Institut national d'études démographiques Institut national d'études démographiques(*) Directeur adjoint du National Institute of Population and Social Security
Conclusion of the paper...
What is the future of Japanese fertility ? In the 1970s and 80s among developped
countries, it seemed to be natural that fertility would decline or remain low if the
modern female contraceptive methods became more prevalent, the commitment to individualism
increased amoung the youth, more women were involved into gain ful employment, ands
children turned intof "consumption goods". In the 90's, however, fertility
in Nordic countries and "Anglo-Saxon" countries were such social changes seem to
be more conspicious has been higher and closer to the replacement level than
fertility in other developed countries. This seeming paradox will be explained probably by
the strong family policies aiming at gender equality in case of Nordic countries and by
the responses taken by private companies, the child care market, the informal sector in
case of Anglo-saxon countries. Also more husbands came to take the role of housekeeping
and child care in both groups of countries.
If such propositions is valid that those developed countries which is closer to a gender
equal society have higher fertility than others, then fertility in Japan is not doomed to
remain low, depending on the extent of policy efforts aiming at egalitarianism, changes in
enployment policies private companies would take, and attitudinal changes of men
and women. But it is uncertain, for the time being, whether the sex-role revolution in
normative sense can occur in Japan where the attitude toward contraception is passive
among women, collectivism is dominant, and very few men take the role of household
chores.
La discussion sera ouverte par H. Leridon (INED)