--- imach096d/doc/imach.htm 2001/05/09 14:09:37 1.3 +++ imach096d/doc/imach.htm 2002/03/06 18:56:09 1.6 @@ -29,7 +29,7 @@ color="#00006A">INEDEUROREVES

Version -64b, May 2001

+0.7, February 2002

@@ -181,7 +181,7 @@ according to parameters: selection of a absorbing and non-absorbing states, number of waves taken in account (the user inputs the first and the last interview), a tolerance level for the maximization function, the periodicity of -the transitions (we can compute annual, quaterly or monthly +the transitions (we can compute annual, quarterly or monthly transitions), covariates in the model. It works on Windows or on Unix.

@@ -273,7 +273,7 @@ weights or covariates, you must fill the

Your first example parameter file

-

#Imach version 0.64b, May 2001, +

#Imach version 0.7, February 2002, INED-EUROREVES

This is a comment. Comments start with a '#'.

@@ -387,9 +387,8 @@ initials values, a12, b12, a13, b13, a21 start with zeros as in this example, but if you have a more precise set (for example from an earlier run) you can enter it and it will speed up them
-Each of the four lines starts with indices "ij":
-
-ij aij bij

+Each of the four lines starts with indices "ij": ij +aij bij 

# Guess values of aij and bij in log (pij/pii) = aij + bij * age
@@ -411,7 +410,7 @@ Each of the four lines starts with indic
 
Guess values for computing variances

 
 
This is an output if mle=1. But it can be
-used as an input to get the vairous output data files (Health
+used as an input to get the various output data files (Health
 expectancies, stationary prevalence etc.) and figures without
 rerunning the rather long maximisation phase (mle=0). 

 
@@ -442,7 +441,7 @@ consists in indices "ij" follo
 
Covariance matrix of parameters

 
 
This is an output if mle=1. But it can be
-used as an input to get the vairous output data files (Health
+used as an input to get the various output data files (Health
 expectancies, stationary prevalence etc.) and figures without
 rerunning the rather long maximisation phase (mle=0). 

 
@@ -477,14 +476,14 @@ covariances between aij and bij: 

         
 
 
-
last
-uncommented line

+
Age range for calculation of stationary
+prevalences and health expectancies

 
 
agemin=70 agemax=100 bage=50 fage=100

 
 
Once we obtained the estimated parameters, the program is able
 to calculated stationary prevalence, transitions probabilities
-and life expectancies at any age. Choice of age ranges is useful
+and life expectancies at any age. Choice of age range is useful
 for extrapolation. In our data file, ages varies from age 70 to
 102. Setting bage=50 and fage=100, makes the program computing
 life expectancy from age bage to age fage. As we use a model, we
@@ -493,7 +492,7 @@ range from the data. But the model can b
 intervals.

 
 
Similarly, it is possible to get extrapolated stationary
-prevalence by age raning from agemin to agemax. 

+prevalence by age ranging from agemin to agemax. 

 
 
 
+
Computing the observed prevalence

+
+
begin-prev-date=1/1/1984 end-prev-date=1/6/1988 

+
+
Statements 'begin-prev-date' and 'end-prev-date' allow to
+select the period in which we calculate the observed prevalences
+in each state. In this example, the prevalences are calculated on
+data survey collected between 1 january 1984 and 1 june 1988. 

+
+
+
+
Population- or status-based health
+expectancies

+
+
pop_based=0

+
+
The user has the possibility to choose between
+population-based or status-based health expectancies. If
+pop_based=0 then status-based health expectancies are computed
+and if pop_based=1, the programme computes population-based
+health expectancies. Health expectancies are weighted averages of
+health expectancies respective of the initial state. For a
+status-based index, the weights are the cross-sectional
+prevalences observed between two dates, as previously
+explained, whereas for a population-based index, the weights
+are the stationary prevalences.

+
+
Prevalence forecasting 

+
+
starting-proj-date=1/1/1989 final-proj-date=1/1/1992 mov_average=0 

+
+
Prevalence and population projections are only available if
+the interpolation unit is a month, i.e. stepm=1. The programme
+estimates the prevalence in each state at a precise date
+expressed in day/month/year. The programme computes one
+forecasted prevalence a year from a starting date (1 january of
+1989 in this example) to a final date (1 january 1992). The
+statement mov_average allows to compute smoothed forecasted
+prevalences with a five-age moving average centered at the
+mid-age of the five-age period. 

+
+
+
+
Last uncommented line : Population
+forecasting 

+
+
popforecast=0 popfile=pyram.txt popfiledate=1/1/1989 last-popfiledate=1/1/1992

+
+
This command is available if the interpolation unit is a
+month, i.e. stepm=1 and if popforecast=1. From a data file 

+
+
Structure of the data file pyram.txt
+: age numbers

+
+
 

+
 

 
 
Running Imach
 with this example

 
-
We assume that you entered your 1st_example
+
We assume that you entered your 1st_example
 parameter file as explained above. To
 run the program you should click on the imach.exe icon and enter
 the name of the parameter file which is for example  
 
Once the optimization is finished, some graphics can be made
 with a grapher. We use Gnuplot which is an interactive plotting
 program copyrighted but freely distributed. A gnuplot reference
-manual is available here. 

+manual is available here. 

 When the running is finished, the user should enter a caracter
 for plotting and output editing. 

 
@@ -848,6 +918,34 @@ file: - Prevalence forecasting:
+frbiaspar.txt
+
+
On a d'abord estimé la date moyenne des interviaew. ie
+13/9/1995. This file contains 

+
+
Example, at date 1/1/1989 : 

+
+
73 0.807 0.078 0.115 

+
+
This means that at age 73, the probability for a person age 70
+at 13/9/1989 to be in state 1 is 0.807, in state 2 is 0.078 and
+to die is 0.115 at 1/1/1989.

+
+
- Population forecasting:
+poprbiaspar.txt

+
+
# Age P.1 P.2 P.3 [Population]
+# Forecasting at date 1/1/1989 
+75 572685.22 83798.08 
+74 621296.51 79767.99 
+73 645857.70 69320.60 

+
+
# Forecasting at date 1/1/19909 
+76 442986.68 92721.14 120775.48
+75 487781.02 91367.97 121915.51
+74 512892.07 85003.47 117282.76 

+
 

 
 
Trying an example

@@ -867,7 +965,7 @@ question:'Enter the parameter fi
 
 
-        
@@ -1006,8 +1104,11 @@ edit the master file mypar.htm. <
         - Health expectancies with their variances: trmypar.txt

         - Standard deviation of stationary prevalence: vplrmypar.txt

+        href="..\mytry\vplrmypar.txt">vplrmypar.txt

+        - Prevalences forecasting: frmypar.txt

+        - Population forecasting (if popforecast=1): poprmypar.txt
  • Graphs 
    
         
    
@@ -1037,7 +1138,7 @@ simple justification (name, email, insti
 href="mailto:brouard@ined.fr">mailto:brouard@ined.fr and mailto:lievre@ined.fr .
    
 
-
    Latest version (0.64b of may 2001) can be accessed at Latest version (0.7 of February 2002) can be accessed at http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach
    
 
    
 

    • 
     
    IMACH, Version 0.64b
    Enter
+        
    		IMACH, Version 0.7
    Enter
         the parameter file name: ..\mytry\imachpar.txt