Tables of reproduction (mortality, fertility and stable population) during the HIV epidemic

Populations africaines et sida

Tables of reproduction (mortality, fertility and stable population) during the HIV epidemic under some hypotheses

Hypotheses before the HIV epidemic Life expectancy=50 years Men 49.00 years, Women 51.00 years (model west) Fertility (african): 6.70 births/woman corresponding to 12.06 births/man conducting to: a net reproduction rate of 2.43 daughters per girl or 3.81 sons per boy a growth rate of 3.41% per year decomposed into 46.7 pre thousand per year for natality and 12.6 for mortality Hypotheses during the epidemic: Prevalence of HIV among population age 15 and over at the stable state=15%, Mother to child transmission =30 %, Mean survival time of an infected adults (incub.+aids)=10 years Mean survival time of an infected new-born (incub.+aids)=2 years Consequences : Life expectancy : 36.04 years (men 35.83, women 36.24) Net reproduction rate : 1.86 daughters/girl Growth rate : 2.48% per year, 49.8 per thousand per year for natality and 25.0 for mortality (both AIDS and non AIDS cases) Crude mortality rate for AIDS is 10.9 per thousand per year from which 2.8 for infected new-borns and 8.0 adults, Prevalence of HIV among pregnant women =18.7 %, Prevalence of HIV among total population =8.3 %,
Men								Women
Age	Pr. of death	Sur- vivors	Deaths	Life expectancy	HIV Prevalence	Stable pop. with HIV	Total stable pop.	Pr. of death	Sur- vivors	Deaths	Life expectancy	Cumul. fertil. due to futures HIV neg. women			HIV+ Prevalence	HIV+ stable pop.	Tot. stable pop.
Age	Qx X100000	lx X100000	d(x,x+1) X100000	ex	yx X10000	yxblx* exp(-rx) p. million	blx exp(-rx) p. million	Qx X100000	lx X100000	d(x,x+1) X100000	ex	- X1000	+ X1000	total - et + X1000
0	14279	100000	14279	35.8	532	2648	49786	12854	100000	12854	36.2	0	0	0	532	2648	49786
1	3854	85721	3303	40.7	323	1343	41630	3954	87146	3446	40.5	0	0	0	323	1366	42322
2	2813	82418	2319	41.3	196	764	39044	2912	83700	2437	41.2	0	0	0	196	776	39652
3	1905	80099	1526	41.5	119	439	37015	1986	81263	1614	41.4	0	0	0	119	446	37553
4	1070	78573	841	41.3	72	255	35419	1119	79649	891	41.2	0	0	0	72	258	35905
5	619	77732	481	40.8	44	149	34181	645	78758	508	40.7	0	0	0	44	151	34632
6	543	77251	419	40.0	26	88	33136	568	78250	445	39.9	0	0	0	26	89	33565
7	480	76832	368	39.2	16	52	32148	506	77805	394	39.2	0	0	0	16	52	32555
8	417	76463	319	38.4	10	30	31209	447	77411	346	38.4	0	0	0	10	31	31596
9	347	76144	264	37.6	6	18	30317	382	77065	294	37.5	0	0	0	6	18	30683
10	292	75880	221	36.7	4	11	29470	329	76771	253	36.7	1	0	1	4	11	29817
11	271	75658	205	35.8	2	6	28664	309	76519	236	35.8	6	0	6	2	6	28990
12	267	75453	202	34.9	1	4	27885	347	76283	265	34.9	23	0	23	24	67	28191
13	280	75251	211	34.0	1	2	27128	505	76018	384	34.0	56	0	57	175	480	27404
14	308	75041	231	33.1	0	1	26389	771	75634	583	33.2	109	2	111	418	1113	26597
15	337	74810	252	32.2	0	1	25662	1087	75051	816	32.4	179	6	185	707	1820	25745
16	393	74558	293	31.3	16	39	24949	1412	74235	1048	31.8	263	12	275	1008	2504	24841
17	532	74265	395	30.4	124	300	24241	1729	73187	1265	31.2	355	22	377	1299	3102	23889
