--- imach096d/src/imach.c	2002/02/22 18:10:15	1.24
+++ imach096d/src/imach.c	2002/07/24 17:28:25	1.56
@@ -1,3189 +1,4158 @@
-/* $Id: imach.c,v 1.24 2002/02/22 18:10:15 lievre Exp $
-   Interpolated Markov Chain
-
-  Short summary of the programme:
-  
-  This program computes Healthy Life Expectancies from
-  cross-longitudinal data. Cross-longitudinal data consist in: -1- a
-  first survey ("cross") where individuals from different ages are
-  interviewed on their health status or degree of disability (in the
-  case of a health survey which is our main interest) -2- at least a
-  second wave of interviews ("longitudinal") which measure each change
-  (if any) in individual health status.  Health expectancies are
-  computed from the time spent in each health state according to a
-  model. More health states you consider, more time is necessary to reach the
-  Maximum Likelihood of the parameters involved in the model.  The
-  simplest model is the multinomial logistic model where pij is the
-  probabibility to be observed in state j at the second wave
-  conditional to be observed in state i at the first wave. Therefore
-  the model is: log(pij/pii)= aij + bij*age+ cij*sex + etc , where
-  'age' is age and 'sex' is a covariate. If you want to have a more
-  complex model than "constant and age", you should modify the program
-  where the markup *Covariates have to be included here again* invites
-  you to do it.  More covariates you add, slower the
-  convergence.
-
-  The advantage of this computer programme, compared to a simple
-  multinomial logistic model, is clear when the delay between waves is not
-  identical for each individual. Also, if a individual missed an
-  intermediate interview, the information is lost, but taken into
-  account using an interpolation or extrapolation.  
-
-  hPijx is the probability to be observed in state i at age x+h
-  conditional to the observed state i at age x. The delay 'h' can be
-  split into an exact number (nh*stepm) of unobserved intermediate
-  states. This elementary transition (by month or quarter trimester,
-  semester or year) is model as a multinomial logistic.  The hPx
-  matrix is simply the matrix product of nh*stepm elementary matrices
-  and the contribution of each individual to the likelihood is simply
-  hPijx.
-
-  Also this programme outputs the covariance matrix of the parameters but also
-  of the life expectancies. It also computes the prevalence limits. 
-  
-  Authors: Nicolas Brouard (brouard@ined.fr) and Agnès Lièvre (lievre@ined.fr).
-           Institut national d'études démographiques, Paris.
-  This software have been partly granted by Euro-REVES, a concerted action
-  from the European Union.
-  It is copyrighted identically to a GNU software product, ie programme and
-  software can be distributed freely for non commercial use. Latest version
-  can be accessed at http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach .
-  **********************************************************************/
- 
-#include <math.h>
-#include <stdio.h>
-#include <stdlib.h>
-#include <unistd.h>
-
-#define MAXLINE 256
-#define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "..\\gp37mgw\\wgnuplot"
-#define FILENAMELENGTH 80
-/*#define DEBUG*/
-#define windows
-#define	GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH		-1	/* empty path */
-#define	GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD		-2	/* cannot get cwd */
-
-#define MAXPARM 30 /* Maximum number of parameters for the optimization */
-#define NPARMAX 64 /* (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel */
-
-#define NINTERVMAX 8
-#define NLSTATEMAX 8 /* Maximum number of live states (for func) */
-#define NDEATHMAX 8 /* Maximum number of dead states (for func) */
-#define NCOVMAX 8 /* Maximum number of covariates */
-#define MAXN 20000
-#define YEARM 12. /* Number of months per year */
-#define AGESUP 130
-#define AGEBASE 40
-
-
-int erreur; /* Error number */
-int nvar;
-int cptcovn, cptcovage=0, cptcoveff=0,cptcov;
-int npar=NPARMAX;
-int nlstate=2; /* Number of live states */
-int ndeath=1; /* Number of dead states */
-int ncovmodel, ncov;     /* Total number of covariables including constant a12*1 +b12*x ncovmodel=2 */
-int popbased=0;
-
-int *wav; /* Number of waves for this individuual 0 is possible */
-int maxwav; /* Maxim number of waves */
-int jmin, jmax; /* min, max spacing between 2 waves */
-int mle, weightopt;
-int **mw; /* mw[mi][i] is number of the mi wave for this individual */
-int **dh; /* dh[mi][i] is number of steps between mi,mi+1 for this individual */
-double jmean; /* Mean space between 2 waves */
-double **oldm, **newm, **savm; /* Working pointers to matrices */
-double **oldms, **newms, **savms; /* Fixed working pointers to matrices */
-FILE *fic,*ficpar, *ficparo,*ficres,  *ficrespl, *ficrespij, *ficrest,*ficresf;
-FILE *ficgp, *fichtm,*ficresprob,*ficpop;
-FILE *ficreseij;
-  char filerese[FILENAMELENGTH];
- FILE  *ficresvij;
-  char fileresv[FILENAMELENGTH];
- FILE  *ficresvpl;
-  char fileresvpl[FILENAMELENGTH];
-
-#define NR_END 1
-#define FREE_ARG char*
-#define FTOL 1.0e-10
-
-#define NRANSI 
-#define ITMAX 200 
-
-#define TOL 2.0e-4 
-
-#define CGOLD 0.3819660 
-#define ZEPS 1.0e-10 
-#define SHFT(a,b,c,d) (a)=(b);(b)=(c);(c)=(d); 
-
-#define GOLD 1.618034 
-#define GLIMIT 100.0 
-#define TINY 1.0e-20 
-
-static double maxarg1,maxarg2;
-#define FMAX(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)>(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))
-#define FMIN(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)<(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))
- 
-#define SIGN(a,b) ((b)>0.0 ? fabs(a) : -fabs(a))
-#define rint(a) floor(a+0.5)
-
-static double sqrarg;
-#define SQR(a) ((sqrarg=(a)) == 0.0 ? 0.0 :sqrarg*sqrarg)
-#define SWAP(a,b) {temp=(a);(a)=(b);(b)=temp;} 
-
-int imx; 
-int stepm;
-/* Stepm, step in month: minimum step interpolation*/
-
-int m,nb;
-int *num, firstpass=0, lastpass=4,*cod, *ncodemax, *Tage;
-double **agev,*moisnais, *annais, *moisdc, *andc,**mint, **anint;
-double **pmmij, ***probs, ***mobaverage;
-double dateintmean=0;
-
-double *weight;
-int **s; /* Status */
-double *agedc, **covar, idx;
-int **nbcode, *Tcode, *Tvar, **codtab, **Tvard, *Tprod, cptcovprod, *Tvaraff;
-
-double ftol=FTOL; /* Tolerance for computing Max Likelihood */
-double ftolhess; /* Tolerance for computing hessian */
-
-/**************** split *************************/
-static	int split( char *path, char *dirc, char *name, char *ext, char *finame )
-{
-   char	*s;				/* pointer */
-   int	l1, l2;				/* length counters */
-
-   l1 = strlen( path );			/* length of path */
-   if ( l1 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );
-#ifdef windows
-   s = strrchr( path, '\\' );		/* find last / */
-#else
-   s = strrchr( path, '/' );		/* find last / */
-#endif
-   if ( s == NULL ) {			/* no directory, so use current */
-#if	defined(__bsd__)		/* get current working directory */
-      extern char	*getwd( );
-
-      if ( getwd( dirc ) == NULL ) {
-#else
-      extern char	*getcwd( );
-
-      if ( getcwd( dirc, FILENAME_MAX ) == NULL ) {
-#endif
-         return( GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD );
-      }
-      strcpy( name, path );		/* we've got it */
-   } else {				/* strip direcotry from path */
-      s++;				/* after this, the filename */
-      l2 = strlen( s );			/* length of filename */
-      if ( l2 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );
-      strcpy( name, s );		/* save file name */
-      strncpy( dirc, path, l1 - l2 );	/* now the directory */
-      dirc[l1-l2] = 0;			/* add zero */
-   }
-   l1 = strlen( dirc );			/* length of directory */
-#ifdef windows
-   if ( dirc[l1-1] != '\\' ) { dirc[l1] = '\\'; dirc[l1+1] = 0; }
-#else
-   if ( dirc[l1-1] != '/' ) { dirc[l1] = '/'; dirc[l1+1] = 0; }
-#endif
-   s = strrchr( name, '.' );		/* find last / */
-   s++;
-   strcpy(ext,s);			/* save extension */
-   l1= strlen( name);
-   l2= strlen( s)+1;
-   strncpy( finame, name, l1-l2);
-   finame[l1-l2]= 0;
-   return( 0 );				/* we're done */
-}
-
-
-/******************************************/
-
-void replace(char *s, char*t)
-{
-  int i;
-  int lg=20;
-  i=0;
-  lg=strlen(t);
-  for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {
-    (s[i] = t[i]);
-    if (t[i]== '\\') s[i]='/';
-  }
-}
-
-int nbocc(char *s, char occ)
-{
-  int i,j=0;
-  int lg=20;
-  i=0;
-  lg=strlen(s);
-  for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {
-  if  (s[i] == occ ) j++;
-  }
-  return j;
-}
-
-void cutv(char *u,char *v, char*t, char occ)
-{
-  int i,lg,j,p=0;
-  i=0;
-  for(j=0; j<=strlen(t)-1; j++) {
-    if((t[j]!= occ) && (t[j+1]== occ)) p=j+1;
-  }
-
-  lg=strlen(t);
-  for(j=0; j<p; j++) {
-    (u[j] = t[j]);
-  }
-     u[p]='\0';
-
-   for(j=0; j<= lg; j++) {
-    if (j>=(p+1))(v[j-p-1] = t[j]);
-  }
-}
-
-/********************** nrerror ********************/
-
-void nrerror(char error_text[])
-{
-  fprintf(stderr,"ERREUR ...\n");
-  fprintf(stderr,"%s\n",error_text);
-  exit(1);
-}
-/*********************** vector *******************/
-double *vector(int nl, int nh)
-{
-  double *v;
-  v=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
-  if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in vector");
-  return v-nl+NR_END;
-}
-
-/************************ free vector ******************/
-void free_vector(double*v, int nl, int nh)
-{
-  free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
-}
-
-/************************ivector *******************************/
-int *ivector(long nl,long nh)
-{
-  int *v;
-  v=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));
-  if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");
-  return v-nl+NR_END;
-}
-
-/******************free ivector **************************/
-void free_ivector(int *v, long nl, long nh)
-{
-  free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
-}
-
-/******************* imatrix *******************************/
-int **imatrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch) 
-     /* allocate a int matrix with subscript range m[nrl..nrh][ncl..nch] */ 
-{ 
-  long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1,ncol=nch-ncl+1; 
-  int **m; 
-  
-  /* allocate pointers to rows */ 
-  m=(int **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(int*))); 
-  if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()"); 
-  m += NR_END; 
-  m -= nrl; 
-  
-  
-  /* allocate rows and set pointers to them */ 
-  m[nrl]=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(int))); 
-  if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()"); 
-  m[nrl] += NR_END; 
-  m[nrl] -= ncl; 
-  
-  for(i=nrl+1;i<=nrh;i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol; 
-  
-  /* return pointer to array of pointers to rows */ 
-  return m; 
-} 
-
-/****************** free_imatrix *************************/
-void free_imatrix(m,nrl,nrh,ncl,nch)
-      int **m;
-      long nch,ncl,nrh,nrl; 
-     /* free an int matrix allocated by imatrix() */ 
-{ 
-  free((FREE_ARG) (m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END)); 
-  free((FREE_ARG) (m+nrl-NR_END)); 
-} 
-
-/******************* matrix *******************************/
-double **matrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)
-{
-  long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1;
-  double **m;
-
-  m=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));
-  if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");
-  m += NR_END;
-  m -= nrl;
-
-  m[nrl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
-  if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");
-  m[nrl] += NR_END;
-  m[nrl] -= ncl;
-
-  for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;
-  return m;
-}
-
-/*************************free matrix ************************/
-void free_matrix(double **m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)
-{
-  free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));
-  free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));
-}
-
-/******************* ma3x *******************************/
-double ***ma3x(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long nll, long nlh)
-{
-  long i, j, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1, nlay=nlh-nll+1;
-  double ***m;
-
-  m=(double ***) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));
-  if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");
-  m += NR_END;
-  m -= nrl;
-
-  m[nrl]=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
-  if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");
-  m[nrl] += NR_END;
-  m[nrl] -= ncl;
-
-  for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;
-
-  m[nrl][ncl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol*nlay+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
-  if (!m[nrl][ncl]) nrerror("allocation failure 3 in matrix()");
-  m[nrl][ncl] += NR_END;
-  m[nrl][ncl] -= nll;
-  for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++) 
-    m[nrl][j]=m[nrl][j-1]+nlay;
-  
-  for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) {
-    m[i][ncl]=m[i-1l][ncl]+ncol*nlay;
-    for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++) 
-      m[i][j]=m[i][j-1]+nlay;
-  }
-  return m;
-}
-
-/*************************free ma3x ************************/
-void free_ma3x(double ***m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch,long nll, long nlh)
-{
-  free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl][ncl]+ nll-NR_END));
-  free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));
-  free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));
-}
-
-/***************** f1dim *************************/
-extern int ncom; 
-extern double *pcom,*xicom;
-extern double (*nrfunc)(double []); 
- 
-double f1dim(double x) 
-{ 
-  int j; 
-  double f;
-  double *xt; 
- 
-  xt=vector(1,ncom); 
-  for (j=1;j<=ncom;j++) xt[j]=pcom[j]+x*xicom[j]; 
-  f=(*nrfunc)(xt); 
-  free_vector(xt,1,ncom); 
-  return f; 
-} 
-
-/*****************brent *************************/
-double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx, double (*f)(double), double tol, 	double *xmin) 
-{ 
-  int iter; 
-  double a,b,d,etemp;
-  double fu,fv,fw,fx;
-  double ftemp;
-  double p,q,r,tol1,tol2,u,v,w,x,xm; 
-  double e=0.0; 
- 
-  a=(ax < cx ? ax : cx); 
-  b=(ax > cx ? ax : cx); 
-  x=w=v=bx; 
-  fw=fv=fx=(*f)(x); 
-  for (iter=1;iter<=ITMAX;iter++) { 
-    xm=0.5*(a+b); 
-    tol2=2.0*(tol1=tol*fabs(x)+ZEPS); 
-    /*		if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret)))*/
-    printf(".");fflush(stdout);
-#ifdef DEBUG
-    printf("br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);
-    /*		if ((fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a)))||(2.0*fabs(fu-ftemp) <= ftol*1.e-2*(fabs(fu)+fabs(ftemp)))) { */
-#endif
-    if (fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a))){ 
-      *xmin=x; 
-      return fx; 
-    } 
-    ftemp=fu;
-    if (fabs(e) > tol1) { 
-      r=(x-w)*(fx-fv); 
-      q=(x-v)*(fx-fw); 
-      p=(x-v)*q-(x-w)*r; 
-      q=2.0*(q-r); 
-      if (q > 0.0) p = -p; 
-      q=fabs(q); 
-      etemp=e; 
-      e=d; 
-      if (fabs(p) >= fabs(0.5*q*etemp) || p <= q*(a-x) || p >= q*(b-x)) 
-	d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x)); 
-      else { 
-	d=p/q; 
-	u=x+d; 
-	if (u-a < tol2 || b-u < tol2) 
-	  d=SIGN(tol1,xm-x); 
-      } 
-    } else { 
-      d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x)); 
-    } 
-    u=(fabs(d) >= tol1 ? x+d : x+SIGN(tol1,d)); 
-    fu=(*f)(u); 
-    if (fu <= fx) { 
-      if (u >= x) a=x; else b=x; 
-      SHFT(v,w,x,u) 
-	SHFT(fv,fw,fx,fu) 
-	} else { 
-	  if (u < x) a=u; else b=u; 
-	  if (fu <= fw || w == x) { 
-	    v=w; 
-	    w=u; 
-	    fv=fw; 
-	    fw=fu; 
-	  } else if (fu <= fv || v == x || v == w) { 
-	    v=u; 
-	    fv=fu; 
-	  } 
-	} 
-  } 
-  nrerror("Too many iterations in brent"); 
-  *xmin=x; 
-  return fx; 
-} 
-
-/****************** mnbrak ***********************/
-
-void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb, double *fc, 
-	    double (*func)(double)) 
-{ 
-  double ulim,u,r,q, dum;
-  double fu; 
- 
-  *fa=(*func)(*ax); 
-  *fb=(*func)(*bx); 
-  if (*fb > *fa) { 
-    SHFT(dum,*ax,*bx,dum) 
-      SHFT(dum,*fb,*fa,dum) 
-      } 
-  *cx=(*bx)+GOLD*(*bx-*ax); 
-  *fc=(*func)(*cx); 
-  while (*fb > *fc) { 
-    r=(*bx-*ax)*(*fb-*fc); 
-    q=(*bx-*cx)*(*fb-*fa); 
-    u=(*bx)-((*bx-*cx)*q-(*bx-*ax)*r)/ 
-      (2.0*SIGN(FMAX(fabs(q-r),TINY),q-r)); 
-    ulim=(*bx)+GLIMIT*(*cx-*bx); 
-    if ((*bx-u)*(u-*cx) > 0.0) { 
-      fu=(*func)(u); 
-    } else if ((*cx-u)*(u-ulim) > 0.0) { 
-      fu=(*func)(u); 
-      if (fu < *fc) { 
-	SHFT(*bx,*cx,u,*cx+GOLD*(*cx-*bx)) 
-	  SHFT(*fb,*fc,fu,(*func)(u)) 
-	  } 
-    } else if ((u-ulim)*(ulim-*cx) >= 0.0) { 
-      u=ulim; 
-      fu=(*func)(u); 
-    } else { 
-      u=(*cx)+GOLD*(*cx-*bx); 
-      fu=(*func)(u); 
-    } 
-    SHFT(*ax,*bx,*cx,u) 
-      SHFT(*fa,*fb,*fc,fu) 
-      } 
-} 
-
-/*************** linmin ************************/
-
-int ncom; 
-double *pcom,*xicom;
-double (*nrfunc)(double []); 
- 
-void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,double (*func)(double [])) 
-{ 
-  double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx, 
-	       double (*f)(double), double tol, double *xmin); 
-  double f1dim(double x); 
-  void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb, 
-	      double *fc, double (*func)(double)); 
-  int j; 
-  double xx,xmin,bx,ax; 
-  double fx,fb,fa;
- 
-  ncom=n; 
-  pcom=vector(1,n); 
-  xicom=vector(1,n); 
-  nrfunc=func; 
-  for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
-    pcom[j]=p[j]; 
-    xicom[j]=xi[j]; 
-  } 
-  ax=0.0; 
-  xx=1.0; 
-  mnbrak(&ax,&xx,&bx,&fa,&fx,&fb,f1dim); 
-  *fret=brent(ax,xx,bx,f1dim,TOL,&xmin); 
-#ifdef DEBUG
-  printf("retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);
-#endif
-  for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
-    xi[j] *= xmin; 
-    p[j] += xi[j]; 
-  } 
-  free_vector(xicom,1,n); 
-  free_vector(pcom,1,n); 
-} 
-
-/*************** powell ************************/
-void powell(double p[], double **xi, int n, double ftol, int *iter, double *fret, 
-	    double (*func)(double [])) 
-{ 
-  void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret, 
-	      double (*func)(double [])); 
-  int i,ibig,j; 
-  double del,t,*pt,*ptt,*xit;
-  double fp,fptt;
-  double *xits;
-  pt=vector(1,n); 
-  ptt=vector(1,n); 
-  xit=vector(1,n); 
-  xits=vector(1,n); 
-  *fret=(*func)(p); 
-  for (j=1;j<=n;j++) pt[j]=p[j]; 
-  for (*iter=1;;++(*iter)) { 
-    fp=(*fret); 
-    ibig=0; 
-    del=0.0; 
-    printf("\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f",*iter,*fret);
-    for (i=1;i<=n;i++) 
-      printf(" %d %.12f",i, p[i]);
-    printf("\n");
-    for (i=1;i<=n;i++) { 
-      for (j=1;j<=n;j++) xit[j]=xi[j][i]; 
-      fptt=(*fret); 
-#ifdef DEBUG
-      printf("fret=%lf \n",*fret);
-#endif
-      printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);
-      linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func); 
-      if (fabs(fptt-(*fret)) > del) { 
-	del=fabs(fptt-(*fret)); 
-	ibig=i; 
-      } 
-#ifdef DEBUG
-      printf("%d %.12e",i,(*fret));
-      for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
-	xits[j]=FMAX(fabs(p[j]-pt[j]),1.e-5);
-	printf(" x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);
-      }
-      for(j=1;j<=n;j++) 
-	printf(" p=%.12e",p[j]);
-      printf("\n");
-#endif
-    } 
-    if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret))) {
-#ifdef DEBUG
-      int k[2],l;
-      k[0]=1;
-      k[1]=-1;
-      printf("Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));
-      for (j=1;j<=n;j++) 
-	printf(" %.12e",p[j]);
-      printf("\n");
-      for(l=0;l<=1;l++) {
-	for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
-	  ptt[j]=p[j]+(p[j]-pt[j])*k[l];
-	  printf("l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);
-	}
-	printf("func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));
-      }
-#endif
-
-
-      free_vector(xit,1,n); 
-      free_vector(xits,1,n); 
-      free_vector(ptt,1,n); 
-      free_vector(pt,1,n); 
-      return; 
-    } 
-    if (*iter == ITMAX) nrerror("powell exceeding maximum iterations."); 
-    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
-      ptt[j]=2.0*p[j]-pt[j]; 
-      xit[j]=p[j]-pt[j]; 
-      pt[j]=p[j]; 
-    } 
-    fptt=(*func)(ptt); 
-    if (fptt < fp) { 
-      t=2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del)-del*SQR(fp-fptt); 
-      if (t < 0.0) { 
-	linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func); 
-	for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
-	  xi[j][ibig]=xi[j][n]; 
-	  xi[j][n]=xit[j]; 
-	}
-#ifdef DEBUG
-	printf("Direction changed  last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);
-	for(j=1;j<=n;j++)
-	  printf(" %.12e",xit[j]);
-	printf("\n");
-#endif
-      } 
-    } 
-  } 
-} 
-
-/**** Prevalence limit ****************/
-
-double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double x[], double age, double **oldm, double **savm, double ftolpl, int ij)
-{
-  /* Computes the prevalence limit in each live state at age x by left multiplying the unit
-     matrix by transitions matrix until convergence is reached */
-
-  int i, ii,j,k;
-  double min, max, maxmin, maxmax,sumnew=0.;
-  double **matprod2();
-  double **out, cov[NCOVMAX], **pmij();
-  double **newm;
-  double agefin, delaymax=50 ; /* Max number of years to converge */
-
-  for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
-    for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
-      oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
-    }
-
-   cov[1]=1.;
- 
- /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */
-  for(agefin=age-stepm/YEARM; agefin>=age-delaymax; agefin=agefin-stepm/YEARM){
-    newm=savm;
-    /* Covariates have to be included here again */
-     cov[2]=agefin;
-  
-      for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {
-	cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];
-	/*printf("ij=%d Tvar[k]=%d nbcode=%d cov=%lf\n",ij, Tvar[k],nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]],cov[2+k]);*/
-      }
-      for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++)
-	cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];
-      for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)
-	cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];
-
-      /*printf("ij=%d cptcovprod=%d tvar=%d ", ij, cptcovprod, Tvar[1]);*/
-      /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf cov[4]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3],cov[4]);*/
-
-    out=matprod2(newm, pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate),1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm);
-
-    savm=oldm;
-    oldm=newm;
-    maxmax=0.;
-    for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++){
-      min=1.;
-      max=0.;
-      for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++) {
-	sumnew=0;
-	for(k=1; k<=ndeath; k++) sumnew+=newm[i][nlstate+k];
-	prlim[i][j]= newm[i][j]/(1-sumnew);
-	max=FMAX(max,prlim[i][j]);
-	min=FMIN(min,prlim[i][j]);
-      }
-      maxmin=max-min;
-      maxmax=FMAX(maxmax,maxmin);
-    }
-    if(maxmax < ftolpl){
-      return prlim;
-    }
-  }
-}
-
-/*************** transition probabilities ***************/ 
-
-double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate )
-{
-  double s1, s2;
-  /*double t34;*/
-  int i,j,j1, nc, ii, jj;
-
-    for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
-    for(j=1; j<i;j++){
-      for (nc=1, s2=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
-	/*s2 += param[i][j][nc]*cov[nc];*/
-	s2 += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-1)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
-	/*printf("Int j<i s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e\n",s1,s2);*/
-      }
-      ps[i][j]=s2;
-      /*printf("s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e\n",s1,s2);*/
-    }
-    for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
-      for (nc=1, s2=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
-	s2 += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-2)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
-	/*printf("Int j>i s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e %lx %lx\n",s1,s2,s1,s2);*/
-      }
-      ps[i][j]=s2;
-    }
-  }
-    /*ps[3][2]=1;*/
-
-  for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
-     s1=0;
-    for(j=1; j<i; j++)
-      s1+=exp(ps[i][j]);
-    for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)
-      s1+=exp(ps[i][j]);
-    ps[i][i]=1./(s1+1.);
-    for(j=1; j<i; j++)
-      ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
-    for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)
-      ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
-    /* ps[i][nlstate+1]=1.-s1- ps[i][i];*/ /* Sum should be 1 */
-  } /* end i */
-
-  for(ii=nlstate+1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){
-    for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
-      ps[ii][jj]=0;
-      ps[ii][ii]=1;
-    }
-  }
-
-
-  /*   for(ii=1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){
-    for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
-     printf("%lf ",ps[ii][jj]);
-   }
-    printf("\n ");
-    }
-    printf("\n ");printf("%lf ",cov[2]);*/
-/*
-  for(i=1; i<= npar; i++) printf("%f ",x[i]);
-  goto end;*/
-    return ps;
-}
-
-/**************** Product of 2 matrices ******************/
-
-double **matprod2(double **out, double **in,long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long ncolol, long ncoloh, double **b)
-{
-  /* Computes the matrix product of in(1,nrh-nrl+1)(1,nch-ncl+1) times
-     b(1,nch-ncl+1)(1,ncoloh-ncolol+1) into out(...) */
-  /* in, b, out are matrice of pointers which should have been initialized 
-     before: only the contents of out is modified. The function returns
-     a pointer to pointers identical to out */
-  long i, j, k;
-  for(i=nrl; i<= nrh; i++)
-    for(k=ncolol; k<=ncoloh; k++)
-      for(j=ncl,out[i][k]=0.; j<=nch; j++)
-	out[i][k] +=in[i][j]*b[j][k];
-
-  return out;
-}
-
-
-/************* Higher Matrix Product ***************/
-
-double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstepm, double age, int hstepm, double *x, int nlstate, int stepm, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij )
-{
-  /* Computes the transition matrix starting at age 'age' over 'nhstepm*hstepm*stepm' month 
-     duration (i.e. until
-     age (in years)  age+nhstepm*stepm/12) by multiplying nhstepm*hstepm matrices. 
-     Output is stored in matrix po[i][j][h] for h every 'hstepm' step 
-     (typically every 2 years instead of every month which is too big).
-     Model is determined by parameters x and covariates have to be 
-     included manually here. 
