Annotation of imach/src/imach.c, revision 1.120

1.120   ! lievre      1: /* $Id: imach.c,v 1.119 2006/03/15 17:42:26 brouard Exp $
1.83      lievre      2:   $State: Exp $
                      3:   $Log: imach.c,v $
1.120   ! lievre      4:   Revision 1.119  2006/03/15 17:42:26  brouard
        !             5:   (Module): Bug if status = -2, the loglikelihood was
        !             6:   computed as likelihood omitting the logarithm. Version O.98e
        !             7: 
1.119     brouard     8:   Revision 1.118  2006/03/14 18:20:07  brouard
                      9:   (Module): varevsij Comments added explaining the second
                     10:   table of variances if popbased=1 .
                     11:   (Module): Covariances of eij, ekl added, graphs fixed, new html link.
                     12:   (Module): Function pstamp added
                     13:   (Module): Version 0.98d
                     14: 
1.118     brouard    15:   Revision 1.117  2006/03/14 17:16:22  brouard
                     16:   (Module): varevsij Comments added explaining the second
                     17:   table of variances if popbased=1 .
                     18:   (Module): Covariances of eij, ekl added, graphs fixed, new html link.
                     19:   (Module): Function pstamp added
                     20:   (Module): Version 0.98d
                     21: 
1.117     brouard    22:   Revision 1.116  2006/03/06 10:29:27  brouard
                     23:   (Module): Variance-covariance wrong links and
                     24:   varian-covariance of ej. is needed (Saito).
                     25: 
1.116     brouard    26:   Revision 1.115  2006/02/27 12:17:45  brouard
                     27:   (Module): One freematrix added in mlikeli! 0.98c
                     28: 
1.115     brouard    29:   Revision 1.114  2006/02/26 12:57:58  brouard
                     30:   (Module): Some improvements in processing parameter
                     31:   filename with strsep.
                     32: 
1.114     brouard    33:   Revision 1.113  2006/02/24 14:20:24  brouard
                     34:   (Module): Memory leaks checks with valgrind and:
                     35:   datafile was not closed, some imatrix were not freed and on matrix
                     36:   allocation too.
                     37: 
1.113     brouard    38:   Revision 1.112  2006/01/30 09:55:26  brouard
                     39:   (Module): Back to gnuplot.exe instead of wgnuplot.exe
                     40: 
1.112     brouard    41:   Revision 1.111  2006/01/25 20:38:18  brouard
                     42:   (Module): Lots of cleaning and bugs added (Gompertz)
                     43:   (Module): Comments can be added in data file. Missing date values
                     44:   can be a simple dot '.'.
                     45: 
1.111     brouard    46:   Revision 1.110  2006/01/25 00:51:50  brouard
                     47:   (Module): Lots of cleaning and bugs added (Gompertz)
                     48: 
1.110     brouard    49:   Revision 1.109  2006/01/24 19:37:15  brouard
                     50:   (Module): Comments (lines starting with a #) are allowed in data.
                     51: 
1.109     brouard    52:   Revision 1.108  2006/01/19 18:05:42  lievre
                     53:   Gnuplot problem appeared...
                     54:   To be fixed
                     55: 
1.108     lievre     56:   Revision 1.107  2006/01/19 16:20:37  brouard
                     57:   Test existence of gnuplot in imach path
                     58: 
1.107     brouard    59:   Revision 1.106  2006/01/19 13:24:36  brouard
                     60:   Some cleaning and links added in html output
                     61: 
1.106     brouard    62:   Revision 1.105  2006/01/05 20:23:19  lievre
                     63:   *** empty log message ***
                     64: 
1.105     lievre     65:   Revision 1.104  2005/09/30 16:11:43  lievre
                     66:   (Module): sump fixed, loop imx fixed, and simplifications.
                     67:   (Module): If the status is missing at the last wave but we know
                     68:   that the person is alive, then we can code his/her status as -2
                     69:   (instead of missing=-1 in earlier versions) and his/her
                     70:   contributions to the likelihood is 1 - Prob of dying from last
                     71:   health status (= 1-p13= p11+p12 in the easiest case of somebody in
                     72:   the healthy state at last known wave). Version is 0.98
                     73: 
1.104     lievre     74:   Revision 1.103  2005/09/30 15:54:49  lievre
                     75:   (Module): sump fixed, loop imx fixed, and simplifications.
                     76: 
1.103     lievre     77:   Revision 1.102  2004/09/15 17:31:30  brouard
                     78:   Add the possibility to read data file including tab characters.
                     79: 
1.102     brouard    80:   Revision 1.101  2004/09/15 10:38:38  brouard
                     81:   Fix on curr_time
                     82: 
1.101     brouard    83:   Revision 1.100  2004/07/12 18:29:06  brouard
                     84:   Add version for Mac OS X. Just define UNIX in Makefile
                     85: 
1.100     brouard    86:   Revision 1.99  2004/06/05 08:57:40  brouard
                     87:   *** empty log message ***
                     88: 
1.99      brouard    89:   Revision 1.98  2004/05/16 15:05:56  brouard
                     90:   New version 0.97 . First attempt to estimate force of mortality
                     91:   directly from the data i.e. without the need of knowing the health
                     92:   state at each age, but using a Gompertz model: log u =a + b*age .
                     93:   This is the basic analysis of mortality and should be done before any
                     94:   other analysis, in order to test if the mortality estimated from the
                     95:   cross-longitudinal survey is different from the mortality estimated
                     96:   from other sources like vital statistic data.
                     97: 
                     98:   The same imach parameter file can be used but the option for mle should be -3.
                     99: 
                    100:   Agnès, who wrote this part of the code, tried to keep most of the
                    101:   former routines in order to include the new code within the former code.
                    102: 
                    103:   The output is very simple: only an estimate of the intercept and of
                    104:   the slope with 95% confident intervals.
                    105: 
                    106:   Current limitations:
                    107:   A) Even if you enter covariates, i.e. with the
                    108:   model= V1+V2 equation for example, the programm does only estimate a unique global model without covariates.
                    109:   B) There is no computation of Life Expectancy nor Life Table.
                    110: 
1.98      brouard   111:   Revision 1.97  2004/02/20 13:25:42  lievre
                    112:   Version 0.96d. Population forecasting command line is (temporarily)
                    113:   suppressed.
                    114: 
1.97      lievre    115:   Revision 1.96  2003/07/15 15:38:55  brouard
                    116:   * imach.c (Repository): Errors in subdirf, 2, 3 while printing tmpout is
                    117:   rewritten within the same printf. Workaround: many printfs.
                    118: 
1.96      brouard   119:   Revision 1.95  2003/07/08 07:54:34  brouard
                    120:   * imach.c (Repository):
                    121:   (Repository): Using imachwizard code to output a more meaningful covariance
                    122:   matrix (cov(a12,c31) instead of numbers.
                    123: 
1.95      brouard   124:   Revision 1.94  2003/06/27 13:00:02  brouard
                    125:   Just cleaning
                    126: 
1.94      brouard   127:   Revision 1.93  2003/06/25 16:33:55  brouard
                    128:   (Module): On windows (cygwin) function asctime_r doesn't
                    129:   exist so I changed back to asctime which exists.
                    130:   (Module): Version 0.96b
                    131: 
1.93      brouard   132:   Revision 1.92  2003/06/25 16:30:45  brouard
                    133:   (Module): On windows (cygwin) function asctime_r doesn't
                    134:   exist so I changed back to asctime which exists.
                    135: 
1.92      brouard   136:   Revision 1.91  2003/06/25 15:30:29  brouard
                    137:   * imach.c (Repository): Duplicated warning errors corrected.
                    138:   (Repository): Elapsed time after each iteration is now output. It
                    139:   helps to forecast when convergence will be reached. Elapsed time
                    140:   is stamped in powell.  We created a new html file for the graphs
                    141:   concerning matrix of covariance. It has extension -cov.htm.
                    142: 
1.91      brouard   143:   Revision 1.90  2003/06/24 12:34:15  brouard
                    144:   (Module): Some bugs corrected for windows. Also, when
                    145:   mle=-1 a template is output in file "or"mypar.txt with the design
                    146:   of the covariance matrix to be input.
                    147: 
1.90      brouard   148:   Revision 1.89  2003/06/24 12:30:52  brouard
                    149:   (Module): Some bugs corrected for windows. Also, when
                    150:   mle=-1 a template is output in file "or"mypar.txt with the design
                    151:   of the covariance matrix to be input.
                    152: 
1.89      brouard   153:   Revision 1.88  2003/06/23 17:54:56  brouard
                    154:   * imach.c (Repository): Create a sub-directory where all the secondary files are. Only imach, htm, gp and r(imach) are on the main directory. Correct time and other things.
                    155: 
1.88      brouard   156:   Revision 1.87  2003/06/18 12:26:01  brouard
                    157:   Version 0.96
                    158: 
1.87      brouard   159:   Revision 1.86  2003/06/17 20:04:08  brouard
                    160:   (Module): Change position of html and gnuplot routines and added
                    161:   routine fileappend.
                    162: 
1.86      brouard   163:   Revision 1.85  2003/06/17 13:12:43  brouard
                    164:   * imach.c (Repository): Check when date of death was earlier that
                    165:   current date of interview. It may happen when the death was just
                    166:   prior to the death. In this case, dh was negative and likelihood
                    167:   was wrong (infinity). We still send an "Error" but patch by
                    168:   assuming that the date of death was just one stepm after the
                    169:   interview.
                    170:   (Repository): Because some people have very long ID (first column)
                    171:   we changed int to long in num[] and we added a new lvector for
                    172:   memory allocation. But we also truncated to 8 characters (left
                    173:   truncation)
                    174:   (Repository): No more line truncation errors.
                    175: 
1.85      brouard   176:   Revision 1.84  2003/06/13 21:44:43  brouard
                    177:   * imach.c (Repository): Replace "freqsummary" at a correct
                    178:   place. It differs from routine "prevalence" which may be called
                    179:   many times. Probs is memory consuming and must be used with
                    180:   parcimony.
1.86      brouard   181:   Version 0.95a3 (should output exactly the same maximization than 0.8a2)
1.85      brouard   182: 
1.84      brouard   183:   Revision 1.83  2003/06/10 13:39:11  lievre
                    184:   *** empty log message ***
                    185: 
1.83      lievre    186:   Revision 1.82  2003/06/05 15:57:20  brouard
                    187:   Add log in  imach.c and  fullversion number is now printed.
                    188: 
1.82      brouard   189: */
                    190: /*
1.53      brouard   191:    Interpolated Markov Chain
                    192: 
                    193:   Short summary of the programme:
                    194:   
                    195:   This program computes Healthy Life Expectancies from
                    196:   cross-longitudinal data. Cross-longitudinal data consist in: -1- a
                    197:   first survey ("cross") where individuals from different ages are
                    198:   interviewed on their health status or degree of disability (in the
                    199:   case of a health survey which is our main interest) -2- at least a
                    200:   second wave of interviews ("longitudinal") which measure each change
                    201:   (if any) in individual health status.  Health expectancies are
                    202:   computed from the time spent in each health state according to a
                    203:   model. More health states you consider, more time is necessary to reach the
                    204:   Maximum Likelihood of the parameters involved in the model.  The
                    205:   simplest model is the multinomial logistic model where pij is the
                    206:   probability to be observed in state j at the second wave
                    207:   conditional to be observed in state i at the first wave. Therefore
                    208:   the model is: log(pij/pii)= aij + bij*age+ cij*sex + etc , where
                    209:   'age' is age and 'sex' is a covariate. If you want to have a more
                    210:   complex model than "constant and age", you should modify the program
                    211:   where the markup *Covariates have to be included here again* invites
                    212:   you to do it.  More covariates you add, slower the
                    213:   convergence.
                    214: 
                    215:   The advantage of this computer programme, compared to a simple
                    216:   multinomial logistic model, is clear when the delay between waves is not
                    217:   identical for each individual. Also, if a individual missed an
                    218:   intermediate interview, the information is lost, but taken into
                    219:   account using an interpolation or extrapolation.  
                    220: 
                    221:   hPijx is the probability to be observed in state i at age x+h
                    222:   conditional to the observed state i at age x. The delay 'h' can be
                    223:   split into an exact number (nh*stepm) of unobserved intermediate
1.66      brouard   224:   states. This elementary transition (by month, quarter,
                    225:   semester or year) is modelled as a multinomial logistic.  The hPx
1.53      brouard   226:   matrix is simply the matrix product of nh*stepm elementary matrices
                    227:   and the contribution of each individual to the likelihood is simply
                    228:   hPijx.
                    229: 
                    230:   Also this programme outputs the covariance matrix of the parameters but also
1.117     brouard   231:   of the life expectancies. It also computes the period (stable) prevalence. 
1.53      brouard   232:   
                    233:   Authors: Nicolas Brouard (brouard@ined.fr) and Agnès Lièvre (lievre@ined.fr).
                    234:            Institut national d'études démographiques, Paris.
                    235:   This software have been partly granted by Euro-REVES, a concerted action
                    236:   from the European Union.
                    237:   It is copyrighted identically to a GNU software product, ie programme and
                    238:   software can be distributed freely for non commercial use. Latest version
                    239:   can be accessed at http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach .
1.74      brouard   240: 
                    241:   Help to debug: LD_PRELOAD=/usr/local/lib/libnjamd.so ./imach foo.imach
                    242:   or better on gdb : set env LD_PRELOAD=/usr/local/lib/libnjamd.so
                    243:   
1.53      brouard   244:   **********************************************************************/
1.74      brouard   245: /*
                    246:   main
                    247:   read parameterfile
                    248:   read datafile
                    249:   concatwav
1.84      brouard   250:   freqsummary
1.74      brouard   251:   if (mle >= 1)
                    252:     mlikeli
                    253:   print results files
                    254:   if mle==1 
                    255:      computes hessian
                    256:   read end of parameter file: agemin, agemax, bage, fage, estepm
                    257:       begin-prev-date,...
                    258:   open gnuplot file
                    259:   open html file
1.117     brouard   260:   period (stable) prevalence
1.74      brouard   261:    for age prevalim()
                    262:   h Pij x
                    263:   variance of p varprob
                    264:   forecasting if prevfcast==1 prevforecast call prevalence()
                    265:   health expectancies
                    266:   Variance-covariance of DFLE
                    267:   prevalence()
                    268:    movingaverage()
                    269:   varevsij() 
                    270:   if popbased==1 varevsij(,popbased)
                    271:   total life expectancies
1.117     brouard   272:   Variance of period (stable) prevalence
1.74      brouard   273:  end
                    274: */
                    275: 
                    276: 
                    277: 
1.53      brouard   278:  
                    279: #include <math.h>
                    280: #include <stdio.h>
                    281: #include <stdlib.h>
1.106     brouard   282: #include <string.h>
1.53      brouard   283: #include <unistd.h>
                    284: 
1.109     brouard   285: #include <limits.h>
1.107     brouard   286: #include <sys/types.h>
                    287: #include <sys/stat.h>
                    288: #include <errno.h>
                    289: extern int errno;
                    290: 
1.99      brouard   291: /* #include <sys/time.h> */
1.86      brouard   292: #include <time.h>
                    293: #include "timeval.h"
                    294: 
1.95      brouard   295: /* #include <libintl.h> */
                    296: /* #define _(String) gettext (String) */
                    297: 
1.53      brouard   298: #define MAXLINE 256
1.108     lievre    299: 
1.53      brouard   300: #define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "gnuplot"
                    301: /*#define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "..\\gp37mgw\\wgnuplot"*/
1.85      brouard   302: #define FILENAMELENGTH 132
1.108     lievre    303: 
1.53      brouard   304: #define        GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH              -1      /* empty path */
                    305: #define        GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD              -2      /* cannot get cwd */
                    306: 
                    307: #define MAXPARM 30 /* Maximum number of parameters for the optimization */
                    308: #define NPARMAX 64 /* (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel */
                    309: 
                    310: #define NINTERVMAX 8
                    311: #define NLSTATEMAX 8 /* Maximum number of live states (for func) */
                    312: #define NDEATHMAX 8 /* Maximum number of dead states (for func) */
                    313: #define NCOVMAX 8 /* Maximum number of covariates */
                    314: #define MAXN 20000
                    315: #define YEARM 12. /* Number of months per year */
                    316: #define AGESUP 130
                    317: #define AGEBASE 40
1.98      brouard   318: #define AGEGOMP 10. /* Minimal age for Gompertz adjustment */
1.100     brouard   319: #ifdef UNIX
1.85      brouard   320: #define DIRSEPARATOR '/'
1.107     brouard   321: #define CHARSEPARATOR "/"
1.85      brouard   322: #define ODIRSEPARATOR '\\'
                    323: #else
1.53      brouard   324: #define DIRSEPARATOR '\\'
1.107     brouard   325: #define CHARSEPARATOR "\\"
1.53      brouard   326: #define ODIRSEPARATOR '/'
                    327: #endif
                    328: 
1.120   ! lievre    329: /* $Id: imach.c,v 1.119 2006/03/15 17:42:26 brouard Exp $ */
1.81      brouard   330: /* $State: Exp $ */
1.80      brouard   331: 
1.120   ! lievre    332: char version[]="Imach version 0.98f, March 2006, INED-EUROREVES-Institut de longevite ";
        !           333: char fullversion[]="$Revision: 1.119 $ $Date: 2006/03/15 17:42:26 $"; 
1.117     brouard   334: char strstart[80];
                    335: char optionfilext[10], optionfilefiname[FILENAMELENGTH];
1.91      brouard   336: int erreur, nberr=0, nbwarn=0; /* Error number, number of errors number of warnings  */
1.53      brouard   337: int nvar;
                    338: int cptcovn=0, cptcovage=0, cptcoveff=0,cptcov;
                    339: int npar=NPARMAX;
                    340: int nlstate=2; /* Number of live states */
                    341: int ndeath=1; /* Number of dead states */
                    342: int ncovmodel, ncovcol;     /* Total number of covariables including constant a12*1 +b12*x ncovmodel=2 */
                    343: int popbased=0;
                    344: 
                    345: int *wav; /* Number of waves for this individuual 0 is possible */
                    346: int maxwav; /* Maxim number of waves */
                    347: int jmin, jmax; /* min, max spacing between 2 waves */
1.110     brouard   348: int ijmin, ijmax; /* Individuals having jmin and jmax */ 
1.87      brouard   349: int gipmx, gsw; /* Global variables on the number of contributions 
                    350:                   to the likelihood and the sum of weights (done by funcone)*/
1.53      brouard   351: int mle, weightopt;
                    352: int **mw; /* mw[mi][i] is number of the mi wave for this individual */
                    353: int **dh; /* dh[mi][i] is number of steps between mi,mi+1 for this individual */
1.59      brouard   354: int **bh; /* bh[mi][i] is the bias (+ or -) for this individual if the delay between
                    355:           * wave mi and wave mi+1 is not an exact multiple of stepm. */
1.53      brouard   356: double jmean; /* Mean space between 2 waves */
                    357: double **oldm, **newm, **savm; /* Working pointers to matrices */
                    358: double **oldms, **newms, **savms; /* Fixed working pointers to matrices */
1.117     brouard   359: FILE *fic,*ficpar, *ficparo,*ficres, *ficresp, *ficrespl, *ficrespij, *ficrest,*ficresf,*ficrespop;
1.76      brouard   360: FILE *ficlog, *ficrespow;
1.85      brouard   361: int globpr; /* Global variable for printing or not */
                    362: double fretone; /* Only one call to likelihood */
                    363: long ipmx; /* Number of contributions */
                    364: double sw; /* Sum of weights */
1.98      brouard   365: char filerespow[FILENAMELENGTH];
1.85      brouard   366: char fileresilk[FILENAMELENGTH]; /* File of individual contributions to the likelihood */
                    367: FILE *ficresilk;
1.53      brouard   368: FILE *ficgp,*ficresprob,*ficpop, *ficresprobcov, *ficresprobcor;
                    369: FILE *ficresprobmorprev;
1.91      brouard   370: FILE *fichtm, *fichtmcov; /* Html File */
1.53      brouard   371: FILE *ficreseij;
                    372: char filerese[FILENAMELENGTH];
1.117     brouard   373: FILE *ficresstdeij;
                    374: char fileresstde[FILENAMELENGTH];
                    375: FILE *ficrescveij;
                    376: char filerescve[FILENAMELENGTH];
1.53      brouard   377: FILE  *ficresvij;
                    378: char fileresv[FILENAMELENGTH];
                    379: FILE  *ficresvpl;
                    380: char fileresvpl[FILENAMELENGTH];
                    381: char title[MAXLINE];
                    382: char optionfile[FILENAMELENGTH], datafile[FILENAMELENGTH],  filerespl[FILENAMELENGTH];
1.117     brouard   383: char plotcmd[FILENAMELENGTH], pplotcmd[FILENAMELENGTH];
1.96      brouard   384: char tmpout[FILENAMELENGTH],  tmpout2[FILENAMELENGTH]; 
1.88      brouard   385: char command[FILENAMELENGTH];
                    386: int  outcmd=0;
1.53      brouard   387: 
                    388: char fileres[FILENAMELENGTH], filerespij[FILENAMELENGTH], filereso[FILENAMELENGTH], rfileres[FILENAMELENGTH];
1.94      brouard   389: 
1.53      brouard   390: char filelog[FILENAMELENGTH]; /* Log file */
                    391: char filerest[FILENAMELENGTH];
                    392: char fileregp[FILENAMELENGTH];
                    393: char popfile[FILENAMELENGTH];
                    394: 
1.91      brouard   395: char optionfilegnuplot[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilehtm[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilehtmcov[FILENAMELENGTH] ;
                    396: 
                    397: struct timeval start_time, end_time, curr_time, last_time, forecast_time;
                    398: struct timezone tzp;
                    399: extern int gettimeofday();
                    400: struct tm tmg, tm, tmf, *gmtime(), *localtime();
                    401: long time_value;
                    402: extern long time();
                    403: char strcurr[80], strfor[80];
1.53      brouard   404: 
1.109     brouard   405: char *endptr;
                    406: long lval;
                    407: 
1.53      brouard   408: #define NR_END 1
                    409: #define FREE_ARG char*
                    410: #define FTOL 1.0e-10
                    411: 
                    412: #define NRANSI 
                    413: #define ITMAX 200 
                    414: 
                    415: #define TOL 2.0e-4 
                    416: 
                    417: #define CGOLD 0.3819660 
                    418: #define ZEPS 1.0e-10 
                    419: #define SHFT(a,b,c,d) (a)=(b);(b)=(c);(c)=(d); 
                    420: 
                    421: #define GOLD 1.618034 
                    422: #define GLIMIT 100.0 
                    423: #define TINY 1.0e-20 
                    424: 
                    425: static double maxarg1,maxarg2;
                    426: #define FMAX(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)>(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))
                    427: #define FMIN(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)<(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))
                    428:   
                    429: #define SIGN(a,b) ((b)>0.0 ? fabs(a) : -fabs(a))
                    430: #define rint(a) floor(a+0.5)
                    431: 
                    432: static double sqrarg;
                    433: #define SQR(a) ((sqrarg=(a)) == 0.0 ? 0.0 :sqrarg*sqrarg)
                    434: #define SWAP(a,b) {temp=(a);(a)=(b);(b)=temp;} 
1.98      brouard   435: int agegomp= AGEGOMP;
1.53      brouard   436: 
                    437: int imx; 
1.98      brouard   438: int stepm=1;
1.53      brouard   439: /* Stepm, step in month: minimum step interpolation*/
                    440: 
                    441: int estepm;
                    442: /* Estepm, step in month to interpolate survival function in order to approximate Life Expectancy*/
                    443: 
                    444: int m,nb;
1.85      brouard   445: long *num;
1.98      brouard   446: int firstpass=0, lastpass=4,*cod, *ncodemax, *Tage,*cens;
1.53      brouard   447: double **agev,*moisnais, *annais, *moisdc, *andc,**mint, **anint;
1.55      lievre    448: double **pmmij, ***probs;
1.98      brouard   449: double *ageexmed,*agecens;
1.53      brouard   450: double dateintmean=0;
                    451: 
                    452: double *weight;
                    453: int **s; /* Status */
                    454: double *agedc, **covar, idx;
                    455: int **nbcode, *Tcode, *Tvar, **codtab, **Tvard, *Tprod, cptcovprod, *Tvaraff;
1.105     lievre    456: double *lsurv, *lpop, *tpop;
1.53      brouard   457: 
                    458: double ftol=FTOL; /* Tolerance for computing Max Likelihood */
                    459: double ftolhess; /* Tolerance for computing hessian */
                    460: 
                    461: /**************** split *************************/
                    462: static int split( char *path, char *dirc, char *name, char *ext, char *finame )
                    463: {
1.107     brouard   464:   /* From a file name with (full) path (either Unix or Windows) we extract the directory (dirc)
1.99      brouard   465:      the name of the file (name), its extension only (ext) and its first part of the name (finame)
                    466:   */ 
1.59      brouard   467:   char *ss;                            /* pointer */
                    468:   int  l1, l2;                         /* length counters */
1.53      brouard   469: 
1.59      brouard   470:   l1 = strlen(path );                  /* length of path */
                    471:   if ( l1 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );
                    472:   ss= strrchr( path, DIRSEPARATOR );           /* find last / */
1.107     brouard   473:   if ( ss == NULL ) {                  /* no directory, so determine current directory */
                    474:     strcpy( name, path );              /* we got the fullname name because no directory */
1.59      brouard   475:     /*if(strrchr(path, ODIRSEPARATOR )==NULL)
                    476:       printf("Warning you should use %s as a separator\n",DIRSEPARATOR);*/
1.74      brouard   477:     /* get current working directory */
                    478:     /*    extern  char* getcwd ( char *buf , int len);*/
1.59      brouard   479:     if ( getcwd( dirc, FILENAME_MAX ) == NULL ) {
                    480:       return( GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD );
                    481:     }
1.107     brouard   482:     /* got dirc from getcwd*/
                    483:     printf(" DIRC = %s \n",dirc);
1.59      brouard   484:   } else {                             /* strip direcotry from path */
                    485:     ss++;                              /* after this, the filename */
                    486:     l2 = strlen( ss );                 /* length of filename */
                    487:     if ( l2 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );
                    488:     strcpy( name, ss );                /* save file name */
                    489:     strncpy( dirc, path, l1 - l2 );    /* now the directory */
                    490:     dirc[l1-l2] = 0;                   /* add zero */
1.107     brouard   491:     printf(" DIRC2 = %s \n",dirc);
1.59      brouard   492:   }
1.107     brouard   493:   /* We add a separator at the end of dirc if not exists */
1.59      brouard   494:   l1 = strlen( dirc );                 /* length of directory */
1.107     brouard   495:   if( dirc[l1-1] != DIRSEPARATOR ){
                    496:     dirc[l1] =  DIRSEPARATOR;
                    497:     dirc[l1+1] = 0; 
                    498:     printf(" DIRC3 = %s \n",dirc);
                    499:   }
1.59      brouard   500:   ss = strrchr( name, '.' );           /* find last / */
1.99      brouard   501:   if (ss >0){
                    502:     ss++;
                    503:     strcpy(ext,ss);                    /* save extension */
                    504:     l1= strlen( name);
                    505:     l2= strlen(ss)+1;
                    506:     strncpy( finame, name, l1-l2);
                    507:     finame[l1-l2]= 0;
                    508:   }
1.107     brouard   509: 
1.59      brouard   510:   return( 0 );                         /* we're done */
1.53      brouard   511: }
                    512: 
                    513: 
                    514: /******************************************/
                    515: 
1.89      brouard   516: void replace_back_to_slash(char *s, char*t)
1.53      brouard   517: {
                    518:   int i;
1.89      brouard   519:   int lg=0;
1.53      brouard   520:   i=0;
                    521:   lg=strlen(t);
                    522:   for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {
                    523:     (s[i] = t[i]);
                    524:     if (t[i]== '\\') s[i]='/';
                    525:   }
                    526: }
                    527: 
                    528: int nbocc(char *s, char occ)
                    529: {
                    530:   int i,j=0;
                    531:   int lg=20;
                    532:   i=0;
                    533:   lg=strlen(s);
                    534:   for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {
                    535:   if  (s[i] == occ ) j++;
                    536:   }
                    537:   return j;
                    538: }
                    539: 
                    540: void cutv(char *u,char *v, char*t, char occ)
                    541: {
1.102     brouard   542:   /* cuts string t into u and v where u ends before first occurence of char 'occ' 
                    543:      and v starts after first occurence of char 'occ' : ex cutv(u,v,"abcdef2ghi2j",'2')
1.53      brouard   544:      gives u="abcedf" and v="ghi2j" */
                    545:   int i,lg,j,p=0;
                    546:   i=0;
                    547:   for(j=0; j<=strlen(t)-1; j++) {
                    548:     if((t[j]!= occ) && (t[j+1]== occ)) p=j+1;
                    549:   }
                    550: 
                    551:   lg=strlen(t);
                    552:   for(j=0; j<p; j++) {
                    553:     (u[j] = t[j]);
                    554:   }
                    555:      u[p]='\0';
                    556: 
                    557:    for(j=0; j<= lg; j++) {
                    558:     if (j>=(p+1))(v[j-p-1] = t[j]);
                    559:   }
                    560: }
                    561: 
                    562: /********************** nrerror ********************/
                    563: 
                    564: void nrerror(char error_text[])
                    565: {
                    566:   fprintf(stderr,"ERREUR ...\n");
                    567:   fprintf(stderr,"%s\n",error_text);
1.59      brouard   568:   exit(EXIT_FAILURE);
1.53      brouard   569: }
                    570: /*********************** vector *******************/
                    571: double *vector(int nl, int nh)
                    572: {
                    573:   double *v;
                    574:   v=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
                    575:   if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in vector");
                    576:   return v-nl+NR_END;
                    577: }
                    578: 
                    579: /************************ free vector ******************/
                    580: void free_vector(double*v, int nl, int nh)
                    581: {
                    582:   free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
                    583: }
                    584: 
                    585: /************************ivector *******************************/
1.85      brouard   586: int *ivector(long nl,long nh)
1.76      brouard   587: {
1.85      brouard   588:   int *v;
                    589:   v=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));
                    590:   if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");
1.76      brouard   591:   return v-nl+NR_END;
                    592: }
                    593: 
                    594: /******************free ivector **************************/
1.85      brouard   595: void free_ivector(int *v, long nl, long nh)
1.76      brouard   596: {
                    597:   free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
                    598: }
                    599: 
1.85      brouard   600: /************************lvector *******************************/
                    601: long *lvector(long nl,long nh)
1.53      brouard   602: {
1.85      brouard   603:   long *v;
                    604:   v=(long *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(long)));
1.53      brouard   605:   if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");
                    606:   return v-nl+NR_END;
                    607: }
                    608: 
1.85      brouard   609: /******************free lvector **************************/
                    610: void free_lvector(long *v, long nl, long nh)
1.53      brouard   611: {
                    612:   free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
                    613: }
                    614: 
                    615: /******************* imatrix *******************************/
                    616: int **imatrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch) 
                    617:      /* allocate a int matrix with subscript range m[nrl..nrh][ncl..nch] */ 
                    618: { 
                    619:   long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1,ncol=nch-ncl+1; 
                    620:   int **m; 
                    621:   
                    622:   /* allocate pointers to rows */ 
                    623:   m=(int **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(int*))); 
                    624:   if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()"); 
                    625:   m += NR_END; 
                    626:   m -= nrl; 
                    627:   
                    628:   
                    629:   /* allocate rows and set pointers to them */ 
                    630:   m[nrl]=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(int))); 
                    631:   if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()"); 
                    632:   m[nrl] += NR_END; 
                    633:   m[nrl] -= ncl; 
                    634:   
                    635:   for(i=nrl+1;i<=nrh;i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol; 
                    636:   
                    637:   /* return pointer to array of pointers to rows */ 
                    638:   return m; 
                    639: } 
                    640: 
                    641: /****************** free_imatrix *************************/
                    642: void free_imatrix(m,nrl,nrh,ncl,nch)
                    643:       int **m;
                    644:       long nch,ncl,nrh,nrl; 
                    645:      /* free an int matrix allocated by imatrix() */ 
                    646: { 
                    647:   free((FREE_ARG) (m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END)); 
                    648:   free((FREE_ARG) (m+nrl-NR_END)); 
                    649: } 
                    650: 
                    651: /******************* matrix *******************************/
                    652: double **matrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)
                    653: {
                    654:   long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1;
                    655:   double **m;
                    656: 
                    657:   m=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));
                    658:   if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");
                    659:   m += NR_END;
                    660:   m -= nrl;
                    661: 
                    662:   m[nrl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
                    663:   if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");
                    664:   m[nrl] += NR_END;
                    665:   m[nrl] -= ncl;
                    666: 
                    667:   for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;
                    668:   return m;
1.85      brouard   669:   /* print *(*(m+1)+70) or print m[1][70]; print m+1 or print &(m[1]) 
1.74      brouard   670:    */
1.53      brouard   671: }
                    672: 
                    673: /*************************free matrix ************************/
                    674: void free_matrix(double **m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)
                    675: {
                    676:   free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));
                    677:   free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));
                    678: }
                    679: 
                    680: /******************* ma3x *******************************/
                    681: double ***ma3x(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long nll, long nlh)
                    682: {
                    683:   long i, j, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1, nlay=nlh-nll+1;
                    684:   double ***m;
                    685: 
                    686:   m=(double ***) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));
                    687:   if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");
                    688:   m += NR_END;
                    689:   m -= nrl;
                    690: 
                    691:   m[nrl]=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
                    692:   if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");
                    693:   m[nrl] += NR_END;
                    694:   m[nrl] -= ncl;
                    695: 
                    696:   for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;
                    697: 
                    698:   m[nrl][ncl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol*nlay+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
                    699:   if (!m[nrl][ncl]) nrerror("allocation failure 3 in matrix()");
                    700:   m[nrl][ncl] += NR_END;
                    701:   m[nrl][ncl] -= nll;
                    702:   for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++) 
                    703:     m[nrl][j]=m[nrl][j-1]+nlay;
                    704:   
                    705:   for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) {
                    706:     m[i][ncl]=m[i-1l][ncl]+ncol*nlay;
                    707:     for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++) 
                    708:       m[i][j]=m[i][j-1]+nlay;
                    709:   }
1.74      brouard   710:   return m; 
                    711:   /*  gdb: p *(m+1) <=> p m[1] and p (m+1) <=> p (m+1) <=> p &(m[1])
                    712:            &(m[i][j][k]) <=> *((*(m+i) + j)+k)
                    713:   */
1.53      brouard   714: }
                    715: 
                    716: /*************************free ma3x ************************/
                    717: void free_ma3x(double ***m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch,long nll, long nlh)
                    718: {
                    719:   free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl][ncl]+ nll-NR_END));
                    720:   free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));
                    721:   free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));
                    722: }
                    723: 
1.94      brouard   724: /*************** function subdirf ***********/
                    725: char *subdirf(char fileres[])
                    726: {
                    727:   /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
                    728:   strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
                    729:   strcat(tmpout,"/"); /* Add to the right */
                    730:   strcat(tmpout,fileres);
                    731:   return tmpout;
                    732: }
                    733: 
                    734: /*************** function subdirf2 ***********/
                    735: char *subdirf2(char fileres[], char *preop)
                    736: {
                    737:   
                    738:   /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
                    739:   strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
                    740:   strcat(tmpout,"/");
                    741:   strcat(tmpout,preop);
                    742:   strcat(tmpout,fileres);
                    743:   return tmpout;
                    744: }
                    745: 
                    746: /*************** function subdirf3 ***********/
                    747: char *subdirf3(char fileres[], char *preop, char *preop2)
                    748: {
                    749:   
                    750:   /* Caution optionfilefiname is hidden */
                    751:   strcpy(tmpout,optionfilefiname);
                    752:   strcat(tmpout,"/");
                    753:   strcat(tmpout,preop);
                    754:   strcat(tmpout,preop2);
                    755:   strcat(tmpout,fileres);
                    756:   return tmpout;
                    757: }
                    758: 
1.53      brouard   759: /***************** f1dim *************************/
                    760: extern int ncom; 
                    761: extern double *pcom,*xicom;
                    762: extern double (*nrfunc)(double []); 
                    763:  
                    764: double f1dim(double x) 
                    765: { 
                    766:   int j; 
                    767:   double f;
                    768:   double *xt; 
                    769:  
                    770:   xt=vector(1,ncom); 
                    771:   for (j=1;j<=ncom;j++) xt[j]=pcom[j]+x*xicom[j]; 
                    772:   f=(*nrfunc)(xt); 
                    773:   free_vector(xt,1,ncom); 
                    774:   return f; 
                    775: } 
                    776: 
                    777: /*****************brent *************************/
                    778: double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx, double (*f)(double), double tol,         double *xmin) 
                    779: { 
                    780:   int iter; 
                    781:   double a,b,d,etemp;
                    782:   double fu,fv,fw,fx;
                    783:   double ftemp;
                    784:   double p,q,r,tol1,tol2,u,v,w,x,xm; 
                    785:   double e=0.0; 
                    786:  
                    787:   a=(ax < cx ? ax : cx); 
                    788:   b=(ax > cx ? ax : cx); 
                    789:   x=w=v=bx; 
                    790:   fw=fv=fx=(*f)(x); 
                    791:   for (iter=1;iter<=ITMAX;iter++) { 
                    792:     xm=0.5*(a+b); 
                    793:     tol2=2.0*(tol1=tol*fabs(x)+ZEPS); 
                    794:     /*         if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret)))*/
                    795:     printf(".");fflush(stdout);
                    796:     fprintf(ficlog,".");fflush(ficlog);
                    797: #ifdef DEBUG
                    798:     printf("br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);
                    799:     fprintf(ficlog,"br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);
                    800:     /*         if ((fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a)))||(2.0*fabs(fu-ftemp) <= ftol*1.e-2*(fabs(fu)+fabs(ftemp)))) { */
                    801: #endif
                    802:     if (fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a))){ 
                    803:       *xmin=x; 
                    804:       return fx; 
                    805:     } 
                    806:     ftemp=fu;
                    807:     if (fabs(e) > tol1) { 
                    808:       r=(x-w)*(fx-fv); 
                    809:       q=(x-v)*(fx-fw); 
                    810:       p=(x-v)*q-(x-w)*r; 
                    811:       q=2.0*(q-r); 
                    812:       if (q > 0.0) p = -p; 
                    813:       q=fabs(q); 
                    814:       etemp=e; 
                    815:       e=d; 
                    816:       if (fabs(p) >= fabs(0.5*q*etemp) || p <= q*(a-x) || p >= q*(b-x)) 
                    817:        d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x)); 
                    818:       else { 
                    819:        d=p/q; 
                    820:        u=x+d; 
                    821:        if (u-a < tol2 || b-u < tol2) 
                    822:          d=SIGN(tol1,xm-x); 
                    823:       } 
                    824:     } else { 
                    825:       d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x)); 
                    826:     } 
                    827:     u=(fabs(d) >= tol1 ? x+d : x+SIGN(tol1,d)); 
                    828:     fu=(*f)(u); 
                    829:     if (fu <= fx) { 
                    830:       if (u >= x) a=x; else b=x; 
                    831:       SHFT(v,w,x,u) 
                    832:        SHFT(fv,fw,fx,fu) 
                    833:        } else { 
                    834:          if (u < x) a=u; else b=u; 
                    835:          if (fu <= fw || w == x) { 
                    836:            v=w; 
                    837:            w=u; 
                    838:            fv=fw; 
                    839:            fw=fu; 
                    840:          } else if (fu <= fv || v == x || v == w) { 
                    841:            v=u; 
                    842:            fv=fu; 
                    843:          } 
                    844:        } 
                    845:   } 
                    846:   nrerror("Too many iterations in brent"); 
                    847:   *xmin=x; 
                    848:   return fx; 
                    849: } 
                    850: 
                    851: /****************** mnbrak ***********************/
                    852: 
                    853: void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb, double *fc, 
                    854:            double (*func)(double)) 
                    855: { 
                    856:   double ulim,u,r,q, dum;
                    857:   double fu; 
                    858:  
                    859:   *fa=(*func)(*ax); 
                    860:   *fb=(*func)(*bx); 
                    861:   if (*fb > *fa) { 
                    862:     SHFT(dum,*ax,*bx,dum) 
                    863:       SHFT(dum,*fb,*fa,dum) 
                    864:       } 
                    865:   *cx=(*bx)+GOLD*(*bx-*ax); 
                    866:   *fc=(*func)(*cx); 
                    867:   while (*fb > *fc) { 
                    868:     r=(*bx-*ax)*(*fb-*fc); 
                    869:     q=(*bx-*cx)*(*fb-*fa); 
                    870:     u=(*bx)-((*bx-*cx)*q-(*bx-*ax)*r)/ 
