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version 1.6, 2002/03/06 18:56:09
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version 1.7, 2002/03/10 15:54:47
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<!-- $Id$ --!>
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Line 29 color="#00006A">INED</font></a><font col
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Line 30 color="#00006A">INED</font></a><font col
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| href="http://euroreves.ined.fr"><font color="#00006A">EUROREVES</font></a></h3>
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href="http://euroreves.ined.fr"><font color="#00006A">EUROREVES</font></a></h3>
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| <p align="center"><font color="#00006A" size="4"><strong>Version
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<p align="center"><font color="#00006A" size="4"><strong>Version
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| 0.7, February 2002</strong></font></p>
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0.71a, March 2002</strong></font></p>
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| <hr size="3" color="#EC5E5E">
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<hr size="3" color="#EC5E5E">
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Line 58 color="#00006A">) </font></h4>
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Line 59 color="#00006A">) </font></h4>
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| <ul>
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<ul>
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| <li><a href="#intro">Introduction</a> </li>
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<li><a href="#intro">Introduction</a> </li>
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| <li>The detailed statistical model (<a href="docmath.pdf">PDF
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| version</a>),(<a href="docmath.ps">ps version</a>) </li>
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| <li><a href="#data">On what kind of data can it be used?</a></li>
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<li><a href="#data">On what kind of data can it be used?</a></li>
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| <li><a href="#datafile">The data file</a> </li>
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<li><a href="#datafile">The data file</a> </li>
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| <li><a href="#biaspar">The parameter file</a> </li>
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<li><a href="#biaspar">The parameter file</a> </li>
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Line 80 monitor. In low mortality countries, the
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Line 79 monitor. In low mortality countries, the
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| mortality declines, the increase in DFLE is not proportionate to
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mortality declines, the increase in DFLE is not proportionate to
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| the increase in total Life expectancy. This case is called the <em>Expansion
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the increase in total Life expectancy. This case is called the <em>Expansion
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| of morbidity</em>. Most of the data collected today, in
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of morbidity</em>. Most of the data collected today, in
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| particular by the international <a href="http://euroreves/reves">REVES</a>
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particular by the international <a href="http://www.reves.org">REVES</a>
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| network on Health expectancy, and most HE indices based on these
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network on Health expectancy, and most HE indices based on these
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| data, are <em>cross-sectional</em>. It means that the information
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data, are <em>cross-sectional</em>. It means that the information
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| collected comes from a single cross-sectional survey: people from
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collected comes from a single cross-sectional survey: people from
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Line 273 weights or covariates, you must fill the
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Line 272 weights or covariates, you must fill the
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| <h2><font color="#00006A">Your first example parameter file</font><a
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<h2><font color="#00006A">Your first example parameter file</font><a
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| href="http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach"></a><a name="uio"></a></h2>
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href="http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach"></a><a name="uio"></a></h2>
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| <h2><a name="biaspar"></a>#Imach version 0.7, February 2002,
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<h2><a name="biaspar"></a>#Imach version 0.71a, March 2002,
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| INED-EUROREVES </h2>
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INED-EUROREVES </h2>
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| <p>This is a comment. Comments start with a '#'.</p>
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<p>This is a comment. Comments start with a '#'.</p>
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Line 349 line</font></a></h4>
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Line 348 line</font></a></h4>
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| <h4><font color="#FF0000">Covariates</font></h4>
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<h4><font color="#FF0000">Covariates</font></h4>
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| <p>Intercept and age are systematically included in the model.
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<p>Intercept and age are systematically included in the model.
