Institut national d'études démographiques
Institut national d'études démographiques
(*)Secréraire général du Conseil national de la population du Mexique (CONAPO).
La présentation et la discussion auront lieu en français.
Mexico has undergone a marked fertility decline. From a total fertility rate of about 7 children per women in the early 70s, the current TFR has more than halved, to reach in 1995 a level slightly below 3.0 children. A number of demographic surveys undertaken in 1976, 1982, 1987 and 1992 record in detail many relevant features of this decline. The most recent assessment derives from the National Family Planning Survey conducted in September-November 1995 (ENPF-95, for its Spanish acronym). This survey has several special features. It includes, among other standard individual demographic information, detailed life-history data on pregnancies and births for women between ages 15 to 54, coupled with marriage and union histories (formation and disruption) and interbirth contraceptive use. In addition, it provides results representative at state-level for the nine poorest states of Mexico (mostly the southern states). The sample included a residual 10th region (the rest of the country, in addition to the selected nine states) to produce aggregate national-level results.
The purpose of the talk will be to illustrate some salient traits of fertility decline in Mexico. First, a broad overview is given of the overall decline, followed by a description of mayor differentials by socioeconomic variables and, for 1992 and 1995, regional contrasts. A cursory view will be given to secular changes in contraceptive use and method mix. We then concentrate on some particular results from the 1995 survey. Of interest is the fact that the ENPF-95 marriage and birth histories allow reconstructing secular trends in fertility and family formation/dissolution since about 1975, thus recording 20 years of change in these demographic variables. From the early 80s, Mexico was struck by several severe economic crises occurring in sequence along the years 1982-83 1986 and 1989, ending with the 1995 crisis. Results are presented exploring secular (period) variations that bear relationship with the ups and downs of the economy during the 80s and until 1995.
The results are conjectural and exploratory only, as they do not build on any time-series model linking economic variables and demographic change. Asfor the demographic interrelationships the results derive from models now common in the analysis of event-histories, including aspects on competing risks. The mode of presentation follows the generalization of indirect standardization described by Hoem (Population, 6, 1991, 1551-1568), controlling (when appropriate) for sociodemographic variables such as age, period, parity, marital status, rural/urban residence, women's education and work experience, omong others, and fixing a baseline category in order to facilitate relative-risk comparisons.
The results confirm (not surprisingly) that macroeconomic fluctuations are more neatly echoed by changes in family formation/disruption than by changes in parity progression intensities; however, some traces of systematic fertility fluctuations are noticeable in urban contexts. this last respect is analysed focussing on the determinants of the conditional transitions to have a second, third and fourth births, with emphasis on highlighting yearly period effects.
La discussion sera introduite par Thérèse Locoh (INED-CEPED)..