                    871:       (2.0*SIGN(FMAX(fabs(q-r),TINY),q-r)); 
                    872:     ulim=(*bx)+GLIMIT*(*cx-*bx); 
                    873:     if ((*bx-u)*(u-*cx) > 0.0) { 
                    874:       fu=(*func)(u); 
                    875:     } else if ((*cx-u)*(u-ulim) > 0.0) { 
                    876:       fu=(*func)(u); 
                    877:       if (fu < *fc) { 
                    878:        SHFT(*bx,*cx,u,*cx+GOLD*(*cx-*bx)) 
                    879:          SHFT(*fb,*fc,fu,(*func)(u)) 
                    880:          } 
                    881:     } else if ((u-ulim)*(ulim-*cx) >= 0.0) { 
                    882:       u=ulim; 
                    883:       fu=(*func)(u); 
                    884:     } else { 
                    885:       u=(*cx)+GOLD*(*cx-*bx); 
                    886:       fu=(*func)(u); 
                    887:     } 
                    888:     SHFT(*ax,*bx,*cx,u) 
                    889:       SHFT(*fa,*fb,*fc,fu) 
                    890:       } 
                    891: } 
                    892: 
                    893: /*************** linmin ************************/
                    894: 
                    895: int ncom; 
                    896: double *pcom,*xicom;
                    897: double (*nrfunc)(double []); 
                    898:  
                    899: void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,double (*func)(double [])) 
                    900: { 
                    901:   double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx, 
                    902:               double (*f)(double), double tol, double *xmin); 
                    903:   double f1dim(double x); 
                    904:   void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb, 
                    905:              double *fc, double (*func)(double)); 
                    906:   int j; 
                    907:   double xx,xmin,bx,ax; 
                    908:   double fx,fb,fa;
                    909:  
                    910:   ncom=n; 
                    911:   pcom=vector(1,n); 
                    912:   xicom=vector(1,n); 
                    913:   nrfunc=func; 
                    914:   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
                    915:     pcom[j]=p[j]; 
                    916:     xicom[j]=xi[j]; 
                    917:   } 
                    918:   ax=0.0; 
                    919:   xx=1.0; 
                    920:   mnbrak(&ax,&xx,&bx,&fa,&fx,&fb,f1dim); 
                    921:   *fret=brent(ax,xx,bx,f1dim,TOL,&xmin); 
                    922: #ifdef DEBUG
                    923:   printf("retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);
                    924:   fprintf(ficlog,"retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);
                    925: #endif
                    926:   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
                    927:     xi[j] *= xmin; 
                    928:     p[j] += xi[j]; 
                    929:   } 
                    930:   free_vector(xicom,1,n); 
                    931:   free_vector(pcom,1,n); 
                    932: } 
                    933: 
1.91      brouard   934: char *asc_diff_time(long time_sec, char ascdiff[])
                    935: {
                    936:   long sec_left, days, hours, minutes;
                    937:   days = (time_sec) / (60*60*24);
                    938:   sec_left = (time_sec) % (60*60*24);
                    939:   hours = (sec_left) / (60*60) ;
                    940:   sec_left = (sec_left) %(60*60);
                    941:   minutes = (sec_left) /60;
                    942:   sec_left = (sec_left) % (60);
                    943:   sprintf(ascdiff,"%d day(s) %d hour(s) %d minute(s) %d second(s)",days, hours, minutes, sec_left);  
                    944:   return ascdiff;
                    945: }
                    946: 
1.53      brouard   947: /*************** powell ************************/
                    948: void powell(double p[], double **xi, int n, double ftol, int *iter, double *fret, 
                    949:            double (*func)(double [])) 
                    950: { 
                    951:   void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret, 
                    952:              double (*func)(double [])); 
                    953:   int i,ibig,j; 
                    954:   double del,t,*pt,*ptt,*xit;
                    955:   double fp,fptt;
                    956:   double *xits;
1.91      brouard   957:   int niterf, itmp;
                    958: 
1.53      brouard   959:   pt=vector(1,n); 
                    960:   ptt=vector(1,n); 
                    961:   xit=vector(1,n); 
                    962:   xits=vector(1,n); 
                    963:   *fret=(*func)(p); 
                    964:   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) pt[j]=p[j]; 
                    965:   for (*iter=1;;++(*iter)) { 
                    966:     fp=(*fret); 
                    967:     ibig=0; 
                    968:     del=0.0; 
1.91      brouard   969:     last_time=curr_time;
                    970:     (void) gettimeofday(&curr_time,&tzp);
                    971:     printf("\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f %ld sec. %ld sec.",*iter,*fret, curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec, curr_time.tv_sec-start_time.tv_sec);fflush(stdout);
1.98      brouard   972:     /*    fprintf(ficlog,"\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f %ld sec. %ld sec.",*iter,*fret, curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec, curr_time.tv_sec-start_time.tv_sec);
1.91      brouard   973:     fprintf(ficrespow,"%d %.12f %ld",*iter,*fret,curr_time.tv_sec-start_time.tv_sec);
1.98      brouard   974:     */
                    975:    for (i=1;i<=n;i++) {
1.53      brouard   976:       printf(" %d %.12f",i, p[i]);
1.76      brouard   977:       fprintf(ficlog," %d %.12lf",i, p[i]);
                    978:       fprintf(ficrespow," %.12lf", p[i]);
                    979:     }
1.53      brouard   980:     printf("\n");
                    981:     fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
1.91      brouard   982:     fprintf(ficrespow,"\n");fflush(ficrespow);
                    983:     if(*iter <=3){
                    984:       tm = *localtime(&curr_time.tv_sec);
1.101     brouard   985:       strcpy(strcurr,asctime(&tm));
1.92      brouard   986: /*       asctime_r(&tm,strcurr); */
1.101     brouard   987:       forecast_time=curr_time; 
1.91      brouard   988:       itmp = strlen(strcurr);
1.101     brouard   989:       if(strcurr[itmp-1]=='\n')  /* Windows outputs with a new line */
1.91      brouard   990:        strcurr[itmp-1]='\0';
                    991:       printf("\nConsidering the time needed for this last iteration #%d: %ld seconds,\n",*iter,curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec);
                    992:       fprintf(ficlog,"\nConsidering the time needed for this last iteration #%d: %ld seconds,\n",*iter,curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec);
                    993:       for(niterf=10;niterf<=30;niterf+=10){
                    994:        forecast_time.tv_sec=curr_time.tv_sec+(niterf-*iter)*(curr_time.tv_sec-last_time.tv_sec);
                    995:        tmf = *localtime(&forecast_time.tv_sec);
1.92      brouard   996: /*     asctime_r(&tmf,strfor); */
                    997:        strcpy(strfor,asctime(&tmf));
1.91      brouard   998:        itmp = strlen(strfor);
                    999:        if(strfor[itmp-1]=='\n')
                   1000:        strfor[itmp-1]='\0';
1.101     brouard  1001:        printf("   - if your program needs %d iterations to converge, convergence will be \n   reached in %s i.e.\n   on %s (current time is %s);\n",niterf, asc_diff_time(forecast_time.tv_sec-curr_time.tv_sec,tmpout),strfor,strcurr);
                   1002:        fprintf(ficlog,"   - if your program needs %d iterations to converge, convergence will be \n   reached in %s i.e.\n   on %s (current time is %s);\n",niterf, asc_diff_time(forecast_time.tv_sec-curr_time.tv_sec,tmpout),strfor,strcurr);
1.91      brouard  1003:       }
                   1004:     }
1.53      brouard  1005:     for (i=1;i<=n;i++) { 
                   1006:       for (j=1;j<=n;j++) xit[j]=xi[j][i]; 
                   1007:       fptt=(*fret); 
                   1008: #ifdef DEBUG
                   1009:       printf("fret=%lf \n",*fret);
                   1010:       fprintf(ficlog,"fret=%lf \n",*fret);
                   1011: #endif
                   1012:       printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);
                   1013:       fprintf(ficlog,"%d",i);fflush(ficlog);
                   1014:       linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func); 
                   1015:       if (fabs(fptt-(*fret)) > del) { 
                   1016:        del=fabs(fptt-(*fret)); 
                   1017:        ibig=i; 
                   1018:       } 
                   1019: #ifdef DEBUG
                   1020:       printf("%d %.12e",i,(*fret));
                   1021:       fprintf(ficlog,"%d %.12e",i,(*fret));
                   1022:       for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
                   1023:        xits[j]=FMAX(fabs(p[j]-pt[j]),1.e-5);
                   1024:        printf(" x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);
                   1025:        fprintf(ficlog," x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);
                   1026:       }
                   1027:       for(j=1;j<=n;j++) {
                   1028:        printf(" p=%.12e",p[j]);
                   1029:        fprintf(ficlog," p=%.12e",p[j]);
                   1030:       }
                   1031:       printf("\n");
                   1032:       fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
                   1033: #endif
                   1034:     } 
                   1035:     if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret))) {
                   1036: #ifdef DEBUG
                   1037:       int k[2],l;
                   1038:       k[0]=1;
                   1039:       k[1]=-1;
                   1040:       printf("Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));
                   1041:       fprintf(ficlog,"Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));
                   1042:       for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
                   1043:        printf(" %.12e",p[j]);
                   1044:        fprintf(ficlog," %.12e",p[j]);
                   1045:       }
                   1046:       printf("\n");
                   1047:       fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
                   1048:       for(l=0;l<=1;l++) {
                   1049:        for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
                   1050:          ptt[j]=p[j]+(p[j]-pt[j])*k[l];
                   1051:          printf("l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);
                   1052:          fprintf(ficlog,"l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);
                   1053:        }
                   1054:        printf("func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));
                   1055:        fprintf(ficlog,"func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));
                   1056:       }
                   1057: #endif
                   1058: 
                   1059: 
                   1060:       free_vector(xit,1,n); 
                   1061:       free_vector(xits,1,n); 
                   1062:       free_vector(ptt,1,n); 
                   1063:       free_vector(pt,1,n); 
                   1064:       return; 
                   1065:     } 
                   1066:     if (*iter == ITMAX) nrerror("powell exceeding maximum iterations."); 
                   1067:     for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
                   1068:       ptt[j]=2.0*p[j]-pt[j]; 
                   1069:       xit[j]=p[j]-pt[j]; 
                   1070:       pt[j]=p[j]; 
                   1071:     } 
                   1072:     fptt=(*func)(ptt); 
                   1073:     if (fptt < fp) { 
                   1074:       t=2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del)-del*SQR(fp-fptt); 
                   1075:       if (t < 0.0) { 
                   1076:        linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func); 
                   1077:        for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
                   1078:          xi[j][ibig]=xi[j][n]; 
                   1079:          xi[j][n]=xit[j]; 
                   1080:        }
                   1081: #ifdef DEBUG
                   1082:        printf("Direction changed  last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);
                   1083:        fprintf(ficlog,"Direction changed  last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);
                   1084:        for(j=1;j<=n;j++){
                   1085:          printf(" %.12e",xit[j]);
                   1086:          fprintf(ficlog," %.12e",xit[j]);
                   1087:        }
                   1088:        printf("\n");
                   1089:        fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
                   1090: #endif
1.54      brouard  1091:       }
1.53      brouard  1092:     } 
                   1093:   } 
                   1094: } 
                   1095: 
1.117     brouard  1096: /**** Prevalence limit (stable or period prevalence)  ****************/
1.53      brouard  1097: 
                   1098: double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double x[], double age, double **oldm, double **savm, double ftolpl, int ij)
                   1099: {
                   1100:   /* Computes the prevalence limit in each live state at age x by left multiplying the unit
                   1101:      matrix by transitions matrix until convergence is reached */
                   1102: 
                   1103:   int i, ii,j,k;
                   1104:   double min, max, maxmin, maxmax,sumnew=0.;
                   1105:   double **matprod2();
                   1106:   double **out, cov[NCOVMAX], **pmij();
                   1107:   double **newm;
                   1108:   double agefin, delaymax=50 ; /* Max number of years to converge */
                   1109: 
                   1110:   for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
                   1111:     for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
                   1112:       oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
                   1113:     }
                   1114: 
                   1115:    cov[1]=1.;
                   1116:  
                   1117:  /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */
                   1118:   for(agefin=age-stepm/YEARM; agefin>=age-delaymax; agefin=agefin-stepm/YEARM){
                   1119:     newm=savm;
                   1120:     /* Covariates have to be included here again */
                   1121:      cov[2]=agefin;
                   1122:   
                   1123:       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {
                   1124:        cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];
                   1125:        /*      printf("ij=%d k=%d Tvar[k]=%d nbcode=%d cov=%lf codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]=%d \n",ij,k, Tvar[k],nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]],cov[2+k], codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]);*/
                   1126:       }
                   1127:       for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];
                   1128:       for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)
                   1129:        cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];
                   1130: 
                   1131:       /*printf("ij=%d cptcovprod=%d tvar=%d ", ij, cptcovprod, Tvar[1]);*/
                   1132:       /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf cov[4]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3],cov[4]);*/
                   1133:       /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3]);*/
                   1134:     out=matprod2(newm, pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate),1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm);
                   1135: 
                   1136:     savm=oldm;
                   1137:     oldm=newm;
                   1138:     maxmax=0.;
                   1139:     for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++){
                   1140:       min=1.;
                   1141:       max=0.;
                   1142:       for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++) {
                   1143:        sumnew=0;
                   1144:        for(k=1; k<=ndeath; k++) sumnew+=newm[i][nlstate+k];
                   1145:        prlim[i][j]= newm[i][j]/(1-sumnew);
                   1146:        max=FMAX(max,prlim[i][j]);
                   1147:        min=FMIN(min,prlim[i][j]);
                   1148:       }
                   1149:       maxmin=max-min;
                   1150:       maxmax=FMAX(maxmax,maxmin);
                   1151:     }
                   1152:     if(maxmax < ftolpl){
                   1153:       return prlim;
                   1154:     }
                   1155:   }
                   1156: }
                   1157: 
                   1158: /*************** transition probabilities ***************/ 
                   1159: 
                   1160: double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate )
                   1161: {
                   1162:   double s1, s2;
                   1163:   /*double t34;*/
                   1164:   int i,j,j1, nc, ii, jj;
                   1165: 
                   1166:     for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
1.99      brouard  1167:       for(j=1; j<i;j++){
                   1168:        for (nc=1, s2=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
                   1169:          /*s2 += param[i][j][nc]*cov[nc];*/
                   1170:          s2 += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-1)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
                   1171: /*      printf("Int j<i s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e\n",s1,s2); */
                   1172:        }
                   1173:        ps[i][j]=s2;
                   1174: /*     printf("s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e\n",s1,s2); */
                   1175:       }
                   1176:       for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
                   1177:        for (nc=1, s2=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
                   1178:          s2 += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-2)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
                   1179: /*       printf("Int j>i s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e %lx %lx\n",s1,s2,s1,s2); */
                   1180:        }
                   1181:        ps[i][j]=s2;
1.53      brouard  1182:       }
                   1183:     }
                   1184:     /*ps[3][2]=1;*/
1.99      brouard  1185:     
                   1186:     for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
                   1187:       s1=0;
                   1188:       for(j=1; j<i; j++)
                   1189:        s1+=exp(ps[i][j]);
                   1190:       for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)
                   1191:        s1+=exp(ps[i][j]);
                   1192:       ps[i][i]=1./(s1+1.);
                   1193:       for(j=1; j<i; j++)
                   1194:        ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
                   1195:       for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)
                   1196:        ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
                   1197:       /* ps[i][nlstate+1]=1.-s1- ps[i][i];*/ /* Sum should be 1 */
                   1198:     } /* end i */
                   1199:     
                   1200:     for(ii=nlstate+1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){
                   1201:       for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
                   1202:        ps[ii][jj]=0;
                   1203:        ps[ii][ii]=1;
                   1204:       }
1.53      brouard  1205:     }
1.99      brouard  1206:     
1.53      brouard  1207: 
1.99      brouard  1208: /*        for(ii=1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){ */
                   1209: /*      for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){ */
                   1210: /*        printf("ddd %lf ",ps[ii][jj]); */
                   1211: /*      } */
                   1212: /*      printf("\n "); */
                   1213: /*        } */
                   1214: /*        printf("\n ");printf("%lf ",cov[2]); */
                   1215:        /*
                   1216:       for(i=1; i<= npar; i++) printf("%f ",x[i]);
                   1217:       goto end;*/
1.53      brouard  1218:     return ps;
                   1219: }
                   1220: 
                   1221: /**************** Product of 2 matrices ******************/
                   1222: 
                   1223: double **matprod2(double **out, double **in,long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long ncolol, long ncoloh, double **b)
                   1224: {
                   1225:   /* Computes the matrix product of in(1,nrh-nrl+1)(1,nch-ncl+1) times
                   1226:      b(1,nch-ncl+1)(1,ncoloh-ncolol+1) into out(...) */
                   1227:   /* in, b, out are matrice of pointers which should have been initialized 
                   1228:      before: only the contents of out is modified. The function returns
                   1229:      a pointer to pointers identical to out */
                   1230:   long i, j, k;
                   1231:   for(i=nrl; i<= nrh; i++)
                   1232:     for(k=ncolol; k<=ncoloh; k++)
                   1233:       for(j=ncl,out[i][k]=0.; j<=nch; j++)
                   1234:        out[i][k] +=in[i][j]*b[j][k];
                   1235: 
                   1236:   return out;
                   1237: }
                   1238: 
                   1239: 
                   1240: /************* Higher Matrix Product ***************/
                   1241: 
                   1242: double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstepm, double age, int hstepm, double *x, int nlstate, int stepm, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij )
                   1243: {
1.66      brouard  1244:   /* Computes the transition matrix starting at age 'age' over 
                   1245:      'nhstepm*hstepm*stepm' months (i.e. until
                   1246:      age (in years)  age+nhstepm*hstepm*stepm/12) by multiplying 
                   1247:      nhstepm*hstepm matrices. 
1.53      brouard  1248:      Output is stored in matrix po[i][j][h] for h every 'hstepm' step 
1.66      brouard  1249:      (typically every 2 years instead of every month which is too big 
                   1250:      for the memory).
1.53      brouard  1251:      Model is determined by parameters x and covariates have to be 
                   1252:      included manually here. 
                   1253: 
                   1254:      */
                   1255: 
                   1256:   int i, j, d, h, k;
                   1257:   double **out, cov[NCOVMAX];
                   1258:   double **newm;
                   1259: 
                   1260:   /* Hstepm could be zero and should return the unit matrix */
                   1261:   for (i=1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)
                   1262:     for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
                   1263:       oldm[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
                   1264:       po[i][j][0]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
                   1265:     }
                   1266:   /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */
                   1267:   for(h=1; h <=nhstepm; h++){
                   1268:     for(d=1; d <=hstepm; d++){
                   1269:       newm=savm;
                   1270:       /* Covariates have to be included here again */
                   1271:       cov[1]=1.;
                   1272:       cov[2]=age+((h-1)*hstepm + (d-1))*stepm/YEARM;
                   1273:       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];
                   1274:       for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++)
                   1275:        cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];
                   1276:       for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)
                   1277:        cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];
                   1278: 
                   1279: 
                   1280:       /*printf("hxi cptcov=%d cptcode=%d\n",cptcov,cptcode);*/
                   1281:       /*printf("h=%d d=%d age=%f cov=%f\n",h,d,age,cov[2]);*/
                   1282:       out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, 
                   1283:                   pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
                   1284:       savm=oldm;
                   1285:       oldm=newm;
                   1286:     }
                   1287:     for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)
                   1288:       for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
                   1289:        po[i][j][h]=newm[i][j];
                   1290:        /*printf("i=%d j=%d h=%d po[i][j][h]=%f ",i,j,h,po[i][j][h]);
                   1291:         */
                   1292:       }
                   1293:   } /* end h */
                   1294:   return po;
                   1295: }
                   1296: 
                   1297: 
                   1298: /*************** log-likelihood *************/
                   1299: double func( double *x)
                   1300: {
                   1301:   int i, ii, j, k, mi, d, kk;
                   1302:   double l, ll[NLSTATEMAX], cov[NCOVMAX];
                   1303:   double **out;
                   1304:   double sw; /* Sum of weights */
                   1305:   double lli; /* Individual log likelihood */
1.59      brouard  1306:   int s1, s2;
1.68      lievre   1307:   double bbh, survp;
1.53      brouard  1308:   long ipmx;
                   1309:   /*extern weight */
                   1310:   /* We are differentiating ll according to initial status */
                   1311:   /*  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) printf("%f ", x[i]);*/
                   1312:   /*for(i=1;i<imx;i++) 
                   1313:     printf(" %d\n",s[4][i]);
                   1314:   */
                   1315:   cov[1]=1.;
                   1316: 
                   1317:   for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) ll[k]=0.;
1.61      brouard  1318: 
                   1319:   if(mle==1){
                   1320:     for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
                   1321:       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
                   1322:       for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
                   1323:        for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
                   1324:          for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
                   1325:            oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
                   1326:            savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
                   1327:          }
                   1328:        for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
                   1329:          newm=savm;
                   1330:          cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
                   1331:          for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
                   1332:            cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
                   1333:          }
                   1334:          out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
                   1335:                       1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
                   1336:          savm=oldm;
                   1337:          oldm=newm;
                   1338:        } /* end mult */
1.53      brouard  1339:       
1.61      brouard  1340:        /*lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]);*/ /* Original formula */
1.101     brouard  1341:        /* But now since version 0.9 we anticipate for bias at large stepm.
1.61      brouard  1342:         * If stepm is larger than one month (smallest stepm) and if the exact delay 
                   1343:         * (in months) between two waves is not a multiple of stepm, we rounded to 
                   1344:         * the nearest (and in case of equal distance, to the lowest) interval but now
                   1345:         * we keep into memory the bias bh[mi][i] and also the previous matrix product
1.101     brouard  1346:         * (i.e to dh[mi][i]-1) saved in 'savm'. Then we inter(extra)polate the
1.61      brouard  1347:         * probability in order to take into account the bias as a fraction of the way
1.101     brouard  1348:         * from savm to out if bh is negative or even beyond if bh is positive. bh varies
1.61      brouard  1349:         * -stepm/2 to stepm/2 .
                   1350:         * For stepm=1 the results are the same as for previous versions of Imach.
                   1351:         * For stepm > 1 the results are less biased than in previous versions. 
                   1352:         */
                   1353:        s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
                   1354:        s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
1.64      lievre   1355:        bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm; 
1.101     brouard  1356:        /* bias bh is positive if real duration
1.64      lievre   1357:         * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
                   1358:         */
                   1359:        /* lli= (savm[s1][s2]>1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]));*/
1.71      brouard  1360:        if( s2 > nlstate){ 
1.104     lievre   1361:          /* i.e. if s2 is a death state and if the date of death is known 
                   1362:             then the contribution to the likelihood is the probability to 
                   1363:             die between last step unit time and current  step unit time, 
                   1364:             which is also equal to probability to die before dh 
1.101     brouard  1365:             minus probability to die before dh-stepm . 
1.71      brouard  1366:             In version up to 0.92 likelihood was computed
                   1367:        as if date of death was unknown. Death was treated as any other
                   1368:        health state: the date of the interview describes the actual state
                   1369:        and not the date of a change in health state. The former idea was
                   1370:        to consider that at each interview the state was recorded
                   1371:        (healthy, disable or death) and IMaCh was corrected; but when we
                   1372:        introduced the exact date of death then we should have modified
                   1373:        the contribution of an exact death to the likelihood. This new
                   1374:        contribution is smaller and very dependent of the step unit
                   1375:        stepm. It is no more the probability to die between last interview
                   1376:        and month of death but the probability to survive from last
                   1377:        interview up to one month before death multiplied by the
                   1378:        probability to die within a month. Thanks to Chris
                   1379:        Jackson for correcting this bug.  Former versions increased
                   1380:        mortality artificially. The bad side is that we add another loop
                   1381:        which slows down the processing. The difference can be up to 10%
                   1382:        lower mortality.
                   1383:          */
                   1384:          lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
1.104     lievre   1385: 
                   1386: 
                   1387:        } else if  (s2==-2) {
                   1388:          for (j=1,survp=0. ; j<=nlstate; j++) 
1.120   ! lievre   1389:            survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
        !          1390:          /*survp += out[s1][j]; */
1.119     brouard  1391:          lli= log(survp);
1.104     lievre   1392:        }
1.105     lievre   1393:        
1.120   ! lievre   1394:        else if  (s2==-4) { 
        !          1395:          for (j=3,survp=0. ; j<=nlstate; j++)  
        !          1396:            survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
        !          1397:          lli= log(survp); 
        !          1398:        } 
        !          1399: 
        !          1400:        else if  (s2==-5) { 
        !          1401:          for (j=1,survp=0. ; j<=2; j++)  
        !          1402:            survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
        !          1403:          lli= log(survp); 
        !          1404:        } 
1.105     lievre   1405:        
1.104     lievre   1406:        else{
1.71      brouard  1407:          lli= log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]); /* linear interpolation */
                   1408:          /*  lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*(savm[s1][s2])):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]));*/ /* linear interpolation */
                   1409:        } 
1.64      lievre   1410:        /*lli=(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]);*/
                   1411:        /*if(lli ==000.0)*/
                   1412:        /*printf("bbh= %f lli=%f savm=%f out=%f %d\n",bbh,lli,savm[s1][s2], out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]],i); */
1.71      brouard  1413:        ipmx +=1;
1.64      lievre   1414:        sw += weight[i];
                   1415:        ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
                   1416:       } /* end of wave */
                   1417:     } /* end of individual */
                   1418:   }  else if(mle==2){
                   1419:     for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
                   1420:       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
                   1421:       for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
                   1422:        for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
                   1423:          for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
                   1424:            oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
                   1425:            savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
                   1426:          }
                   1427:        for(d=0; d<=dh[mi][i]; d++){
                   1428:          newm=savm;
                   1429:          cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
                   1430:          for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
                   1431:            cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
                   1432:          }
                   1433:          out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
                   1434:                       1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
                   1435:          savm=oldm;
                   1436:          oldm=newm;
                   1437:        } /* end mult */
                   1438:       
                   1439:        s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
                   1440:        s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
                   1441:        bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm; 
1.63      lievre   1442:        lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*(savm[s1][s2])):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* linear interpolation */
1.64      lievre   1443:        ipmx +=1;
                   1444:        sw += weight[i];
                   1445:        ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
                   1446:       } /* end of wave */
                   1447:     } /* end of individual */
                   1448:   }  else if(mle==3){  /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
                   1449:     for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
                   1450:       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
                   1451:       for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
                   1452:        for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
                   1453:          for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
                   1454:            oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
                   1455:            savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
                   1456:          }
                   1457:        for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
                   1458:          newm=savm;
                   1459:          cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
                   1460:          for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
                   1461:            cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
                   1462:          }
                   1463:          out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
                   1464:                       1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
                   1465:          savm=oldm;
                   1466:          oldm=newm;
                   1467:        } /* end mult */
                   1468:       
                   1469:        s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
                   1470:        s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
                   1471:        bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm; 
                   1472:        lli= (savm[s1][s2]>1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
1.61      brouard  1473:        ipmx +=1;
                   1474:        sw += weight[i];
                   1475:        ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
                   1476:       } /* end of wave */
                   1477:     } /* end of individual */
1.84      brouard  1478:   }else if (mle==4){  /* ml=4 no inter-extrapolation */
1.61      brouard  1479:     for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
                   1480:       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
                   1481:       for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
                   1482:        for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
                   1483:          for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
                   1484:            oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
                   1485:            savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
                   1486:          }
                   1487:        for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
                   1488:          newm=savm;
                   1489:          cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
                   1490:          for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
                   1491:            cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
                   1492:          }
                   1493:        
                   1494:          out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
                   1495:                       1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
                   1496:          savm=oldm;
                   1497:          oldm=newm;
                   1498:        } /* end mult */
                   1499:       
1.84      brouard  1500:        s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
                   1501:        s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
                   1502:        if( s2 > nlstate){ 
                   1503:          lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
                   1504:        }else{
                   1505:          lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]); /* Original formula */
                   1506:        }
                   1507:        ipmx +=1;
                   1508:        sw += weight[i];
                   1509:        ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
1.85      brouard  1510: /*     printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
1.84      brouard  1511:       } /* end of wave */
                   1512:     } /* end of individual */
                   1513:   }else{  /* ml=5 no inter-extrapolation no jackson =0.8a */
                   1514:     for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
                   1515:       for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
                   1516:       for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
                   1517:        for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
                   1518:          for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
                   1519:            oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
                   1520:            savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
                   1521:          }
                   1522:        for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
                   1523:          newm=savm;
                   1524:          cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
                   1525:          for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
                   1526:            cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
                   1527:          }
                   1528:        
                   1529:          out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
                   1530:                       1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
                   1531:          savm=oldm;
                   1532:          oldm=newm;
                   1533:        } /* end mult */
                   1534:       
                   1535:        s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
                   1536:        s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
1.61      brouard  1537:        lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]); /* Original formula */
                   1538:        ipmx +=1;
                   1539:        sw += weight[i];
                   1540:        ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
1.84      brouard  1541:        /*printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]);*/
1.61      brouard  1542:       } /* end of wave */
                   1543:     } /* end of individual */
                   1544:   } /* End of if */
1.53      brouard  1545:   for(k=1,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++) l += ll[k];
                   1546:   /* printf("l1=%f l2=%f ",ll[1],ll[2]); */
                   1547:   l= l*ipmx/sw; /* To get the same order of magnitude as if weight=1 for every body */
1.85      brouard  1548:   return -l;
                   1549: }
                   1550: 
                   1551: /*************** log-likelihood *************/
                   1552: double funcone( double *x)
                   1553: {
1.87      brouard  1554:   /* Same as likeli but slower because of a lot of printf and if */
1.85      brouard  1555:   int i, ii, j, k, mi, d, kk;
                   1556:   double l, ll[NLSTATEMAX], cov[NCOVMAX];
                   1557:   double **out;
                   1558:   double lli; /* Individual log likelihood */
1.87      brouard  1559:   double llt;
1.85      brouard  1560:   int s1, s2;
                   1561:   double bbh, survp;
                   1562:   /*extern weight */
                   1563:   /* We are differentiating ll according to initial status */
                   1564:   /*  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) printf("%f ", x[i]);*/
                   1565:   /*for(i=1;i<imx;i++) 
                   1566:     printf(" %d\n",s[4][i]);
                   1567:   */
                   1568:   cov[1]=1.;
                   1569: 
                   1570:   for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) ll[k]=0.;
                   1571: 
                   1572:   for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
                   1573:     for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
                   1574:     for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
                   1575:       for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
                   1576:        for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
                   1577:          oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
                   1578:          savm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
                   1579:        }
                   1580:       for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
                   1581:        newm=savm;
                   1582:        cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
                   1583:        for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
                   1584:          cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
                   1585:        }
                   1586:        out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
                   1587:                     1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
                   1588:        savm=oldm;
                   1589:        oldm=newm;
                   1590:       } /* end mult */
                   1591:       
                   1592:       s1=s[mw[mi][i]][i];
                   1593:       s2=s[mw[mi+1][i]][i];
                   1594:       bbh=(double)bh[mi][i]/(double)stepm; 
                   1595:       /* bias is positive if real duration
                   1596:        * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
                   1597:        */
                   1598:       if( s2 > nlstate && (mle <5) ){  /* Jackson */
                   1599:        lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]);
1.119     brouard  1600:       } else if  (s2==-2) {
                   1601:        for (j=1,survp=0. ; j<=nlstate; j++) 
1.120   ! lievre   1602:          survp += (1.+bbh)*out[s1][j]- bbh*savm[s1][j];
1.119     brouard  1603:        lli= log(survp);
                   1604:       }else if (mle==1){
1.85      brouard  1605:        lli= log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]); /* linear interpolation */
                   1606:       } else if(mle==2){
                   1607:        lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* linear interpolation */
                   1608:       } else if(mle==3){  /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
                   1609:        lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* exponential inter-extrapolation */
                   1610:       } else if (mle==4){  /* mle=4 no inter-extrapolation */
                   1611:        lli=log(out[s1][s2]); /* Original formula */
                   1612:       } else{  /* ml>=5 no inter-extrapolation no jackson =0.8a */
                   1613:        lli=log(out[s1][s2]); /* Original formula */
                   1614:       } /* End of if */
                   1615:       ipmx +=1;
                   1616:       sw += weight[i];
                   1617:       ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
                   1618: /*       printf("i=%6d s1=%1d s2=%1d mi=%1d mw=%1d dh=%3d prob=%10.6f w=%6.4f out=%10.6f sav=%10.6f\n",i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
                   1619:       if(globpr){
1.119     brouard  1620:        fprintf(ficresilk,"%9d %6d %2d %2d %1d %1d %3d %11.6f %8.4f\
                   1621:  %11.6f %11.6f %11.6f ", \
1.86      brouard  1622:                num[i],i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],
                   1623:                2*weight[i]*lli,out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]);
1.87      brouard  1624:        for(k=1,llt=0.,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++){
                   1625:          llt +=ll[k]*gipmx/gsw;
                   1626:          fprintf(ficresilk," %10.6f",-ll[k]*gipmx/gsw);
                   1627:        }
                   1628:        fprintf(ficresilk," %10.6f\n", -llt);
1.85      brouard  1629:       }
                   1630:     } /* end of wave */
                   1631:   } /* end of individual */
                   1632:   for(k=1,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++) l += ll[k];
                   1633:   /* printf("l1=%f l2=%f ",ll[1],ll[2]); */
                   1634:   l= l*ipmx/sw; /* To get the same order of magnitude as if weight=1 for every body */
1.87      brouard  1635:   if(globpr==0){ /* First time we count the contributions and weights */
                   1636:     gipmx=ipmx;
                   1637:     gsw=sw;
                   1638:   }
1.53      brouard  1639:   return -l;
                   1640: }
                   1641: 
                   1642: 
1.94      brouard  1643: /*************** function likelione ***********/
1.87      brouard  1644: void likelione(FILE *ficres,double p[], int npar, int nlstate, int *globpri, long *ipmx, double *sw, double *fretone, double (*funcone)(double []))
1.85      brouard  1645: {
1.87      brouard  1646:   /* This routine should help understanding what is done with 
                   1647:      the selection of individuals/waves and
1.85      brouard  1648:      to check the exact contribution to the likelihood.
