popfiledate=%lf/%lf/%lf last-popfiledate=%lf/%lf/%lf\n",&popforecast,popfile,&jpyram,&mpyram,&anpyram,&jpyram1,&mpyram1,&anpyram1);
     fprintf(ficparo,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s popfiledate=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf last-popfiledate=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",popforecast,popfile,jpyram,mpyram,anpyram,jpyram1,mpyram1,anpyram1);
     fprintf(ficres,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s popfiledate=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf last-popfiledate=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",popforecast,popfile,jpyram,mpyram,anpyram,jpyram1,mpyram1,anpyram1);
   
     /*  freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint);*/
     /*,dateprev1,dateprev2,jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);*/
   
     replace_back_to_slash(pathc,path); /* Even gnuplot wants a / */
     printinggnuplot(fileres, optionfilefiname,ageminpar,agemaxpar,fage, pathc,p);
   
     printinghtml(fileres,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, stepm, weightopt,\
                  model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,rfileres,popforecast,estepm,\
                  jprev1,mprev1,anprev1,jprev2,mprev2,anprev2);
    
     /*------------ free_vector  -------------*/
     /*  chdir(path); */
    
     free_ivector(wav,1,imx);
     free_imatrix(dh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
     free_imatrix(bh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
     free_imatrix(mw,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);   
     free_lvector(num,1,n);
     free_vector(agedc,1,n);
     /*free_matrix(covar,0,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/
     /*free_matrix(covar,1,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/
     fclose(ficparo);
     fclose(ficres);
   
   
     /*--------------- Prevalence limit  (stable prevalence) --------------*/
     
     strcpy(filerespl,"pl");
     strcat(filerespl,fileres);
     if((ficrespl=fopen(filerespl,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with stable prevalence resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);goto end;
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with stable prevalence resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);goto end;
     }
     printf("Computing stable prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing stable prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);
     fprintf(ficrespl,"#Stable prevalence \n");
     fprintf(ficrespl,"#Age ");
     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrespl,"%d-%d ",i,i);
     fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");
     
     prlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
   
     agebase=ageminpar;
     agelim=agemaxpar;
     ftolpl=1.e-10;
     i1=cptcoveff;
     if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
   
     for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
       for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
         k=k+1;
         /*printf("cptcov=%d cptcod=%d codtab=%d nbcode=%d\n",cptcov, cptcod,Tcode[cptcode],codtab[cptcod][cptcov]);*/
         fprintf(ficrespl,"\n#******");
         printf("\n#******");
         fprintf(ficlog,"\n#******");
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
           fprintf(ficrespl," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           printf(" V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           fprintf(ficlog," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
         }
         fprintf(ficrespl,"******\n");
         printf("******\n");
         fprintf(ficlog,"******\n");
           
         for (age=agebase; age<=agelim; age++){
           prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);
           fprintf(ficrespl,"%.0f ",age );
           for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
             fprintf(ficrespl,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
             fprintf(ficrespl," %.5f", prlim[i][i]);
           fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");
         }
       }
     }
     fclose(ficrespl);
   
     /*------------- h Pij x at various ages ------------*/
     
     strcpy(filerespij,"pij");  strcat(filerespij,fileres);
     if((ficrespij=fopen(filerespij,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with Pij resultfile: %s\n", filerespij);goto end;
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Pij resultfile: %s\n", filerespij);goto end;
     }
     printf("Computing pij: result on file '%s' \n", filerespij);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing pij: result on file '%s' \n", filerespij);
     
     stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
     /*if (stepm<=24) stepsize=2;*/
   
     agelim=AGESUP;
     hstepm=stepsize*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
     hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */ 
   
     /* hstepm=1;   aff par mois*/
   
     fprintf(ficrespij,"#****** h Pij x Probability to be in state j at age x+h being in i at x ");
     for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
       for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
         k=k+1;
         fprintf(ficrespij,"\n#****** ");
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
           fprintf(ficrespij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
         fprintf(ficrespij,"******\n");
           
         for (agedeb=fage; agedeb>=bage; agedeb--){ /* If stepm=6 months */
           nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */ 
           nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */
   
           /*        nhstepm=nhstepm*YEARM; aff par mois*/
   
           p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
           hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
           fprintf(ficrespij,"# Cov Agex agex+h hpijx with i,j=");
           for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
             for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
               fprintf(ficrespij," %1d-%1d",i,j);
           fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
           for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
             fprintf(ficrespij,"%d %3.f %3.f",k,agedeb, agedeb+ h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm );
             for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
               for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
                 fprintf(ficrespij," %.5f", p3mat[i][j][h]);
             fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
           }
           free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
           fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
         }
       }
     }
   
     varprob(optionfilefiname, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, bage, fage,k,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax);
   
     fclose(ficrespij);
   
     probs= ma3x(1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     for(i=1;i<=AGESUP;i++)
       for(j=1;j<=NCOVMAX;j++)
         for(k=1;k<=NCOVMAX;k++)
           probs[i][j][k]=0.;
   