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| Additional covariates can be included with the command </p>
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Additional covariates (actually two) can be included with the command: </p>
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| <pre>model=<em>list of covariates</em></pre>
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<pre>model=<em>list of covariates</em></pre>
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Line 398 aij bij</b> </p>
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Line 397 aij bij</b> </p>
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| 23 -6.234642 0.022315 </pre>
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23 -6.234642 0.022315 </pre>
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| </blockquote>
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</blockquote>
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| <p>or, to simplify: </p>
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<p>or, to simplify (in most of cases it converges but there is no warranty!): </p>
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| <blockquote>
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<blockquote>
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| <pre>12 0.0 0.0
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<pre>12 0.0 0.0
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Line 485 prevalences and health expectancies</fon
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Line 484 prevalences and health expectancies</fon
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| to calculated stationary prevalence, transitions probabilities
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to calculated stationary prevalence, transitions probabilities
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| and life expectancies at any age. Choice of age range is useful
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and life expectancies at any age. Choice of age range is useful
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| for extrapolation. In our data file, ages varies from age 70 to
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for extrapolation. In our data file, ages varies from age 70 to
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| 102. Setting bage=50 and fage=100, makes the program computing
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102. It is possible to get extrapolated stationary
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| life expectancy from age bage to age fage. As we use a model, we
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| can compute life expectancy on a wider age range than the age
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| range from the data. But the model can be rather wrong on big
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| intervals.</p>
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| <p>Similarly, it is possible to get extrapolated stationary
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| prevalence by age ranging from agemin to agemax. </p>
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prevalence by age ranging from agemin to agemax. </p>
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<p>Setting bage=50 (begin age) and fage=100 (final age), makes the program computing
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life expectancy from age 'bage' to age 'fage'. As we use a model, we
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can interessingly compute life expectancy on a wider age range than the age
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range from the data. But the model can be rather wrong on much larger
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intervals. Program is limited to around 120 for upper age!</p>
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| <ul>
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<ul>
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| <li><b>agemin=</b> Minimum age for calculation of the
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<li><b>agemin=</b> Minimum age for calculation of the
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| stationary prevalence </li>
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stationary prevalence </li>
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Line 527 expectancies</font></h4>
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Line 527 expectancies</font></h4>
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| <pre>pop_based=0</pre>
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<pre>pop_based=0</pre>
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| <p>The user has the possibility to choose between
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<p>The program computes status-based health expectancies, i.e health
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| population-based or status-based health expectancies. If
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expectancies which depends on your initial health state. If you are
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| pop_based=0 then status-based health expectancies are computed
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healthy your healthy life expectancy (e11) is higher than if you were
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| and if pop_based=1, the programme computes population-based
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disabled (e21, with e11 > e21).<br>
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| health expectancies. Health expectancies are weighted averages of
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To compute a healthy life expectancy independant of the initial status
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| health expectancies respective of the initial state. For a
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we have to weight e11 and e21 according to the probability to be in
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| status-based index, the weights are the cross-sectional
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each state at initial age or, with other word, according to the
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| prevalences observed between two dates, as <a href="#Computing">previously
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proportion of people in each state.<br>
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| explained</a>, whereas for a population-based index, the weights
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| are the stationary prevalences.</p>
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We prefer computing a 'pure' period healthy life expectancy based only
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on the transtion forces. Then the weights are simply the stationnary
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prevalences or 'implied' prevalences at the initial age.<br>
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Some other people would like to use the cross-sectional prevalences
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(the "Sullivan prevalences") observed at the initial age during a
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period of time <a href="#Computing">defined just above</a>.