                   1649:      Plotting could be done.
                   1650:    */
                   1651:   int k;
1.87      brouard  1652: 
1.88      brouard  1653:   if(*globpri !=0){ /* Just counts and sums, no printings */
1.85      brouard  1654:     strcpy(fileresilk,"ilk"); 
                   1655:     strcat(fileresilk,fileres);
                   1656:     if((ficresilk=fopen(fileresilk,"w"))==NULL) {
                   1657:       printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresilk);
                   1658:       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresilk);
                   1659:     }
1.87      brouard  1660:     fprintf(ficresilk, "#individual(line's_record) s1 s2 wave# effective_wave# number_of_matrices_product pij weight -2ln(pij)*weight 0pij_x 0pij_(x-stepm) cumulating_loglikeli_by_health_state(reweighted=-2ll*weightXnumber_of_contribs/sum_of_weights) and_total\n");
1.88      brouard  1661:     fprintf(ficresilk, "#num_i i s1 s2 mi mw dh likeli weight 2wlli out sav ");
1.85      brouard  1662:     /*         i,s1,s2,mi,mw[mi][i],dh[mi][i],exp(lli),weight[i],2*weight[i]*lli,out[s1][s2],savm[s1][s2]); */
                   1663:     for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) 
1.87      brouard  1664:       fprintf(ficresilk," -2*gipw/gsw*weight*ll[%d]++",k);
                   1665:     fprintf(ficresilk," -2*gipw/gsw*weight*ll(total)\n");
1.85      brouard  1666:   }
                   1667: 
                   1668:   *fretone=(*funcone)(p);
1.87      brouard  1669:   if(*globpri !=0){
1.85      brouard  1670:     fclose(ficresilk);
1.88      brouard  1671:     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>File of contributions to the likelihood: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n",subdirf(fileresilk),subdirf(fileresilk));
1.87      brouard  1672:     fflush(fichtm); 
                   1673:   } 
1.85      brouard  1674:   return;
                   1675: }
                   1676: 
1.88      brouard  1677: 
1.53      brouard  1678: /*********** Maximum Likelihood Estimation ***************/
                   1679: 
                   1680: void mlikeli(FILE *ficres,double p[], int npar, int ncovmodel, int nlstate, double ftol, double (*func)(double []))
                   1681: {
                   1682:   int i,j, iter;
1.74      brouard  1683:   double **xi;
1.53      brouard  1684:   double fret;
1.85      brouard  1685:   double fretone; /* Only one call to likelihood */
1.98      brouard  1686:   /*  char filerespow[FILENAMELENGTH];*/
1.53      brouard  1687:   xi=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
                   1688:   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
                   1689:     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)
                   1690:       xi[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
                   1691:   printf("Powell\n");  fprintf(ficlog,"Powell\n");
1.76      brouard  1692:   strcpy(filerespow,"pow"); 
                   1693:   strcat(filerespow,fileres);
                   1694:   if((ficrespow=fopen(filerespow,"w"))==NULL) {
                   1695:     printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
                   1696:     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
                   1697:   }
                   1698:   fprintf(ficrespow,"# Powell\n# iter -2*LL");
                   1699:   for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
                   1700:     for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
                   1701:       if(j!=i)fprintf(ficrespow," p%1d%1d",i,j);
                   1702:   fprintf(ficrespow,"\n");
1.85      brouard  1703: 
1.53      brouard  1704:   powell(p,xi,npar,ftol,&iter,&fret,func);
                   1705: 
1.115     brouard  1706:   free_matrix(xi,1,npar,1,npar);
1.76      brouard  1707:   fclose(ficrespow);
                   1708:   printf("\n#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter,func(p));
1.65      lievre   1709:   fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f \n",iter,func(p));
1.53      brouard  1710:   fprintf(ficres,"#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f \n",iter,func(p));
                   1711: 
                   1712: }
                   1713: 
                   1714: /**** Computes Hessian and covariance matrix ***/
                   1715: void hesscov(double **matcov, double p[], int npar, double delti[], double ftolhess, double (*func)(double []))
                   1716: {
                   1717:   double  **a,**y,*x,pd;
                   1718:   double **hess;
                   1719:   int i, j,jk;
                   1720:   int *indx;
                   1721: 
1.98      brouard  1722:   double hessii(double p[], double delta, int theta, double delti[],double (*func)(double []),int npar);
                   1723:   double hessij(double p[], double delti[], int i, int j,double (*func)(double []),int npar);
1.53      brouard  1724:   void lubksb(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double b[]) ;
                   1725:   void ludcmp(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double *d) ;
1.98      brouard  1726:   double gompertz(double p[]);
1.53      brouard  1727:   hess=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
                   1728: 
                   1729:   printf("\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");
                   1730:   fprintf(ficlog,"\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");
                   1731:   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){
                   1732:     printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);
                   1733:     fprintf(ficlog,"%d",i);fflush(ficlog);
1.98      brouard  1734:    
                   1735:      hess[i][i]=hessii(p,ftolhess,i,delti,func,npar);
                   1736:     
                   1737:     /*  printf(" %f ",p[i]);
                   1738:        printf(" %lf %lf %lf",hess[i][i],ftolhess,delti[i]);*/
1.53      brouard  1739:   }
                   1740:   
                   1741:   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {
                   1742:     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)  {
                   1743:       if (j>i) { 
                   1744:        printf(".%d%d",i,j);fflush(stdout);
                   1745:        fprintf(ficlog,".%d%d",i,j);fflush(ficlog);
1.98      brouard  1746:        hess[i][j]=hessij(p,delti,i,j,func,npar);
                   1747:        
1.53      brouard  1748:        hess[j][i]=hess[i][j];    
                   1749:        /*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][j]);*/
                   1750:       }
                   1751:     }
                   1752:   }
                   1753:   printf("\n");
                   1754:   fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
                   1755: 
                   1756:   printf("\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");
                   1757:   fprintf(ficlog,"\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");
                   1758:   
                   1759:   a=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
                   1760:   y=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
                   1761:   x=vector(1,npar);
                   1762:   indx=ivector(1,npar);
                   1763:   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
                   1764:     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=hess[i][j];
                   1765:   ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);
                   1766: 
                   1767:   for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
                   1768:     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;
                   1769:     x[j]=1;
                   1770:     lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);
                   1771:     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){ 
                   1772:       matcov[i][j]=x[i];
                   1773:     }
                   1774:   }
                   1775: 
                   1776:   printf("\n#Hessian matrix#\n");
                   1777:   fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Hessian matrix#\n");
                   1778:   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) { 
                   1779:     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) { 
                   1780:       printf("%.3e ",hess[i][j]);
                   1781:       fprintf(ficlog,"%.3e ",hess[i][j]);
                   1782:     }
                   1783:     printf("\n");
                   1784:     fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
                   1785:   }
                   1786: 
                   1787:   /* Recompute Inverse */
                   1788:   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
                   1789:     for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=matcov[i][j];
                   1790:   ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);
                   1791: 
                   1792:   /*  printf("\n#Hessian matrix recomputed#\n");
                   1793: 
                   1794:   for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
                   1795:     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;
                   1796:     x[j]=1;
                   1797:     lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);
                   1798:     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){ 
                   1799:       y[i][j]=x[i];
                   1800:       printf("%.3e ",y[i][j]);
                   1801:       fprintf(ficlog,"%.3e ",y[i][j]);
                   1802:     }
                   1803:     printf("\n");
                   1804:     fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
                   1805:   }
                   1806:   */
                   1807: 
                   1808:   free_matrix(a,1,npar,1,npar);
                   1809:   free_matrix(y,1,npar,1,npar);
                   1810:   free_vector(x,1,npar);
                   1811:   free_ivector(indx,1,npar);
                   1812:   free_matrix(hess,1,npar,1,npar);
                   1813: 
                   1814: 
                   1815: }
                   1816: 
                   1817: /*************** hessian matrix ****************/
1.98      brouard  1818: double hessii(double x[], double delta, int theta, double delti[], double (*func)(double []), int npar)
1.53      brouard  1819: {
                   1820:   int i;
                   1821:   int l=1, lmax=20;
                   1822:   double k1,k2;
                   1823:   double p2[NPARMAX+1];
                   1824:   double res;
1.98      brouard  1825:   double delt=0.0001, delts, nkhi=10.,nkhif=1., khi=1.e-4;
1.53      brouard  1826:   double fx;
                   1827:   int k=0,kmax=10;
                   1828:   double l1;
                   1829: 
                   1830:   fx=func(x);
                   1831:   for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];
                   1832:   for(l=0 ; l <=lmax; l++){
                   1833:     l1=pow(10,l);
                   1834:     delts=delt;
                   1835:     for(k=1 ; k <kmax; k=k+1){
                   1836:       delt = delta*(l1*k);
                   1837:       p2[theta]=x[theta] +delt;
                   1838:       k1=func(p2)-fx;
                   1839:       p2[theta]=x[theta]-delt;
                   1840:       k2=func(p2)-fx;
                   1841:       /*res= (k1-2.0*fx+k2)/delt/delt; */
                   1842:       res= (k1+k2)/delt/delt/2.; /* Divided by because L and not 2*L */
                   1843:       
                   1844: #ifdef DEBUG
                   1845:       printf("%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);
                   1846:       fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);
                   1847: #endif
                   1848:       /*if(fabs(k1-2.0*fx+k2) <1.e-13){ */
                   1849:       if((k1 <khi/nkhi/2.) || (k2 <khi/nkhi/2.)){
                   1850:        k=kmax;
                   1851:       }
                   1852:       else if((k1 >khi/nkhif) || (k2 >khi/nkhif)){ /* Keeps lastvalue before 3.84/2 KHI2 5% 1d.f. */
                   1853:        k=kmax; l=lmax*10.;
                   1854:       }
                   1855:       else if((k1 >khi/nkhi) || (k2 >khi/nkhi)){ 
                   1856:        delts=delt;
                   1857:       }
                   1858:     }
                   1859:   }
                   1860:   delti[theta]=delts;
                   1861:   return res; 
                   1862:   
                   1863: }
                   1864: 
1.98      brouard  1865: double hessij( double x[], double delti[], int thetai,int thetaj,double (*func)(double []),int npar)
1.53      brouard  1866: {
                   1867:   int i;
                   1868:   int l=1, l1, lmax=20;
                   1869:   double k1,k2,k3,k4,res,fx;
                   1870:   double p2[NPARMAX+1];
                   1871:   int k;
                   1872: 
                   1873:   fx=func(x);
                   1874:   for (k=1; k<=2; k++) {
                   1875:     for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];
                   1876:     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;
                   1877:     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;
                   1878:     k1=func(p2)-fx;
                   1879:   
                   1880:     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;
                   1881:     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;
                   1882:     k2=func(p2)-fx;
                   1883:   
                   1884:     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;
                   1885:     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;
                   1886:     k3=func(p2)-fx;
                   1887:   
                   1888:     p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;
                   1889:     p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;
                   1890:     k4=func(p2)-fx;
                   1891:     res=(k1-k2-k3+k4)/4.0/delti[thetai]*k/delti[thetaj]*k/2.; /* Because of L not 2*L */
                   1892: #ifdef DEBUG
                   1893:     printf("%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
                   1894:     fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
                   1895: #endif
                   1896:   }
                   1897:   return res;
                   1898: }
                   1899: 
                   1900: /************** Inverse of matrix **************/
                   1901: void ludcmp(double **a, int n, int *indx, double *d) 
                   1902: { 
                   1903:   int i,imax,j,k; 
                   1904:   double big,dum,sum,temp; 
                   1905:   double *vv; 
                   1906:  
                   1907:   vv=vector(1,n); 
                   1908:   *d=1.0; 
                   1909:   for (i=1;i<=n;i++) { 
                   1910:     big=0.0; 
                   1911:     for (j=1;j<=n;j++) 
                   1912:       if ((temp=fabs(a[i][j])) > big) big=temp; 
                   1913:     if (big == 0.0) nrerror("Singular matrix in routine ludcmp"); 
                   1914:     vv[i]=1.0/big; 
                   1915:   } 
                   1916:   for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
                   1917:     for (i=1;i<j;i++) { 
                   1918:       sum=a[i][j]; 
                   1919:       for (k=1;k<i;k++) sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j]; 
                   1920:       a[i][j]=sum; 
                   1921:     } 
                   1922:     big=0.0; 
                   1923:     for (i=j;i<=n;i++) { 
                   1924:       sum=a[i][j]; 
                   1925:       for (k=1;k<j;k++) 
                   1926:        sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j]; 
                   1927:       a[i][j]=sum; 
                   1928:       if ( (dum=vv[i]*fabs(sum)) >= big) { 
                   1929:        big=dum; 
                   1930:        imax=i; 
                   1931:       } 
                   1932:     } 
                   1933:     if (j != imax) { 
                   1934:       for (k=1;k<=n;k++) { 
                   1935:        dum=a[imax][k]; 
                   1936:        a[imax][k]=a[j][k]; 
                   1937:        a[j][k]=dum; 
                   1938:       } 
                   1939:       *d = -(*d); 
                   1940:       vv[imax]=vv[j]; 
                   1941:     } 
                   1942:     indx[j]=imax; 
                   1943:     if (a[j][j] == 0.0) a[j][j]=TINY; 
                   1944:     if (j != n) { 
                   1945:       dum=1.0/(a[j][j]); 
                   1946:       for (i=j+1;i<=n;i++) a[i][j] *= dum; 
                   1947:     } 
                   1948:   } 
                   1949:   free_vector(vv,1,n);  /* Doesn't work */
                   1950: ;
                   1951: } 
                   1952: 
                   1953: void lubksb(double **a, int n, int *indx, double b[]) 
                   1954: { 
                   1955:   int i,ii=0,ip,j; 
                   1956:   double sum; 
                   1957:  
                   1958:   for (i=1;i<=n;i++) { 
                   1959:     ip=indx[i]; 
                   1960:     sum=b[ip]; 
                   1961:     b[ip]=b[i]; 
                   1962:     if (ii) 
                   1963:       for (j=ii;j<=i-1;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j]; 
                   1964:     else if (sum) ii=i; 
                   1965:     b[i]=sum; 
                   1966:   } 
                   1967:   for (i=n;i>=1;i--) { 
                   1968:     sum=b[i]; 
                   1969:     for (j=i+1;j<=n;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j]; 
                   1970:     b[i]=sum/a[i][i]; 
                   1971:   } 
                   1972: } 
                   1973: 
1.117     brouard  1974: void pstamp(FILE *fichier)
                   1975: {
                   1976:   fprintf(fichier,"# %s.%s\n#%s\n#%s\n# %s", optionfilefiname,optionfilext,version,fullversion,strstart);
                   1977: }
                   1978: 
1.53      brouard  1979: /************ Frequencies ********************/
1.105     lievre   1980: void  freqsummary(char fileres[], int iagemin, int iagemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvaraff, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, char strstart[])
1.53      brouard  1981: {  /* Some frequencies */
                   1982:   
                   1983:   int i, m, jk, k1,i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;
                   1984:   int first;
                   1985:   double ***freq; /* Frequencies */
1.73      lievre   1986:   double *pp, **prop;
                   1987:   double pos,posprop, k2, dateintsum=0,k2cpt=0;
1.53      brouard  1988:   char fileresp[FILENAMELENGTH];
                   1989:   
                   1990:   pp=vector(1,nlstate);
1.74      brouard  1991:   prop=matrix(1,nlstate,iagemin,iagemax+3);
1.53      brouard  1992:   strcpy(fileresp,"p");
                   1993:   strcat(fileresp,fileres);
                   1994:   if((ficresp=fopen(fileresp,"w"))==NULL) {
                   1995:     printf("Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);
                   1996:     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);
                   1997:     exit(0);
                   1998:   }
1.105     lievre   1999:   freq= ma3x(-5,nlstate+ndeath,-5,nlstate+ndeath,iagemin,iagemax+3);
1.53      brouard  2000:   j1=0;
                   2001:   
                   2002:   j=cptcoveff;
                   2003:   if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
                   2004: 
                   2005:   first=1;
                   2006: 
                   2007:   for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){
                   2008:     for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
                   2009:       j1++;
                   2010:       /*printf("cptcoveff=%d Tvaraff=%d", cptcoveff,Tvaraff[1]);
                   2011:        scanf("%d", i);*/
1.105     lievre   2012:       for (i=-5; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)  
                   2013:        for (jk=-5; jk<=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)  
1.74      brouard  2014:          for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
1.53      brouard  2015:            freq[i][jk][m]=0;
1.73      lievre   2016: 
                   2017:     for (i=1; i<=nlstate; i++)  
1.74      brouard  2018:       for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
1.73      lievre   2019:        prop[i][m]=0;
1.53      brouard  2020:       
                   2021:       dateintsum=0;
                   2022:       k2cpt=0;
                   2023:       for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
                   2024:        bool=1;
                   2025:        if  (cptcovn>0) {
                   2026:          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) 
                   2027:            if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]) 
                   2028:              bool=0;
                   2029:        }
1.58      lievre   2030:        if (bool==1){
1.53      brouard  2031:          for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){
                   2032:            k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);
1.84      brouard  2033:            /*if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {*/
1.74      brouard  2034:              if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=iagemax+1;
                   2035:              if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=iagemax+2;
1.73      lievre   2036:              if (s[m][i]>0 && s[m][i]<=nlstate) prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
1.53      brouard  2037:              if (m<lastpass) {
                   2038:                freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
1.74      brouard  2039:                freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][iagemax+3] += weight[i];
1.53      brouard  2040:              }
                   2041:              
1.74      brouard  2042:              if ((agev[m][i]>1) && (agev[m][i]< (iagemax+3))) {
1.53      brouard  2043:                dateintsum=dateintsum+k2;
                   2044:                k2cpt++;
                   2045:              }
1.84      brouard  2046:              /*}*/
1.53      brouard  2047:          }
                   2048:        }
                   2049:       }
                   2050:        
1.84      brouard  2051:       /*      fprintf(ficresp, "#Count between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);*/
1.117     brouard  2052:       pstamp(ficresp);
1.53      brouard  2053:       if  (cptcovn>0) {
                   2054:        fprintf(ficresp, "\n#********** Variable "); 
                   2055:        for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresp, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
                   2056:        fprintf(ficresp, "**********\n#");
                   2057:       }
                   2058:       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) 
                   2059:        fprintf(ficresp, " Age Prev(%d) N(%d) N",i,i);
                   2060:       fprintf(ficresp, "\n");
                   2061:       
1.74      brouard  2062:       for(i=iagemin; i <= iagemax+3; i++){
                   2063:        if(i==iagemax+3){
1.53      brouard  2064:          fprintf(ficlog,"Total");
                   2065:        }else{
                   2066:          if(first==1){
                   2067:            first=0;
                   2068:            printf("See log file for details...\n");
                   2069:          }
                   2070:          fprintf(ficlog,"Age %d", i);
                   2071:        }
                   2072:        for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
                   2073:          for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)
                   2074:            pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i]; 
                   2075:        }
                   2076:        for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
                   2077:          for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)
                   2078:            pos += freq[jk][m][i];
                   2079:          if(pp[jk]>=1.e-10){
                   2080:            if(first==1){
                   2081:            printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);
                   2082:            }
                   2083:            fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);
                   2084:          }else{
                   2085:            if(first==1)
                   2086:              printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
                   2087:            fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
                   2088:          }
                   2089:        }
                   2090: 
                   2091:        for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
                   2092:          for(m=0, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)
                   2093:            pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];
1.73      lievre   2094:        }       
                   2095:        for(jk=1,pos=0,posprop=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
                   2096:          pos += pp[jk];
                   2097:          posprop += prop[jk][i];
1.53      brouard  2098:        }
                   2099:        for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
                   2100:          if(pos>=1.e-5){
                   2101:            if(first==1)
                   2102:              printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);
                   2103:            fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);
                   2104:          }else{
                   2105:            if(first==1)
                   2106:              printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
                   2107:            fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
                   2108:          }
1.74      brouard  2109:          if( i <= iagemax){
1.53      brouard  2110:            if(pos>=1.e-5){
1.73      lievre   2111:              fprintf(ficresp," %d %.5f %.0f %.0f",i,prop[jk][i]/posprop, prop[jk][i],posprop);
1.84      brouard  2112:              /*probs[i][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;*/
1.53      brouard  2113:              /*printf("\ni=%d jk=%d j1=%d %.5f %.0f %.0f %f",i,jk,j1,pp[jk]/pos, pp[jk],pos,probs[i][jk][j1]);*/
                   2114:            }
                   2115:            else
1.73      lievre   2116:              fprintf(ficresp," %d NaNq %.0f %.0f",i,prop[jk][i],posprop);
1.53      brouard  2117:          }
                   2118:        }
                   2119:        
1.69      brouard  2120:        for(jk=-1; jk <=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)
                   2121:          for(m=-1; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)
1.53      brouard  2122:            if(freq[jk][m][i] !=0 ) {
                   2123:            if(first==1)
                   2124:              printf(" %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);
                   2125:              fprintf(ficlog," %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);
                   2126:            }
1.74      brouard  2127:        if(i <= iagemax)
1.53      brouard  2128:          fprintf(ficresp,"\n");
                   2129:        if(first==1)
                   2130:          printf("Others in log...\n");
                   2131:        fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
                   2132:       }
                   2133:     }
                   2134:   }
                   2135:   dateintmean=dateintsum/k2cpt; 
                   2136:  
                   2137:   fclose(ficresp);
1.105     lievre   2138:   free_ma3x(freq,-5,nlstate+ndeath,-5,nlstate+ndeath, iagemin, iagemax+3);
1.53      brouard  2139:   free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);
1.74      brouard  2140:   free_matrix(prop,1,nlstate,iagemin, iagemax+3);
1.53      brouard  2141:   /* End of Freq */
                   2142: }
                   2143: 
                   2144: /************ Prevalence ********************/
1.84      brouard  2145: void prevalence(double ***probs, double agemin, double agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, double dateprev1,double dateprev2, int firstpass, int lastpass)
1.69      brouard  2146: {  
                   2147:   /* Compute observed prevalence between dateprev1 and dateprev2 by counting the number of people
                   2148:      in each health status at the date of interview (if between dateprev1 and dateprev2).
                   2149:      We still use firstpass and lastpass as another selection.
                   2150:   */
1.53      brouard  2151:  
                   2152:   int i, m, jk, k1, i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;
                   2153:   double ***freq; /* Frequencies */
1.73      lievre   2154:   double *pp, **prop;
                   2155:   double pos,posprop; 
1.69      brouard  2156:   double  y2; /* in fractional years */
1.74      brouard  2157:   int iagemin, iagemax;
1.53      brouard  2158: 
1.74      brouard  2159:   iagemin= (int) agemin;
                   2160:   iagemax= (int) agemax;
                   2161:   /*pp=vector(1,nlstate);*/
                   2162:   prop=matrix(1,nlstate,iagemin,iagemax+3); 
                   2163:   /*  freq=ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,iagemin,iagemax+3);*/
1.53      brouard  2164:   j1=0;
                   2165:   
                   2166:   j=cptcoveff;
                   2167:   if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
                   2168:   
                   2169:   for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){
                   2170:     for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
                   2171:       j1++;
                   2172:       
1.73      lievre   2173:       for (i=1; i<=nlstate; i++)  
1.74      brouard  2174:        for(m=iagemin; m <= iagemax+3; m++)
                   2175:          prop[i][m]=0.0;
1.53      brouard  2176:      
1.69      brouard  2177:       for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) { /* Each individual */
1.53      brouard  2178:        bool=1;
                   2179:        if  (cptcovn>0) {
                   2180:          for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) 
                   2181:            if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]) 
                   2182:              bool=0;
                   2183:        } 
                   2184:        if (bool==1) { 
1.69      brouard  2185:          for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){/* Other selection (we can limit to certain interviews*/
                   2186:            y2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.); /* Fractional date in year */
                   2187:            if ((y2>=dateprev1) && (y2<=dateprev2)) { /* Here is the main selection (fractional years) */
1.74      brouard  2188:              if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=iagemax+1;
                   2189:              if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=iagemax+2;
                   2190:              if((int)agev[m][i] <iagemin || (int)agev[m][i] >iagemax+3) printf("Error on individual =%d agev[m][i]=%f m=%d\n",i, agev[m][i],m); 
                   2191:              if (s[m][i]>0 && s[m][i]<=nlstate) { 
                   2192:                /*if(i>4620) printf(" i=%d m=%d s[m][i]=%d (int)agev[m][i]=%d weight[i]=%f prop=%f\n",i,m,s[m][i],(int)agev[m][m],weight[i],prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]]);*/
                   2193:                prop[s[m][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
                   2194:                prop[s[m][i]][iagemax+3] += weight[i]; 
                   2195:              } 
1.53      brouard  2196:            }
1.69      brouard  2197:          } /* end selection of waves */
1.53      brouard  2198:        }
                   2199:       }
1.74      brouard  2200:       for(i=iagemin; i <= iagemax+3; i++){  
1.53      brouard  2201:        
1.74      brouard  2202:        for(jk=1,posprop=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++) { 
                   2203:          posprop += prop[jk][i]; 
                   2204:        } 
                   2205: 
                   2206:        for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){     
                   2207:          if( i <=  iagemax){ 
                   2208:            if(posprop>=1.e-5){ 
                   2209:              probs[i][jk][j1]= prop[jk][i]/posprop;
                   2210:            } 
                   2211:          } 
                   2212:        }/* end jk */ 
                   2213:       }/* end i */ 
1.53      brouard  2214:     } /* end i1 */
                   2215:   } /* end k1 */
                   2216:   
1.74      brouard  2217:   /*  free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath, iagemin, iagemax+3);*/
                   2218:   /*free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);*/
                   2219:   free_matrix(prop,1,nlstate, iagemin,iagemax+3);
                   2220: }  /* End of prevalence */
1.53      brouard  2221: 
                   2222: /************* Waves Concatenation ***************/
                   2223: 
1.59      brouard  2224: void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int **bh,  int **mw, int **s, double *agedc, double **agev, int  firstpass, int lastpass, int imx, int nlstate, int stepm)
1.53      brouard  2225: {
                   2226:   /* Concatenates waves: wav[i] is the number of effective (useful waves) of individual i.
                   2227:      Death is a valid wave (if date is known).
                   2228:      mw[mi][i] is the mi (mi=1 to wav[i])  effective wave of individual i
1.59      brouard  2229:      dh[m][i] or dh[mw[mi][i]][i] is the delay between two effective waves m=mw[mi][i]
1.53      brouard  2230:      and mw[mi+1][i]. dh depends on stepm.
                   2231:      */
                   2232: 
                   2233:   int i, mi, m;
                   2234:   /* int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl,jmin=1e+5, jmax=-1;
                   2235:      double sum=0., jmean=0.;*/
                   2236:   int first;
                   2237:   int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl;
                   2238:   double sum=0.;
                   2239:   first=0;
                   2240:   jmin=1e+5;
                   2241:   jmax=-1;
                   2242:   jmean=0.;
                   2243:   for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){
                   2244:     mi=0;
                   2245:     m=firstpass;
                   2246:     while(s[m][i] <= nlstate){
1.105     lievre   2247:       if(s[m][i]>=1 || s[m][i]==-2 || s[m][i]==-4 || s[m][i]==-5)
1.53      brouard  2248:        mw[++mi][i]=m;
                   2249:       if(m >=lastpass)
                   2250:        break;
                   2251:       else
                   2252:        m++;
                   2253:     }/* end while */
                   2254:     if (s[m][i] > nlstate){
                   2255:       mi++;    /* Death is another wave */
                   2256:       /* if(mi==0)  never been interviewed correctly before death */
                   2257:         /* Only death is a correct wave */
                   2258:       mw[mi][i]=m;
                   2259:     }
                   2260: 
                   2261:     wav[i]=mi;
                   2262:     if(mi==0){
1.91      brouard  2263:       nbwarn++;
1.53      brouard  2264:       if(first==0){
1.111     brouard  2265:        printf("Warning! No valid information for individual %ld line=%d (skipped) and may be others, see log file\n",num[i],i);
1.53      brouard  2266:        first=1;
                   2267:       }
                   2268:       if(first==1){
1.111     brouard  2269:        fprintf(ficlog,"Warning! No valid information for individual %ld line=%d (skipped)\n",num[i],i);
1.53      brouard  2270:       }
                   2271:     } /* end mi==0 */
1.77      brouard  2272:   } /* End individuals */
1.53      brouard  2273: 
                   2274:   for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){
                   2275:     for(mi=1; mi<wav[i];mi++){
                   2276:       if (stepm <=0)
                   2277:        dh[mi][i]=1;
                   2278:       else{
1.77      brouard  2279:        if (s[mw[mi+1][i]][i] > nlstate) { /* A death */
1.53      brouard  2280:          if (agedc[i] < 2*AGESUP) {
1.85      brouard  2281:            j= rint(agedc[i]*12-agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12); 
                   2282:            if(j==0) j=1;  /* Survives at least one month after exam */
                   2283:            else if(j<0){
1.91      brouard  2284:              nberr++;
1.85      brouard  2285:              printf("Error! Negative delay (%d to death) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
1.91      brouard  2286:              j=1; /* Temporary Dangerous patch */
1.105     lievre   2287:              printf("   We assumed that the date of interview was correct (and not the date of death) and postponed the death %d month(s) (one stepm) after the interview. You MUST fix the contradiction between dates.\n",stepm);
1.91      brouard  2288:              fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Negative delay (%d to death) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
1.105     lievre   2289:              fprintf(ficlog,"   We assumed that the date of interview was correct (and not the date of death) and postponed the death %d month(s) (one stepm) after the interview. You MUST fix the contradiction between dates.\n",stepm);
1.85      brouard  2290:            }
                   2291:            k=k+1;
1.110     brouard  2292:            if (j >= jmax){
                   2293:              jmax=j;
                   2294:              ijmax=i;
                   2295:            }
                   2296:            if (j <= jmin){
                   2297:              jmin=j;
                   2298:              ijmin=i;
                   2299:            }
1.85      brouard  2300:            sum=sum+j;
                   2301:            /*if (j<0) printf("j=%d num=%d \n",j,i);*/
                   2302:            /*    printf("%d %d %d %d\n", s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i],j,i);*/
1.53      brouard  2303:          }
                   2304:        }
                   2305:        else{
                   2306:          j= rint( (agev[mw[mi+1][i]][i]*12 - agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12));
1.104     lievre   2307: /*       if (j<0) printf("%d %lf %lf %d %d %d\n", i,agev[mw[mi+1][i]][i], agev[mw[mi][i]][i],j,s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]); */
                   2308: 
1.53      brouard  2309:          k=k+1;
1.110     brouard  2310:          if (j >= jmax) {
                   2311:            jmax=j;
                   2312:            ijmax=i;
                   2313:          }
                   2314:          else if (j <= jmin){
                   2315:            jmin=j;
                   2316:            ijmin=i;
                   2317:          }
1.53      brouard  2318:          /*        if (j<10) printf("j=%d jmin=%d num=%d ",j,jmin,i); */
1.73      lievre   2319:          /*printf("%d %lf %d %d %d\n", i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],j,s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);*/
1.85      brouard  2320:          if(j<0){
1.91      brouard  2321:            nberr++;
1.85      brouard  2322:            printf("Error! Negative delay (%d) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
                   2323:            fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Negative delay (%d) between waves %d and %d of individual %ld at line %d who is aged %.1f with statuses from %d to %d\n ",j,mw[mi][i],mw[mi+1][i],num[i], i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);
                   2324:          }
1.53      brouard  2325:          sum=sum+j;
                   2326:        }
                   2327:        jk= j/stepm;
                   2328:        jl= j -jk*stepm;
                   2329:        ju= j -(jk+1)*stepm;
1.85      brouard  2330:        if(mle <=1){ /* only if we use a the linear-interpoloation pseudo-likelihood */
1.64      lievre   2331:          if(jl==0){
                   2332:            dh[mi][i]=jk;
                   2333:            bh[mi][i]=0;
                   2334:          }else{ /* We want a negative bias in order to only have interpolation ie
                   2335:                  * at the price of an extra matrix product in likelihood */
                   2336:            dh[mi][i]=jk+1;
                   2337:            bh[mi][i]=ju;
                   2338:          }
                   2339:        }else{
                   2340:          if(jl <= -ju){
                   2341:            dh[mi][i]=jk;
                   2342:            bh[mi][i]=jl;       /* bias is positive if real duration
                   2343:                                 * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise.