     /*---------- Forecasting ------------------*/
     /*if((stepm == 1) && (strcmp(model,".")==0)){*/
     if(prevfcast==1){
       /*    if(stepm ==1){*/
         prevforecast(fileres, anproj1, mproj1, jproj1, agemin, agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2, mobilavproj, bage, fage, firstpass, lastpass, anproj2, p, cptcoveff);
         /* (popforecast==1) populforecast(fileres, anpyram,mpyram,jpyram, agemin,agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2,mobilav, agedeb, fage, popforecast, popfile, anpyram1,p, i1);*/
   /*      }  */
   /*      else{ */
   /*        erreur=108; */
   /*        printf("Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model); */
   /*        fprintf(ficlog,"Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model); */
   /*      } */
     }
     
   
     /*---------- Health expectancies and variances ------------*/
   
     strcpy(filerest,"t");
     strcat(filerest,fileres);
     if((ficrest=fopen(filerest,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;
     }
     printf("Computing Total LEs with variances: file '%s' \n", filerest); 
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Total LEs with variances: file '%s' \n", filerest); 
   
   
     strcpy(filerese,"e");
     strcat(filerese,fileres);
     if((ficreseij=fopen(filerese,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);
     }
     printf("Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);
   
     strcpy(fileresv,"v");
     strcat(fileresv,fileres);
     if((ficresvij=fopen(fileresv,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);
       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);
     }
     printf("Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);
   
     /* Computes prevalence between agemin (i.e minimal age computed) and no more ageminpar */
     prevalence(probs, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
     /*  printf("ageminpar=%f, agemax=%f, s[lastpass][imx]=%d, agev[lastpass][imx]=%f, nlstate=%d, imx=%d,  mint[lastpass][imx]=%f, anint[lastpass][imx]=%f,dateprev1=%f, dateprev2=%f, firstpass=%d, lastpass=%d\n",\
   ageminpar, agemax, s[lastpass][imx], agev[lastpass][imx], nlstate, imx, mint[lastpass][imx],anint[lastpass][imx], dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
     */
   
     if (mobilav!=0) {
       mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
       if (movingaverage(probs, bage, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
         fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
         printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
       }
     }
   
     for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
       for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
         k=k+1; 
         fprintf(ficrest,"\n#****** ");
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
           fprintf(ficrest,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
         fprintf(ficrest,"******\n");
   
         fprintf(ficreseij,"\n#****** ");
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
           fprintf(ficreseij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
         fprintf(ficreseij,"******\n");
   
         fprintf(ficresvij,"\n#****** ");
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
           fprintf(ficresvij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
         fprintf(ficresvij,"******\n");
   
         eij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
         oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
         evsij(fileres, eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k, estepm, delti, matcov);  
    
         vareij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
         oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
         varevsij(optionfilefiname, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k, estepm, cptcov,cptcod,0, mobilav);
         if(popbased==1){
           varevsij(optionfilefiname, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k, estepm, cptcov,cptcod,popbased,mobilav);
         }
   
    
         fprintf(ficrest,"#Total LEs with variances: e.. (std) ");
         for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrest,"e.%d (std) ",i);
         fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
   
         epj=vector(1,nlstate+1);
         for(age=bage; age <=fage ;age++){
           prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);
           if (popbased==1) {
             if(mobilav ==0){
               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                 prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][k];
             }else{ /* mobilav */ 
               for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                 prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][k];
             }
           }
           
           fprintf(ficrest," %4.0f",age);
           for(j=1, epj[nlstate+1]=0.;j <=nlstate;j++){
             for(i=1, epj[j]=0.;i <=nlstate;i++) {
               epj[j] += prlim[i][i]*eij[i][j][(int)age];
               /*  printf("%lf %lf ", prlim[i][i] ,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
             }
             epj[nlstate+1] +=epj[j];
           }
   
           for(i=1, vepp=0.;i <=nlstate;i++)
             for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++)
               vepp += vareij[i][j][(int)age];
           fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[nlstate+1],sqrt(vepp));
           for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++){
             fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[j],sqrt(vareij[j][j][(int)age]));
           }
           fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
         }
         free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
         free_ma3x(vareij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
         free_vector(epj,1,nlstate+1);
       }
     }
     free_vector(weight,1,n);
     free_imatrix(Tvard,1,15,1,2);
     free_imatrix(s,1,maxwav+1,1,n);
     free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n); 
     free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);
     free_ivector(cod,1,n);
     free_ivector(tab,1,NCOVMAX);
     fclose(ficreseij);
     fclose(ficresvij);
     fclose(ficrest);
     fclose(ficpar);
     