-
-     */
-
-  int i, j, d, h, k;
-  double **out, cov[NCOVMAX];
-  double **newm;
-
-  /* Hstepm could be zero and should return the unit matrix */
-  for (i=1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)
-    for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
-      oldm[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
-      po[i][j][0]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
-    }
-  /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */
-  for(h=1; h <=nhstepm; h++){
-    for(d=1; d <=hstepm; d++){
-      newm=savm;
-      /* Covariates have to be included here again */
-      cov[1]=1.;
-      cov[2]=age+((h-1)*hstepm + (d-1))*stepm/YEARM;
-      for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];
-      for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++)
-	cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];
-      for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)
-	cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];
-
-
-      /*printf("hxi cptcov=%d cptcode=%d\n",cptcov,cptcode);*/
-      /*printf("h=%d d=%d age=%f cov=%f\n",h,d,age,cov[2]);*/
-      out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, 
-		   pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
-      savm=oldm;
-      oldm=newm;
-    }
-    for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)
-      for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
-	po[i][j][h]=newm[i][j];
-	/*printf("i=%d j=%d h=%d po[i][j][h]=%f ",i,j,h,po[i][j][h]);
-	 */
-      }
-  } /* end h */
-  return po;
-}
-
-
-/*************** log-likelihood *************/
-double func( double *x)
-{
-  int i, ii, j, k, mi, d, kk;
-  double l, ll[NLSTATEMAX], cov[NCOVMAX];
-  double **out;
-  double sw; /* Sum of weights */
-  double lli; /* Individual log likelihood */
-  long ipmx;
-  /*extern weight */
-  /* We are differentiating ll according to initial status */
-  /*  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) printf("%f ", x[i]);*/
-  /*for(i=1;i<imx;i++) 
-    printf(" %d\n",s[4][i]);
-  */
-  cov[1]=1.;
-
-  for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) ll[k]=0.;
-  for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
-    for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
-    for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
-      for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
-	for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
-      for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
-	newm=savm;
-	cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
-	for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
-	  cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
-	}
-	
-	out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
-		     1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
-	savm=oldm;
-	oldm=newm;
-	
-	
-      } /* end mult */
-      
-      lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]);
-      /* printf(" %f ",out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]);*/
-      ipmx +=1;
-      sw += weight[i];
-      ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
-    } /* end of wave */
-  } /* end of individual */
-
-  for(k=1,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++) l += ll[k];
-  /* printf("l1=%f l2=%f ",ll[1],ll[2]); */
-  l= l*ipmx/sw; /* To get the same order of magnitude as if weight=1 for every body */
-  return -l;
-}
-
-
-/*********** Maximum Likelihood Estimation ***************/
-
-void mlikeli(FILE *ficres,double p[], int npar, int ncovmodel, int nlstate, double ftol, double (*func)(double []))
-{
-  int i,j, iter;
-  double **xi,*delti;
-  double fret;
-  xi=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
-  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
-    for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)
-      xi[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
-  printf("Powell\n");
-  powell(p,xi,npar,ftol,&iter,&fret,func);
-
-   printf("\n#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter,func(p));
-  fprintf(ficres,"#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f \n",iter,func(p));
-
-}
-
-/**** Computes Hessian and covariance matrix ***/
-void hesscov(double **matcov, double p[], int npar, double delti[], double ftolhess, double (*func)(double []))
-{
-  double  **a,**y,*x,pd;
-  double **hess;
-  int i, j,jk;
-  int *indx;
-
-  double hessii(double p[], double delta, int theta, double delti[]);
-  double hessij(double p[], double delti[], int i, int j);
-  void lubksb(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double b[]) ;
-  void ludcmp(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double *d) ;
-
-  hess=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
-
-  printf("\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");
-  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){
-    printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);
-    hess[i][i]=hessii(p,ftolhess,i,delti);
-    /*printf(" %f ",p[i]);*/
-    /*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][i]);*/
-  }
-  
-  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {
-    for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)  {
-      if (j>i) { 
-	printf(".%d%d",i,j);fflush(stdout);
-	hess[i][j]=hessij(p,delti,i,j);
-	hess[j][i]=hess[i][j];    
-	/*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][j]);*/
-      }
-    }
-  }
-  printf("\n");
-
-  printf("\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");
-  
-  a=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
-  y=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
-  x=vector(1,npar);
-  indx=ivector(1,npar);
-  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
-    for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=hess[i][j];
-  ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);
-
-  for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
-    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;
-    x[j]=1;
-    lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);
-    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){ 
-      matcov[i][j]=x[i];
-    }
-  }
-
-  printf("\n#Hessian matrix#\n");
-  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) { 
-    for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) { 
-      printf("%.3e ",hess[i][j]);
-    }
-    printf("\n");
-  }
-
-  /* Recompute Inverse */
-  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
-    for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=matcov[i][j];
-  ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);
-
-  /*  printf("\n#Hessian matrix recomputed#\n");
-
-  for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
-    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;
-    x[j]=1;
-    lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);
-    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){ 
-      y[i][j]=x[i];
-      printf("%.3e ",y[i][j]);
-    }
-    printf("\n");
-  }
-  */
-
-  free_matrix(a,1,npar,1,npar);
-  free_matrix(y,1,npar,1,npar);
-  free_vector(x,1,npar);
-  free_ivector(indx,1,npar);
-  free_matrix(hess,1,npar,1,npar);
-
-
-}
-
-/*************** hessian matrix ****************/
-double hessii( double x[], double delta, int theta, double delti[])
-{
-  int i;
-  int l=1, lmax=20;
-  double k1,k2;
-  double p2[NPARMAX+1];
-  double res;
-  double delt, delts, nkhi=10.,nkhif=1., khi=1.e-4;
-  double fx;
-  int k=0,kmax=10;
-  double l1;
-
-  fx=func(x);
-  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];
-  for(l=0 ; l <=lmax; l++){
-    l1=pow(10,l);
-    delts=delt;
-    for(k=1 ; k <kmax; k=k+1){
-      delt = delta*(l1*k);
-      p2[theta]=x[theta] +delt;
-      k1=func(p2)-fx;
-      p2[theta]=x[theta]-delt;
-      k2=func(p2)-fx;
-      /*res= (k1-2.0*fx+k2)/delt/delt; */
-      res= (k1+k2)/delt/delt/2.; /* Divided by because L and not 2*L */
-      
-#ifdef DEBUG
-      printf("%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);
-#endif
-      /*if(fabs(k1-2.0*fx+k2) <1.e-13){ */
-      if((k1 <khi/nkhi/2.) || (k2 <khi/nkhi/2.)){
-	k=kmax;
-      }
-      else if((k1 >khi/nkhif) || (k2 >khi/nkhif)){ /* Keeps lastvalue before 3.84/2 KHI2 5% 1d.f. */
-	k=kmax; l=lmax*10.;
-      }
-      else if((k1 >khi/nkhi) || (k2 >khi/nkhi)){ 
-	delts=delt;
-      }
-    }
-  }
-  delti[theta]=delts;
-  return res; 
-  
-}
-
-double hessij( double x[], double delti[], int thetai,int thetaj)
-{
-  int i;
-  int l=1, l1, lmax=20;
-  double k1,k2,k3,k4,res,fx;
-  double p2[NPARMAX+1];
-  int k;
-
-  fx=func(x);
-  for (k=1; k<=2; k++) {
-    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];
-    p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;
-    p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;
-    k1=func(p2)-fx;
-  
-    p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;
-    p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;
-    k2=func(p2)-fx;
-  
-    p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;
-    p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;
-    k3=func(p2)-fx;
-  
-    p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;
-    p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;
-    k4=func(p2)-fx;
-    res=(k1-k2-k3+k4)/4.0/delti[thetai]*k/delti[thetaj]*k/2.; /* Because of L not 2*L */
-#ifdef DEBUG
-    printf("%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
-#endif
-  }
-  return res;
-}
-
-/************** Inverse of matrix **************/
-void ludcmp(double **a, int n, int *indx, double *d) 
-{ 
-  int i,imax,j,k; 
-  double big,dum,sum,temp; 
-  double *vv; 
- 
-  vv=vector(1,n); 
-  *d=1.0; 
-  for (i=1;i<=n;i++) { 
-    big=0.0; 
-    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) 
-      if ((temp=fabs(a[i][j])) > big) big=temp; 
-    if (big == 0.0) nrerror("Singular matrix in routine ludcmp"); 
-    vv[i]=1.0/big; 
-  } 
-  for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
-    for (i=1;i<j;i++) { 
-      sum=a[i][j]; 
-      for (k=1;k<i;k++) sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j]; 
-      a[i][j]=sum; 
-    } 
-    big=0.0; 
-    for (i=j;i<=n;i++) { 
-      sum=a[i][j]; 
-      for (k=1;k<j;k++) 
-	sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j]; 
-      a[i][j]=sum; 
-      if ( (dum=vv[i]*fabs(sum)) >= big) { 
-	big=dum; 
-	imax=i; 
-      } 
-    } 
-    if (j != imax) { 
-      for (k=1;k<=n;k++) { 
-	dum=a[imax][k]; 
-	a[imax][k]=a[j][k]; 
-	a[j][k]=dum; 
-      } 
-      *d = -(*d); 
-      vv[imax]=vv[j]; 
-    } 
-    indx[j]=imax; 
-    if (a[j][j] == 0.0) a[j][j]=TINY; 
-    if (j != n) { 
-      dum=1.0/(a[j][j]); 
-      for (i=j+1;i<=n;i++) a[i][j] *= dum; 
-    } 
-  } 
-  free_vector(vv,1,n);  /* Doesn't work */
-;
-} 
-
-void lubksb(double **a, int n, int *indx, double b[]) 
-{ 
-  int i,ii=0,ip,j; 
-  double sum; 
- 
-  for (i=1;i<=n;i++) { 
-    ip=indx[i]; 
-    sum=b[ip]; 
-    b[ip]=b[i]; 
-    if (ii) 
-      for (j=ii;j<=i-1;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j]; 
-    else if (sum) ii=i; 
-    b[i]=sum; 
-  } 
-  for (i=n;i>=1;i--) { 
-    sum=b[i]; 
-    for (j=i+1;j<=n;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j]; 
-    b[i]=sum/a[i][i]; 
-  } 
-} 
-
-/************ Frequencies ********************/
-void  freqsummary(char fileres[], int agemin, int agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, double dateprev1,double dateprev2)
-{  /* Some frequencies */
- 
-  int i, m, jk, k1,i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;
-  double ***freq; /* Frequencies */
-  double *pp;
-  double pos, k2, dateintsum=0,k2cpt=0;
-  FILE *ficresp;
-  char fileresp[FILENAMELENGTH];
-
-  pp=vector(1,nlstate);
-  probs= ma3x(1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
-  strcpy(fileresp,"p");
-  strcat(fileresp,fileres);
-  if((ficresp=fopen(fileresp,"w"))==NULL) {
-    printf("Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);
-    exit(0);
-  }
-  freq= ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,agemin,agemax+3);
-  j1=0;
-
-  j=cptcoveff;
-  if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
-
-  for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){
-   for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
-       j1++;
-       /*printf("cptcoveff=%d Tvaraff=%d", cptcoveff,Tvaraff[1]);
-	 scanf("%d", i);*/
-        for (i=-1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)  
-	 for (jk=-1; jk<=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)  
-	   for(m=agemin; m <= agemax+3; m++)
-	     freq[i][jk][m]=0;
-
-	dateintsum=0;
-	k2cpt=0;
-       for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
-	 bool=1;
-	 if  (cptcovn>0) {
-	   for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) 
-	     if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]) 
-	       bool=0;
-	 }
-	 if (bool==1) {
-	   for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){
-	     k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);
-	     if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {
-	       if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=agemax+1;
-	       if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=agemax+2;
-	       freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
-	       freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int) agemax+3] += weight[i];
-	       if ((agev[m][i]>1) && (agev[m][i]< (agemax+3))) {
-		 dateintsum=dateintsum+k2;
-		 k2cpt++;
-	       }
-
-	     }
-	   }
-	 }
-       }
-        if  (cptcovn>0) {
-	 fprintf(ficresp, "\n#********** Variable "); 
-	 for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresp, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
-       fprintf(ficresp, "**********\n#");
-	}
-       for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) 
-	 fprintf(ficresp, " Age Prev(%d) N(%d) N",i,i);
-       fprintf(ficresp, "\n");
-       
-  for(i=(int)agemin; i <= (int)agemax+3; i++){
-    if(i==(int)agemax+3)
-      printf("Total");
-    else
-      printf("Age %d", i);
-    for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
-      for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)
-	pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i]; 
-    }
-    for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
-      for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)
-	pos += freq[jk][m][i];
-      if(pp[jk]>=1.e-10)
-	printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);
-      else
-        printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
-    }
-
-     for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
-      for(m=0, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)
-	pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];
-     }
-
-    for(jk=1,pos=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++)
-      pos += pp[jk];
-    for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
-      if(pos>=1.e-5)
-	printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);
-      else
-	printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
-      if( i <= (int) agemax){
-	if(pos>=1.e-5){
-	  fprintf(ficresp," %d %.5f %.0f %.0f",i,pp[jk]/pos, pp[jk],pos);
-	  probs[i][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;
-	  /*printf("\ni=%d jk=%d j1=%d %.5f %.0f %.0f %f",i,jk,j1,pp[jk]/pos, pp[jk],pos,probs[i][jk][j1]);*/
-	}
-      else
-	  fprintf(ficresp," %d NaNq %.0f %.0f",i,pp[jk],pos);
-      }
-    }
-    for(jk=-1; jk <=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)
-      for(m=-1; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)
-	if(freq[jk][m][i] !=0 ) printf(" %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);
-    if(i <= (int) agemax)
-      fprintf(ficresp,"\n");
-    printf("\n");
-    }
-    }
- }
-  dateintmean=dateintsum/k2cpt; 
- 
-  fclose(ficresp);
-  free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) agemin,(int) agemax+3);
-  free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);
-
-  /* End of Freq */
-}
-
-/************ Prevalence ********************/
-void prevalence(int agemin, int agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, double dateprev1,double dateprev2, double calagedate)
-{  /* Some frequencies */
- 
-  int i, m, jk, k1, i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;
-  double ***freq; /* Frequencies */
-  double *pp;
-  double pos, k2;
-
-  pp=vector(1,nlstate);
-  probs= ma3x(1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
-  
-  freq=ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,agemin,agemax+3);
-  j1=0;
-  
-  j=cptcoveff;
-  if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
-  
- for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){
-    for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
-      j1++;
- 
-      for (i=-1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)  
-	for (jk=-1; jk<=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)  
-	  for(m=agemin; m <= agemax+3; m++)
-	    freq[i][jk][m]=0;
-      
-      for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
-	bool=1;
-	if  (cptcovn>0) {
-	  for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) 
-	    if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]) 
-	      bool=0;
-	}
-	if (bool==1) { 
-	  for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){
-	    k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);
-	    if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {
-	      if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=agemax+1;
-	      if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=agemax+2;
-	      freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)(agev[m][i]+1-((int)calagedate %12)/12.)] += weight[i];
-	      freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)(agemax+3+1)] += weight[i];   
-	    }
-	  }
-	}
-      }
-      
-	for(i=(int)agemin; i <= (int)agemax+3; i++){ 
-	  for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
-	    for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)
-	      pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i]; 
-	  }
-	  for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
-	    for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)
-	    pos += freq[jk][m][i];
-	}
-	
-	 for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
-	   for(m=0, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)
-	     pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];
-	 }
-	 
-	 for(jk=1,pos=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++) pos += pp[jk];
-
-	 for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){	   
-	   if( i <= (int) agemax){
-	     if(pos>=1.e-5){
-	       probs[i][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;
-	     }
-	   }
-	 }
-	 
-	}
-    }
-  }
-  
-  
-  free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) agemin,(int) agemax+3);
-  free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);
-  
-}  /* End of Freq */
-
-/************* Waves Concatenation ***************/
-
-void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int **mw, int **s, double *agedc, double **agev, int  firstpass, int lastpass, int imx, int nlstate, int stepm)
-{
-  /* Concatenates waves: wav[i] is the number of effective (useful waves) of individual i.
-     Death is a valid wave (if date is known).
-     mw[mi][i] is the mi (mi=1 to wav[i])  effective wave of individual i
-     dh[m][i] of dh[mw[mi][i][i] is the delay between two effective waves m=mw[mi][i]
-     and mw[mi+1][i]. dh depends on stepm.
-     */
-
-  int i, mi, m;
-  /* int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl,jmin=1e+5, jmax=-1;
-     double sum=0., jmean=0.;*/
-
-  int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl;
-  double sum=0.;
-  jmin=1e+5;
-  jmax=-1;
-  jmean=0.;
-  for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){
-    mi=0;
-    m=firstpass;
-    while(s[m][i] <= nlstate){
-      if(s[m][i]>=1)
-	mw[++mi][i]=m;
-      if(m >=lastpass)
-	break;
-      else
-	m++;
-    }/* end while */
-    if (s[m][i] > nlstate){
-      mi++;	/* Death is another wave */
-      /* if(mi==0)  never been interviewed correctly before death */
-	 /* Only death is a correct wave */
-      mw[mi][i]=m;
-    }
-
-    wav[i]=mi;
-    if(mi==0)
-      printf("Warning, no any valid information for:%d line=%d\n",num[i],i);
-  }
-
-  for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){
-    for(mi=1; mi<wav[i];mi++){
-      if (stepm <=0)
-	dh[mi][i]=1;
-      else{
-	if (s[mw[mi+1][i]][i] > nlstate) {
-	  if (agedc[i] < 2*AGESUP) {
-	  j= rint(agedc[i]*12-agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12); 
-	  if(j==0) j=1;  /* Survives at least one month after exam */
-	  k=k+1;
-	  if (j >= jmax) jmax=j;
-	  if (j <= jmin) jmin=j;
-	  sum=sum+j;
-	  /* if (j<10) printf("j=%d num=%d ",j,i); */
-	  }
-	}
-	else{
-	  j= rint( (agev[mw[mi+1][i]][i]*12 - agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12));
-	  k=k+1;
-	  if (j >= jmax) jmax=j;
-	  else if (j <= jmin)jmin=j;
-	  /*   if (j<10) printf("j=%d jmin=%d num=%d ",j,jmin,i); */
-	  sum=sum+j;
-	}
-	jk= j/stepm;
-	jl= j -jk*stepm;
-	ju= j -(jk+1)*stepm;
-	if(jl <= -ju)
-	  dh[mi][i]=jk;
-	else
-	  dh[mi][i]=jk+1;
-	if(dh[mi][i]==0)
-	  dh[mi][i]=1; /* At least one step */
-      }
-    }
-  }
-  jmean=sum/k;
-  printf("Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%f\n\n ",jmin, jmax,jmean);
- }
-/*********** Tricode ****************************/
-void tricode(int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int imx)
-{
-  int Ndum[20],ij=1, k, j, i;
-  int cptcode=0;
-  cptcoveff=0; 
- 
-  for (k=0; k<19; k++) Ndum[k]=0;
-  for (k=1; k<=7; k++) ncodemax[k]=0;
-
-  for (j=1; j<=(cptcovn+2*cptcovprod); j++) {
-    for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
-      ij=(int)(covar[Tvar[j]][i]);
-      Ndum[ij]++; 
-      /*printf("i=%d ij=%d Ndum[ij]=%d imx=%d",i,ij,Ndum[ij],imx);*/
-      if (ij > cptcode) cptcode=ij; 
-    }
-
-    for (i=0; i<=cptcode; i++) {
-      if(Ndum[i]!=0) ncodemax[j]++;
-    }
-    ij=1; 
-
-
-    for (i=1; i<=ncodemax[j]; i++) {
-      for (k=0; k<=19; k++) {
-	if (Ndum[k] != 0) {
-	  nbcode[Tvar[j]][ij]=k; 
-	  ij++;
-	}
-	if (ij > ncodemax[j]) break; 
-      }  
-    } 
-  }  
-
- for (k=0; k<19; k++) Ndum[k]=0;
-
- for (i=1; i<=ncovmodel-2; i++) {
-      ij=Tvar[i];
-      Ndum[ij]++; 
-    }
-
- ij=1;
- for (i=1; i<=10; i++) {
-   if((Ndum[i]!=0) && (i<=ncov)){
-     Tvaraff[ij]=i; 
-     ij++;
-   }
- }
- 
-    cptcoveff=ij-1;
-}
-
-/*********** Health Expectancies ****************/
-
-void evsij(char fileres[], double ***eij, double x[], int nlstate, int stepm, int bage, int fage, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij)
-{
-  /* Health expectancies */
-  int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h;
-  double age, agelim,hf;
-  double ***p3mat;
-  
-  fprintf(ficreseij,"# Health expectancies\n");
-  fprintf(ficreseij,"# Age");
-  for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-    for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
-      fprintf(ficreseij," %1d-%1d",i,j);
-  fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");
-
-  hstepm=1*YEARM; /*  Every j years of age (in month) */
-  hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */ 
-
-  agelim=AGESUP;
-  for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
-    /* nhstepm age range expressed in number of stepm */
-    nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); 
-    /* Typically if 20 years = 20*12/6=40 stepm */ 
-    if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;
-    nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically 40/4=10 */
-    p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
-    /* Computed by stepm unit matrices, product of hstepm matrices, stored
-       in an array of nhstepm length: nhstepm=10, hstepm=4, stepm=6 months */
-    hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm, savm, ij);  
-
-
-    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-      for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
-	for (h=0, eij[i][j][(int)age]=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
-	  eij[i][j][(int)age] +=p3mat[i][j][h];
-	}
-    
-    hf=1;
-    if (stepm >= YEARM) hf=stepm/YEARM;
-    fprintf(ficreseij,"%.0f",age );
-    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-      for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
-	fprintf(ficreseij," %.4f", hf*eij[i][j][(int)age]);
-      }
-    fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");
-    free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
-  }
-}
-
-/************ Variance ******************/
-void varevsij(char fileres[], double ***vareij, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij)
-{
-  /* Variance of health expectancies */
-  /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double ** savm,double ftolpl);*/
-  double **newm;
-  double **dnewm,**doldm;
-  int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h;
-  int k, cptcode;
-  double *xp;
-  double **gp, **gm;
-  double ***gradg, ***trgradg;
-  double ***p3mat;
-  double age,agelim;
-  int theta;
-
-   fprintf(ficresvij,"# Covariances of life expectancies\n");
-  fprintf(ficresvij,"# Age");
-  for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-    for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
-      fprintf(ficresvij," Cov(e%1d, e%1d)",i,j);
-  fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
-
-  xp=vector(1,npar);
-  dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
-  doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
-  
-  hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
-  hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */ 
-  agelim = AGESUP;
-  for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
-    nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */ 
-    if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;
-    nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */
-    p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
-    gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
-    gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
-    gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
-
-    for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
-      for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */
-	xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
-      }
-      hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
-      prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
-
-      if (popbased==1) {
-	for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-	  prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
-      }
-      
-      for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
-	for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
-	  for(i=1, gp[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
-	    gp[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
-	}
-      }
-    
-      for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */
-	xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
-      hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
-      prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
-
-      if (popbased==1) {
-	for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-	  prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
-      }
-
-      for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
-	for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
-	  for(i=1, gm[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
-	    gm[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
-	}
-      }
-
-      for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++)
-	for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
-	  gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];
-	}
-    } /* End theta */
-
-    trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
-
-    for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++)
-      for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
-	for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
-	  trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];
-
-    for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
-      for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
-	vareij[i][j][(int)age] =0.;
-    for(h=0;h<=nhstepm;h++){
-      for(k=0;k<=nhstepm;k++){
-	matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
-	matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg[k]);
-	for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
-	  for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
-	    vareij[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j];
-      }
-    }
-    h=1;
-    if (stepm >= YEARM) h=stepm/YEARM;
-    fprintf(ficresvij,"%.0f ",age );
-    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-      for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
-	fprintf(ficresvij," %.4f", h*vareij[i][j][(int)age]);
-      }
-    fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
-    free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
-    free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
-    free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
-    free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
-    free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
-  } /* End age */
- 
-  free_vector(xp,1,npar);
-  free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
-  free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
-
-}
-
-/************ Variance of prevlim ******************/
-void varprevlim(char fileres[], double **varpl, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij)
-{
-  /* Variance of prevalence limit */
-  /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double ** savm,double ftolpl);*/
-  double **newm;
-  double **dnewm,**doldm;
-  int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm;
-  int k, cptcode;
-  double *xp;
-  double *gp, *gm;
-  double **gradg, **trgradg;
-  double age,agelim;
-  int theta;
-   
-  fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Standard deviation of prevalences limit\n");
-  fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Age");
-  for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-      fprintf(ficresvpl," %1d-%1d",i,i);
-  fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
-
-  xp=vector(1,npar);
-  dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
-  doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
-  
-  hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
-  hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */ 
-  agelim = AGESUP;
-  for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
-    nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */ 
-    if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;
-    nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */
-    gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);
-    gp=vector(1,nlstate);
-    gm=vector(1,nlstate);
-
-    for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
-      for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */
-	xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
-      }
-      prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
-      for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
-	gp[i] = prlim[i][i];
-    
-      for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */
-	xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
-      prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
-      for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
-	gm[i] = prlim[i][i];
-
-      for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
-	gradg[theta][i]= (gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];
-    } /* End theta */
-
-    trgradg =matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
-
-    for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
-      for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
-	trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
-
-    for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
-      varpl[i][(int)age] =0.;
-    matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
-    matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);
-    for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
-      varpl[i][(int)age] = doldm[i][i]; /* Covariances are useless */
-
-    fprintf(ficresvpl,"%.0f ",age );
-    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-      fprintf(ficresvpl," %.5f (%.5f)",prlim[i][i],sqrt(varpl[i][(int)age]));
-    fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
-    free_vector(gp,1,nlstate);
-    free_vector(gm,1,nlstate);
-    free_matrix(gradg,1,npar,1,nlstate);
-    free_matrix(trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar);
-  } /* End age */
-
-  free_vector(xp,1,npar);
-  free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
-  free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
-
-}
-
-/************ Variance of one-step probabilities  ******************/
-void varprob(char fileres[], double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, double bage, double fage, int ij)
-{
-  int i, j;
-  int k=0, cptcode;
-  double **dnewm,**doldm;
-  double *xp;
-  double *gp, *gm;
-  double **gradg, **trgradg;
-  double age,agelim, cov[NCOVMAX];
-  int theta;
-  char fileresprob[FILENAMELENGTH];
-
-  strcpy(fileresprob,"prob"); 
-  strcat(fileresprob,fileres);
-  if((ficresprob=fopen(fileresprob,"w"))==NULL) {
-    printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
-  }
-  printf("Computing variance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
-  
-
-  xp=vector(1,npar);
-  dnewm=matrix(1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
-  doldm=matrix(1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
-  
-  cov[1]=1;
-  for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ 
-    cov[2]=age;
-    gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,9);
-    trgradg=matrix(1,9,1,npar);
-    gp=vector(1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
-    gm=vector(1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
-    
-    for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
-      for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
-	xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
-     
-      pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
-   
-      k=0;
-      for(i=1; i<= (nlstate+ndeath); i++){
-	for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
-	   k=k+1;
-	  gp[k]=pmmij[i][j];
-	}
-      }
-
-      for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
-	xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
-    
-
-      pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
-      k=0;
-      for(i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath); i++){
-	for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
-	  k=k+1;
-	  gm[k]=pmmij[i][j];
-	}
-      }
-     
-       for(i=1; i<= (nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath); i++) 
-	   gradg[theta][i]=(gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];  
-    }
-
-     for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)
-      for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
-      trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
- 
-     matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,9,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
-     matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,9,1,npar,1,9,gradg);
-
-     pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate);
-
-     k=0;
-     for(i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath); i++){
-       for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
-	 k=k+1;
-	 gm[k]=pmmij[i][j];
-	}
-     }
-     
-     /*printf("\n%d ",(int)age);
-     for (i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath-1);i++){
-       
-
-       printf("%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));
-     }*/
-
-  fprintf(ficresprob,"\n%d ",(int)age);
-
-  for (i=1; i<=(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath-1);i++){
-    if (i== 2) fprintf(ficresprob,"%.3e %.3e ",gm[i],doldm[i][i]);
-if (i== 4) fprintf(ficresprob,"%.3e %.3e ",gm[i],doldm[i][i]);
-  }
-
-    free_vector(gp,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
-    free_vector(gm,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
-    free_matrix(trgradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
-    free_matrix(gradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
-}
- free_vector(xp,1,npar);
-fclose(ficresprob);
- exit(0);
-}
-
-/***********************************************/
-/**************** Main Program *****************/
-/***********************************************/
-
-int main(int argc, char *argv[])
-{
-
-  int i,j, k, n=MAXN,iter,m,size,cptcode, cptcod;
-  double agedeb, agefin,hf;
-  double agemin=1.e20, agemax=-1.e20;
-
-  double fret;
-  double **xi,tmp,delta;
-
-  double dum; /* Dummy variable */
-  double ***p3mat;
-  int *indx;
-  char line[MAXLINE], linepar[MAXLINE];
-  char title[MAXLINE];
-  char optionfile[FILENAMELENGTH], datafile[FILENAMELENGTH],  filerespl[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilehtm[FILENAMELENGTH];
-  char optionfilext[10], optionfilefiname[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilegnuplot[FILENAMELENGTH], plotcmd[FILENAMELENGTH];
-  
-  char fileres[FILENAMELENGTH], filerespij[FILENAMELENGTH], filereso[FILENAMELENGTH], fileresf[FILENAMELENGTH];
-
-  char filerest[FILENAMELENGTH];
-  char fileregp[FILENAMELENGTH];
-  char popfile[FILENAMELENGTH];
-  char path[80],pathc[80],pathcd[80],pathtot[80],model[20];
-  int firstobs=1, lastobs=10;
-  int sdeb, sfin; /* Status at beginning and end */
-  int c,  h , cpt,l;
-  int ju,jl, mi;
-  int i1,j1, k1,k2,k3,jk,aa,bb, stepsize, ij;
-  int jnais,jdc,jint4,jint1,jint2,jint3,**outcome,**adl,*tab; 
-  int mobilav=0,popforecast=0;
-  int hstepm, nhstepm;
-  int *popage;/*boolprev=0 if date and zero if wave*/
-  double jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2;
-
-  double bage, fage, age, agelim, agebase;
-  double ftolpl=FTOL;
-  double **prlim;
-  double *severity;
-  double ***param; /* Matrix of parameters */
-  double  *p;
-  double **matcov; /* Matrix of covariance */
-  double ***delti3; /* Scale */
-  double *delti; /* Scale */
-  double ***eij, ***vareij;
-  double **varpl; /* Variances of prevalence limits by age */
-  double *epj, vepp;
-  double kk1, kk2;
-  double *popeffectif,*popcount;
-  double dateprev1, dateprev2,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean, calagedate;
-  double yp,yp1,yp2;
-
-  char version[80]="Imach version 0.7, February 2002, INED-EUROREVES ";
-  char *alph[]={"a","a","b","c","d","e"}, str[4];
-
-
-  char z[1]="c", occ;
-#include <sys/time.h>
-#include <time.h>
-  char stra[80], strb[80], strc[80], strd[80],stre[80],modelsav[80];
- 
-  /* long total_usecs;
-  struct timeval start_time, end_time;
-  
-  gettimeofday(&start_time, (struct timezone*)0); */ /* at first time */
-
-
-  printf("\n%s",version);
-  if(argc <=1){
-    printf("\nEnter the parameter file name: ");
-    scanf("%s",pathtot);
-  }
-  else{
-    strcpy(pathtot,argv[1]);
-  }
-  /*if(getcwd(pathcd, 80)!= NULL)printf ("Error pathcd\n");*/
-  /*cygwin_split_path(pathtot,path,optionfile);
-    printf("pathtot=%s, path=%s, optionfile=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile);*/
-  /* cutv(path,optionfile,pathtot,'\\');*/
-
-  split(pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
-   printf("pathtot=%s, path=%s, optionfile=%s optionfilext=%s optionfilefiname=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
-  chdir(path);
-  replace(pathc,path);
-
-/*-------- arguments in the command line --------*/
-
-  strcpy(fileres,"r");
-  strcat(fileres, optionfilefiname);
-  strcat(fileres,".txt");    /* Other files have txt extension */
-
-  /*---------arguments file --------*/
-
-  if((ficpar=fopen(optionfile,"r"))==NULL)    {
-    printf("Problem with optionfile %s\n",optionfile);
-    goto end;
-  }
-
-  strcpy(filereso,"o");
-  strcat(filereso,fileres);
-  if((ficparo=fopen(filereso,"w"))==NULL) {
-    printf("Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);goto end;
-  }
-
-  /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
-  while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
-    ungetc(c,ficpar);
-    fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
-    puts(line);
-    fputs(line,ficparo);
-  }
-  ungetc(c,ficpar);
-
-  fscanf(ficpar,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%lf stepm=%d ncov=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n",title, datafile, &lastobs, &firstpass,&lastpass,&ftol, &stepm, &ncov, &nlstate,&ndeath, &maxwav, &mle, &weightopt,model);
-  printf("title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncov=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncov, nlstate,ndeath, maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
-  fprintf(ficparo,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncov=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncov,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
-while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
-    ungetc(c,ficpar);
-    fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
-    puts(line);
-    fputs(line,ficparo);
-  }
-  ungetc(c,ficpar);
-  
-   
-  covar=matrix(0,NCOVMAX,1,n); 
-  cptcovn=0; 
-  if (strlen(model)>1) cptcovn=nbocc(model,'+')+1;
-
-  ncovmodel=2+cptcovn;
-  nvar=ncovmodel-1; /* Suppressing age as a basic covariate */
-  
-  /* Read guess parameters */
-  /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
-  while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
-    ungetc(c,ficpar);
-    fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
-    puts(line);
-    fputs(line,ficparo);
-  }
-  ungetc(c,ficpar);
-  
-  param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
-    for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++)
-    for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath-1; j++){
-      fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);
-      fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
-      printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
-      for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
-	fscanf(ficpar," %lf",&param[i][j][k]);
-	printf(" %lf",param[i][j][k]);
-	fprintf(ficparo," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
-      }
-      fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
-      printf("\n");
-      fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
-    }
-  
-    npar= (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel;
-
-  p=param[1][1];
-  
-  /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
-  while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
-    ungetc(c,ficpar);
-    fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
-    puts(line);
-    fputs(line,ficparo);
-  }
-  ungetc(c,ficpar);
-
-  delti3= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
-  delti=vector(1,npar); /* Scale of each paramater (output from hesscov) */
-  for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
-    for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath-1; j++){
-      fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);
-      printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
-      fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
-      for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
-	fscanf(ficpar,"%le",&delti3[i][j][k]);
-	printf(" %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
-	fprintf(ficparo," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
-      }
-      fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
-      printf("\n");
-      fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
-    }
-  }
-  delti=delti3[1][1];
-  
-  /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
-  while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
-    ungetc(c,ficpar);
-    fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
-    puts(line);
-    fputs(line,ficparo);
-  }
-  ungetc(c,ficpar);
-  
-  matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
-  for(i=1; i <=npar; i++){