                   2344:                                 */
                   2345:          }
                   2346:          else{
                   2347:            dh[mi][i]=jk+1;
                   2348:            bh[mi][i]=ju;
                   2349:          }
                   2350:          if(dh[mi][i]==0){
                   2351:            dh[mi][i]=1; /* At least one step */
                   2352:            bh[mi][i]=ju; /* At least one step */
1.71      brouard  2353:            /*  printf(" bh=%d ju=%d jl=%d dh=%d jk=%d stepm=%d %d\n",bh[mi][i],ju,jl,dh[mi][i],jk,stepm,i);*/
1.64      lievre   2354:          }
1.85      brouard  2355:        } /* end if mle */
                   2356:       }
1.64      lievre   2357:     } /* end wave */
1.53      brouard  2358:   }
                   2359:   jmean=sum/k;
1.110     brouard  2360:   printf("Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d (for indiviudal %ld) Max=%d (%ld) Mean=%f\n\n ",jmin, num[ijmin], jmax, num[ijmax], jmean);
                   2361:   fprintf(ficlog,"Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d (for indiviudal %ld) Max=%d (%ld) Mean=%f\n\n ",jmin, ijmin, jmax, ijmax, jmean);
1.53      brouard  2362:  }
                   2363: 
                   2364: /*********** Tricode ****************************/
                   2365: void tricode(int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int imx)
                   2366: {
1.58      lievre   2367:   
                   2368:   int Ndum[20],ij=1, k, j, i, maxncov=19;
1.53      brouard  2369:   int cptcode=0;
                   2370:   cptcoveff=0; 
                   2371:  
1.58      lievre   2372:   for (k=0; k<maxncov; k++) Ndum[k]=0;
1.53      brouard  2373:   for (k=1; k<=7; k++) ncodemax[k]=0;
                   2374: 
                   2375:   for (j=1; j<=(cptcovn+2*cptcovprod); j++) {
1.58      lievre   2376:     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) { /*reads the data file to get the maximum 
                   2377:                               modality*/ 
                   2378:       ij=(int)(covar[Tvar[j]][i]); /* ij is the modality of this individual*/
                   2379:       Ndum[ij]++; /*store the modality */
1.53      brouard  2380:       /*printf("i=%d ij=%d Ndum[ij]=%d imx=%d",i,ij,Ndum[ij],imx);*/
1.58      lievre   2381:       if (ij > cptcode) cptcode=ij; /* getting the maximum of covariable 
                   2382:                                       Tvar[j]. If V=sex and male is 0 and 
                   2383:                                       female is 1, then  cptcode=1.*/
1.53      brouard  2384:     }
                   2385: 
                   2386:     for (i=0; i<=cptcode; i++) {
1.58      lievre   2387:       if(Ndum[i]!=0) ncodemax[j]++; /* Nomber of modalities of the j th covariates. In fact ncodemax[j]=2 (dichotom. variables) but it can be more */
1.53      brouard  2388:     }
1.58      lievre   2389: 
1.53      brouard  2390:     ij=1; 
                   2391:     for (i=1; i<=ncodemax[j]; i++) {
1.58      lievre   2392:       for (k=0; k<= maxncov; k++) {
1.53      brouard  2393:        if (Ndum[k] != 0) {
                   2394:          nbcode[Tvar[j]][ij]=k; 
1.58      lievre   2395:          /* store the modality in an array. k is a modality. If we have model=V1+V1*sex then: nbcode[1][1]=0 ; nbcode[1][2]=1; nbcode[2][1]=0 ; nbcode[2][2]=1; */
1.53      brouard  2396:          
                   2397:          ij++;
                   2398:        }
                   2399:        if (ij > ncodemax[j]) break; 
                   2400:       }  
                   2401:     } 
                   2402:   }  
                   2403: 
1.58      lievre   2404:  for (k=0; k< maxncov; k++) Ndum[k]=0;
1.53      brouard  2405: 
1.58      lievre   2406:  for (i=1; i<=ncovmodel-2; i++) { 
1.104     lievre   2407:    /* Listing of all covariables in statement model to see if some covariates appear twice. For example, V1 appears twice in V1+V1*V2.*/
1.53      brouard  2408:    ij=Tvar[i];
1.58      lievre   2409:    Ndum[ij]++;
1.53      brouard  2410:  }
                   2411: 
                   2412:  ij=1;
1.58      lievre   2413:  for (i=1; i<= maxncov; i++) {
1.53      brouard  2414:    if((Ndum[i]!=0) && (i<=ncovcol)){
1.58      lievre   2415:      Tvaraff[ij]=i; /*For printing */
1.53      brouard  2416:      ij++;
                   2417:    }
                   2418:  }
                   2419:  
1.58      lievre   2420:  cptcoveff=ij-1; /*Number of simple covariates*/
1.53      brouard  2421: }
                   2422: 
                   2423: /*********** Health Expectancies ****************/
                   2424: 
1.117     brouard  2425: void evsij(char fileres[], double ***eij, double x[], int nlstate, int stepm, int bage, int fage, double **oldm, double **savm, int cij, int estepm,char strstart[] )
1.53      brouard  2426: 
                   2427: {
1.117     brouard  2428:   /* Health expectancies, no variances */
                   2429:   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm, k, cptj, cptj2, i2, j2;
1.53      brouard  2430:   double age, agelim, hf;
1.117     brouard  2431:   double ***p3mat;
                   2432:   double eip;
                   2433: 
                   2434:   pstamp(ficreseij);
                   2435:   fprintf(ficreseij,"# (a) Life expectancies by health status at initial age and (b) health expectancies by health status at initial age\n");
                   2436:   fprintf(ficreseij,"# Age");
                   2437:   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
                   2438:     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
                   2439:       fprintf(ficreseij," e%1d%1d ",i,j);
                   2440:     }
                   2441:     fprintf(ficreseij," e%1d. ",i);
                   2442:   }
                   2443:   fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");
                   2444: 
                   2445:   
                   2446:   if(estepm < stepm){
                   2447:     printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
                   2448:   }
                   2449:   else  hstepm=estepm;   
                   2450:   /* We compute the life expectancy from trapezoids spaced every estepm months
                   2451:    * This is mainly to measure the difference between two models: for example
                   2452:    * if stepm=24 months pijx are given only every 2 years and by summing them
                   2453:    * we are calculating an estimate of the Life Expectancy assuming a linear 
                   2454:    * progression in between and thus overestimating or underestimating according
                   2455:    * to the curvature of the survival function. If, for the same date, we 
                   2456:    * estimate the model with stepm=1 month, we can keep estepm to 24 months
                   2457:    * to compare the new estimate of Life expectancy with the same linear 
                   2458:    * hypothesis. A more precise result, taking into account a more precise
                   2459:    * curvature will be obtained if estepm is as small as stepm. */
                   2460: 
                   2461:   /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
                   2462:   /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm. 
                   2463:      nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim 
                   2464:      nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin. 
                   2465:      Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size
                   2466:      and note for a fixed period like estepm months */
                   2467:   /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
                   2468:      survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
                   2469:      means that if the survival funtion is printed only each two years of age and if
                   2470:      you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same 
                   2471:      results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.
                   2472:   */
                   2473:   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */ 
                   2474: 
                   2475:   agelim=AGESUP;
                   2476:   /* nhstepm age range expressed in number of stepm */
                   2477:   nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); 
                   2478:   /* Typically if 20 years nstepm = 20*12/6=40 stepm */ 
                   2479:   /* if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;*/
                   2480:   nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
                   2481:   p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
                   2482: 
                   2483:   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
                   2484:     /* Computed by stepm unit matrices, product of hstepm matrices, stored
                   2485:        in an array of nhstepm length: nhstepm=10, hstepm=4, stepm=6 months */
1.119     brouard  2486:     
1.117     brouard  2487:     hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm, savm, cij);  
1.119     brouard  2488:     
1.117     brouard  2489:     hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
1.119     brouard  2490:     
                   2491:     printf("%d|",(int)age);fflush(stdout);
                   2492:     fprintf(ficlog,"%d|",(int)age);fflush(ficlog);
                   2493:     
1.117     brouard  2494:     /* Computing expectancies */
                   2495:     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                   2496:       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
                   2497:        for (h=0, eij[i][j][(int)age]=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
                   2498:          eij[i][j][(int)age] += (p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.0*hf;
                   2499:          
1.119     brouard  2500:          /* if((int)age==70)printf("i=%2d,j=%2d,h=%2d,age=%3d,%9.4f,%9.4f,%9.4f\n",i,j,h,(int)age,p3mat[i][j][h],hf,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
1.117     brouard  2501: 
                   2502:        }
                   2503: 
                   2504:     fprintf(ficreseij,"%3.0f",age );
                   2505:     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
                   2506:       eip=0;
                   2507:       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
                   2508:        eip +=eij[i][j][(int)age];
                   2509:        fprintf(ficreseij,"%9.4f", eij[i][j][(int)age] );
                   2510:       }
                   2511:       fprintf(ficreseij,"%9.4f", eip );
                   2512:     }
                   2513:     fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");
1.119     brouard  2514:     
1.117     brouard  2515:   }
                   2516:   free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
                   2517:   printf("\n");
                   2518:   fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
1.119     brouard  2519:   
1.117     brouard  2520: }
                   2521: 
                   2522: void cvevsij(char fileres[], double ***eij, double x[], int nlstate, int stepm, int bage, int fage, double **oldm, double **savm, int cij, int estepm,double delti[],double **matcov,char strstart[] )
                   2523: 
                   2524: {
                   2525:   /* Covariances of health expectancies eij and of total life expectancies according
                   2526:    to initial status i, ei. .
                   2527:   */
                   2528:   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm, k, cptj, cptj2, i2, j2, ij, ji;
                   2529:   double age, agelim, hf;
                   2530:   double ***p3matp, ***p3matm, ***varhe;
1.53      brouard  2531:   double **dnewm,**doldm;
1.117     brouard  2532:   double *xp, *xm;
1.53      brouard  2533:   double **gp, **gm;
                   2534:   double ***gradg, ***trgradg;
                   2535:   int theta;
                   2536: 
1.117     brouard  2537:   double eip, vip;
                   2538: 
1.74      brouard  2539:   varhe=ma3x(1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
1.53      brouard  2540:   xp=vector(1,npar);
1.117     brouard  2541:   xm=vector(1,npar);
1.74      brouard  2542:   dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
                   2543:   doldm=matrix(1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate);
1.53      brouard  2544:   
1.117     brouard  2545:   pstamp(ficresstdeij);
                   2546:   fprintf(ficresstdeij,"# Health expectancies with standard errors\n");
                   2547:   fprintf(ficresstdeij,"# Age");
                   2548:   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
1.53      brouard  2549:     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
1.117     brouard  2550:       fprintf(ficresstdeij," e%1d%1d (SE)",i,j);
                   2551:     fprintf(ficresstdeij," e%1d. ",i);
                   2552:   }
                   2553:   fprintf(ficresstdeij,"\n");
1.53      brouard  2554: 
1.117     brouard  2555:   pstamp(ficrescveij);
                   2556:   fprintf(ficrescveij,"# Subdiagonal matrix of covariances of health expectancies by age: cov(eij,ekl)\n");
                   2557:   fprintf(ficrescveij,"# Age");
                   2558:   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                   2559:     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
                   2560:       cptj= (j-1)*nlstate+i;
                   2561:       for(i2=1; i2<=nlstate;i2++)
                   2562:        for(j2=1; j2<=nlstate;j2++){
                   2563:          cptj2= (j2-1)*nlstate+i2;
                   2564:          if(cptj2 <= cptj)
                   2565:            fprintf(ficrescveij,"  %1d%1d,%1d%1d",i,j,i2,j2);
                   2566:        }
                   2567:     }
                   2568:   fprintf(ficrescveij,"\n");
                   2569:   
1.53      brouard  2570:   if(estepm < stepm){
                   2571:     printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
                   2572:   }
                   2573:   else  hstepm=estepm;   
                   2574:   /* We compute the life expectancy from trapezoids spaced every estepm months
                   2575:    * This is mainly to measure the difference between two models: for example
                   2576:    * if stepm=24 months pijx are given only every 2 years and by summing them
                   2577:    * we are calculating an estimate of the Life Expectancy assuming a linear 
1.66      brouard  2578:    * progression in between and thus overestimating or underestimating according
1.53      brouard  2579:    * to the curvature of the survival function. If, for the same date, we 
                   2580:    * estimate the model with stepm=1 month, we can keep estepm to 24 months
                   2581:    * to compare the new estimate of Life expectancy with the same linear 
                   2582:    * hypothesis. A more precise result, taking into account a more precise
                   2583:    * curvature will be obtained if estepm is as small as stepm. */
                   2584: 
                   2585:   /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
                   2586:   /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm. 
                   2587:      nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim 
                   2588:      nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin. 
                   2589:      Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size
                   2590:      and note for a fixed period like estepm months */
                   2591:   /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
                   2592:      survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
                   2593:      means that if the survival funtion is printed only each two years of age and if
                   2594:      you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same 
                   2595:      results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.
                   2596:   */
                   2597:   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */ 
                   2598: 
1.117     brouard  2599:   /* If stepm=6 months */
                   2600:   /* nhstepm age range expressed in number of stepm */
1.53      brouard  2601:   agelim=AGESUP;
1.117     brouard  2602:   nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); 
                   2603:   /* Typically if 20 years nstepm = 20*12/6=40 stepm */ 
                   2604:   /* if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;*/
                   2605:   nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
                   2606:   
                   2607:   p3matp=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
                   2608:   p3matm=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
                   2609:   gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate*nlstate);
                   2610:   trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
                   2611:   gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
                   2612:   gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
                   2613: 
                   2614:   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ 
1.53      brouard  2615: 
                   2616:     /* Computed by stepm unit matrices, product of hstepm matrices, stored
                   2617:        in an array of nhstepm length: nhstepm=10, hstepm=4, stepm=6 months */
                   2618:  
                   2619:     hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
                   2620: 
1.95      brouard  2621:     /* Computing  Variances of health expectancies */
1.117     brouard  2622:     /* Gradient is computed with plus gp and minus gm. Code is duplicated in order to
                   2623:        decrease memory allocation */
                   2624:     for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
1.53      brouard  2625:       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ 
                   2626:        xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
1.117     brouard  2627:        xm[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
1.53      brouard  2628:       }
1.117     brouard  2629:       hpxij(p3matp,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, cij);  
                   2630:       hpxij(p3matm,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xm,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, cij);  
1.53      brouard  2631:   
                   2632:       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
                   2633:        for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++){
1.117     brouard  2634:          for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
                   2635:            gp[h][(j-1)*nlstate + i] = (p3matp[i][j][h]+p3matp[i][j][h+1])/2.;
                   2636:            gm[h][(j-1)*nlstate + i] = (p3matm[i][j][h]+p3matm[i][j][h+1])/2.;
1.53      brouard  2637:          }
                   2638:        }
                   2639:       }
                   2640:      
1.117     brouard  2641:       for(ij=1; ij<= nlstate*nlstate; ij++)
1.53      brouard  2642:        for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
1.117     brouard  2643:          gradg[h][theta][ij]= (gp[h][ij]-gm[h][ij])/2./delti[theta];
1.53      brouard  2644:        }
1.117     brouard  2645:     }/* End theta */
                   2646:     
                   2647:     
                   2648:     for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++)
1.74      brouard  2649:       for(j=1; j<=nlstate*nlstate;j++)
1.53      brouard  2650:        for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
                   2651:          trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];
1.117     brouard  2652:     
1.53      brouard  2653: 
1.117     brouard  2654:      for(ij=1;ij<=nlstate*nlstate;ij++)
                   2655:       for(ji=1;ji<=nlstate*nlstate;ji++)
                   2656:        varhe[ij][ji][(int)age] =0.;
1.53      brouard  2657: 
                   2658:      printf("%d|",(int)age);fflush(stdout);
                   2659:      fprintf(ficlog,"%d|",(int)age);fflush(ficlog);
                   2660:      for(h=0;h<=nhstepm-1;h++){
                   2661:       for(k=0;k<=nhstepm-1;k++){
1.74      brouard  2662:        matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
                   2663:        matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate*nlstate,gradg[k]);
1.117     brouard  2664:        for(ij=1;ij<=nlstate*nlstate;ij++)
                   2665:          for(ji=1;ji<=nlstate*nlstate;ji++)
                   2666:            varhe[ij][ji][(int)age] += doldm[ij][ji]*hf*hf;
1.53      brouard  2667:       }
                   2668:     }
                   2669:     /* Computing expectancies */
1.117     brouard  2670:     hpxij(p3matm,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm, savm, cij);  
1.53      brouard  2671:     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                   2672:       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
                   2673:        for (h=0, eij[i][j][(int)age]=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
1.117     brouard  2674:          eij[i][j][(int)age] += (p3matm[i][j][h]+p3matm[i][j][h+1])/2.0*hf;
1.53      brouard  2675:          
1.117     brouard  2676:          /* if((int)age==70)printf("i=%2d,j=%2d,h=%2d,age=%3d,%9.4f,%9.4f,%9.4f\n",i,j,h,(int)age,p3mat[i][j][h],hf,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
1.53      brouard  2677: 
                   2678:        }
                   2679: 
1.117     brouard  2680:     fprintf(ficresstdeij,"%3.0f",age );
                   2681:     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
                   2682:       eip=0.;
                   2683:       vip=0.;
                   2684:       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
                   2685:        eip += eij[i][j][(int)age];
                   2686:        for(k=1; k<=nlstate;k++) /* Sum on j and k of cov(eij,eik) */
                   2687:          vip += varhe[(j-1)*nlstate+i][(k-1)*nlstate+i][(int)age];
                   2688:        fprintf(ficresstdeij," %9.4f (%.4f)", eij[i][j][(int)age], sqrt(varhe[(j-1)*nlstate+i][(j-1)*nlstate+i][(int)age]) );
                   2689:       }
                   2690:       fprintf(ficresstdeij," %9.4f (%.4f)", eip, sqrt(vip));
                   2691:     }
                   2692:     fprintf(ficresstdeij,"\n");
                   2693: 
                   2694:     fprintf(ficrescveij,"%3.0f",age );
1.53      brouard  2695:     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                   2696:       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
1.117     brouard  2697:        cptj= (j-1)*nlstate+i;
                   2698:        for(i2=1; i2<=nlstate;i2++)
                   2699:          for(j2=1; j2<=nlstate;j2++){
                   2700:            cptj2= (j2-1)*nlstate+i2;
                   2701:            if(cptj2 <= cptj)
                   2702:              fprintf(ficrescveij," %.4f", varhe[cptj][cptj2][(int)age]);
                   2703:          }
1.53      brouard  2704:       }
1.117     brouard  2705:     fprintf(ficrescveij,"\n");
1.53      brouard  2706:    
                   2707:   }
1.117     brouard  2708:   free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
                   2709:   free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate);
                   2710:   free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate*nlstate);
                   2711:   free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
                   2712:   free_ma3x(p3matm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
                   2713:   free_ma3x(p3matp,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
1.53      brouard  2714:   printf("\n");
                   2715:   fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
                   2716: 
1.117     brouard  2717:   free_vector(xm,1,npar);
1.53      brouard  2718:   free_vector(xp,1,npar);
1.74      brouard  2719:   free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,npar);
                   2720:   free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate);
                   2721:   free_ma3x(varhe,1,nlstate*nlstate,1,nlstate*nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
1.53      brouard  2722: }
                   2723: 
                   2724: /************ Variance ******************/
1.105     lievre   2725: void varevsij(char optionfilefiname[], double ***vareij, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij, int estepm, int cptcov, int cptcod, int popbased, int mobilav, char strstart[])
1.53      brouard  2726: {
                   2727:   /* Variance of health expectancies */
                   2728:   /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double ** savm,double ftolpl);*/
                   2729:   /* double **newm;*/
                   2730:   double **dnewm,**doldm;
                   2731:   double **dnewmp,**doldmp;
                   2732:   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm ;
                   2733:   int k, cptcode;
                   2734:   double *xp;
                   2735:   double **gp, **gm;  /* for var eij */
                   2736:   double ***gradg, ***trgradg; /*for var eij */
                   2737:   double **gradgp, **trgradgp; /* for var p point j */
                   2738:   double *gpp, *gmp; /* for var p point j */
                   2739:   double **varppt; /* for var p point j nlstate to nlstate+ndeath */
                   2740:   double ***p3mat;
                   2741:   double age,agelim, hf;
                   2742:   double ***mobaverage;
                   2743:   int theta;
                   2744:   char digit[4];
1.55      lievre   2745:   char digitp[25];
1.53      brouard  2746: 
                   2747:   char fileresprobmorprev[FILENAMELENGTH];
                   2748: 
1.55      lievre   2749:   if(popbased==1){
1.58      lievre   2750:     if(mobilav!=0)
1.55      lievre   2751:       strcpy(digitp,"-populbased-mobilav-");
                   2752:     else strcpy(digitp,"-populbased-nomobil-");
                   2753:   }
                   2754:   else 
1.53      brouard  2755:     strcpy(digitp,"-stablbased-");
1.56      lievre   2756: 
1.54      brouard  2757:   if (mobilav!=0) {
1.53      brouard  2758:     mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
1.54      brouard  2759:     if (movingaverage(probs, bage, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
                   2760:       fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
                   2761:       printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
                   2762:     }
1.53      brouard  2763:   }
                   2764: 
                   2765:   strcpy(fileresprobmorprev,"prmorprev"); 
                   2766:   sprintf(digit,"%-d",ij);
                   2767:   /*printf("DIGIT=%s, ij=%d ijr=%-d|\n",digit, ij,ij);*/
                   2768:   strcat(fileresprobmorprev,digit); /* Tvar to be done */
                   2769:   strcat(fileresprobmorprev,digitp); /* Popbased or not, mobilav or not */
                   2770:   strcat(fileresprobmorprev,fileres);
                   2771:   if((ficresprobmorprev=fopen(fileresprobmorprev,"w"))==NULL) {
                   2772:     printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobmorprev);
                   2773:     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobmorprev);
                   2774:   }
                   2775:   printf("Computing total mortality p.j=w1*p1j+w2*p2j+..: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobmorprev);
1.105     lievre   2776:  
1.53      brouard  2777:   fprintf(ficlog,"Computing total mortality p.j=w1*p1j+w2*p2j+..: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobmorprev);
1.117     brouard  2778:   pstamp(ficresprobmorprev);
1.66      brouard  2779:   fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"# probabilities of dying before estepm=%d months for people of exact age and weighted probabilities w1*p1j+w2*p2j+... stand dev in()\n",estepm);
1.53      brouard  2780:   fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"# Age cov=%-d",ij);
                   2781:   for(j=nlstate+1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
                   2782:     fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," p.%-d SE",j);
                   2783:     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                   2784:       fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," w%1d p%-d%-d",i,i,j);
                   2785:   }  
                   2786:   fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"\n");
1.88      brouard  2787:   fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Routine varevsij");
1.106     brouard  2788:   /* fprintf(fichtm, "#Local time at start: %s", strstart);*/
1.87      brouard  2789:   fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> Computing probabilities of dying over estepm months as a weighted average (i.e global mortality independent of initial healh state)</h4></li>\n");
                   2790:   fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>%s  <br>\n",digitp);
                   2791: /*   } */
1.53      brouard  2792:   varppt = matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
1.117     brouard  2793:   pstamp(ficresvij);
                   2794:   fprintf(ficresvij,"# Variance and covariance of health expectancies e.j \n#  (weighted average of eij where weights are ");
                   2795:   if(popbased==1)
                   2796:     fprintf(ficresvij,"the age specific prevalence observed in the population i.e cross-sectionally\n in each health state (popbased=1)");
                   2797:   else
                   2798:     fprintf(ficresvij,"the age specific period (stable) prevalences in each health state \n");
1.53      brouard  2799:   fprintf(ficresvij,"# Age");
                   2800:   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                   2801:     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
1.117     brouard  2802:       fprintf(ficresvij," Cov(e.%1d, e.%1d)",i,j);
1.53      brouard  2803:   fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
                   2804: 
                   2805:   xp=vector(1,npar);
                   2806:   dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
                   2807:   doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
                   2808:   dnewmp= matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar);
                   2809:   doldmp= matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
                   2810: 
                   2811:   gradgp=matrix(1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
                   2812:   gpp=vector(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
                   2813:   gmp=vector(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
                   2814:   trgradgp =matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar); /* mu or p point j*/
                   2815:   
                   2816:   if(estepm < stepm){
                   2817:     printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
                   2818:   }
                   2819:   else  hstepm=estepm;   
                   2820:   /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
                   2821:   /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm. 
                   2822:      nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim 
                   2823:      nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin. 
                   2824:      Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size
                   2825:      and note for a fixed period like k years */
                   2826:   /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
                   2827:      survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
1.66      brouard  2828:      means that if the survival funtion is printed every two years of age and if
1.53      brouard  2829:      you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same 
                   2830:      results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.
                   2831:   */
                   2832:   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */ 
                   2833:   agelim = AGESUP;
                   2834:   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
                   2835:     nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */ 
                   2836:     nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
                   2837:     p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
                   2838:     gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
                   2839:     gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
                   2840:     gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
                   2841: 
                   2842: 
                   2843:     for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
1.66      brouard  2844:       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient x + delta*/
1.53      brouard  2845:        xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
                   2846:       }
                   2847:       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
                   2848:       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
                   2849: 
                   2850:       if (popbased==1) {
1.54      brouard  2851:        if(mobilav ==0){
1.53      brouard  2852:          for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                   2853:            prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
1.54      brouard  2854:        }else{ /* mobilav */ 
1.53      brouard  2855:          for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                   2856:            prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
                   2857:        }
                   2858:       }
                   2859:   
                   2860:       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
                   2861:        for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
                   2862:          for(i=1, gp[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
                   2863:            gp[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
                   2864:        }
                   2865:       }
1.66      brouard  2866:       /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
                   2867:          computed over hstepm matrices product = hstepm*stepm months) 
                   2868:          as a weighted average of prlim.
                   2869:       */
1.69      brouard  2870:       for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
1.68      lievre   2871:        for(i=1,gpp[j]=0.; i<= nlstate; i++)
1.53      brouard  2872:          gpp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
                   2873:       }    
1.66      brouard  2874:       /* end probability of death */
1.53      brouard  2875: 
1.66      brouard  2876:       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient x - delta */
1.53      brouard  2877:        xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
                   2878:       hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
                   2879:       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
                   2880:  
                   2881:       if (popbased==1) {
1.54      brouard  2882:        if(mobilav ==0){
1.53      brouard  2883:          for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                   2884:            prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
1.54      brouard  2885:        }else{ /* mobilav */ 
1.53      brouard  2886:          for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                   2887:            prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
                   2888:        }
                   2889:       }
                   2890: 
                   2891:       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
                   2892:        for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
                   2893:          for(i=1, gm[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
                   2894:            gm[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
                   2895:        }
                   2896:       }
1.66      brouard  2897:       /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
                   2898:          computed over hstepm matrices product = hstepm*stepm months) 
                   2899:          as a weighted average of prlim.
                   2900:       */
1.69      brouard  2901:       for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
1.68      lievre   2902:        for(i=1,gmp[j]=0.; i<= nlstate; i++)
                   2903:          gmp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
1.53      brouard  2904:       }    
1.66      brouard  2905:       /* end probability of death */
1.53      brouard  2906: 
                   2907:       for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++) /* vareij */
                   2908:        for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
                   2909:          gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];
                   2910:        }
1.68      lievre   2911: 
1.53      brouard  2912:       for(j=nlstate+1; j<= nlstate+ndeath; j++){ /* var mu */
                   2913:        gradgp[theta][j]= (gpp[j]-gmp[j])/2./delti[theta];
                   2914:       }
                   2915: 
                   2916:     } /* End theta */
                   2917: 
                   2918:     trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar); /* veij */
                   2919: 
                   2920:     for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++) /* veij */
                   2921:       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
                   2922:        for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
                   2923:          trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];
                   2924: 
                   2925:     for(j=nlstate+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) /* mu */
1.69      brouard  2926:       for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
1.53      brouard  2927:        trgradgp[j][theta]=gradgp[theta][j];
1.69      brouard  2928:   
1.53      brouard  2929: 
                   2930:     hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
                   2931:     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
                   2932:       for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
                   2933:        vareij[i][j][(int)age] =0.;
                   2934: 
                   2935:     for(h=0;h<=nhstepm;h++){
                   2936:       for(k=0;k<=nhstepm;k++){
                   2937:        matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
                   2938:        matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg[k]);
                   2939:        for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
                   2940:          for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
                   2941:            vareij[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j]*hf*hf;
                   2942:       }
                   2943:     }
1.70      brouard  2944:   
1.53      brouard  2945:     /* pptj */
                   2946:     matprod2(dnewmp,trgradgp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
                   2947:     matprod2(doldmp,dnewmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,gradgp);
1.70      brouard  2948:     for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
                   2949:       for(i=nlstate+1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)
1.53      brouard  2950:        varppt[j][i]=doldmp[j][i];
                   2951:     /* end ppptj */
1.66      brouard  2952:     /*  x centered again */
1.53      brouard  2953:     hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
                   2954:     prevalim(prlim,nlstate,x,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
                   2955:  
                   2956:     if (popbased==1) {
1.54      brouard  2957:       if(mobilav ==0){
1.53      brouard  2958:        for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                   2959:          prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
1.54      brouard  2960:       }else{ /* mobilav */ 
1.53      brouard  2961:        for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                   2962:          prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
                   2963:       }
                   2964:     }
1.70      brouard  2965:              
1.66      brouard  2966:     /* This for computing probability of death (h=1 means
                   2967:        computed over hstepm (estepm) matrices product = hstepm*stepm months) 
                   2968:        as a weighted average of prlim.