18	755	73869	558	29.6	305	718	23521	2023	71922	1455	30.8	448	34	482	1564	3583	22900
19	1032	73312	756	28.8	531	1210	22770	2286	70467	1611	30.4	539	48	587	1797	3932	21887
20	1319	72555	957	28.1	780	1715	21983	2504	68856	1724	30.1	625	63	688	1991	4153	20862
21	1590	71598	1139	27.5	1035	2189	21161	2675	67132	1796	29.9	705	78	783	2145	4256	19841
22	1852	70460	1305	26.9	1283	2607	20314	2809	65336	1835	29.7	779	93	872	2261	4260	18836
23	2096	69154	1450	26.4	1517	2950	19448	2906	63501	1846	29.5	848	108	956	2341	4181	17858
24	2316	67705	1568	25.9	1730	3214	18574	2972	61656	1832	29.4	912	122	1034	2388	4039	16914
25	2508	66137	1659	25.5	1919	3397	17698	3003	59823	1796	29.3	971	135	1107	2406	3851	16009
26	2673	64478	1723	25.2	2082	3505	16831	3005	58027	1744	29.2	1027	148	1175	2398	3632	15147
27	2813	62755	1766	24.9	2219	3545	15980	2988	56284	1682	29.0	1080	159	1239	2369	3395	14332
28	2930	60989	1787	24.6	2328	3527	15149	2957	54602	1615	28.9	1131	170	1301	2322	3149	13563
29	3023	59202	1790	24.3	2413	3461	14345	2915	52987	1545	28.8	1179	180	1359	2261	2902	12839
30	3105	57413	1782	24.0	2473	3356	13570	2863	51442	1473	28.6	1225	189	1414	2189	2661	12159
31	3172	55630	1765	23.8	2512	3222	12826	2801	49970	1399	28.5	1269	197	1466	2108	2429	11521
32	3215	53865	1732	23.6	2531	3066	12115	2733	48570	1327	28.3	1311	205	1516	2022	2209	10924
33	3235	52133	1686	23.3	2531	2895	11438	2661	47243	1257	28.0	1351	211	1562	1933	2004	10365
34	3234	50447	1631	23.1	2517	2717	10796	2586	45986	1189	27.8	1387	217	1604	1842	1813	9841
35	3235	48816	1579	22.8	2488	2536	10191	2515	44797	1127	27.5	1421	222	1643	1751	1638	9352
36	3241	47236	1531	22.6	2449	2356	9619	2447	43670	1069	27.2	1452	226	1679	1662	1478	8893
37	3231	45705	1477	22.3	2400	2179	9079	2378	42601	1013	26.9	1481	230	1711	1574	1332	8463
38	3207	44228	1419	22.1	2343	2008	8570	2310	41588	961	26.5	1506	233	1739	1490	1201	8059
39	3171	42810	1357	21.8	2280	1845	8092	2242	40628	911	26.2	1528	236	1763	1410	1082	7679
40	3153	41452	1307	21.5	2212	1691	7643	2188	39717	869	25.7	1547	238	1784	1333	976	7323
41	3151	40145	1265	21.2	2141	1546	7221	2147	38848	834	25.3	1563	239	1802	1261	881	6987
42	3133	38881	1218	20.8	2068	1411	6822	2102	38014	799	24.8	1576	241	1817	1194	796	6670
43	3100	37663	1168	20.5	1994	1285	6446	2055	37215	765	24.4	1587	242	1828	1131	720	6369
44	3054	36495	1115	20.1	1920	1170	6093	2004	36450	731	23.9	1595	242	1837	1072	652	6085
45	3038	35380	1075	19.7	1846	1064	5762	1982	35720	708	23.4	1601	243	1843	1018	592	5817
46	3053	34305	1047	19.3	1774	967	5450	1986	35012	695	22.8	1605	243	1848	968	538	5562
47	3057	33258	1017	18.9	1703	877	5154	1985	34316	681	22.3	1608	243	1851	921	490	5318
48	3052	32241	984	18.5	1633	796	4874	1979	33635	666	21.7	1610	243	1853	878	447	5084
49	3036	31257	949	18.1	1566	722	4609	1968	32969	649	21.1	1611	243	1855	838	408	4862
50	3083	30308	935	17.6	1502	655	4360	2022	32320	653	20.5	1612	243	1856	801	372	4649
51	3179	29374	934	17.2	1439	593	4121	2123	31667	672	20.0	1613	244	1857	766	340	4443
52	3243	28440	922	16.7	1379	537	3893	2190	30995	679	19.4	1614	244	1857	732	311	4242
53	3276	27518	901	16.3	1321	485	3674	2225	30316	674	18.8	1614	244	1858	700	283	4048
54	3278	26616	872	15.8	1265	438	3466	2226	29641	660	18.2	1614	244	1858	669	258	3860