-    fscanf(ficpar,"%s",&str);
-    printf("%s",str);
-    fprintf(ficparo,"%s",str);
-    for(j=1; j <=i; j++){
-      fscanf(ficpar," %le",&matcov[i][j]);
-      printf(" %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
-      fprintf(ficparo," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
-    }
-    fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
-    printf("\n");
-    fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
-  }
-  for(i=1; i <=npar; i++)
-    for(j=i+1;j<=npar;j++)
-      matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];
-   
-  printf("\n");
-
-
-    /*-------- data file ----------*/
-    if((ficres =fopen(fileres,"w"))==NULL) {
-      printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileres);goto end;
-    }
-    fprintf(ficres,"#%s\n",version);
-    
-    if((fic=fopen(datafile,"r"))==NULL)    {
-      printf("Problem with datafile: %s\n", datafile);goto end;
-    }
-
-    n= lastobs;
-    severity = vector(1,maxwav);
-    outcome=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);
-    num=ivector(1,n);
-    moisnais=vector(1,n);
-    annais=vector(1,n);
-    moisdc=vector(1,n);
-    andc=vector(1,n);
-    agedc=vector(1,n);
-    cod=ivector(1,n);
-    weight=vector(1,n);
-    for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0; /* Equal weights, 1 by default */
-    mint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);
-    anint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);
-    s=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);
-    adl=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);    
-    tab=ivector(1,NCOVMAX);
-    ncodemax=ivector(1,8);
-
-    i=1;
-    while (fgets(line, MAXLINE, fic) != NULL)    {
-      if ((i >= firstobs) && (i <=lastobs)) {
-	
-	for (j=maxwav;j>=1;j--){
-	  cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); s[j][i]=atoi(strb); 
-	  strcpy(line,stra);
-	  cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); anint[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
-	  cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); mint[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
-	}
-	
-	cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); andc[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
-	cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); moisdc[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
-
-	cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); annais[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
-	cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); moisnais[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
-
-	cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); weight[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
-	for (j=ncov;j>=1;j--){
-	  cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); covar[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
-	} 
-	num[i]=atol(stra);
-	
-	/*if((s[2][i]==2) && (s[3][i]==-1)&&(s[4][i]==9)){
-	  printf("%d %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]),weight[i], (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i])); ij=ij+1;}*/
-
-	i=i+1;
-      }
-    } 
-    /* printf("ii=%d", ij);
-       scanf("%d",i);*/
-  imx=i-1; /* Number of individuals */
-
-  /* for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
-    if ((s[1][i]==3) && (s[2][i]==2)) s[2][i]=3;
-    if ((s[2][i]==3) && (s[3][i]==2)) s[3][i]=3;
-    if ((s[3][i]==3) && (s[4][i]==2)) s[4][i]=3;
-    }
-
-    for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)
-    if (covar[1][i]==0) printf("%d %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]), (weight[i]), (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i]));*/
-
-  /* Calculation of the number of parameter from char model*/
-  Tvar=ivector(1,15); 
-  Tprod=ivector(1,15); 
-  Tvaraff=ivector(1,15); 
-  Tvard=imatrix(1,15,1,2);
-  Tage=ivector(1,15);      
-   
-  if (strlen(model) >1){
-    j=0, j1=0, k1=1, k2=1;
-    j=nbocc(model,'+');
-    j1=nbocc(model,'*');
-    cptcovn=j+1;
-    cptcovprod=j1;
-    
-    
-    strcpy(modelsav,model); 
-    if ((strcmp(model,"age")==0) || (strcmp(model,"age*age")==0)){
-      printf("Error. Non available option model=%s ",model);
-      goto end;
-    }
-    
-    for(i=(j+1); i>=1;i--){
-      cutv(stra,strb,modelsav,'+');
-      if (nbocc(modelsav,'+')==0) strcpy(strb,modelsav); 
-      /*      printf("i=%d a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n",i, stra,strb,modelsav);*/
-      /*scanf("%d",i);*/
-      if (strchr(strb,'*')) {
-	cutv(strd,strc,strb,'*');
-	if (strcmp(strc,"age")==0) {
-	  cptcovprod--;
-	  cutv(strb,stre,strd,'V');
-	  Tvar[i]=atoi(stre);
-	  cptcovage++;
-	    Tage[cptcovage]=i;
-	    /*printf("stre=%s ", stre);*/
-	}
-	else if (strcmp(strd,"age")==0) {
-	  cptcovprod--;
-	  cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V');
-	  Tvar[i]=atoi(stre);
-	  cptcovage++;
-	  Tage[cptcovage]=i;
-	}
-	else {
-	  cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V');
-	  Tvar[i]=ncov+k1;
-	  cutv(strb,strc,strd,'V'); 
-	  Tprod[k1]=i;
-	  Tvard[k1][1]=atoi(strc);
-	  Tvard[k1][2]=atoi(stre);
-	  Tvar[cptcovn+k2]=Tvard[k1][1];
-	  Tvar[cptcovn+k2+1]=Tvard[k1][2]; 
-	  for (k=1; k<=lastobs;k++) 
-	    covar[ncov+k1][k]=covar[atoi(stre)][k]*covar[atoi(strc)][k];
-	  k1++;
-	  k2=k2+2;
-	}
-      }
-      else {
-	/*printf("d=%s c=%s b=%s\n", strd,strc,strb);*/
-       /*  scanf("%d",i);*/
-      cutv(strd,strc,strb,'V');
-      Tvar[i]=atoi(strc);
-      }
-      strcpy(modelsav,stra);  
-      /*printf("a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n", stra,strb,modelsav);
-	scanf("%d",i);*/
-    }
-}
-  
-  /*printf("tvar1=%d tvar2=%d tvar3=%d cptcovage=%d Tage=%d",Tvar[1],Tvar[2],Tvar[3],cptcovage,Tage[1]);
-  printf("cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);
-  scanf("%d ",i);*/
-    fclose(fic);
-
-    /*  if(mle==1){*/
-    if (weightopt != 1) { /* Maximisation without weights*/
-      for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0;
-    }
-    /*-calculation of age at interview from date of interview and age at death -*/
-    agev=matrix(1,maxwav,1,imx);
-
-   for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) 
-     for(m=2; (m<= maxwav); m++)
-       if ((mint[m][i]== 99) && (s[m][i] <= nlstate)){
-	 anint[m][i]=9999;
-	 s[m][i]=-1;
-       }
-    
-    for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {
-      agedc[i]=(moisdc[i]/12.+andc[i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+annais[i]);
-      for(m=1; (m<= maxwav); m++){
-	if(s[m][i] >0){
-	  if (s[m][i] == nlstate+1) {
-	    if(agedc[i]>0)
-	      if(moisdc[i]!=99 && andc[i]!=9999)
-	      agev[m][i]=agedc[i];
-	    else {
-	      if (andc[i]!=9999){
-	      printf("Warning negative age at death: %d line:%d\n",num[i],i);
-	      agev[m][i]=-1;
-	      }
-	    }
-	  }
-	  else if(s[m][i] !=9){ /* Should no more exist */
-	    agev[m][i]=(mint[m][i]/12.+1./24.+anint[m][i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+1./24.+annais[i]);
-	    if(mint[m][i]==99 || anint[m][i]==9999)
-	      agev[m][i]=1;
-	    else if(agev[m][i] <agemin){ 
-	      agemin=agev[m][i];
-	      /*printf(" Min anint[%d][%d]=%.2f annais[%d]=%.2f, agemin=%.2f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], agemin);*/
-	    }
-	    else if(agev[m][i] >agemax){
-	      agemax=agev[m][i];
-	     /* printf(" anint[%d][%d]=%.0f annais[%d]=%.0f, agemax=%.0f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], agemax);*/
-	    }
-	    /*agev[m][i]=anint[m][i]-annais[i];*/
-	    /*	 agev[m][i] = age[i]+2*m;*/
-	  }
-	  else { /* =9 */
-	    agev[m][i]=1;
-	    s[m][i]=-1;
-	  }
-	}
-	else /*= 0 Unknown */
-	  agev[m][i]=1;
-      }
-    
-    }
-    for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {
-      for(m=1; (m<= maxwav); m++){
-	if (s[m][i] > (nlstate+ndeath)) {
-	  printf("Error: Wrong value in nlstate or ndeath\n");	
-	  goto end;
-	}
-      }
-    }
-
-printf("Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx, agemin, agemax);
-
-    free_vector(severity,1,maxwav);
-    free_imatrix(outcome,1,maxwav+1,1,n);
-    free_vector(moisnais,1,n);
-    free_vector(annais,1,n);
-    /* free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);
-       free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n);*/
-    free_vector(moisdc,1,n);
-    free_vector(andc,1,n);
-
-   
-    wav=ivector(1,imx);
-    dh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
-    mw=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
-   
-    /* Concatenates waves */
-      concatwav(wav, dh, mw, s, agedc, agev,  firstpass, lastpass, imx, nlstate, stepm);
-
-
-      Tcode=ivector(1,100);
-      nbcode=imatrix(0,NCOVMAX,0,NCOVMAX); 
-      ncodemax[1]=1;
-      if (cptcovn > 0) tricode(Tvar,nbcode,imx);
-      
-   codtab=imatrix(1,100,1,10);
-   h=0;
-   m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
- 
-   for(k=1;k<=cptcoveff; k++){
-     for(i=1; i <=(m/pow(2,k));i++){
-       for(j=1; j <= ncodemax[k]; j++){
-	 for(cpt=1; cpt <=(m/pow(2,cptcoveff+1-k)); cpt++){
-	   h++;
-	   if (h>m) h=1;codtab[h][k]=j;
-	 } 
-       }
-     }
-   } 
-
-
-   /*for(i=1; i <=m ;i++){ 
-     for(k=1; k <=cptcovn; k++){
-       printf("i=%d k=%d %d %d",i,k,codtab[i][k], cptcoveff);
-     }
-     printf("\n");
-   }
-   scanf("%d",i);*/
-    
-   /* Calculates basic frequencies. Computes observed prevalence at single age
-       and prints on file fileres'p'. */
-
-    
-   
-    pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
-    oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
-    newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
-    savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
-    oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */
-     
-    /* For Powell, parameters are in a vector p[] starting at p[1]
-       so we point p on param[1][1] so that p[1] maps on param[1][1][1] */
-    p=param[1][1]; /* *(*(*(param +1)+1)+0) */
-
-    if(mle==1){
-    mlikeli(ficres,p, npar, ncovmodel, nlstate, ftol, func);
-    }
-    
-    /*--------- results files --------------*/
-    fprintf(ficres,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncov=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncov, nlstate, ndeath, maxwav, mle,weightopt,model);
-  
-
-   jk=1;
-   fprintf(ficres,"# Parameters\n");
-   printf("# Parameters\n");
-   for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
-     for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
-       if (k != i) 
-	 {
-	   printf("%d%d ",i,k);
-	   fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d ",i,k);
-	   for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
-	     printf("%f ",p[jk]);
-	     fprintf(ficres,"%f ",p[jk]);
-	     jk++; 
-	   }
-	   printf("\n");
-	   fprintf(ficres,"\n");
-	 }
-     }
-   }
- if(mle==1){
-    /* Computing hessian and covariance matrix */
-    ftolhess=ftol; /* Usually correct */
-    hesscov(matcov, p, npar, delti, ftolhess, func);
- }
-    fprintf(ficres,"# Scales\n");
-    printf("# Scales\n");
-     for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
-      for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
-	if (j!=i) {
-	  fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d",i,j);
-	  printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
-	  for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
-	    printf(" %.5e",delti[jk]);
-	    fprintf(ficres," %.5e",delti[jk]);
-	    jk++;
-	  }
-	  printf("\n");
-	  fprintf(ficres,"\n");
-	}
-      }
-     }
-    
-    k=1;
-    fprintf(ficres,"# Covariance\n");
-    printf("# Covariance\n");
-    for(i=1;i<=npar;i++){
-      /*  if (k>nlstate) k=1;
-      i1=(i-1)/(ncovmodel*nlstate)+1; 
-      fprintf(ficres,"%s%d%d",alph[k],i1,tab[i]);
-      printf("%s%d%d",alph[k],i1,tab[i]);*/
-      fprintf(ficres,"%3d",i);
-      printf("%3d",i);
-      for(j=1; j<=i;j++){
-	fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[i][j]);
-	printf(" %.5e",matcov[i][j]);
-      }
-      fprintf(ficres,"\n");
-      printf("\n");
-      k++;
-    }
-    
-    while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
-      ungetc(c,ficpar);
-      fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
-      puts(line);
-      fputs(line,ficparo);
-    }
-    ungetc(c,ficpar);
-  
-    fscanf(ficpar,"agemin=%lf agemax=%lf bage=%lf fage=%lf\n",&agemin,&agemax, &bage, &fage);
-    
-    if (fage <= 2) {
-      bage = agemin;
-      fage = agemax;
-    }
-    
-    fprintf(ficres,"# agemin agemax for life expectancy, bage fage (if mle==0 ie no data nor Max likelihood).\n");
-    fprintf(ficres,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f\n",agemin,agemax,bage,fage);
-    fprintf(ficparo,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f\n",agemin,agemax,bage,fage);
- 
-    while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
-    ungetc(c,ficpar);
-    fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
-    puts(line);
-    fputs(line,ficparo);
-  }
-  ungetc(c,ficpar);
-  
-  fscanf(ficpar,"begin-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf end-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mob_average=%d\n",&jprev1, &mprev1,&anprev1,&jprev2, &mprev2,&anprev2,&mobilav);
-  fprintf(ficparo,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mob_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
- fprintf(ficres,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mob_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,mobilav);
-     
-  while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
-    ungetc(c,ficpar);
-    fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
-    puts(line);
-    fputs(line,ficparo);
-  }
-  ungetc(c,ficpar);
- 
-
-   dateprev1=anprev1+mprev1/12.+jprev1/365.;
-   dateprev2=anprev2+mprev2/12.+jprev2/365.;
-
-  fscanf(ficpar,"pop_based=%d\n",&popbased);
-   fprintf(ficparo,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);   
-   fprintf(ficres,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);   
-
-  while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
-    ungetc(c,ficpar);
-    fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
-    puts(line);
-    fputs(line,ficparo);
-  }
-  ungetc(c,ficpar);
-  fscanf(ficpar,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s starting-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf final-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf\n",&popforecast,popfile,&jproj1,&mproj1,&anproj1,&jproj2,&mproj2,&anproj2);
-fprintf(ficparo,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",popforecast,popfile,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2);
-fprintf(ficres,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",popforecast,popfile,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2);
-
- freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,dateprev1,dateprev2);
-
-    
-    /*------------ gnuplot -------------*/
-    /*chdir(pathcd);*/
-    strcpy(optionfilegnuplot,optionfilefiname);
-    strcat(optionfilegnuplot,".plt");
-    if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"w"))==NULL) {
-      printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot);goto end;
-    }
-#ifdef windows
-    fprintf(ficgp,"cd \"%s\" \n",pathc);
-#endif
-m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
-  
- /* 1eme*/
-  for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {
-   for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {
-
-#ifdef windows
-    fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nset ter gif small size 400,300\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"vpl%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",agemin,fage,fileres,k1-1,k1-1);
-#endif
-#ifdef unix
-fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nplot [%.f:%.f] \"vpl%s\" u 1:2 \"\%%lf",agemin,fage,fileres);
-#endif
-
-for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
-  if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
-  else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
-}
-    fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"Stationary prevalence\" w l 0,\"vpl%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+2*$3) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);
-    for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
-  if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
-  else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
-} 
-  fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"95\%% CI\" w l 1,\"vpl%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-2*$3) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1); 
-     for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
-  if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
-  else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
-}  
-     fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 1,\"p%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d) t\"Observed prevalence \" w l 2",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,2+4*(cpt-1));
-#ifdef unix
-fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter gif small size 400,300");
-#endif
-fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"v%s%d%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);
-   }
-  }
-  /*2 eme*/
-
-  for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { 
-    fprintf(ficgp,"set ylabel \"Years\" \nset ter gif small size 400,300\nplot [%.f:%.f] ",agemin,fage);
-    
-    for (i=1; i<= nlstate+1 ; i ++) {
-      k=2*i;
-      fprintf(ficgp,"\"t%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);
-      for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
-  if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
-  else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
-}   
-      if (i== 1) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"TLE\" w l ,");
-      else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"LE in state (%d)\" w l ,",i-1);
-    fprintf(ficgp,"\"t%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-$3*2) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);
-      for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
-	if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
-	else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
-}   
-      fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");
-     fprintf(ficgp,"\"t%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+$3*2) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);
-      for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
-  if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
-  else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
-}   
-      if (i== (nlstate+1)) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0");
-      else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");
-    }
-    fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"e%s%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),k1);
-  }
- 
-  /*3eme*/
-
-  for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { 
-    for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {
-      k=2+nlstate*(cpt-1);
-      fprintf(ficgp,"set ter gif small size 400,300\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d1\" w l",agemin,fage,fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,cpt);
-      for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {
-	fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k+i,cpt,i+1);
-      } 
-      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"exp%s%d%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);
-    }
-  }
- 
-  /* CV preval stat */
-  for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { 
-    for (cpt=1; cpt<nlstate ; cpt ++) {
-      k=3;
-      fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nset ter gif small size 400,300\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"pij%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",agemin,agemax,fileres,k1,k+cpt+1,k+1);
-      for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++)
-	fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+i+1);
-      fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l",cpt,cpt+1);
-      
-      l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;
-      fprintf(ficgp,",\"pij%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",fileres,k1,l+cpt+1,l+1);
-      for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {
-	l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;
-	fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",l+i+1);
-      }
-      fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l\n",cpt+1,cpt+1);   
-      fprintf(ficgp,"set out \"p%s%d%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);
-    } 
-  }  
-
-  /* proba elementaires */
-   for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
-    for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
-      if (k != i) {
-	for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
-	  /*fprintf(ficgp,"%s%1d%1d=%f ",alph[j],i,k,p[jk]);*/
-	  /*fprintf(ficgp,"%s",alph[1]);*/
-	  fprintf(ficgp,"p%d=%f ",jk,p[jk]);
-	  jk++; 
-	  fprintf(ficgp,"\n");
-	}
-      }
-    }
-    }
-
-  for(jk=1; jk <=m; jk++) {
-  fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter gif small size 400,300\nset log y\nplot  [%.f:%.f] ",agemin,agemax);
-   i=1;
-   for(k2=1; k2<=nlstate; k2++) {
-     k3=i;
-     for(k=1; k<=(nlstate+ndeath); k++) {
-       if (k != k2){
-    	fprintf(ficgp," exp(p%d+p%d*x",i,i+1);
-ij=1;
-	for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++) {
-	  if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {
-	    fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);
-	    ij++;
-	  }
-	  else
-	  fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);
-	}
-	  fprintf(ficgp,")/(1");
-	
-	for(k1=1; k1 <=nlstate; k1++){   
-	  fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1);
-ij=1;
-	  for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
-	  if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {
-	    fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);
-	    ij++;
-	  }
-	  else
-	    fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);
-	  }
-	  fprintf(ficgp,")");
-	}
-	fprintf(ficgp,") t \"p%d%d\" ", k2,k);
-	if ((k+k2)!= (nlstate*2+ndeath)) fprintf(ficgp,",");
-	i=i+ncovmodel;
-       }
-     }
-   }
-   fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"pe%s%d.gif\" \nreplot\n\n",strtok(optionfile, "."),jk); 
-  }
-   
-  fclose(ficgp);
-  /* end gnuplot */
-   
-chdir(path);
-   
-    free_ivector(wav,1,imx);
-    free_imatrix(dh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
-    free_imatrix(mw,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);   
-    free_ivector(num,1,n);
-    free_vector(agedc,1,n);
-    /*free_matrix(covar,1,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/
-    fclose(ficparo);
-    fclose(ficres);
-    /*  }*/
-   
-   /*________fin mle=1_________*/
-   
-
-  
-    /* No more information from the sample is required now */
-  /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
-  while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
-    ungetc(c,ficpar);
-    fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
-    puts(line);
-    fputs(line,ficparo);
-  }
-  ungetc(c,ficpar);
-  
-  fscanf(ficpar,"agemin=%lf agemax=%lf bage=%lf fage=%lf\n",&agemin,&agemax, &bage, &fage);
-  printf("agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f\n",agemin,agemax, bage, fage);
-  fprintf(ficparo,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f\n",agemin,agemax,bage,fage);
-/*--------- index.htm --------*/
-
-  strcpy(optionfilehtm,optionfile);
-  strcat(optionfilehtm,".htm");
-  if((fichtm=fopen(optionfilehtm,"w"))==NULL)    {
-    printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtm);goto end;
-  }
-
- fprintf(fichtm,"<body><ul> <font size=\"6\">Imach, Version 0.7 </font> <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> 
-Titre=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>
-Total number of observations=%d <br>
-Interval (in months) between two waves: Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%.2lf<br>
-<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> 
-<li>Outputs files<br><br>\n
-        - Observed prevalence in each state: <a href=\"p%s\">p%s</a> <br>\n
-- Estimated parameters and the covariance matrix: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>
-        - Stationary prevalence in each state: <a href=\"pl%s\">pl%s</a> <br>
-        - Transition probabilities: <a href=\"pij%s\">pij%s</a><br>
-        - Copy of the parameter file: <a href=\"o%s\">o%s</a><br>
-        - Life expectancies by age and initial health status: <a href=\"e%s\">e%s</a> <br>
-        - Variances of life expectancies by age and initial health status: <a href=\"v%s\">v%s</a><br>
-        - Health expectancies with their variances: <a href=\"t%s\">t%s</a> <br>
-        - Standard deviation of stationary prevalences: <a href=\"vpl%s\">vpl%s</a> <br>
-        - Prevalences and population forecasting: <a href=\"f%s\">f%s</a> <br>
-<br>",title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt,model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres);
-
- fprintf(fichtm," <li>Graphs</li><p>");
-
- m=cptcoveff;
- if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
-
- j1=0;
- for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){
-   for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
-       j1++;
-       if (cptcovn > 0) {
-	 fprintf(fichtm,"<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">************ Results for covariates");
-	 for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++) 
-	   fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtab[j1][cpt]]);
-	 fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
-       }
-       fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Probabilities: pe%s%d.gif<br>
-<img src=\"pe%s%d.gif\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),j1,strtok(optionfile, "."),j1);     
-       for(cpt=1; cpt<nlstate;cpt++){
-	 fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Prevalence of disability : p%s%d%d.gif<br>
-<img src=\"p%s%d%d.gif\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,j1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,j1);
-       }
-    for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
-       fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Observed and stationary prevalence (with confident
-interval) in state (%d): v%s%d%d.gif <br>
-<img src=\"v%s%d%d.gif\">",cpt,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,j1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,j1);  
-     }
-     for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
-        fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Health life expectancies by age and initial health state (%d): exp%s%d%d.gif <br>
-<img src=\"exp%s%d%d.gif\">",cpt,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,j1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,j1);
-     }
-     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Total life expectancy by age and
-health expectancies in states (1) and (2): e%s%d.gif<br>
-<img src=\"e%s%d.gif\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),j1,strtok(optionfile, "."),j1);
-fprintf(fichtm,"\n</body>");
-   }
- }
-fclose(fichtm);
-
-  /*--------------- Prevalence limit --------------*/
-  
-  strcpy(filerespl,"pl");
-  strcat(filerespl,fileres);
-  if((ficrespl=fopen(filerespl,"w"))==NULL) {
-    printf("Problem with Prev limit resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);goto end;
-  }
-  printf("Computing prevalence limit: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);
-  fprintf(ficrespl,"#Prevalence limit\n");
-  fprintf(ficrespl,"#Age ");
-  for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrespl,"%d-%d ",i,i);
-  fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");
-  
-  prlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
-  pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
-  oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
-  newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
-  savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
-  oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */
-  k=0;
-  agebase=agemin;
-  agelim=agemax;
-  ftolpl=1.e-10;
-  i1=cptcoveff;
-  if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
-
-  for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
-    for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
-	k=k+1;
-	/*printf("cptcov=%d cptcod=%d codtab=%d nbcode=%d\n",cptcov, cptcod,Tcode[cptcode],codtab[cptcod][cptcov]);*/
-	fprintf(ficrespl,"\n#******");
-	for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
-	  fprintf(ficrespl," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
-	fprintf(ficrespl,"******\n");
-	
-	for (age=agebase; age<=agelim; age++){
-	  prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);
-	  fprintf(ficrespl,"%.0f",age );
-	  for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-	  fprintf(ficrespl," %.5f", prlim[i][i]);
-	  fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");
-	}
-      }
-    }
-  fclose(ficrespl);
-
-  /*------------- h Pij x at various ages ------------*/
-  
-  strcpy(filerespij,"pij");  strcat(filerespij,fileres);
-  if((ficrespij=fopen(filerespij,"w"))==NULL) {
-    printf("Problem with Pij resultfile: %s\n", filerespij);goto end;
-  }
-  printf("Computing pij: result on file '%s' \n", filerespij);
-  
-  stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
-  /*if (stepm<=24) stepsize=2;*/
-
-  agelim=AGESUP;
-  hstepm=stepsize*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
-  hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */ 
-  
-  k=0;
-  for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
-    for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
-      k=k+1;
-	fprintf(ficrespij,"\n#****** ");
-	for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
-	  fprintf(ficrespij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
-	fprintf(ficrespij,"******\n");
-	
-	for (agedeb=fage; agedeb>=bage; agedeb--){ /* If stepm=6 months */
-	  nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */ 
-	  nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */
-	  p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
-	  oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
-	  hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
-	  fprintf(ficrespij,"# Age");
-	  for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-	    for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
-	      fprintf(ficrespij," %1d-%1d",i,j);
-	  fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
-	  for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
-	    fprintf(ficrespij,"%d %.0f %.0f",k,agedeb, agedeb+ h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm );
-	    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-	      for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
-		fprintf(ficrespij," %.5f", p3mat[i][j][h]);
-	    fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
-	  }
-	  free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
-	  fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
-	}
-    }
-  }
-
-  /* varprob(fileres, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, (int) bage, (int) fage,k);*/
-
-  fclose(ficrespij);
-
-  if(stepm == 1) {
-  /*---------- Forecasting ------------------*/
-  calagedate=(anproj1+mproj1/12.+jproj1/365.-dateintmean)*YEARM;
-
-  /*printf("calage= %f", calagedate);*/
-  
-  prevalence(agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,dateprev1,dateprev2, calagedate);
-
-
-  strcpy(fileresf,"f"); 
-  strcat(fileresf,fileres);
-  if((ficresf=fopen(fileresf,"w"))==NULL) {
-    printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);goto end;
-  }
-  printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);
-
-  free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);
-  free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n);
-  free_matrix(agev,1,maxwav,1,imx);
-  /* Mobile average */
-
-  if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
-
-  if (mobilav==1) {
-    mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
-    for (agedeb=bage+3; agedeb<=fage-2; agedeb++)
-      for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-	for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++)
-	  mobaverage[(int)agedeb][i][cptcod]=0.;
-    
-    for (agedeb=bage+4; agedeb<=fage; agedeb++){
-      for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
-	for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){
-	  for (cpt=0;cpt<=4;cpt++){
-	    mobaverage[(int)agedeb-2][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)agedeb-2][i][cptcod]+probs[(int)agedeb-cpt][i][cptcod];
-	  }
-	  mobaverage[(int)agedeb-2][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)agedeb-2][i][cptcod]/5;
-	}
-      }
-    }   
-  }
-
-  stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
-  if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;
-
-  agelim=AGESUP;
-  /*hstepm=stepsize*YEARM; *//* Every year of age */
-  hstepm=1;
-  hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically 2 years, = 2 years/6 months = 4 */ 
-  yp1=modf(dateintmean,&yp);
-  anprojmean=yp;
-  yp2=modf((yp1*12),&yp);
-  mprojmean=yp;
-  yp1=modf((yp2*30.5),&yp);
-  jprojmean=yp;
-  if(jprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;
-  if(mprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;
-
-  fprintf(ficresf,"# Estimated date of observed prevalence: %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean); 
-
-  if (popforecast==1) {
-    if((ficpop=fopen(popfile,"r"))==NULL)    {
-      printf("Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);goto end;
-    } 
-    popage=ivector(0,AGESUP);
-    popeffectif=vector(0,AGESUP);
-    popcount=vector(0,AGESUP);
-
-    i=1;   
-    while ((c=fscanf(ficpop,"%d %lf\n",&popage[i],&popcount[i])) != EOF)
-      {
-	i=i+1;
-      }
-    imx=i;
-    
-    for (i=1; i<imx;i++) popeffectif[popage[i]]=popcount[i];
-  }
-
-  for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
-    for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){
-      k=k+1;
-      fprintf(ficresf,"\n#******");
-      for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
-	fprintf(ficresf," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
-      }
-      fprintf(ficresf,"******\n");
-      fprintf(ficresf,"# StartingAge FinalAge");
-      for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) fprintf(ficresf," P.%d",j);
-      if (popforecast==1)  fprintf(ficresf," [Population]");
-   
-      for (cpt=0; cpt<4;cpt++) { 
-	fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
-	fprintf(ficresf,"\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1+cpt);   
-
-	for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedate %12/12.)); agedeb>=(bage-((int)calagedate %12)/12.); agedeb--){ /* If stepm=6 months */
-	nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); 
-	nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; 
-	/*printf("agedeb=%.lf stepm=%d hstepm=%d nhstepm=%d \n",agedeb,stepm,hstepm,nhstepm);*/
-
-	p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
-	oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
-	hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
-	
-	for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
-	  if (h==(int) (calagedate+YEARM*cpt)) {
-	    fprintf(ficresf,"\n %.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
-	  } 
-	  for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
-	    kk1=0.;kk2=0;
-	    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {	      
-	      if (mobilav==1) 
-		kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];
-	      else {
-		kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agedeb+1)][i][cptcod];
-	        /* fprintf(ficresf," p3=%.3f p=%.3f ", p3mat[i][j][h], probs[(int)(agedeb)+1][i][cptcod]);*/
-	      }
-
-	      if (popforecast==1) kk2=kk1*popeffectif[(int)agedeb];
-	    }
-	 
-	    if (h==(int)(calagedate+12*cpt)){
-	      fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", kk1);
-	     
-	      if (popforecast==1) fprintf(ficresf," [%.f]", kk2);
-	    }
-	  }
-	}
-	/*	free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);*/
-      }
-      }
-    }
-  }
-  /*  if (mobilav==1) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
-  if (popforecast==1) {
-    free_ivector(popage,0,AGESUP);
-    free_vector(popeffectif,0,AGESUP);
-    free_vector(popcount,0,AGESUP);
-  }
-  free_imatrix(s,1,maxwav+1,1,n);
-  free_vector(weight,1,n);*/
-  fclose(ficresf);
-  }/* End forecasting */
-  else{
-    erreur=108;
-    printf("Error %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d\n", erreur, stepm);
-  }
-
-  /*---------- Health expectancies and variances ------------*/
-
-  strcpy(filerest,"t");
-  strcat(filerest,fileres);
-  if((ficrest=fopen(filerest,"w"))==NULL) {
-    printf("Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;
-  }
-  printf("Computing Total LEs with variances: file '%s' \n", filerest); 
-
-
-  strcpy(filerese,"e");
-  strcat(filerese,fileres);
-  if((ficreseij=fopen(filerese,"w"))==NULL) {
-    printf("Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);
-  }
-  printf("Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);
-
- strcpy(fileresv,"v");
-  strcat(fileresv,fileres);
-  if((ficresvij=fopen(fileresv,"w"))==NULL) {
-    printf("Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);
-  }
-  printf("Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);
-
-  k=0;
-  for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
-    for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
-      k=k+1;
-      fprintf(ficrest,"\n#****** ");
-      for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
-	fprintf(ficrest,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
-      fprintf(ficrest,"******\n");
-
-      fprintf(ficreseij,"\n#****** ");
-      for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
-	fprintf(ficreseij,"V%d=%d ",j,nbcode[j][codtab[k][j]]);
-      fprintf(ficreseij,"******\n");
-
-      fprintf(ficresvij,"\n#****** ");
-      for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
-	fprintf(ficresvij,"V%d=%d ",j,nbcode[j][codtab[k][j]]);
-      fprintf(ficresvij,"******\n");
-
-      eij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
-      oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
-      evsij(fileres, eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k);  
-      vareij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
-      oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
-      varevsij(fileres, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k);
-      
-      fprintf(ficrest,"#Total LEs with variances: e.. (std) ");
-      for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrest,"e.%d (std) ",i);
-      fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
-	
-      hf=1;
-      if (stepm >= YEARM) hf=stepm/YEARM;
-      epj=vector(1,nlstate+1);
-      for(age=bage; age <=fage ;age++){
-	prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);
-	if (popbased==1) {
-	  for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
-	    prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][k];
-	}
-	
-	fprintf(ficrest," %.0f",age);
-	for(j=1, epj[nlstate+1]=0.;j <=nlstate;j++){
-	  for(i=1, epj[j]=0.;i <=nlstate;i++) {
-	    epj[j] += prlim[i][i]*hf*eij[i][j][(int)age];
-	  }
-	  epj[nlstate+1] +=epj[j];
-	}
-	for(i=1, vepp=0.;i <=nlstate;i++)
-	  for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++)
-	    vepp += vareij[i][j][(int)age];
-	fprintf(ficrest," %.2f (%.2f)", epj[nlstate+1],hf*sqrt(vepp));
-	for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++){
-	  fprintf(ficrest," %.2f (%.2f)", epj[j],hf*sqrt(vareij[j][j][(int)age]));
-	}
-	fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
-      }
-    }
-  }
-	
-       
-
-
- fclose(ficreseij);
- fclose(ficresvij);
-  fclose(ficrest);
-  fclose(ficpar);
-  free_vector(epj,1,nlstate+1);
-  /*  scanf("%d ",i); */
-
-  /*------- Variance limit prevalence------*/   
-
-strcpy(fileresvpl,"vpl");
-  strcat(fileresvpl,fileres);
-  if((ficresvpl=fopen(fileresvpl,"w"))==NULL) {
-    printf("Problem with variance prev lim resultfile: %s\n", fileresvpl);
-    exit(0);
-  }
-  printf("Computing Variance-covariance of Prevalence limit: file '%s' \n", fileresvpl);
-
- k=0;
- for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
-   for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
-     k=k+1;
-     fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n#****** ");
-     for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
-       fprintf(ficresvpl,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
-     fprintf(ficresvpl,"******\n");
-     
-     varpl=matrix(1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
-     oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
-     varprevlim(fileres, varpl, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k);
-   }
- }
-
-  fclose(ficresvpl);
-
-  /*---------- End : free ----------------*/
-  free_matrix(varpl,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
-  
-  free_ma3x(vareij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
-  free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
-  
-  
-  free_matrix(pmmij,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
-  free_matrix(oldms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
-  free_matrix(newms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
-  free_matrix(savms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
- 
-  free_matrix(matcov,1,npar,1,npar);
-  free_vector(delti,1,npar);
-  
-  free_ma3x(param,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
-
-  if(erreur >0)
-    printf("End of Imach with error %d\n",erreur);
-  else   printf("End of Imach\n");
-  /*  gettimeofday(&end_time, (struct timezone*)0);*/  /* after time */
-  
-  /* printf("Total time was %d Sec. %d uSec.\n", end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec, end_time.tv_usec -start_time.tv_usec);*/
-  /*printf("Total time was %d uSec.\n", total_usecs);*/
-  /*------ End -----------*/
-
-
- end:
-#ifdef windows
-  /* chdir(pathcd);*/
-#endif 
- /*system("wgnuplot graph.plt");*/
- /*system("../gp37mgw/wgnuplot graph.plt");*/
- /*system("cd ../gp37mgw");*/
- /* system("..\\gp37mgw\\wgnuplot graph.plt");*/
- strcpy(plotcmd,GNUPLOTPROGRAM);
- strcat(plotcmd," ");
- strcat(plotcmd,optionfilegnuplot);
- system(plotcmd);
-
-#ifdef windows
-  while (z[0] != 'q') {
-    chdir(path); 
-    printf("\nType e to edit output files, c to start again, and q for exiting: ");
-    scanf("%s",z);
-    if (z[0] == 'c') system("./imach");
-    else if (z[0] == 'e') {
-      chdir(path);
-      system(optionfilehtm);
-    }
-    else if (z[0] == 'q') exit(0);
-  }
-#endif 
-}
-
-
+/* $Id: imach.c,v 1.56 2002/07/24 17:28:25 lievre Exp $
+   Interpolated Markov Chain
+
+  Short summary of the programme:
+  
+  This program computes Healthy Life Expectancies from
+  cross-longitudinal data. Cross-longitudinal data consist in: -1- a
+  first survey ("cross") where individuals from different ages are
+  interviewed on their health status or degree of disability (in the
+  case of a health survey which is our main interest) -2- at least a
+  second wave of interviews ("longitudinal") which measure each change
+  (if any) in individual health status.  Health expectancies are
+  computed from the time spent in each health state according to a
+  model. More health states you consider, more time is necessary to reach the
+  Maximum Likelihood of the parameters involved in the model.  The
+  simplest model is the multinomial logistic model where pij is the
+  probability to be observed in state j at the second wave
+  conditional to be observed in state i at the first wave. Therefore
+  the model is: log(pij/pii)= aij + bij*age+ cij*sex + etc , where
+  'age' is age and 'sex' is a covariate. If you want to have a more
+  complex model than "constant and age", you should modify the program
+  where the markup *Covariates have to be included here again* invites
+  you to do it.  More covariates you add, slower the
+  convergence.