                   2969:     */
1.68      lievre   2970:     for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
                   2971:       for(i=1,gmp[j]=0.;i<= nlstate; i++) 
1.53      brouard  2972:        gmp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1]; 
                   2973:     }    
1.66      brouard  2974:     /* end probability of death */
1.53      brouard  2975: 
                   2976:     fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"%3d %d ",(int) age, ij);
                   2977:     for(j=nlstate+1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
                   2978:       fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," %11.3e %11.3e",gmp[j], sqrt(varppt[j][j]));
                   2979:       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
                   2980:        fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," %11.3e %11.3e ",prlim[i][i],p3mat[i][j][1]);
                   2981:       }
                   2982:     } 
                   2983:     fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"\n");
                   2984: 
                   2985:     fprintf(ficresvij,"%.0f ",age );
                   2986:     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                   2987:       for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
                   2988:        fprintf(ficresvij," %.4f", vareij[i][j][(int)age]);
                   2989:       }
                   2990:     fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
                   2991:     free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
                   2992:     free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
                   2993:     free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
                   2994:     free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
                   2995:     free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
                   2996:   } /* End age */
                   2997:   free_vector(gpp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
                   2998:   free_vector(gmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
                   2999:   free_matrix(gradgp,1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
                   3000:   free_matrix(trgradgp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar); /* mu or p point j*/
                   3001:   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset noparametric;set nolabel; set ter png small;set size 0.65, 0.65");
                   3002:   /* for(j=nlstate+1; j<= nlstate+ndeath; j++){ *//* Only the first actually */
                   3003:   fprintf(ficgp,"\n set log y; set nolog x;set xlabel \"Age\"; set ylabel \"Force of mortality (year-1)\";");
1.67      brouard  3004: /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n plot \"%s\"  u 1:($3*%6.3f) not w l 1 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
                   3005: /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)*%6.3f) t \"95\%% interval\" w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
                   3006: /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)*%6.3f) not w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm); */
1.88      brouard  3007:   fprintf(ficgp,"\n plot \"%s\"  u 1:($3) not w l 1 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
                   3008:   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)) t \"95\%% interval\" w l 2 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
                   3009:   fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)) not w l 2 ",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
                   3010:   fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> File (multiple files are possible if covariates are present): <A href=\"%s\">%s</a>\n",subdirf(fileresprobmorprev),subdirf(fileresprobmorprev));
                   3011:   fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> Probability is computed over estepm=%d months. <br> <img src=\"%s%s.png\"> <br>\n", estepm,subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"varmuptjgr",digitp),digit);
1.53      brouard  3012:   /*  fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> Probability is computed over estepm=%d months and then divided by estepm and multiplied by %.0f in order to have the probability to die over a year <br> <img src=\"varmuptjgr%s%s.png\"> <br>\n", stepm,YEARM,digitp,digit);
                   3013: */
1.88      brouard  3014: /*   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"varmuptjgr%s%s%s.png\";replot;",digitp,optionfilefiname,digit); */
1.89      brouard  3015:   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%s.png\";replot;\n",subdirf3(optionfilefiname,"varmuptjgr",digitp),digit);
1.53      brouard  3016: 
                   3017:   free_vector(xp,1,npar);
                   3018:   free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
                   3019:   free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
                   3020:   free_matrix(doldmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
                   3021:   free_matrix(dnewmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar);
                   3022:   free_matrix(varppt,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
1.55      lievre   3023:   if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
1.53      brouard  3024:   fclose(ficresprobmorprev);
1.88      brouard  3025:   fflush(ficgp);
                   3026:   fflush(fichtm); 
1.84      brouard  3027: }  /* end varevsij */
1.53      brouard  3028: 
                   3029: /************ Variance of prevlim ******************/
1.105     lievre   3030: void varprevlim(char fileres[], double **varpl, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij, char strstart[])
1.53      brouard  3031: {
                   3032:   /* Variance of prevalence limit */
1.59      brouard  3033:   /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double **savm,double ftolpl);*/
1.53      brouard  3034:   double **newm;
                   3035:   double **dnewm,**doldm;
                   3036:   int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm;
                   3037:   int k, cptcode;
                   3038:   double *xp;
                   3039:   double *gp, *gm;
                   3040:   double **gradg, **trgradg;
                   3041:   double age,agelim;
                   3042:   int theta;
1.117     brouard  3043:   
                   3044:   pstamp(ficresvpl);
                   3045:   fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Standard deviation of period (stable) prevalences \n");
1.53      brouard  3046:   fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Age");
                   3047:   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                   3048:       fprintf(ficresvpl," %1d-%1d",i,i);
                   3049:   fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
                   3050: 
                   3051:   xp=vector(1,npar);
                   3052:   dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
                   3053:   doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
                   3054:   
                   3055:   hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
                   3056:   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */ 
                   3057:   agelim = AGESUP;
                   3058:   for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
                   3059:     nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */ 
                   3060:     if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;
                   3061:     nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */
                   3062:     gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);
                   3063:     gp=vector(1,nlstate);
                   3064:     gm=vector(1,nlstate);
                   3065: 
                   3066:     for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
                   3067:       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */
                   3068:        xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
                   3069:       }
                   3070:       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
                   3071:       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
                   3072:        gp[i] = prlim[i][i];
                   3073:     
                   3074:       for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */
                   3075:        xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
                   3076:       prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
                   3077:       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
                   3078:        gm[i] = prlim[i][i];
                   3079: 
                   3080:       for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
                   3081:        gradg[theta][i]= (gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];
                   3082:     } /* End theta */
                   3083: 
                   3084:     trgradg =matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
                   3085: 
                   3086:     for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
                   3087:       for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
                   3088:        trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
                   3089: 
                   3090:     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
                   3091:       varpl[i][(int)age] =0.;
                   3092:     matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
                   3093:     matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);
                   3094:     for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
                   3095:       varpl[i][(int)age] = doldm[i][i]; /* Covariances are useless */
                   3096: 
                   3097:     fprintf(ficresvpl,"%.0f ",age );
                   3098:     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                   3099:       fprintf(ficresvpl," %.5f (%.5f)",prlim[i][i],sqrt(varpl[i][(int)age]));
                   3100:     fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
                   3101:     free_vector(gp,1,nlstate);
                   3102:     free_vector(gm,1,nlstate);
                   3103:     free_matrix(gradg,1,npar,1,nlstate);
                   3104:     free_matrix(trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar);
                   3105:   } /* End age */
                   3106: 
                   3107:   free_vector(xp,1,npar);
                   3108:   free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
                   3109:   free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
                   3110: 
                   3111: }
                   3112: 
                   3113: /************ Variance of one-step probabilities  ******************/
1.105     lievre   3114: void varprob(char optionfilefiname[], double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, double bage, double fage, int ij, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax, char strstart[])
1.53      brouard  3115: {
                   3116:   int i, j=0,  i1, k1, l1, t, tj;
                   3117:   int k2, l2, j1,  z1;
                   3118:   int k=0,l, cptcode;
                   3119:   int first=1, first1;
                   3120:   double cv12, mu1, mu2, lc1, lc2, v12, v21, v11, v22,v1,v2, c12, tnalp;
                   3121:   double **dnewm,**doldm;
                   3122:   double *xp;
                   3123:   double *gp, *gm;
                   3124:   double **gradg, **trgradg;
                   3125:   double **mu;
                   3126:   double age,agelim, cov[NCOVMAX];
                   3127:   double std=2.0; /* Number of standard deviation wide of confidence ellipsoids */
                   3128:   int theta;
                   3129:   char fileresprob[FILENAMELENGTH];
                   3130:   char fileresprobcov[FILENAMELENGTH];
                   3131:   char fileresprobcor[FILENAMELENGTH];
                   3132: 
                   3133:   double ***varpij;
                   3134: 
                   3135:   strcpy(fileresprob,"prob"); 
                   3136:   strcat(fileresprob,fileres);
                   3137:   if((ficresprob=fopen(fileresprob,"w"))==NULL) {
                   3138:     printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
                   3139:     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
                   3140:   }
                   3141:   strcpy(fileresprobcov,"probcov"); 
                   3142:   strcat(fileresprobcov,fileres);
                   3143:   if((ficresprobcov=fopen(fileresprobcov,"w"))==NULL) {
                   3144:     printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
                   3145:     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
                   3146:   }
                   3147:   strcpy(fileresprobcor,"probcor"); 
                   3148:   strcat(fileresprobcor,fileres);
                   3149:   if((ficresprobcor=fopen(fileresprobcor,"w"))==NULL) {
                   3150:     printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
                   3151:     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
                   3152:   }
                   3153:   printf("Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
                   3154:   fprintf(ficlog,"Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
                   3155:   printf("Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
                   3156:   fprintf(ficlog,"Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
                   3157:   printf("and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
                   3158:   fprintf(ficlog,"and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
1.117     brouard  3159:   pstamp(ficresprob);
1.53      brouard  3160:   fprintf(ficresprob,"#One-step probabilities and stand. devi in ()\n");
                   3161:   fprintf(ficresprob,"# Age");
1.117     brouard  3162:   pstamp(ficresprobcov);
1.53      brouard  3163:   fprintf(ficresprobcov,"#One-step probabilities and covariance matrix\n");
                   3164:   fprintf(ficresprobcov,"# Age");
1.117     brouard  3165:   pstamp(ficresprobcor);
1.53      brouard  3166:   fprintf(ficresprobcor,"#One-step probabilities and correlation matrix\n");
1.117     brouard  3167:   fprintf(ficresprobcor,"# Age");
1.53      brouard  3168: 
                   3169: 
                   3170:   for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                   3171:     for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
                   3172:       fprintf(ficresprob," p%1d-%1d (SE)",i,j);
                   3173:       fprintf(ficresprobcov," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);
                   3174:       fprintf(ficresprobcor," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);
                   3175:     }  
1.69      brouard  3176:  /* fprintf(ficresprob,"\n");
1.53      brouard  3177:   fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n");
                   3178:   fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n");
1.69      brouard  3179:  */
                   3180:  xp=vector(1,npar);
1.53      brouard  3181:   dnewm=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
                   3182:   doldm=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
                   3183:   mu=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath), (int) bage, (int)fage);
                   3184:   varpij=ma3x(1,nlstate*(nlstate+ndeath),1,nlstate*(nlstate+ndeath),(int) bage, (int) fage);
                   3185:   first=1;
1.88      brouard  3186:   fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Routine varprob");
                   3187:   fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> Computing and drawing one step probabilities with their confidence intervals</h4></li>\n");
                   3188:   fprintf(fichtm,"\n");
                   3189: 
1.95      brouard  3190:   fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> <a href=\"%s\">Matrix of variance-covariance of pairs of step probabilities (drawings)</a></h4></li>\n",optionfilehtmcov);
                   3191:   fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<h4>Matrix of variance-covariance of pairs of step probabilities</h4>\n\
1.91      brouard  3192:   file %s<br>\n",optionfilehtmcov);
                   3193:   fprintf(fichtmcov,"\nEllipsoids of confidence centered on point (p<inf>ij</inf>, p<inf>kl</inf>) are estimated\
                   3194: and drawn. It helps understanding how is the covariance between two incidences.\
                   3195:  They are expressed in year<sup>-1</sup> in order to be less dependent of stepm.<br>\n");
                   3196:   fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br> Contour plot corresponding to x'cov<sup>-1</sup>x = 4 (where x is the column vector (pij,pkl)) are drawn. \
                   3197: It can be understood this way: if pij and pkl where uncorrelated the (2x2) matrix of covariance \
                   3198: would have been (1/(var pij), 0 , 0, 1/(var pkl)), and the confidence interval would be 2 \
                   3199: standard deviations wide on each axis. <br>\
                   3200:  Now, if both incidences are correlated (usual case) we diagonalised the inverse of the covariance matrix\
                   3201:  and made the appropriate rotation to look at the uncorrelated principal directions.<br>\
                   3202: To be simple, these graphs help to understand the significativity of each parameter in relation to a second other one.<br> \n");
1.53      brouard  3203: 
                   3204:   cov[1]=1;
                   3205:   tj=cptcoveff;
                   3206:   if (cptcovn<1) {tj=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
                   3207:   j1=0;
                   3208:   for(t=1; t<=tj;t++){
                   3209:     for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[t];i1++){ 
                   3210:       j1++;
                   3211:       if  (cptcovn>0) {
                   3212:        fprintf(ficresprob, "\n#********** Variable "); 
                   3213:        for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprob, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
1.69      brouard  3214:        fprintf(ficresprob, "**********\n#\n");
1.53      brouard  3215:        fprintf(ficresprobcov, "\n#********** Variable "); 
                   3216:        for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprobcov, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
1.69      brouard  3217:        fprintf(ficresprobcov, "**********\n#\n");
1.53      brouard  3218:        
                   3219:        fprintf(ficgp, "\n#********** Variable "); 
1.69      brouard  3220:        for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficgp, " V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
                   3221:        fprintf(ficgp, "**********\n#\n");
1.53      brouard  3222:        
                   3223:        
1.96      brouard  3224:        fprintf(fichtmcov, "\n<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">********** Variable "); 
1.53      brouard  3225:        for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(fichtm, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
1.96      brouard  3226:        fprintf(fichtmcov, "**********\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
1.53      brouard  3227:        
                   3228:        fprintf(ficresprobcor, "\n#********** Variable ");    
                   3229:        for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprobcor, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
1.69      brouard  3230:        fprintf(ficresprobcor, "**********\n#");    
1.53      brouard  3231:       }
                   3232:       
                   3233:       for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ 
                   3234:        cov[2]=age;
                   3235:        for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {
                   3236:          cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[j1][Tvar[k]]];
                   3237:        }
                   3238:        for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];
                   3239:        for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)
                   3240:          cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];
                   3241:        
                   3242:        gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
                   3243:        trgradg=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
                   3244:        gp=vector(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
                   3245:        gm=vector(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
                   3246:     
                   3247:        for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
                   3248:          for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
1.74      brouard  3249:            xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:(double)0);
1.53      brouard  3250:          
                   3251:          pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
                   3252:          
                   3253:          k=0;
                   3254:          for(i=1; i<= (nlstate); i++){
                   3255:            for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
                   3256:              k=k+1;
                   3257:              gp[k]=pmmij[i][j];
                   3258:            }
                   3259:          }
                   3260:          
                   3261:          for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
1.74      brouard  3262:            xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:(double)0);
1.53      brouard  3263:     
                   3264:          pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
                   3265:          k=0;
                   3266:          for(i=1; i<=(nlstate); i++){
                   3267:            for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
                   3268:              k=k+1;
                   3269:              gm[k]=pmmij[i][j];
                   3270:            }
                   3271:          }
                   3272:      
                   3273:          for(i=1; i<= (nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath); i++) 
1.74      brouard  3274:            gradg[theta][i]=(gp[i]-gm[i])/(double)2./delti[theta];  
1.53      brouard  3275:        }
                   3276: 
                   3277:        for(j=1; j<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)
                   3278:          for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
                   3279:            trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
                   3280:        
                   3281:        matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar,1,npar,matcov); 
                   3282:        matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),gradg);
1.59      brouard  3283:        free_vector(gp,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
                   3284:        free_vector(gm,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
                   3285:        free_matrix(trgradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
                   3286:        free_matrix(gradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
                   3287: 
1.53      brouard  3288:        pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate);
                   3289:        
                   3290:        k=0;
                   3291:        for(i=1; i<=(nlstate); i++){
                   3292:          for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
                   3293:            k=k+1;
                   3294:            mu[k][(int) age]=pmmij[i][j];
                   3295:          }
                   3296:        }
                   3297:        for(i=1;i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++)
                   3298:          for(j=1;j<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)
                   3299:            varpij[i][j][(int)age] = doldm[i][j];
                   3300: 
                   3301:        /*printf("\n%d ",(int)age);
1.59      brouard  3302:          for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++){
                   3303:          printf("%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));
                   3304:          fprintf(ficlog,"%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));
                   3305:          }*/
1.53      brouard  3306: 
                   3307:        fprintf(ficresprob,"\n%d ",(int)age);
                   3308:        fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n%d ",(int)age);
                   3309:        fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n%d ",(int)age);
                   3310: 
                   3311:        for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++)
                   3312:          fprintf(ficresprob,"%11.3e (%11.3e) ",mu[i][(int) age],sqrt(varpij[i][i][(int)age]));
                   3313:        for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++){
                   3314:          fprintf(ficresprobcov,"%11.3e ",mu[i][(int) age]);
                   3315:          fprintf(ficresprobcor,"%11.3e ",mu[i][(int) age]);
                   3316:        }
                   3317:        i=0;
                   3318:        for (k=1; k<=(nlstate);k++){
                   3319:          for (l=1; l<=(nlstate+ndeath);l++){ 
                   3320:            i=i++;
                   3321:            fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n%d %d-%d",(int)age,k,l);
                   3322:            fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n%d %d-%d",(int)age,k,l);
                   3323:            for (j=1; j<=i;j++){
                   3324:              fprintf(ficresprobcov," %11.3e",varpij[i][j][(int)age]);
                   3325:              fprintf(ficresprobcor," %11.3e",varpij[i][j][(int) age]/sqrt(varpij[i][i][(int) age])/sqrt(varpij[j][j][(int)age]));
                   3326:            }
                   3327:          }
                   3328:        }/* end of loop for state */
                   3329:       } /* end of loop for age */
                   3330: 
                   3331:       /* Confidence intervalle of pij  */
                   3332:       /*
1.59      brouard  3333:        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset noparametric;unset label");
                   3334:        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;unset log x; set xlabel \"Age\";set ylabel \"probability (year-1)\"");
                   3335:        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65");
                   3336:        fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>Probability with  confidence intervals expressed in year<sup>-1</sup> :<a href=\"pijgr%s.png\">pijgr%s.png</A>, ",optionfilefiname,optionfilefiname);
                   3337:        fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br><img src=\"pijgr%s.png\"> ",optionfilefiname);
                   3338:        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"pijgr%s.png\"",optionfilefiname);
                   3339:        fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",k1,k2,xfilevarprob);
1.53      brouard  3340:       */
                   3341: 
                   3342:       /* Drawing ellipsoids of confidence of two variables p(k1-l1,k2-l2)*/
                   3343:       first1=1;
                   3344:       for (k2=1; k2<=(nlstate);k2++){
                   3345:        for (l2=1; l2<=(nlstate+ndeath);l2++){ 
                   3346:          if(l2==k2) continue;
                   3347:          j=(k2-1)*(nlstate+ndeath)+l2;
                   3348:          for (k1=1; k1<=(nlstate);k1++){
                   3349:            for (l1=1; l1<=(nlstate+ndeath);l1++){ 
                   3350:              if(l1==k1) continue;
                   3351:              i=(k1-1)*(nlstate+ndeath)+l1;
                   3352:              if(i<=j) continue;
                   3353:              for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ 
                   3354:                if ((int)age %5==0){
                   3355:                  v1=varpij[i][i][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
                   3356:                  v2=varpij[j][j][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
                   3357:                  cv12=varpij[i][j][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
                   3358:                  mu1=mu[i][(int) age]/stepm*YEARM ;
                   3359:                  mu2=mu[j][(int) age]/stepm*YEARM;
                   3360:                  c12=cv12/sqrt(v1*v2);
                   3361:                  /* Computing eigen value of matrix of covariance */
                   3362:                  lc1=((v1+v2)+sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;
                   3363:                  lc2=((v1+v2)-sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;
                   3364:                  /* Eigen vectors */
                   3365:                  v11=(1./sqrt(1+(v1-lc1)*(v1-lc1)/cv12/cv12));
                   3366:                  /*v21=sqrt(1.-v11*v11); *//* error */
                   3367:                  v21=(lc1-v1)/cv12*v11;
                   3368:                  v12=-v21;
                   3369:                  v22=v11;
                   3370:                  tnalp=v21/v11;
                   3371:                  if(first1==1){
                   3372:                    first1=0;
                   3373:                    printf("%d %d%d-%d%d mu %.4e %.4e Var %.4e %.4e cor %.3f cov %.4e Eig %.3e %.3e 1stv %.3f %.3f tang %.3f\nOthers in log...\n",(int) age,k1,l1,k2,l2,mu1,mu2,v1,v2,c12,cv12,lc1,lc2,v11,v21,tnalp);
                   3374:                  }
                   3375:                  fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d%d-%d%d mu %.4e %.4e Var %.4e %.4e cor %.3f cov %.4e Eig %.3e %.3e 1stv %.3f %.3f tan %.3f\n",(int) age,k1,l1,k2,l2,mu1,mu2,v1,v2,c12,cv12,lc1,lc2,v11,v21,tnalp);
                   3376:                  /*printf(fignu*/
                   3377:                  /* mu1+ v11*lc1*cost + v12*lc2*sin(t) */
                   3378:                  /* mu2+ v21*lc1*cost + v22*lc2*sin(t) */
                   3379:                  if(first==1){
                   3380:                    first=0;
                   3381:                    fprintf(ficgp,"\nset parametric;unset label");
                   3382:                    fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;set log x; set xlabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\";set ylabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\"",k1,l1,k2,l2);
                   3383:                    fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65");
1.91      brouard  3384:                    fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br>Ellipsoids of confidence cov(p%1d%1d,p%1d%1d) expressed in year<sup>-1</sup>\
1.88      brouard  3385:  :<a href=\"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\">\
                   3386: %s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png</A>, ",k1,l1,k2,l2,\
                   3387:                            subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2,\
                   3388:                            subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
1.91      brouard  3389:                    fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br><img src=\"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\"> ",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
                   3390:                    fprintf(fichtmcov,"\n<br> Correlation at age %d (%.3f),",(int) age, c12);
1.88      brouard  3391:                    fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\"",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
1.53      brouard  3392:                    fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu1,mu2);
                   3393:                    fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k1,l1,k2,l2);
                   3394:                    fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot [-pi:pi] %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not",\
                   3395:                            mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(lc2),\
                   3396:                            mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v22,sqrt(lc2));
                   3397:                  }else{
                   3398:                    first=0;
1.91      brouard  3399:                    fprintf(fichtmcov," %d (%.3f),",(int) age, c12);
1.53      brouard  3400:                    fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k1,l1,k2,l2);
                   3401:                    fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu1,mu2);
                   3402:                    fprintf(ficgp,"\nreplot %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not",\
                   3403:                            mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(lc2),\
                   3404:                            mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v22,sqrt(lc2));
                   3405:                  }/* if first */
                   3406:                } /* age mod 5 */
                   3407:              } /* end loop age */
1.88      brouard  3408:              fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\";replot;",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"varpijgr"), j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
1.53      brouard  3409:              first=1;
                   3410:            } /*l12 */
                   3411:          } /* k12 */
                   3412:        } /*l1 */
                   3413:       }/* k1 */
                   3414:     } /* loop covariates */
                   3415:   }
1.59      brouard  3416:   free_ma3x(varpij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) bage, (int)fage);
                   3417:   free_matrix(mu,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),(int) bage, (int)fage);
1.113     brouard  3418:   free_matrix(doldm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
                   3419:   free_matrix(dnewm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
1.53      brouard  3420:   free_vector(xp,1,npar);
                   3421:   fclose(ficresprob);
                   3422:   fclose(ficresprobcov);
                   3423:   fclose(ficresprobcor);
1.91      brouard  3424:   fflush(ficgp);
                   3425:   fflush(fichtmcov);
1.53      brouard  3426: }
                   3427: 
                   3428: 
                   3429: /******************* Printing html file ***********/
                   3430: void printinghtml(char fileres[], char title[], char datafile[], int firstpass, \
                   3431:                  int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[],\
                   3432:                  int imx,int jmin, int jmax, double jmeanint,char rfileres[],\
                   3433:                  int popforecast, int estepm ,\
                   3434:                  double jprev1, double mprev1,double anprev1, \
                   3435:                  double jprev2, double mprev2,double anprev2){
                   3436:   int jj1, k1, i1, cpt;
                   3437: 
1.107     brouard  3438:    fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><a href='#firstorder'>Result files (first order: no variance)</a>\n \
                   3439:    <li><a href='#secondorder'>Result files (second order (variance)</a>\n \
1.106     brouard  3440: </ul>");
1.107     brouard  3441:    fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><h4><a name='firstorder'>Result files (first order: no variance)</a></h4>\n \
1.96      brouard  3442:  - Observed prevalence in each state (during the period defined between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n ",
                   3443:           jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,subdirf2(fileres,"p"),subdirf2(fileres,"p"));
                   3444:    fprintf(fichtm,"\
                   3445:  - Estimated transition probabilities over %d (stepm) months: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n ",
                   3446:           stepm,subdirf2(fileres,"pij"),subdirf2(fileres,"pij"));
                   3447:    fprintf(fichtm,"\
1.117     brouard  3448:  - Period (stable) prevalence in each health state: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
1.96      brouard  3449:           subdirf2(fileres,"pl"),subdirf2(fileres,"pl"));
                   3450:    fprintf(fichtm,"\
1.117     brouard  3451:  - (a) Life expectancies by health status at initial age, (b) health expectancies by health status at initial age:  ei., eij (estepm=%2d months): \
1.96      brouard  3452:    <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n</li>",
1.88      brouard  3453:           estepm,subdirf2(fileres,"e"),subdirf2(fileres,"e"));
1.116     brouard  3454: 
1.53      brouard  3455: 
                   3456: fprintf(fichtm," \n<ul><li><b>Graphs</b></li><p>");
                   3457: 
                   3458:  m=cptcoveff;
                   3459:  if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
                   3460: 
                   3461:  jj1=0;
                   3462:  for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){
                   3463:    for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
                   3464:      jj1++;
                   3465:      if (cptcovn > 0) {
                   3466:        fprintf(fichtm,"<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">************ Results for covariates");
                   3467:        for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++) 
                   3468:         fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtab[jj1][cpt]]);
                   3469:        fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
                   3470:      }
                   3471:      /* Pij */
1.117     brouard  3472:      fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i, %d (stepm) months before: <a href=\"%s%d1.png\">%s%d1.png</a><br> \
                   3473: <img src=\"%s%d1.png\">",stepm,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1);     
1.53      brouard  3474:      /* Quasi-incidences */
1.85      brouard  3475:      fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i %d (stepm) months\
1.117     brouard  3476:  before but expressed in per year i.e. quasi incidences if stepm is small and probabilities too: <a href=\"%s%d2.png\">%s%d2.png</a><br> \
                   3477: <img src=\"%s%d2.png\">",stepm,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jj1); 
                   3478:        /* Period (stable) prevalence in each health state */
1.53      brouard  3479:        for(cpt=1; cpt<nlstate;cpt++){
1.117     brouard  3480:         fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Period (stable) prevalence in each health state : <a href=\"%s%d%d.png\">%s%d%d.png</a><br> \
                   3481: <img src=\"%s%d%d.png\">",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,jj1);
1.53      brouard  3482:        }
                   3483:      for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
1.117     brouard  3484:         fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Life expectancy by health state (%d) at initial age and its decomposition into health expectancies : <a href=\"%s%d%d.png\">%s%d%d.png</a> <br> \
                   3485: <img src=\"%s%d%d.png\">",cpt,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,jj1);
1.53      brouard  3486:      }
                   3487:    } /* end i1 */
                   3488:  }/* End k1 */
                   3489:  fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
                   3490: 
                   3491: 
1.96      brouard  3492:  fprintf(fichtm,"\
1.107     brouard  3493: \n<br><li><h4> <a name='secondorder'>Result files (second order: variances)</a></h4>\n\
1.96      brouard  3494:  - Parameter file with estimated parameters and covariance matrix: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n", rfileres,rfileres);
                   3495: 
                   3496:  fprintf(fichtm," - Variance of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
                   3497:         subdirf2(fileres,"prob"),subdirf2(fileres,"prob"));
                   3498:  fprintf(fichtm,"\
                   3499:  - Variance-covariance of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
                   3500:         subdirf2(fileres,"probcov"),subdirf2(fileres,"probcov"));
                   3501: 
                   3502:  fprintf(fichtm,"\
                   3503:  - Correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
                   3504:         subdirf2(fileres,"probcor"),subdirf2(fileres,"probcor"));
                   3505:  fprintf(fichtm,"\
1.117     brouard  3506:  - Variances and covariances of health expectancies by age and <b>initial health status</b> (cov(e<sup>ij</sup>,e<sup>kl</sup>)(estepm=%2d months): \
                   3507:    <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n</li>",
                   3508:           estepm,subdirf2(fileres,"cve"),subdirf2(fileres,"cve"));
                   3509:  fprintf(fichtm,"\
                   3510:  - (a) Health expectancies by health status at initial age (e<sup>ij</sup>) and standard errors (in parentheses) (b) life expectancies and standard errors (e<sup>i.</sup>=e<sup>i1</sup>+e<sup>i2</sup>+...)(estepm=%2d months): \
                   3511:    <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n</li>",
                   3512:           estepm,subdirf2(fileres,"stde"),subdirf2(fileres,"stde"));
                   3513:  fprintf(fichtm,"\
                   3514:  - Variances and covariances of health expectancies by age. Status (i) based health expectancies (in state j), eij are weighted by the period prevalences in each state i (if popbased=1, an additional computation is done using the cross-sectional prevalences (i.e population based) (estepm=%d months): <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n",
1.96      brouard  3515:         estepm, subdirf2(fileres,"v"),subdirf2(fileres,"v"));
                   3516:  fprintf(fichtm,"\
1.117     brouard  3517:  - Total life expectancy and total health expectancies to be spent in each health state e<sup>.j</sup> with their standard errors: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",
1.96      brouard  3518:         subdirf2(fileres,"t"),subdirf2(fileres,"t"));
                   3519:  fprintf(fichtm,"\
1.117     brouard  3520:  - Standard deviation of period (stable) prevalences: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n",\
1.88      brouard  3521:         subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"));
1.53      brouard  3522: 
1.76      brouard  3523: /*  if(popforecast==1) fprintf(fichtm,"\n */
                   3524: /*  - Prevalences forecasting: <a href=\"f%s\">f%s</a> <br>\n */
                   3525: /*  - Population forecasting (if popforecast=1): <a href=\"pop%s\">pop%s</a> <br>\n */
                   3526: /*     <br>",fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres); */
                   3527: /*  else  */
                   3528: /*    fprintf(fichtm,"\n No population forecast: popforecast = %d (instead of 1) or stepm = %d (instead of 1) or model=%s (instead of .)<br><br></li>\n",popforecast, stepm, model); */
1.96      brouard  3529:  fflush(fichtm);
                   3530:  fprintf(fichtm," <ul><li><b>Graphs</b></li><p>");
1.53      brouard  3531: 
                   3532:  m=cptcoveff;
                   3533:  if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
                   3534: 
                   3535:  jj1=0;
                   3536:  for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){
                   3537:    for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
                   3538:      jj1++;
                   3539:      if (cptcovn > 0) {
                   3540:        fprintf(fichtm,"<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">************ Results for covariates");
                   3541:        for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++) 
                   3542:         fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtab[jj1][cpt]]);
                   3543:        fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
                   3544:      }
                   3545:      for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
1.95      brouard  3546:        fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Observed (cross-sectional) and period (incidence based) \
                   3547: prevalence (with 95%% confidence interval) in state (%d): %s%d%d.png <br>\
1.90      brouard  3548: <img src=\"%s%d%d.png\">",cpt,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,jj1);  
1.53      brouard  3549:      }
1.96      brouard  3550:      fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Total life expectancy by age and \
                   3551: health expectancies in states (1) and (2): %s%d.png<br>\
                   3552: <img src=\"%s%d.png\">",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),jj1,subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),jj1);
1.53      brouard  3553:    } /* end i1 */
                   3554:  }/* End k1 */
                   3555:  fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
1.87      brouard  3556:  fflush(fichtm);
1.53      brouard  3557: }
                   3558: 
                   3559: /******************* Gnuplot file **************/
1.89      brouard  3560: void printinggnuplot(char fileres[], char optionfilefiname[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double fage , char pathc[], double p[]){
1.53      brouard  3561: 
1.88      brouard  3562:   char dirfileres[132],optfileres[132];
1.53      brouard  3563:   int m,cpt,k1,i,k,j,jk,k2,k3,ij,l;
                   3564:   int ng;
1.88      brouard  3565: /*   if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"a"))==NULL) { */
                   3566: /*     printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot); */
                   3567: /*     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot); */
                   3568: /*   } */
1.53      brouard  3569: 
1.54      brouard  3570:   /*#ifdef windows */
1.89      brouard  3571:   fprintf(ficgp,"cd \"%s\" \n",pathc);
1.54      brouard  3572:     /*#endif */
1.88      brouard  3573:   m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
                   3574: 
                   3575:   strcpy(dirfileres,optionfilefiname);
                   3576:   strcpy(optfileres,"vpl");
1.53      brouard  3577:  /* 1eme*/
                   3578:   for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {
                   3579:    for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {
1.88      brouard  3580:      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"v"),cpt,k1);
                   3581:      fprintf(ficgp,"\n#set out \"v%s%d%d.png\" \n",optionfilefiname,cpt,k1);
                   3582:      fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \n\
                   3583: set ylabel \"Probability\" \n\
                   3584: set ter png small\n\
                   3585: set size 0.65,0.65\n\
                   3586: plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",ageminpar,fage,subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1);
1.53      brouard  3587: 
                   3588:      for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
                   3589:        if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
                   3590:        else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
                   3591:      }
1.117     brouard  3592:      fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"Period (stable) prevalence\" w l 0,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+1.96*$3) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1);
1.53      brouard  3593:      for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
                   3594:        if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
                   3595:        else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
                   3596:      } 
1.88      brouard  3597:      fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"95\%% CI\" w l 1,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-1.96*$3) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"vpl"),k1-1,k1-1); 
1.53      brouard  3598:      for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
                   3599:        if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
                   3600:        else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
                   3601:      }  
1.88      brouard  3602:      fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 1,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d) t\"Observed prevalence \" w l 2",subdirf2(fileres,"p"),k1-1,k1-1,2+4*(cpt-1));
1.53      brouard  3603:    }
                   3604:   }
                   3605:   /*2 eme*/
                   3606:   
                   3607:   for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { 
1.88      brouard  3608:     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"e"),k1);
1.53      brouard  3609:     fprintf(ficgp,"set ylabel \"Years\" \nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nplot [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,fage);
                   3610:     
                   3611:     for (i=1; i<= nlstate+1 ; i ++) {
                   3612:       k=2*i;
1.88      brouard  3613:       fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
1.53      brouard  3614:       for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
                   3615:        if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
                   3616:        else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
                   3617:       }   
                   3618:       if (i== 1) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"TLE\" w l ,");
                   3619:       else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"LE in state (%d)\" w l ,",i-1);
1.88      brouard  3620:       fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-$3*2) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
1.53      brouard  3621:       for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
                   3622:        if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
                   3623:        else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
                   3624:       }   
                   3625:       fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");
1.88      brouard  3626:       fprintf(ficgp,"\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+$3*2) \"\%%lf",subdirf2(fileres,"t"),k1-1,k1-1);
1.53      brouard  3627:       for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
                   3628:        if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
                   3629:        else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
                   3630:       }   
                   3631:       if (i== (nlstate+1)) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0");
                   3632:       else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");
                   3633:     }
                   3634:   }
                   3635:   
                   3636:   /*3eme*/
                   3637:   
                   3638:   for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { 
                   3639:     for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {
1.117     brouard  3640:       /*       k=2+nlstate*(2*cpt-2); */
                   3641:       k=2+(nlstate+1)*(cpt-1);
1.88      brouard  3642:       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"exp"),cpt,k1);
                   3643:       fprintf(ficgp,"set ter png small\n\
                   3644: set size 0.65,0.65\n\
                   3645: plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d1\" w l",ageminpar,fage,subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k,cpt);
1.53      brouard  3646:       /*fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d-2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);
                   3647:        for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");
                   3648:        fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);
                   3649:        fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d+2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);
                   3650:        for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");
                   3651:        fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);
                   3652:        
                   3653:       */
                   3654:       for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {
1.117     brouard  3655:        fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k+i,cpt,i+1);
                   3656:        /*      fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k+2*i,cpt,i+1);*/
1.53      brouard  3657:        
                   3658:       } 
1.117     brouard  3659:       fprintf(ficgp," ,\"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d.\" w l",subdirf2(fileres,"e"),k1-1,k1-1,k+nlstate,cpt);
1.53      brouard  3660:     }
                   3661:   }
                   3662:   
1.76      brouard  3663:   /* CV preval stable (period) */
1.53      brouard  3664:   for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { 
1.76      brouard  3665:     for (cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate ; cpt ++) {
1.53      brouard  3666:       k=3;
1.88      brouard  3667:       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"p"),cpt,k1);
                   3668:       fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \n\
                   3669: set ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\n\
1.89      brouard  3670: unset log y\n\
1.88      brouard  3671: plot [%.f:%.f] \"%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",ageminpar,agemaxpar,subdirf2(fileres,"pij"),k1,k+cpt+1,k+1);
1.53      brouard  3672:       
1.83      lievre   3673:       for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++)
1.53      brouard  3674:        fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+i+1);
                   3675:       fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l",cpt,cpt+1);
                   3676:       
                   3677:       l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;
1.88      brouard  3678:       fprintf(ficgp,",\"%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",subdirf2(fileres,"pij"),k1,l+cpt+1,l+1);
1.53      brouard  3679:       for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {
                   3680:        l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;
                   3681:        fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",l+i+1);
                   3682:       }
                   3683:       fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l\n",cpt+1,cpt+1);   
                   3684:     } 
                   3685:   }  
                   3686:   
                   3687:   /* proba elementaires */
                   3688:   for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
                   3689:     for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
                   3690:       if (k != i) {
                   3691:        for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
                   3692:          fprintf(ficgp,"p%d=%f ",jk,p[jk]);
                   3693:          jk++; 
                   3694:          fprintf(ficgp,"\n");
                   3695:        }
                   3696:       }
                   3697:     }
                   3698:    }
                   3699: 
                   3700:    for(ng=1; ng<=2;ng++){ /* Number of graphics: first is probabilities second is incidence per year*/
                   3701:      for(jk=1; jk <=m; jk++) {
1.88      brouard  3702:        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"%s%d%d.png\" \n",subdirf2(optionfilefiname,"pe"),jk,ng); 
1.53      brouard  3703:        if (ng==2)
                   3704:         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ylabel \"Quasi-incidence per year\"\n");
                   3705:        else
                   3706:         fprintf(ficgp,"\nset title \"Probability\"\n");
                   3707:        fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nset log y\nplot  [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,agemaxpar);
                   3708:        i=1;
                   3709:        for(k2=1; k2<=nlstate; k2++) {
                   3710:         k3=i;
                   3711:         for(k=1; k<=(nlstate+ndeath); k++) {
                   3712:           if (k != k2){
                   3713:             if(ng==2)
                   3714:               fprintf(ficgp," %f*exp(p%d+p%d*x",YEARM/stepm,i,i+1);
                   3715:             else
                   3716:               fprintf(ficgp," exp(p%d+p%d*x",i,i+1);
                   3717:             ij=1;
                   3718:             for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++) {
                   3719:               if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {
                   3720:                 fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);
                   3721:                 ij++;
                   3722:               }
                   3723:               else
                   3724:                 fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);
                   3725:             }
                   3726:             fprintf(ficgp,")/(1");
                   3727:             
                   3728:             for(k1=1; k1 <=nlstate; k1++){   
                   3729:               fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1);
                   3730:               ij=1;
                   3731:               for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
                   3732:                 if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {
                   3733:                   fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);
                   3734:                   ij++;
                   3735:                 }
                   3736:                 else
                   3737:                   fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);
                   3738:               }
                   3739:               fprintf(ficgp,")");
                   3740:             }
                   3741:             fprintf(ficgp,") t \"p%d%d\" ", k2,k);
                   3742:             if ((k+k2)!= (nlstate*2+ndeath)) fprintf(ficgp,",");
                   3743:             i=i+ncovmodel;
                   3744:           }
                   3745:         } /* end k */
                   3746:        } /* end k2 */
                   3747:      } /* end jk */
                   3748:    } /* end ng */
1.88      brouard  3749:    fflush(ficgp); 
1.53      brouard  3750: }  /* end gnuplot */
                   3751: 
                   3752: 
                   3753: /*************** Moving average **************/
1.54      brouard  3754: int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav){
1.53      brouard  3755: 
                   3756:   int i, cpt, cptcod;
1.58      lievre   3757:   int modcovmax =1;
1.54      brouard  3758:   int mobilavrange, mob;
1.53      brouard  3759:   double age;
1.58      lievre   3760: 
                   3761:   modcovmax=2*cptcoveff;/* Max number of modalities. We suppose 
                   3762:                           a covariate has 2 modalities */
                   3763:   if (cptcovn<1) modcovmax=1; /* At least 1 pass */
                   3764: 
1.54      brouard  3765:   if(mobilav==1||mobilav ==3 ||mobilav==5 ||mobilav== 7){
                   3766:     if(mobilav==1) mobilavrange=5; /* default */
                   3767:     else mobilavrange=mobilav;
                   3768:     for (age=bage; age<=fage; age++)
                   3769:       for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
1.58      lievre   3770:        for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=modcovmax;cptcod++)
1.54      brouard  3771:          mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
                   3772:     /* We keep the original values on the extreme ages bage, fage and for 
                   3773:        fage+1 and bage-1 we use a 3 terms moving average; for fage+2 bage+2
                   3774:        we use a 5 terms etc. until the borders are no more concerned. 
                   3775:     */ 
                   3776:     for (mob=3;mob <=mobilavrange;mob=mob+2){
                   3777:       for (age=bage+(mob-1)/2; age<=fage-(mob-1)/2; age++){
                   3778:        for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
1.58      lievre   3779:          for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=modcovmax;cptcod++){
1.54      brouard  3780:            mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] =probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
                   3781:              for (cpt=1;cpt<=(mob-1)/2;cpt++){
                   3782:                mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age-cpt][i][cptcod];
                   3783:                mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age+cpt][i][cptcod];
                   3784:              }
                   3785:            mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]/mob;
                   3786:          }
1.53      brouard  3787:        }
1.54      brouard  3788:       }/* end age */
                   3789:     }/* end mob */
                   3790:   }else return -1;
                   3791:   return 0;
                   3792: }/* End movingaverage */
1.53      brouard  3793: 
                   3794: 
                   3795: /************** Forecasting ******************/
1.70      brouard  3796: prevforecast(char fileres[], double anproj1, double mproj1, double jproj1, double ageminpar, double agemax, double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double bage, double fage, int firstpass, int lastpass, double anproj2, double p[], int cptcoveff){
1.69      brouard  3797:   /* proj1, year, month, day of starting projection 
                   3798:      agemin, agemax range of age
                   3799:      dateprev1 dateprev2 range of dates during which prevalence is computed
1.70      brouard  3800:      anproj2 year of en of projection (same day and month as proj1).