     /*------- Variance of stable prevalence------*/   
   
     strcpy(fileresvpl,"vpl");
     strcat(fileresvpl,fileres);
     if((ficresvpl=fopen(fileresvpl,"w"))==NULL) {
       printf("Problem with variance of stable prevalence  resultfile: %s\n", fileresvpl);
       exit(0);
     }
     printf("Computing Variance-covariance of stable prevalence: file '%s' \n", fileresvpl);
   
     for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
       for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
         k=k+1;
         fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n#****** ");
         for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
           fprintf(ficresvpl,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
         fprintf(ficresvpl,"******\n");
         
         varpl=matrix(1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
         oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
         varprevlim(fileres, varpl, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k);
         free_matrix(varpl,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
       }
     }
   
     fclose(ficresvpl);
   
     /*---------- End : free ----------------*/
     free_matrix(pmmij,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
     free_matrix(oldms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
     free_matrix(newms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
     free_matrix(savms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
     
     free_matrix(covar,0,NCOVMAX,1,n);
     free_matrix(matcov,1,npar,1,npar);
     /*free_vector(delti,1,npar);*/
     free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel); 
     free_matrix(agev,1,maxwav,1,imx);
     free_ma3x(param,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
     if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
     free_ma3x(probs,1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
   
     free_ivector(ncodemax,1,8);
     free_ivector(Tvar,1,15);
     free_ivector(Tprod,1,15);
     free_ivector(Tvaraff,1,15);
     free_ivector(Tage,1,15);
     free_ivector(Tcode,1,100);
   
     fflush(fichtm);
     fflush(ficgp);
     
   
     if((nberr >0) || (nbwarn>0)){
       printf("End of Imach with %d errors and/or %d warnings\n",nberr,nbwarn);
       fprintf(ficlog,"End of Imach with %d errors and/or warnings %d\n",nberr,nbwarn);
     }else{
       printf("End of Imach\n");
       fprintf(ficlog,"End of Imach\n");
     }
     printf("See log file on %s\n",filelog);
     /*  gettimeofday(&end_time, (struct timezone*)0);*/  /* after time */
     (void) gettimeofday(&end_time,&tzp);
     tm = *localtime(&end_time.tv_sec);
     tmg = *gmtime(&end_time.tv_sec);
     strcpy(strtend,asctime(&tm));
     printf("Local time at start %s\nLocaltime at end   %s",strstart, strtend); 
     fprintf(ficlog,"Local time at start %s\nLocal time at end   %s\n",strstart, strtend); 
     printf("Total time used %s\n", asc_diff_time(end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec,tmpout));
   
     printf("Total time was %d Sec.\n", end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec);
     fprintf(ficlog,"Total time used %s\n", asc_diff_time(end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec,tmpout));
     fprintf(ficlog,"Total time was %d Sec.\n", end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec);
     /*  printf("Total time was %d uSec.\n", total_usecs);*/
   /*   if(fileappend(fichtm,optionfilehtm)){ */
     fprintf(fichtm,"<br>Local time at start %s<br>Local time at end   %s<br>",strstart, strtend);
     fclose(fichtm);
     fclose(fichtmcov);
     fclose(ficgp);
     fclose(ficlog);
     /*------ End -----------*/
   
     chdir(path);
     strcpy(plotcmd,GNUPLOTPROGRAM);
     strcat(plotcmd," ");
     strcat(plotcmd,optionfilegnuplot);
     printf("Starting graphs with: %s",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
     if((outcmd=system(plotcmd)) != 0){
       printf(" Problem with gnuplot\n");
     }
     printf(" Wait...");
     while (z[0] != 'q') {
       /* chdir(path); */
       printf("\nType e to edit output files, g to graph again and q for exiting: ");
       scanf("%s",z);
   /*     if (z[0] == 'c') system("./imach"); */
       if (z[0] == 'e') system(optionfilehtm);
       else if (z[0] == 'g') system(plotcmd);
       else if (z[0] == 'q') exit(0);
     }
     end:
     while (z[0] != 'q') {
       printf("\nType  q for exiting: ");
       scanf("%s",z);
     }
   }
   
   
   

Removed from v.1.5  
changed lines
  Added in v.1.96


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