+
+  The advantage of this computer programme, compared to a simple
+  multinomial logistic model, is clear when the delay between waves is not
+  identical for each individual. Also, if a individual missed an
+  intermediate interview, the information is lost, but taken into
+  account using an interpolation or extrapolation.  
+
+  hPijx is the probability to be observed in state i at age x+h
+  conditional to the observed state i at age x. The delay 'h' can be
+  split into an exact number (nh*stepm) of unobserved intermediate
+  states. This elementary transition (by month or quarter trimester,
+  semester or year) is model as a multinomial logistic.  The hPx
+  matrix is simply the matrix product of nh*stepm elementary matrices
+  and the contribution of each individual to the likelihood is simply
+  hPijx.
+
+  Also this programme outputs the covariance matrix of the parameters but also
+  of the life expectancies. It also computes the stable prevalence. 
+  
+  Authors: Nicolas Brouard (brouard@ined.fr) and Agnès Lièvre (lievre@ined.fr).
+           Institut national d'études démographiques, Paris.
+  This software have been partly granted by Euro-REVES, a concerted action
+  from the European Union.
+  It is copyrighted identically to a GNU software product, ie programme and
+  software can be distributed freely for non commercial use. Latest version
+  can be accessed at http://euroreves.ined.fr/imach .
+  **********************************************************************/
+ 
+#include <math.h>
+#include <stdio.h>
+#include <stdlib.h>
+#include <unistd.h>
+
+#define MAXLINE 256
+#define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "gnuplot"
+/*#define GNUPLOTPROGRAM "..\\gp37mgw\\wgnuplot"*/
+#define FILENAMELENGTH 80
+/*#define DEBUG*/
+#define windows
+#define	GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH		-1	/* empty path */
+#define	GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD		-2	/* cannot get cwd */
+
+#define MAXPARM 30 /* Maximum number of parameters for the optimization */
+#define NPARMAX 64 /* (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel */
+
+#define NINTERVMAX 8
+#define NLSTATEMAX 8 /* Maximum number of live states (for func) */
+#define NDEATHMAX 8 /* Maximum number of dead states (for func) */
+#define NCOVMAX 8 /* Maximum number of covariates */
+#define MAXN 20000
+#define YEARM 12. /* Number of months per year */
+#define AGESUP 130
+#define AGEBASE 40
+#ifdef windows
+#define DIRSEPARATOR '\\'
+#define ODIRSEPARATOR '/'
+#else
+#define DIRSEPARATOR '/'
+#define ODIRSEPARATOR '\\'
+#endif
+
+char version[80]="Imach version 0.8k, July 2002, INED-EUROREVES ";
+int erreur; /* Error number */
+int nvar;
+int cptcovn=0, cptcovage=0, cptcoveff=0,cptcov;
+int npar=NPARMAX;
+int nlstate=2; /* Number of live states */
+int ndeath=1; /* Number of dead states */
+int ncovmodel, ncovcol;     /* Total number of covariables including constant a12*1 +b12*x ncovmodel=2 */
+int popbased=0;
+
+int *wav; /* Number of waves for this individuual 0 is possible */
+int maxwav; /* Maxim number of waves */
+int jmin, jmax; /* min, max spacing between 2 waves */
+int mle, weightopt;
+int **mw; /* mw[mi][i] is number of the mi wave for this individual */
+int **dh; /* dh[mi][i] is number of steps between mi,mi+1 for this individual */
+double jmean; /* Mean space between 2 waves */
+double **oldm, **newm, **savm; /* Working pointers to matrices */
+double **oldms, **newms, **savms; /* Fixed working pointers to matrices */
+FILE *fic,*ficpar, *ficparo,*ficres,  *ficrespl, *ficrespij, *ficrest,*ficresf,*ficrespop;
+FILE *ficlog;
+FILE *ficgp,*ficresprob,*ficpop, *ficresprobcov, *ficresprobcor;
+FILE *ficresprobmorprev;
+FILE *fichtm; /* Html File */
+FILE *ficreseij;
+char filerese[FILENAMELENGTH];
+FILE  *ficresvij;
+char fileresv[FILENAMELENGTH];
+FILE  *ficresvpl;
+char fileresvpl[FILENAMELENGTH];
+char title[MAXLINE];
+char optionfile[FILENAMELENGTH], datafile[FILENAMELENGTH],  filerespl[FILENAMELENGTH];
+char optionfilext[10], optionfilefiname[FILENAMELENGTH], plotcmd[FILENAMELENGTH];
+
+char fileres[FILENAMELENGTH], filerespij[FILENAMELENGTH], filereso[FILENAMELENGTH], rfileres[FILENAMELENGTH];
+char filelog[FILENAMELENGTH]; /* Log file */
+char filerest[FILENAMELENGTH];
+char fileregp[FILENAMELENGTH];
+char popfile[FILENAMELENGTH];
+
+char optionfilegnuplot[FILENAMELENGTH], optionfilehtm[FILENAMELENGTH];
+
+#define NR_END 1
+#define FREE_ARG char*
+#define FTOL 1.0e-10
+
+#define NRANSI 
+#define ITMAX 200 
+
+#define TOL 2.0e-4 
+
+#define CGOLD 0.3819660 
+#define ZEPS 1.0e-10 
+#define SHFT(a,b,c,d) (a)=(b);(b)=(c);(c)=(d); 
+
+#define GOLD 1.618034 
+#define GLIMIT 100.0 
+#define TINY 1.0e-20 
+
+static double maxarg1,maxarg2;
+#define FMAX(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)>(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))
+#define FMIN(a,b) (maxarg1=(a),maxarg2=(b),(maxarg1)<(maxarg2)? (maxarg1):(maxarg2))
+  
+#define SIGN(a,b) ((b)>0.0 ? fabs(a) : -fabs(a))
+#define rint(a) floor(a+0.5)
+
+static double sqrarg;
+#define SQR(a) ((sqrarg=(a)) == 0.0 ? 0.0 :sqrarg*sqrarg)
+#define SWAP(a,b) {temp=(a);(a)=(b);(b)=temp;} 
+
+int imx; 
+int stepm;
+/* Stepm, step in month: minimum step interpolation*/
+
+int estepm;
+/* Estepm, step in month to interpolate survival function in order to approximate Life Expectancy*/
+
+int m,nb;
+int *num, firstpass=0, lastpass=4,*cod, *ncodemax, *Tage;
+double **agev,*moisnais, *annais, *moisdc, *andc,**mint, **anint;
+double **pmmij, ***probs;
+double dateintmean=0;
+
+double *weight;
+int **s; /* Status */
+double *agedc, **covar, idx;
+int **nbcode, *Tcode, *Tvar, **codtab, **Tvard, *Tprod, cptcovprod, *Tvaraff;
+
+double ftol=FTOL; /* Tolerance for computing Max Likelihood */
+double ftolhess; /* Tolerance for computing hessian */
+
+/**************** split *************************/
+static	int split( char *path, char *dirc, char *name, char *ext, char *finame )
+{
+   char	*s;				/* pointer */
+   int	l1, l2;				/* length counters */
+
+   l1 = strlen( path );			/* length of path */
+   if ( l1 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );
+   s= strrchr( path, DIRSEPARATOR );		/* find last / */
+   if ( s == NULL ) {			/* no directory, so use current */
+     /*if(strrchr(path, ODIRSEPARATOR )==NULL)
+       printf("Warning you should use %s as a separator\n",DIRSEPARATOR);*/
+#if	defined(__bsd__)		/* get current working directory */
+      extern char	*getwd( );
+
+      if ( getwd( dirc ) == NULL ) {
+#else
+      extern char	*getcwd( );
+
+      if ( getcwd( dirc, FILENAME_MAX ) == NULL ) {
+#endif
+         return( GLOCK_ERROR_GETCWD );
+      }
+      strcpy( name, path );		/* we've got it */
+   } else {				/* strip direcotry from path */
+      s++;				/* after this, the filename */
+      l2 = strlen( s );			/* length of filename */
+      if ( l2 == 0 ) return( GLOCK_ERROR_NOPATH );
+      strcpy( name, s );		/* save file name */
+      strncpy( dirc, path, l1 - l2 );	/* now the directory */
+      dirc[l1-l2] = 0;			/* add zero */
+   }
+   l1 = strlen( dirc );			/* length of directory */
+#ifdef windows
+   if ( dirc[l1-1] != '\\' ) { dirc[l1] = '\\'; dirc[l1+1] = 0; }
+#else
+   if ( dirc[l1-1] != '/' ) { dirc[l1] = '/'; dirc[l1+1] = 0; }
+#endif
+   s = strrchr( name, '.' );		/* find last / */
+   s++;
+   strcpy(ext,s);			/* save extension */
+   l1= strlen( name);
+   l2= strlen( s)+1;
+   strncpy( finame, name, l1-l2);
+   finame[l1-l2]= 0;
+   return( 0 );				/* we're done */
+}
+
+
+/******************************************/
+
+void replace(char *s, char*t)
+{
+  int i;
+  int lg=20;
+  i=0;
+  lg=strlen(t);
+  for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {
+    (s[i] = t[i]);
+    if (t[i]== '\\') s[i]='/';
+  }
+}
+
+int nbocc(char *s, char occ)
+{
+  int i,j=0;
+  int lg=20;
+  i=0;
+  lg=strlen(s);
+  for(i=0; i<= lg; i++) {
+  if  (s[i] == occ ) j++;
+  }
+  return j;
+}
+
+void cutv(char *u,char *v, char*t, char occ)
+{
+  /* cuts string t into u and v where u is ended by char occ excluding it
+     and v is after occ excluding it too : ex cutv(u,v,"abcdef2ghi2j",2)
+     gives u="abcedf" and v="ghi2j" */
+  int i,lg,j,p=0;
+  i=0;
+  for(j=0; j<=strlen(t)-1; j++) {
+    if((t[j]!= occ) && (t[j+1]== occ)) p=j+1;
+  }
+
+  lg=strlen(t);
+  for(j=0; j<p; j++) {
+    (u[j] = t[j]);
+  }
+     u[p]='\0';
+
+   for(j=0; j<= lg; j++) {
+    if (j>=(p+1))(v[j-p-1] = t[j]);
+  }
+}
+
+/********************** nrerror ********************/
+
+void nrerror(char error_text[])
+{
+  fprintf(stderr,"ERREUR ...\n");
+  fprintf(stderr,"%s\n",error_text);
+  exit(1);
+}
+/*********************** vector *******************/
+double *vector(int nl, int nh)
+{
+  double *v;
+  v=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
+  if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in vector");
+  return v-nl+NR_END;
+}
+
+/************************ free vector ******************/
+void free_vector(double*v, int nl, int nh)
+{
+  free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
+}
+
+/************************ivector *******************************/
+int *ivector(long nl,long nh)
+{
+  int *v;
+  v=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nh-nl+1+NR_END)*sizeof(int)));
+  if (!v) nrerror("allocation failure in ivector");
+  return v-nl+NR_END;
+}
+
+/******************free ivector **************************/
+void free_ivector(int *v, long nl, long nh)
+{
+  free((FREE_ARG)(v+nl-NR_END));
+}
+
+/******************* imatrix *******************************/
+int **imatrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch) 
+     /* allocate a int matrix with subscript range m[nrl..nrh][ncl..nch] */ 
+{ 
+  long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1,ncol=nch-ncl+1; 
+  int **m; 
+  
+  /* allocate pointers to rows */ 
+  m=(int **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(int*))); 
+  if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()"); 
+  m += NR_END; 
+  m -= nrl; 
+  
+  
+  /* allocate rows and set pointers to them */ 
+  m[nrl]=(int *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(int))); 
+  if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()"); 
+  m[nrl] += NR_END; 
+  m[nrl] -= ncl; 
+  
+  for(i=nrl+1;i<=nrh;i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol; 
+  
+  /* return pointer to array of pointers to rows */ 
+  return m; 
+} 
+
+/****************** free_imatrix *************************/
+void free_imatrix(m,nrl,nrh,ncl,nch)
+      int **m;
+      long nch,ncl,nrh,nrl; 
+     /* free an int matrix allocated by imatrix() */ 
+{ 
+  free((FREE_ARG) (m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END)); 
+  free((FREE_ARG) (m+nrl-NR_END)); 
+} 
+
+/******************* matrix *******************************/
+double **matrix(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)
+{
+  long i, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1;
+  double **m;
+
+  m=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));
+  if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");
+  m += NR_END;
+  m -= nrl;
+
+  m[nrl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
+  if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");
+  m[nrl] += NR_END;
+  m[nrl] -= ncl;
+
+  for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;
+  return m;
+}
+
+/*************************free matrix ************************/
+void free_matrix(double **m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch)
+{
+  free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));
+  free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));
+}
+
+/******************* ma3x *******************************/
+double ***ma3x(long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long nll, long nlh)
+{
+  long i, j, nrow=nrh-nrl+1, ncol=nch-ncl+1, nlay=nlh-nll+1;
+  double ***m;
+
+  m=(double ***) malloc((size_t)((nrow+NR_END)*sizeof(double*)));
+  if (!m) nrerror("allocation failure 1 in matrix()");
+  m += NR_END;
+  m -= nrl;
+
+  m[nrl]=(double **) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
+  if (!m[nrl]) nrerror("allocation failure 2 in matrix()");
+  m[nrl] += NR_END;
+  m[nrl] -= ncl;
+
+  for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) m[i]=m[i-1]+ncol;
+
+  m[nrl][ncl]=(double *) malloc((size_t)((nrow*ncol*nlay+NR_END)*sizeof(double)));
+  if (!m[nrl][ncl]) nrerror("allocation failure 3 in matrix()");
+  m[nrl][ncl] += NR_END;
+  m[nrl][ncl] -= nll;
+  for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++) 
+    m[nrl][j]=m[nrl][j-1]+nlay;
+  
+  for (i=nrl+1; i<=nrh; i++) {
+    m[i][ncl]=m[i-1l][ncl]+ncol*nlay;
+    for (j=ncl+1; j<=nch; j++) 
+      m[i][j]=m[i][j-1]+nlay;
+  }
+  return m;
+}
+
+/*************************free ma3x ************************/
+void free_ma3x(double ***m, long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch,long nll, long nlh)
+{
+  free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl][ncl]+ nll-NR_END));
+  free((FREE_ARG)(m[nrl]+ncl-NR_END));
+  free((FREE_ARG)(m+nrl-NR_END));
+}
+
+/***************** f1dim *************************/
+extern int ncom; 
+extern double *pcom,*xicom;
+extern double (*nrfunc)(double []); 
+ 
+double f1dim(double x) 
+{ 
+  int j; 
+  double f;
+  double *xt; 
+ 
+  xt=vector(1,ncom); 
+  for (j=1;j<=ncom;j++) xt[j]=pcom[j]+x*xicom[j]; 
+  f=(*nrfunc)(xt); 
+  free_vector(xt,1,ncom); 
+  return f; 
+} 
+
+/*****************brent *************************/
+double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx, double (*f)(double), double tol, 	double *xmin) 
+{ 
+  int iter; 
+  double a,b,d,etemp;
+  double fu,fv,fw,fx;
+  double ftemp;
+  double p,q,r,tol1,tol2,u,v,w,x,xm; 
+  double e=0.0; 
+ 
+  a=(ax < cx ? ax : cx); 
+  b=(ax > cx ? ax : cx); 
+  x=w=v=bx; 
+  fw=fv=fx=(*f)(x); 
+  for (iter=1;iter<=ITMAX;iter++) { 
+    xm=0.5*(a+b); 
+    tol2=2.0*(tol1=tol*fabs(x)+ZEPS); 
+    /*		if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret)))*/
+    printf(".");fflush(stdout);
+    fprintf(ficlog,".");fflush(ficlog);
+#ifdef DEBUG
+    printf("br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);
+    fprintf(ficlog,"br %d,x=%.10e xm=%.10e b=%.10e a=%.10e tol=%.10e tol1=%.10e tol2=%.10e x-xm=%.10e fx=%.12e fu=%.12e,fw=%.12e,ftemp=%.12e,ftol=%.12e\n",iter,x,xm,b,a,tol,tol1,tol2,(x-xm),fx,fu,fw,ftemp,ftol);
+    /*		if ((fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a)))||(2.0*fabs(fu-ftemp) <= ftol*1.e-2*(fabs(fu)+fabs(ftemp)))) { */
+#endif
+    if (fabs(x-xm) <= (tol2-0.5*(b-a))){ 
+      *xmin=x; 
+      return fx; 
+    } 
+    ftemp=fu;
+    if (fabs(e) > tol1) { 
+      r=(x-w)*(fx-fv); 
+      q=(x-v)*(fx-fw); 
+      p=(x-v)*q-(x-w)*r; 
+      q=2.0*(q-r); 
+      if (q > 0.0) p = -p; 
+      q=fabs(q); 
+      etemp=e; 
+      e=d; 
+      if (fabs(p) >= fabs(0.5*q*etemp) || p <= q*(a-x) || p >= q*(b-x)) 
+	d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x)); 
+      else { 
+	d=p/q; 
+	u=x+d; 
+	if (u-a < tol2 || b-u < tol2) 
+	  d=SIGN(tol1,xm-x); 
+      } 
+    } else { 
+      d=CGOLD*(e=(x >= xm ? a-x : b-x)); 
+    } 
+    u=(fabs(d) >= tol1 ? x+d : x+SIGN(tol1,d)); 
+    fu=(*f)(u); 
+    if (fu <= fx) { 
+      if (u >= x) a=x; else b=x; 
+      SHFT(v,w,x,u) 
+	SHFT(fv,fw,fx,fu) 
+	} else { 
+	  if (u < x) a=u; else b=u; 
+	  if (fu <= fw || w == x) { 
+	    v=w; 
+	    w=u; 
+	    fv=fw; 
+	    fw=fu; 
+	  } else if (fu <= fv || v == x || v == w) { 
+	    v=u; 
+	    fv=fu; 
+	  } 
+	} 
+  } 
+  nrerror("Too many iterations in brent"); 
+  *xmin=x; 
+  return fx; 
+} 
+
+/****************** mnbrak ***********************/
+
+void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb, double *fc, 
+	    double (*func)(double)) 
+{ 
+  double ulim,u,r,q, dum;
+  double fu; 
+ 
+  *fa=(*func)(*ax); 
+  *fb=(*func)(*bx); 
+  if (*fb > *fa) { 
+    SHFT(dum,*ax,*bx,dum) 
+      SHFT(dum,*fb,*fa,dum) 
+      } 
+  *cx=(*bx)+GOLD*(*bx-*ax); 
+  *fc=(*func)(*cx); 
+  while (*fb > *fc) { 
+    r=(*bx-*ax)*(*fb-*fc); 
+    q=(*bx-*cx)*(*fb-*fa); 
+    u=(*bx)-((*bx-*cx)*q-(*bx-*ax)*r)/ 
+      (2.0*SIGN(FMAX(fabs(q-r),TINY),q-r)); 
+    ulim=(*bx)+GLIMIT*(*cx-*bx); 
+    if ((*bx-u)*(u-*cx) > 0.0) { 
+      fu=(*func)(u); 
+    } else if ((*cx-u)*(u-ulim) > 0.0) { 
+      fu=(*func)(u); 
+      if (fu < *fc) { 
+	SHFT(*bx,*cx,u,*cx+GOLD*(*cx-*bx)) 
+	  SHFT(*fb,*fc,fu,(*func)(u)) 
+	  } 
+    } else if ((u-ulim)*(ulim-*cx) >= 0.0) { 
+      u=ulim; 
+      fu=(*func)(u); 
+    } else { 
+      u=(*cx)+GOLD*(*cx-*bx); 
+      fu=(*func)(u); 
+    } 
+    SHFT(*ax,*bx,*cx,u) 
+      SHFT(*fa,*fb,*fc,fu) 
+      } 
+} 
+
+/*************** linmin ************************/
+
+int ncom; 
+double *pcom,*xicom;
+double (*nrfunc)(double []); 
+ 
+void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret,double (*func)(double [])) 
+{ 
+  double brent(double ax, double bx, double cx, 
+	       double (*f)(double), double tol, double *xmin); 
+  double f1dim(double x); 
+  void mnbrak(double *ax, double *bx, double *cx, double *fa, double *fb, 
+	      double *fc, double (*func)(double)); 
+  int j; 
+  double xx,xmin,bx,ax; 
+  double fx,fb,fa;
+ 
+  ncom=n; 
+  pcom=vector(1,n); 
+  xicom=vector(1,n); 
+  nrfunc=func; 
+  for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
+    pcom[j]=p[j]; 
+    xicom[j]=xi[j]; 
+  } 
+  ax=0.0; 
+  xx=1.0; 
+  mnbrak(&ax,&xx,&bx,&fa,&fx,&fb,f1dim); 
+  *fret=brent(ax,xx,bx,f1dim,TOL,&xmin); 
+#ifdef DEBUG
+  printf("retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);
+  fprintf(ficlog,"retour brent fret=%.12e xmin=%.12e\n",*fret,xmin);
+#endif
+  for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
+    xi[j] *= xmin; 
+    p[j] += xi[j]; 
+  } 
+  free_vector(xicom,1,n); 
+  free_vector(pcom,1,n); 
+} 
+
+/*************** powell ************************/
+void powell(double p[], double **xi, int n, double ftol, int *iter, double *fret, 
+	    double (*func)(double [])) 
+{ 
+  void linmin(double p[], double xi[], int n, double *fret, 
+	      double (*func)(double [])); 
+  int i,ibig,j; 
+  double del,t,*pt,*ptt,*xit;
+  double fp,fptt;
+  double *xits;
+  pt=vector(1,n); 
+  ptt=vector(1,n); 
+  xit=vector(1,n); 
+  xits=vector(1,n); 
+  *fret=(*func)(p); 
+  for (j=1;j<=n;j++) pt[j]=p[j]; 
+  for (*iter=1;;++(*iter)) { 
+    fp=(*fret); 
+    ibig=0; 
+    del=0.0; 
+    printf("\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f",*iter,*fret);
+    fprintf(ficlog,"\nPowell iter=%d -2*LL=%.12f",*iter,*fret);
+    for (i=1;i<=n;i++) 
+      printf(" %d %.12f",i, p[i]);
+    fprintf(ficlog," %d %.12f",i, p[i]);
+    printf("\n");
+    fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+    for (i=1;i<=n;i++) { 
+      for (j=1;j<=n;j++) xit[j]=xi[j][i]; 
+      fptt=(*fret); 
+#ifdef DEBUG
+      printf("fret=%lf \n",*fret);
+      fprintf(ficlog,"fret=%lf \n",*fret);
+#endif
+      printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);
+      fprintf(ficlog,"%d",i);fflush(ficlog);
+      linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func); 
+      if (fabs(fptt-(*fret)) > del) { 
+	del=fabs(fptt-(*fret)); 
+	ibig=i; 
+      } 
+#ifdef DEBUG
+      printf("%d %.12e",i,(*fret));
+      fprintf(ficlog,"%d %.12e",i,(*fret));
+      for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
+	xits[j]=FMAX(fabs(p[j]-pt[j]),1.e-5);
+	printf(" x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);
+	fprintf(ficlog," x(%d)=%.12e",j,xit[j]);
+      }
+      for(j=1;j<=n;j++) {
+	printf(" p=%.12e",p[j]);
+	fprintf(ficlog," p=%.12e",p[j]);
+      }
+      printf("\n");
+      fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+#endif
+    } 
+    if (2.0*fabs(fp-(*fret)) <= ftol*(fabs(fp)+fabs(*fret))) {
+#ifdef DEBUG
+      int k[2],l;
+      k[0]=1;
+      k[1]=-1;
+      printf("Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));
+      fprintf(ficlog,"Max: %.12e",(*func)(p));
+      for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
+	printf(" %.12e",p[j]);
+	fprintf(ficlog," %.12e",p[j]);
+      }
+      printf("\n");
+      fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+      for(l=0;l<=1;l++) {
+	for (j=1;j<=n;j++) {
+	  ptt[j]=p[j]+(p[j]-pt[j])*k[l];
+	  printf("l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);
+	  fprintf(ficlog,"l=%d j=%d ptt=%.12e, xits=%.12e, p=%.12e, xit=%.12e", l,j,ptt[j],xits[j],p[j],xit[j]);
+	}
+	printf("func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));
+	fprintf(ficlog,"func(ptt)=%.12e, deriv=%.12e\n",(*func)(ptt),(ptt[j]-p[j])/((*func)(ptt)-(*func)(p)));
+      }
+#endif
+
+
+      free_vector(xit,1,n); 
+      free_vector(xits,1,n); 
+      free_vector(ptt,1,n); 
+      free_vector(pt,1,n); 
+      return; 
+    } 
+    if (*iter == ITMAX) nrerror("powell exceeding maximum iterations."); 
+    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
+      ptt[j]=2.0*p[j]-pt[j]; 
+      xit[j]=p[j]-pt[j]; 
+      pt[j]=p[j]; 
+    } 
+    fptt=(*func)(ptt); 
+    if (fptt < fp) { 
+      t=2.0*(fp-2.0*(*fret)+fptt)*SQR(fp-(*fret)-del)-del*SQR(fp-fptt); 
+      if (t < 0.0) { 
+	linmin(p,xit,n,fret,func); 
+	for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
+	  xi[j][ibig]=xi[j][n]; 
+	  xi[j][n]=xit[j]; 
+	}
+#ifdef DEBUG
+	printf("Direction changed  last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);
+	fprintf(ficlog,"Direction changed  last moved %d in place of ibig=%d, new last is the average:\n",n,ibig);
+	for(j=1;j<=n;j++){
+	  printf(" %.12e",xit[j]);
+	  fprintf(ficlog," %.12e",xit[j]);
+	}
+	printf("\n");
+	fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+#endif
+      }
+    } 
+  } 
+} 
+
+/**** Prevalence limit (stable prevalence)  ****************/
+
+double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double x[], double age, double **oldm, double **savm, double ftolpl, int ij)
+{
+  /* Computes the prevalence limit in each live state at age x by left multiplying the unit
+     matrix by transitions matrix until convergence is reached */
+
+  int i, ii,j,k;
+  double min, max, maxmin, maxmax,sumnew=0.;
+  double **matprod2();
+  double **out, cov[NCOVMAX], **pmij();
+  double **newm;
+  double agefin, delaymax=50 ; /* Max number of years to converge */
+
+  for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
+    for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+      oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
+    }
+
+   cov[1]=1.;
+ 
+ /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */
+  for(agefin=age-stepm/YEARM; agefin>=age-delaymax; agefin=agefin-stepm/YEARM){
+    newm=savm;
+    /* Covariates have to be included here again */
+     cov[2]=agefin;
+  
+      for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {
+	cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];
+	/*	printf("ij=%d k=%d Tvar[k]=%d nbcode=%d cov=%lf codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]=%d \n",ij,k, Tvar[k],nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]],cov[2+k], codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]);*/
+      }
+      for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];
+      for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)
+	cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];
+
+      /*printf("ij=%d cptcovprod=%d tvar=%d ", ij, cptcovprod, Tvar[1]);*/
+      /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf cov[4]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3],cov[4]);*/
+      /*printf("ij=%d cov[3]=%lf \n",ij, cov[3]);*/
+    out=matprod2(newm, pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate),1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, oldm);
+
+    savm=oldm;
+    oldm=newm;
+    maxmax=0.;
+    for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++){
+      min=1.;
+      max=0.;
+      for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++) {
+	sumnew=0;
+	for(k=1; k<=ndeath; k++) sumnew+=newm[i][nlstate+k];
+	prlim[i][j]= newm[i][j]/(1-sumnew);
+	max=FMAX(max,prlim[i][j]);
+	min=FMIN(min,prlim[i][j]);
+      }
+      maxmin=max-min;
+      maxmax=FMAX(maxmax,maxmin);
+    }
+    if(maxmax < ftolpl){
+      return prlim;
+    }
+  }
+}
+
+/*************** transition probabilities ***************/ 
+
+double **pmij(double **ps, double *cov, int ncovmodel, double *x, int nlstate )
+{
+  double s1, s2;
+  /*double t34;*/
+  int i,j,j1, nc, ii, jj;
+
+    for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
+    for(j=1; j<i;j++){
+      for (nc=1, s2=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
+	/*s2 += param[i][j][nc]*cov[nc];*/
+	s2 += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-1)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
+	/*printf("Int j<i s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e\n",s1,s2);*/
+      }
+      ps[i][j]=s2;
+      /*printf("s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e\n",s1,s2);*/
+    }
+    for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+      for (nc=1, s2=0.;nc <=ncovmodel; nc++){
+	s2 += x[(i-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel+(j-2)*ncovmodel+nc+(i-1)*(ndeath-1)*ncovmodel]*cov[nc];
+	/*printf("Int j>i s1=%.17e, s2=%.17e %lx %lx\n",s1,s2,s1,s2);*/
+      }
+      ps[i][j]=s2;
+    }
+  }
+    /*ps[3][2]=1;*/
+
+  for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++){
+     s1=0;
+    for(j=1; j<i; j++)
+      s1+=exp(ps[i][j]);
+    for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)
+      s1+=exp(ps[i][j]);
+    ps[i][i]=1./(s1+1.);
+    for(j=1; j<i; j++)
+      ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
+    for(j=i+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath; j++)
+      ps[i][j]= exp(ps[i][j])*ps[i][i];
+    /* ps[i][nlstate+1]=1.-s1- ps[i][i];*/ /* Sum should be 1 */
+  } /* end i */
+
+  for(ii=nlstate+1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){
+    for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
+      ps[ii][jj]=0;
+      ps[ii][ii]=1;
+    }
+  }
+
+
+  /*   for(ii=1; ii<= nlstate+ndeath; ii++){
+    for(jj=1; jj<= nlstate+ndeath; jj++){
+     printf("%lf ",ps[ii][jj]);
+   }
+    printf("\n ");
+    }
+    printf("\n ");printf("%lf ",cov[2]);*/
+/*
+  for(i=1; i<= npar; i++) printf("%f ",x[i]);
+  goto end;*/
+    return ps;
+}
+
+/**************** Product of 2 matrices ******************/
+
+double **matprod2(double **out, double **in,long nrl, long nrh, long ncl, long nch, long ncolol, long ncoloh, double **b)
+{
+  /* Computes the matrix product of in(1,nrh-nrl+1)(1,nch-ncl+1) times
+     b(1,nch-ncl+1)(1,ncoloh-ncolol+1) into out(...) */
+  /* in, b, out are matrice of pointers which should have been initialized 
+     before: only the contents of out is modified. The function returns
+     a pointer to pointers identical to out */
+  long i, j, k;
+  for(i=nrl; i<= nrh; i++)
+    for(k=ncolol; k<=ncoloh; k++)
+      for(j=ncl,out[i][k]=0.; j<=nch; j++)
+	out[i][k] +=in[i][j]*b[j][k];
+
+  return out;
+}
+
+
+/************* Higher Matrix Product ***************/
+
+double ***hpxij(double ***po, int nhstepm, double age, int hstepm, double *x, int nlstate, int stepm, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij )
+{
+  /* Computes the transition matrix starting at age 'age' over 'nhstepm*hstepm*stepm' month 
+     duration (i.e. until
+     age (in years)  age+nhstepm*stepm/12) by multiplying nhstepm*hstepm matrices. 