1.69      brouard  3801:   */
1.73      lievre   3802:   int yearp, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j, k, c, cptcod, i, h, i1;
1.53      brouard  3803:   int *popage;
1.70      brouard  3804:   double agec; /* generic age */
                   3805:   double agelim, ppij, yp,yp1,yp2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean;
1.53      brouard  3806:   double *popeffectif,*popcount;
                   3807:   double ***p3mat;
1.55      lievre   3808:   double ***mobaverage;
1.53      brouard  3809:   char fileresf[FILENAMELENGTH];
                   3810: 
1.69      brouard  3811:   agelim=AGESUP;
1.84      brouard  3812:   prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
1.53      brouard  3813:  
                   3814:   strcpy(fileresf,"f"); 
                   3815:   strcat(fileresf,fileres);
                   3816:   if((ficresf=fopen(fileresf,"w"))==NULL) {
                   3817:     printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);
                   3818:     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);
                   3819:   }
                   3820:   printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);
                   3821:   fprintf(ficlog,"Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);
                   3822: 
                   3823:   if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
                   3824: 
1.54      brouard  3825:   if (mobilav!=0) {
1.53      brouard  3826:     mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
1.54      brouard  3827:     if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
                   3828:       fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
                   3829:       printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
                   3830:     }
1.53      brouard  3831:   }
                   3832: 
                   3833:   stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
                   3834:   if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;
1.74      brouard  3835:   if(estepm < stepm){
                   3836:     printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
                   3837:   }
                   3838:   else  hstepm=estepm;   
                   3839: 
1.53      brouard  3840:   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; 
1.69      brouard  3841:   yp1=modf(dateintmean,&yp);/* extracts integral of datemean in yp  and
                   3842:                                fractional in yp1 */
1.53      brouard  3843:   anprojmean=yp;
                   3844:   yp2=modf((yp1*12),&yp);
                   3845:   mprojmean=yp;
                   3846:   yp1=modf((yp2*30.5),&yp);
                   3847:   jprojmean=yp;
                   3848:   if(jprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;
                   3849:   if(mprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;
1.73      lievre   3850: 
                   3851:   i1=cptcoveff;
                   3852:   if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
1.53      brouard  3853:   
1.70      brouard  3854:   fprintf(ficresf,"# Mean day of interviews %.lf/%.lf/%.lf (%.2f) between %.2f and %.2f \n",jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean,dateintmean,dateprev1,dateprev2); 
1.53      brouard  3855:   
1.70      brouard  3856:   fprintf(ficresf,"#****** Routine prevforecast **\n");
1.73      lievre   3857: 
1.75      brouard  3858: /*           if (h==(int)(YEARM*yearp)){ */
1.73      lievre   3859:   for(cptcov=1, k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
1.53      brouard  3860:     for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){
                   3861:       k=k+1;
                   3862:       fprintf(ficresf,"\n#******");
                   3863:       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
1.70      brouard  3864:        fprintf(ficresf," V%d=%d, hpijx=probability over h years, hp.jx is weighted by observed prev ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
1.53      brouard  3865:       }
                   3866:       fprintf(ficresf,"******\n");
1.70      brouard  3867:       fprintf(ficresf,"# Covariate valuofcovar yearproj age");
                   3868:       for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){ 
                   3869:        for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)              
                   3870:           fprintf(ficresf," p%d%d",i,j);
                   3871:        fprintf(ficresf," p.%d",j);
                   3872:       }
1.74      brouard  3873:       for (yearp=0; yearp<=(anproj2-anproj1);yearp +=stepsize) { 
1.53      brouard  3874:        fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
1.70      brouard  3875:        fprintf(ficresf,"\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1+yearp);   
1.53      brouard  3876: 
1.71      brouard  3877:        for (agec=fage; agec>=(ageminpar-1); agec--){ 
1.70      brouard  3878:          nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agec)*YEARM/stepm); 
1.53      brouard  3879:          nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; 
                   3880:          p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
                   3881:          oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
1.70      brouard  3882:          hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agec,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
1.53      brouard  3883:        
                   3884:          for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
1.75      brouard  3885:            if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm ==yearp) {
1.69      brouard  3886:               fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
                   3887:               for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
                   3888:                 fprintf(ficresf,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
1.70      brouard  3889:              fprintf(ficresf,"%.f %.f ",anproj1+yearp,agec+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
1.53      brouard  3890:            } 
                   3891:            for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
1.70      brouard  3892:              ppij=0.;
1.71      brouard  3893:              for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {
1.53      brouard  3894:                if (mobilav==1) 
1.71      brouard  3895:                  ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agec][i][cptcod];
1.53      brouard  3896:                else {
1.71      brouard  3897:                  ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agec)][i][cptcod];
1.53      brouard  3898:                }
1.75      brouard  3899:                if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm== yearp) {
1.70      brouard  3900:                  fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", p3mat[i][j][h]);
1.75      brouard  3901:                }
                   3902:              } /* end i */
                   3903:              if (h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm==yearp) {
1.70      brouard  3904:                fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", ppij);
1.53      brouard  3905:              }
1.75      brouard  3906:            }/* end j */
                   3907:          } /* end h */
1.53      brouard  3908:          free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
1.75      brouard  3909:        } /* end agec */
                   3910:       } /* end yearp */
                   3911:     } /* end cptcod */
                   3912:   } /* end  cptcov */
1.53      brouard  3913:        
1.54      brouard  3914:   if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
1.53      brouard  3915: 
                   3916:   fclose(ficresf);
                   3917: }
1.70      brouard  3918: 
                   3919: /************** Forecasting *****not tested NB*************/
1.53      brouard  3920: populforecast(char fileres[], double anpyram,double mpyram,double jpyram,double ageminpar, double agemax,double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double agedeb, double fage, int popforecast, char popfile[], double anpyram1,double p[], int i2){
                   3921:   
                   3922:   int cpt, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j,k,c, cptcod, i,h;
                   3923:   int *popage;
1.69      brouard  3924:   double calagedatem, agelim, kk1, kk2;
1.53      brouard  3925:   double *popeffectif,*popcount;
                   3926:   double ***p3mat,***tabpop,***tabpopprev;
1.55      lievre   3927:   double ***mobaverage;
1.53      brouard  3928:   char filerespop[FILENAMELENGTH];
                   3929: 
                   3930:   tabpop= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
                   3931:   tabpopprev= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
                   3932:   agelim=AGESUP;
1.69      brouard  3933:   calagedatem=(anpyram+mpyram/12.+jpyram/365.-dateintmean)*YEARM;
1.53      brouard  3934:   
1.84      brouard  3935:   prevalence(probs, ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
1.53      brouard  3936:   
                   3937:   
                   3938:   strcpy(filerespop,"pop"); 
                   3939:   strcat(filerespop,fileres);
                   3940:   if((ficrespop=fopen(filerespop,"w"))==NULL) {
                   3941:     printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", filerespop);
                   3942:     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", filerespop);
                   3943:   }
                   3944:   printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", filerespop);
                   3945:   fprintf(ficlog,"Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", filerespop);
                   3946: 
                   3947:   if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
                   3948: 
1.54      brouard  3949:   if (mobilav!=0) {
1.53      brouard  3950:     mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
1.54      brouard  3951:     if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
                   3952:       fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
                   3953:       printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
                   3954:     }
1.53      brouard  3955:   }
                   3956: 
                   3957:   stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
                   3958:   if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;
                   3959:   
                   3960:   agelim=AGESUP;
                   3961:   
                   3962:   hstepm=1;
                   3963:   hstepm=hstepm/stepm; 
                   3964:   
                   3965:   if (popforecast==1) {
                   3966:     if((ficpop=fopen(popfile,"r"))==NULL) {
                   3967:       printf("Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);exit(0);
                   3968:       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);exit(0);
                   3969:     } 
                   3970:     popage=ivector(0,AGESUP);
                   3971:     popeffectif=vector(0,AGESUP);
                   3972:     popcount=vector(0,AGESUP);
                   3973:     
                   3974:     i=1;   
                   3975:     while ((c=fscanf(ficpop,"%d %lf\n",&popage[i],&popcount[i])) != EOF) i=i+1;
                   3976:    
                   3977:     imx=i;
                   3978:     for (i=1; i<imx;i++) popeffectif[popage[i]]=popcount[i];
                   3979:   }
                   3980: 
1.69      brouard  3981:   for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i2;cptcov++){
1.53      brouard  3982:    for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){
                   3983:       k=k+1;
                   3984:       fprintf(ficrespop,"\n#******");
                   3985:       for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
                   3986:        fprintf(ficrespop," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
                   3987:       }
                   3988:       fprintf(ficrespop,"******\n");
                   3989:       fprintf(ficrespop,"# Age");
                   3990:       for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) fprintf(ficrespop," P.%d",j);
                   3991:       if (popforecast==1)  fprintf(ficrespop," [Population]");
                   3992:       
                   3993:       for (cpt=0; cpt<=0;cpt++) { 
                   3994:        fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);   
                   3995:        
1.69      brouard  3996:        for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedatem %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedatem %12)/12.); agedeb--){ 
1.53      brouard  3997:          nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); 
                   3998:          nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; 
                   3999:          
                   4000:          p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
                   4001:          oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
                   4002:          hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
                   4003:        
                   4004:          for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
1.69      brouard  4005:            if (h==(int) (calagedatem+YEARM*cpt)) {
1.53      brouard  4006:              fprintf(ficrespop,"\n %3.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
                   4007:            } 
                   4008:            for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
                   4009:              kk1=0.;kk2=0;
                   4010:              for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {              
                   4011:                if (mobilav==1) 
                   4012:                  kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];
                   4013:                else {
                   4014:                  kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agedeb+1)][i][cptcod];
                   4015:                }
                   4016:              }
1.69      brouard  4017:              if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)){
1.53      brouard  4018:                tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod]=kk1;
                   4019:                  /*fprintf(ficrespop," %.3f", kk1);
                   4020:                    if (popforecast==1) fprintf(ficrespop," [%.f]", kk1*popeffectif[(int)agedeb+1]);*/
                   4021:              }
                   4022:            }
                   4023:            for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
                   4024:              kk1=0.;
                   4025:                for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
                   4026:                  kk1= kk1+tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod]; 
                   4027:                }
1.69      brouard  4028:                  tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]=tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]/kk1*popeffectif[(int)(agedeb+(calagedatem+12*cpt)*hstepm/YEARM*stepm-1)];
1.53      brouard  4029:            }
                   4030: 
1.69      brouard  4031:            if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)) for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++) 
1.53      brouard  4032:              fprintf(ficrespop," %15.2f",tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb+1)][j][cptcod]);
                   4033:          }
                   4034:          free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
                   4035:        }
                   4036:       }
                   4037:  
                   4038:   /******/
                   4039: 
                   4040:       for (cpt=1; cpt<=(anpyram1-anpyram);cpt++) { 
                   4041:        fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);   
1.69      brouard  4042:        for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedatem %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedatem %12)/12.); agedeb--){ 
1.53      brouard  4043:          nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); 
                   4044:          nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; 
                   4045:          
                   4046:          p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
                   4047:          oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
                   4048:          hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
                   4049:          for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
1.69      brouard  4050:            if (h==(int) (calagedatem+YEARM*cpt)) {
1.53      brouard  4051:              fprintf(ficresf,"\n %3.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
                   4052:            } 
                   4053:            for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
                   4054:              kk1=0.;kk2=0;
                   4055:              for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {              
                   4056:                kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*tabpopprev[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];    
                   4057:              }
1.69      brouard  4058:              if (h==(int)(calagedatem+12*cpt)) fprintf(ficresf," %15.2f", kk1);        
1.53      brouard  4059:            }
                   4060:          }
                   4061:          free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
                   4062:        }
                   4063:       }
                   4064:    } 
                   4065:   }
                   4066:  
1.54      brouard  4067:   if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
1.53      brouard  4068: 
                   4069:   if (popforecast==1) {
                   4070:     free_ivector(popage,0,AGESUP);
                   4071:     free_vector(popeffectif,0,AGESUP);
                   4072:     free_vector(popcount,0,AGESUP);
                   4073:   }
                   4074:   free_ma3x(tabpop,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
                   4075:   free_ma3x(tabpopprev,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
                   4076:   fclose(ficrespop);
1.84      brouard  4077: } /* End of popforecast */
1.53      brouard  4078: 
1.87      brouard  4079: int fileappend(FILE *fichier, char *optionfich)
1.86      brouard  4080: {
1.87      brouard  4081:   if((fichier=fopen(optionfich,"a"))==NULL) {
                   4082:     printf("Problem with file: %s\n", optionfich);
                   4083:     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with file: %s\n", optionfich);
                   4084:     return (0);
1.86      brouard  4085:   }
1.87      brouard  4086:   fflush(fichier);
                   4087:   return (1);
1.86      brouard  4088: }
1.94      brouard  4089: 
                   4090: 
                   4091: /**************** function prwizard **********************/
1.88      brouard  4092: void prwizard(int ncovmodel, int nlstate, int ndeath,  char model[], FILE *ficparo)
                   4093: {
                   4094: 
1.94      brouard  4095:   /* Wizard to print covariance matrix template */
                   4096: 
1.88      brouard  4097:   char ca[32], cb[32], cc[32];
                   4098:   int i,j, k, l, li, lj, lk, ll, jj, npar, itimes;
                   4099:   int numlinepar;
                   4100: 
                   4101:   printf("# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
                   4102:   fprintf(ficparo,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
                   4103:   for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
                   4104:     jj=0;
                   4105:     for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
                   4106:       if(j==i) continue;
                   4107:       jj++;
                   4108:       /*ca[0]= k+'a'-1;ca[1]='\0';*/
                   4109:       printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
                   4110:       fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i,j);
                   4111:       for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
                   4112:        /*        printf(" %lf",param[i][j][k]); */
                   4113:        /*        fprintf(ficparo," %lf",param[i][j][k]); */
                   4114:        printf(" 0.");
                   4115:        fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
                   4116:       }
                   4117:       printf("\n");
                   4118:       fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
                   4119:     }
                   4120:   }
                   4121:   printf("# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
                   4122:   fprintf(ficparo,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
                   4123:   npar= (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel; /* Number of parameters*/ 
                   4124:   for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
                   4125:     jj=0;
                   4126:     for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
                   4127:       if(j==i) continue;
                   4128:       jj++;
                   4129:       fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i,j);
                   4130:       printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
                   4131:       fflush(stdout);
                   4132:       for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
                   4133:        /*      printf(" %le",delti3[i][j][k]); */
                   4134:        /*      fprintf(ficparo," %le",delti3[i][j][k]); */
                   4135:        printf(" 0.");
                   4136:        fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
                   4137:       }
                   4138:       numlinepar++;
                   4139:       printf("\n");
                   4140:       fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
                   4141:     }
                   4142:   }
                   4143:   printf("# Covariance matrix\n");
                   4144: /* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */
                   4145: /* # 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n\ */
                   4146: /* # 131 Cov(a13,a12) Cov(a13,b12, Var(a13)\n\ */
                   4147: /* # 132 Cov(b13,a12) Cov(b13,b12, Cov(b13,a13) Var(b13)\n\ */
                   4148: /* # 212 Cov(a21,a12) Cov(a21,b12, Cov(a21,a13) Cov(a21,b13) Var(a21)\n\ */
                   4149: /* # 212 Cov(b21,a12) Cov(b21,b12, Cov(b21,a13) Cov(b21,b13) Cov(b21,a21) Var(b21)\n\ */
                   4150: /* # 232 Cov(a23,a12) Cov(a23,b12, Cov(a23,a13) Cov(a23,b13) Cov(a23,a21) Cov(a23,b21) Var(a23)\n\ */
                   4151: /* # 232 Cov(b23,a12) Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n" */
                   4152:   fflush(stdout);
                   4153:   fprintf(ficparo,"# Covariance matrix\n");
                   4154:   /* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */
                   4155:   /* # 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n\ */
                   4156:   /* #   ...\n\ */
                   4157:   /* # 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n" */
                   4158:   
                   4159:   for(itimes=1;itimes<=2;itimes++){
                   4160:     jj=0;
                   4161:     for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
                   4162:       for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
                   4163:        if(j==i) continue;
                   4164:        for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
                   4165:          jj++;
                   4166:          ca[0]= k+'a'-1;ca[1]='\0';
                   4167:          if(itimes==1){
                   4168:            printf("#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
                   4169:            fprintf(ficparo,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
                   4170:          }else{
                   4171:            printf("%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
                   4172:            fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
                   4173:            /*  printf(" %.5le",matcov[i][j]); */
                   4174:          }
                   4175:          ll=0;
                   4176:          for(li=1;li <=nlstate; li++){
                   4177:            for(lj=1;lj <=nlstate+ndeath; lj++){
                   4178:              if(lj==li) continue;
                   4179:              for(lk=1;lk<=ncovmodel;lk++){
                   4180:                ll++;
                   4181:                if(ll<=jj){
                   4182:                  cb[0]= lk +'a'-1;cb[1]='\0';
                   4183:                  if(ll<jj){
                   4184:                    if(itimes==1){
                   4185:                      printf(" Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                   4186:                      fprintf(ficparo," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                   4187:                    }else{
                   4188:                      printf(" 0.");
                   4189:                      fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
                   4190:                    }
                   4191:                  }else{
                   4192:                    if(itimes==1){
                   4193:                      printf(" Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                   4194:                      fprintf(ficparo," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                   4195:                    }else{
                   4196:                      printf(" 0.");
                   4197:                      fprintf(ficparo," 0.");
                   4198:                    }
                   4199:                  }
                   4200:                }
                   4201:              } /* end lk */
                   4202:            } /* end lj */
                   4203:          } /* end li */
                   4204:          printf("\n");
                   4205:          fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
                   4206:          numlinepar++;
                   4207:        } /* end k*/
                   4208:       } /*end j */
                   4209:     } /* end i */
1.95      brouard  4210:   } /* end itimes */
1.88      brouard  4211: 
                   4212: } /* end of prwizard */
1.98      brouard  4213: /******************* Gompertz Likelihood ******************************/
                   4214: double gompertz(double x[])
                   4215: { 
                   4216:   double A,B,L=0.0,sump=0.,num=0.;
                   4217:   int i,n=0; /* n is the size of the sample */
1.110     brouard  4218: 
1.98      brouard  4219:   for (i=0;i<=imx-1 ; i++) {
                   4220:     sump=sump+weight[i];
1.103     lievre   4221:     /*    sump=sump+1;*/
1.98      brouard  4222:     num=num+1;
                   4223:   }
                   4224:  
                   4225:  
1.103     lievre   4226:   /* for (i=0; i<=imx; i++) 
1.98      brouard  4227:      if (wav[i]>0) printf("i=%d ageex=%lf agecens=%lf agedc=%lf cens=%d %d\n" ,i,ageexmed[i],agecens[i],agedc[i],cens[i],wav[i]);*/
                   4228: 
1.103     lievre   4229:   for (i=1;i<=imx ; i++)
1.98      brouard  4230:     {
1.110     brouard  4231:       if (cens[i] == 1 && wav[i]>1)
1.103     lievre   4232:        A=-x[1]/(x[2])*(exp(x[2]*(agecens[i]-agegomp))-exp(x[2]*(ageexmed[i]-agegomp)));
1.98      brouard  4233:       
1.110     brouard  4234:       if (cens[i] == 0 && wav[i]>1)
1.103     lievre   4235:        A=-x[1]/(x[2])*(exp(x[2]*(agedc[i]-agegomp))-exp(x[2]*(ageexmed[i]-agegomp)))
                   4236:             +log(x[1]/YEARM)+x[2]*(agedc[i]-agegomp)+log(YEARM);  
1.98      brouard  4237:       
1.110     brouard  4238:       /*if (wav[i] > 1 && agecens[i] > 15) {*/ /* ??? */
                   4239:       if (wav[i] > 1 ) { /* ??? */
1.98      brouard  4240:        L=L+A*weight[i];
                   4241:        /*      printf("\ni=%d A=%f L=%lf x[1]=%lf x[2]=%lf ageex=%lf agecens=%lf cens=%d agedc=%lf weight=%lf\n",i,A,L,x[1],x[2],ageexmed[i]*12,agecens[i]*12,cens[i],agedc[i]*12,weight[i]);*/
                   4242:       }
                   4243:     }
                   4244: 
                   4245:  /*printf("x1=%2.9f x2=%2.9f x3=%2.9f L=%f\n",x[1],x[2],x[3],L);*/
                   4246:  
                   4247:   return -2*L*num/sump;
                   4248: }
                   4249: 
                   4250: /******************* Printing html file ***********/
                   4251: void printinghtmlmort(char fileres[], char title[], char datafile[], int firstpass, \
                   4252:                  int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[],\
1.105     lievre   4253:                  int imx,  double p[],double **matcov,double agemortsup){
                   4254:   int i,k;
1.98      brouard  4255: 
                   4256:   fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><h4>Result files </h4>\n Force of mortality. Parameters of the Gompertz fit (with confidence interval in brackets):<br>");
                   4257:   fprintf(fichtm,"  mu(age) =%lf*exp(%lf*(age-%d)) per year<br><br>",p[1],p[2],agegomp);
                   4258:   for (i=1;i<=2;i++) 
                   4259:     fprintf(fichtm," p[%d] = %lf [%f ; %f]<br>\n",i,p[i],p[i]-2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]),p[i]+2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]));
                   4260:   fprintf(fichtm,"<br><br><img src=\"graphmort.png\">");
                   4261:   fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
1.105     lievre   4262: 
                   4263: fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><h4>Life table</h4>\n <br>");
                   4264: 
1.106     brouard  4265:  fprintf(fichtm,"\nAge   l<inf>x</inf>     q<inf>x</inf> d(x,x+1)    L<inf>x</inf>     T<inf>x</inf>     e<infx</inf><br>");
1.105     lievre   4266: 
                   4267:  for (k=agegomp;k<(agemortsup-2);k++) 
                   4268:    fprintf(fichtm,"%d %.0lf %lf %.0lf %.0lf %.0lf %lf<br>\n",k,lsurv[k],p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)),(p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)))*lsurv[k],lpop[k],tpop[k],tpop[k]/lsurv[k]);
                   4269: 
                   4270:  
1.98      brouard  4271:   fflush(fichtm);
                   4272: }
                   4273: 
                   4274: /******************* Gnuplot file **************/
                   4275: void printinggnuplotmort(char fileres[], char optionfilefiname[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double fage , char pathc[], double p[]){
                   4276: 
                   4277:   char dirfileres[132],optfileres[132];
                   4278:   int m,cpt,k1,i,k,j,jk,k2,k3,ij,l;
                   4279:   int ng;
                   4280: 
                   4281: 
                   4282:   /*#ifdef windows */
                   4283:   fprintf(ficgp,"cd \"%s\" \n",pathc);
                   4284:     /*#endif */
                   4285: 
                   4286: 
                   4287:   strcpy(dirfileres,optionfilefiname);
                   4288:   strcpy(optfileres,"vpl");
                   4289:   fprintf(ficgp,"set out \"graphmort.png\"\n "); 
                   4290:   fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\"\n set ylabel \"Force of mortality (per year)\" \n "); 
                   4291:   fprintf(ficgp, "set ter png small\n set log y\n"); 
                   4292:   fprintf(ficgp, "set size 0.65,0.65\n");
                   4293:   fprintf(ficgp,"plot [%d:100] %lf*exp(%lf*(x-%d))",agegomp,p[1],p[2],agegomp);
                   4294: 
                   4295: } 
                   4296: 
                   4297: 
1.88      brouard  4298: 
1.91      brouard  4299: 
1.117     brouard  4300: 
1.53      brouard  4301: /***********************************************/
                   4302: /**************** Main Program *****************/
                   4303: /***********************************************/
                   4304: 
                   4305: int main(int argc, char *argv[])
                   4306: {
1.61      brouard  4307:   int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav);
1.74      brouard  4308:   int i,j, k, n=MAXN,iter,m,size=100,cptcode, cptcod;
1.110     brouard  4309:   int linei, month, year,iout;
1.95      brouard  4310:   int jj, ll, li, lj, lk, imk;
1.85      brouard  4311:   int numlinepar=0; /* Current linenumber of parameter file */
1.95      brouard  4312:   int itimes;
1.98      brouard  4313:   int NDIM=2;
1.95      brouard  4314: 
                   4315:   char ca[32], cb[32], cc[32];
1.111     brouard  4316:   char dummy[]="                         ";
1.87      brouard  4317:   /*  FILE *fichtm; *//* Html File */
                   4318:   /* FILE *ficgp;*/ /*Gnuplot File */
1.107     brouard  4319:   struct stat info;
1.53      brouard  4320:   double agedeb, agefin,hf;
                   4321:   double ageminpar=1.e20,agemin=1.e20, agemaxpar=-1.e20, agemax=-1.e20;
                   4322: 
                   4323:   double fret;
                   4324:   double **xi,tmp,delta;
                   4325: 
                   4326:   double dum; /* Dummy variable */
                   4327:   double ***p3mat;
                   4328:   double ***mobaverage;
                   4329:   int *indx;
                   4330:   char line[MAXLINE], linepar[MAXLINE];
1.88      brouard  4331:   char path[MAXLINE],pathc[MAXLINE],pathcd[MAXLINE],pathtot[MAXLINE],model[MAXLINE];
1.99      brouard  4332:   char pathr[MAXLINE], pathimach[MAXLINE]; 
1.114     brouard  4333:   char **bp, *tok, *val; /* pathtot */
1.53      brouard  4334:   int firstobs=1, lastobs=10;
                   4335:   int sdeb, sfin; /* Status at beginning and end */
                   4336:   int c,  h , cpt,l;
                   4337:   int ju,jl, mi;
                   4338:   int i1,j1, k1,k2,k3,jk,aa,bb, stepsize, ij;
1.59      brouard  4339:   int jnais,jdc,jint4,jint1,jint2,jint3,**outcome,*tab; 
1.69      brouard  4340:   int mobilavproj=0 , prevfcast=0 ; /* moving average of prev, If prevfcast=1 prevalence projection */
1.53      brouard  4341:   int mobilav=0,popforecast=0;
                   4342:   int hstepm, nhstepm;
1.105     lievre   4343:   int agemortsup;
                   4344:   float  sumlpop=0.;
1.74      brouard  4345:   double jprev1=1, mprev1=1,anprev1=2000,jprev2=1, mprev2=1,anprev2=2000;
                   4346:   double jpyram=1, mpyram=1,anpyram=2000,jpyram1=1, mpyram1=1,anpyram1=2000;
1.53      brouard  4347: 
                   4348:   double bage, fage, age, agelim, agebase;
                   4349:   double ftolpl=FTOL;
                   4350:   double **prlim;
                   4351:   double *severity;
                   4352:   double ***param; /* Matrix of parameters */
                   4353:   double  *p;
                   4354:   double **matcov; /* Matrix of covariance */
                   4355:   double ***delti3; /* Scale */
                   4356:   double *delti; /* Scale */
                   4357:   double ***eij, ***vareij;
                   4358:   double **varpl; /* Variances of prevalence limits by age */
                   4359:   double *epj, vepp;
                   4360:   double kk1, kk2;
1.74      brouard  4361:   double dateprev1, dateprev2,jproj1=1,mproj1=1,anproj1=2000,jproj2=1,mproj2=1,anproj2=2000;
1.98      brouard  4362:   double **ximort;
1.53      brouard  4363:   char *alph[]={"a","a","b","c","d","e"}, str[4];
1.98      brouard  4364:   int *dcwave;
1.53      brouard  4365: 
                   4366:   char z[1]="c", occ;
1.86      brouard  4367: 
1.53      brouard  4368:   char stra[80], strb[80], strc[80], strd[80],stre[80],modelsav[80];
1.117     brouard  4369:   char  *strt, strtend[80];
1.85      brouard  4370:   char *stratrunc;
                   4371:   int lstra;
                   4372: 
                   4373:   long total_usecs;
1.53      brouard  4374:  
1.95      brouard  4375: /*   setlocale (LC_ALL, ""); */
                   4376: /*   bindtextdomain (PACKAGE, LOCALEDIR); */
                   4377: /*   textdomain (PACKAGE); */
                   4378: /*   setlocale (LC_CTYPE, ""); */
                   4379: /*   setlocale (LC_MESSAGES, ""); */
                   4380: 
1.85      brouard  4381:   /*   gettimeofday(&start_time, (struct timezone*)0); */ /* at first time */
                   4382:   (void) gettimeofday(&start_time,&tzp);
1.91      brouard  4383:   curr_time=start_time;
1.85      brouard  4384:   tm = *localtime(&start_time.tv_sec);
                   4385:   tmg = *gmtime(&start_time.tv_sec);
1.88      brouard  4386:   strcpy(strstart,asctime(&tm));
1.86      brouard  4387: 
1.88      brouard  4388: /*  printf("Localtime (at start)=%s",strstart); */
1.85      brouard  4389: /*  tp.tv_sec = tp.tv_sec +86400; */
                   4390: /*  tm = *localtime(&start_time.tv_sec); */
                   4391: /*   tmg.tm_year=tmg.tm_year +dsign*dyear; */
                   4392: /*   tmg.tm_mon=tmg.tm_mon +dsign*dmonth; */
                   4393: /*   tmg.tm_hour=tmg.tm_hour + 1; */
                   4394: /*   tp.tv_sec = mktime(&tmg); */
                   4395: /*   strt=asctime(&tmg); */
1.88      brouard  4396: /*   printf("Time(after) =%s",strstart);  */
1.85      brouard  4397: /*  (void) time (&time_value);
                   4398: *  printf("time=%d,t-=%d\n",time_value,time_value-86400);
                   4399: *  tm = *localtime(&time_value);
1.88      brouard  4400: *  strstart=asctime(&tm);
                   4401: *  printf("tim_value=%d,asctime=%s\n",time_value,strstart); 
1.85      brouard  4402: */
                   4403: 
1.91      brouard  4404:   nberr=0; /* Number of errors and warnings */
                   4405:   nbwarn=0;
1.53      brouard  4406:   getcwd(pathcd, size);
                   4407: 
1.81      brouard  4408:   printf("\n%s\n%s",version,fullversion);
1.53      brouard  4409:   if(argc <=1){
                   4410:     printf("\nEnter the parameter file name: ");
1.114     brouard  4411:     fgets(pathr,FILENAMELENGTH,stdin);
                   4412:     i=strlen(pathr);
                   4413:     if(pathr[i-1]=='\n')
                   4414:       pathr[i-1]='\0';
                   4415:    for (tok = pathr; tok != NULL; ){
                   4416:       printf("Pathr |%s|\n",pathr);
                   4417:       while ((val = strsep(&tok, "\"" )) != NULL && *val == '\0');
                   4418:       printf("val= |%s| pathr=%s\n",val,pathr);
                   4419:       strcpy (pathtot, val);
1.119     brouard  4420:       if(pathr[0] == '\0') break; /* Dirty */
1.114     brouard  4421:     }
1.53      brouard  4422:   }
                   4423:   else{
                   4424:     strcpy(pathtot,argv[1]);
                   4425:   }
1.88      brouard  4426:   /*if(getcwd(pathcd, MAXLINE)!= NULL)printf ("Error pathcd\n");*/
1.53      brouard  4427:   /*cygwin_split_path(pathtot,path,optionfile);
                   4428:     printf("pathtot=%s, path=%s, optionfile=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile);*/
                   4429:   /* cutv(path,optionfile,pathtot,'\\');*/
                   4430: 
1.107     brouard  4431:   /* Split argv[0], imach program to get pathimach */
                   4432:   printf("\nargv[0]=%s argv[1]=%s, \n",argv[0],argv[1]);
1.99      brouard  4433:   split(argv[0],pathimach,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
1.107     brouard  4434:   printf("\nargv[0]=%s pathimach=%s, \noptionfile=%s \noptionfilext=%s \noptionfilefiname=%s\n",argv[0],pathimach,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
1.99      brouard  4435:  /*   strcpy(pathimach,argv[0]); */
1.107     brouard  4436:   /* Split argv[1]=pathtot, parameter file name to get path, optionfile, extension and name */
1.53      brouard  4437:   split(pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
1.107     brouard  4438:   printf("\npathtot=%s,\npath=%s,\noptionfile=%s \noptionfilext=%s \noptionfilefiname=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
1.119     brouard  4439:   chdir(path); /* Can be a relative path */
                   4440:   if(getcwd(pathcd,MAXLINE) > 0) /* So pathcd is the full path */
                   4441:     printf("Current directory %s!\n",pathcd);
1.88      brouard  4442:   strcpy(command,"mkdir ");
                   4443:   strcat(command,optionfilefiname);
                   4444:   if((outcmd=system(command)) != 0){
                   4445:     printf("Problem creating directory or it already exists %s%s, err=%d\n",path,optionfilefiname,outcmd);
                   4446:     /* fprintf(ficlog,"Problem creating directory %s%s\n",path,optionfilefiname); */
                   4447:     /* fclose(ficlog); */
                   4448: /*     exit(1); */
                   4449:   }
                   4450: /*   if((imk=mkdir(optionfilefiname))<0){ */
                   4451: /*     perror("mkdir"); */
                   4452: /*   } */
1.53      brouard  4453: 
1.59      brouard  4454:   /*-------- arguments in the command line --------*/
1.53      brouard  4455: 
                   4456:   /* Log file */
                   4457:   strcat(filelog, optionfilefiname);
                   4458:   strcat(filelog,".log");    /* */
                   4459:   if((ficlog=fopen(filelog,"w"))==NULL)    {
                   4460:     printf("Problem with logfile %s\n",filelog);
                   4461:     goto end;
                   4462:   }
                   4463:   fprintf(ficlog,"Log filename:%s\n",filelog);
1.85      brouard  4464:   fprintf(ficlog,"\n%s\n%s",version,fullversion);
1.99      brouard  4465:   fprintf(ficlog,"\nEnter the parameter file name: \n");
                   4466:   fprintf(ficlog,"pathimach=%s\npathtot=%s\n\
1.88      brouard  4467:  path=%s \n\
                   4468:  optionfile=%s\n\
                   4469:  optionfilext=%s\n\
1.99      brouard  4470:  optionfilefiname=%s\n",pathimach,pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
1.86      brouard  4471: 
1.94      brouard  4472:   printf("Local time (at start):%s",strstart);
                   4473:   fprintf(ficlog,"Local time (at start): %s",strstart);
1.53      brouard  4474:   fflush(ficlog);
1.91      brouard  4475: /*   (void) gettimeofday(&curr_time,&tzp); */
                   4476: /*   printf("Elapsed time %d\n", asc_diff_time(curr_time.tv_sec-start_time.tv_sec,tmpout)); */
1.53      brouard  4477: 
                   4478:   /* */
                   4479:   strcpy(fileres,"r");
                   4480:   strcat(fileres, optionfilefiname);
                   4481:   strcat(fileres,".txt");    /* Other files have txt extension */
                   4482: 
                   4483:   /*---------arguments file --------*/
                   4484: 
                   4485:   if((ficpar=fopen(optionfile,"r"))==NULL)    {
                   4486:     printf("Problem with optionfile %s\n",optionfile);
                   4487:     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with optionfile %s\n",optionfile);
1.85      brouard  4488:     fflush(ficlog);
1.53      brouard  4489:     goto end;
                   4490:   }
                   4491: 
1.88      brouard  4492: 
                   4493: 
1.53      brouard  4494:   strcpy(filereso,"o");
                   4495:   strcat(filereso,fileres);
1.88      brouard  4496:   if((ficparo=fopen(filereso,"w"))==NULL) { /* opened on subdirectory */
1.53      brouard  4497:     printf("Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);
                   4498:     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);
1.85      brouard  4499:     fflush(ficlog);
1.53      brouard  4500:     goto end;
                   4501:   }
                   4502: 
                   4503:   /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
1.85      brouard  4504:   numlinepar=0;
1.53      brouard  4505:   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
                   4506:     ungetc(c,ficpar);
                   4507:     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
1.85      brouard  4508:     numlinepar++;
1.53      brouard  4509:     puts(line);
                   4510:     fputs(line,ficparo);
1.85      brouard  4511:     fputs(line,ficlog);
1.53      brouard  4512:   }
                   4513:   ungetc(c,ficpar);
                   4514: 
                   4515:   fscanf(ficpar,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%lf stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d model=%s\n",title, datafile, &lastobs, &firstpass,&lastpass,&ftol, &stepm, &ncovcol, &nlstate,&ndeath, &maxwav, &mle, &weightopt,model);
1.85      brouard  4516:   numlinepar++;
1.53      brouard  4517:   printf("title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate,ndeath, maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
                   4518:   fprintf(ficparo,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
1.85      brouard  4519:   fprintf(ficlog,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
                   4520:   fflush(ficlog);
1.59      brouard  4521:   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
1.53      brouard  4522:     ungetc(c,ficpar);
                   4523:     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
1.85      brouard  4524:     numlinepar++;
1.53      brouard  4525:     puts(line);
                   4526:     fputs(line,ficparo);
1.85      brouard  4527:     fputs(line,ficlog);
1.53      brouard  4528:   }
                   4529:   ungetc(c,ficpar);
1.85      brouard  4530: 
1.53      brouard  4531:    
                   4532:   covar=matrix(0,NCOVMAX,1,n); 
1.58      lievre   4533:   cptcovn=0; /*Number of covariates, i.e. number of '+' in model statement*/
1.53      brouard  4534:   if (strlen(model)>1) cptcovn=nbocc(model,'+')+1;
                   4535: 
1.58      lievre   4536:   ncovmodel=2+cptcovn; /*Number of variables = cptcovn + intercept + age */