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<ul>
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<li><strong>popbased= 0 </strong> Health expectancies are computed
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at each age from stationary prevalences 'expected' at this initial age.</li>
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<li><strong>popbased= 1 </strong> Health expectancies are computed
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at each age from cross-sectional 'observed' prevalence at this
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initial age. As all the population is not observed at the same exact date we
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define a short period were the observed prevalence is computed.</li>
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</ul>
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</p>
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| <h4><font color="#FF0000">Prevalence forecasting </font></h4>
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<h4><font color="#FF0000">Prevalence forecasting ( Experimental)</font></h4>
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| <pre>starting-proj-date=1/1/1989 final-proj-date=1/1/1992 mov_average=0 </pre>
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<pre>starting-proj-date=1/1/1989 final-proj-date=1/1/1992 mov_average=0 </pre>
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| <p>Prevalence and population projections are only available if
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<p>Prevalence and population projections are only available if the
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| the interpolation unit is a month, i.e. stepm=1. The programme
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interpolation unit is a month, i.e. stepm=1 and if there are no
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| estimates the prevalence in each state at a precise date
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covariate. The programme estimates the prevalence in each state at a
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| expressed in day/month/year. The programme computes one
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precise date expressed in day/month/year. The programme computes one
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| forecasted prevalence a year from a starting date (1 january of
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forecasted prevalence a year from a starting date (1 january of 1989
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| 1989 in this example) to a final date (1 january 1992). The
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in this example) to a final date (1 january 1992). The statement
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| statement mov_average allows to compute smoothed forecasted
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mov_average allows to compute smoothed forecasted prevalences with a
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| prevalences with a five-age moving average centered at the
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five-age moving average centered at the mid-age of the five-age
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| mid-age of the five-age period. </p>
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period. </p>
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| <ul>
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<ul>
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| <li><strong>starting-proj-date</strong>= starting date
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<li><strong>starting-proj-date</strong>= starting date
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Line 569 forecasting </font></h4>
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Line 586 forecasting </font></h4>
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| <pre>popforecast=0 popfile=pyram.txt popfiledate=1/1/1989 last-popfiledate=1/1/1992</pre>
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<pre>popforecast=0 popfile=pyram.txt popfiledate=1/1/1989 last-popfiledate=1/1/1992</pre>
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| <p>This command is available if the interpolation unit is a
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<p>This command is available if the interpolation unit is a
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| month, i.e. stepm=1 and if popforecast=1. From a data file </p>
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month, i.e. stepm=1 and if popforecast=1. From a data file
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including age and number of persons alive at the precise date
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| <p>Structure of the data file <a href="pyram.txt"><b>pyram.txt</b></a><b>
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‘popfiledate’, you can forecast the number of persons
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| : </b>age numbers</p>
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in each state until date ‘last-popfiledate’. In this
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example, the popfile <a href="pyram.txt"><b>pyram.txt</b></a>
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| <p> </p>
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includes real data which are the Japanese population in 1989.</p>
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<ul type="disc">
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<li class="MsoNormal"
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style="TEXT-ALIGN: justify; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-list: l10 level1 lfo36; tab-stops: list 36.0pt"><b>popforecast=
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0 </b>Option for population forecasting. If
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popforecast=1, the programme does the forecasting<b>.</b></li>
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<li class="MsoNormal"
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style="TEXT-ALIGN: justify; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-list: l10 level1 lfo36; tab-stops: list 36.0pt"><b>popfile=
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</b>name of the population file</li>
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<li class="MsoNormal"
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style="TEXT-ALIGN: justify; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-list: l10 level1 lfo36; tab-stops: list 36.0pt"><b>popfiledate=</b>
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date of the population population</li>
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<li class="MsoNormal"
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style="TEXT-ALIGN: justify; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-list: l10 level1 lfo36; tab-stops: list 36.0pt"><b>last-popfiledate</b>=
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date of the last population projection </li>
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</ul>
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| <hr>
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<hr>
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Line 775 href="erbiaspar.txt"><b>erbiaspar.txt</b
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Line 808 href="erbiaspar.txt"><b>erbiaspar.txt</b
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| 72 9.9667 3.0502 4.8663 6.1025
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72 9.9667 3.0502 4.8663 6.1025
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| 73 9.5077 3.0524 4.5044 6.0401 </pre>
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73 9.5077 3.0524 4.5044 6.0401 </pre>
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| <pre>For example 70 10.9226 3.0401 5.6488 6.2122 means:
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<pre>For example 70 10.4227 3.0402 5.6488 5.7123 means:
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| e11=10.9226 e12=3.0401 e21=5.6488 e22=6.2122</pre>
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e11=10.4227 e12=3.0402 e21=5.6488 e22=5.7123</pre>