+     Output is stored in matrix po[i][j][h] for h every 'hstepm' step 
+     (typically every 2 years instead of every month which is too big).
+     Model is determined by parameters x and covariates have to be 
+     included manually here. 
+
+     */
+
+  int i, j, d, h, k;
+  double **out, cov[NCOVMAX];
+  double **newm;
+
+  /* Hstepm could be zero and should return the unit matrix */
+  for (i=1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)
+    for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+      oldm[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
+      po[i][j][0]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
+    }
+  /* Even if hstepm = 1, at least one multiplication by the unit matrix */
+  for(h=1; h <=nhstepm; h++){
+    for(d=1; d <=hstepm; d++){
+      newm=savm;
+      /* Covariates have to be included here again */
+      cov[1]=1.;
+      cov[2]=age+((h-1)*hstepm + (d-1))*stepm/YEARM;
+      for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[ij][Tvar[k]]];
+      for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++)
+	cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];
+      for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)
+	cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];
+
+
+      /*printf("hxi cptcov=%d cptcode=%d\n",cptcov,cptcode);*/
+      /*printf("h=%d d=%d age=%f cov=%f\n",h,d,age,cov[2]);*/
+      out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath, 
+		   pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
+      savm=oldm;
+      oldm=newm;
+    }
+    for(i=1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)
+      for(j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
+	po[i][j][h]=newm[i][j];
+	/*printf("i=%d j=%d h=%d po[i][j][h]=%f ",i,j,h,po[i][j][h]);
+	 */
+      }
+  } /* end h */
+  return po;
+}
+
+
+/*************** log-likelihood *************/
+double func( double *x)
+{
+  int i, ii, j, k, mi, d, kk;
+  double l, ll[NLSTATEMAX], cov[NCOVMAX];
+  double **out;
+  double sw; /* Sum of weights */
+  double lli; /* Individual log likelihood */
+  long ipmx;
+  /*extern weight */
+  /* We are differentiating ll according to initial status */
+  /*  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) printf("%f ", x[i]);*/
+  /*for(i=1;i<imx;i++) 
+    printf(" %d\n",s[4][i]);
+  */
+  cov[1]=1.;
+
+  for(k=1; k<=nlstate; k++) ll[k]=0.;
+  for (i=1,ipmx=0, sw=0.; i<=imx; i++){
+    for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) cov[2+k]=covar[Tvar[k]][i];
+    for(mi=1; mi<= wav[i]-1; mi++){
+      for (ii=1;ii<=nlstate+ndeath;ii++)
+	for (j=1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) oldm[ii][j]=(ii==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
+      for(d=0; d<dh[mi][i]; d++){
+	newm=savm;
+	cov[2]=agev[mw[mi][i]][i]+d*stepm/YEARM;
+	for (kk=1; kk<=cptcovage;kk++) {
+	  cov[Tage[kk]+2]=covar[Tvar[Tage[kk]]][i]*cov[2];
+	}
+	
+	out=matprod2(newm,oldm,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath,
+		     1,nlstate+ndeath,pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate));
+	savm=oldm;
+	oldm=newm;
+	
+	
+      } /* end mult */
+      
+      lli=log(out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]);
+      /* printf(" %f ",out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]]);*/
+      ipmx +=1;
+      sw += weight[i];
+      ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli;
+    } /* end of wave */
+  } /* end of individual */
+
+  for(k=1,l=0.; k<=nlstate; k++) l += ll[k];
+  /* printf("l1=%f l2=%f ",ll[1],ll[2]); */
+  l= l*ipmx/sw; /* To get the same order of magnitude as if weight=1 for every body */
+  return -l;
+}
+
+
+/*********** Maximum Likelihood Estimation ***************/
+
+void mlikeli(FILE *ficres,double p[], int npar, int ncovmodel, int nlstate, double ftol, double (*func)(double []))
+{
+  int i,j, iter;
+  double **xi,*delti;
+  double fret;
+  xi=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
+  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
+    for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)
+      xi[i][j]=(i==j ? 1.0 : 0.0);
+  printf("Powell\n");  fprintf(ficlog,"Powell\n");
+  powell(p,xi,npar,ftol,&iter,&fret,func);
+
+   printf("\n#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f\n",iter,func(p));
+  fprintf(ficlog,"#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f \n",iter,func(p));
+  fprintf(ficres,"#Number of iterations = %d, -2 Log likelihood = %.12f \n",iter,func(p));
+
+}
+
+/**** Computes Hessian and covariance matrix ***/
+void hesscov(double **matcov, double p[], int npar, double delti[], double ftolhess, double (*func)(double []))
+{
+  double  **a,**y,*x,pd;
+  double **hess;
+  int i, j,jk;
+  int *indx;
+
+  double hessii(double p[], double delta, int theta, double delti[]);
+  double hessij(double p[], double delti[], int i, int j);
+  void lubksb(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double b[]) ;
+  void ludcmp(double **a, int npar, int *indx, double *d) ;
+
+  hess=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
+
+  printf("\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");
+  fprintf(ficlog,"\nCalculation of the hessian matrix. Wait...\n");
+  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){
+    printf("%d",i);fflush(stdout);
+    fprintf(ficlog,"%d",i);fflush(ficlog);
+    hess[i][i]=hessii(p,ftolhess,i,delti);
+    /*printf(" %f ",p[i]);*/
+    /*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][i]);*/
+  }
+  
+  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) {
+    for (j=1;j<=npar;j++)  {
+      if (j>i) { 
+	printf(".%d%d",i,j);fflush(stdout);
+	fprintf(ficlog,".%d%d",i,j);fflush(ficlog);
+	hess[i][j]=hessij(p,delti,i,j);
+	hess[j][i]=hess[i][j];    
+	/*printf(" %lf ",hess[i][j]);*/
+      }
+    }
+  }
+  printf("\n");
+  fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+
+  printf("\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");
+  fprintf(ficlog,"\nInverting the hessian to get the covariance matrix. Wait...\n");
+  
+  a=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
+  y=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
+  x=vector(1,npar);
+  indx=ivector(1,npar);
+  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
+    for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=hess[i][j];
+  ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);
+
+  for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
+    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;
+    x[j]=1;
+    lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);
+    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){ 
+      matcov[i][j]=x[i];
+    }
+  }
+
+  printf("\n#Hessian matrix#\n");
+  fprintf(ficlog,"\n#Hessian matrix#\n");
+  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) { 
+    for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) { 
+      printf("%.3e ",hess[i][j]);
+      fprintf(ficlog,"%.3e ",hess[i][j]);
+    }
+    printf("\n");
+    fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+  }
+
+  /* Recompute Inverse */
+  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++)
+    for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) a[i][j]=matcov[i][j];
+  ludcmp(a,npar,indx,&pd);
+
+  /*  printf("\n#Hessian matrix recomputed#\n");
+
+  for (j=1;j<=npar;j++) {
+    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) x[i]=0;
+    x[j]=1;
+    lubksb(a,npar,indx,x);
+    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++){ 
+      y[i][j]=x[i];
+      printf("%.3e ",y[i][j]);
+      fprintf(ficlog,"%.3e ",y[i][j]);
+    }
+    printf("\n");
+    fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+  }
+  */
+
+  free_matrix(a,1,npar,1,npar);
+  free_matrix(y,1,npar,1,npar);
+  free_vector(x,1,npar);
+  free_ivector(indx,1,npar);
+  free_matrix(hess,1,npar,1,npar);
+
+
+}
+
+/*************** hessian matrix ****************/
+double hessii( double x[], double delta, int theta, double delti[])
+{
+  int i;
+  int l=1, lmax=20;
+  double k1,k2;
+  double p2[NPARMAX+1];
+  double res;
+  double delt, delts, nkhi=10.,nkhif=1., khi=1.e-4;
+  double fx;
+  int k=0,kmax=10;
+  double l1;
+
+  fx=func(x);
+  for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];
+  for(l=0 ; l <=lmax; l++){
+    l1=pow(10,l);
+    delts=delt;
+    for(k=1 ; k <kmax; k=k+1){
+      delt = delta*(l1*k);
+      p2[theta]=x[theta] +delt;
+      k1=func(p2)-fx;
+      p2[theta]=x[theta]-delt;
+      k2=func(p2)-fx;
+      /*res= (k1-2.0*fx+k2)/delt/delt; */
+      res= (k1+k2)/delt/delt/2.; /* Divided by because L and not 2*L */
+      
+#ifdef DEBUG
+      printf("%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);
+      fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k1=%.12e k2=%.12e xk1=%.12e xk2=%.12e delt=%.12e res=%.12e l=%d k=%d,fx=%.12e\n",theta,theta,k1,k2,x[theta]+delt,x[theta]-delt,delt,res, l, k,fx);
+#endif
+      /*if(fabs(k1-2.0*fx+k2) <1.e-13){ */
+      if((k1 <khi/nkhi/2.) || (k2 <khi/nkhi/2.)){
+	k=kmax;
+      }
+      else if((k1 >khi/nkhif) || (k2 >khi/nkhif)){ /* Keeps lastvalue before 3.84/2 KHI2 5% 1d.f. */
+	k=kmax; l=lmax*10.;
+      }
+      else if((k1 >khi/nkhi) || (k2 >khi/nkhi)){ 
+	delts=delt;
+      }
+    }
+  }
+  delti[theta]=delts;
+  return res; 
+  
+}
+
+double hessij( double x[], double delti[], int thetai,int thetaj)
+{
+  int i;
+  int l=1, l1, lmax=20;
+  double k1,k2,k3,k4,res,fx;
+  double p2[NPARMAX+1];
+  int k;
+
+  fx=func(x);
+  for (k=1; k<=2; k++) {
+    for (i=1;i<=npar;i++) p2[i]=x[i];
+    p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;
+    p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;
+    k1=func(p2)-fx;
+  
+    p2[thetai]=x[thetai]+delti[thetai]/k;
+    p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;
+    k2=func(p2)-fx;
+  
+    p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;
+    p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]+delti[thetaj]/k;
+    k3=func(p2)-fx;
+  
+    p2[thetai]=x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k;
+    p2[thetaj]=x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k;
+    k4=func(p2)-fx;
+    res=(k1-k2-k3+k4)/4.0/delti[thetai]*k/delti[thetaj]*k/2.; /* Because of L not 2*L */
+#ifdef DEBUG
+    printf("%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
+    fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d k=%d, k1=%.12e k2=%.12e k3=%.12e k4=%.12e delti/k=%.12e deltj/k=%.12e, xi-de/k=%.12e xj-de/k=%.12e  res=%.12e k1234=%.12e,k1-2=%.12e,k3-4=%.12e\n",thetai,thetaj,k,k1,k2,k3,k4,delti[thetai]/k,delti[thetaj]/k,x[thetai]-delti[thetai]/k,x[thetaj]-delti[thetaj]/k, res,k1-k2-k3+k4,k1-k2,k3-k4);
+#endif
+  }
+  return res;
+}
+
+/************** Inverse of matrix **************/
+void ludcmp(double **a, int n, int *indx, double *d) 
+{ 
+  int i,imax,j,k; 
+  double big,dum,sum,temp; 
+  double *vv; 
+ 
+  vv=vector(1,n); 
+  *d=1.0; 
+  for (i=1;i<=n;i++) { 
+    big=0.0; 
+    for (j=1;j<=n;j++) 
+      if ((temp=fabs(a[i][j])) > big) big=temp; 
+    if (big == 0.0) nrerror("Singular matrix in routine ludcmp"); 
+    vv[i]=1.0/big; 
+  } 
+  for (j=1;j<=n;j++) { 
+    for (i=1;i<j;i++) { 
+      sum=a[i][j]; 
+      for (k=1;k<i;k++) sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j]; 
+      a[i][j]=sum; 
+    } 
+    big=0.0; 
+    for (i=j;i<=n;i++) { 
+      sum=a[i][j]; 
+      for (k=1;k<j;k++) 
+	sum -= a[i][k]*a[k][j]; 
+      a[i][j]=sum; 
+      if ( (dum=vv[i]*fabs(sum)) >= big) { 
+	big=dum; 
+	imax=i; 
+      } 
+    } 
+    if (j != imax) { 
+      for (k=1;k<=n;k++) { 
+	dum=a[imax][k]; 
+	a[imax][k]=a[j][k]; 
+	a[j][k]=dum; 
+      } 
+      *d = -(*d); 
+      vv[imax]=vv[j]; 
+    } 
+    indx[j]=imax; 
+    if (a[j][j] == 0.0) a[j][j]=TINY; 
+    if (j != n) { 
+      dum=1.0/(a[j][j]); 
+      for (i=j+1;i<=n;i++) a[i][j] *= dum; 
+    } 
+  } 
+  free_vector(vv,1,n);  /* Doesn't work */
+;
+} 
+
+void lubksb(double **a, int n, int *indx, double b[]) 
+{ 
+  int i,ii=0,ip,j; 
+  double sum; 
+ 
+  for (i=1;i<=n;i++) { 
+    ip=indx[i]; 
+    sum=b[ip]; 
+    b[ip]=b[i]; 
+    if (ii) 
+      for (j=ii;j<=i-1;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j]; 
+    else if (sum) ii=i; 
+    b[i]=sum; 
+  } 
+  for (i=n;i>=1;i--) { 
+    sum=b[i]; 
+    for (j=i+1;j<=n;j++) sum -= a[i][j]*b[j]; 
+    b[i]=sum/a[i][i]; 
+  } 
+} 
+
+/************ Frequencies ********************/
+void  freqsummary(char fileres[], int agemin, int agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, double dateprev1,double dateprev2,double jprev1, double mprev1,double anprev1,double jprev2, double mprev2,double anprev2)
+{  /* Some frequencies */
+  
+  int i, m, jk, k1,i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;
+  int first;
+  double ***freq; /* Frequencies */
+  double *pp;
+  double pos, k2, dateintsum=0,k2cpt=0;
+  FILE *ficresp;
+  char fileresp[FILENAMELENGTH];
+  
+  pp=vector(1,nlstate);
+  probs= ma3x(1,AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+  strcpy(fileresp,"p");
+  strcat(fileresp,fileres);
+  if((ficresp=fopen(fileresp,"w"))==NULL) {
+    printf("Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);
+    fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with prevalence resultfile: %s\n", fileresp);
+    exit(0);
+  }
+  freq= ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,agemin,agemax+3);
+  j1=0;
+  
+  j=cptcoveff;
+  if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
+
+  first=1;
+
+  for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){
+    for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
+      j1++;
+      /*printf("cptcoveff=%d Tvaraff=%d", cptcoveff,Tvaraff[1]);
+	scanf("%d", i);*/
+      for (i=-1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)  
+	for (jk=-1; jk<=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)  
+	  for(m=agemin; m <= agemax+3; m++)
+	    freq[i][jk][m]=0;
+      
+      dateintsum=0;
+      k2cpt=0;
+      for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
+	bool=1;
+	if  (cptcovn>0) {
+	  for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) 
+	    if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]) 
+	      bool=0;
+	}
+	if (bool==1) {
+	  for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){
+	    k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);
+	    if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {
+	      if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=agemax+1;
+	      if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=agemax+2;
+	      if (m<lastpass) {
+		freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
+		freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int) agemax+3] += weight[i];
+	      }
+	      
+	      if ((agev[m][i]>1) && (agev[m][i]< (agemax+3))) {
+		dateintsum=dateintsum+k2;
+		k2cpt++;
+	      }
+	    }
+	  }
+	}
+      }
+       
+      fprintf(ficresp, "#Count between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);
+
+      if  (cptcovn>0) {
+	fprintf(ficresp, "\n#********** Variable "); 
+	for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresp, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
+	fprintf(ficresp, "**********\n#");
+      }
+      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) 
+	fprintf(ficresp, " Age Prev(%d) N(%d) N",i,i);
+      fprintf(ficresp, "\n");
+      
+      for(i=(int)agemin; i <= (int)agemax+3; i++){
+	if(i==(int)agemax+3){
+	  fprintf(ficlog,"Total");
+	}else{
+	  if(first==1){
+	    first=0;
+	    printf("See log file for details...\n");
+	  }
+	  fprintf(ficlog,"Age %d", i);
+	}
+	for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
+	  for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)
+	    pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i]; 
+	}
+	for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
+	  for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)
+	    pos += freq[jk][m][i];
+	  if(pp[jk]>=1.e-10){
+	    if(first==1){
+	    printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);
+	    }
+	    fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pos/pp[jk]);
+	  }else{
+	    if(first==1)
+	      printf(" %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
+	    fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f loss[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
+	  }
+	}
+
+	for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
+	  for(m=0, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)
+	    pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];
+	}
+
+	for(jk=1,pos=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++)
+	  pos += pp[jk];
+	for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
+	  if(pos>=1.e-5){
+	    if(first==1)
+	      printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);
+	    fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=%.1f%%",jk,pp[jk],jk,100*pp[jk]/pos);
+	  }else{
+	    if(first==1)
+	      printf(" %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
+	    fprintf(ficlog," %d.=%.0f prev[%d]=NaNQ%%",jk,pp[jk],jk);
+	  }
+	  if( i <= (int) agemax){
+	    if(pos>=1.e-5){
+	      fprintf(ficresp," %d %.5f %.0f %.0f",i,pp[jk]/pos, pp[jk],pos);
+	      probs[i][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;
+	      /*printf("\ni=%d jk=%d j1=%d %.5f %.0f %.0f %f",i,jk,j1,pp[jk]/pos, pp[jk],pos,probs[i][jk][j1]);*/
+	    }
+	    else
+	      fprintf(ficresp," %d NaNq %.0f %.0f",i,pp[jk],pos);
+	  }
+	}
+	
+	for(jk=-1; jk <=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)
+	  for(m=-1; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)
+	    if(freq[jk][m][i] !=0 ) {
+	    if(first==1)
+	      printf(" %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);
+	      fprintf(ficlog," %d%d=%.0f",jk,m,freq[jk][m][i]);
+	    }
+	if(i <= (int) agemax)
+	  fprintf(ficresp,"\n");
+	if(first==1)
+	  printf("Others in log...\n");
+	fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+      }
+    }
+  }
+  dateintmean=dateintsum/k2cpt; 
+ 
+  fclose(ficresp);
+  free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) agemin,(int) agemax+3);
+  free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);
+  
+  /* End of Freq */
+}
+
+/************ Prevalence ********************/
+void prevalence(int agemin, float agemax, int **s, double **agev, int nlstate, int imx, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax,double **mint,double **anint, double dateprev1,double dateprev2, double calagedate)
+{  /* Some frequencies */
+ 
+  int i, m, jk, k1, i1, j1, bool, z1,z2,j;
+  double ***freq; /* Frequencies */
+  double *pp;
+  double pos, k2;
+
+  pp=vector(1,nlstate);
+  
+  freq=ma3x(-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,agemin,agemax+3);
+  j1=0;
+  
+  j=cptcoveff;
+  if (cptcovn<1) {j=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
+  
+  for(k1=1; k1<=j;k1++){
+    for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
+      j1++;
+      
+      for (i=-1; i<=nlstate+ndeath; i++)  
+	for (jk=-1; jk<=nlstate+ndeath; jk++)  
+	  for(m=agemin; m <= agemax+3; m++)
+	    freq[i][jk][m]=0;
+     
+      for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
+	bool=1;
+	if  (cptcovn>0) {
+	  for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) 
+	    if (covar[Tvaraff[z1]][i]!= nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]) 
+	      bool=0;
+	} 
+	if (bool==1) { 
+	  for(m=firstpass; m<=lastpass; m++){
+	    k2=anint[m][i]+(mint[m][i]/12.);
+	    if ((k2>=dateprev1) && (k2<=dateprev2)) {
+	      if(agev[m][i]==0) agev[m][i]=agemax+1;
+	      if(agev[m][i]==1) agev[m][i]=agemax+2;
+	      if (m<lastpass) {
+	      	if (calagedate>0) 
+		  freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)(agev[m][i]+1-((int)calagedate %12)/12.)] += weight[i];
+		else
+		  freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)agev[m][i]] += weight[i];
+		freq[s[m][i]][s[m+1][i]][(int)(agemax+3)] += weight[i]; 
+	      }
+	    }
+	  }
+	}
+      }
+      for(i=(int)agemin; i <= (int)agemax+3; i++){ 
+	for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
+	  for(m=-1, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath ; m++)
+	    pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i]; 
+	}
+	for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
+	  for(m=-1, pos=0; m <=0 ; m++)
+	    pos += freq[jk][m][i];
+	}
+	
+	for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){
+	  for(m=0, pp[jk]=0; m <=nlstate+ndeath; m++)
+	    pp[jk] += freq[jk][m][i];
+	}
+	
+	for(jk=1,pos=0; jk <=nlstate ; jk++) pos += pp[jk];
+	
+	for(jk=1; jk <=nlstate ; jk++){	   
+	  if( i <= (int) agemax){
+	    if(pos>=1.e-5){
+	      probs[i][jk][j1]= pp[jk]/pos;
+	    }
+	  }
+	}/* end jk */
+      }/* end i */
+    } /* end i1 */
+  } /* end k1 */
+
+  
+  free_ma3x(freq,-1,nlstate+ndeath,-1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) agemin,(int) agemax+3);
+  free_vector(pp,1,nlstate);
+  
+}  /* End of Freq */
+
+/************* Waves Concatenation ***************/
+
+void  concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int **mw, int **s, double *agedc, double **agev, int  firstpass, int lastpass, int imx, int nlstate, int stepm)
+{
+  /* Concatenates waves: wav[i] is the number of effective (useful waves) of individual i.
+     Death is a valid wave (if date is known).
+     mw[mi][i] is the mi (mi=1 to wav[i])  effective wave of individual i
+     dh[m][i] of dh[mw[mi][i][i] is the delay between two effective waves m=mw[mi][i]
+     and mw[mi+1][i]. dh depends on stepm.
+     */
+
+  int i, mi, m;
+  /* int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl,jmin=1e+5, jmax=-1;
+     double sum=0., jmean=0.;*/
+  int first;
+  int j, k=0,jk, ju, jl;
+  double sum=0.;
+  first=0;
+  jmin=1e+5;
+  jmax=-1;
+  jmean=0.;
+  for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){
+    mi=0;
+    m=firstpass;
+    while(s[m][i] <= nlstate){
+      if(s[m][i]>=1)
+	mw[++mi][i]=m;
+      if(m >=lastpass)
+	break;
+      else
+	m++;
+    }/* end while */
+    if (s[m][i] > nlstate){
+      mi++;	/* Death is another wave */
+      /* if(mi==0)  never been interviewed correctly before death */
+	 /* Only death is a correct wave */
+      mw[mi][i]=m;
+    }
+
+    wav[i]=mi;
+    if(mi==0){
+      if(first==0){
+	printf("Warning, no any valid information for:%d line=%d and may be others, see log file\n",num[i],i);
+	first=1;
+      }
+      if(first==1){
+	fprintf(ficlog,"Warning, no any valid information for:%d line=%d\n",num[i],i);
+      }
+    } /* end mi==0 */
+  }
+
+  for(i=1; i<=imx; i++){
+    for(mi=1; mi<wav[i];mi++){
+      if (stepm <=0)
+	dh[mi][i]=1;
+      else{
+	if (s[mw[mi+1][i]][i] > nlstate) {
+	  if (agedc[i] < 2*AGESUP) {
+	  j= rint(agedc[i]*12-agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12); 
+	  if(j==0) j=1;  /* Survives at least one month after exam */
+	  k=k+1;
+	  if (j >= jmax) jmax=j;
+	  if (j <= jmin) jmin=j;
+	  sum=sum+j;
+	  /*if (j<0) printf("j=%d num=%d \n",j,i); */
+	  }
+	}
+	else{
+	  j= rint( (agev[mw[mi+1][i]][i]*12 - agev[mw[mi][i]][i]*12));
+	  k=k+1;
+	  if (j >= jmax) jmax=j;
+	  else if (j <= jmin)jmin=j;
+	  /*	    if (j<10) printf("j=%d jmin=%d num=%d ",j,jmin,i); */
+	  sum=sum+j;
+	}
+	jk= j/stepm;
+	jl= j -jk*stepm;
+	ju= j -(jk+1)*stepm;
+	if(jl <= -ju)
+	  dh[mi][i]=jk;
+	else
+	  dh[mi][i]=jk+1;
+	if(dh[mi][i]==0)
+	  dh[mi][i]=1; /* At least one step */
+      }
+    }
+  }
+  jmean=sum/k;
+  printf("Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%f\n\n ",jmin, jmax,jmean);
+  fprintf(ficlog,"Delay (in months) between two waves Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%f\n\n ",jmin, jmax,jmean);
+ }
+
+/*********** Tricode ****************************/
+void tricode(int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int imx)
+{
+  int Ndum[20],ij=1, k, j, i;
+  int cptcode=0;
+  cptcoveff=0; 
+ 
+  for (k=0; k<19; k++) Ndum[k]=0;
+  for (k=1; k<=7; k++) ncodemax[k]=0;
+
+  for (j=1; j<=(cptcovn+2*cptcovprod); j++) {
+    for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
+      ij=(int)(covar[Tvar[j]][i]);
+      Ndum[ij]++; 
+      /*printf("i=%d ij=%d Ndum[ij]=%d imx=%d",i,ij,Ndum[ij],imx);*/
+      if (ij > cptcode) cptcode=ij; 
+    }
+
+    for (i=0; i<=cptcode; i++) {
+      if(Ndum[i]!=0) ncodemax[j]++;
+    }
+    ij=1; 
+
+
+    for (i=1; i<=ncodemax[j]; i++) {
+      for (k=0; k<=19; k++) {
+	if (Ndum[k] != 0) {
+	  nbcode[Tvar[j]][ij]=k; 
+	  
+	  ij++;
+	}
+	if (ij > ncodemax[j]) break; 
+      }  
+    } 
+  }  
+
+ for (k=0; k<19; k++) Ndum[k]=0;
+
+ for (i=1; i<=ncovmodel-2; i++) {
+   ij=Tvar[i];
+   Ndum[ij]++; 
+ }
+
+ ij=1;
+ for (i=1; i<=10; i++) {
+   if((Ndum[i]!=0) && (i<=ncovcol)){
+     Tvaraff[ij]=i; 
+     ij++;
+   }
+ }
+ 
+ cptcoveff=ij-1;
+}
+
+/*********** Health Expectancies ****************/
+
+void evsij(char fileres[], double ***eij, double x[], int nlstate, int stepm, int bage, int fage, double **oldm, double **savm, int ij, int estepm,double delti[],double **matcov )
+
+{
+  /* Health expectancies */
+  int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm, k, cptj;
+  double age, agelim, hf;
+  double ***p3mat,***varhe;
+  double **dnewm,**doldm;
+  double *xp;
+  double **gp, **gm;
+  double ***gradg, ***trgradg;
+  int theta;
+
+  varhe=ma3x(1,nlstate*2,1,nlstate*2,(int) bage, (int) fage);
+  xp=vector(1,npar);
+  dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate*2,1,npar);
+  doldm=matrix(1,nlstate*2,1,nlstate*2);
+  
+  fprintf(ficreseij,"# Health expectancies\n");
+  fprintf(ficreseij,"# Age");
+  for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+    for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
+      fprintf(ficreseij," %1d-%1d (SE)",i,j);
+  fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");
+
+  if(estepm < stepm){
+    printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
+  }
+  else  hstepm=estepm;   
+  /* We compute the life expectancy from trapezoids spaced every estepm months
+   * This is mainly to measure the difference between two models: for example
+   * if stepm=24 months pijx are given only every 2 years and by summing them
+   * we are calculating an estimate of the Life Expectancy assuming a linear 
+   * progression inbetween and thus overestimating or underestimating according
+   * to the curvature of the survival function. If, for the same date, we 
+   * estimate the model with stepm=1 month, we can keep estepm to 24 months
+   * to compare the new estimate of Life expectancy with the same linear 
+   * hypothesis. A more precise result, taking into account a more precise
+   * curvature will be obtained if estepm is as small as stepm. */
+
+  /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
+  /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm. 
+     nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim 
+     nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin. 
+     Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size
+     and note for a fixed period like estepm months */
+  /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
+     survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
+     means that if the survival funtion is printed only each two years of age and if
+     you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same 
+     results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.