1.53      brouard  4537:   nvar=ncovmodel-1; /* Suppressing age as a basic covariate */
1.98      brouard  4538:   npar= (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel; /* Number of parameters*/
                   4539: 
                   4540:   delti3= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
                   4541:   delti=delti3[1][1];
                   4542:   /*delti=vector(1,npar); *//* Scale of each paramater (output from hesscov)*/
1.88      brouard  4543:   if(mle==-1){ /* Print a wizard for help writing covariance matrix */
                   4544:     prwizard(ncovmodel, nlstate, ndeath, model, ficparo);
                   4545:     printf(" You choose mle=-1, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
                   4546:     fprintf(ficlog," You choose mle=-1, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
1.98      brouard  4547:     free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel); 
1.88      brouard  4548:     fclose (ficparo);
                   4549:     fclose (ficlog);
                   4550:     exit(0);
                   4551:   }
1.98      brouard  4552:   else if(mle==-3) {
                   4553:     prwizard(ncovmodel, nlstate, ndeath, model, ficparo);
                   4554:     printf(" You choose mle=-3, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
                   4555:     fprintf(ficlog," You choose mle=-3, look at file %s for a template of covariance matrix \n",filereso);
                   4556:     param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
                   4557:     matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
1.53      brouard  4558:   }
1.98      brouard  4559:   else{
                   4560:     /* Read guess parameters */
                   4561:     /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
                   4562:     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
                   4563:       ungetc(c,ficpar);
                   4564:       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
1.85      brouard  4565:       numlinepar++;
1.98      brouard  4566:       puts(line);
                   4567:       fputs(line,ficparo);
                   4568:       fputs(line,ficlog);
1.53      brouard  4569:     }
1.98      brouard  4570:     ungetc(c,ficpar);
                   4571:     
                   4572:     param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
                   4573:     for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
                   4574:       j=0;
                   4575:       for(jj=1; jj <=nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
                   4576:        if(jj==i) continue;
                   4577:        j++;
                   4578:        fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);
                   4579:        if ((i1 != i) && (j1 != j)){
                   4580:          printf("Error in line parameters number %d, %1d%1d instead of %1d%1d \n",numlinepar, i,j, i1, j1);
                   4581:          exit(1);
                   4582:        }
                   4583:        fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
                   4584:        if(mle==1)
                   4585:          printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
                   4586:        fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i,j);
                   4587:        for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
                   4588:          fscanf(ficpar," %lf",&param[i][j][k]);
                   4589:          if(mle==1){
                   4590:            printf(" %lf",param[i][j][k]);
                   4591:            fprintf(ficlog," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
                   4592:          }
                   4593:          else
                   4594:            fprintf(ficlog," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
                   4595:          fprintf(ficparo," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
                   4596:        }
                   4597:        fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
                   4598:        numlinepar++;
                   4599:        if(mle==1)
                   4600:          printf("\n");
                   4601:        fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
                   4602:        fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
                   4603:       }
                   4604:     }  
                   4605:     fflush(ficlog);
1.85      brouard  4606: 
1.98      brouard  4607:     p=param[1][1];
                   4608:     
                   4609:     /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
                   4610:     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
                   4611:       ungetc(c,ficpar);
                   4612:       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
                   4613:       numlinepar++;
                   4614:       puts(line);
                   4615:       fputs(line,ficparo);
                   4616:       fputs(line,ficlog);
                   4617:     }
1.53      brouard  4618:     ungetc(c,ficpar);
                   4619: 
1.98      brouard  4620:     for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
                   4621:       for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath-1; j++){
                   4622:        fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);
                   4623:        if ((i1-i)*(j1-j)!=0){
                   4624:          printf("Error in line parameters number %d, %1d%1d instead of %1d%1d \n",numlinepar, i,j, i1, j1);
                   4625:          exit(1);
                   4626:        }
                   4627:        printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
                   4628:        fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
                   4629:        fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
                   4630:        for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
                   4631:          fscanf(ficpar,"%le",&delti3[i][j][k]);
                   4632:          printf(" %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
                   4633:          fprintf(ficparo," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
                   4634:          fprintf(ficlog," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
                   4635:        }
                   4636:        fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
                   4637:        numlinepar++;
                   4638:        printf("\n");
                   4639:        fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
                   4640:        fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
1.85      brouard  4641:       }
1.53      brouard  4642:     }
1.98      brouard  4643:     fflush(ficlog);
1.85      brouard  4644: 
1.98      brouard  4645:     delti=delti3[1][1];
1.74      brouard  4646: 
                   4647: 
1.98      brouard  4648:     /* free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel); */ /* Hasn't to to freed here otherwise delti is no more allocated */
1.53      brouard  4649:   
1.98      brouard  4650:     /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
                   4651:     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
                   4652:       ungetc(c,ficpar);
                   4653:       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
                   4654:       numlinepar++;
                   4655:       puts(line);
                   4656:       fputs(line,ficparo);
                   4657:       fputs(line,ficlog);
                   4658:     }
1.53      brouard  4659:     ungetc(c,ficpar);
                   4660:   
1.98      brouard  4661:     matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
                   4662:     for(i=1; i <=npar; i++){
                   4663:       fscanf(ficpar,"%s",&str);
                   4664:       if(mle==1)
                   4665:        printf("%s",str);
                   4666:       fprintf(ficlog,"%s",str);
                   4667:       fprintf(ficparo,"%s",str);
                   4668:       for(j=1; j <=i; j++){
                   4669:        fscanf(ficpar," %le",&matcov[i][j]);
                   4670:        if(mle==1){
                   4671:          printf(" %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
                   4672:        }
                   4673:        fprintf(ficlog," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
                   4674:        fprintf(ficparo," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
1.53      brouard  4675:       }
1.98      brouard  4676:       fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
                   4677:       numlinepar++;
                   4678:       if(mle==1)
                   4679:        printf("\n");
                   4680:       fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
                   4681:       fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
1.53      brouard  4682:     }
1.98      brouard  4683:     for(i=1; i <=npar; i++)
                   4684:       for(j=i+1;j<=npar;j++)
                   4685:        matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];
                   4686:     
1.53      brouard  4687:     if(mle==1)
                   4688:       printf("\n");
                   4689:     fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
1.98      brouard  4690:     
                   4691:     fflush(ficlog);
                   4692:     
                   4693:     /*-------- Rewriting parameter file ----------*/
                   4694:     strcpy(rfileres,"r");    /* "Rparameterfile */
                   4695:     strcat(rfileres,optionfilefiname);    /* Parameter file first name*/
                   4696:     strcat(rfileres,".");    /* */
                   4697:     strcat(rfileres,optionfilext);    /* Other files have txt extension */
                   4698:     if((ficres =fopen(rfileres,"w"))==NULL) {
                   4699:       printf("Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", fileres);goto end;
                   4700:       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", fileres);goto end;
                   4701:     }
                   4702:     fprintf(ficres,"#%s\n",version);
                   4703:   }    /* End of mle != -3 */
1.53      brouard  4704: 
1.59      brouard  4705:   /*-------- data file ----------*/
                   4706:   if((fic=fopen(datafile,"r"))==NULL)    {
1.118     brouard  4707:     printf("Problem while opening datafile: %s\n", datafile);goto end;
                   4708:     fprintf(ficlog,"Problem while opening datafile: %s\n", datafile);goto end;
1.59      brouard  4709:   }
                   4710: 
                   4711:   n= lastobs;
                   4712:   severity = vector(1,maxwav);
                   4713:   outcome=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);
1.85      brouard  4714:   num=lvector(1,n);
1.59      brouard  4715:   moisnais=vector(1,n);
                   4716:   annais=vector(1,n);
                   4717:   moisdc=vector(1,n);
                   4718:   andc=vector(1,n);
                   4719:   agedc=vector(1,n);
                   4720:   cod=ivector(1,n);
                   4721:   weight=vector(1,n);
                   4722:   for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0; /* Equal weights, 1 by default */
                   4723:   mint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);
                   4724:   anint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);
                   4725:   s=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);
                   4726:   tab=ivector(1,NCOVMAX);
                   4727:   ncodemax=ivector(1,8);
                   4728: 
                   4729:   i=1;
1.109     brouard  4730:   linei=0;
1.111     brouard  4731:   while ((fgets(line, MAXLINE, fic) != NULL) &&((i >= firstobs) && (i <=lastobs))) {
1.109     brouard  4732:     linei=linei+1;
                   4733:     for(j=strlen(line); j>=0;j--){  /* Untabifies line */
1.111     brouard  4734:       if(line[j] == '\t')
                   4735:        line[j] = ' ';
                   4736:     }
                   4737:     for(j=strlen(line)-1; (line[j]==' ')||(line[j]==10)||(line[j]==13);j--){
                   4738:       ;
                   4739:     };
                   4740:     line[j+1]=0;  /* Trims blanks at end of line */
                   4741:     if(line[0]=='#'){
                   4742:       fprintf(ficlog,"Comment line\n%s\n",line);
                   4743:       printf("Comment line\n%s\n",line);
                   4744:       continue;
                   4745:     }
1.109     brouard  4746: 
1.111     brouard  4747:     for (j=maxwav;j>=1;j--){
1.110     brouard  4748:       cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); 
1.111     brouard  4749:       errno=0;
                   4750:       lval=strtol(strb,&endptr,10); 
                   4751:       /*       if (errno == ERANGE && (lval == LONG_MAX || lval == LONG_MIN))*/
                   4752:       if( strb[0]=='\0' || (*endptr != '\0')){
                   4753:        printf("Error reading data around '%d' at line number %d %s for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a status of wave %d. Setting maxwav=%d might be wrong.  Exiting.\n", strb, linei,i,line,j,maxwav);
1.109     brouard  4754:        exit(1);
                   4755:       }
1.111     brouard  4756:       s[j][i]=lval;
                   4757:       
1.109     brouard  4758:       strcpy(line,stra);
1.111     brouard  4759:       cutv(stra, strb,line,' ');
1.110     brouard  4760:       if(iout=sscanf(strb,"%d/%d",&month, &year) != 0){
1.109     brouard  4761:       }
1.111     brouard  4762:       else  if(iout=sscanf(strb,"%s.") != 0){
1.110     brouard  4763:        month=99;
                   4764:        year=9999;
                   4765:       }else{
1.111     brouard  4766:        printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %ld %s for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of interview (mm/yyyy or .) at wave %d.  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i, line,j);
1.109     brouard  4767:        exit(1);
                   4768:       }
1.111     brouard  4769:       anint[j][i]= (double) year; 
                   4770:       mint[j][i]= (double)month; 
1.109     brouard  4771:       strcpy(line,stra);
1.111     brouard  4772:     } /* ENd Waves */
                   4773:     
                   4774:     cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); 
                   4775:     if(iout=sscanf(strb,"%d/%d",&month, &year) != 0){
                   4776:     }
                   4777:     else  if(iout=sscanf(strb,"%s.",dummy) != 0){
                   4778:       month=99;
                   4779:       year=9999;
                   4780:     }else{
                   4781:       printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %ld %s for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of death (mm/yyyy or .).  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line);
                   4782:       exit(1);
                   4783:     }
                   4784:     andc[i]=(double) year; 
                   4785:     moisdc[i]=(double) month; 
                   4786:     strcpy(line,stra);
                   4787:     
                   4788:     cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); 
                   4789:     if(iout=sscanf(strb,"%d/%d",&month, &year) != 0){
                   4790:     }
                   4791:     else  if(iout=sscanf(strb,"%s.") != 0){
                   4792:       month=99;
                   4793:       year=9999;
                   4794:     }else{
                   4795:       printf("Error reading data around '%s' at line number %ld %s for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a date of birth (mm/yyyy or .).  Exiting.\n",strb, linei,i,line,j);
                   4796:       exit(1);
                   4797:     }
                   4798:     annais[i]=(double)(year);
                   4799:     moisnais[i]=(double)(month); 
                   4800:     strcpy(line,stra);
                   4801:     
                   4802:     cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); 
                   4803:     errno=0;
                   4804:     lval=strtol(strb,&endptr,10); 
                   4805:     if( strb[0]=='\0' || (*endptr != '\0')){
                   4806:       printf("Error reading data around '%d' at line number %ld %s for individual %d\nShould be a weight.  Exiting.\n",lval, i,line,linei);
                   4807:       exit(1);
                   4808:     }
                   4809:     weight[i]=(double)(lval); 
                   4810:     strcpy(line,stra);
                   4811:     
                   4812:     for (j=ncovcol;j>=1;j--){
1.109     brouard  4813:       cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); 
                   4814:       errno=0;
                   4815:       lval=strtol(strb,&endptr,10); 
                   4816:       if( strb[0]=='\0' || (*endptr != '\0')){
1.111     brouard  4817:        printf("Error reading data around '%d' at line number %ld %s for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a covar (meaning 0 for the reference or 1).  Exiting.\n",lval, linei,i, line);
                   4818:        exit(1);
                   4819:       }
                   4820:       if(lval <-1 || lval >1){
                   4821:        printf("Error reading data around '%d' at line number %ld %s for individual %d, '%s'\nShould be a value of the %d covar (meaning 0 for the reference or 1. IMaCh does not build design variables, do it your self).  Exiting.\n",lval,linei, i,line,j);
1.109     brouard  4822:        exit(1);
                   4823:       }
1.111     brouard  4824:       covar[j][i]=(double)(lval);
1.109     brouard  4825:       strcpy(line,stra);
1.111     brouard  4826:     } 
                   4827:     lstra=strlen(stra);
                   4828:     
                   4829:     if(lstra > 9){ /* More than 2**32 or max of what printf can write with %ld */
                   4830:       stratrunc = &(stra[lstra-9]);
                   4831:       num[i]=atol(stratrunc);
                   4832:     }
                   4833:     else
                   4834:       num[i]=atol(stra);
                   4835:     /*if((s[2][i]==2) && (s[3][i]==-1)&&(s[4][i]==9)){
                   4836:       printf("%ld %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]),weight[i], (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i])); ij=ij+1;}*/
                   4837:     
                   4838:     i=i+1;
1.109     brouard  4839:   } /* End loop reading  data */
1.113     brouard  4840:   fclose(fic);
1.59      brouard  4841:   /* printf("ii=%d", ij);
                   4842:      scanf("%d",i);*/
1.53      brouard  4843:   imx=i-1; /* Number of individuals */
                   4844: 
                   4845:   /* for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
                   4846:     if ((s[1][i]==3) && (s[2][i]==2)) s[2][i]=3;
                   4847:     if ((s[2][i]==3) && (s[3][i]==2)) s[3][i]=3;
                   4848:     if ((s[3][i]==3) && (s[4][i]==2)) s[4][i]=3;
                   4849:     }*/
                   4850:    /*  for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
                   4851:      if (s[4][i]==9)  s[4][i]=-1; 
1.85      brouard  4852:      printf("%ld %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]), (weight[i]), (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i]));}*/
1.53      brouard  4853:   
1.106     brouard  4854:   /* for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) */
1.53      brouard  4855:  
1.71      brouard  4856:    /*if ((s[3][i]==3) ||  (s[4][i]==3)) weight[i]=0.08;
                   4857:      else weight[i]=1;*/
                   4858: 
1.106     brouard  4859:   /* Calculation of the number of parameters from char model */
1.53      brouard  4860:   Tvar=ivector(1,15); /* stores the number n of the covariates in Vm+Vn at 1 and m at 2 */
                   4861:   Tprod=ivector(1,15); 
                   4862:   Tvaraff=ivector(1,15); 
                   4863:   Tvard=imatrix(1,15,1,2);
                   4864:   Tage=ivector(1,15);      
                   4865:    
1.58      lievre   4866:   if (strlen(model) >1){ /* If there is at least 1 covariate */
1.53      brouard  4867:     j=0, j1=0, k1=1, k2=1;
1.58      lievre   4868:     j=nbocc(model,'+'); /* j=Number of '+' */
                   4869:     j1=nbocc(model,'*'); /* j1=Number of '*' */
                   4870:     cptcovn=j+1; 
                   4871:     cptcovprod=j1; /*Number of products */
1.53      brouard  4872:     
                   4873:     strcpy(modelsav,model); 
                   4874:     if ((strcmp(model,"age")==0) || (strcmp(model,"age*age")==0)){
                   4875:       printf("Error. Non available option model=%s ",model);
                   4876:       fprintf(ficlog,"Error. Non available option model=%s ",model);
                   4877:       goto end;
                   4878:     }
                   4879:     
1.59      brouard  4880:     /* This loop fills the array Tvar from the string 'model'.*/
1.58      lievre   4881: 
1.53      brouard  4882:     for(i=(j+1); i>=1;i--){
                   4883:       cutv(stra,strb,modelsav,'+'); /* keeps in strb after the last + */ 
1.59      brouard  4884:       if (nbocc(modelsav,'+')==0) strcpy(strb,modelsav); /* and analyzes it */
1.53      brouard  4885:       /*      printf("i=%d a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n",i, stra,strb,modelsav);*/
                   4886:       /*scanf("%d",i);*/
                   4887:       if (strchr(strb,'*')) {  /* Model includes a product */
                   4888:        cutv(strd,strc,strb,'*'); /* strd*strc  Vm*Vn (if not *age)*/
                   4889:        if (strcmp(strc,"age")==0) { /* Vn*age */
                   4890:          cptcovprod--;
                   4891:          cutv(strb,stre,strd,'V');
                   4892:          Tvar[i]=atoi(stre); /* computes n in Vn and stores in Tvar*/
                   4893:          cptcovage++;
                   4894:            Tage[cptcovage]=i;
                   4895:            /*printf("stre=%s ", stre);*/
                   4896:        }
                   4897:        else if (strcmp(strd,"age")==0) { /* or age*Vn */
                   4898:          cptcovprod--;
                   4899:          cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V');
                   4900:          Tvar[i]=atoi(stre);
                   4901:          cptcovage++;
                   4902:          Tage[cptcovage]=i;
                   4903:        }
                   4904:        else {  /* Age is not in the model */
                   4905:          cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V'); /* strc= Vn, stre is n*/
                   4906:          Tvar[i]=ncovcol+k1;
                   4907:          cutv(strb,strc,strd,'V'); /* strd was Vm, strc is m */
                   4908:          Tprod[k1]=i;
                   4909:          Tvard[k1][1]=atoi(strc); /* m*/
                   4910:          Tvard[k1][2]=atoi(stre); /* n */
                   4911:          Tvar[cptcovn+k2]=Tvard[k1][1];
                   4912:          Tvar[cptcovn+k2+1]=Tvard[k1][2]; 
                   4913:          for (k=1; k<=lastobs;k++) 
                   4914:            covar[ncovcol+k1][k]=covar[atoi(stre)][k]*covar[atoi(strc)][k];
                   4915:          k1++;
                   4916:          k2=k2+2;
                   4917:        }
                   4918:       }
                   4919:       else { /* no more sum */
                   4920:        /*printf("d=%s c=%s b=%s\n", strd,strc,strb);*/
                   4921:        /*  scanf("%d",i);*/
                   4922:       cutv(strd,strc,strb,'V');
                   4923:       Tvar[i]=atoi(strc);
                   4924:       }
                   4925:       strcpy(modelsav,stra);  
                   4926:       /*printf("a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n", stra,strb,modelsav);
                   4927:        scanf("%d",i);*/
                   4928:     } /* end of loop + */
                   4929:   } /* end model */
                   4930:   
1.58      lievre   4931:   /*The number n of Vn is stored in Tvar. cptcovage =number of age covariate. Tage gives the position of age. cptcovprod= number of products.
                   4932:     If model=V1+V1*age then Tvar[1]=1 Tvar[2]=1 cptcovage=1 Tage[1]=2 cptcovprod=0*/
                   4933: 
1.53      brouard  4934:   /* printf("tvar1=%d tvar2=%d tvar3=%d cptcovage=%d Tage=%d",Tvar[1],Tvar[2],Tvar[3],cptcovage,Tage[1]);
                   4935:   printf("cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);
                   4936:   fprintf(ficlog,"cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);
1.58      lievre   4937: 
1.113     brouard  4938:   scanf("%d ",i);*/
1.53      brouard  4939: 
                   4940:     /*  if(mle==1){*/
1.59      brouard  4941:   if (weightopt != 1) { /* Maximisation without weights*/
                   4942:     for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0;
                   4943:   }
1.53      brouard  4944:     /*-calculation of age at interview from date of interview and age at death -*/
1.59      brouard  4945:   agev=matrix(1,maxwav,1,imx);
1.53      brouard  4946: 
1.59      brouard  4947:   for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
                   4948:     for(m=2; (m<= maxwav); m++) {
1.76      brouard  4949:       if (((int)mint[m][i]== 99) && (s[m][i] <= nlstate)){
1.59      brouard  4950:        anint[m][i]=9999;
                   4951:        s[m][i]=-1;
                   4952:       }
1.76      brouard  4953:       if((int)moisdc[i]==99 && (int)andc[i]==9999 && s[m][i]>nlstate){
1.91      brouard  4954:        nberr++;
1.85      brouard  4955:        printf("Error! Date of death (month %2d and year %4d) of individual %ld on line %d was unknown, you must set an arbitrary year of death or he/she is skipped and results are biased\n",(int)moisdc[i],(int)andc[i],num[i],i);
                   4956:        fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Date of death (month %2d and year %4d) of individual %ld on line %d was unknown, you must set an arbitrary year of death or he/she is skipped and results are biased\n",(int)moisdc[i],(int)andc[i],num[i],i);
1.76      brouard  4957:        s[m][i]=-1;
                   4958:       }
                   4959:       if((int)moisdc[i]==99 && (int)andc[i]!=9999 && s[m][i]>nlstate){
1.91      brouard  4960:        nberr++;
1.85      brouard  4961:        printf("Error! Month of death of individual %ld on line %d was unknown %2d, you should set it otherwise the information on the death is skipped and results are biased.\n",num[i],i,(int)moisdc[i]); 
                   4962:        fprintf(ficlog,"Error! Month of death of individual %ld on line %d was unknown %f, you should set it otherwise the information on the death is skipped and results are biased.\n",num[i],i,moisdc[i]); 
1.84      brouard  4963:        s[m][i]=-1; /* We prefer to skip it (and to skip it in version 0.8a1 too */
1.76      brouard  4964:       }
1.53      brouard  4965:     }
1.59      brouard  4966:   }
1.53      brouard  4967: 
1.59      brouard  4968:   for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {
                   4969:     agedc[i]=(moisdc[i]/12.+andc[i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+annais[i]);
1.71      brouard  4970:     for(m=firstpass; (m<= lastpass); m++){
1.105     lievre   4971:       if(s[m][i] >0 || s[m][i]==-2 || s[m][i]==-4 || s[m][i]==-5){
1.59      brouard  4972:        if (s[m][i] >= nlstate+1) {
                   4973:          if(agedc[i]>0)
1.76      brouard  4974:            if((int)moisdc[i]!=99 && (int)andc[i]!=9999)
1.69      brouard  4975:              agev[m][i]=agedc[i];
1.59      brouard  4976:          /*if(moisdc[i]==99 && andc[i]==9999) s[m][i]=-1;*/
                   4977:            else {
1.76      brouard  4978:              if ((int)andc[i]!=9999){
1.91      brouard  4979:                nbwarn++;
1.85      brouard  4980:                printf("Warning negative age at death: %ld line:%d\n",num[i],i);
                   4981:                fprintf(ficlog,"Warning negative age at death: %ld line:%d\n",num[i],i);
1.59      brouard  4982:                agev[m][i]=-1;
1.53      brouard  4983:              }
                   4984:            }
1.70      brouard  4985:        }
1.69      brouard  4986:        else if(s[m][i] !=9){ /* Standard case, age in fractional
1.108     lievre   4987:                                 years but with the precision of a month */
1.59      brouard  4988:          agev[m][i]=(mint[m][i]/12.+1./24.+anint[m][i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+1./24.+annais[i]);
1.76      brouard  4989:          if((int)mint[m][i]==99 || (int)anint[m][i]==9999)
1.59      brouard  4990:            agev[m][i]=1;
                   4991:          else if(agev[m][i] <agemin){ 
                   4992:            agemin=agev[m][i];
                   4993:            /*printf(" Min anint[%d][%d]=%.2f annais[%d]=%.2f, agemin=%.2f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], agemin);*/
1.53      brouard  4994:          }
1.59      brouard  4995:          else if(agev[m][i] >agemax){
                   4996:            agemax=agev[m][i];
                   4997:            /* printf(" anint[%d][%d]=%.0f annais[%d]=%.0f, agemax=%.0f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], agemax);*/
1.53      brouard  4998:          }
1.59      brouard  4999:          /*agev[m][i]=anint[m][i]-annais[i];*/
                   5000:          /*     agev[m][i] = age[i]+2*m;*/
1.53      brouard  5001:        }
1.59      brouard  5002:        else { /* =9 */
1.53      brouard  5003:          agev[m][i]=1;
1.59      brouard  5004:          s[m][i]=-1;
                   5005:        }
1.53      brouard  5006:       }
1.59      brouard  5007:       else /*= 0 Unknown */
                   5008:        agev[m][i]=1;
                   5009:     }
1.53      brouard  5010:     
1.59      brouard  5011:   }
                   5012:   for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {
1.71      brouard  5013:     for(m=firstpass; (m<=lastpass); m++){
1.59      brouard  5014:       if (s[m][i] > (nlstate+ndeath)) {
1.91      brouard  5015:        nberr++;
1.59      brouard  5016:        printf("Error: on wave %d of individual %d status %d > (nlstate+ndeath)=(%d+%d)=%d\n",m,i,s[m][i],nlstate, ndeath, nlstate+ndeath);     
                   5017:        fprintf(ficlog,"Error: on wave %d of individual %d status %d > (nlstate+ndeath)=(%d+%d)=%d\n",m,i,s[m][i],nlstate, ndeath, nlstate+ndeath);     
                   5018:        goto end;
1.53      brouard  5019:       }
                   5020:     }
1.59      brouard  5021:   }
1.53      brouard  5022: 
1.71      brouard  5023:   /*for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
                   5024:   for (m=firstpass; (m<lastpass); m++){
1.85      brouard  5025:      printf("%ld %d %.lf %d %d\n", num[i],(covar[1][i]),agev[m][i],s[m][i],s[m+1][i]);
1.71      brouard  5026: }
                   5027: 
                   5028: }*/
                   5029: 
1.97      lievre   5030: 
1.59      brouard  5031:   printf("Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx, agemin, agemax);
                   5032:   fprintf(ficlog,"Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx, agemin, agemax); 
                   5033: 
1.98      brouard  5034:   agegomp=(int)agemin;
1.59      brouard  5035:   free_vector(severity,1,maxwav);
                   5036:   free_imatrix(outcome,1,maxwav+1,1,n);
                   5037:   free_vector(moisnais,1,n);
                   5038:   free_vector(annais,1,n);
                   5039:   /* free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);
                   5040:      free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n);*/
                   5041:   free_vector(moisdc,1,n);
                   5042:   free_vector(andc,1,n);
1.53      brouard  5043: 
                   5044:    
1.59      brouard  5045:   wav=ivector(1,imx);
                   5046:   dh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
                   5047:   bh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
                   5048:   mw=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
1.69      brouard  5049:    
1.59      brouard  5050:   /* Concatenates waves */
                   5051:   concatwav(wav, dh, bh, mw, s, agedc, agev,  firstpass, lastpass, imx, nlstate, stepm);
1.53      brouard  5052: 
1.59      brouard  5053:   /* Routine tricode is to calculate cptcoveff (real number of unique covariates) and to associate covariable number and modality */
1.53      brouard  5054: 
1.59      brouard  5055:   Tcode=ivector(1,100);
                   5056:   nbcode=imatrix(0,NCOVMAX,0,NCOVMAX); 
                   5057:   ncodemax[1]=1;
                   5058:   if (cptcovn > 0) tricode(Tvar,nbcode,imx);
1.53      brouard  5059:       
1.59      brouard  5060:   codtab=imatrix(1,100,1,10); /* Cross tabulation to get the order of 
                   5061:                                 the estimations*/
                   5062:   h=0;
                   5063:   m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
1.53      brouard  5064:  
1.59      brouard  5065:   for(k=1;k<=cptcoveff; k++){
                   5066:     for(i=1; i <=(m/pow(2,k));i++){
                   5067:       for(j=1; j <= ncodemax[k]; j++){
                   5068:        for(cpt=1; cpt <=(m/pow(2,cptcoveff+1-k)); cpt++){
                   5069:          h++;
                   5070:          if (h>m) h=1;codtab[h][k]=j;codtab[h][Tvar[k]]=j;
                   5071:          /*  printf("h=%d k=%d j=%d codtab[h][k]=%d tvar[k]=%d \n",h, k,j,codtab[h][k],Tvar[k]);*/
                   5072:        } 
                   5073:       }
                   5074:     }
                   5075:   } 
                   5076:   /* printf("codtab[1][2]=%d codtab[2][2]=%d",codtab[1][2],codtab[2][2]); 
                   5077:      codtab[1][2]=1;codtab[2][2]=2; */
                   5078:   /* for(i=1; i <=m ;i++){ 
                   5079:      for(k=1; k <=cptcovn; k++){
                   5080:      printf("i=%d k=%d %d %d ",i,k,codtab[i][k], cptcoveff);
                   5081:      }
                   5082:      printf("\n");
1.53      brouard  5083:      }
1.59      brouard  5084:      scanf("%d",i);*/
1.53      brouard  5085:     
1.86      brouard  5086:   /*------------ gnuplot -------------*/
                   5087:   strcpy(optionfilegnuplot,optionfilefiname);
1.98      brouard  5088:   if(mle==-3)
                   5089:     strcat(optionfilegnuplot,"-mort");
1.86      brouard  5090:   strcat(optionfilegnuplot,".gp");
1.98      brouard  5091: 
1.86      brouard  5092:   if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"w"))==NULL) {
                   5093:     printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot);
                   5094:   }
                   5095:   else{
                   5096:     fprintf(ficgp,"\n# %s\n", version); 
                   5097:     fprintf(ficgp,"# %s\n", optionfilegnuplot); 
                   5098:     fprintf(ficgp,"set missing 'NaNq'\n");
                   5099:   }
1.88      brouard  5100:   /*  fclose(ficgp);*/
1.86      brouard  5101:   /*--------- index.htm --------*/
                   5102: 
1.91      brouard  5103:   strcpy(optionfilehtm,optionfilefiname); /* Main html file */
1.98      brouard  5104:   if(mle==-3)
                   5105:     strcat(optionfilehtm,"-mort");
1.86      brouard  5106:   strcat(optionfilehtm,".htm");
                   5107:   if((fichtm=fopen(optionfilehtm,"w"))==NULL)    {
                   5108:     printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtm), exit(0);
                   5109:   }
                   5110: 
1.91      brouard  5111:   strcpy(optionfilehtmcov,optionfilefiname); /* Only for matrix of covariance */
                   5112:   strcat(optionfilehtmcov,"-cov.htm");
                   5113:   if((fichtmcov=fopen(optionfilehtmcov,"w"))==NULL)    {
                   5114:     printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtmcov), exit(0);
                   5115:   }
                   5116:   else{
                   5117:   fprintf(fichtmcov,"<body>\n<title>IMaCh Cov %s</title>\n <font size=\"2\">%s <br> %s</font> \
                   5118: <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n\
                   5119: Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>\n",\
                   5120:          fileres,version,fullversion,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt, model);
                   5121:   }
                   5122: 
1.87      brouard  5123:   fprintf(fichtm,"<body>\n<title>IMaCh %s</title>\n <font size=\"2\">%s <br> %s</font> \
1.86      brouard  5124: <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n\
                   5125: Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>\n\
                   5126: \n\
                   5127: <hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">\
                   5128:  <ul><li><h4>Parameter files</h4>\n\
1.117     brouard  5129:  - Parameter file: <a href=\"%s.%s\">%s.%s</a><br>\n\
1.86      brouard  5130:  - Copy of the parameter file: <a href=\"o%s\">o%s</a><br>\n\
                   5131:  - Log file of the run: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n\
1.87      brouard  5132:  - Gnuplot file name: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n\
1.86      brouard  5133:  - Date and time at start: %s</ul>\n",\
1.91      brouard  5134:          fileres,version,fullversion,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt, model,\
1.117     brouard  5135:          optionfilefiname,optionfilext,optionfilefiname,optionfilext,\
1.91      brouard  5136:          fileres,fileres,\
1.88      brouard  5137:          filelog,filelog,optionfilegnuplot,optionfilegnuplot,strstart);
1.87      brouard  5138:   fflush(fichtm);
1.86      brouard  5139: 
1.88      brouard  5140:   strcpy(pathr,path);
                   5141:   strcat(pathr,optionfilefiname);
                   5142:   chdir(optionfilefiname); /* Move to directory named optionfile */
                   5143:   
1.59      brouard  5144:   /* Calculates basic frequencies. Computes observed prevalence at single age
                   5145:      and prints on file fileres'p'. */
1.105     lievre   5146:   freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,strstart);
1.53      brouard  5147: 
1.88      brouard  5148:   fprintf(fichtm,"\n");
                   5149:   fprintf(fichtm,"<br>Total number of observations=%d <br>\n\
1.86      brouard  5150: Youngest age at first (selected) pass %.2f, oldest age %.2f<br>\n\
                   5151: Interval (in months) between two waves: Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%.2lf<br>\n",\
1.88      brouard  5152:          imx,agemin,agemax,jmin,jmax,jmean);
                   5153:   pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
1.60      brouard  5154:     oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
                   5155:     newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
                   5156:     savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
                   5157:     oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */
1.53      brouard  5158:     
                   5159:    
1.59      brouard  5160:   /* For Powell, parameters are in a vector p[] starting at p[1]
                   5161:      so we point p on param[1][1] so that p[1] maps on param[1][1][1] */
                   5162:   p=param[1][1]; /* *(*(*(param +1)+1)+0) */
1.53      brouard  5163: 
1.86      brouard  5164:   globpr=0; /* To get the number ipmx of contributions and the sum of weights*/
1.110     brouard  5165: 
1.98      brouard  5166:   if (mle==-3){
                   5167:     ximort=matrix(1,NDIM,1,NDIM);
                   5168:     cens=ivector(1,n);
                   5169:     ageexmed=vector(1,n);
                   5170:     agecens=vector(1,n);
                   5171:     dcwave=ivector(1,n);
                   5172:  
                   5173:     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
                   5174:       dcwave[i]=-1;
1.110     brouard  5175:       for (m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++)
                   5176:        if (s[m][i]>nlstate) {
                   5177:          dcwave[i]=m;
1.98      brouard  5178:          /*    printf("i=%d j=%d s=%d dcwave=%d\n",i,j, s[j][i],dcwave[i]);*/
                   5179:          break;
                   5180:        }
                   5181:     }
                   5182: 
                   5183:     for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
                   5184:       if (wav[i]>0){
                   5185:        ageexmed[i]=agev[mw[1][i]][i];
1.110     brouard  5186:        j=wav[i];
                   5187:        agecens[i]=1.; 
                   5188: 
                   5189:        if (ageexmed[i]> 1 && wav[i] > 0){
                   5190:          agecens[i]=agev[mw[j][i]][i];
                   5191:          cens[i]= 1;
                   5192:        }else if (ageexmed[i]< 1) 
                   5193:          cens[i]= -1;
                   5194:        if (agedc[i]< AGESUP && agedc[i]>1 && dcwave[i]>firstpass && dcwave[i]<=lastpass)
                   5195:          cens[i]=0 ;
1.98      brouard  5196:       }
                   5197:       else cens[i]=-1;
                   5198:     }
                   5199:     
                   5200:     for (i=1;i<=NDIM;i++) {
                   5201:       for (j=1;j<=NDIM;j++)
                   5202:        ximort[i][j]=(i == j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
                   5203:     }
1.110     brouard  5204:     
1.111     brouard  5205:     p[1]=0.0268; p[NDIM]=0.083;
1.98      brouard  5206:     /*printf("%lf %lf", p[1], p[2]);*/
                   5207:     
                   5208:     
1.110     brouard  5209:     printf("Powell\n");  fprintf(ficlog,"Powell\n");
                   5210:     strcpy(filerespow,"pow-mort"); 
                   5211:     strcat(filerespow,fileres);
                   5212:     if((ficrespow=fopen(filerespow,"w"))==NULL) {
                   5213:       printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
                   5214:       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", filerespow);
                   5215:     }
                   5216:     fprintf(ficrespow,"# Powell\n# iter -2*LL");
                   5217:     /*  for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
                   5218:        for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
                   5219:        if(j!=i)fprintf(ficrespow," p%1d%1d",i,j);
                   5220:     */
                   5221:     fprintf(ficrespow,"\n");
                   5222:     
1.98      brouard  5223:     powell(p,ximort,NDIM,ftol,&iter,&fret,gompertz);
                   5224:     fclose(ficrespow);
1.53      brouard  5225:     
1.110     brouard  5226:     hesscov(matcov, p, NDIM, delti, 1e-4, gompertz); 
1.53      brouard  5227: 
1.98      brouard  5228:     for(i=1; i <=NDIM; i++)
                   5229:       for(j=i+1;j<=NDIM;j++)
                   5230:        matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];
                   5231:     
                   5232:     printf("\nCovariance matrix\n ");
                   5233:     for(i=1; i <=NDIM; i++) {
                   5234:       for(j=1;j<=NDIM;j++){ 
                   5235:        printf("%f ",matcov[i][j]);
1.95      brouard  5236:       }
1.98      brouard  5237:       printf("\n ");
                   5238:     }
                   5239:     
                   5240:     printf("iter=%d MLE=%f Eq=%lf*exp(%lf*(age-%d))\n",iter,-gompertz(p),p[1],p[2],agegomp);
                   5241:     for (i=1;i<=NDIM;i++) 
                   5242:       printf("%f [%f ; %f]\n",p[i],p[i]-2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]),p[i]+2*sqrt(matcov[i][i]));
1.105     lievre   5243: 
1.110     brouard  5244:     lsurv=vector(1,AGESUP);
1.105     lievre   5245:     lpop=vector(1,AGESUP);
                   5246:     tpop=vector(1,AGESUP);
                   5247:     lsurv[agegomp]=100000;
1.110     brouard  5248:     
                   5249:     for (k=agegomp;k<=AGESUP;k++) {
1.105     lievre   5250:       agemortsup=k;
                   5251:       if (p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp))>1) break;
                   5252:     }
1.110     brouard  5253:     
                   5254:     for (k=agegomp;k<agemortsup;k++)
1.105     lievre   5255:       lsurv[k+1]=lsurv[k]-lsurv[k]*(p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)));
1.110     brouard  5256:     
1.105     lievre   5257:     for (k=agegomp;k<agemortsup;k++){
                   5258:       lpop[k]=(lsurv[k]+lsurv[k+1])/2.;
                   5259:       sumlpop=sumlpop+lpop[k];
                   5260:     }
1.110     brouard  5261:     
                   5262:     tpop[agegomp]=sumlpop;
1.105     lievre   5263:     for (k=agegomp;k<(agemortsup-3);k++){
                   5264:       /*  tpop[k+1]=2;*/
                   5265:       tpop[k+1]=tpop[k]-lpop[k];
1.110     brouard  5266:     }
                   5267:     
                   5268:     
                   5269:     printf("\nAge   lx     qx    dx    Lx     Tx     e(x)\n");
1.105     lievre   5270:     for (k=agegomp;k<(agemortsup-2);k++) 
                   5271:       printf("%d %.0lf %lf %.0lf %.0lf %.0lf %lf\n",k,lsurv[k],p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)),(p[1]*exp(p[2]*(k-agegomp)))*lsurv[k],lpop[k],tpop[k],tpop[k]/lsurv[k]);
1.110     brouard  5272:     
                   5273:     
1.119     brouard  5274:     replace_back_to_slash(pathc,pathcd); /* Even gnuplot wants a / */
1.98      brouard  5275:     printinggnuplotmort(fileres, optionfilefiname,ageminpar,agemaxpar,fage, pathc,p);
                   5276:     
                   5277:     printinghtmlmort(fileres,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, \
                   5278:                     stepm, weightopt,\
1.105     lievre   5279:                     model,imx,p,matcov,agemortsup);
1.110     brouard  5280:     
1.105     lievre   5281:     free_vector(lsurv,1,AGESUP);
                   5282:     free_vector(lpop,1,AGESUP);
