--- imach096d/src/imach.c 2003/02/05 12:40:38 1.70 +++ imach096d/src/imach.c 2003/03/28 13:33:56 1.72 @@ -1,4 +1,4 @@ -/* $Id: imach.c,v 1.70 2003/02/05 12:40:38 brouard Exp $ +/* $Id: imach.c,v 1.72 2003/03/28 13:33:56 brouard Exp $ Interpolated Markov Chain Short summary of the programme: @@ -83,7 +83,7 @@ #define ODIRSEPARATOR '\\' #endif -char version[80]="Imach version 0.92, February 2003, INED-EUROREVES "; +char version[80]="Imach version 0.93, February 2003, INED-EUROREVES "; int erreur; /* Error number */ int nvar; int cptcovn=0, cptcovage=0, cptcoveff=0,cptcov; @@ -972,11 +972,38 @@ double func( double *x) * is higher than the multiple of stepm and negative otherwise. */ /* lli= (savm[s1][s2]>1.e-8 ?(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]));*/ - lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*(savm[s1][s2])):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2])); /* linear interpolation */ + if( s2 > nlstate){ + /* i.e. if s2 is a death state and if the date of death is known then the contribution + to the likelihood is the probability to die between last step unit time and current + step unit time, which is also the differences between probability to die before dh + and probability to die before dh-stepm . + In version up to 0.92 likelihood was computed + as if date of death was unknown. Death was treated as any other + health state: the date of the interview describes the actual state + and not the date of a change in health state. The former idea was + to consider that at each interview the state was recorded + (healthy, disable or death) and IMaCh was corrected; but when we + introduced the exact date of death then we should have modified + the contribution of an exact death to the likelihood. This new + contribution is smaller and very dependent of the step unit + stepm. It is no more the probability to die between last interview + and month of death but the probability to survive from last + interview up to one month before death multiplied by the + probability to die within a month. Thanks to Chris + Jackson for correcting this bug. Former versions increased + mortality artificially. The bad side is that we add another loop + which slows down the processing. The difference can be up to 10% + lower mortality. + */ + lli=log(out[s1][s2] - savm[s1][s2]); + }else{ + lli= log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*savm[s1][s2]); /* linear interpolation */ + /* lli= (savm[s1][s2]>(double)1.e-8 ?log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]- bbh*(savm[s1][s2])):log((1.+bbh)*out[s1][s2]));*/ /* linear interpolation */ + } /*lli=(1.+bbh)*log(out[s1][s2])- bbh*log(savm[s1][s2]);*/ /*if(lli ==000.0)*/ /*printf("bbh= %f lli=%f savm=%f out=%f %d\n",bbh,lli,savm[s1][s2], out[s[mw[mi][i]][i]][s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]],i); */ - ipmx +=1; + ipmx +=1; sw += weight[i]; ll[s[mw[mi][i]][i]] += 2*weight[i]*lli; } /* end of wave */ @@ -1707,6 +1734,7 @@ void concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int sum=sum+j; /*if (j<0) printf("j=%d num=%d \n",j,i); */ /* printf("%d %d %d %d\n", s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i],j,i);*/ + /*printf("%d %lf %d %d %d\n", i,agev[mw[mi][i]][i],j,s[mw[mi][i]][i] ,s[mw[mi+1][i]][i]);*/ } } else{ @@ -1744,7 +1772,7 @@ void concatwav(int wav[], int **dh, int if(dh[mi][i]==0){ dh[mi][i]=1; /* At least one step */ bh[mi][i]=ju; /* At least one step */ - printf(" bh=%d ju=%d jl=%d dh=%d jk=%d stepm=%d %d\n",bh[mi][i],ju,jl,dh[mi][i],jk,stepm,i); + /* printf(" bh=%d ju=%d jl=%d dh=%d jk=%d stepm=%d %d\n",bh[mi][i],ju,jl,dh[mi][i],jk,stepm,i);*/ } } } /* end if mle */ @@ -2279,10 +2307,10 @@ void varevsij(char optionfilefiname[], d fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\" u 1:(($3+1.96*$4)) t \"95\%% interval\" w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev); fprintf(ficgp,"\n replot \"%s\" u 1:(($3-1.96*$4)) not w l 2 ",fileresprobmorprev); fprintf(fichtm,"\n
File (multiple files are possible if covariates are present): %s\n",fileresprobmorprev,fileresprobmorprev); - fprintf(fichtm,"\n
Probability is computed over estepm=%d months.