+  */
+  hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */ 
+
+  agelim=AGESUP;
+  for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
+    /* nhstepm age range expressed in number of stepm */
+    nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); 
+    /* Typically if 20 years nstepm = 20*12/6=40 stepm */ 
+    /* if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;*/
+    nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
+    p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+    gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate*2);
+    gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*2);
+    gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*2);
+
+    /* Computed by stepm unit matrices, product of hstepm matrices, stored
+       in an array of nhstepm length: nhstepm=10, hstepm=4, stepm=6 months */
+    hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm, savm, ij);  
+ 
+
+    hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
+
+    /* Computing Variances of health expectancies */
+
+     for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
+      for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ 
+	xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
+      }
+      hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
+  
+      cptj=0;
+      for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
+	for(i=1; i<=nlstate; i++){
+	  cptj=cptj+1;
+	  for(h=0, gp[h][cptj]=0.; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
+	    gp[h][cptj] = (p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.;
+	  }
+	}
+      }
+     
+     
+      for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) 
+	xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
+      hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
+      
+      cptj=0;
+      for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
+	for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++){
+	  cptj=cptj+1;
+	  for(h=0, gm[h][cptj]=0.; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
+	    gm[h][cptj] = (p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.;
+	  }
+	}
+      }
+      for(j=1; j<= nlstate*2; j++)
+	for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
+	  gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];
+	}
+     } 
+   
+/* End theta */
+
+     trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*2,1,npar);
+
+     for(h=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++)
+      for(j=1; j<=nlstate*2;j++)
+	for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
+	  trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];
+     
+
+     for(i=1;i<=nlstate*2;i++)
+      for(j=1;j<=nlstate*2;j++)
+	varhe[i][j][(int)age] =0.;
+
+     printf("%d|",(int)age);fflush(stdout);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"%d|",(int)age);fflush(ficlog);
+     for(h=0;h<=nhstepm-1;h++){
+      for(k=0;k<=nhstepm-1;k++){
+	matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate*2,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
+	matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate*2,1,npar,1,nlstate*2,gradg[k]);
+	for(i=1;i<=nlstate*2;i++)
+	  for(j=1;j<=nlstate*2;j++)
+	    varhe[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j]*hf*hf;
+      }
+    }
+    /* Computing expectancies */
+    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+      for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
+	for (h=0, eij[i][j][(int)age]=0; h<=nhstepm-1; h++){
+	  eij[i][j][(int)age] += (p3mat[i][j][h]+p3mat[i][j][h+1])/2.0*hf;
+	  
+/* if((int)age==70)printf("i=%2d,j=%2d,h=%2d,age=%3d,%9.4f,%9.4f,%9.4f\n",i,j,h,(int)age,p3mat[i][j][h],hf,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
+
+	}
+
+    fprintf(ficreseij,"%3.0f",age );
+    cptj=0;
+    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+      for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
+	cptj++;
+	fprintf(ficreseij," %9.4f (%.4f)", eij[i][j][(int)age], sqrt(varhe[cptj][cptj][(int)age]) );
+      }
+    fprintf(ficreseij,"\n");
+   
+    free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*2);
+    free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*2);
+    free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate*2);
+    free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate*2,1,npar);
+    free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+  }
+  printf("\n");
+  fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+
+  free_vector(xp,1,npar);
+  free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate*2,1,npar);
+  free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate*2,1,nlstate*2);
+  free_ma3x(varhe,1,nlstate*2,1,nlstate*2,(int) bage, (int)fage);
+}
+
+/************ Variance ******************/
+void varevsij(char optionfilefiname[], double ***vareij, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij, int estepm, int cptcov, int cptcod, int popbased, int mobilav)
+{
+  /* Variance of health expectancies */
+  /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double ** savm,double ftolpl);*/
+  /* double **newm;*/
+  double **dnewm,**doldm;
+  double **dnewmp,**doldmp;
+  int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm, h, nstepm ;
+  int k, cptcode;
+  double *xp;
+  double **gp, **gm;  /* for var eij */
+  double ***gradg, ***trgradg; /*for var eij */
+  double **gradgp, **trgradgp; /* for var p point j */
+  double *gpp, *gmp; /* for var p point j */
+  double **varppt; /* for var p point j nlstate to nlstate+ndeath */
+  double ***p3mat;
+  double age,agelim, hf;
+  double ***mobaverage;
+  int theta;
+  char digit[4];
+  char digitp[25];
+
+  char fileresprobmorprev[FILENAMELENGTH];
+
+  if(popbased==1){
+    if(mobilav==1)
+      strcpy(digitp,"-populbased-mobilav-");
+    else strcpy(digitp,"-populbased-nomobil-");
+  }
+  else 
+    strcpy(digitp,"-stablbased-");
+
+  if (mobilav!=0) {
+    mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+    if (movingaverage(probs, bage, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
+      fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
+      printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
+    }
+  }
+
+  strcpy(fileresprobmorprev,"prmorprev"); 
+  sprintf(digit,"%-d",ij);
+  /*printf("DIGIT=%s, ij=%d ijr=%-d|\n",digit, ij,ij);*/
+  strcat(fileresprobmorprev,digit); /* Tvar to be done */
+  strcat(fileresprobmorprev,digitp); /* Popbased or not, mobilav or not */
+  strcat(fileresprobmorprev,fileres);
+  if((ficresprobmorprev=fopen(fileresprobmorprev,"w"))==NULL) {
+    printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobmorprev);
+    fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobmorprev);
+  }
+  printf("Computing total mortality p.j=w1*p1j+w2*p2j+..: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobmorprev);
+  fprintf(ficlog,"Computing total mortality p.j=w1*p1j+w2*p2j+..: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobmorprev);
+  fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"# probabilities of dying during a year and weighted mean w1*p1j+w2*p2j+... stand dev in()\n");
+  fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"# Age cov=%-d",ij);
+  for(j=nlstate+1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
+    fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," p.%-d SE",j);
+    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+      fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," w%1d p%-d%-d",i,i,j);
+  }  
+  fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"\n");
+  if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"a"))==NULL) {
+    printf("Problem with gnuplot file: %s\n", optionfilegnuplot);
+    fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with gnuplot file: %s\n", optionfilegnuplot);
+    exit(0);
+  }
+  else{
+    fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Routine varevsij");
+  }
+  if((fichtm=fopen(optionfilehtm,"a"))==NULL) {
+    printf("Problem with html file: %s\n", optionfilehtm);
+    fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with html file: %s\n", optionfilehtm);
+    exit(0);
+  }
+  else{
+    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> Computing probabilities of dying as a weighted average (i.e global mortality independent of initial healh state)</h4></li>\n");
+    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>%s (à revoir) <br>\n",digitp);
+  }
+  varppt = matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+
+  fprintf(ficresvij,"# Variance and covariance of health expectancies e.j \n#  (weighted average of eij where weights are the stable prevalence in health states i\n");
+  fprintf(ficresvij,"# Age");
+  for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+    for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
+      fprintf(ficresvij," Cov(e%1d, e%1d)",i,j);
+  fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
+
+  xp=vector(1,npar);
+  dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
+  doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
+  dnewmp= matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar);
+  doldmp= matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+
+  gradgp=matrix(1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+  gpp=vector(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+  gmp=vector(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+  trgradgp =matrix(nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar); /* mu or p point j*/
+  
+  if(estepm < stepm){
+    printf ("Problem %d lower than %d\n",estepm, stepm);
+  }
+  else  hstepm=estepm;   
+  /* For example we decided to compute the life expectancy with the smallest unit */
+  /* hstepm beeing the number of stepms, if hstepm=1 the length of hstepm is stepm. 
+     nhstepm is the number of hstepm from age to agelim 
+     nstepm is the number of stepm from age to agelin. 
+     Look at hpijx to understand the reason of that which relies in memory size
+     and note for a fixed period like k years */
+  /* We decided (b) to get a life expectancy respecting the most precise curvature of the
+     survival function given by stepm (the optimization length). Unfortunately it
+     means that if the survival funtion is printed only each two years of age and if
+     you sum them up and add 1 year (area under the trapezoids) you won't get the same 
+     results. So we changed our mind and took the option of the best precision.
+  */
+  hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if stepm=6 & estepm=24 , = 24/6 months = 4 */ 
+  agelim = AGESUP;
+  for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
+    nstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */ 
+    nhstepm = nstepm/hstepm;/* Expressed in hstepm, typically nhstepm=40/4=10 */
+    p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+    gradg=ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
+    gp=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
+    gm=matrix(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
+
+
+    for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
+      for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */
+	xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
+      }
+      hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
+      prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
+
+      if (popbased==1) {
+	if(mobilav ==0){
+	  for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+	    prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
+	}else{ /* mobilav */ 
+	  for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+	    prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
+	}
+      }
+  
+      for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
+	for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
+	  for(i=1, gp[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
+	    gp[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
+	}
+      }
+      /* This for computing forces of mortality (h=1)as a weighted average */
+      for(j=nlstate+1,gpp[j]=0.;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+	for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++)
+	  gpp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
+      }    
+      /* end force of mortality */
+
+      for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */
+	xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
+      hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,xp,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
+      prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
+ 
+      if (popbased==1) {
+	if(mobilav ==0){
+	  for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+	    prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
+	}else{ /* mobilav */ 
+	  for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+	    prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
+	}
+      }
+
+      for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++){
+	for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
+	  for(i=1, gm[h][j]=0.;i<=nlstate;i++)
+	    gm[h][j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][h];
+	}
+      }
+      /* This for computing force of mortality (h=1)as a weighted average */
+      for(j=nlstate+1,gmp[j]=0.;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+	for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++)
+	  gmp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1];
+      }    
+      /* end force of mortality */
+
+      for(j=1; j<= nlstate; j++) /* vareij */
+	for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
+	  gradg[h][theta][j]= (gp[h][j]-gm[h][j])/2./delti[theta];
+	}
+      for(j=nlstate+1; j<= nlstate+ndeath; j++){ /* var mu */
+	gradgp[theta][j]= (gpp[j]-gmp[j])/2./delti[theta];
+      }
+
+    } /* End theta */
+
+    trgradg =ma3x(0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar); /* veij */
+
+    for(h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++) /* veij */
+      for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
+	for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
+	  trgradg[h][j][theta]=gradg[h][theta][j];
+
+    for(j=nlstate+1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) /* mu */
+      for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
+	trgradgp[j][theta]=gradgp[theta][j];
+
+    hf=hstepm*stepm/YEARM;  /* Duration of hstepm expressed in year unit. */
+    for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
+      for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
+	vareij[i][j][(int)age] =0.;
+
+    for(h=0;h<=nhstepm;h++){
+      for(k=0;k<=nhstepm;k++){
+	matprod2(dnewm,trgradg[h],1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
+	matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg[k]);
+	for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
+	  for(j=1;j<=nlstate;j++)
+	    vareij[i][j][(int)age] += doldm[i][j]*hf*hf;
+      }
+    }
+
+    /* pptj */
+    matprod2(dnewmp,trgradgp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
+    matprod2(doldmp,dnewmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,gradgp);
+    for(j=nlstate+1;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
+      for(i=nlstate+1;i<=nlstate+ndeath;i++)
+	varppt[j][i]=doldmp[j][i];
+    /* end ppptj */
+    hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,age,hstepm,x,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, ij);  
+    prevalim(prlim,nlstate,x,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
+ 
+    if (popbased==1) {
+      if(mobilav ==0){
+	for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+	  prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][ij];
+      }else{ /* mobilav */ 
+	for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+	  prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][ij];
+      }
+    }
+    
+    /* This for computing force of mortality (h=1)as a weighted average */
+    for(j=nlstate+1,gmp[j]=0.;j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++){
+      for(i=1; i<= nlstate; i++)
+	gmp[j] += prlim[i][i]*p3mat[i][j][1]; 
+    }    
+    /* end force of mortality */
+
+    fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"%3d %d ",(int) age, ij);
+    for(j=nlstate+1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
+      fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," %11.3e %11.3e",gmp[j], sqrt(varppt[j][j]));
+      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+	fprintf(ficresprobmorprev," %11.3e %11.3e ",prlim[i][i],p3mat[i][j][1]);
+      }
+    } 
+    fprintf(ficresprobmorprev,"\n");
+
+    fprintf(ficresvij,"%.0f ",age );
+    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+      for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
+	fprintf(ficresvij," %.4f", vareij[i][j][(int)age]);
+      }
+    fprintf(ficresvij,"\n");
+    free_matrix(gp,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
+    free_matrix(gm,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate);
+    free_ma3x(gradg,0,nhstepm,1,npar,1,nlstate);
+    free_ma3x(trgradg,0,nhstepm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
+    free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+  } /* End age */
+  free_vector(gpp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+  free_vector(gmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+  free_matrix(gradgp,1,npar,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+  free_matrix(trgradgp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar); /* mu or p point j*/
+  fprintf(ficgp,"\nset noparametric;set nolabel; set ter png small;set size 0.65, 0.65");
+  /* for(j=nlstate+1; j<= nlstate+ndeath; j++){ *//* Only the first actually */
+  fprintf(ficgp,"\n set log y; set nolog x;set xlabel \"Age\"; set ylabel \"Force of mortality (year-1)\";");
+  fprintf(ficgp,"\n plot \"%s\"  u 1:($3*%6.3f) not w l 1 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm);
+  fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)*%6.3f) t \"95\%% interval\" w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm);
+  fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\"  u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)*%6.3f) not w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev,YEARM/estepm);
+  fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> File (multiple files are possible if covariates are present): <A href=\"%s\">%s</a>\n",fileresprobmorprev,fileresprobmorprev);
+  fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> Probability is computed over estepm=%d months. <br> <img src=\"varmuptjgr%s%s.png\"> <br>\n", stepm,digitp,digit);
+  /*  fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> Probability is computed over estepm=%d months and then divided by estepm and multiplied by %.0f in order to have the probability to die over a year <br> <img src=\"varmuptjgr%s%s.png\"> <br>\n", stepm,YEARM,digitp,digit);
+*/
+  fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"varmuptjgr%s%s.png\";replot;",digitp,digit);
+
+  free_vector(xp,1,npar);
+  free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
+  free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
+  free_matrix(doldmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+  free_matrix(dnewmp,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,1,npar);
+  free_matrix(varppt,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath,nlstate+1,nlstate+ndeath);
+  if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+  fclose(ficresprobmorprev);
+  fclose(ficgp);
+  fclose(fichtm);
+}
+
+/************ Variance of prevlim ******************/
+void varprevlim(char fileres[], double **varpl, double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, int stepm, double bage, double fage, double **oldm, double **savm, double **prlim, double ftolpl, int ij)
+{
+  /* Variance of prevalence limit */
+  /*  double **prevalim(double **prlim, int nlstate, double *xp, double age, double **oldm, double ** savm,double ftolpl);*/
+  double **newm;
+  double **dnewm,**doldm;
+  int i, j, nhstepm, hstepm;
+  int k, cptcode;
+  double *xp;
+  double *gp, *gm;
+  double **gradg, **trgradg;
+  double age,agelim;
+  int theta;
+   
+  fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Standard deviation of stable prevalences \n");
+  fprintf(ficresvpl,"# Age");
+  for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+      fprintf(ficresvpl," %1d-%1d",i,i);
+  fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
+
+  xp=vector(1,npar);
+  dnewm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
+  doldm=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
+  
+  hstepm=1*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
+  hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically in stepm units, if j= 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */ 
+  agelim = AGESUP;
+  for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ /* If stepm=6 months */
+    nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-age)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */ 
+    if (stepm >= YEARM) hstepm=1;
+    nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */
+    gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,nlstate);
+    gp=vector(1,nlstate);
+    gm=vector(1,nlstate);
+
+    for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
+      for(i=1; i<=npar; i++){ /* Computes gradient */
+	xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
+      }
+      prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
+      for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
+	gp[i] = prlim[i][i];
+    
+      for(i=1; i<=npar; i++) /* Computes gradient */
+	xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
+      prevalim(prlim,nlstate,xp,age,oldm,savm,ftolpl,ij);
+      for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
+	gm[i] = prlim[i][i];
+
+      for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
+	gradg[theta][i]= (gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];
+    } /* End theta */
+
+    trgradg =matrix(1,nlstate,1,npar);
+
+    for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++)
+      for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
+	trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
+
+    for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
+      varpl[i][(int)age] =0.;
+    matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,npar,matcov);
+    matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,nlstate,1,npar,1,nlstate,gradg);
+    for(i=1;i<=nlstate;i++)
+      varpl[i][(int)age] = doldm[i][i]; /* Covariances are useless */
+
+    fprintf(ficresvpl,"%.0f ",age );
+    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+      fprintf(ficresvpl," %.5f (%.5f)",prlim[i][i],sqrt(varpl[i][(int)age]));
+    fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n");
+    free_vector(gp,1,nlstate);
+    free_vector(gm,1,nlstate);
+    free_matrix(gradg,1,npar,1,nlstate);
+    free_matrix(trgradg,1,nlstate,1,npar);
+  } /* End age */
+
+  free_vector(xp,1,npar);
+  free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,npar);
+  free_matrix(dnewm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
+
+}
+
+/************ Variance of one-step probabilities  ******************/
+void varprob(char optionfilefiname[], double **matcov, double x[], double delti[], int nlstate, double bage, double fage, int ij, int *Tvar, int **nbcode, int *ncodemax)
+{
+  int i, j=0,  i1, k1, l1, t, tj;
+  int k2, l2, j1,  z1;
+  int k=0,l, cptcode;
+  int first=1, first1;
+  double cv12, mu1, mu2, lc1, lc2, v12, v21, v11, v22,v1,v2, c12, tnalp;
+  double **dnewm,**doldm;
+  double *xp;
+  double *gp, *gm;
+  double **gradg, **trgradg;
+  double **mu;
+  double age,agelim, cov[NCOVMAX];
+  double std=2.0; /* Number of standard deviation wide of confidence ellipsoids */
+  int theta;
+  char fileresprob[FILENAMELENGTH];
+  char fileresprobcov[FILENAMELENGTH];
+  char fileresprobcor[FILENAMELENGTH];
+
+  double ***varpij;
+
+  strcpy(fileresprob,"prob"); 
+  strcat(fileresprob,fileres);
+  if((ficresprob=fopen(fileresprob,"w"))==NULL) {
+    printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
+    fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprob);
+  }
+  strcpy(fileresprobcov,"probcov"); 
+  strcat(fileresprobcov,fileres);
+  if((ficresprobcov=fopen(fileresprobcov,"w"))==NULL) {
+    printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
+    fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcov);
+  }
+  strcpy(fileresprobcor,"probcor"); 
+  strcat(fileresprobcor,fileres);
+  if((ficresprobcor=fopen(fileresprobcor,"w"))==NULL) {
+    printf("Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
+    fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with resultfile: %s\n", fileresprobcor);
+  }
+  printf("Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
+  fprintf(ficlog,"Computing standard deviation of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprob);
+  printf("Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
+  fprintf(ficlog,"Computing matrix of variance covariance of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcov);
+  printf("and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
+  fprintf(ficlog,"and correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: result on file '%s' \n",fileresprobcor);
+  
+  fprintf(ficresprob,"#One-step probabilities and stand. devi in ()\n");
+  fprintf(ficresprob,"# Age");
+  fprintf(ficresprobcov,"#One-step probabilities and covariance matrix\n");
+  fprintf(ficresprobcov,"# Age");
+  fprintf(ficresprobcor,"#One-step probabilities and correlation matrix\n");
+  fprintf(ficresprobcov,"# Age");
+
+
+  for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+    for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
+      fprintf(ficresprob," p%1d-%1d (SE)",i,j);
+      fprintf(ficresprobcov," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);
+      fprintf(ficresprobcor," p%1d-%1d ",i,j);
+    }  
+  fprintf(ficresprob,"\n");
+  fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n");
+  fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n");
+  xp=vector(1,npar);
+  dnewm=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
+  doldm=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
+  mu=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath), (int) bage, (int)fage);
+  varpij=ma3x(1,nlstate*(nlstate+ndeath),1,nlstate*(nlstate+ndeath),(int) bage, (int) fage);
+  first=1;
+  if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"a"))==NULL) {
+    printf("Problem with gnuplot file: %s\n", optionfilegnuplot);
+    fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with gnuplot file: %s\n", optionfilegnuplot);
+    exit(0);
+  }
+  else{
+    fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Routine varprob");
+  }
+  if((fichtm=fopen(optionfilehtm,"a"))==NULL) {
+    printf("Problem with html file: %s\n", optionfilehtm);
+    fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with html file: %s\n", optionfilehtm);
+    exit(0);
+  }
+  else{
+    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> Computing and drawing one step probabilities with their confidence intervals</h4></li>\n");
+    fprintf(fichtm,"\n");
+
+    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<li><h4> Computing matrix of variance-covariance of step probabilities</h4></li>\n");
+    fprintf(fichtm,"\nWe have drawn ellipsoids of confidence around the p<inf>ij</inf>, p<inf>kl</inf> to understand the covariance between two incidences. They are expressed in year<sup>-1</sup> in order to be less dependent of stepm.<br>\n");
+    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> We have drawn x'cov<sup>-1</sup>x = 4 where x is the column vector (pij,pkl). It means that if pij and pkl where uncorrelated the (2X2) matrix would have been (1/(var pij), 0 , 0, 1/(var pkl)), and the confidence interval would be 2 standard deviations wide on each axis. <br> When both incidences are correlated we diagonalised the inverse of the covariance matrix and made the appropriate rotation.<br> \n");
+
+  }
+
+ 
+  cov[1]=1;
+  tj=cptcoveff;
+  if (cptcovn<1) {tj=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
+  j1=0;
+  for(t=1; t<=tj;t++){
+    for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[t];i1++){ 
+      j1++;
+      
+      if  (cptcovn>0) {
+	fprintf(ficresprob, "\n#********** Variable "); 
+	for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprob, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
+	fprintf(ficresprob, "**********\n#");
+	fprintf(ficresprobcov, "\n#********** Variable "); 
+	for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprobcov, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
+	fprintf(ficresprobcov, "**********\n#");
+	
+	fprintf(ficgp, "\n#********** Variable "); 
+	for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficgp, "# V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
+	fprintf(ficgp, "**********\n#");
+	
+	
+	fprintf(fichtm, "\n<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">********** Variable "); 
+	for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(fichtm, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
+	fprintf(fichtm, "**********\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
+	
+	fprintf(ficresprobcor, "\n#********** Variable ");    
+	for (z1=1; z1<=cptcoveff; z1++) fprintf(ficresprobcor, "V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[z1],nbcode[Tvaraff[z1]][codtab[j1][z1]]);
+	fprintf(ficgp, "**********\n#");    
+      }
+      
+      for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ 
+	cov[2]=age;
+	for (k=1; k<=cptcovn;k++) {
+	  cov[2+k]=nbcode[Tvar[k]][codtab[j1][Tvar[k]]];
+	}
+	for (k=1; k<=cptcovage;k++) cov[2+Tage[k]]=cov[2+Tage[k]]*cov[2];
+	for (k=1; k<=cptcovprod;k++)
+	  cov[2+Tprod[k]]=nbcode[Tvard[k][1]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][1]]]*nbcode[Tvard[k][2]][codtab[ij][Tvard[k][2]]];
+	
+	gradg=matrix(1,npar,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
+	trgradg=matrix(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
+	gp=vector(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
+	gm=vector(1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath));
+    
+	for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++){
+	  for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
+	    xp[i] = x[i] + (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
+	  
+	  pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
+	  
+	  k=0;
+	  for(i=1; i<= (nlstate); i++){
+	    for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
+	      k=k+1;
+	      gp[k]=pmmij[i][j];
+	    }
+	  }
+	  
+	  for(i=1; i<=npar; i++)
+	    xp[i] = x[i] - (i==theta ?delti[theta]:0);
+    
+	  pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,xp,nlstate);
+	  k=0;
+	  for(i=1; i<=(nlstate); i++){
+	    for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
+	      k=k+1;
+	      gm[k]=pmmij[i][j];
+	    }
+	  }
+     
+	  for(i=1; i<= (nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath); i++) 
+	    gradg[theta][i]=(gp[i]-gm[i])/2./delti[theta];  
+	}
+
+	for(j=1; j<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)
+	  for(theta=1; theta <=npar; theta++)
+	    trgradg[j][theta]=gradg[theta][j];
+	
+	matprod2(dnewm,trgradg,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar,1,npar,matcov); 
+	matprod2(doldm,dnewm,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar,1,(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath),gradg);
+	
+	pmij(pmmij,cov,ncovmodel,x,nlstate);
+	
+	k=0;
+	for(i=1; i<=(nlstate); i++){
+	  for(j=1; j<=(nlstate+ndeath);j++){
+	    k=k+1;
+	    mu[k][(int) age]=pmmij[i][j];
+	  }
+	}
+     	for(i=1;i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++)
+	  for(j=1;j<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);j++)
+	    varpij[i][j][(int)age] = doldm[i][j];
+
+	/*printf("\n%d ",(int)age);
+     for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++){
+       printf("%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));
+       fprintf(ficlog,"%e [%e ;%e] ",gm[i],gm[i]-2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]),gm[i]+2*sqrt(doldm[i][i]));
+     }*/
+
+	fprintf(ficresprob,"\n%d ",(int)age);
+	fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n%d ",(int)age);
+	fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n%d ",(int)age);
+
+	for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++)
+	  fprintf(ficresprob,"%11.3e (%11.3e) ",mu[i][(int) age],sqrt(varpij[i][i][(int)age]));
+	for (i=1; i<=(nlstate)*(nlstate+ndeath);i++){
+	  fprintf(ficresprobcov,"%11.3e ",mu[i][(int) age]);
+	  fprintf(ficresprobcor,"%11.3e ",mu[i][(int) age]);
+	}
+	i=0;
+	for (k=1; k<=(nlstate);k++){
+ 	  for (l=1; l<=(nlstate+ndeath);l++){ 
+ 	    i=i++;
+	    fprintf(ficresprobcov,"\n%d %d-%d",(int)age,k,l);
+	    fprintf(ficresprobcor,"\n%d %d-%d",(int)age,k,l);
+	    for (j=1; j<=i;j++){
+	      fprintf(ficresprobcov," %11.3e",varpij[i][j][(int)age]);
+	      fprintf(ficresprobcor," %11.3e",varpij[i][j][(int) age]/sqrt(varpij[i][i][(int) age])/sqrt(varpij[j][j][(int)age]));
+	    }
+	  }
+	}/* end of loop for state */
+      } /* end of loop for age */
+
+      /* Confidence intervalle of pij  */
+      /*
+      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset noparametric;unset label");
+      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;unset log x; set xlabel \"Age\";set ylabel \"probability (year-1)\"");
+      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65");
+      fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>Probability with  confidence intervals expressed in year<sup>-1</sup> :<a href=\"pijgr%s.png\">pijgr%s.png</A>, ",optionfilefiname,optionfilefiname);
+      fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br><img src=\"pijgr%s.png\"> ",optionfilefiname);
+      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"pijgr%s.png\"",optionfilefiname);
+      fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot \"%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",k1,k2,xfilevarprob);
+      */
+
+      /* Drawing ellipsoids of confidence of two variables p(k1-l1,k2-l2)*/
+      first1=1;
+      for (k2=1; k2<=(nlstate);k2++){
+	for (l2=1; l2<=(nlstate+ndeath);l2++){ 
+	  if(l2==k2) continue;
+	  j=(k2-1)*(nlstate+ndeath)+l2;
+	  for (k1=1; k1<=(nlstate);k1++){
+	    for (l1=1; l1<=(nlstate+ndeath);l1++){ 
+	      if(l1==k1) continue;
+	      i=(k1-1)*(nlstate+ndeath)+l1;
+	      if(i<=j) continue;
+	      for (age=bage; age<=fage; age ++){ 
+		if ((int)age %5==0){
+		  v1=varpij[i][i][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
+		  v2=varpij[j][j][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
+		  cv12=varpij[i][j][(int)age]/stepm*YEARM/stepm*YEARM;
+		  mu1=mu[i][(int) age]/stepm*YEARM ;
+		  mu2=mu[j][(int) age]/stepm*YEARM;
+		  c12=cv12/sqrt(v1*v2);
+		  /* Computing eigen value of matrix of covariance */
+		  lc1=((v1+v2)+sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;
+		  lc2=((v1+v2)-sqrt((v1+v2)*(v1+v2) - 4*(v1*v2-cv12*cv12)))/2.;
+		  /* Eigen vectors */
+		  v11=(1./sqrt(1+(v1-lc1)*(v1-lc1)/cv12/cv12));
+		  /*v21=sqrt(1.-v11*v11); *//* error */
+		  v21=(lc1-v1)/cv12*v11;
+		  v12=-v21;
+		  v22=v11;
+		  tnalp=v21/v11;
+		  if(first1==1){
+		    first1=0;
+		    printf("%d %d%d-%d%d mu %.4e %.4e Var %.4e %.4e cor %.3f cov %.4e Eig %.3e %.3e 1stv %.3f %.3f tang %.3f\nOthers in log...\n",(int) age,k1,l1,k2,l2,mu1,mu2,v1,v2,c12,cv12,lc1,lc2,v11,v21,tnalp);
+		  }
+		  fprintf(ficlog,"%d %d%d-%d%d mu %.4e %.4e Var %.4e %.4e cor %.3f cov %.4e Eig %.3e %.3e 1stv %.3f %.3f tan %.3f\n",(int) age,k1,l1,k2,l2,mu1,mu2,v1,v2,c12,cv12,lc1,lc2,v11,v21,tnalp);
+		  /*printf(fignu*/
+		  /* mu1+ v11*lc1*cost + v12*lc2*sin(t) */
+		  /* mu2+ v21*lc1*cost + v22*lc2*sin(t) */