                   5283:     free_vector(tpop,1,AGESUP);
1.98      brouard  5284:   } /* Endof if mle==-3 */
1.110     brouard  5285:   
1.98      brouard  5286:   else{ /* For mle >=1 */
                   5287:   
                   5288:     likelione(ficres, p, npar, nlstate, &globpr, &ipmx, &sw, &fretone, funcone); /* Prints the contributions to the likelihood */
                   5289:     printf("First Likeli=%12.6f ipmx=%ld sw=%12.6f",fretone,ipmx,sw);
                   5290:     for (k=1; k<=npar;k++)
                   5291:       printf(" %d %8.5f",k,p[k]);
                   5292:     printf("\n");
                   5293:     globpr=1; /* to print the contributions */
                   5294:     likelione(ficres, p, npar, nlstate, &globpr, &ipmx, &sw, &fretone, funcone); /* Prints the contributions to the likelihood */
                   5295:     printf("Second Likeli=%12.6f ipmx=%ld sw=%12.6f",fretone,ipmx,sw);
                   5296:     for (k=1; k<=npar;k++)
                   5297:       printf(" %d %8.5f",k,p[k]);
                   5298:     printf("\n");
                   5299:     if(mle>=1){ /* Could be 1 or 2 */
                   5300:       mlikeli(ficres,p, npar, ncovmodel, nlstate, ftol, func);
1.59      brouard  5301:     }
1.98      brouard  5302:     
                   5303:     /*--------- results files --------------*/
                   5304:     fprintf(ficres,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle= 0 weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate, ndeath, maxwav, weightopt,model);
                   5305:     
                   5306:     
                   5307:     fprintf(ficres,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
                   5308:     printf("# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
                   5309:     fprintf(ficlog,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
                   5310:     for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
                   5311:       for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
                   5312:        if (k != i) {
                   5313:          printf("%d%d ",i,k);
                   5314:          fprintf(ficlog,"%d%d ",i,k);
                   5315:          fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d ",i,k);
                   5316:          for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
                   5317:            printf("%f ",p[jk]);
                   5318:            fprintf(ficlog,"%f ",p[jk]);
                   5319:            fprintf(ficres,"%f ",p[jk]);
                   5320:            jk++; 
                   5321:          }
                   5322:          printf("\n");
                   5323:          fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
                   5324:          fprintf(ficres,"\n");
1.59      brouard  5325:        }
                   5326:       }
                   5327:     }
1.98      brouard  5328:     if(mle!=0){
                   5329:       /* Computing hessian and covariance matrix */
                   5330:       ftolhess=ftol; /* Usually correct */
                   5331:       hesscov(matcov, p, npar, delti, ftolhess, func);
                   5332:     }
                   5333:     fprintf(ficres,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
                   5334:     printf("# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
                   5335:     fprintf(ficlog,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
                   5336:     for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
1.95      brouard  5337:       for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
1.98      brouard  5338:        if (j!=i) {
                   5339:          fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d",i,j);
                   5340:          printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
                   5341:          fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i,j);
                   5342:          for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
                   5343:            printf(" %.5e",delti[jk]);
                   5344:            fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",delti[jk]);
                   5345:            fprintf(ficres," %.5e",delti[jk]);
                   5346:            jk++;
1.95      brouard  5347:          }
1.98      brouard  5348:          printf("\n");
                   5349:          fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
                   5350:          fprintf(ficres,"\n");
                   5351:        }
                   5352:       }
                   5353:     }
                   5354:     
                   5355:     fprintf(ficres,"# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
                   5356:     if(mle>=1)
                   5357:       printf("# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
                   5358:     fprintf(ficlog,"# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
                   5359:     /* # 121 Var(a12)\n\ */
                   5360:     /* # 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n\ */
                   5361:     /* # 131 Cov(a13,a12) Cov(a13,b12, Var(a13)\n\ */
                   5362:     /* # 132 Cov(b13,a12) Cov(b13,b12, Cov(b13,a13) Var(b13)\n\ */
                   5363:     /* # 212 Cov(a21,a12) Cov(a21,b12, Cov(a21,a13) Cov(a21,b13) Var(a21)\n\ */
                   5364:     /* # 212 Cov(b21,a12) Cov(b21,b12, Cov(b21,a13) Cov(b21,b13) Cov(b21,a21) Var(b21)\n\ */
                   5365:     /* # 232 Cov(a23,a12) Cov(a23,b12, Cov(a23,a13) Cov(a23,b13) Cov(a23,a21) Cov(a23,b21) Var(a23)\n\ */
                   5366:     /* # 232 Cov(b23,a12) Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n" */
                   5367:     
                   5368:     
                   5369:     /* Just to have a covariance matrix which will be more understandable
                   5370:        even is we still don't want to manage dictionary of variables
                   5371:     */
                   5372:     for(itimes=1;itimes<=2;itimes++){
                   5373:       jj=0;
                   5374:       for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
                   5375:        for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
                   5376:          if(j==i) continue;
                   5377:          for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
                   5378:            jj++;
                   5379:            ca[0]= k+'a'-1;ca[1]='\0';
                   5380:            if(itimes==1){
                   5381:              if(mle>=1)
                   5382:                printf("#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
                   5383:              fprintf(ficlog,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
                   5384:              fprintf(ficres,"#%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
                   5385:            }else{
                   5386:              if(mle>=1)
                   5387:                printf("%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
                   5388:              fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
                   5389:              fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d%d",i,j,k);
                   5390:            }
                   5391:            ll=0;
                   5392:            for(li=1;li <=nlstate; li++){
                   5393:              for(lj=1;lj <=nlstate+ndeath; lj++){
                   5394:                if(lj==li) continue;
                   5395:                for(lk=1;lk<=ncovmodel;lk++){
                   5396:                  ll++;
                   5397:                  if(ll<=jj){
                   5398:                    cb[0]= lk +'a'-1;cb[1]='\0';
                   5399:                    if(ll<jj){
                   5400:                      if(itimes==1){
                   5401:                        if(mle>=1)
                   5402:                          printf(" Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                   5403:                        fprintf(ficlog," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                   5404:                        fprintf(ficres," Cov(%s%1d%1d,%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j,cb, li,lj);
                   5405:                      }else{
                   5406:                        if(mle>=1)
                   5407:                          printf(" %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                   5408:                        fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                   5409:                        fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                   5410:                      }
1.95      brouard  5411:                    }else{
1.98      brouard  5412:                      if(itimes==1){
                   5413:                        if(mle>=1)
                   5414:                          printf(" Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                   5415:                        fprintf(ficlog," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                   5416:                        fprintf(ficres," Var(%s%1d%1d)",ca,i,j);
                   5417:                      }else{
                   5418:                        if(mle>=1)
                   5419:                          printf(" %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                   5420:                        fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                   5421:                        fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[jj][ll]); 
                   5422:                      }
1.95      brouard  5423:                    }
                   5424:                  }
1.98      brouard  5425:                } /* end lk */
                   5426:              } /* end lj */
                   5427:            } /* end li */
                   5428:            if(mle>=1)
                   5429:              printf("\n");
                   5430:            fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
                   5431:            fprintf(ficres,"\n");
                   5432:            numlinepar++;
                   5433:          } /* end k*/
                   5434:        } /*end j */
                   5435:       } /* end i */
                   5436:     } /* end itimes */
                   5437:     
                   5438:     fflush(ficlog);
                   5439:     fflush(ficres);
                   5440:     
                   5441:     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
                   5442:       ungetc(c,ficpar);
                   5443:       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
                   5444:       puts(line);
                   5445:       fputs(line,ficparo);
                   5446:     }
1.59      brouard  5447:     ungetc(c,ficpar);
1.98      brouard  5448:     
                   5449:     estepm=0;
                   5450:     fscanf(ficpar,"agemin=%lf agemax=%lf bage=%lf fage=%lf estepm=%d\n",&ageminpar,&agemaxpar, &bage, &fage, &estepm);
                   5451:     if (estepm==0 || estepm < stepm) estepm=stepm;
                   5452:     if (fage <= 2) {
                   5453:       bage = ageminpar;
                   5454:       fage = agemaxpar;
                   5455:     }
                   5456:     
                   5457:     fprintf(ficres,"# agemin agemax for life expectancy, bage fage (if mle==0 ie no data nor Max likelihood).\n");
                   5458:     fprintf(ficres,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm);
                   5459:     fprintf(ficparo,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm);
                   5460:     
                   5461:     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
                   5462:       ungetc(c,ficpar);
                   5463:       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
                   5464:       puts(line);
                   5465:       fputs(line,ficparo);
                   5466:     }
1.59      brouard  5467:     ungetc(c,ficpar);
1.98      brouard  5468:     
                   5469:     fscanf(ficpar,"begin-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf end-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mov_average=%d\n",&jprev1, &mprev1,&anprev1,&jprev2, &mprev2,&anprev2,&mobilav);
                   5470:     fprintf(ficparo,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
                   5471:     fprintf(ficres,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
                   5472:     printf("begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
                   5473:     fprintf(ficlog,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
                   5474:     
                   5475:     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
                   5476:       ungetc(c,ficpar);
                   5477:       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
                   5478:       puts(line);
                   5479:       fputs(line,ficparo);
                   5480:     }
1.59      brouard  5481:     ungetc(c,ficpar);
1.98      brouard  5482:     
                   5483:     
                   5484:     dateprev1=anprev1+(mprev1-1)/12.+(jprev1-1)/365.;
                   5485:     dateprev2=anprev2+(mprev2-1)/12.+(jprev2-1)/365.;
                   5486:     
                   5487:     fscanf(ficpar,"pop_based=%d\n",&popbased);
                   5488:     fprintf(ficparo,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);   
                   5489:     fprintf(ficres,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);   
                   5490:     
                   5491:     while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
                   5492:       ungetc(c,ficpar);
                   5493:       fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
                   5494:       puts(line);
                   5495:       fputs(line,ficparo);
                   5496:     }
1.53      brouard  5497:     ungetc(c,ficpar);
1.98      brouard  5498:     
                   5499:     fscanf(ficpar,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf final-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mobil_average=%d\n",&prevfcast,&jproj1,&mproj1,&anproj1,&jproj2,&mproj2,&anproj2,&mobilavproj);
                   5500:     fprintf(ficparo,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
                   5501:     printf("prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
                   5502:     fprintf(ficlog,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
                   5503:     fprintf(ficres,"prevforecast=%d starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mobil_average=%d\n",prevfcast,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,mobilavproj);
                   5504:     /* day and month of proj2 are not used but only year anproj2.*/
                   5505:     
                   5506:     
                   5507:     
                   5508:     /*  freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvaraff,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint);*/
                   5509:     /*,dateprev1,dateprev2,jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);*/
                   5510:     
1.119     brouard  5511:     replace_back_to_slash(pathc,pathcd); /* Even gnuplot wants a / */
1.98      brouard  5512:     printinggnuplot(fileres, optionfilefiname,ageminpar,agemaxpar,fage, pathc,p);
                   5513:     
                   5514:     printinghtml(fileres,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, stepm, weightopt,\
                   5515:                 model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,rfileres,popforecast,estepm,\
                   5516:                 jprev1,mprev1,anprev1,jprev2,mprev2,anprev2);
                   5517:       
                   5518:    /*------------ free_vector  -------------*/
                   5519:    /*  chdir(path); */
1.53      brouard  5520:  
1.98      brouard  5521:     free_ivector(wav,1,imx);
                   5522:     free_imatrix(dh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
                   5523:     free_imatrix(bh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
                   5524:     free_imatrix(mw,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);   
                   5525:     free_lvector(num,1,n);
                   5526:     free_vector(agedc,1,n);
                   5527:     /*free_matrix(covar,0,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/
                   5528:     /*free_matrix(covar,1,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/
                   5529:     fclose(ficparo);
                   5530:     fclose(ficres);
                   5531: 
                   5532: 
1.117     brouard  5533:     /*--------------- Prevalence limit  (period or stable prevalence) --------------*/
1.98      brouard  5534:   
                   5535:     strcpy(filerespl,"pl");
                   5536:     strcat(filerespl,fileres);
                   5537:     if((ficrespl=fopen(filerespl,"w"))==NULL) {
1.117     brouard  5538:       printf("Problem with period (stable) prevalence resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);goto end;
                   5539:       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with period (stable) prevalence resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);goto end;
1.98      brouard  5540:     }
1.117     brouard  5541:     printf("Computing period (stable) prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);
                   5542:     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing period (stable) prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);
                   5543:     pstamp(ficrespl);
                   5544:     fprintf(ficrespl,"# Period (stable) prevalence \n");
1.98      brouard  5545:     fprintf(ficrespl,"#Age ");
                   5546:     for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrespl,"%d-%d ",i,i);
                   5547:     fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");
                   5548:   
                   5549:     prlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
                   5550: 
                   5551:     agebase=ageminpar;
                   5552:     agelim=agemaxpar;
                   5553:     ftolpl=1.e-10;
                   5554:     i1=cptcoveff;
                   5555:     if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
                   5556: 
                   5557:     for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
                   5558:       for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
                   5559:        k=k+1;
                   5560:        /*printf("cptcov=%d cptcod=%d codtab=%d nbcode=%d\n",cptcov, cptcod,Tcode[cptcode],codtab[cptcod][cptcov]);*/
                   5561:        fprintf(ficrespl,"\n#******");
                   5562:        printf("\n#******");
                   5563:        fprintf(ficlog,"\n#******");
                   5564:        for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
                   5565:          fprintf(ficrespl," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
                   5566:          printf(" V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
                   5567:          fprintf(ficlog," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
                   5568:        }
                   5569:        fprintf(ficrespl,"******\n");
                   5570:        printf("******\n");
                   5571:        fprintf(ficlog,"******\n");
1.53      brouard  5572:        
1.98      brouard  5573:        for (age=agebase; age<=agelim; age++){
                   5574:          prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);
                   5575:          fprintf(ficrespl,"%.0f ",age );
                   5576:          for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++)
                   5577:            fprintf(ficrespl,"%d %d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
                   5578:          for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                   5579:            fprintf(ficrespl," %.5f", prlim[i][i]);
                   5580:          fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");
                   5581:        }
1.53      brouard  5582:       }
                   5583:     }
1.98      brouard  5584:     fclose(ficrespl);
1.53      brouard  5585: 
1.98      brouard  5586:     /*------------- h Pij x at various ages ------------*/
1.53      brouard  5587:   
1.98      brouard  5588:     strcpy(filerespij,"pij");  strcat(filerespij,fileres);
                   5589:     if((ficrespij=fopen(filerespij,"w"))==NULL) {
                   5590:       printf("Problem with Pij resultfile: %s\n", filerespij);goto end;
                   5591:       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Pij resultfile: %s\n", filerespij);goto end;
                   5592:     }
                   5593:     printf("Computing pij: result on file '%s' \n", filerespij);
                   5594:     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing pij: result on file '%s' \n", filerespij);
1.53      brouard  5595:   
1.98      brouard  5596:     stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
                   5597:     /*if (stepm<=24) stepsize=2;*/
1.53      brouard  5598: 
1.98      brouard  5599:     agelim=AGESUP;
                   5600:     hstepm=stepsize*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
                   5601:     hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */ 
1.53      brouard  5602: 
1.98      brouard  5603:     /* hstepm=1;   aff par mois*/
1.117     brouard  5604:     pstamp(ficrespij);
1.98      brouard  5605:     fprintf(ficrespij,"#****** h Pij x Probability to be in state j at age x+h being in i at x ");
                   5606:     for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
                   5607:       for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
                   5608:        k=k+1;
                   5609:        fprintf(ficrespij,"\n#****** ");
                   5610:        for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
                   5611:          fprintf(ficrespij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
                   5612:        fprintf(ficrespij,"******\n");
1.53      brouard  5613:        
1.98      brouard  5614:        for (agedeb=fage; agedeb>=bage; agedeb--){ /* If stepm=6 months */
                   5615:          nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */ 
                   5616:          nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */
1.59      brouard  5617: 
1.98      brouard  5618:          /*      nhstepm=nhstepm*YEARM; aff par mois*/
1.59      brouard  5619: 
1.98      brouard  5620:          p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
                   5621:          oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
                   5622:          hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
                   5623:          fprintf(ficrespij,"# Cov Agex agex+h hpijx with i,j=");
1.53      brouard  5624:          for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                   5625:            for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
1.98      brouard  5626:              fprintf(ficrespij," %1d-%1d",i,j);
                   5627:          fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
                   5628:          for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
                   5629:            fprintf(ficrespij,"%d %3.f %3.f",k,agedeb, agedeb+ h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm );
                   5630:            for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                   5631:              for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
                   5632:                fprintf(ficrespij," %.5f", p3mat[i][j][h]);
                   5633:            fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
                   5634:          }
                   5635:          free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
1.53      brouard  5636:          fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
                   5637:        }
1.59      brouard  5638:       }
1.53      brouard  5639:     }
                   5640: 
1.105     lievre   5641:     varprob(optionfilefiname, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, bage, fage,k,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,strstart);
1.53      brouard  5642: 
1.98      brouard  5643:     fclose(ficrespij);
1.53      brouard  5644: 
1.98      brouard  5645:     probs= ma3x(1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
                   5646:     for(i=1;i<=AGESUP;i++)
                   5647:       for(j=1;j<=NCOVMAX;j++)
                   5648:        for(k=1;k<=NCOVMAX;k++)
                   5649:          probs[i][j][k]=0.;
                   5650: 
                   5651:     /*---------- Forecasting ------------------*/
                   5652:     /*if((stepm == 1) && (strcmp(model,".")==0)){*/
                   5653:     if(prevfcast==1){
                   5654:       /*    if(stepm ==1){*/
1.70      brouard  5655:       prevforecast(fileres, anproj1, mproj1, jproj1, agemin, agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2, mobilavproj, bage, fage, firstpass, lastpass, anproj2, p, cptcoveff);
1.74      brouard  5656:       /* (popforecast==1) populforecast(fileres, anpyram,mpyram,jpyram, agemin,agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2,mobilav, agedeb, fage, popforecast, popfile, anpyram1,p, i1);*/
1.98      brouard  5657:       /*      }  */
                   5658:       /*      else{ */
                   5659:       /*        erreur=108; */
                   5660:       /*        printf("Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model); */
                   5661:       /*        fprintf(ficlog,"Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model); */
                   5662:       /*      } */
                   5663:     }
1.53      brouard  5664:   
                   5665: 
1.98      brouard  5666:     /*---------- Health expectancies and variances ------------*/
1.53      brouard  5667: 
1.98      brouard  5668:     strcpy(filerest,"t");
                   5669:     strcat(filerest,fileres);
                   5670:     if((ficrest=fopen(filerest,"w"))==NULL) {
                   5671:       printf("Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;
                   5672:       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;
                   5673:     }
1.117     brouard  5674:     printf("Computing Total Life expectancies with their standard errors: file '%s' \n", filerest); 
                   5675:     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Total Life expectancies with their standard errors: file '%s' \n", filerest); 
1.53      brouard  5676: 
                   5677: 
1.98      brouard  5678:     strcpy(filerese,"e");
                   5679:     strcat(filerese,fileres);
                   5680:     if((ficreseij=fopen(filerese,"w"))==NULL) {
                   5681:       printf("Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);
                   5682:       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);
                   5683:     }
                   5684:     printf("Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);
                   5685:     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);
1.68      lievre   5686: 
1.117     brouard  5687:     strcpy(fileresstde,"stde");
                   5688:     strcat(fileresstde,fileres);
                   5689:     if((ficresstdeij=fopen(fileresstde,"w"))==NULL) {
                   5690:       printf("Problem with Health Exp. and std errors resultfile: %s\n", fileresstde); exit(0);
                   5691:       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Health Exp. and std errors resultfile: %s\n", fileresstde); exit(0);
                   5692:     }
                   5693:     printf("Computing Health Expectancies and standard errors: result on file '%s' \n", fileresstde);
                   5694:     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Health Expectancies and standard errors: result on file '%s' \n", fileresstde);
                   5695: 
                   5696:     strcpy(filerescve,"cve");
                   5697:     strcat(filerescve,fileres);
                   5698:     if((ficrescveij=fopen(filerescve,"w"))==NULL) {
                   5699:       printf("Problem with Covar. Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerescve); exit(0);
                   5700:       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Covar. Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerescve); exit(0);
                   5701:     }
                   5702:     printf("Computing Covar. of Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerescve);
                   5703:     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Covar. of Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerescve);
                   5704: 
1.98      brouard  5705:     strcpy(fileresv,"v");
                   5706:     strcat(fileresv,fileres);
                   5707:     if((ficresvij=fopen(fileresv,"w"))==NULL) {
                   5708:       printf("Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);
                   5709:       fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);
                   5710:     }
                   5711:     printf("Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);
                   5712:     fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);
1.58      lievre   5713: 
1.98      brouard  5714:     /* Computes prevalence between agemin (i.e minimal age computed) and no more ageminpar */
                   5715:     prevalence(probs, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx, Tvar, nbcode, ncodemax, mint, anint, dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
                   5716:     /*  printf("ageminpar=%f, agemax=%f, s[lastpass][imx]=%d, agev[lastpass][imx]=%f, nlstate=%d, imx=%d,  mint[lastpass][imx]=%f, anint[lastpass][imx]=%f,dateprev1=%f, dateprev2=%f, firstpass=%d, lastpass=%d\n",\
                   5717:        ageminpar, agemax, s[lastpass][imx], agev[lastpass][imx], nlstate, imx, mint[lastpass][imx],anint[lastpass][imx], dateprev1, dateprev2, firstpass, lastpass);
                   5718:     */
1.58      lievre   5719: 
1.98      brouard  5720:     if (mobilav!=0) {
                   5721:       mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
                   5722:       if (movingaverage(probs, bage, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
                   5723:        fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
                   5724:        printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
                   5725:       }
1.54      brouard  5726:     }
1.53      brouard  5727: 
1.98      brouard  5728:     for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
                   5729:       for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
                   5730:        k=k+1; 
                   5731:        fprintf(ficrest,"\n#****** ");
                   5732:        for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
                   5733:          fprintf(ficrest,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
                   5734:        fprintf(ficrest,"******\n");
                   5735: 
                   5736:        fprintf(ficreseij,"\n#****** ");
1.117     brouard  5737:        fprintf(ficresstdeij,"\n#****** ");
                   5738:        fprintf(ficrescveij,"\n#****** ");
                   5739:        for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
1.98      brouard  5740:          fprintf(ficreseij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
1.117     brouard  5741:          fprintf(ficresstdeij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
                   5742:          fprintf(ficrescveij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
                   5743:        }
1.98      brouard  5744:        fprintf(ficreseij,"******\n");
1.117     brouard  5745:        fprintf(ficresstdeij,"******\n");
                   5746:        fprintf(ficrescveij,"******\n");
1.98      brouard  5747: 
                   5748:        fprintf(ficresvij,"\n#****** ");
                   5749:        for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
                   5750:          fprintf(ficresvij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
                   5751:        fprintf(ficresvij,"******\n");
                   5752: 
                   5753:        eij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
                   5754:        oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
1.117     brouard  5755:        evsij(fileres, eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k, estepm, strstart);  
                   5756:        cvevsij(fileres, eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k, estepm, delti, matcov, strstart);  
1.53      brouard  5757:  
1.98      brouard  5758:        vareij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
                   5759:        oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
1.105     lievre   5760:        varevsij(optionfilefiname, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k, estepm, cptcov,cptcod,0, mobilav, strstart);
1.98      brouard  5761:        if(popbased==1){
1.105     lievre   5762:          varevsij(optionfilefiname, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k, estepm, cptcov,cptcod,popbased,mobilav, strstart);
1.98      brouard  5763:        }
1.53      brouard  5764: 
1.117     brouard  5765:        pstamp(ficrest);
1.118     brouard  5766:        fprintf(ficrest,"# Total life expectancy with std error and decomposition into time to be expected in each health state\n# Age ( e.. (std) ");
1.98      brouard  5767:        for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrest,"e.%d (std) ",i);
                   5768:        fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
                   5769: 
                   5770:        epj=vector(1,nlstate+1);
                   5771:        for(age=bage; age <=fage ;age++){
                   5772:          prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);
                   5773:          if (popbased==1) {
                   5774:            if(mobilav ==0){
                   5775:              for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                   5776:                prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][k];
                   5777:            }else{ /* mobilav */ 
                   5778:              for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
                   5779:                prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][k];
                   5780:            }
1.53      brouard  5781:          }
                   5782:        
1.98      brouard  5783:          fprintf(ficrest," %4.0f",age);
                   5784:          for(j=1, epj[nlstate+1]=0.;j <=nlstate;j++){
                   5785:            for(i=1, epj[j]=0.;i <=nlstate;i++) {
                   5786:              epj[j] += prlim[i][i]*eij[i][j][(int)age];
                   5787:              /*  printf("%lf %lf ", prlim[i][i] ,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
                   5788:            }
                   5789:            epj[nlstate+1] +=epj[j];
1.53      brouard  5790:          }
                   5791: 
1.98      brouard  5792:          for(i=1, vepp=0.;i <=nlstate;i++)
                   5793:            for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++)
                   5794:              vepp += vareij[i][j][(int)age];
                   5795:          fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[nlstate+1],sqrt(vepp));
                   5796:          for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++){
                   5797:            fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[j],sqrt(vareij[j][j][(int)age]));
                   5798:          }
                   5799:          fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
1.53      brouard  5800:        }
1.98      brouard  5801:        free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
                   5802:        free_ma3x(vareij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
                   5803:        free_vector(epj,1,nlstate+1);
                   5804:       }
                   5805:     }
                   5806:     free_vector(weight,1,n);
                   5807:     free_imatrix(Tvard,1,15,1,2);
                   5808:     free_imatrix(s,1,maxwav+1,1,n);
                   5809:     free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n); 
                   5810:     free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);
                   5811:     free_ivector(cod,1,n);
                   5812:     free_ivector(tab,1,NCOVMAX);
                   5813:     fclose(ficreseij);
1.117     brouard  5814:     fclose(ficresstdeij);
                   5815:     fclose(ficrescveij);
1.98      brouard  5816:     fclose(ficresvij);
                   5817:     fclose(ficrest);
                   5818:     fclose(ficpar);
                   5819:   
1.117     brouard  5820:     /*------- Variance of period (stable) prevalence------*/   
1.98      brouard  5821: 
                   5822:     strcpy(fileresvpl,"vpl");
                   5823:     strcat(fileresvpl,fileres);
                   5824:     if((ficresvpl=fopen(fileresvpl,"w"))==NULL) {
1.117     brouard  5825:       printf("Problem with variance of period (stable) prevalence  resultfile: %s\n", fileresvpl);
1.98      brouard  5826:       exit(0);
                   5827:     }
1.117     brouard  5828:     printf("Computing Variance-covariance of period (stable) prevalence: file '%s' \n", fileresvpl);
1.98      brouard  5829: 
                   5830:     for(cptcov=1,k=0;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
                   5831:       for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
                   5832:        k=k+1;
                   5833:        fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n#****** ");
                   5834:        for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
                   5835:          fprintf(ficresvpl,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
                   5836:        fprintf(ficresvpl,"******\n");
                   5837:       
                   5838:        varpl=matrix(1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
                   5839:        oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
1.105     lievre   5840:        varprevlim(fileres, varpl, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k,strstart);
1.98      brouard  5841:        free_matrix(varpl,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
1.53      brouard  5842:       }
1.98      brouard  5843:     }
1.53      brouard  5844: 
1.98      brouard  5845:     fclose(ficresvpl);
1.53      brouard  5846: 
1.98      brouard  5847:     /*---------- End : free ----------------*/
                   5848:     if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
                   5849:     free_ma3x(probs,1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
                   5850: 
                   5851:   }  /* mle==-3 arrives here for freeing */
1.113     brouard  5852:   free_matrix(prlim,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
1.98      brouard  5853:     free_matrix(pmmij,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
                   5854:     free_matrix(oldms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
                   5855:     free_matrix(newms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
                   5856:     free_matrix(savms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
                   5857:     free_matrix(covar,0,NCOVMAX,1,n);
                   5858:     free_matrix(matcov,1,npar,1,npar);
                   5859:     /*free_vector(delti,1,npar);*/
                   5860:     free_ma3x(delti3,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel); 
                   5861:     free_matrix(agev,1,maxwav,1,imx);
                   5862:     free_ma3x(param,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
                   5863: 
                   5864:     free_ivector(ncodemax,1,8);
                   5865:     free_ivector(Tvar,1,15);
                   5866:     free_ivector(Tprod,1,15);
                   5867:     free_ivector(Tvaraff,1,15);
                   5868:     free_ivector(Tage,1,15);
                   5869:     free_ivector(Tcode,1,100);
1.74      brouard  5870: 
1.113     brouard  5871:     free_imatrix(nbcode,0,NCOVMAX,0,NCOVMAX);
                   5872:     free_imatrix(codtab,1,100,1,10);
1.88      brouard  5873:   fflush(fichtm);
                   5874:   fflush(ficgp);
1.53      brouard  5875:   
                   5876: 
1.91      brouard  5877:   if((nberr >0) || (nbwarn>0)){
1.95      brouard  5878:     printf("End of Imach with %d errors and/or %d warnings\n",nberr,nbwarn);
1.91      brouard  5879:     fprintf(ficlog,"End of Imach with %d errors and/or warnings %d\n",nberr,nbwarn);
1.53      brouard  5880:   }else{
1.91      brouard  5881:     printf("End of Imach\n");
                   5882:     fprintf(ficlog,"End of Imach\n");
1.53      brouard  5883:   }
                   5884:   printf("See log file on %s\n",filelog);
                   5885:   /*  gettimeofday(&end_time, (struct timezone*)0);*/  /* after time */
1.85      brouard  5886:   (void) gettimeofday(&end_time,&tzp);
                   5887:   tm = *localtime(&end_time.tv_sec);
                   5888:   tmg = *gmtime(&end_time.tv_sec);
1.88      brouard  5889:   strcpy(strtend,asctime(&tm));
1.105     lievre   5890:   printf("Local time at start %s\nLocal time at end   %s",strstart, strtend); 
1.94      brouard  5891:   fprintf(ficlog,"Local time at start %s\nLocal time at end   %s\n",strstart, strtend); 
1.91      brouard  5892:   printf("Total time used %s\n", asc_diff_time(end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec,tmpout));
1.85      brouard  5893: 
1.91      brouard  5894:   printf("Total time was %d Sec.\n", end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec);
                   5895:   fprintf(ficlog,"Total time used %s\n", asc_diff_time(end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec,tmpout));
                   5896:   fprintf(ficlog,"Total time was %d Sec.\n", end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec);
1.85      brouard  5897:   /*  printf("Total time was %d uSec.\n", total_usecs);*/
1.87      brouard  5898: /*   if(fileappend(fichtm,optionfilehtm)){ */
1.88      brouard  5899:   fprintf(fichtm,"<br>Local time at start %s<br>Local time at end   %s<br>",strstart, strtend);
1.87      brouard  5900:   fclose(fichtm);
1.91      brouard  5901:   fclose(fichtmcov);
1.88      brouard  5902:   fclose(ficgp);
1.91      brouard  5903:   fclose(ficlog);
1.53      brouard  5904:   /*------ End -----------*/
                   5905: 
1.119     brouard  5906: 
                   5907:    printf("Before Current directory %s!\n",pathcd);
                   5908:    if(chdir(pathcd) != 0)
                   5909:     printf("Can't move to directory %s!\n",path);
                   5910:   if(getcwd(pathcd,MAXLINE) > 0)
                   5911:     printf("Current directory %s!\n",pathcd);
1.107     brouard  5912:   /*strcat(plotcmd,CHARSEPARATOR);*/
1.111     brouard  5913:   sprintf(plotcmd,"gnuplot");
1.107     brouard  5914: #ifndef UNIX
1.112     brouard  5915:   sprintf(plotcmd,"\"%sgnuplot.exe\"",pathimach);
1.107     brouard  5916: #endif
1.111     brouard  5917:   if(!stat(plotcmd,&info)){
1.107     brouard  5918:     printf("Error gnuplot program not found: %s\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
1.111     brouard  5919:     if(!stat(getenv("GNUPLOTBIN"),&info)){
                   5920:       printf("Error gnuplot program not found: %s Environment GNUPLOTBIN not set.\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
                   5921:     }else
                   5922:       strcpy(pplotcmd,plotcmd);
                   5923: #ifdef UNIX
                   5924:     strcpy(plotcmd,GNUPLOTPROGRAM);
                   5925:     if(!stat(plotcmd,&info)){
                   5926:       printf("Error gnuplot program not found: %s\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
                   5927:     }else
                   5928:       strcpy(pplotcmd,plotcmd);
1.108     lievre   5929: #endif
1.111     brouard  5930:   }else
                   5931:     strcpy(pplotcmd,plotcmd);
                   5932:   
                   5933:   sprintf(plotcmd,"%s %s",pplotcmd, optionfilegnuplot);
                   5934:   printf("Starting graphs with: %s\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
1.107     brouard  5935: 
1.91      brouard  5936:   if((outcmd=system(plotcmd)) != 0){
1.108     lievre   5937:     printf("\n Problem with gnuplot\n");
1.91      brouard  5938:   }
1.75      brouard  5939:   printf(" Wait...");
1.53      brouard  5940:   while (z[0] != 'q') {
                   5941:     /* chdir(path); */
1.91      brouard  5942:     printf("\nType e to edit output files, g to graph again and q for exiting: ");
1.53      brouard  5943:     scanf("%s",z);
1.91      brouard  5944: /*     if (z[0] == 'c') system("./imach"); */
1.99      brouard  5945:     if (z[0] == 'e') {
                   5946:       printf("Starting browser with: %s",optionfilehtm);fflush(stdout);
                   5947:       system(optionfilehtm);
                   5948:     }
1.53      brouard  5949:     else if (z[0] == 'g') system(plotcmd);
                   5950:     else if (z[0] == 'q') exit(0);
                   5951:   }
1.91      brouard  5952:   end:
                   5953:   while (z[0] != 'q') {
                   5954:     printf("\nType  q for exiting: ");
                   5955:     scanf("%s",z);
                   5956:   }
1.53      brouard  5957: }
1.88      brouard  5958: 
1.53      brouard  5959: 
                   5960: 

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