55	3354	25744	864	15.3	1210	396	3271	2289	28982	663	17.6	1614	244	1858	639	235	3682
56	3506	24880	872	14.8	1157	357	3083	2420	28318	685	17.0	1614	244	1858	609	214	3509
57	3628	24008	871	14.4	1106	321	2902	2527	27633	698	16.4	1614	244	1858	580	194	3341
58	3719	23137	860	13.9	1055	288	2728	2610	26935	703	15.9	1614	244	1858	550	175	3176
59	3779	22277	842	13.4	1006	258	2563	2668	26232	700	15.3	1614	244	1858	521	157	3017
60	3980	21435	853	12.9	957	230	2405	2867	25532	732	14.7	1614	244	1858	491	141	2865
61	4295	20582	884	12.4	909	205	2253	3171	24800	786	14.1	1614	244	1858	462	125	2715
62	4538	19698	894	12.0	862	181	2103	3398	24013	816	13.5	1614	244	1858	432	111	2564
63	4708	18804	885	11.5	816	160	1959	3549	23198	823	13.0	1614	244	1858	403	97	2416
64	4806	17919	861	11.0	770	140	1821	3624	22374	811	12.4	1614	244	1858	375	85	2273
65	5089	17057	868	10.6	726	123	1691	3865	21564	834	11.9	1614	244	1858	347	74	2137
66	5541	16189	897	10.1	682	107	1565	4270	20730	885	11.4	1614	244	1858	320	64	2004
67	5901	15292	902	9.7	640	92	1442	4598	19845	912	10.8	1614	244	1858	294	55	1871
68	6169	14390	888	9.3	599	79	1324	4849	18932	918	10.3	1614	244	1858	269	47	1742
69	6346	13502	857	8.8	559	68	1212	5025	18014	905	9.8	1614	244	1858	246	40	1617
70	6792	12645	859	8.4	521	58	1107	5482	17109	938	9.3	1614	244	1858	224	33	1498
71	7514	11787	886	8.0	484	49	1006	6203	16171	1003	8.8	1614	244	1858	203	28	1381
72	8156	10901	889	7.6	449	41	908	6830	15168	1036	8.4	1614	244	1858	184	23	1263
73	8719	10012	873	7.2	417	34	813	7365	14132	1041	8.0	1614	244	1858	166	19	1148
74	9205	9139	841	6.9	385	28	724	7808	13091	1022	7.6	1614	244	1858	149	15	1038
75	10031	8298	832	6.5	356	23	642	8557	12069	1033	7.2	1614	244	1858	134	13	933
76	11102	7465	829	6.2	328	18	563	9545	11036	1053	6.8	1614	244	1858	120	10	832
77	11963	6636	794	5.9	303	15	488	10347	9983	1033	6.5	1614	244	1858	108	8	734
78	12619	5843	737	5.6	278	12	419	10967	8950	982	6.1	1614	244	1858	96	6	642
79	13075	5105	668	5.3	256	9	357	11410	7968	909	5.8	1614	244	1858	86	5	558
80	13801	4438	612	5.1	235	7	303	12125	7059	856	5.5	1614	244	1858	77	4	482
81	14834	3825	567	4.8	216	5	255	13132	6203	815	5.2	1614	244	1858	68	3	413
82	15732	3258	513	4.5	198	4	212	13999	5389	754	4.9	1614	244	1858	61	2	350
83	16497	2745	453	4.3	181	3	174	14730	4634	683	4.7	1614	244	1858	54	2	294
84	17133	2292	393	4.1	166	2	142	15329	3952	606	4.4	1614	244	1858	48	1	244
85	18354	1900	349	3.8	151	2	115	16484	3346	552	4.1	1614	244	1858	42	1	202
86	20033	1551	311	3.5	138	1	91	18080	2794	505	3.8	1614	244	1858	38	1	164
87	21410	1240	266	3.3	126	1	71	19390	2289	444	3.5	1614	244	1858	33	0	131
88	22500	975	219	3.0	115	1	55	20425	1845	377	3.2	1614	244	1858	29	0	103
89	23314	755	176	2.8	105	0	41	21197	1468	311	2.9	1614	244	1858	26	0	80
90	24827	579	144	2.5	96	0	31	22665	1157	262	2.6	1614	244	1858	23	0	62
91	26945	435	117	2.1	88	0	23	24730	895	221	2.2	1614	244	1858	20	0	47
92	28686	318	91	1.7	80	0	16	26422	674	178	1.8	1614	244	1858	18	0	34
93	30073	227	68	1.2	73	0	11	27764	496	138	1.2	1614	244	1858	16	0	25

Click to get the reproduction tables before the HIV epidemic

Nicolas Brouard Version 1.2, September 15, 1995