Jeudi 1er avril 1999 de 14 à 15 heures, salle Alfred Sauvy (1er étage)
Understanding the relative effects of HIV-1 epidemics on men and women
is an important pre-requisite for interpreting surveillance data collected at antenatal
clinics and for understanding the demographic impact of such epidemics.
On the basis of gender differentials in HIV-1 seroprevalence apparent in data collected in
community surveys, it has been suggested that epidemics may typically have a
disproportionate effect on women in sub-Saharan African countries. However, recent
national estimates of adult mortality indicate that, in general, AIDS is having a greater
impact on men. In this paper, we consider whether these two apparently contradictory
findings can be reconciled.
We begin by examining the validity of this contrast. For example, factors such as
differential participation bias in the community surveys, incomparability of the HIV-1 and
mortality indicators, and confounding influences on mortality, could result in conflicting
gender differentials in HIV-1 seroprevalence and adult mortality.
In the second part of the paper, we use mathematical models to illustrate how factors such
as the underlying pattern of sexual behaviour, higher rates of male-to-female than
female-to-male heterosexual transmission, and variations in the length of the survival
period after HIV-1 infection by age at infection, could lead to a period of higher female
seroprevalence but lower female adult mortality.
An illustrative case study based on data from Zimbabwe is presented and the implications
of our findings for national HIV-1 surveillance and the demographic impact of HIV-1
epidemics are discussed.