+		  if(first==1){
+		    first=0;
+ 		    fprintf(ficgp,"\nset parametric;unset label");
+		    fprintf(ficgp,"\nset log y;set log x; set xlabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\";set ylabel \"p%1d%1d (year-1)\"",k1,l1,k2,l2);
+		    fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65");
+		    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>Ellipsoids of confidence cov(p%1d%1d,p%1d%1d) expressed in year<sup>-1</sup> :<a href=\"varpijgr%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\">varpijgr%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png</A>, ",k1,l1,k2,l2,optionfilefiname, j1,k1,l1,k2,l2,optionfilefiname, j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
+		    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br><img src=\"varpijgr%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\"> ",optionfilefiname, j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
+		    fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br> Correlation at age %d (%.3f),",(int) age, c12);
+		    fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"varpijgr%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\"",optionfilefiname, j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
+		    fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu1,mu2);
+		    fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k1,l1,k2,l2);
+		    fprintf(ficgp,"\nplot [-pi:pi] %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not",\
+			    mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(lc2),\
+			    mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v22,sqrt(lc2));
+		  }else{
+		    first=0;
+		    fprintf(fichtm," %d (%.3f),",(int) age, c12);
+		    fprintf(ficgp,"\n# Age %d, p%1d%1d - p%1d%1d",(int) age, k1,l1,k2,l2);
+		    fprintf(ficgp,"\nset label \"%d\" at %11.3e,%11.3e center",(int) age, mu1,mu2);
+		    fprintf(ficgp,"\nreplot %11.3e+ %.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)), %11.3e +%.3f*(%11.3e*%11.3e*cos(t)+%11.3e*%11.3e*sin(t)) not",\
+			    mu1,std,v11,sqrt(lc1),v12,sqrt(lc2),\
+			    mu2,std,v21,sqrt(lc1),v22,sqrt(lc2));
+		  }/* if first */
+		} /* age mod 5 */
+	      } /* end loop age */
+	      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"varpijgr%s%d%1d%1d-%1d%1d.png\";replot;",optionfilefiname, j1,k1,l1,k2,l2);
+	      first=1;
+	    } /*l12 */
+	  } /* k12 */
+	} /*l1 */
+      }/* k1 */
+    } /* loop covariates */
+    free_ma3x(varpij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath,(int) bage, (int)fage);
+    free_vector(gp,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
+    free_vector(gm,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath));
+    free_matrix(mu,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),(int) bage, (int)fage);
+    free_matrix(trgradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
+    free_matrix(gradg,1,(nlstate+ndeath)*(nlstate+ndeath),1,npar);
+  }
+  free_vector(xp,1,npar);
+  fclose(ficresprob);
+  fclose(ficresprobcov);
+  fclose(ficresprobcor);
+  fclose(ficgp);
+  fclose(fichtm);
+}
+
+
+/******************* Printing html file ***********/
+void printinghtml(char fileres[], char title[], char datafile[], int firstpass, \
+		  int lastpass, int stepm, int weightopt, char model[],\
+		  int imx,int jmin, int jmax, double jmeanint,char rfileres[],\
+		  int popforecast, int estepm ,\
+		  double jprev1, double mprev1,double anprev1, \
+		  double jprev2, double mprev2,double anprev2){
+  int jj1, k1, i1, cpt;
+  /*char optionfilehtm[FILENAMELENGTH];*/
+  if((fichtm=fopen(optionfilehtm,"a"))==NULL)    {
+    printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtm), exit(0);
+    fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtm), exit(0);
+  }
+
+   fprintf(fichtm,"<ul><li><h4>Result files (first order: no variance)</h4>\n
+ - Observed prevalence in each state (during the period defined between %.lf/%.lf/%.lf and %.lf/%.lf/%.lf): <a href=\"p%s\">p%s</a> <br>\n
+ - Estimated transition probabilities over %d (stepm) months: <a href=\"pij%s\">pij%s</a><br>\n
+ - Stable prevalence in each health state: <a href=\"pl%s\">pl%s</a> <br>\n
+ - Life expectancies by age and initial health status (estepm=%2d months): 
+   <a href=\"e%s\">e%s</a> <br>\n</li>", \
+  jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,fileres,fileres,stepm,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,estepm,fileres,fileres);
+
+fprintf(fichtm," \n<ul><li><b>Graphs</b></li><p>");
+
+ m=cptcoveff;
+ if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
+
+ jj1=0;
+ for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){
+   for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
+     jj1++;
+     if (cptcovn > 0) {
+       fprintf(fichtm,"<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">************ Results for covariates");
+       for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++) 
+	 fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtab[jj1][cpt]]);
+       fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
+     }
+     /* Pij */
+     fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i %d (stepm) months before: pe%s%d1.png<br>
+<img src=\"pe%s%d1.png\">",stepm,strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1);     
+     /* Quasi-incidences */
+     fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Pij or Conditional probabilities to be observed in state j being in state i %d (stepm) months before but expressed in per year i.e. quasi incidences if stepm is small and probabilities too: pe%s%d2.png<br>
+<img src=\"pe%s%d2.png\">",stepm,strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1); 
+       /* Stable prevalence in each health state */
+       for(cpt=1; cpt<nlstate;cpt++){
+	 fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Stable prevalence in each health state : p%s%d%d.png<br>
+<img src=\"p%s%d%d.png\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1);
+       }
+     for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
+        fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Health life expectancies by age and initial health state (%d): exp%s%d%d.png <br>
+<img src=\"exp%s%d%d.png\">",cpt,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1);
+     }
+     fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br>- Total life expectancy by age and
+health expectancies in states (1) and (2): e%s%d.png<br>
+<img src=\"e%s%d.png\">",strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),jj1);
+   } /* end i1 */
+ }/* End k1 */
+ fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
+
+
+ fprintf(fichtm,"\n<br><li><h4> Result files (second order: variances)</h4>\n
+ - Parameter file with estimated parameters and covariance matrix: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a> <br>\n
+ - Variance of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"prob%s\">prob%s</a> <br>\n
+ - Variance-covariance of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"probcov%s\">probcov%s</a> <br>\n
+ - Correlation matrix of one-step probabilities: <a href=\"probcor%s\">probcor%s</a> <br>\n
+ - Variances and covariances of life expectancies by age and initial health status (estepm=%d months): <a href=\"v%s\">v%s</a><br>\n 
+ - Health expectancies with their variances (no covariance): <a href=\"t%s\">t%s</a> <br>\n
+ - Standard deviation of stable prevalences: <a href=\"vpl%s\">vpl%s</a> <br>\n",rfileres,rfileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres, estepm, fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres);
+
+ if(popforecast==1) fprintf(fichtm,"\n
+ - Prevalences forecasting: <a href=\"f%s\">f%s</a> <br>\n
+ - Population forecasting (if popforecast=1): <a href=\"pop%s\">pop%s</a> <br>\n
+	<br>",fileres,fileres,fileres,fileres);
+ else 
+   fprintf(fichtm,"\n No population forecast: popforecast = %d (instead of 1) or stepm = %d (instead of 1) or model=%s (instead of .)<br><br></li>\n",popforecast, stepm, model);
+fprintf(fichtm," <ul><li><b>Graphs</b></li><p>");
+
+ m=cptcoveff;
+ if (cptcovn < 1) {m=1;ncodemax[1]=1;}
+
+ jj1=0;
+ for(k1=1; k1<=m;k1++){
+   for(i1=1; i1<=ncodemax[k1];i1++){
+     jj1++;
+     if (cptcovn > 0) {
+       fprintf(fichtm,"<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">************ Results for covariates");
+       for (cpt=1; cpt<=cptcoveff;cpt++) 
+	 fprintf(fichtm," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[cpt],nbcode[Tvaraff[cpt]][codtab[jj1][cpt]]);
+       fprintf(fichtm," ************\n<hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">");
+     }
+     for(cpt=1; cpt<=nlstate;cpt++) {
+       fprintf(fichtm,"<br>- Observed and stationary prevalence (with confident
+interval) in state (%d): v%s%d%d.png <br>
+<img src=\"v%s%d%d.png\">",cpt,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1,strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,jj1);  
+     }
+   } /* end i1 */
+ }/* End k1 */
+ fprintf(fichtm,"</ul>");
+fclose(fichtm);
+}
+
+/******************* Gnuplot file **************/
+void printinggnuplot(char fileres[], double ageminpar, double agemaxpar, double fage , char pathc[], double p[]){
+
+  int m,cpt,k1,i,k,j,jk,k2,k3,ij,l;
+  int ng;
+  if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"a"))==NULL) {
+    printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot);
+    fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot);
+  }
+
+  /*#ifdef windows */
+    fprintf(ficgp,"cd \"%s\" \n",pathc);
+    /*#endif */
+m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
+  
+ /* 1eme*/
+  for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {
+   for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) {
+     fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"v%s%d%d.png\" \n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);
+     fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"vpl%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",ageminpar,fage,fileres,k1-1,k1-1);
+
+     for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
+       if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
+       else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
+     }
+     fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"Stable prevalence\" w l 0,\"vpl%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+2*$3) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);
+     for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
+       if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
+       else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
+     } 
+     fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"95\%% CI\" w l 1,\"vpl%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-2*$3) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1); 
+     for (i=1; i<= nlstate ; i ++) {
+       if (i==cpt) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
+       else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
+     }  
+     fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 1,\"p%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d) t\"Observed prevalence \" w l 2",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,2+4*(cpt-1));
+   }
+  }
+  /*2 eme*/
+  
+  for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { 
+    fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"e%s%d.png\" \n",strtok(optionfile, "."),k1);
+    fprintf(ficgp,"set ylabel \"Years\" \nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nplot [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,fage);
+    
+    for (i=1; i<= nlstate+1 ; i ++) {
+      k=2*i;
+      fprintf(ficgp,"\"t%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:2 \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);
+      for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
+	if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
+	else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
+      }   
+      if (i== 1) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"TLE\" w l ,");
+      else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"LE in state (%d)\" w l ,",i-1);
+      fprintf(ficgp,"\"t%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2-$3*2) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);
+      for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
+	if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
+	else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
+      }   
+      fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");
+      fprintf(ficgp,"\"t%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($2+$3*2) \"\%%lf",fileres,k1-1,k1-1);
+      for (j=1; j<= nlstate+1 ; j ++) {
+	if (j==i) fprintf(ficgp," \%%lf (\%%lf)");
+	else fprintf(ficgp," \%%*lf (\%%*lf)");
+      }   
+      if (i== (nlstate+1)) fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0");
+      else fprintf(ficgp,"\" t\"\" w l 0,");
+    }
+  }
+  
+  /*3eme*/
+  
+  for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { 
+    for (cpt=1; cpt<= nlstate ; cpt ++) {
+      k=2+nlstate*(2*cpt-2);
+      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"exp%s%d%d.png\" \n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);
+      fprintf(ficgp,"set ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d1\" w l",ageminpar,fage,fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,cpt);
+      /*fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d-2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);
+	for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");
+	fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);
+	fprintf(ficgp,",\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:($%d+2*$%d) \"\%%lf ",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k,k+1);
+	for (i=1; i<= nlstate*2 ; i ++) fprintf(ficgp,"\%%lf (\%%lf) ");
+	fprintf(ficgp,"\" t \"e%d1\" w l",cpt);
+	
+      */
+      for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {
+	fprintf(ficgp," ,\"e%s\" every :::%d::%d u 1:%d t \"e%d%d\" w l",fileres,k1-1,k1-1,k+2*i,cpt,i+1);
+	
+      } 
+    }
+  }
+  
+  /* CV preval stat */
+  for (k1=1; k1<= m ; k1 ++) { 
+    for (cpt=1; cpt<nlstate ; cpt ++) {
+      k=3;
+      fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"p%s%d%d.png\" \n",strtok(optionfile, "."),cpt,k1);
+      fprintf(ficgp,"set xlabel \"Age\" \nset ylabel \"Probability\" \nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nplot [%.f:%.f] \"pij%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",ageminpar,agemaxpar,fileres,k1,k+cpt+1,k+1);
+      
+      for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++)
+	fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",k+i+1);
+      fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l",cpt,cpt+1);
+      
+      l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;
+      fprintf(ficgp,",\"pij%s\" u ($1==%d ? ($3):1/0):($%d/($%d",fileres,k1,l+cpt+1,l+1);
+      for (i=1; i< nlstate ; i ++) {
+	l=3+(nlstate+ndeath)*cpt;
+	fprintf(ficgp,"+$%d",l+i+1);
+      }
+      fprintf(ficgp,")) t\"prev(%d,%d)\" w l\n",cpt+1,cpt+1);   
+    } 
+  }  
+  
+  /* proba elementaires */
+  for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
+    for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
+      if (k != i) {
+	for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
+	  fprintf(ficgp,"p%d=%f ",jk,p[jk]);
+	  jk++; 
+	  fprintf(ficgp,"\n");
+	}
+      }
+    }
+   }
+
+   for(ng=1; ng<=2;ng++){ /* Number of graphics: first is probabilities second is incidence per year*/
+     for(jk=1; jk <=m; jk++) {
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"pe%s%d%d.png\" \n",strtok(optionfile, "."),jk,ng); 
+       if (ng==2)
+	 fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ylabel \"Quasi-incidence per year\"\n");
+       else
+	 fprintf(ficgp,"\nset title \"Probability\"\n");
+       fprintf(ficgp,"\nset ter png small\nset size 0.65,0.65\nset log y\nplot  [%.f:%.f] ",ageminpar,agemaxpar);
+       i=1;
+       for(k2=1; k2<=nlstate; k2++) {
+	 k3=i;
+	 for(k=1; k<=(nlstate+ndeath); k++) {
+	   if (k != k2){
+	     if(ng==2)
+	       fprintf(ficgp," %f*exp(p%d+p%d*x",YEARM/stepm,i,i+1);
+	     else
+	       fprintf(ficgp," exp(p%d+p%d*x",i,i+1);
+	     ij=1;
+	     for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++) {
+	       if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {
+		 fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);
+		 ij++;
+	       }
+	       else
+		 fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",i+j-1,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);
+	     }
+	     fprintf(ficgp,")/(1");
+	     
+	     for(k1=1; k1 <=nlstate; k1++){   
+	       fprintf(ficgp,"+exp(p%d+p%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel,k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1);
+	       ij=1;
+	       for(j=3; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
+		 if(((j-2)==Tage[ij]) &&(ij <=cptcovage)) {
+		   fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d*x",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][Tvar[j-2]]]);
+		   ij++;
+		 }
+		 else
+		   fprintf(ficgp,"+p%d*%d",k3+(k1-1)*ncovmodel+1+j-2,nbcode[Tvar[j-2]][codtab[jk][j-2]]);
+	       }
+	       fprintf(ficgp,")");
+	     }
+	     fprintf(ficgp,") t \"p%d%d\" ", k2,k);
+	     if ((k+k2)!= (nlstate*2+ndeath)) fprintf(ficgp,",");
+	     i=i+ncovmodel;
+	   }
+	 } /* end k */
+       } /* end k2 */
+     } /* end jk */
+   } /* end ng */
+   fclose(ficgp); 
+}  /* end gnuplot */
+
+
+/*************** Moving average **************/
+int movingaverage(double ***probs, double bage,double fage, double ***mobaverage, int mobilav){
+
+  int i, cpt, cptcod;
+  int mobilavrange, mob;
+  double age;
+  if(mobilav==1||mobilav ==3 ||mobilav==5 ||mobilav== 7){
+    if(mobilav==1) mobilavrange=5; /* default */
+    else mobilavrange=mobilav;
+    for (age=bage; age<=fage; age++)
+      for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+	for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++)
+	  mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
+    /* We keep the original values on the extreme ages bage, fage and for 
+       fage+1 and bage-1 we use a 3 terms moving average; for fage+2 bage+2
+       we use a 5 terms etc. until the borders are no more concerned. 
+    */ 
+    for (mob=3;mob <=mobilavrange;mob=mob+2){
+      for (age=bage+(mob-1)/2; age<=fage-(mob-1)/2; age++){
+	for (i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+	  for (cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){
+	    mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] =probs[(int)age][i][cptcod];
+	      for (cpt=1;cpt<=(mob-1)/2;cpt++){
+		mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age-cpt][i][cptcod];
+		mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod] +=probs[(int)age+cpt][i][cptcod];
+	      }
+	    mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][cptcod]/mob;
+	  }
+	}
+      }/* end age */
+    }/* end mob */
+  }else return -1;
+  return 0;
+}/* End movingaverage */
+
+
+/************** Forecasting ******************/
+prevforecast(char fileres[], double anproj1,double mproj1,double jproj1,double ageminpar, double agemax,double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double agedeb, double fage, int popforecast, char popfile[], double anproj2,double p[], int i2){
+  
+  int cpt, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j,k,c, cptcod, i,h;
+  int *popage;
+  double calagedate, agelim, kk1, kk2, yp,yp1,yp2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean;
+  double *popeffectif,*popcount;
+  double ***p3mat;
+  double ***mobaverage;
+  char fileresf[FILENAMELENGTH];
+
+ agelim=AGESUP;
+calagedate=(anproj1+mproj1/12.+jproj1/365.-dateintmean)*YEARM;
+
+  prevalence(ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,dateprev1,dateprev2, calagedate);
+ 
+ 
+  strcpy(fileresf,"f"); 
+  strcat(fileresf,fileres);
+  if((ficresf=fopen(fileresf,"w"))==NULL) {
+    printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);
+    fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", fileresf);
+  }
+  printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);
+  fprintf(ficlog,"Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", fileresf);
+
+  if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
+
+  if (mobilav!=0) {
+    mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+    if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
+      fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
+      printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
+    }
+  }
+
+  stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
+  if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;
+  
+  agelim=AGESUP;
+  
+  hstepm=1;
+  hstepm=hstepm/stepm; 
+  yp1=modf(dateintmean,&yp);
+  anprojmean=yp;
+  yp2=modf((yp1*12),&yp);
+  mprojmean=yp;
+  yp1=modf((yp2*30.5),&yp);
+  jprojmean=yp;
+  if(jprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;
+  if(mprojmean==0) jprojmean=1;
+  
+  fprintf(ficresf,"# Estimated date of observed prevalence: %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean); 
+  
+  for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i2;cptcov++){
+    for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){
+      k=k+1;
+      fprintf(ficresf,"\n#******");
+      for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
+	fprintf(ficresf," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
+      }
+      fprintf(ficresf,"******\n");
+      fprintf(ficresf,"# StartingAge FinalAge");
+      for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) fprintf(ficresf," P.%d",j);
+      
+      
+      for (cpt=0; cpt<=(anproj2-anproj1);cpt++) { 
+	fprintf(ficresf,"\n");
+	fprintf(ficresf,"\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1+cpt);   
+
+     	for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedate %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedate %12)/12.); agedeb--){ 
+	  nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); 
+	  nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; 
+	  
+	  p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+	  oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
+	  hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
+	
+	  for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
+	    if (h==(int) (calagedate+YEARM*cpt)) {
+	      fprintf(ficresf,"\n %.f %.f ",anproj1+cpt,agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
+	    } 
+	    for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
+	      kk1=0.;kk2=0;
+	      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {	      
+		if (mobilav==1) 
+		  kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];
+		else {
+		  kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agedeb+1)][i][cptcod];
+		}
+		
+	      }
+	      if (h==(int)(calagedate+12*cpt)){
+		fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", kk1);
+	     		
+	      }
+	    }
+	  }
+	  free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+	}
+      }
+    }
+  }
+       
+  if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+
+  fclose(ficresf);
+}
+/************** Forecasting ******************/
+populforecast(char fileres[], double anpyram,double mpyram,double jpyram,double ageminpar, double agemax,double dateprev1, double dateprev2, int mobilav, double agedeb, double fage, int popforecast, char popfile[], double anpyram1,double p[], int i2){
+  
+  int cpt, stepsize, hstepm, nhstepm, j,k,c, cptcod, i,h;
+  int *popage;
+  double calagedate, agelim, kk1, kk2, yp,yp1,yp2,jprojmean,mprojmean,anprojmean;
+  double *popeffectif,*popcount;
+  double ***p3mat,***tabpop,***tabpopprev;
+  double ***mobaverage;
+  char filerespop[FILENAMELENGTH];
+
+  tabpop= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+  tabpopprev= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+  agelim=AGESUP;
+  calagedate=(anpyram+mpyram/12.+jpyram/365.-dateintmean)*YEARM;
+  
+  prevalence(ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,dateprev1,dateprev2, calagedate);
+  
+  
+  strcpy(filerespop,"pop"); 
+  strcat(filerespop,fileres);
+  if((ficrespop=fopen(filerespop,"w"))==NULL) {
+    printf("Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", filerespop);
+    fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with forecast resultfile: %s\n", filerespop);
+  }
+  printf("Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", filerespop);
+  fprintf(ficlog,"Computing forecasting: result on file '%s' \n", filerespop);
+
+  if (cptcoveff==0) ncodemax[cptcoveff]=1;
+
+  if (mobilav!=0) {
+    mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+    if (movingaverage(probs, ageminpar, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
+      fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
+      printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
+    }
+  }
+
+  stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
+  if (stepm<=12) stepsize=1;
+  
+  agelim=AGESUP;
+  
+  hstepm=1;
+  hstepm=hstepm/stepm; 
+  
+  if (popforecast==1) {
+    if((ficpop=fopen(popfile,"r"))==NULL) {
+      printf("Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);exit(0);
+      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with population file : %s\n",popfile);exit(0);
+    } 
+    popage=ivector(0,AGESUP);
+    popeffectif=vector(0,AGESUP);
+    popcount=vector(0,AGESUP);
+    
+    i=1;   
+    while ((c=fscanf(ficpop,"%d %lf\n",&popage[i],&popcount[i])) != EOF) i=i+1;
+   
+    imx=i;
+    for (i=1; i<imx;i++) popeffectif[popage[i]]=popcount[i];
+  }
+
+  for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i2;cptcov++){
+   for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcoveff];cptcod++){
+      k=k+1;
+      fprintf(ficrespop,"\n#******");
+      for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
+	fprintf(ficrespop," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
+      }
+      fprintf(ficrespop,"******\n");
+      fprintf(ficrespop,"# Age");
+      for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) fprintf(ficrespop," P.%d",j);
+      if (popforecast==1)  fprintf(ficrespop," [Population]");
+      
+      for (cpt=0; cpt<=0;cpt++) { 
+	fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);   
+	
+     	for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedate %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedate %12)/12.); agedeb--){ 
+	  nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); 
+	  nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; 
+	  
+	  p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+	  oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
+	  hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
+	
+	  for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
+	    if (h==(int) (calagedate+YEARM*cpt)) {
+	      fprintf(ficrespop,"\n %3.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
+	    } 
+	    for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
+	      kk1=0.;kk2=0;
+	      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {	      
+		if (mobilav==1) 
+		  kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];
+		else {
+		  kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agedeb+1)][i][cptcod];
+		}
+	      }
+	      if (h==(int)(calagedate+12*cpt)){
+		tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod]=kk1;
+		  /*fprintf(ficrespop," %.3f", kk1);
+		    if (popforecast==1) fprintf(ficrespop," [%.f]", kk1*popeffectif[(int)agedeb+1]);*/
+	      }
+	    }
+	    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++){
+	      kk1=0.;
+		for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++){
+		  kk1= kk1+tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][j][cptcod]; 
+		}
+		  tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]=tabpop[(int)(agedeb)][i][cptcod]/kk1*popeffectif[(int)(agedeb+(calagedate+12*cpt)*hstepm/YEARM*stepm-1)];
+	    }
+
+	    if (h==(int)(calagedate+12*cpt)) for(j=1; j<=nlstate;j++) 
+	      fprintf(ficrespop," %15.2f",tabpopprev[(int)(agedeb+1)][j][cptcod]);
+	  }
+	  free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+	}
+      }
+ 
+  /******/
+
+      for (cpt=1; cpt<=(anpyram1-anpyram);cpt++) { 
+	fprintf(ficrespop,"\n\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jpyram,mpyram,anpyram+cpt);   
+	for (agedeb=(fage-((int)calagedate %12/12.)); agedeb>=(ageminpar-((int)calagedate %12)/12.); agedeb--){ 
+	  nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); 
+	  nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; 
+	  
+	  p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+	  oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
+	  hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
+	  for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
+	    if (h==(int) (calagedate+YEARM*cpt)) {
+	      fprintf(ficresf,"\n %3.f ",agedeb+h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm);
+	    } 
+	    for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) {
+	      kk1=0.;kk2=0;
+	      for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) {	      
+		kk1=kk1+p3mat[i][j][h]*tabpopprev[(int)agedeb+1][i][cptcod];	
+	      }
+	      if (h==(int)(calagedate+12*cpt)) fprintf(ficresf," %15.2f", kk1);	
+	    }
+	  }
+	  free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+	}
+      }
+   } 
+  }
+ 
+  if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+
+  if (popforecast==1) {
+    free_ivector(popage,0,AGESUP);
+    free_vector(popeffectif,0,AGESUP);
+    free_vector(popcount,0,AGESUP);
+  }
+  free_ma3x(tabpop,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+  free_ma3x(tabpopprev,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+  fclose(ficrespop);
+}
+
+/***********************************************/
+/**************** Main Program *****************/
+/***********************************************/
+
+int main(int argc, char *argv[])
+{
+
+  int i,j, k, n=MAXN,iter,m,size,cptcode, cptcod;
+  double agedeb, agefin,hf;
+  double ageminpar=1.e20,agemin=1.e20, agemaxpar=-1.e20, agemax=-1.e20;
+
+  double fret;
+  double **xi,tmp,delta;
+
+  double dum; /* Dummy variable */
+  double ***p3mat;
+  double ***mobaverage;
+  int *indx;
+  char line[MAXLINE], linepar[MAXLINE];
+  char path[80],pathc[80],pathcd[80],pathtot[80],model[80];
+  int firstobs=1, lastobs=10;
+  int sdeb, sfin; /* Status at beginning and end */
+  int c,  h , cpt,l;
+  int ju,jl, mi;
+  int i1,j1, k1,k2,k3,jk,aa,bb, stepsize, ij;
+  int jnais,jdc,jint4,jint1,jint2,jint3,**outcome,**adl,*tab; 
+  int mobilav=0,popforecast=0;
+  int hstepm, nhstepm;
+  double jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,jpyram, mpyram,anpyram,jpyram1, mpyram1,anpyram1, calagedate;
+
+  double bage, fage, age, agelim, agebase;
+  double ftolpl=FTOL;
+  double **prlim;
+  double *severity;
+  double ***param; /* Matrix of parameters */
+  double  *p;
+  double **matcov; /* Matrix of covariance */
+  double ***delti3; /* Scale */
+  double *delti; /* Scale */
+  double ***eij, ***vareij;
+  double **varpl; /* Variances of prevalence limits by age */
+  double *epj, vepp;
+  double kk1, kk2;
+  double dateprev1, dateprev2,jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2;
+  
+
+  char *alph[]={"a","a","b","c","d","e"}, str[4];
+
+
+  char z[1]="c", occ;
+#include <sys/time.h>
+#include <time.h>
+  char stra[80], strb[80], strc[80], strd[80],stre[80],modelsav[80];
+ 
+  /* long total_usecs;
+  struct timeval start_time, end_time;
+  
+  gettimeofday(&start_time, (struct timezone*)0); */ /* at first time */
+  getcwd(pathcd, size);
+
+  printf("\n%s",version);
+  if(argc <=1){
+    printf("\nEnter the parameter file name: ");
+    scanf("%s",pathtot);
+  }
+  else{
+    strcpy(pathtot,argv[1]);
+  }
+  /*if(getcwd(pathcd, 80)!= NULL)printf ("Error pathcd\n");*/
+  /*cygwin_split_path(pathtot,path,optionfile);
+    printf("pathtot=%s, path=%s, optionfile=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile);*/
+  /* cutv(path,optionfile,pathtot,'\\');*/
+
+  split(pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
+   printf("pathtot=%s, path=%s, optionfile=%s optionfilext=%s optionfilefiname=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
+  chdir(path);
+  replace(pathc,path);
+
+/*-------- arguments in the command line --------*/
+
+  /* Log file */
+  strcat(filelog, optionfilefiname);
+  strcat(filelog,".log");    /* */
+  if((ficlog=fopen(filelog,"w"))==NULL)    {
+    printf("Problem with logfile %s\n",filelog);
+    goto end;
+  }
+  fprintf(ficlog,"Log filename:%s\n",filelog);
+  fprintf(ficlog,"\n%s",version);
+  fprintf(ficlog,"\nEnter the parameter file name: ");
+  fprintf(ficlog,"pathtot=%s, path=%s, optionfile=%s optionfilext=%s optionfilefiname=%s\n",pathtot,path,optionfile,optionfilext,optionfilefiname);
+  fflush(ficlog);
+
+  /* */
+  strcpy(fileres,"r");
+  strcat(fileres, optionfilefiname);
+  strcat(fileres,".txt");    /* Other files have txt extension */
+
+  /*---------arguments file --------*/
+
+  if((ficpar=fopen(optionfile,"r"))==NULL)    {
+    printf("Problem with optionfile %s\n",optionfile);
+    fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with optionfile %s\n",optionfile);
+    goto end;
+  }
+
+  strcpy(filereso,"o");
+  strcat(filereso,fileres);
+  if((ficparo=fopen(filereso,"w"))==NULL) {
+    printf("Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);
+    fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Output resultfile: %s\n", filereso);
+    goto end;
+  }
+
+  /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
+  while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
+    ungetc(c,ficpar);
+    fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
+    puts(line);
+    fputs(line,ficparo);
+  }
+  ungetc(c,ficpar);
+
+  fscanf(ficpar,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%lf stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d model=%s\n",title, datafile, &lastobs, &firstpass,&lastpass,&ftol, &stepm, &ncovcol, &nlstate,&ndeath, &maxwav, &mle, &weightopt,model);
+  printf("title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate,ndeath, maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
+  fprintf(ficparo,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle=%d weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol,stepm,ncovcol,nlstate,ndeath,maxwav, mle, weightopt,model);
+while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
+    ungetc(c,ficpar);
+    fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
+    puts(line);
+    fputs(line,ficparo);
+  }
+  ungetc(c,ficpar);
+  
+   
+  covar=matrix(0,NCOVMAX,1,n); 
+  cptcovn=0; 
+  if (strlen(model)>1) cptcovn=nbocc(model,'+')+1;
+
+  ncovmodel=2+cptcovn;
+  nvar=ncovmodel-1; /* Suppressing age as a basic covariate */
+  
+  /* Read guess parameters */
+  /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
+  while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
+    ungetc(c,ficpar);
+    fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
+    puts(line);
+    fputs(line,ficparo);
+  }
+  ungetc(c,ficpar);
+  
+  param= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
+    for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++)
+    for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath-1; j++){
+      fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);
+      fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
+      if(mle==1)
+	printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
+      fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i,j);
+      for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
+	fscanf(ficpar," %lf",&param[i][j][k]);
+	if(mle==1){
+	  printf(" %lf",param[i][j][k]);
+	  fprintf(ficlog," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
+	}
+	else
+	  fprintf(ficlog," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