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| <pre><img src="expbiaspar21.gif" width="400" height="300"><img
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<pre><img src="expbiaspar21.gif" width="400" height="300"><img
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| src="expbiaspar11.gif" width="400" height="300"></pre>
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src="expbiaspar11.gif" width="400" height="300"></pre>
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| <p>For example, life expectancy of a healthy individual at age 70
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<p>For example, life expectancy of a healthy individual at age 70
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| is 10.92 in the healthy state and 3.04 in the disability state
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is 10.42 in the healthy state and 3.04 in the disability state
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| (=13.96 years). If he was disable at age 70, his life expectancy
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(=13.46 years). If he was disable at age 70, his life expectancy
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| will be shorter, 5.64 in the healthy state and 6.21 in the
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will be shorter, 5.64 in the healthy state and 5.71 in the
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| disability state (=11.85 years). The total life expectancy is a
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disability state (=11.35 years). The total life expectancy is a
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| weighted mean of both, 13.96 and 11.85; weight is the proportion
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weighted mean of both, 13.46 and 11.35; weight is the proportion
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| of people disabled at age 70. In order to get a pure period index
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of people disabled at age 70. In order to get a pure period index
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| (i.e. based only on incidences) we use the <a
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(i.e. based only on incidences) we use the <a
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| href="#Stationary prevalence in each state">computed or
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href="#Stationary prevalence in each state">computed or
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Line 813 href="trbiaspar.txt"><font face="Courier
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Line 846 href="trbiaspar.txt"><font face="Courier
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| <pre>#Total LEs with variances: e.. (std) e.1 (std) e.2 (std) </pre>
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<pre>#Total LEs with variances: e.. (std) e.1 (std) e.2 (std) </pre>
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| <pre>70 13.76 (0.22) 10.40 (0.20) 3.35 (0.14) </pre>
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<pre>70 13.26 (0.22) 9.95 (0.20) 3.30 (0.14) </pre>
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| <p>Thus, at age 70 the total life expectancy, e..=13.76years is
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<p>Thus, at age 70 the total life expectancy, e..=13.26 years is
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| the weighted mean of e1.=13.96 and e2.=11.85 by the stationary
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the weighted mean of e1.=13.46 and e2.=11.35 by the stationary
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| prevalence at age 70 which are 0.90134 in state 1 and 0.09866 in
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prevalence at age 70 which are 0.90134 in state 1 and 0.09866 in
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| state 2, respectively (the sum is equal to one). e.1=10.40 is the
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state 2, respectively (the sum is equal to one). e.1=9.95 is the
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| Disability-free life expectancy at age 70 (it is again a weighted
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Disability-free life expectancy at age 70 (it is again a weighted
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| mean of e11 and e21). e.2=3.35 is also the life expectancy at age
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mean of e11 and e21). e.2=3.30 is also the life expectancy at age
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| 70 to be spent in the disability state.</p>
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70 to be spent in the disability state.</p>
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| <h5><font color="#EC5E5E" size="3"><b>-Total life expectancy by
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<h5><font color="#EC5E5E" size="3"><b>-Total life expectancy by
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Line 921 program while saving the old output file
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Line 954 program while saving the old output file
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| <h5><font color="#EC5E5E" size="3"><b>- Prevalence forecasting</b></font><b>:
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<h5><font color="#EC5E5E" size="3"><b>- Prevalence forecasting</b></font><b>:
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| </b><a href="frbiaspar.txt"><b>frbiaspar.txt</b></a></h5>
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</b><a href="frbiaspar.txt"><b>frbiaspar.txt</b></a></h5>
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| <p>On a d'abord estimé la date moyenne des interviaew. ie
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<p
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| 13/9/1995. This file contains </p>
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style="TEXT-ALIGN: justify; tab-stops: 45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt">First,
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we have estimated the observed prevalence between 1/1/1984 and
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| <p>Example, at date 1/1/1989 : </p>
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1/6/1988. The mean date of interview (weighed average of the
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interviews performed between1/1/1984 and 1/6/1988) is estimated
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| <p>73 0.807 0.078 0.115 </p>
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to be 13/9/1985, as written on the top on the file. Then we
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forecast the probability to be in each state. </p>
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| <p>This means that at age 73, the probability for a person age 70
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| at 13/9/1989 to be in state 1 is 0.807, in state 2 is 0.078 and
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<p
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| to die is 0.115 at 1/1/1989.</p>
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style="TEXT-ALIGN: justify; tab-stops: 45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt">Example,
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at date 1/1/1989 : </p>
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<pre class="MsoNormal"># StartingAge FinalAge P.1 P.2 P.3
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# Forecasting at date 1/1/1989
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73 0.807 0.078 0.115</pre>
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<p
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style="TEXT-ALIGN: justify; tab-stops: 45.8pt 91.6pt 137.4pt 183.2pt 229.0pt 274.8pt 320.6pt 366.4pt 412.2pt 458.0pt 503.8pt 549.6pt 595.4pt 641.2pt 687.0pt 732.8pt">Since
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the minimum age is 70 on the 13/9/1985, the youngest forecasted
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age is 73. This means that at age a person aged 70 at 13/9/1989
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has a probability to enter state1 of 0.807 at age 73 on 1/1/1989.