\n", estepm,digitp,digit); + fprintf(fichtm,"\n
Probability is computed over estepm=%d months.

\n", estepm,digitp,optionfilefiname,digit); /* fprintf(fichtm,"\n
Probability is computed over estepm=%d months and then divided by estepm and multiplied by %.0f in order to have the probability to die over a year

\n", stepm,YEARM,digitp,digit); */ - fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"varmuptjgr%s%s.png\";replot;",digitp,digit); + fprintf(ficgp,"\nset out \"varmuptjgr%s%s%s.png\";replot;",digitp,optionfilefiname,digit); free_vector(xp,1,npar); free_matrix(doldm,1,nlstate,1,nlstate); @@ -3087,7 +3115,7 @@ prevforecast(char fileres[], double anpr fprintf(ficresf,"\n"); fprintf(ficresf,"\n# Forecasting at date %.lf/%.lf/%.lf ",jproj1,mproj1,anproj1+yearp); - for (agec=fage; agec>=ageminpar; agec--){ + for (agec=fage; agec>=(ageminpar-1); agec--){ nhstepm=(int) rint((agelim-agec)*YEARM/stepm); nhstepm = nhstepm/hstepm; p3mat=ma3x(1,nlstate+ndeath,1, nlstate+ndeath, 0,nhstepm); @@ -3103,11 +3131,11 @@ prevforecast(char fileres[], double anpr } for(j=1; j<=nlstate+ndeath;j++) { ppij=0.; - for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) { + for(i=1; i<=nlstate;i++) { if (mobilav==1) - ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agec+1][i][cptcod]; + ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*mobaverage[(int)agec][i][cptcod]; else { - ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agec+1)][i][cptcod]; + ppij=ppij+p3mat[i][j][h]*probs[(int)(agec)][i][cptcod]; } if (h==(int)(YEARM*yearp)) fprintf(ficresf," %.3f", p3mat[i][j][h]); @@ -3615,7 +3643,11 @@ int main(int argc, char *argv[]) if (s[4][i]==9) s[4][i]=-1; printf("%d %.lf %.lf %.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d %.lf/%.lf %d\n",num[i],(covar[1][i]), (covar[2][i]), (weight[i]), (moisnais[i]), (annais[i]), (moisdc[i]), (andc[i]), (mint[1][i]), (anint[1][i]), (s[1][i]), (mint[2][i]), (anint[2][i]), (s[2][i]), (mint[3][i]), (anint[3][i]), (s[3][i]), (mint[4][i]), (anint[4][i]), (s[4][i]));}*/ + for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) + /*if ((s[3][i]==3) || (s[4][i]==3)) weight[i]=0.08; + else weight[i]=1;*/ + /* Calculation of the number of parameter from char model*/ Tvar=ivector(1,15); /* stores the number n of the covariates in Vm+Vn at 1 and m at 2 */ Tprod=ivector(1,15); @@ -3717,7 +3749,7 @@ int main(int argc, char *argv[]) for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) { agedc[i]=(moisdc[i]/12.+andc[i])-(moisnais[i]/12.+annais[i]); - for(m=1; (m<= maxwav); m++){ + for(m=firstpass; (m<= lastpass); m++){ if(s[m][i] >0){ if (s[m][i] >= nlstate+1) { if(agedc[i]>0) @@ -3760,7 +3792,7 @@ int main(int argc, char *argv[]) } for (i=1; i<=imx; i++) { - for(m=1; (m<= maxwav); m++){ + for(m=firstpass; (m<=lastpass); m++){ if (s[m][i] > (nlstate+ndeath)) { printf("Error: on wave %d of individual %d status %d > (nlstate+ndeath)=(%d+%d)=%d\n",m,i,s[m][i],nlstate, ndeath, nlstate+ndeath); fprintf(ficlog,"Error: on wave %d of individual %d status %d > (nlstate+ndeath)=(%d+%d)=%d\n",m,i,s[m][i],nlstate, ndeath, nlstate+ndeath); @@ -3769,6 +3801,13 @@ int main(int argc, char *argv[]) } } + /*for (i=1; i<=imx; i++){ + for (m=firstpass; (m