+	fprintf(ficparo," %lf",param[i][j][k]);
+      }
+      fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
+      if(mle==1)
+	printf("\n");
+      fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+      fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
+    }
+  
+    npar= (nlstate+ndeath-1)*nlstate*ncovmodel;
+
+  p=param[1][1];
+  
+  /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
+  while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
+    ungetc(c,ficpar);
+    fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
+    puts(line);
+    fputs(line,ficparo);
+  }
+  ungetc(c,ficpar);
+
+  delti3= ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
+  delti=vector(1,npar); /* Scale of each paramater (output from hesscov) */
+  for(i=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
+    for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath-1; j++){
+      fscanf(ficpar,"%1d%1d",&i1,&j1);
+      printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
+      fprintf(ficparo,"%1d%1d",i1,j1);
+      for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
+	fscanf(ficpar,"%le",&delti3[i][j][k]);
+	printf(" %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
+	fprintf(ficparo," %le",delti3[i][j][k]);
+      }
+      fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
+      printf("\n");
+      fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
+    }
+  }
+  delti=delti3[1][1];
+  
+  /* Reads comments: lines beginning with '#' */
+  while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
+    ungetc(c,ficpar);
+    fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
+    puts(line);
+    fputs(line,ficparo);
+  }
+  ungetc(c,ficpar);
+  
+  matcov=matrix(1,npar,1,npar);
+  for(i=1; i <=npar; i++){
+    fscanf(ficpar,"%s",&str);
+    if(mle==1)
+      printf("%s",str);
+    fprintf(ficlog,"%s",str);
+    fprintf(ficparo,"%s",str);
+    for(j=1; j <=i; j++){
+      fscanf(ficpar," %le",&matcov[i][j]);
+      if(mle==1){
+	printf(" %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
+	fprintf(ficlog," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
+      }
+      else
+	fprintf(ficlog," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
+      fprintf(ficparo," %.5le",matcov[i][j]);
+    }
+    fscanf(ficpar,"\n");
+    if(mle==1)
+      printf("\n");
+    fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+    fprintf(ficparo,"\n");
+  }
+  for(i=1; i <=npar; i++)
+    for(j=i+1;j<=npar;j++)
+      matcov[i][j]=matcov[j][i];
+   
+  if(mle==1)
+    printf("\n");
+  fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+
+
+    /*-------- Rewriting paramater file ----------*/
+     strcpy(rfileres,"r");    /* "Rparameterfile */
+     strcat(rfileres,optionfilefiname);    /* Parameter file first name*/
+     strcat(rfileres,".");    /* */
+     strcat(rfileres,optionfilext);    /* Other files have txt extension */
+    if((ficres =fopen(rfileres,"w"))==NULL) {
+      printf("Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", fileres);goto end;
+      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem writing new parameter file: %s\n", fileres);goto end;
+    }
+    fprintf(ficres,"#%s\n",version);
+    
+    /*-------- data file ----------*/
+    if((fic=fopen(datafile,"r"))==NULL)    {
+      printf("Problem with datafile: %s\n", datafile);goto end;
+      fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with datafile: %s\n", datafile);goto end;
+    }
+
+    n= lastobs;
+    severity = vector(1,maxwav);
+    outcome=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);
+    num=ivector(1,n);
+    moisnais=vector(1,n);
+    annais=vector(1,n);
+    moisdc=vector(1,n);
+    andc=vector(1,n);
+    agedc=vector(1,n);
+    cod=ivector(1,n);
+    weight=vector(1,n);
+    for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0; /* Equal weights, 1 by default */
+    mint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);
+    anint=matrix(1,maxwav,1,n);
+    s=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);
+    adl=imatrix(1,maxwav+1,1,n);    
+    tab=ivector(1,NCOVMAX);
+    ncodemax=ivector(1,8);
+
+    i=1;
+    while (fgets(line, MAXLINE, fic) != NULL)    {
+      if ((i >= firstobs) && (i <=lastobs)) {
+	
+	for (j=maxwav;j>=1;j--){
+	  cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); s[j][i]=atoi(strb); 
+	  strcpy(line,stra);
+	  cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); anint[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
+	  cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); mint[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
+	}
+	
+	cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); andc[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
+	cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); moisdc[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
+
+	cutv(stra, strb,line,'/'); annais[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
+	cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); moisnais[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
+
+	cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); weight[i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
+	for (j=ncovcol;j>=1;j--){
+	  cutv(stra, strb,line,' '); covar[j][i]=(double)(atoi(strb)); strcpy(line,stra);
+	} 
+	num[i]=atol(stra);
+	
+	/*if((s[2][i]==2) && (s[3][i]==-1)&&(s[4][i]==9)){
+	  printf("%d %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]),weight[i], (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i])); ij=ij+1;}*/
+
+	i=i+1;
+      }
+    } 
+    /* printf("ii=%d", ij);
+       scanf("%d",i);*/
+  imx=i-1; /* Number of individuals */
+
+  /* for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
+    if ((s[1][i]==3) && (s[2][i]==2)) s[2][i]=3;
+    if ((s[2][i]==3) && (s[3][i]==2)) s[3][i]=3;
+    if ((s[3][i]==3) && (s[4][i]==2)) s[4][i]=3;
+    }*/
+   /*  for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){
+     if (s[4][i]==9)  s[4][i]=-1; 
+     printf("%d %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]), (weight[i]), (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]),  (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]),  (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]),  (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i]));}*/
+  
+ 
+  /* Calculation of the number of parameter from char model*/
+  Tvar=ivector(1,15); /* stores the number n of the covariates in Vm+Vn at 1 and m at 2 */
+  Tprod=ivector(1,15); 
+  Tvaraff=ivector(1,15); 
+  Tvard=imatrix(1,15,1,2);
+  Tage=ivector(1,15);      
+   
+  if (strlen(model) >1){
+    j=0, j1=0, k1=1, k2=1;
+    j=nbocc(model,'+');
+    j1=nbocc(model,'*');
+    cptcovn=j+1;
+    cptcovprod=j1;
+    
+    strcpy(modelsav,model); 
+    if ((strcmp(model,"age")==0) || (strcmp(model,"age*age")==0)){
+      printf("Error. Non available option model=%s ",model);
+      fprintf(ficlog,"Error. Non available option model=%s ",model);
+      goto end;
+    }
+    
+    for(i=(j+1); i>=1;i--){
+      cutv(stra,strb,modelsav,'+'); /* keeps in strb after the last + */ 
+      if (nbocc(modelsav,'+')==0) strcpy(strb,modelsav); /* and analyze it */
+      /*      printf("i=%d a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n",i, stra,strb,modelsav);*/
+      /*scanf("%d",i);*/
+      if (strchr(strb,'*')) {  /* Model includes a product */
+	cutv(strd,strc,strb,'*'); /* strd*strc  Vm*Vn (if not *age)*/
+	if (strcmp(strc,"age")==0) { /* Vn*age */
+	  cptcovprod--;
+	  cutv(strb,stre,strd,'V');
+	  Tvar[i]=atoi(stre); /* computes n in Vn and stores in Tvar*/
+	  cptcovage++;
+	    Tage[cptcovage]=i;
+	    /*printf("stre=%s ", stre);*/
+	}
+	else if (strcmp(strd,"age")==0) { /* or age*Vn */
+	  cptcovprod--;
+	  cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V');
+	  Tvar[i]=atoi(stre);
+	  cptcovage++;
+	  Tage[cptcovage]=i;
+	}
+	else {  /* Age is not in the model */
+	  cutv(strb,stre,strc,'V'); /* strc= Vn, stre is n*/
+	  Tvar[i]=ncovcol+k1;
+	  cutv(strb,strc,strd,'V'); /* strd was Vm, strc is m */
+	  Tprod[k1]=i;
+	  Tvard[k1][1]=atoi(strc); /* m*/
+	  Tvard[k1][2]=atoi(stre); /* n */
+	  Tvar[cptcovn+k2]=Tvard[k1][1];
+	  Tvar[cptcovn+k2+1]=Tvard[k1][2]; 
+	  for (k=1; k<=lastobs;k++) 
+	    covar[ncovcol+k1][k]=covar[atoi(stre)][k]*covar[atoi(strc)][k];
+	  k1++;
+	  k2=k2+2;
+	}
+      }
+      else { /* no more sum */
+	/*printf("d=%s c=%s b=%s\n", strd,strc,strb);*/
+       /*  scanf("%d",i);*/
+      cutv(strd,strc,strb,'V');
+      Tvar[i]=atoi(strc);
+      }
+      strcpy(modelsav,stra);  
+      /*printf("a=%s b=%s sav=%s\n", stra,strb,modelsav);
+	scanf("%d",i);*/
+    } /* end of loop + */
+  } /* end model */
+  
+  /* printf("tvar1=%d tvar2=%d tvar3=%d cptcovage=%d Tage=%d",Tvar[1],Tvar[2],Tvar[3],cptcovage,Tage[1]);
+  printf("cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);
+  fprintf(ficlog,"cptcovprod=%d ", cptcovprod);
+  scanf("%d ",i);*/
+    fclose(fic);
+
+    /*  if(mle==1){*/
+    if (weightopt != 1) { /* Maximisation without weights*/
+      for(i=1;i<=n;i++) weight[i]=1.0;
+    }
+    /*-calculation of age at interview from date of interview and age at death -*/
+    agev=matrix(1,maxwav,1,imx);
+
+    for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) {
+      for(m=2; (m<= maxwav); m++) {
+       if ((mint[m][i]== 99) && (s[m][i] <= nlstate)){
+	 anint[m][i]=9999;
+	 s[m][i]=-1;
+       }
+     if(moisdc[i]==99 && andc[i]==9999 & s[m][i]>nlstate) s[m][i]=-1;
+      }
+    }
+
+    for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {
+      agedc[i]=(moisdc[i]/12.+andc[i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+annais[i]);
+      for(m=1; (m<= maxwav); m++){
+	if(s[m][i] >0){
+	  if (s[m][i] >= nlstate+1) {
+	    if(agedc[i]>0)
+	      if(moisdc[i]!=99 && andc[i]!=9999)
+		agev[m][i]=agedc[i];
+	    /*if(moisdc[i]==99 && andc[i]==9999) s[m][i]=-1;*/
+	   else {
+	      if (andc[i]!=9999){
+	      printf("Warning negative age at death: %d line:%d\n",num[i],i);
+	      fprintf(ficlog,"Warning negative age at death: %d line:%d\n",num[i],i);
+	      agev[m][i]=-1;
+	      }
+	    }
+	  }
+	  else if(s[m][i] !=9){ /* Should no more exist */
+	    agev[m][i]=(mint[m][i]/12.+1./24.+anint[m][i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+1./24.+annais[i]);
+	    if(mint[m][i]==99 || anint[m][i]==9999)
+	      agev[m][i]=1;
+	    else if(agev[m][i] <agemin){ 
+	      agemin=agev[m][i];
+	      /*printf(" Min anint[%d][%d]=%.2f annais[%d]=%.2f, agemin=%.2f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], agemin);*/
+	    }
+	    else if(agev[m][i] >agemax){
+	      agemax=agev[m][i];
+	     /* printf(" anint[%d][%d]=%.0f annais[%d]=%.0f, agemax=%.0f\n",m,i,anint[m][i], i,annais[i], agemax);*/
+	    }
+	    /*agev[m][i]=anint[m][i]-annais[i];*/
+	    /*	 agev[m][i] = age[i]+2*m;*/
+	  }
+	  else { /* =9 */
+	    agev[m][i]=1;
+	    s[m][i]=-1;
+	  }
+	}
+	else /*= 0 Unknown */
+	  agev[m][i]=1;
+      }
+    
+    }
+    for (i=1; i<=imx; i++)  {
+      for(m=1; (m<= maxwav); m++){
+	if (s[m][i] > (nlstate+ndeath)) {
+	  printf("Error: on wave %d of individual %d status %d > (nlstate+ndeath)=(%d+%d)=%d\n",m,i,s[m][i],nlstate, ndeath, nlstate+ndeath);	
+	  fprintf(ficlog,"Error: on wave %d of individual %d status %d > (nlstate+ndeath)=(%d+%d)=%d\n",m,i,s[m][i],nlstate, ndeath, nlstate+ndeath);	
+	  goto end;
+	}
+      }
+    }
+
+printf("Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx, agemin, agemax);
+ fprintf(ficlog,"Total number of individuals= %d, Agemin = %.2f, Agemax= %.2f\n\n", imx, agemin, agemax); 
+
+    free_vector(severity,1,maxwav);
+    free_imatrix(outcome,1,maxwav+1,1,n);
+    free_vector(moisnais,1,n);
+    free_vector(annais,1,n);
+    /* free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);
+       free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n);*/
+    free_vector(moisdc,1,n);
+    free_vector(andc,1,n);
+
+   
+    wav=ivector(1,imx);
+    dh=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
+    mw=imatrix(1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
+   
+    /* Concatenates waves */
+      concatwav(wav, dh, mw, s, agedc, agev,  firstpass, lastpass, imx, nlstate, stepm);
+
+
+      Tcode=ivector(1,100);
+      nbcode=imatrix(0,NCOVMAX,0,NCOVMAX); 
+      ncodemax[1]=1;
+      if (cptcovn > 0) tricode(Tvar,nbcode,imx);
+      
+   codtab=imatrix(1,100,1,10);
+   h=0;
+   m=pow(2,cptcoveff);
+ 
+   for(k=1;k<=cptcoveff; k++){
+     for(i=1; i <=(m/pow(2,k));i++){
+       for(j=1; j <= ncodemax[k]; j++){
+	 for(cpt=1; cpt <=(m/pow(2,cptcoveff+1-k)); cpt++){
+	   h++;
+	   if (h>m) h=1;codtab[h][k]=j;codtab[h][Tvar[k]]=j;
+	   /*  printf("h=%d k=%d j=%d codtab[h][k]=%d tvar[k]=%d \n",h, k,j,codtab[h][k],Tvar[k]);*/
+	 } 
+       }
+     }
+   } 
+   /* printf("codtab[1][2]=%d codtab[2][2]=%d",codtab[1][2],codtab[2][2]); 
+      codtab[1][2]=1;codtab[2][2]=2; */
+   /* for(i=1; i <=m ;i++){ 
+      for(k=1; k <=cptcovn; k++){
+      printf("i=%d k=%d %d %d ",i,k,codtab[i][k], cptcoveff);
+      }
+      printf("\n");
+      }
+      scanf("%d",i);*/
+    
+   /* Calculates basic frequencies. Computes observed prevalence at single age
+       and prints on file fileres'p'. */
+
+    
+   
+    pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
+    oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
+    newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
+    savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
+    oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */
+     
+    /* For Powell, parameters are in a vector p[] starting at p[1]
+       so we point p on param[1][1] so that p[1] maps on param[1][1][1] */
+    p=param[1][1]; /* *(*(*(param +1)+1)+0) */
+
+    if(mle==1){
+    mlikeli(ficres,p, npar, ncovmodel, nlstate, ftol, func);
+    }
+    
+    /*--------- results files --------------*/
+    fprintf(ficres,"title=%s datafile=%s lastobs=%d firstpass=%d lastpass=%d\nftol=%e stepm=%d ncovcol=%d nlstate=%d ndeath=%d maxwav=%d mle= 0 weight=%d\nmodel=%s\n", title, datafile, lastobs, firstpass,lastpass,ftol, stepm, ncovcol, nlstate, ndeath, maxwav, weightopt,model);
+  
+
+   jk=1;
+   fprintf(ficres,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
+   printf("# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
+   fprintf(ficlog,"# Parameters nlstate*nlstate*ncov a12*1 + b12 * age + ...\n");
+   for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
+     for(k=1; k <=(nlstate+ndeath); k++){
+       if (k != i) 
+	 {
+	   printf("%d%d ",i,k);
+	   fprintf(ficlog,"%d%d ",i,k);
+	   fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d ",i,k);
+	   for(j=1; j <=ncovmodel; j++){
+	     printf("%f ",p[jk]);
+	     fprintf(ficlog,"%f ",p[jk]);
+	     fprintf(ficres,"%f ",p[jk]);
+	     jk++; 
+	   }
+	   printf("\n");
+	   fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+	   fprintf(ficres,"\n");
+	 }
+     }
+   }
+   if(mle==1){
+     /* Computing hessian and covariance matrix */
+     ftolhess=ftol; /* Usually correct */
+     hesscov(matcov, p, npar, delti, ftolhess, func);
+   }
+   fprintf(ficres,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
+   printf("# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
+   fprintf(ficlog,"# Scales (for hessian or gradient estimation)\n");
+   for(i=1,jk=1; i <=nlstate; i++){
+     for(j=1; j <=nlstate+ndeath; j++){
+       if (j!=i) {
+	 fprintf(ficres,"%1d%1d",i,j);
+	 printf("%1d%1d",i,j);
+	 fprintf(ficlog,"%1d%1d",i,j);
+	 for(k=1; k<=ncovmodel;k++){
+	   printf(" %.5e",delti[jk]);
+	   fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",delti[jk]);
+	   fprintf(ficres," %.5e",delti[jk]);
+	   jk++;
+	 }
+	 printf("\n");
+	 fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+	 fprintf(ficres,"\n");
+       }
+     }
+   }
+   
+   k=1;
+   fprintf(ficres,"# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
+   if(mle==1)
+     printf("# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
+   fprintf(ficlog,"# Covariance matrix \n# 121 Var(a12)\n# 122 Cov(b12,a12) Var(b12)\n#   ...\n# 232 Cov(b23,a12)  Cov(b23,b12) ... Var (b23)\n");
+   for(i=1;i<=npar;i++){
+     /*  if (k>nlstate) k=1;
+	 i1=(i-1)/(ncovmodel*nlstate)+1; 
+	 fprintf(ficres,"%s%d%d",alph[k],i1,tab[i]);
+	 printf("%s%d%d",alph[k],i1,tab[i]);*/
+     fprintf(ficres,"%3d",i);
+     if(mle==1)
+       printf("%3d",i);
+     fprintf(ficlog,"%3d",i);
+     for(j=1; j<=i;j++){
+       fprintf(ficres," %.5e",matcov[i][j]);
+       if(mle==1)
+	 printf(" %.5e",matcov[i][j]);
+       fprintf(ficlog," %.5e",matcov[i][j]);
+     }
+     fprintf(ficres,"\n");
+     if(mle==1)
+       printf("\n");
+     fprintf(ficlog,"\n");
+     k++;
+   }
+   
+   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
+     ungetc(c,ficpar);
+     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
+     puts(line);
+     fputs(line,ficparo);
+   }
+   ungetc(c,ficpar);
+   estepm=0;
+   fscanf(ficpar,"agemin=%lf agemax=%lf bage=%lf fage=%lf estepm=%d\n",&ageminpar,&agemaxpar, &bage, &fage, &estepm);
+   if (estepm==0 || estepm < stepm) estepm=stepm;
+   if (fage <= 2) {
+     bage = ageminpar;
+     fage = agemaxpar;
+   }
+   
+   fprintf(ficres,"# agemin agemax for life expectancy, bage fage (if mle==0 ie no data nor Max likelihood).\n");
+   fprintf(ficres,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm);
+   fprintf(ficparo,"agemin=%.0f agemax=%.0f bage=%.0f fage=%.0f estepm=%d\n",ageminpar,agemaxpar,bage,fage, estepm);
+   
+   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
+     ungetc(c,ficpar);
+     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
+     puts(line);
+     fputs(line,ficparo);
+   }
+   ungetc(c,ficpar);
+  
+   fscanf(ficpar,"begin-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf end-prev-date=%lf/%lf/%lf mov_average=%d\n",&jprev1, &mprev1,&anprev1,&jprev2, &mprev2,&anprev2,&mobilav);
+   fprintf(ficparo,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,&mobilav);
+   fprintf(ficres,"begin-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf end-prev-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf mov_average=%d\n",jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2,&mobilav);
+   
+   while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
+     ungetc(c,ficpar);
+     fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
+     puts(line);
+     fputs(line,ficparo);
+   }
+   ungetc(c,ficpar);
+ 
+
+   dateprev1=anprev1+mprev1/12.+jprev1/365.;
+   dateprev2=anprev2+mprev2/12.+jprev2/365.;
+
+  fscanf(ficpar,"pop_based=%d\n",&popbased);
+  fprintf(ficparo,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);   
+  fprintf(ficres,"pop_based=%d\n",popbased);   
+  
+  while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
+    ungetc(c,ficpar);
+    fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
+    puts(line);
+    fputs(line,ficparo);
+  }
+  ungetc(c,ficpar);
+
+  fscanf(ficpar,"starting-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf final-proj-date=%lf/%lf/%lf\n",&jproj1,&mproj1,&anproj1,&jproj2,&mproj2,&anproj2);
+fprintf(ficparo,"starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2);
+fprintf(ficres,"starting-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf final-proj-date=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1,jproj2,mproj2,anproj2);
+
+
+while((c=getc(ficpar))=='#' && c!= EOF){
+    ungetc(c,ficpar);
+    fgets(line, MAXLINE, ficpar);
+    puts(line);
+    fputs(line,ficparo);
+  }
+  ungetc(c,ficpar);
+
+  fscanf(ficpar,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s popfiledate=%lf/%lf/%lf last-popfiledate=%lf/%lf/%lf\n",&popforecast,popfile,&jpyram,&mpyram,&anpyram,&jpyram1,&mpyram1,&anpyram1);
+  fprintf(ficparo,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s popfiledate=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf last-popfiledate=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",popforecast,popfile,jpyram,mpyram,anpyram,jpyram1,mpyram1,anpyram1);
+  fprintf(ficres,"popforecast=%d popfile=%s popfiledate=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf last-popfiledate=%.lf/%.lf/%.lf\n",popforecast,popfile,jpyram,mpyram,anpyram,jpyram1,mpyram1,anpyram1);
+
+ freqsummary(fileres, agemin, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,dateprev1,dateprev2,jprev1, mprev1,anprev1,jprev2, mprev2,anprev2);
+/*------------ gnuplot -------------*/
+ strcpy(optionfilegnuplot,optionfilefiname);
+ strcat(optionfilegnuplot,".gp");
+ if((ficgp=fopen(optionfilegnuplot,"w"))==NULL) {
+   printf("Problem with file %s",optionfilegnuplot);
+ }
+ else{
+   fprintf(ficgp,"\n# %s\n", version); 
+   fprintf(ficgp,"# %s\n", optionfilegnuplot); 
+   fprintf(ficgp,"set missing 'NaNq'\n");
+}
+ fclose(ficgp);
+ printinggnuplot(fileres, ageminpar,agemaxpar,fage, pathc,p);
+/*--------- index.htm --------*/
+
+  strcpy(optionfilehtm,optionfile);
+  strcat(optionfilehtm,".htm");
+  if((fichtm=fopen(optionfilehtm,"w"))==NULL)    {
+    printf("Problem with %s \n",optionfilehtm), exit(0);
+  }
+
+  fprintf(fichtm,"<body> <font size=\"2\">%s </font> <hr size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\"> \n
+Title=%s <br>Datafile=%s Firstpass=%d Lastpass=%d Stepm=%d Weight=%d Model=%s<br>\n
+\n
+Total number of observations=%d <br>\n
+Interval (in months) between two waves: Min=%d Max=%d Mean=%.2lf<br>\n
+<hr  size=\"2\" color=\"#EC5E5E\">
+ <ul><li><h4>Parameter files</h4>\n
+ - Copy of the parameter file: <a href=\"o%s\">o%s</a><br>\n
+ - Log file of the run: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a><br>\n
+ - Gnuplot file name: <a href=\"%s\">%s</a></ul>\n",version,title,datafile,firstpass,lastpass,stepm, weightopt,model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,fileres,fileres,filelog,filelog,optionfilegnuplot,optionfilegnuplot);
+  fclose(fichtm);
+
+ printinghtml(fileres,title,datafile, firstpass, lastpass, stepm, weightopt,model,imx,jmin,jmax,jmean,rfileres,popforecast,estepm,jprev1,mprev1,anprev1,jprev2,mprev2,anprev2);
+ 
+/*------------ free_vector  -------------*/
+ chdir(path);
+ 
+ free_ivector(wav,1,imx);
+ free_imatrix(dh,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);
+ free_imatrix(mw,1,lastpass-firstpass+1,1,imx);   
+ free_ivector(num,1,n);
+ free_vector(agedc,1,n);
+ /*free_matrix(covar,1,NCOVMAX,1,n);*/
+ fclose(ficparo);
+ fclose(ficres);
+
+
+  /*--------------- Prevalence limit  (stable prevalence) --------------*/
+  
+  strcpy(filerespl,"pl");
+  strcat(filerespl,fileres);
+  if((ficrespl=fopen(filerespl,"w"))==NULL) {
+    printf("Problem with stable prevalence resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);goto end;
+    fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with stable prevalence resultfile: %s\n", filerespl);goto end;
+  }
+  printf("Computing stable prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);
+  fprintf(ficlog,"Computing stable prevalence: result on file '%s' \n", filerespl);
+  fprintf(ficrespl,"#Stable prevalence \n");
+  fprintf(ficrespl,"#Age ");
+  for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrespl,"%d-%d ",i,i);
+  fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");
+  
+  prlim=matrix(1,nlstate,1,nlstate);
+  pmmij= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
+  oldms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
+  newms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
+  savms= matrix(1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath); /* creation */
+  oldm=oldms; newm=newms; savm=savms; /* Keeps fixed addresses to free */
+  k=0;
+  agebase=ageminpar;
+  agelim=agemaxpar;
+  ftolpl=1.e-10;
+  i1=cptcoveff;
+  if (cptcovn < 1){i1=1;}
+
+  for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
+    for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
+	k=k+1;
+	/*printf("cptcov=%d cptcod=%d codtab=%d nbcode=%d\n",cptcov, cptcod,Tcode[cptcode],codtab[cptcod][cptcov]);*/
+	fprintf(ficrespl,"\n#******");
+	printf("\n#******");
+	fprintf(ficlog,"\n#******");
+	for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) {
+	  fprintf(ficrespl," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
+	  printf(" V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
+	  fprintf(ficlog," V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
+	}
+	fprintf(ficrespl,"******\n");
+	printf("******\n");
+	fprintf(ficlog,"******\n");
+	
+	for (age=agebase; age<=agelim; age++){
+	  prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);
+	  fprintf(ficrespl,"%.0f",age );
+	  for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+	  fprintf(ficrespl," %.5f", prlim[i][i]);
+	  fprintf(ficrespl,"\n");
+	}
+      }
+    }
+  fclose(ficrespl);
+
+  /*------------- h Pij x at various ages ------------*/
+  
+  strcpy(filerespij,"pij");  strcat(filerespij,fileres);
+  if((ficrespij=fopen(filerespij,"w"))==NULL) {
+    printf("Problem with Pij resultfile: %s\n", filerespij);goto end;
+    fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Pij resultfile: %s\n", filerespij);goto end;
+  }
+  printf("Computing pij: result on file '%s' \n", filerespij);
+  fprintf(ficlog,"Computing pij: result on file '%s' \n", filerespij);
+  
+  stepsize=(int) (stepm+YEARM-1)/YEARM;
+  /*if (stepm<=24) stepsize=2;*/
+
+  agelim=AGESUP;
+  hstepm=stepsize*YEARM; /* Every year of age */
+  hstepm=hstepm/stepm; /* Typically 2 years, = 2/6 months = 4 */ 
+
+  /* hstepm=1;   aff par mois*/
+
+  k=0;
+  for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
+    for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
+      k=k+1;
+	fprintf(ficrespij,"\n#****** ");
+	for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
+	  fprintf(ficrespij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
+	fprintf(ficrespij,"******\n");
+	
+	for (agedeb=fage; agedeb>=bage; agedeb--){ /* If stepm=6 months */
+	  nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agedeb)*YEARM/stepm); /* Typically 20 years = 20*12/6=40 */ 
+	  nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; /* Typically 40/4=10 */
+
+	  /*	  nhstepm=nhstepm*YEARM; aff par mois*/
+
+	  p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+	  oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
+	  hpxij(p3mat,nhstepm,agedeb,hstepm,p,nlstate,stepm,oldm,savm, k);  
+	  fprintf(ficrespij,"# Age");
+	  for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+	    for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
+	      fprintf(ficrespij," %1d-%1d",i,j);
+	  fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
+	   for (h=0; h<=nhstepm; h++){
+	    fprintf(ficrespij,"%d %f %f",k,agedeb, agedeb+ h*hstepm/YEARM*stepm );
+	    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+	      for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++)
+		fprintf(ficrespij," %.5f", p3mat[i][j][h]);
+	    fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
+	     }
+	  free_ma3x(p3mat,1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm);
+	  fprintf(ficrespij,"\n");
+	}
+    }
+  }
+
+  varprob(optionfilefiname, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, (int) bage, (int) fage,k,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax);
+
+  fclose(ficrespij);
+
+
+  /*---------- Forecasting ------------------*/
+  if((stepm == 1) && (strcmp(model,".")==0)){
+    prevforecast(fileres, anproj1,mproj1,jproj1, agemin,agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2,mobilav, agedeb, fage, popforecast, popfile, anproj2,p, i1);
+    if (popforecast==1) populforecast(fileres, anpyram,mpyram,jpyram, agemin,agemax, dateprev1, dateprev2,mobilav, agedeb, fage, popforecast, popfile, anpyram1,p, i1);
+  } 
+  else{
+    erreur=108;
+    printf("Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model);
+    fprintf(ficlog,"Warning %d!! You can only forecast the prevalences if the optimization\n  has been performed with stepm = 1 (month) instead of %d or model=. instead of '%s'\n", erreur, stepm, model);
+  }
+  
+
+  /*---------- Health expectancies and variances ------------*/
+
+  strcpy(filerest,"t");
+  strcat(filerest,fileres);
+  if((ficrest=fopen(filerest,"w"))==NULL) {
+    printf("Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;
+    fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with total LE resultfile: %s\n", filerest);goto end;
+  }
+  printf("Computing Total LEs with variances: file '%s' \n", filerest); 
+  fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Total LEs with variances: file '%s' \n", filerest); 
+
+
+  strcpy(filerese,"e");
+  strcat(filerese,fileres);
+  if((ficreseij=fopen(filerese,"w"))==NULL) {
+    printf("Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);
+    fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with Health Exp. resultfile: %s\n", filerese); exit(0);
+  }
+  printf("Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);
+  fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Health Expectancies: result on file '%s' \n", filerese);
+
+  strcpy(fileresv,"v");
+  strcat(fileresv,fileres);
+  if((ficresvij=fopen(fileresv,"w"))==NULL) {
+    printf("Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);
+    fprintf(ficlog,"Problem with variance resultfile: %s\n", fileresv);exit(0);
+  }
+  printf("Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);
+  fprintf(ficlog,"Computing Variance-covariance of DFLEs: file '%s' \n", fileresv);
+  calagedate=-1;
+  prevalence(ageminpar, agemax, s, agev, nlstate, imx,Tvar,nbcode, ncodemax,mint,anint,dateprev1,dateprev2, calagedate);
+  if (mobilav!=0) {
+    mobaverage= ma3x(1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+    if (movingaverage(probs, bage, fage, mobaverage,mobilav)!=0){
+      fprintf(ficlog," Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
+      printf(" Error in movingaverage mobilav=%d\n",mobilav);
+    }
+  }
+
+  k=0;
+  for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
+    for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
+      k=k+1; 
+      fprintf(ficrest,"\n#****** ");
+      for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
+	fprintf(ficrest,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
+      fprintf(ficrest,"******\n");
+
+      fprintf(ficreseij,"\n#****** ");
+      for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
+	fprintf(ficreseij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
+      fprintf(ficreseij,"******\n");
+
+      fprintf(ficresvij,"\n#****** ");
+      for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
+	fprintf(ficresvij,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
+      fprintf(ficresvij,"******\n");
+
+      eij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
+      oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
+      evsij(fileres, eij, p, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int)fage, oldm, savm, k, estepm, delti, matcov);  
+ 
+      vareij=ma3x(1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
+      oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
+      varevsij(optionfilefiname, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k, estepm, cptcov,cptcod,0, mobilav);
+      if(popbased==1){
+	varevsij(optionfilefiname, vareij, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k, estepm, cptcov,cptcod,popbased,mobilav);
+       }
+
+ 
+      fprintf(ficrest,"#Total LEs with variances: e.. (std) ");
+      for (i=1;i<=nlstate;i++) fprintf(ficrest,"e.%d (std) ",i);
+      fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
+
+      epj=vector(1,nlstate+1);
+      for(age=bage; age <=fage ;age++){
+	prevalim(prlim, nlstate, p, age, oldm, savm,ftolpl,k);
+	if (popbased==1) {
+	  if(mobilav ==0){
+	    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+	      prlim[i][i]=probs[(int)age][i][k];
+	  }else{ /* mobilav */ 
+	    for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++)
+	      prlim[i][i]=mobaverage[(int)age][i][k];
+	  }
+	}
+	
+	fprintf(ficrest," %4.0f",age);
+	for(j=1, epj[nlstate+1]=0.;j <=nlstate;j++){
+	  for(i=1, epj[j]=0.;i <=nlstate;i++) {
+	    epj[j] += prlim[i][i]*eij[i][j][(int)age];
+	    /*  printf("%lf %lf ", prlim[i][i] ,eij[i][j][(int)age]);*/
+	  }
+	  epj[nlstate+1] +=epj[j];
+	}
+
+	for(i=1, vepp=0.;i <=nlstate;i++)
+	  for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++)
+	    vepp += vareij[i][j][(int)age];
+	fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[nlstate+1],sqrt(vepp));
+	for(j=1;j <=nlstate;j++){
+	  fprintf(ficrest," %7.3f (%7.3f)", epj[j],sqrt(vareij[j][j][(int)age]));
+	}
+	fprintf(ficrest,"\n");
+      }
+    }
+  }
+free_matrix(mint,1,maxwav,1,n);
+    free_matrix(anint,1,maxwav,1,n); free_imatrix(s,1,maxwav+1,1,n);
+    free_vector(weight,1,n);
+  fclose(ficreseij);
+  fclose(ficresvij);
+  fclose(ficrest);
+  fclose(ficpar);
+  free_vector(epj,1,nlstate+1);
+  
+  /*------- Variance of stable prevalence------*/   
+
+  strcpy(fileresvpl,"vpl");
+  strcat(fileresvpl,fileres);
+  if((ficresvpl=fopen(fileresvpl,"w"))==NULL) {
+    printf("Problem with variance of stable prevalence  resultfile: %s\n", fileresvpl);
+    exit(0);
+  }
+  printf("Computing Variance-covariance of stable prevalence: file '%s' \n", fileresvpl);
+
+  k=0;
+  for(cptcov=1;cptcov<=i1;cptcov++){
+    for(cptcod=1;cptcod<=ncodemax[cptcov];cptcod++){
+      k=k+1;
+      fprintf(ficresvpl,"\n#****** ");
+      for(j=1;j<=cptcoveff;j++) 
+	fprintf(ficresvpl,"V%d=%d ",Tvaraff[j],nbcode[Tvaraff[j]][codtab[k][j]]);
+      fprintf(ficresvpl,"******\n");
+      
+      varpl=matrix(1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int) fage);
+      oldm=oldms;savm=savms;
+     varprevlim(fileres, varpl, matcov, p, delti, nlstate, stepm, (int) bage, (int) fage, oldm, savm, prlim, ftolpl,k);
+    }
+ }
+
+  fclose(ficresvpl);
+
+  /*---------- End : free ----------------*/
+  free_matrix(varpl,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
+  
+  free_ma3x(vareij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
+  free_ma3x(eij,1,nlstate,1,nlstate,(int) bage, (int)fage);
+  
+  
+  free_matrix(pmmij,1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
+  free_matrix(oldms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
+  free_matrix(newms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
+  free_matrix(savms, 1,nlstate+ndeath,1,nlstate+ndeath);
+ 
+  free_matrix(matcov,1,npar,1,npar);
+  free_vector(delti,1,npar);
+  free_matrix(agev,1,maxwav,1,imx);
+  free_ma3x(param,1,nlstate,1, nlstate+ndeath-1,1,ncovmodel);
+  if (mobilav!=0) free_ma3x(mobaverage,1, AGESUP,1,NCOVMAX, 1,NCOVMAX);
+
+  fprintf(fichtm,"\n</body>");
+  fclose(fichtm);
+  fclose(ficgp);
+  
+
+  if(erreur >0){
+    printf("End of Imach with error or warning %d\n",erreur);
+    fprintf(ficlog,"End of Imach with error or warning %d\n",erreur);
+  }else{
+   printf("End of Imach\n");
+   fprintf(ficlog,"End of Imach\n");
+  }
+  printf("See log file on %s\n",filelog);
+  fclose(ficlog);
+  /*  gettimeofday(&end_time, (struct timezone*)0);*/  /* after time */
+  
+  /* printf("Total time was %d Sec. %d uSec.\n", end_time.tv_sec -start_time.tv_sec, end_time.tv_usec -start_time.tv_usec);*/
+  /*printf("Total time was %d uSec.\n", total_usecs);*/
+  /*------ End -----------*/
+
+
+ end:
+#ifdef windows
+  /* chdir(pathcd);*/
+#endif 
+ /*system("wgnuplot graph.plt");*/
+ /*system("../gp37mgw/wgnuplot graph.plt");*/
+ /*system("cd ../gp37mgw");*/
+ /* system("..\\gp37mgw\\wgnuplot graph.plt");*/
+ strcpy(plotcmd,GNUPLOTPROGRAM);
+ strcat(plotcmd," ");
+ strcat(plotcmd,optionfilegnuplot);
+ printf("Starting: %s\n",plotcmd);fflush(stdout);
+ system(plotcmd);
+
+ /*#ifdef windows*/
+  while (z[0] != 'q') {
+    /* chdir(path); */
+    printf("\nType e to edit output files, g to graph again, c to start again, and q for exiting: ");
+    scanf("%s",z);
+    if (z[0] == 'c') system("./imach");
+    else if (z[0] == 'e') system(optionfilehtm);
+    else if (z[0] == 'g') system(plotcmd);
+    else if (z[0] == 'q') exit(0);
+  }
+  /*#endif */
+}
+
+