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Similarly, the probability to be in state 2 is 0.078 and the
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probability to die is 0.115. Then, on the 1/1/1989, the
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prevalence of disability at age 73 is estimated to be 0.088.</p>
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| <h5><font color="#EC5E5E" size="3"><b>- Population forecasting</b></font><b>:
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<h5><font color="#EC5E5E" size="3"><b>- Population forecasting</b></font><b>:
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| </b><a href="poprbiaspar.txt"><b>poprbiaspar.txt</b></a></h5>
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</b><a href="poprbiaspar.txt"><b>poprbiaspar.txt</b></a></h5>
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Line 946 to die is 0.115 at 1/1/1989.</p>
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Line 993 to die is 0.115 at 1/1/1989.</p>
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| 75 487781.02 91367.97 121915.51
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75 487781.02 91367.97 121915.51
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| 74 512892.07 85003.47 117282.76 </pre>
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74 512892.07 85003.47 117282.76 </pre>
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<p>From the population file, we estimate the number of people in
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each state. At age 73, 645857 persons are in state 1 and 69320
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are in state 2. One year latter, 512892 are still in state 1,
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85003 are in state 2 and 117282 died before 1/1/1990.</p>
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| <hr>
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<hr>
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| <h2><a name="example" </a><font color="#00006A">Trying an example</font></a></h2>
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<h2><a name="example"> </a><font color="#00006A">Trying an example</font></a></h2>
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| <p>Since you know how to run the program, it is time to test it
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<p>Since you know how to run the program, it is time to test it
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| on your own computer. Try for example on a parameter file named <a
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on your own computer. Try for example on a parameter file named <a
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Line 965 question:'<strong>Enter the parameter fi
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Line 1017 question:'<strong>Enter the parameter fi
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| <table border="1">
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<table border="1">
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| <tr>
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<tr>
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| <td width="100%"><strong>IMACH, Version 0.7</strong><p><strong>Enter
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<td width="100%"><strong>IMACH, Version 0.71</strong><p><strong>Enter
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| the parameter file name: ..\mytry\imachpar.txt</strong></p>
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the parameter file name: ..\mytry\imachpar.txt</strong></p>
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| </td>
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</td>
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| </tr>
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</tr>
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Line 1138 simple justification (name, email, insti
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Line 1190 simple justification (name, email, insti
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| href="mailto:brouard@ined.fr">mailto:brouard@ined.fr</a> and <a
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href="mailto:brouard@ined.fr">mailto:brouard@ined.fr</a> and <a
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| href="mailto:lievre@ined.fr">mailto:lievre@ined.fr</a> .</p>
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href="mailto:lievre@ined.fr">mailto:lievre@ined.fr</a> .</p>
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|
|
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| <p>Latest version (0.7 of February 2002) can be accessed at <a
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<p>Latest version (0.71a of March 2002) can be accessed at <a
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| href="http://euroeves.ined.fr/imach">http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach</a><br>
|
href="http://euroeves.ined.fr/imach">http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach</a><br>
|
| </p>
|
</p>
|
| </body>
|
</body>
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